Assortative mating and the reversal of gender inequality in education in europe: an agent-based model

Spousal bereavement and its effects on later life physical and cognitive capability: the Tromsø study

Spousal bereavement is associated with health declines and increased mortality risk, but its specific impact on physical and cognitive capabilities is less studied. A historical cohort study design was applied including married Tromsø study participants (N=5739) aged 50-70 years with baseline self-reported overall health and health-related factors and measured capability (grip strength, finger tapping, digit symbol coding, and short-term recall) at follow-up. Participants had data from Tromsø4 (1994-1995) and Tromsø5 (2001), or Tromsø6 (2007-2008) and Tromsø7 (2015-2016). Propensity score matching, adjusted for baseline confounders (and baseline capability in a subset), was used to investigate whether spousal bereavement was associated with poorer subsequent capability. Spousal bereavement occurred for 6.2% on average 3.7 years (SD 2.0) before the capability assessment. There were no significant bereavement effects on subsequent grip strength, immediate recall, or finger-tapping speed. Without adjustment for baseline digit symbol coding test performance, there was a negative significant effect on the digit symbol coding test (ATT -1.33; 95% confidence interval -2.57, -0.10), but when baseline digit symbol coding test performance was taken into account in a smaller subsample, using the same set of matching confounders, there was no longer any association (in the subsample ATT changed from -1.29 (95% CI -3.38, 0.80) to -0.04 (95% CI -1.83, 1.75). The results in our study suggest that spousal bereavement does not have long-term effects on the intrinsic capacity components physical or cognition capability to a notable degree.

Eight Decades of Educational Assortative Mating: A Research Note

Recent social and economic trends in the United States, including increasing economic inequality, women's growing educational advantage, and the rise of online dating, have ambiguous implications for patterns of educational homogamy. In this research note, we examine changes in educational assortative mating in the United States over the last eight decades (1940 to 2020) using the U.S. decennial censuses and the American Community Survey, extending and expanding earlier work by Schwartz and Mare. We find that the rise in educational homogamy noted by Schwartz and Mare has not continued. Increases in educational homogamy stalled around 1990 and began reversing in the 2000s. We find a growing tendency for marriages to cross educational boundaries, but a college degree remains the strongest dividing line to intermarriage. A key trend explaining this new pattern is women's increasing tendency to marry men with less education than themselves. If not for this trend, homogamy would have continued increasing until the early 2010s. We also show substantial heterogeneity by race, ethnicity, and nativity and among same- versus different-sex couples.

Will narrowing the educational gap between husband and wife alleviate housework inequality: Evidence from China

In the past 20 years, China's educational advantage has undergone a gender reversal. The average educational level of women is higher than that of men. However, the gender difference in housework is gradually expanding, and women are still the main undertakers of housework. Based on the China Family Panel Studies, this study explores the impact of the educational gap between husband and wife on the inequality of housework division and its mechanism. OLS regression model was used to estimate the impact of marital education gap on household inequality. It is concluded that the higher the education level of the husband is than that of the wife, the greater the gender inequality in housework. This conclusion is significant at the level of 0.01. On this basis, the instrumental variable method was used to overcome the endogenous problems and a more accurate conclusion was reached. Every unit of increase in the education gap between husband and wife would increase the degree of household inequality by 0.281 percentage points. Quantile regression provides strong evidence for the results. When the gender time ratio of housework is in the range of 0.8-0.95, the education gap will have an impact on the gender division of housework. After the robustness test and heterogeneity analysis of the model, an intermediary variable was established to discuss the mechanism of the model. The income disparity and the working time gap were proved to be intermediary variables. This study believes that in modern society, the education gap between husband and wife will affect the inequality of housework division by changing the relative income and relative working time of husband and wife. Although the educational advantages of women in the whole society have not changed their role in the division of housework. However, with the narrowing of the educational gap between husband and wife, the degree of inequality in the division of housework has been alleviated, indicating that the improvement of women's education level has alleviated the inequality in the division of housework to a certain extent.

