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Raiho AM, Paciorek CJ, Dawson A, Jackson ST, Mladenoff DJ, Williams JW, McLachlan JS. 8000-year doubling of Midwestern forest biomass driven by population- and biome-scale processes. Science 2022. [DOI: 10.1126/science.abk3126] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/02/2022]
Abstract
Changes in woody biomass over centuries to millennia are poorly known, leaving unclear the magnitude of terrestrial carbon fluxes before industrial-era disturbance. Here, we statistically reconstructed changes in woody biomass across the upper Midwestern region of the United States over the past 10,000 years using a Bayesian model calibrated to preindustrial forest biomass estimates and fossil pollen records. After an initial postglacial decline, woody biomass nearly doubled during the past 8000 years, sequestering 1800 teragrams. This steady accumulation of carbon was driven by two separate ecological responses to regionally changing climate: the spread of forested biomes and the population expansion of high-biomass tree species within forests. What took millennia to accumulate took less than two centuries to remove: Industrial-era logging and agriculture have erased this carbon accumulation.
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Affiliation(s)
- A. M. Raiho
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Notre Dame, South Bend, IN, USA
- Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland, College Park, College Park, MD, USA
| | - C. J. Paciorek
- Department of Statistics, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, USA
| | - A. Dawson
- Department of General Education, Mount Royal University, Calgary, Alberta, Canada
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta, Canada
| | - S. T. Jackson
- US Geological Survey, Southwest and South Central Climate Adaptation Centers, Tucson, AZ, USA
- Department of Geosciences, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA
| | - D. J. Mladenoff
- Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin–Madison, Madison, WI, USA
| | - J. W. Williams
- Department of Geography, University of Wisconsin–Madison, Madison, WI, USA
- Center for Climatic Research, University of Wisconsin–Madison, Madison, WI, USA
| | - J. S. McLachlan
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Notre Dame, South Bend, IN, USA
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2
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Novick K, Jo I, D'Orangeville L, Benson M, Au TF, Barnes M, Denham S, Fei S, Heilman K, Hwang T, Keyser T, Maxwell J, Miniat C, McLachlan J, Pederson N, Wang L, Wood JD, Phillips RP. The Drought Response of Eastern US Oaks in the Context of Their Declining Abundance. Bioscience 2022. [DOI: 10.1093/biosci/biab135] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
Abstract
The oak (Quercus) species of eastern North America are declining in abundance, threatening the many socioecological benefits they provide. We discuss the mechanisms responsible for their loss, many of which are rooted in the prevailing view that oaks are drought tolerant. We then synthesize previously published data to comprehensively review the drought response strategies of eastern US oaks, concluding that whether or not eastern oaks are drought tolerant depends firmly on the metric of success. Although the anisohydric strategy of oaks sometimes confers a gas exchange and growth advantage, it exposes oaks to damaging hydraulic failure, such that oaks are just as or more likely to perish during drought than neighboring species. Consequently, drought frequency is not a strong predictor of historic patterns of oak abundance, although long-term climate and fire frequency are strongly correlated with declines in oak dominance. The oaks’ ability to survive drought may become increasingly difficult in a drier future.
