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Ullah H, Fordham DA, Nagelkerken I. Climate change negates positive CO 2 effects on marine species biomass and productivity by altering the strength and direction of trophic interactions. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2021; 801:149624. [PMID: 34419906 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.149624] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/18/2020] [Revised: 08/06/2021] [Accepted: 08/09/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
One of the biggest challenges in more accurately forecasting the effects of climate change on future food web dynamics relates to how climate change affects multi-trophic species interactions, particularly when multiple interacting stressors are considered. Using a dynamic food web model, we investigate the individual and combined effect of ocean warming and acidification on changes in trophic interaction strengths (both direct and indirect) and the consequent effects on biomass structure of food web functional groups. To do this, we mimicked a species-rich multi-trophic-level temperate shallow-water rocky reef food web and integrated empirical data from mesocosm experiments on altered species interactions under warming and acidification, into food-web models. We show that a low number of strong temperature-driven changes in direct trophic interactions (feeding and competition) will largely determine the magnitude of biomass change (either increase or decrease) of high-order consumers, with increasing consumer biomass suppressing that of prey species. Ocean acidification, in contrast, alters a large number of weak indirect interactions (e.g. cascading effects of increased or decreased abundances of other groups), enabling a large increase in consumer and prey biomass. The positive effects of ocean acidification are driven by boosted primary productivity, with energy flowing up to higher trophic levels. We show that warming is a much stronger driver of positive as well as negative modifications of species biomass compared to ocean acidification. Warming affects a much smaller number of existing trophic interactions, though, with direct consumer-resource effects being more important than indirect effects. We conclude that the functional role of consumers in future food webs will be largely regulated by alterations in the strength of direct trophic interactions under ocean warming, with ensuing effects on the biomass structure of marine food webs.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hadayet Ullah
- Southern Seas Ecology Laboratories, School of Biological Sciences and the Environment Institute, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, Australia
| | - Damien A Fordham
- School of Biological Sciences and the Environment Institute, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, Australia
| | - Ivan Nagelkerken
- Southern Seas Ecology Laboratories, School of Biological Sciences and the Environment Institute, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, Australia; School of Biological Sciences and the Environment Institute, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, Australia.
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Risk Assessment for Key Socio-Economic and Ecological Species in a Sub-Arctic Marine Ecosystem Under Combined Ocean Acidification and Warming. Ecosystems 2021. [DOI: 10.1007/s10021-021-00705-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/20/2022]
Abstract
AbstractThe Arctic may be particularly vulnerable to the consequences of both ocean acidification (OA) and global warming, given the faster pace of these processes in comparison with global average speeds. Here, we use the Atlantis ecosystem model to assess how the trophic network of marine fishes and invertebrates in the Icelandic waters is responding to the combined pressures of OA and warming. We develop an approach where we first identify species by their economic (catch value), social (number of participants in fisheries), or ecological (keystone species) importance. We then use literature-determined ranges of sensitivity to OA and warming for different species and functional groups in the Icelandic waters to parametrize model runs for different scenarios of warming and OA. We found divergent species responses to warming and acidification levels; (mainly) planktonic groups and forage fish benefited while (mainly) benthic groups and predatory fish decreased under warming and acidification scenarios. Assuming conservative harvest rates for the largest catch-value species, Atlantic cod, we see that the population is projected to remain stable under even the harshest acidification and warming scenario. Further, for the scenarios where the model projects reductions in biomass of Atlantic cod, other species in the ecosystem increase, likely due to a reduction in competition and predation. These results highlight the interdependencies of multiple global change drivers and their cascading effects on trophic organization, and the continued high abundance of an important species from a socio-economic perspective in the Icelandic fisheries.