Gender-Egalitarian Attitudes and Assortative Mating by Age and Education

In the last decades, conventional patterns of assortative mating have been challenged by changes in the gender-gap in education. In many countries, educationally hypogamous unions (i.e. the woman is more educated than the man) now outnumber hypergamous unions (i.e. the man is more educated than the woman). The extent to which such structural changes have also been accompanied by gender egalitarian attitudes has not yet been investigated. This paper fills the gap by focusing on both age and educational assortative mating, using data from wave 1 and 2 of the Generations and Gender Surveys for 6 European countries. I investigate the role of gender-role attitudes of single men and women, measured in the first wave, on their age and educational assortative mating outcomes observed in the second wave. To this aim, I applied multinomial logistic regressions, and used as reference outcome category remaining single in the second wave. Compared to non-egalitarian men, I found that men holding gender-egalitarian views are more likely to form hypogamous unions instead of remaining single, in terms of both age and educational assortative mating. Egalitarian women are more likely than non-egalitarian women to form age-hypogamous unions instead of remaining single, but they are less likely to form educationally hypogamous unions. I discuss the implications of these results in relation to the convergence of mating preferences between men and women.

Is It Only a Numbers Game? A Macro-Level Study of Educational Hypogamy

In many countries, the tendency for highly educated women to marry down in education has markedly increased. Research has pointed to an oversupply of highly educated women-that is, a marriage squeeze affecting women-as the core reason for this phenomenon. This study aims to provide a more comprehensive understanding of the causes of this marriage trend by analyzing over-time data drawn from IPUMS International census microdata samples for 34 countries. Several key findings are notable. First, the degree of educational hypogamy is associated with the magnitude of the deficit in college-educated men in the marriage market, which is consistent with the marriage squeeze hypothesis. Second, the degree of educational hypogamy is related to the economic empowerment of college-educated women, even after accounting for the mating squeeze effect. Third, counterfactual simulations show that while the mating squeeze is the major driver of educational hypogamy in the majority of the sample countries, the economic empowerment of college-educated women plays an equally important role in several countries.

Choosing a Major and a Partner: Field of Study and Union Formation Among College-Educated Women in Europe

In this paper, we explore the patterns of assortative mating among college-educated women who graduated from typically female, typically male, or mixed disciplines. Using a set of cross-sectional observations of a single cohort of female graduates (2010) from European Union Labour Force Survey data and applying multilevel multinomial logit models, we estimated the relative risk of living with a college-educated partner (homogamy), living with less educated partner (hypogamy), or being single. Focusing on the first five years after graduation, the analysis demonstrated that field of study is a significant predictor of mating behaviour. Women with degrees in male-dominated fields are less likely to partner down with less educated men. The mating advantage of women from male-dominated fields is stronger in countries with a higher female employment rate. Furthermore, more liberal gender roles seem to increase the level of singlehood among women from male-dominated fields. Finally, women from female-dominated and mixed disciplines are more likely to partner down if the man graduated from a male-typical discipline. However, among women from male-dominated disciplines, such a trade-off was not observed.

Is Two Still Best? Change in Parity-Specific Fertility Across Education in Low-Fertility Countries

The dominance of two-child families is considered an intrinsic characteristic of low fertility societies. Their share was continuously increasing among baby boom cohorts but the rise ceased afterwards. While parity- and education-specific fertility trends during the expansion of the two-child families have been studied, corresponding analyses of developments in the post-expansion birth cohorts are scarce. This study investigates the parity-specific fertility trends that ended the expansion of two-child families across educational groups. We use data on completed fertility of female cohorts born between 1936 and 1970 in 16 low-fertility countries. Besides examining trends in education- and parity-specific fertility, we provide evidence on increasing variation in family size and on the contribution of parity-specific fertility to the share of two child families among women with low, medium and high education. Our results show that the expansion of two-child families stopped as the variation in family size increased: transition rates to first and/or second birth declined whereas those to third birth increased. This polarisation process was strongest among women with low education. Apparently, as the number of women progressing to second birth declined, they became more selected and family-oriented, and thus more likely to progress to further births. The fact that the strongest polarisation of fertility was observed among the low educated reflects the group’s increasing selectivity. We demonstrate that rising polarisation of family size is a common development to most high-income low-fertility populations, especially among the low educated, regardless of substantial cross-country differences in fertility levels as well as in institutional, economic and cultural settings.