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3
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Gough CM, Bohrer G, Hardiman BS, Nave LE, Vogel CS, Atkins JW, Bond-Lamberty B, Fahey RT, Fotis AT, Grigri MS, Haber LT, Ju Y, Kleinke CL, Mathes KC, Nadelhoffer KJ, Stuart-Haëntjens E, Curtis PS. Disturbance-accelerated succession increases the production of a temperate forest. ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS : A PUBLICATION OF THE ECOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA 2021; 31:e02417. [PMID: 34278647 DOI: 10.1002/eap.2417] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/14/2020] [Revised: 02/19/2021] [Accepted: 03/22/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
Many secondary deciduous forests of eastern North America are approaching a transition in which mature early-successional trees are declining, resulting in an uncertain future for this century-long carbon (C) sink. We initiated the Forest Accelerated Succession Experiment (FASET) at the University of Michigan Biological Station to examine the patterns and mechanisms underlying forest C cycling following the stem girdling-induced mortality of >6,700 early-successional Populus spp. (aspen) and Betula papyrifera (paper birch). Meteorological flux tower-based C cycling observations from the 33-ha treatment forest have been paired with those from a nearby unmanipulated forest since 2008. Following over a decade of observations, we revisit our core hypothesis: that net ecosystem production (NEP) would increase following the transition to mid-late-successional species dominance due to increased canopy structural complexity. Supporting our hypothesis, NEP was stable, briefly declined, and then increased relative to the control in the decade following disturbance; however, increasing NEP was not associated with rising structural complexity but rather with a rapid 1-yr recovery of total leaf area index as mid-late-successional Acer, Quercus, and Pinus assumed canopy dominance. The transition to mid-late-successional species dominance improved carbon-use efficiency (CUE = NEP/gross primary production) as ecosystem respiration declined. Similar soil respiration rates in control and treatment forests, along with species differences in leaf physiology and the rising relative growth rates of mid-late-successional species in the treatment forest, suggest changes in aboveground plant respiration and growth were primarily responsible for increases in NEP. We conclude that deciduous forests transitioning from early to middle succession are capable of sustained or increased NEP, even when experiencing extensive tree mortality. This adds to mounting evidence that aging deciduous forests in the region will function as C sinks for decades to come.
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Affiliation(s)
- Christopher M Gough
- Department of Biology, Virginia Commonwealth University, Box 842012, 1000 West Cary Street, Richmond, Virginia, 23284, USA
| | - Gil Bohrer
- Department of Civil, Environmental and Geodetic Engineering, Ohio State University, 2070 Neil Avenue, Columbus, Ohio, 43210, USA
| | - Brady S Hardiman
- Forestry and Natural Resources and Environmental and Ecological Engineering, Purdue University, West Lafayette, Indiana, 47907, USA
| | - Lucas E Nave
- Biological Station and Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Michigan, Pellston, Michigan, 49769, USA
| | - Christoph S Vogel
- Biological Station and Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Michigan, Pellston, Michigan, 49769, USA
| | - Jeff W Atkins
- Department of Biology, Virginia Commonwealth University, Box 842012, 1000 West Cary Street, Richmond, Virginia, 23284, USA
| | - Ben Bond-Lamberty
- Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, 5825 University Research Court, College Park, Maryland, 20740, USA
| | - Robert T Fahey
- Department of Natural Resources and the Environment, Center for Environmental Sciences and Engineering, University of Connecticut, 1376 Storrs Road, Storrs, Connecticut, 06269, USA
| | - Alexander T Fotis
- Department of Evolution, Ecology, and Organismal Biology, Ohio State University, 318 W 12th Avenue, Columbus, Ohio, 43210, USA
| | - Maxim S Grigri
- Department of Biology, Virginia Commonwealth University, Box 842012, 1000 West Cary Street, Richmond, Virginia, 23284, USA
| | - Lisa T Haber
- Department of Biology, Virginia Commonwealth University, Box 842012, 1000 West Cary Street, Richmond, Virginia, 23284, USA
| | - Yang Ju
- Department of Civil, Environmental and Geodetic Engineering, Ohio State University, 2070 Neil Avenue, Columbus, Ohio, 43210, USA
| | - Callie L Kleinke
- Department of Civil, Environmental and Geodetic Engineering, Ohio State University, 2070 Neil Avenue, Columbus, Ohio, 43210, USA
| | - Kayla C Mathes
- Department of Biology, Virginia Commonwealth University, Box 842012, 1000 West Cary Street, Richmond, Virginia, 23284, USA
| | - Knute J Nadelhoffer
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, 48109, USA
| | - Ellen Stuart-Haëntjens