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3
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Gissi E, Manea E, Mazaris AD, Fraschetti S, Almpanidou V, Bevilacqua S, Coll M, Guarnieri G, Lloret-Lloret E, Pascual M, Petza D, Rilov G, Schonwald M, Stelzenmüller V, Katsanevakis S. A review of the combined effects of climate change and other local human stressors on the marine environment. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2021; 755:142564. [PMID: 33035971 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.142564] [Citation(s) in RCA: 53] [Impact Index Per Article: 17.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/02/2020] [Revised: 09/11/2020] [Accepted: 09/21/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
Climate change (CC) is a key, global driver of change of marine ecosystems. At local and regional scales, other local human stressors (LS) can interact with CC and modify its effects on marine ecosystems. Understanding the response of the marine environment to the combined effects of CC and LS is crucial to inform marine ecosystem-based management and planning, yet our knowledge of the potential effects of such interactions is fragmented. At a global scale, we explored how cumulative effect assessments (CEAs) have addressed CC in the marine realm and discuss progress and shortcomings of current approaches. For this we conducted a systematic review on how CEAs investigated at different levels of biological organization ecological responses, functional aspects, and the combined effect of CC and HS. Globally, the effects of 52 LS and of 27 CC-related stressors on the marine environment have been studied in combination, such as industrial fisheries with change in temperature, or sea level rise with artisanal fisheries, marine litter, change in sediment load and introduced alien species. CC generally intensified the effects of LS at species level. At trophic groups and ecosystem levels, the effects of CC either intensified or mitigated the effects of other HS depending on the trophic groups or the environmental conditions involved, thus suggesting that the combined effects of CC and LS are context-dependent and vary among and within ecosystems. Our results highlight that large-scale assessments on the spatial interaction and combined effects of CC and LS remain limited. More importantly, our results strengthen the urgent need of CEAs to capture local-scale effects of stressors that can exacerbate climate-induced changes. Ultimately, this will allow identifying management measures that aid counteracting CC effects at relevant scales.
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Affiliation(s)
- Elena Gissi
- IUAV University of Venice, Tolentini 191, Santa Croce, 30135 Venice, Italy.
| | - Elisabetta Manea
- IUAV University of Venice, Tolentini 191, Santa Croce, 30135 Venice, Italy
| | - Antonios D Mazaris
- Department of Ecology, School of Biology, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, 54124 Thessaloniki, Greece
| | - Simonetta Fraschetti
- Università Federico II di Napoli, Napoli, Italy; Consorzio Universitario per le Scienze del Mare, P.le Flaminio 9, 00196 Rome, Italy; Stazione Zoologica Anton Dohrn, Napoli, Italy
| | - Vasiliki Almpanidou
- Department of Ecology, School of Biology, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, 54124 Thessaloniki, Greece
| | - Stanislao Bevilacqua
- Department of Life Sciences, University of Trieste, Trieste, Italy; Consorzio Universitario per le Scienze del Mare, P.le Flaminio 9, 00196 Rome, Italy
| | - Marta Coll
- Institute of Marine Science, ICM-CSIC, Passeig Marítim de la Barceloneta, no 37-49, 08003 Barcelona, Spain; Ecopath International Initiative, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Giuseppe Guarnieri
- Department of Biological and Environmental Sciences and Technologies, University of Salento, Lecce, Italy; Consorzio Universitario per le Scienze del Mare, P.le Flaminio 9, 00196 Rome, Italy
| | - Elena Lloret-Lloret
- Institute of Marine Science, ICM-CSIC, Passeig Marítim de la Barceloneta, no 37-49, 08003 Barcelona, Spain; Ecopath International Initiative, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Marta Pascual
- Basque Centre for Climate Change (BC3), Edificio Sede N°1 Planta 1/Parque Científico UPV-EHU, Barrio Sarriena, s/n, 48940 Leioa, Bizkaia, Spain
| | - Dimitra Petza
- Department of Marine Sciences, University of the Aegean, University Hill, 81100 Mytilene, Greece; Directorate for Fisheries Policy & Fishery Resources Utilisation, Directorate General for Fisheries, Ministry of Rural Development & Food, 150 Syggrou Avenue, 17671 Athens, Greece
| | - Gil Rilov
- Israel Oceanographic and Limnological Research, National Institute of Oceanography, P.O. Box 8030, Haifa 31080, Israel
| | - Maura Schonwald
- Israel Oceanographic and Limnological Research, National Institute of Oceanography, P.O. Box 8030, Haifa 31080, Israel
| | | | - Stelios Katsanevakis
- Department of Marine Sciences, University of the Aegean, University Hill, 81100 Mytilene, Greece