An Agent-Based Model for Tertiary Educational Choices in Italy

Although the low level of tuition fees and the absence of other access barriers, Italy is characterized by low educational attainments at the university level. This work models the choice of young Italians to attend university or leave education and enter the labor market, by making use of an agent-based model that reproduces the Italian higher education and policy system. The aim is to analyze the determinants behind university enrollment decisions possibly causing the low level of attainment and explore three alternative scenarios that propose the expansion of financial support and the increase in the average income gap between skilled and unskilled individuals. The model implies that the individual preference to enroll at university depends upon (i) economic motivations, represented by the expectations on future income, which are formed through interaction within individuals' social network; (ii) influence from peers; (iii) effort of obtaining a university degree. Results show that the model can reproduce observable features of the Italian system, and highlights low income levels and the following full resort to regional scholarships. Experimented scenarios show that policies expanding financial support to education are ineffective, while an increase in the gap between average income of skilled and unskilled workers leads to an increase in enrollment in university, signaling that labor market policies may be more effective than educational policies in raising the number of students in higher education.

More of the Same? Comparing the Personalities of Ex-Spouse and New Partner after Divorce

The similarity of the Big Five personality traits of ex-spouses and new partners was examined post-divorce. The notion that divorcees replicate their partner choice (fixed-type hypothesis) was tested against the hypotheses that they learn to select a new partner with more marriage-stabilizing personality traits than their former spouse (learning hypothesis), or are constrained by marriage market forces to repartner with someone who has less stabilizing personality traits (marriage market hypothesis). Data was derived from a Flemish study that sampled divorcees from the national register. The sample consisted of 700 triads of divorcees, their ex-spouses, and their new partners. The analysis results rejected the fixed-type hypothesis and instead supported both the learning hypothesis and the marriage market hypothesis, with higher order repartnering supporting the latter. Women also seemed to validate both hypotheses, as their partner comparison showed decreases in both stabilizing traits (conscientiousness and agreeableness) and destabilizing traits (neuroticism and extraversion). Overall, the results seem to suggest that divorcees do not repartner with someone of the same personality as their ex-spouse, and they are in some cases constrained by marriage market forces to repartner with less stabilizing personalities, while in other cases they are able to improve their partner selection.

Mating Market and Dynamics of Union Formation

The paper investigates the relationship between structural partner market constraints and the timing and educational sorting of unions in Germany (1985–2018). We integrate the literature on the effect of the reversed gender gap in education on educational assortative mating, with a focus on mating dynamics and the measurement of the partner market over the life course. We concentrate on two particular educational groups, low-educated men and highly educated women, those with worsening mating prospects and more subject to experience hypogamous unions. Our results show that the local education-specific mating squeeze influences union formation, its timing, and educational sorting. Indeed, for the two groups, the increasing supply of highly educated women in the partner market increases the likelihood of remaining single or establishing an hypogamous union, where she is higher educated than he. In line with search theory, we find the effects of the mating squeeze to become particularly visible after people turn 30 years of age. This is true for the risk of remaining single and forming an hypogamous union. We underline the necessity to study assortative mating and union formation from a dynamic perspective, taking into account changing structural conditions during the partner search process.

Advances in the agent-based modeling of economic and social behavior

In this review we discuss advances in the agent-based modeling of economic and social systems. We show the state of the art of the heuristic design of agents and how behavioral economics and laboratory experiments have improved the modeling of agent behavior. We further discuss how economic networks and social systems can be modeled and we discuss novel methodology and data sources. Lastly, we present an overview of estimation techniques to calibrate and validate agent-based models and show avenues for future research.