- Department of Biology, Virginia Commonwealth University, Box 842012, 1000 West Cary Street, Richmond, Virginia, 23284, USA
| | - Peter S Curtis
- Department of Evolution, Ecology, and Organismal Biology, Ohio State University, 318 W 12th Avenue, Columbus, Ohio, 43210, USA
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4
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Increased water use efficiency leads to decreased precipitation sensitivity of tree growth, but is offset by high temperatures. Oecologia 2021; 197:1095-1110. [PMID: 33743068 PMCID: PMC8591026 DOI: 10.1007/s00442-021-04892-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/01/2020] [Accepted: 03/02/2021] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
Abstract
Both increases in temperature and changes in precipitation may limit future tree growth, but rising atmospheric CO2 could offset some of these stressors through increased plant Water Use Efficiency (WUE). The net balance between the negative impacts of climate change and positive effects of CO2 on tree growth is crucial for ecotones, where increased climate stress could drive mortality and shifts in range. Here, we quantify the effects of climate, stand structure, and rising CO2 on both annual tree-ring growth increment and intrinsic WUE (iWUE) at a savanna-forest boundary in the Upper Midwest United States. Taking a Bayesian hierarchical modelling approach, we find that plant iWUE increased by ~ 16–23% over the course of the twentieth century, but on average, tree-ring growth increments do not significantly increase. Consistent with higher iWUE under increased CO2 and recent wetting, we observe a decrease in sensitivity of tree growth to annual precipitation, leading to ~ 35–41% higher growth under dry conditions compared to trees of similar size in the past. However, an emerging interaction between summer maximum temperatures and annual precipitation diminishes the water-savings benefit under hot and dry conditions. This decrease in precipitation sensitivity, and the interaction between temperature and precipitation are strongest in open canopy microclimates, suggesting that stand structure may modulate response to future changes. Overall, while higher iWUE may provide some water savings benefits to growth under normal drought conditions, near-term future temperature increases combined with drought events could drive growth declines of about 50%.
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5
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Paciorek CJ, Cogbill CV, Peters JA, Williams JW, Mladenoff DJ, Dawson A, McLachlan JS. The forests of the midwestern United States at Euro-American settlement: Spatial and physical structure based on contemporaneous survey data. PLoS One 2021; 16:e0246473. [PMID: 33571316 PMCID: PMC7877788 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0246473] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/05/2020] [Accepted: 01/19/2021] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
We present gridded 8 km-resolution data products of the estimated stem density, basal area, and biomass of tree taxa at Euro-American settlement of the midwestern United States during the middle to late 19th century for the states of Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Illinois, and Indiana. The data come from settlement-era Public Land Survey (PLS) data (ca. 0.8-km resolution) of trees recorded by land surveyors. The surveyor notes have been transcribed, cleaned, and processed to estimate stem density, basal area, and biomass at individual points. The point-level data are aggregated within 8 km grid cells and smoothed using a generalized additive statistical model that accounts for zero-inflated continuous data and provides approximate Bayesian uncertainty estimates. The statistical modeling smooths out sharp spatial features (likely arising from statistical noise) within areas smaller than about 200 km2. Based on this modeling, presettlement Midwestern landscapes supported multiple dominant species, vegetation types, forest types, and ecological formations. The prairies, oak savannas, and forests each had distinctive structures and spatial distributions across the domain. Forest structure varied from savanna (averaging 27 Mg/ha biomass) to northern hardwood (104 Mg/ha) and mesic southern forests (211 Mg/ha). The presettlement forests were neither unbroken and massively-statured nor dominated by young forests constantly structured by broad-scale disturbances such as fire, drought, insect outbreaks, or hurricanes. Most forests were structurally between modern second growth and old growth. We expect the data product to be useful as a baseline for investigating how forest ecosystems have changed in response to the last several centuries of climate change and intensive Euro-American land use and as a calibration dataset for paleoecological proxy-based reconstructions of forest composition and structure for earlier time periods. The data products (including raw and smoothed estimates at the 8-km scale) are available at the LTER Network Data Portal as version 1.0.