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Sánchez-Quinto A, Costa JCD, Zamboni NS, Sanches FHC, Principe SC, Viotto EV, Casagranda E, Veiga-Lima FAD, Possamai B, Faroni-Perez L. Development of a conceptual framework for the management of biodiversity and ecosystem services in the Mexican Caribbean. BIOTA NEOTROPICA 2020. [DOI: 10.1590/1676-0611-bn-2019-0901] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/31/2022]
Abstract
Abstract: Coral reefs and mangroves support rich biodiversity and provide ecosystem services that range from food, recreational benefits and coastal protection services, among others. They are one of the most threatened ecosystems by urbanization processes. In this context, we developed a conceptual framework for the management of biodiversity and ecosystem services for these coastal environments. We based our workflow on two sections: “Information base” and “Governance” and use the Puerto Morelos Coastal region as a case study for coastal protection. Puerto Morelos is between two of the most touristic destinations of Mexico (Playa del Carmen and Cancun) that has experienced an increase of population in the past four decades resulting in an intensification of multiple threats to its ecosystems. We characterized the two ecosystems with a “Management Units” strategy. An expert-based ecosystem services matrix was also described in order to connect mangroves and coral reef ecosystems with the multiple beneficiaries. Then an ecosystem model (conceptual model and Global Biodiversity model) was developed. The conceptual model was useful in understanding the interplay processes between systems regarding the ecosystem service of “Coastal Protection”. The Global Biodiversity model evidenced the human-induced shifts in the biodiversity for mangrove and coral reefs ecosystems. Also, a projection for 2035 of “best” and “worst” scenarios was applied using GLOBIO3. A DPSIR conceptual framework was used to analyze environmental problems regarding ecosystem services maintenance. Finally, we evaluated a set of policies associated with these ecosystems that favor coastal protection integrity. This framework facilitates the identification of the most relevant processes and controls about the provision of coastal protection service. It can also be useful to better target management actions and as a tool to identify future management needs to tackle the challenges preventing more effective conservation of coastal environments.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | | | | | | | - Evangelina V. Viotto
- Centro de Investigación Científica y de Transferencia Tecnológica a la Producción, Argentina
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Pethybridge HR, Weijerman M, Perrymann H, Audzijonyte A, Porobic J, McGregor V, Girardin R, Bulman C, Ortega-Cisneros K, Sinerchia M, Hutton T, Lozano-Montes H, Mori M, Novaglio C, Fay G, Gorton R, Fulton E. Calibrating process-based marine ecosystem models: An example case using Atlantis. Ecol Modell 2019. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2019.108822] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/25/2022]
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Weijerman M, Veazey L, Yee S, Vaché K, Delevaux JMS, Donovan MK, Falinski K, Lecky J, Oleson KLL. Managing Local Stressors for Coral Reef Condition and Ecosystem Services Delivery Under Climate Scenarios. FRONTIERS IN MARINE SCIENCE 2018; 5:10.3389/fmars.2018.00425. [PMID: 34124078 PMCID: PMC8193846 DOI: 10.3389/fmars.2018.00425] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/10/2023]
Abstract
Coral reefs provide numerous ecosystem goods and services, but are threatened by multiple environmental and anthropogenic stressors. To identify management scenarios that will reverse or mitigate ecosystem degradation, managers can benefit from tools that can quantify projected changes in ecosystem services due to alternative management options. We used a spatially-explicit biophysical ecosystem model to evaluate socio-ecological trade-offs of land-based vs. marine-based management scenarios, and local-scale vs. global-scale stressors and their cumulative impacts. To increase the relevance of understanding ecological change for the public and decision-makers, we used four ecological production functions to translate the model outputs into the ecosystem services: "State of the Reef," "Trophic Integrity," "Fisheries Production," and "Fisheries Landings." For a case study of Maui Nui, Hawai'i, land-based management attenuated coral cover decline whereas fisheries management promoted higher total fish biomass. Placement of no-take marine protected areas (MPAs) across 30% of coral reef areas led to a reversal of the historical decline in predatory fish biomass, although this outcome depended on the spatial arrangement of MPAs. Coral cover declined less severely under strict sediment mitigation scenarios. However, the benefits of these local management scenarios were largely lost when accounting for climate-related impacts. Climate-related stressors indirectly increased herbivore biomass due to the shift from corals to algae and, hence, greater food availability. The two ecosystem services related to fish biomass increased under climate-related stressors but "Trophic Integrity" of the reef declined, indicating a less resilient reef. "State of the Reef" improved most and "Trophic Integrity" declined least under an optimistic global warming scenario and strict local management. This work provides insight into the relative influence of land-based vs. marine-based management and local vs. global stressors as drivers of changes in ecosystem dynamics while quantifying the tradeoffs between conservation- and extraction-oriented ecosystem services.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mariska Weijerman
- Joint Institute of Marine and Atmospheric Research, University of Hawai’i at Mānoa, Honolulu, HI, United States
- Pacific Islands Fisheries Science Center, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Honolulu, HI, United States
| | - Lindsay Veazey
- Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Management, University of Hawai’i at Mānoa, Honolulu, HI, United States
| | - Susan Yee
- Gulf Ecology Division, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Gulf Breeze, FL, United States
| | - Kellie Vaché
- Biological and Ecological Engineering, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, United States
| | - Jade M. S. Delevaux
- Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Management, University of Hawai’i at Mānoa, Honolulu, HI, United States
| | - Mary K. Donovan
- Hawai’i Institute of Marine Biology, University of Hawai’i at Mānoa, Kānéohe, HI, United States
| | - Kim Falinski
- Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Management, University of Hawai’i at Mānoa, Honolulu, HI, United States
| | - Joey Lecky
- Joint Institute of Marine and Atmospheric Research, University of Hawai’i at Mānoa, Honolulu, HI, United States
- Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Management, University of Hawai’i at Mānoa, Honolulu, HI, United States
| | - Kirsten L. L. Oleson
- Joint Institute of Marine and Atmospheric Research, University of Hawai’i at Mānoa, Honolulu, HI, United States
- Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Management, University of Hawai’i at Mānoa, Honolulu, HI, United States
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7
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SEAMANCORE: A spatially explicit simulation model for assisting the local MANagement of COral REefs. Ecol Modell 2018. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2018.05.026] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/22/2022]
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8
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Bossier S, Palacz AP, Nielsen JR, Christensen A, Hoff A, Maar M, Gislason H, Bastardie F, Gorton R, Fulton EA. The Baltic Sea Atlantis: An integrated end-to-end modelling framework evaluating ecosystem-wide effects of human-induced pressures. PLoS One 2018; 13:e0199168. [PMID: 30028849 PMCID: PMC6054375 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0199168] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/01/2018] [Accepted: 06/01/2018] [Indexed: 12/03/2022] Open
Abstract
Achieving good environmental status in the Baltic Sea region requires decision support tools which are based on scientific knowledge across multiple disciplines. Such tools should integrate the complexity of the ecosystem and enable exploration of different natural and anthropogenic pressures such as climate change, eutrophication and fishing pressures in order to compare alternative management strategies. We present a new framework, with a Baltic implementation of the spatially-explicit end-to-end Atlantis ecosystem model linked to two external models, to explore the different pressures on the marine ecosystem. The HBM-ERGOM initializes the Atlantis model with high-resolution physical-chemical-biological and hydrodynamic information while the FISHRENT model analyses the fisheries economics of the output of commercial fish biomass for the Atlantis terminal projection year. The Baltic Atlantis model composes 29 sub-areas, 9 vertical layers and 30 biological functional groups. The balanced calibration provides realistic levels of biomass for, among others, known stock sizes of top predators and of key fish species. Furthermore, it gives realistic levels of phytoplankton biomass and shows reasonable diet compositions and geographical distribution patterns for the functional groups. By simulating several scenarios of nutrient load reductions on the ecosystem and testing sensitivity to different fishing pressures, we show that the model is sensitive to those changes and capable of evaluating the impacts on different trophic levels, fish stocks, and fisheries associated with changed benthic oxygen conditions. We conclude that the Baltic Atlantis forms an initial basis for strategic management evaluation suited for conducting medium to long term ecosystem assessments which are of importance for a number of pan-Baltic stakeholders in relation to anthropogenic pressures such as eutrophication, climate change and fishing pressure, as well as changed biological interactions between functional groups.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sieme Bossier
- National Institute of Aquatic Resources, Technical University of Denmark, Lyngby, Denmark
- * E-mail:
| | - Artur P. Palacz
- International Ocean Carbon Coordination Project, Institute of Oceanology of the Polish Academy of Sciences, Sopot, Poland
| | - J. Rasmus Nielsen
- National Institute of Aquatic Resources, Technical University of Denmark, Lyngby, Denmark
| | - Asbjørn Christensen
- National Institute of Aquatic Resources, Technical University of Denmark, Lyngby, Denmark
| | - Ayoe Hoff
- Department of Food and Resource Economics, Copenhagen University, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Marie Maar
- Department of Bioscience, Aarhus University, Roskilde, Denmark
| | - Henrik Gislason
- National Institute of Aquatic Resources, Technical University of Denmark, Lyngby, Denmark
| | - François Bastardie
- National Institute of Aquatic Resources, Technical University of Denmark, Lyngby, Denmark
| | | | - Elizabeth A. Fulton
- CSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere, Hobart, Australia
- Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania, Battery Point, Tasmania, Australia
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Dornelas M, Madin JS, Baird AH, Connolly SR. Allometric growth in reef-building corals. Proc Biol Sci 2018; 284:rspb.2017.0053. [PMID: 28330923 DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2017.0053] [Citation(s) in RCA: 24] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/09/2017] [Accepted: 02/23/2017] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Predicting demographic rates is a critical part of forecasting the future of ecosystems under global change. Here, we test if growth rates can be predicted from morphological traits for a highly diverse group of colonial symbiotic organisms: scleractinian corals. We ask whether growth is isometric or allometric among corals, and whether most variation in coral growth rates occurs at the level of the species or morphological group. We estimate growth as change in planar area for 11 species, across five morphological groups and over 5 years. We show that coral growth rates are best predicted from colony size and morphology rather than species. Coral size follows a power scaling law with a constant exponent of 0.91. Despite being colonial organisms, corals have consistent allometric scaling in growth. This consistency simplifies the task of projecting community responses to disturbance and climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Maria Dornelas
- Centre for Biological Diversity, Scottish Oceans Institute, University of St Andrews, St Andrews KY16 9TH, UK
| | - Joshua S Madin
- Department of Biological Sciences, Macquarie University, Sydney, New South Wales 2109, Australia
| | - Andrew H Baird
- ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, College of Science and Engineering, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland 4811, Australia
| | - Sean R Connolly
- ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, College of Science and Engineering, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland 4811, Australia.,Marine Biology and Aquaculture, College of Science and Engineering, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland 4811, Australia
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10
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Kaplan IC, Koehn LE, Hodgson EE, Marshall KN, Essington TE. Modeling food web effects of low sardine and anchovy abundance in the California Current. Ecol Modell 2017. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2017.05.007] [Citation(s) in RCA: 21] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
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11
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Marshall KN, Kaplan IC, Hodgson EE, Hermann A, Busch DS, McElhany P, Essington TE, Harvey CJ, Fulton EA. Risks of ocean acidification in the California Current food web and fisheries: ecosystem model projections. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2017; 23:1525-1539. [PMID: 28078785 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13594] [Citation(s) in RCA: 27] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/01/2016] [Revised: 09/08/2016] [Accepted: 11/07/2016] [Indexed: 05/28/2023]
Abstract
The benefits and ecosystem services that humans derive from the oceans are threatened by numerous global change stressors, one of which is ocean acidification. Here, we describe the effects of ocean acidification on an upwelling system that already experiences inherently low pH conditions, the California Current. We used an end-to-end ecosystem model (Atlantis), forced by downscaled global climate models and informed by a meta-analysis of the pH sensitivities of local taxa, to investigate the direct and indirect effects of future pH on biomass and fisheries revenues. Our model projects a 0.2-unit drop in pH during the summer upwelling season from 2013 to 2063, which results in wide-ranging magnitudes of effects across guilds and functional groups. The most dramatic direct effects of future pH may be expected on epibenthic invertebrates (crabs, shrimps, benthic grazers, benthic detritivores, bivalves), and strong indirect effects expected on some demersal fish, sharks, and epibenthic invertebrates (Dungeness crab) because they consume species known to be sensitive to changing pH. The model's pelagic community, including marine mammals and seabirds, was much less influenced by future pH. Some functional groups were less affected to changing pH in the model than might be expected from experimental studies in the empirical literature due to high population productivity (e.g., copepods, pteropods). Model results suggest strong effects of reduced pH on nearshore state-managed invertebrate fisheries, but modest effects on the groundfish fishery because individual groundfish species exhibited diverse responses to changing pH. Our results provide a set of projections that generally support and build upon previous findings and set the stage for hypotheses to guide future modeling and experimental analysis on the effects of OA on marine ecosystems and fisheries.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kristin N Marshall
- Conservation Biology Division, Northwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, NOAA, 2725 Montlake Blvd E, Seattle, WA, 98112, USA
| | - Isaac C Kaplan
- Conservation Biology Division, Northwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, NOAA, 2725 Montlake Blvd E, Seattle, WA, 98112, USA
| | - Emma E Hodgson
- School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, 98195-5020, USA
| | - Albert Hermann
- NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, 7600 Sand Point Way NE, Seattle, WA, 98115, USA
- Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, 3737 Brooklyn Ave NE, Seattle, WA, 98105, USA
| | - D Shallin Busch
- Ocean Acidification Program, Ocean and Atmospheric Research and Northwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, NOAA, 2725 Montlake Blvd E, Seattle, WA, 98112, USA
| | - Paul McElhany
- Conservation Biology Division, Northwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, NOAA, 2725 Montlake Blvd E, Seattle, WA, 98112, USA
| | - Timothy E Essington
- School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, 98195-5020, USA
| | - Chris J Harvey
- Conservation Biology Division, Northwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, NOAA, 2725 Montlake Blvd E, Seattle, WA, 98112, USA
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12
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Weijerman M, Link J, Fulton E, Olsen E, Townsend H, Gaichas S, Hansen C, Skern-Mauritzen M, Kaplan I, Gamble R, Fay G, Savina M, Ainsworth C, van Putten I, Gorton R, Brainard R, Larsen K, Hutton T. Atlantis Ecosystem Model Summit: Report from a workshop. Ecol Modell 2016. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2016.05.007] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/21/2022]
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13
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Management Strategy Evaluation Applied to Coral Reef Ecosystems in Support of Ecosystem-Based Management. PLoS One 2016; 11:e0152577. [PMID: 27023183 PMCID: PMC4811577 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0152577] [Citation(s) in RCA: 22] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/20/2015] [Accepted: 03/16/2016] [Indexed: 12/02/2022] Open
Abstract
Ecosystem modelling is increasingly used to explore ecosystem-level effects of changing environmental conditions and management actions. For coral reefs there has been increasing interest in recent decades in the use of ecosystem models for evaluating the effects of fishing and the efficacy of marine protected areas. However, ecosystem models that integrate physical forcings, biogeochemical and ecological dynamics, and human induced perturbations are still underdeveloped. We applied an ecosystem model (Atlantis) to the coral reef ecosystem of Guam using a suite of management scenarios prioritized in consultation with local resource managers to review the effects of each scenario on performance measures related to the ecosystem, the reef-fish fishery (e.g., fish landings) and coral habitat. Comparing tradeoffs across the selected scenarios showed that each scenario performed best for at least one of the selected performance indicators. The integrated ‘full regulation’ scenario outperformed other scenarios with four out of the six performance metrics at the cost of reef-fish landings. This model application quantifies the socio-ecological costs and benefits of alternative management scenarios. When the effects of climate change were taken into account, several scenarios performed equally well, but none prevented a collapse in coral biomass over the next few decades assuming a business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions scenario.
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