Change in prevalence or preference? Trends in educational homogamy in six European countries in a time of educational expansion

This paper analyzes trends in educational homogamy in six European countries (Sweden, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Poland, Hungary, and Italy). We use vital statistics on all marriages contracted between 1990 and 2016. Absolute educational homogamy increases in all countries (very moderately in the Czech Republic and Italy), it changes its structure, and the absolute educational hypogamy of women increases. The trends over time and among countries in relative educational homogamy are tested using log-linear and log-multiplicative models. We expand a regression-type layer effect model (the Goodman-Hout model) into a four-way table. The results indicate differing assortative mating by educational categories. Relative homogamy decreases in tertiary education. In lower educational categories, relative homogamy increases. We present the hypothesis that a decrease in relative homogamy in tertiary education is a consequence of the rise of social homogamy. We conceptualize this homogamy balance as a "complementary maintained homogamy." Because changes in relative educational homogamies are the same in all countries, the cross-country differences remain constant over time. We conceptualize this as a "maintained flux." The European countries are not in convergence, even though the relative homogamies delineated by educational categories change.

The Gender Cliff in the Relative Contribution to the Household Income: Insights from Modelling Marriage Markets in 27 European Countries

In Western countries, the distribution of relative incomes within marriages tends to be skewed in a remarkable way. Husbands usually do not only earn more than their female partners, but there is also a striking discontinuity in their relative contributions to the household income at the 50/50 point: many wives contribute just a bit less than or as much as their husbands, but few contribute more. This 'cliff' has been interpreted as evidence that men and women avoid situations where a wife would earn more than her husband, since this would go against traditional gender norms. In this paper, we use a simulation approach to model marriage markets and demonstrate that a cliff in the relative income distribution can also emerge without such avoidance. We feed our simulations with income data from 27 European countries. Results show that a cliff can emerge from inequalities in men's and women's average incomes, even if they do not attach special meaning to a situation in which a wife earns more than her husband.

Partners' Educational Characteristics and Fertility: Disentangling the Effects of Earning Potential and Unemployment Risk on Second Births

This study investigates the link between the educational characteristics of partners in heterosexual relationships and their transition to second births, accounting for the selection into parenthood by fitting multi-level event history models. We compare the fertility of Beckerian unions characterized by gender-role specialization with the fertility of dual-earner couples, characterized by the pooling of incomes. Focusing on the economic aspect of the educational degree, in a first step, we estimate the earning potential and unemployment risks by field and level of education, country and sex using European Labour Force Surveys. Next, we link these results with Generation and Gender Survey data from six countries and model couples' transition to second births. We find evidence in support of both the pooling of resources family model (notably in Belgium) and the Beckerian gender-role specialization model. The effects of the earning potential and unemployment risk attached to his and her field of education tends to vary by country context.

The Emergence of Educational Hypogamy in India

With rising education among women across the world, educational hypergamy (women marrying men with higher education) has decreased over the last few decades in both developed and developing countries. Although a decrease in hypergamy is often accompanied by increasing homogamy (women marrying men with equal levels of education), our analyses for India based on a nationally representative survey of India (the India Human Development Survey), document a considerable rise in hypogamy (women marrying partners with lower education) during the past four decades. Log-linear analyses further reveal that declining hypergamy is largely generated by the rise in education levels, whereas hypogamous marriages continue to increase even after marginal distributions are taken into account. Further multivariate analyses show that highly educated women tend to marry men with lower education but from more privileged families. Moreover, consanguineous marriages, which exemplify strong cultural constraints on spousal selection in certain parts of India, are more likely to be hypogamous than marriages not related by blood. We argue that the rise in hypogamous marriage by education paradoxically reflects deep-rooted gender scripts in India given that other salient social boundaries are much more difficult to cross.

Sex and gender differences in Alzheimer's disease: current challenges and implications for clinical practice: Position paper of the Dementia and Cognitive Disorders Panel of the European Academy of Neurology

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is characterized by high heterogeneity in disease manifestation, progression and risk factors. High phenotypic variability is currently regarded as one of the largest hurdles in early diagnosis and in the design of clinical trials; there is therefore great interest in identifying factors driving variability that can be used for patient stratification. In addition to genetic and lifestyle factors, the individual's sex and gender are emerging as crucial drivers of phenotypic variability. Evidence exists on sex and gender differences in the rate of cognitive deterioration and brain atrophy, and in the effect of risk factors as well as in the patterns of diagnostic biomarkers. Such evidence might be of high relevance and requires attention in clinical practice and clinical trials. However, sex and gender differences are currently seldom appreciated; importantly, consideration of sex and gender differences is not currently a focus in the design and analysis of clinical trials for AD. The objective of this position paper is (i) to provide an overview of known sex and gender differences that might have implications for clinical practice, (ii) to identify the most important knowledge gaps in the field (with a special regard to clinical trials) and (iii) to provide conclusions for future studies. This scientific statement is endorsed by the European Academy of Neurology.

Intramarital Status Differences across Africa's Educational Expansion

OBJECTIVE

This paper documents how intra-marital differences in educational status vary across Africa's heterogeneous educational expansion, which has encompassed an enormous breadth of educational opportunities over the past 50 years.

BACKGROUND

Educational expansion influences intra-marital status differences both by altering the educational composition of men and women and by reconfiguring the social conventions associated with a given educational context. Status differentials between marital partners can influence spousal wellbeing and, in the aggregate, determine the extent to which marriage provides a pathway to upward social mobility.

METHOD

Using Demographic and Health Survey data representing 32 sub-Saharan African countries and 5 decades of birth cohorts, the paper examines the prevalence and propensity of educational pairings as a function of educational access (the percentage of a cohort who ever attended school) and wife's education level.

RESULTS

Educational expansion created gendered changes in educational compositions of married individuals, which led to increased prevalence of hypergamy (wives who married "up") in most countries. Educational expansion has also led hypogamous marriages to become less of a social aberration: in lower-education contexts (but less so in higher-education contexts), conventions lead women to "marry down" at far lower rates than would be expected based on the sex-specific compositions of husbands and wives.

CONCLUSION

Educational attainment remains a central determinant of social positioning in African society. However, as schooling expands across the continent, social conventions regarding educational status are playing a weakening role in determining who marries whom.

Does Gender Influence the Relationship Between High Blood Pressure and Dementia? Highlighting Areas for Further Investigation

BACKGROUND

Gender differences have been noted in studies linking blood pressure to all-cause dementia, and the two most common forms of dementia: Alzheimer's disease (AD) and vascular dementia (VaD). However, how gender modifies the relationship between blood pressure and dementia remains unclear.

OBJECTIVE

To review evidence for a gender modifying effect on the link between blood pressure and all-cause dementia.

METHODS

A systematic review was conducted according to PRISMA guidelines. Sixteen out of 256 reviewed articles met inclusion criteria.

RESULTS

For women, higher midlife systolic blood pressure (SBP) and hypertension were both associated with greater risk of all-cause dementia, AD, and VaD, in six out of seven studies. Two of these studies reported higher midlife SBP/hypertension were associated with greater risk for all-cause dementia in women, but not men. One study reported higher midlife SBP associated with greater AD risk in women, but not men. However, another study reported that midlife hypertension associated with AD risk in men, but not women. No clear gender differences were reported in the relationship between late-life high blood pressure/hypertension with all-cause dementia or AD.

CONCLUSION

Studies rarely, and inconsistently, analyzed or reported gender effects. Therefore, interpretation of available evidence regarding the role of gender in blood pressure associated dementia was difficult. Several studies indicated higher midlife SBP was associated with greater risk of all-cause dementia for women, compared to men. Future studies should evaluate women-specific aging processes that occur in midlife when considering the association between blood pressure and dementia risk.

Unequal Associations between Educational Attainment and Occupational Stress across Racial and Ethnic Groups

Background: Although other mechanisms are also involved, at least one reason high educational attainment (EA) is associated with better health is lower employment stress in individuals with high EA. Minorities’ Diminished Returns, however, refer to the smaller protective health effects of EA for racial- and ethnic-minority individuals, particularly African Americans (AAs) and Hispanics, as compared to Whites. We are, however, not aware of many studies that have explored differential associations between EA and work-related stress across racial and ethnic groups. Aims: We aimed to compare racial and ethnic groups for the association between EA and occupational stress in a national sample of American adults. Methods: The National Health Interview Survey (NHIS 2015), a cross-sectional survey, included 15,726 employed adults. Educational attainment was the independent variable. Occupational stress was the outcome. Race and ethnicity were the moderators. Age, gender, number of jobs, and years in the job were the covariates. Results: Overall, higher EA was associated with lower levels of occupational stress. Race and ethnicity both interacted with EA, suggesting that the association between high EA and reduced occupational stress is systemically smaller for AAs and Hispanics than it is for Whites. Conclusions: In the United States, race and ethnicity limit the health gains that follow EA. While EA helps individuals avoid environmental risk factors, such as occupational stress, this is more valid for non-Hispanic Whites than AAs and Hispanics. The result is additional physical and mental health risks in highly educated AAs and Hispanics. The results are important, given racial and ethnic minorities are the largest growing section of the US population. We should not assume that EA is similarly protective across all racial and ethnic groups. In this context, EA may increase, rather than reduce, health disparities.

Decomposing patterns of college marital sorting in 118 countries: Structural constraints versus assortative mating

Two broad forces shape the patterns of marital sorting by education: structural constraints and assortative mating. However, we lack specific and comparative quantification of the extent of these two forces. In this paper, we measure the specific contributions of (i) assortative mating, (ii) the level of college education and (iii) the gender gap in education on marital sorting patterns and the corresponding polarization levels between college and non-college educated couples. Unlike previous studies, we adopt a large-cross-national approach including 118 countries and more than 258 observations spanning from 1960 up to 2011. Methodologically, we develop counterfactual modelling techniques to compare observed patterns of marital sorting with expected patterns derived from alternative structural and assortative mating conditions. Our findings indicate that changes in college marital sorting and increases in polarization between college- and non-college-educated populations are overwhelmingly driven by structural constraints, namely the expansion of college education. Instead, educational assortative mating plays a limited role - accounting only for 5% of the observed changes in marriage market polarization.

Partners' Educational Pairings and Fertility Across Europe

We provide new evidence on the education-fertility relationship by using EU-SILC panel data on 24 European countries to investigate how couples' educational pairings predict their childbearing behavior. We focus on differences in first-, second-, and third-birth rates among couples with varying combinations of partners' education. Our results show important differences in how education relates to parity progressions depending on the education of the partner. First, highly educated homogamous couples show a distinct childbearing behavior in most country clusters. They tend to postpone the first birth most and display the highest second- and third-birth rates. Second, contrary to what may be expected based on the "new home economics" approach, hypergamous couples with a highly educated male and a lower-educated female partner display among the lowest second-birth transitions. Our findings underscore the relevance of interacting both partners' education for a better understanding of the education-fertility relationship.

His and Her Education and Marital Dissolution: Adding a Contextual Dimension

Educationally hypogamous marriages, where the wife is more educated than the husband, have been expected to be less stable than other educational pairings, in part because they do not conform to social norms. With the reversal of the gender gap in education, such marriages have become more common than in the past. Recent research suggests that this new context might be beneficial for the stability of hypogamous unions compared to other educational pairings. Here, we investigate how educational matches in married couples are associated with divorce risks taking into account the local prevalence of hypogamy. Using Belgian census and register data for 458,499 marriages contracted between 1986 and 2001, we show that hypogamy was not associated with higher divorce rates than homogamy in communities where hypogamy was common. Against expectations, marriages in which the husband was more educated than the wife tend to exhibit the highest divorce rates. More detailed analysis of the different types of educational matches revealed that marriages with at least one highly educated partner, male or female, were less divorce prone compared to otherwise similar couple types.

His and Her Education and Marital Dissolution: Adding a Contextual Dimension

Educationally hypogamous marriages, where the wife is more educated than the husband, have been expected to be less stable than other educational pairings, in part because they do not conform to social norms. With the reversal of the gender gap in education, such marriages have become more common than in the past. Recent research suggests that this new context might be beneficial for the stability of hypogamous unions compared to other educational pairings. Here, we investigate how educational matches in married couples are associated with divorce risks taking into account the local prevalence of hypogamy. Using Belgian census and register data for 458,499 marriages contracted between 1986 and 2001, we show that hypogamy was not associated with higher divorce rates than homogamy in communities where hypogamy was common. Against expectations, marriages in which the husband was more educated than the wife tend to exhibit the highest divorce rates. More detailed analysis of the different types of educational matches revealed that marriages with at least one highly educated partner, male or female, were less divorce prone compared to otherwise similar couple types.

The reversal of the gender gap in education and relative divorce risks: A matter of alternatives in partner choice?

Recent evidence from the United States suggests that the reversal of the gender gap in education was associated with changes in relative divorce risks: hypogamous marriages, where the wife was more educated than the husband, used to have a higher divorce risk than hypergamous marriages, where the husband was more educated, but this difference has disappeared. One interpretation holds that this may result from cultural change, involving increasing social acceptance of hypogamy. We propose an alternative mechanism that need not presuppose cultural change: the gender-gap reversal in education has changed the availability of alternatives from which highly educated women and men can choose new partners. This may have lowered the likelihood of women leaving husbands with less education and encouraged men to leave less educated spouses. We applied an agent-based model to twelve European national marriage markets to illustrate that this could be sufficient to create a convergence in divorce risks.

Educational Pairings, Motherhood, and Women's Relative Earnings in Europe

As a consequence of the reversal of the gender gap in education, the female partner in a couple now typically has as much as or more education compared with the male partner in most Western countries. This study addresses the implications for the earnings of women relative to their male partners in 16 European countries. Using the 2007 and 2011 rounds of the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (N = 58,292), we investigate the extent to which international differences in women's relative earnings can be explained by educational pairings and their interaction with the motherhood penalty on women's earnings, by international differences in male unemployment, or by cultural gender norms. We find that the newly emerged pattern of hypogamy is associated with higher relative earnings for women in all countries and that the motherhood penalty on relative earnings is considerably lower in hypogamous couples, but neither of these findings can explain away international country differences. Similarly, male unemployment is associated with higher relative earnings for women but cannot explain away the country differences. Against expectations, we find that the hypogamy bonus on women's relative earnings, if anything, tends to be stronger rather than weaker in countries that exhibit more conservative gender norms.

Education and the Transition to Fatherhood: The Role of Selection Into Union

Although advanced education has been found to be consistently associated with a later transition to parenthood for women, findings about education and the transition to parenthood have been much less consistent for men, and no stylized fact has emerged from the literature. We argue that the inconsistency of findings for men is due to the fact that the selection process involved in union formation has been disregarded in earlier studies. We hypothesize that men's educational attainment consistently and positively affects the transition to fatherhood via higher rates of union formation. We apply multiprocess event-history analysis to data from the Generations and Gender Surveys for 10 European countries. Our results show indeed a consistent positive effect of education on the transition to fatherhood, but it operates chiefly through selection into union. Failing to account for this selection process leads to a major underestimation of the salience of education for the transition to fatherhood.

The Dynamics of Son Preference, Technology Diffusion, and Fertility Decline Underlying Distorted Sex Ratios at Birth: A Simulation Approach

We present a micro-founded simulation model that formalizes the "ready, willing, and able" framework, originally used to explain historical fertility decline, to the practice of prenatal sex selection. The model generates sex ratio at birth (SRB) distortions from the bottom up and attempts to quantify plausible levels, trends, and interactions of son preference, technology diffusion, and fertility decline that underpin SRB trajectories at the macro level. Calibrating our model for South Korea, we show how even as the proportion with a preference for sons was declining, SRB distortions emerged due to rapid diffusion of prenatal sex determination technology combined with small but growing propensities to abort at low birth parities. Simulations reveal that relatively low levels of son preference (about 20 % to 30 % wanting one son) can result in skewed SRB levels if technology diffuses early and steadily, and if fertility falls rapidly to encourage sex-selective abortion at low parities. Model sensitivity analysis highlights how the shape of sex ratio trajectories is particularly sensitive to the timing and speed of prenatal sex-determination technology diffusion. The maximum SRB levels reached in a population are influenced by how the readiness to abort rises as a function of the fertility decline.

Multistate modelling extended by behavioural rules: An application to migration

We propose to extend demographic multistate models by adding a behavioural element: behavioural rules explain intentions and thus transitions. Our framework is inspired by the Theory of Planned Behaviour. We exemplify our approach with a model of migration from Senegal to France. Model parameters are determined using empirical data where available. Parameters for which no empirical correspondence exists are determined by calibration. Age- and period-specific migration rates are used for model validation. Our approach adds to the toolkit of demographic projection by allowing for shocks and social influence, which alter behaviour in non-linear ways, while sticking to the general framework of multistate modelling. Our simulations yield that higher income growth in Senegal leads to higher emigration rates in the medium term, while a decrease in fertility yields lower emigration rates.

The Reversed Gender Gap in Education and Assortative Mating in Europe

While in the past men received more education than women, the gender gap in education has turned around: in recent years, more highly educated women than highly educated men are reaching the reproductive ages. Using data from the European Social Survey (rounds 1-6), we investigate the implications of this reversed gender gap for educational assortative mating. We fit multilevel multinomial regression models to predict the proportions of men and women living with a partner of a given level of education, contingent on respondents' own educational attainment and on the cohort-specific sex ratio among the population with tertiary education at the country level. We find that highly educated women tend to partner more often "downwards" with less educated men, rather than remaining single more often. Medium educated women are found to partner less often "upwards" with highly educated men. For men, there is no evidence that they are more likely to partner with highly educated women. Rather, they are found to be living single more often. In sum, women's advantage in higher education has affected mating patterns in important ways: while women previously tended to form unions with men who were at least as highly educated as themselves, they now tend to live with men who are at most as highly educated. Along the way, advanced education became a bonus on the mating market for women as well as for men.

The End of Hypergamy: Global Trends and Implications

The gender gap in education that has long favored men has reversed for young adults in almost all high and middle-income countries. In 2010, the proportion of women aged 25-29 with a college education was higher than that of men in more than 139 countries which altogether represent 86% of the world's population. According to recent population forecasts, women will have more education than men in nearly every country in the world by 2050, with the exception of only a few African and West Asian countries (KC et al. 2010). The reversal of the gender gap in education has major implications for the composition of marriage markets, assortative mating, gender equality, and marital outcomes such as divorce and childbearing (Van Bavel 2012). In this work, we focus on its implications for trends in assortative mating and, in particular, for educational hypergamy: the pattern in which husbands have more education than their wives. This represents a substantial update to previous studies (Esteve et al. 2012) in terms of the number of countries and years included in the analysis. We present findings from an almost comprehensive world-level analysis using census and survey microdata from 420 samples and 120 countries spanning from 1960 to 2011, which allow us to assert that the reversal of the gender gap in education is strongly associated with the end of hypergamy and increases in hypogamy (wives have more education that their husbands). We not only provide near universal evidence of this trend but extend our analysis to consider the implications of the end of hypergamy for family dynamics, outcomes and gender equality. We draw on European microdata to examine whether women are more likely to be the breadwinners when they marry men with lower education than themselves and discuss recent research regarding divorce risks among hypogamous couples. We close our analysis with an examination of attitudes about women earning more money than their husbands and about the implications for children when a woman works for pay.