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Affiliation(s)
- Christopher J. Paciorek
- Department of Statistics, University of California, Berkeley, California, United States of America
- * E-mail:
| | - Charles V. Cogbill
- Harvard Forest, Harvard University, Petersham, Massachusetts, United States of America
| | - Jody A. Peters
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, Indiana, United States of America
| | - John W. Williams
- Department of Geography, University of Wisconsin, Madison, Wisconsin, United States of America
- Center for Climatic Research, University of Wisconsin, Madison, Wisconsin, United States of America
| | - David J. Mladenoff
- Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin, Madison, Wisconsin, United States of America
| | - Andria Dawson
- Department of General Education, Mount Royal University, Calgary, Alberta, Canada
| | - Jason S. McLachlan
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, Indiana, United States of America
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6
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Rollinson CR, Dawson A, Raiho AM, Williams JW, Dietze MC, Hickler T, Jackson ST, McLachlan J, Jp Moore D, Poulter B, Quaife T, Steinkamp J, Trachsel M. Forest responses to last-millennium hydroclimate variability are governed by spatial variations in ecosystem sensitivity. Ecol Lett 2020; 24:498-508. [PMID: 33377307 DOI: 10.1111/ele.13667] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/03/2020] [Revised: 11/18/2020] [Accepted: 11/23/2020] [Indexed: 01/13/2023]
Abstract
Forecasts of future forest change are governed by ecosystem sensitivity to climate change, but ecosystem model projections are under-constrained by data at multidecadal and longer timescales. Here, we quantify ecosystem sensitivity to centennial-scale hydroclimate variability, by comparing dendroclimatic and pollen-inferred reconstructions of drought, forest composition and biomass for the last millennium with five ecosystem model simulations. In both observations and models, spatial patterns in ecosystem responses to hydroclimate variability are strongly governed by ecosystem sensitivity rather than climate exposure. Ecosystem sensitivity was higher in models than observations and highest in simpler models. Model-data comparisons suggest that interactions among biodiversity, demography and ecophysiology processes dampen the sensitivity of forest composition and biomass to climate variability and change. Integrating ecosystem models with observations from timescales extending beyond the instrumental record can better understand and forecast the mechanisms regulating forest sensitivity to climate variability in a complex and changing world.
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Affiliation(s)
- Christine R Rollinson
- Center for Tree Science, The Morton Arboretum, 4100 Illinois Route 53, Lisle, IL, 60532, USA
| | - Andria Dawson
- Department of General Education, Mount Royal University, Calgary, Alberta, T3E 6K6, Canada
| | - Ann M Raiho
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Notre Dame, 100 Galvin Life Science Center, Notre Dame, IN, 46556, USA
| | - John W Williams
- Department of Geography and Center for Climatic Research, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, 53704, USA
| | - Michael C Dietze
- Department of Earth and Environment, Boston University, 685 Commonwealth Ave, Boston, MA, 02215, USA
| | - Thomas Hickler
- Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (SBiK-F), Senckenberganlage 25, Frankfurt/Main, 60325, Germany.,Department of Physical Geography, Goethe University, Frankfurt/Main, Germany
| | - Stephen T Jackson
- US Geological Survey, Southwest and South Central Climate Adaptation Centers, Denver, DE, USA.,Department of Geosciences, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, 85721, USA
| | - Jason McLachlan
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Notre Dame, 100 Galvin Life Science Center, Notre Dame, IN, 46556, USA
| | - David Jp Moore
- School of Natural Resources, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, 85721, USA
| | | | - Tristan Quaife
- Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, RG6 6BB, UK
| | - Jörg Steinkamp
- Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (SBiK-F), Frankfurt/Main, Germany.,Johannes Gutenberg University, Mainz, Germany
| | - Mathias Trachsel
- Department of Geography, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, 53704, USA
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7
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Guerin GR, Williams KJ, Leitch E, Lowe AJ, Sparrow B. Using generalised dissimilarity modelling and targeted field surveys to gap‐fill an ecosystem surveillance network. J Appl Ecol 2020. [DOI: 10.1111/1365-2664.13814] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Greg R. Guerin
- School of Biological Science The University of Adelaide Adelaide SA Australia
- Terrestrial Ecosystem Research Network Brisbane SA Australia
| | | | - Emrys Leitch
- School of Biological Science The University of Adelaide Adelaide SA Australia
- Terrestrial Ecosystem Research Network Brisbane SA Australia
| | - Andrew J. Lowe
- School of Biological Science The University of Adelaide Adelaide SA Australia
| | - Ben Sparrow
- School of Biological Science The University of Adelaide Adelaide SA Australia
- Terrestrial Ecosystem Research Network Brisbane SA Australia
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8
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Guerin GR, Williams KJ, Sparrow B, Lowe AJ. Stocktaking the environmental coverage of a continental ecosystem observation network. Ecosphere 2020. [DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.3307] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/06/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Greg R. Guerin
- School of Biological Sciences The University of Adelaide Adelaide South Australia5005Australia
| | | | - Ben Sparrow
- School of Biological Sciences The University of Adelaide Adelaide South Australia5005Australia
| | - Andrew J. Lowe
- School of Biological Sciences The University of Adelaide Adelaide South Australia5005Australia
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9
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Knight CA, Cogbill CV, Potts MD, Wanket JA, Battles JJ. Settlement‐era forest structure and composition in the Klamath Mountains: reconstructing a historical baseline. Ecosphere 2020. [DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.3250] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/11/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Clarke A. Knight
- Department of Environmental Science, Policy, and Management University of California, Berkeley Berkeley California94720USA
| | | | - Matthew D. Potts
- Department of Environmental Science, Policy, and Management University of California, Berkeley Berkeley California94720USA
| | - James A. Wanket
- Department of Geography California State University, Sacramento Sacramento California95819USA
| | - John J. Battles
- Department of Environmental Science, Policy, and Management University of California, Berkeley Berkeley California94720USA
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10
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Hanberry BB. Baseline to novel ecosystems in Michigan, USA, with a quantitative and qualitative assessment. ECOSCIENCE 2020. [DOI: 10.1080/11956860.2020.1791686] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/23/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Brice B. Hanberry
- Grassland, Shrubland, and Desert Ecosystem, USDA Forest Service, Rapid City, SD, USA
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11
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A Review of Statistics in Palaeoenvironmental Research. JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL, BIOLOGICAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL STATISTICS 2020. [DOI: 10.1007/s13253-019-00374-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/26/2022]
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12
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Levine CR, Cogbill CV, Collins BM, Larson AJ, Lutz JA, North MP, Restaino CM, Safford HD, Stephens SL, Battles JJ. Estimating historical forest density from land-survey data: a response to Baker and Williams (2018). ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS : A PUBLICATION OF THE ECOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA 2019; 29:e01968. [PMID: 31257657 DOI: 10.1002/eap.1968] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/01/2018] [Revised: 05/20/2019] [Accepted: 06/14/2019] [Indexed: 06/09/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- Carrie R Levine
- Department of Environmental Science and Policy, University of California, Davis, One Shields Avenue, Davis, California, 95616, USA
| | - Charles V Cogbill
- Harvard Forest, Harvard University, 324 North Main Street, Petersham, Massachusetts, 01366, USA
| | - Brandon M Collins
- USDA Forest Service, Pacific Southwest Research Station, 1731 Research Park Drive, Davis, California, 95618, USA
- Center for Fire Research and Outreach, College of Natural Resources, University of California, Berkeley, California, 94720-3114, USA
| | - Andrew J Larson
- Department of Forest Management, University of Montana, 32 Campus Drive, Missoula, Montana, 59812, USA
| | - James A Lutz
- S. J. & Jessie E. Quinney College of Natural Resources, Utah State University, 5230 Old Main Hill, Logan, Utah, 84322-5230, USA
| | - Malcolm P North
- USDA Forest Service, Pacific Southwest Research Station, 1731 Research Park Drive, Davis, California, 95618, USA
- Department of Plant Sciences, University of California, Davis, One Shields Avenue, Davis, California, 95616, USA
| | | | - Hugh D Safford
- Department of Environmental Science and Policy, University of California, Davis, One Shields Avenue, Davis, California, 95616, USA
- USDA Forest Service, Pacific Southwest Region, 1323 Club Drive, Vallejo, California, 94592, USA
| | - Scott L Stephens
- Department of Environmental Science, Policy, and Management, University of California, 130 Mulford Hall, Berkeley, California, 94720-3114, USA
| | - John J Battles
- Department of Environmental Science, Policy, and Management, University of California, 130 Mulford Hall, Berkeley, California, 94720-3114, USA
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13
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A Century of Forest Regrowth and Snow Loss Alters the Cooling Effect of Historical Land Use in the Upper Midwest. Ecosystems 2019. [DOI: 10.1007/s10021-019-00456-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Abstract
AbstractAnthropogenic land use affects climate by altering the energy balance of the Earth’s surface. In temperate regions, cooling from increased albedo is a common result of historical land-use change. However, this albedo cooling effect is dependent mainly on the exposure of snow cover following forest canopy removal and may change over time due to simultaneous changes in both land cover and snow cover. In this paper, we combine modern remote sensing data and historical records, incorporating over 100 years of realized land use and climatic change into an empirical assessment of centennial-scale surface forcings in the Upper Midwestern USA. We show that, although increases in surface albedo cooled through strong negative shortwave forcings, those forcings were reduced over time by a combination of forest regrowth and snow-cover loss. Deforestation cooled strongly (− 5.3 Wm−2) and mainly in winter, while composition shift cooled less strongly (− 3.03 Wm−2) and mainly in summer. Combined, changes in albedo due to deforestation, shifts in species composition, and the return of historical forest cover resulted in − 2.81 Wm−2 of regional radiative cooling, 55% less than full deforestation. Forcings due to changing vegetation were further reduced by 0.32 Wm−2 of warming from a shortened snow-covered season and a thinning of seasonal snowpack. Our findings suggest that accounting for long-term changes in land cover and snow cover reduces the estimated cooling impact of deforestation, with implications for long-term land-use planning.
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14
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Burke KD, Williams JW, Brewer S, Finsinger W, Giesecke T, Lorenz DJ, Ordonez A. Differing climatic mechanisms control transient and accumulated vegetation novelty in Europe and eastern North America. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 2019; 374:20190218. [PMID: 31679485 DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2019.0218] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Understanding the mechanisms of climate that produce novel ecosystems is of joint interest to conservation biologists and palaeoecologists. Here, we define and differentiate transient from accumulated novelty and evaluate four climatic mechanisms proposed to cause species to reshuffle into novel assemblages: high climatic novelty, high spatial rates of change (displacement), high variance among displacement rates for individual climate variables, and divergence among displacement vector bearings. We use climate simulations to quantify climate novelty, displacement and divergence across Europe and eastern North America from the last glacial maximum to the present, and fossil pollen records to quantify vegetation novelty. Transient climate novelty is consistently the strongest predictor of transient vegetation novelty, while displacement rates (mean and variance) are equally important in Europe. However, transient vegetation novelty is lower in Europe and its relationship to climatic predictors is the opposite of expectation. For both continents, accumulated novelty is greater than transient novelty, and climate novelty is the strongest predictor of accumulated ecological novelty. These results suggest that controls on novel ecosystems vary with timescale and among continents, and that the twenty-first century emergence of novelty will be driven by both rapid rates of climate change and the emergence of novel climate states. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'The past is a foreign country: how much can the fossil record actually inform conservation?'
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Affiliation(s)
- Kevin D Burke
- Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies, University of Wisconsin-Madison, 550 N. Park Street, Madison, WI 53706, USA
| | - John W Williams
- Department of Geography, University of Wisconsin-Madison, 550 N. Park Street, Madison, WI 53706, USA.,Center for Climatic Research, University of Wisconsin-Madison, 550 N. Park Street, Madison, WI 53706, USA
| | - Simon Brewer
- Department of Geography, University of Utah, 260 S. Central Campus Drive, Salt Lake City, UT 84119, USA
| | - Walter Finsinger
- Palaeoecology, ISEM (UMR 5554 CNRS/UM/EPHE), Place E. Bataillon, 34095 Montpellier, France
| | - Thomas Giesecke
- Department of Palynology and Climate Dynamics, Albrecht-von-Haller-Institute for Plant Sciences, University of Göttingen, Untere Karspüle 2, 37073 Göttingen, Germany.,Department of Physical Geography, Faculty Geoscience, Utrecht University, PO Box 80115, 3508 TC Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - David J Lorenz
- Center for Climatic Research, University of Wisconsin-Madison, 550 N. Park Street, Madison, WI 53706, USA
| | - Alejandro Ordonez
- Center for Biodiversity Dynamics in a Changing World and Ecoinformatics and Biodiversity, Department of Bioscience, Aarhus University, Ny Munkegade 116, 8000 Aarhus C, Denmark
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15
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Williams JW, Burke KD, Crossley MS, Grant DA, Radeloff VC. Land-use and climatic causes of environmental novelty in Wisconsin since 1890. ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS : A PUBLICATION OF THE ECOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA 2019; 29:e01955. [PMID: 31199539 DOI: 10.1002/eap.1955] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/14/2018] [Revised: 04/26/2019] [Accepted: 05/03/2019] [Indexed: 05/12/2023]
Abstract
Multiple global change drivers are increasing the present and future novelty of environments and ecological communities. However, most assessments of environmental novelty have focused only on future climate and were conducted at scales too broad to be useful for land management or conservation. Here, using historical county-level data sets of agricultural land use, forest composition, and climate, we conduct a regional-scale assessment of environmental novelty for Wisconsin landscapes from ca. 1890 to 2012. Agricultural land-use data include six cropland types, livestock densities for four livestock species, and human populations. Forestry data comprise biomass-weighted relative abundances for 15 tree genera. Climate data comprise seasonal means for temperature and precipitation. We found that forestry and land use are the strongest cause of environmental novelty (NoveltyForest = 3.66, NoveltyAg = 2.83, NoveltyClimate = 1.60, with Wisconsin's forests transformed by early 20th-century logging and its legacies and multiple waves of agricultural innovation and obsolescence. Climate change is the smallest contributor to contemporary novelty, with precipitation signals stronger than temperature. Magnitudes and causes of environmental novelty are strongly spatially patterned, with novelty in southern Wisconsin roughly twice that in northern Wisconsin. Forestry is the most important cause of novelty in the north, land use and climate change are jointly important in the southwestern Wisconsin, and land use and forest composition are most important in central and eastern Wisconsin. Areas of high regional novelty tend also to be areas of high local change, but local change has not pushed all counties beyond regional baselines. Seven counties serve as the best historical analogues for over one-half of contemporary Wisconsin counties (40/72), and so can offer useful historical counterparts for contemporary systems and help managers coordinate to tackle similar environmental challenges. Multi-dimensional environmental novelty analyses, like those presented here, can help identify the best historical analogues for contemporary ecosystems, places where new management rules and practices may be needed because novelty is already high, and the main causes of novelty. Separating regional novelty clearly from local change and measuring both across many dimensions and at multiple scales thus helps advance ecology and sustainability science alike.
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Affiliation(s)
- John W Williams
- Department of Geography and Center for Climatic Research, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin, 53706, USA
| | - Kevin D Burke
- Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin, 53706, USA
| | - Michael S Crossley
- Department of Entomology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin, 53706, USA
| | - Daniel A Grant
- Department of Geography, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin, 53706, USA
| | - Volker C Radeloff
- SILVIS Lab, Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin, 53706, USA
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16
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Heger T, Bernard-Verdier M, Gessler A, Greenwood AD, Grossart HP, Hilker M, Keinath S, Kowarik I, Kueffer C, Marquard E, Müller J, Niemeier S, Onandia G, Petermann JS, Rillig MC, Rödel MO, Saul WC, Schittko C, Tockner K, Joshi J, Jeschke JM. Towards an Integrative, