The Influence of Data Resolution on Predicted Distribution and Estimates of Extent of Current Protection of Three 'Listed' Deep-Sea Habitats

Filling the data gaps: Transferring models from data-rich to data-poor deep-sea areas to support spatial management

Spatial management of the deep sea is challenging due to limited available data on the distribution of species and habitats to support decision making. In the well-studied North Atlantic, predictive models of species distribution and habitat suitability have been used to fill data gaps and support sustainable management. In the South Atlantic and other poorly studied regions, this is not possible due to a massive lack of data. In this study, we investigated whether models constructed in data-rich areas can be used to inform data-poor regions (with otherwise similar environmental conditions). We used a novel model transfer approach to identify to what extent a habitat suitability model for Desmophyllum pertusum reef, built in a data-rich basin (North Atlantic), could be transferred usefully to a data-poor basin (South Atlantic). The transferred model was built using the Maximum Entropy algorithm and constructed with 227 presence and 3064 pseudo-absence points, and 200 m resolution environmental grids. Performance in the transferred region was validated using an independent dataset of D. pertusum presences and absences, with assessments made using both threshold-dependent and -independent metrics. We found that a model for D. pertusum reef fitted to North Atlantic data transferred reasonably well to the South Atlantic basin, with an area under the curve of 0.70. Suitable habitat for D. pertusum reef was predicted on 20 of the assessed 27 features including seamounts. Nationally managed Marine Protected Areas provide significant protection for D. pertusum reef habitat in the region, affording full protection from bottom trawling to 14 of the 20 suitable features. In areas beyond national jurisdiction (ABNJ), we found four seamounts that provided suitable habitat for D. pertusum reef to be at least partially protected from bottom trawling, whilst two did not fall within fisheries closures. There are factors to consider when developing models for transfer including data resolution and predictor type. Nevertheless, the promising results of this application demonstrate that model transfer approaches stand to provide significant contributions to spatial planning processes through provision of new, best available data. This is particularly true for ABNJ and areas that have previously undergone little scientific exploration such as the global south.

Climate Mitigation through Biological Conservation: Extensive and Valuable Blue Carbon Natural Capital in Tristan da Cunha's Giant Marine Protected Zone

Simple Summary

Solving biodiversity loss and climate change are part of the same problem; intact natural habitats can provide powerful and efficient climate mitigation if protected. Beyond the land (forests), there is little appreciation of just how important ocean nature is to climate mitigation. Carbon captured, stored and the rate at which it is buried (sequestration) by marine organisms is called blue carbon. We measured how much blue carbon occurs around the remote islands and seamounts of the Tristan da Cunha archipelago Marine Protected Zone (MPZ). We estimated that there are 300 tonnes of carbon (tC) captured in seaweed biomass each year, a proportion of which will sink and become a part of the long-term sediment carbon store. In deeper water we found a standing stock of ~2.3 million tC in the shallowest 1000 m depths, of which equivalent to 0.8 million t of carbon dioxide has the potential to be sequestered. At current carbon prices, and were it to attract blue carbon credits, £24 million worth of blue carbon can potentially be sequestered from the standing stock of this small United Kingdom Overseas Territory. This standing stock is protected and growth could, therefore, generate an additional £3.5 million worth of sequestered carbon a year, making it an unrecognized major component of the local economy. The economic return on this example MPZ probably ranks highly amongst climate mitigation schemes. The message is that placing meaningful protection to carbon-rich natural habitats can massively help society fight climate change and biodiversity loss. Nations who provide this protection should be fairly compensated, particularly where it comes at the detriment of other economic uses of marine habitats.

Abstract

Carbon-rich habitats can provide powerful climate mitigation if meaningful protection is put in place. We attempted to quantify this around the Tristan da Cunha archipelago Marine Protected Area. Its shallows (<1000 m depth) are varied and productive. The 5.4 km² of kelp stores ~60 tonnes of carbon (tC) and may export ~240 tC into surrounding depths. In deep-waters we analysed seabed data collected from three research cruises, including seabed mapping, camera imagery, seabed oceanography and benthic samples from mini-Agassiz trawl. Rich biological assemblages on seamounts significantly differed to the islands and carbon storage had complex drivers. We estimate ~2.3 million tC are stored in benthic biodiversity of waters <1000 m, which includes >0.22 million tC that can be sequestered (the proportion of the carbon captured that is expected to become buried in sediment or locked away in skeletal tissue for at least 100 years). Much of this carbon is captured by cold-water coral reefs as a mixture of inorganic (largely calcium carbonate) and organic compounds. As part of its 2020 Marine Protection Strategy, these deep-water reef systems are now protected by a full bottom-trawling ban throughout Tristan da Cunha and representative no take areas on its seamounts. This small United Kingdom Overseas Territory’s reef systems represent approximately 0.8 Mt CO₂ equivalent sequestered carbon; valued at >£24 Million GBP (at the UN shadow price of carbon). Annual productivity of this protected standing stock generates an estimated £3 million worth of sequestered carbon a year, making it an unrecognized and potentially major component of the economy of small island nations like Tristan da Cunha. Conservation of near intact habitats are expected to provide strong climate and biodiversity returns, which are exemplified by this MPA.

Seagrass habitat suitability model for Redang Marine Park using multibeam echosounder data: Testing different spatial resolutions and analysis window sizes

Integrating Multibeam Echosounder (MBES) data (bathymetry and backscatter) and underwater video technology allows scientists to study marine habitats. However, use of such data in modeling suitable seagrass habitats in Malaysian coastal waters is still limited. This study tested multiple spatial resolutions (1 and 50 m) and analysis window sizes (3 × 3, 9 × 9, and 21 × 21 cells) probably suitable for seagrass-habitat relationships in Redang Marine Park, Terengganu, Malaysia. A maximum entropy algorithm was applied, using 12 bathymetric and backscatter predictors to develop a total of 6 seagrass habitat suitability models. The results indicated that both fine and coarse spatial resolution datasets could produce models with high accuracy (>90%). However, the models derived from the coarser resolution dataset displayed inconsistent habitat suitability maps for different analysis window sizes. In contrast, habitat models derived from the fine resolution dataset exhibited similar habitat distribution patterns for three different analysis window sizes. Bathymetry was found to be the most influential predictor in all the models. The backscatter predictors, such as angular range analysis inversion parameters (characterization and grain size), gray-level co-occurrence texture predictors, and backscatter intensity levels, were more important for coarse resolution models. Areas of highest habitat suitability for seagrass were predicted to be in shallower (<20 m) waters and scattered between fringing reefs (east to south). Some fragmented, highly suitable habitats were also identified in the shallower (<20 m) areas in the northwest of the prediction models and scattered between fringing reefs. This study highlighted the importance of investigating the suitable spatial resolution and analysis window size of predictors from MBES for modeling suitable seagrass habitats. The findings provide important insight on the use of remote acoustic sonar data to study and map seagrass distribution in Malaysia coastal water.

Sediment Identification Using Machine Learning Classifiers in a Mixed-Texture Dredge Pit of Louisiana Shelf for Coastal Restoration

Machine learning classifiers have been rarely used for the identification of seafloor sediment types in the rapidly changing dredge pits for coastal restoration. Our study uses multiple machine learning classifiers to identify the sediment types of the Caminada dredge pit in the eastern part of the submarine sandy Ship Shoal of the Louisiana inner shelf of the United States (USA), and compares the performance of multiple supervised classification methods. High-resolution bathymetry and backscatter data, as well as 58 sediment grab samples were collected in the Caminada pit in August 2018, about two years after dredging. Two primary features (bathymetry and backscatter) and four secondary features were selected in the machine learning models. Three supervised classifications were tested in the study area: Decision Trees, Random Forest, and Regularized Logistic Regression. The models were trained using three different combinations of features: (1) all six features, (2) only bathymetry and backscatter features, and (3) a subset of selected features. The best performing model was the Random Forest method, but its performance was relatively poor when dealing with a few mixed (sand and mud) surficial sediment samples. The model provides a new and efficient method to predict the change of sediment distribution inside the Caminada pit over time, and is more reliable when predicting mixed bed with rough pit bottoms. Our results can be used to better understand the impacts on biological communities by (1) direct defaunation after initial sand excavation, (2) later mud accumulation in topographic lows, and (3) other geological and physical processes. In the future, the deposition and redistribution of mud inside the Caminada pit will continue, likely impacting benthos and water quality. Backscatter, roughness derived from bathymetry, rugosity derived from backscatter, and bathymetry (in the importance order from high to low) were identified as the most effective predictors of sediment texture for mineral resources management.

Generating higher resolution regional seafloor maps from crowd-sourced bathymetry

Seafloor mapping can offer important insights for marine management, spatial planning, and research in marine geology, ecology, and oceanography. Here, we present a method for generating regional bathymetry and geomorphometry maps from crowd-sourced depth soundings (Olex AS) for a small fraction of the cost of multibeam data collection over the same area. Empirical Bayesian Kriging was used to generate a continuous bathymetric surface from incomplete and, in some areas, sparse Olex coverage on the Newfoundland and Labrador shelves of eastern Canada. The result is a 75m bathymetric grid that provides over 100x finer spatial resolution than previously available for the majority of the 672,900 km² study area. The interpolated bathymetry was tested for accuracy against independent depth data provided by Fisheries and Oceans Canada (Spearman correlation = 0.99, p<0.001). Quantitative terrain attributes were generated to better understand seascape characteristics at multiple spatial scales, including slope, rugosity, aspect, and bathymetric position index. Landform classification was carried out using the geomorphons algorithm and a novel method for the identification of previously unmapped tributary canyons at the continental shelf edge are also presented to illustrate some of many potential benefits of crowd-sourced regional seafloor mapping.

Predicted distribution of the glass sponge Vazella pourtalesi on the Scotian Shelf and its persistence in the face of climatic variability

Emerald Basin on the Scotian Shelf off Nova Scotia, Canada, is home to a globally unique aggregation of the glass sponge Vazella pourtalesi, first documented in the region in 1889. In 2009, Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) implemented two Sponge Conservation Areas to protect these sponge grounds from bottom fishing activities. Together, the two conservation areas encompass 259 km2. In order to ascertain the degree to which the sponge grounds remain unprotected, we modelled the presence probability and predicted range distribution of V. pourtalesi on the Scotian Shelf using random forest modelling on presence-absence records. With a high degree of accuracy the random forest model predicted the highest probability of occurrence of V. pourtalesi in the inner basins on the central Scotian Shelf, with lower probabilities at the shelf break and in the Fundian and Northeast Channels. Bottom temperature was the most important determinant of its distribution in the model. Although the two DFO Sponge Conservation Areas protect some of the more significant concentrations of V. pourtalesi, much of its predicted distribution remains unprotected (over 99%). Examination of the hydrographic conditions in Emerald Basin revealed that the V. pourtalesi sponge grounds are associated with a warmer and more saline water mass compared to the surrounding shelf. Reconstruction of historical bottom temperature and salinity in Emerald Basin revealed strong multi-decadal variability, with average bottom temperatures varying by 8°C. We show that this species has persisted in the face of this climatic variability, possibly indicating how it will respond to future climate change.

A multiscale approach to mapping seabed sediments

Benthic habitat maps, including maps of seabed sediments, have become critical spatial-decision support tools for marine ecological management and conservation. Despite the increasing recognition that environmental variables should be considered at multiple spatial scales, variables used in habitat mapping are often implemented at a single scale. The objective of this study was to evaluate the potential for using environmental variables at multiple scales for modelling and mapping seabed sediments. Sixteen environmental variables were derived from multibeam echosounder data collected near Qikiqtarjuaq, Nunavut, Canada at eight spatial scales ranging from 5 to 275 m, and were tested as predictor variables for modelling seabed sediment distributions. Using grain size data obtained from grab samples, we tested which scales of each predictor variable contributed most to sediment models. Results showed that the default scale was often not the best. Out of 129 potential scale-dependent variables, 11 were selected to model the additive log-ratio of mud and sand at five different scales, and 15 were selected to model the additive log-ratio of gravel and sand, also at five different scales. Boosted Regression Tree models that explained between 46.4 and 56.3% of statistical deviance produced multiscale predictions of mud, sand, and gravel that were correlated with cross-validated test data (Spearman's ρmud = 0.77, ρsand = 0.71, ρgravel = 0.58). Predictions of individual size fractions were classified to produce a map of seabed sediments that is useful for marine spatial planning. Based on the scale-dependence of variables in this study, we concluded that spatial scale consideration is at least as important as variable selection in seabed mapping.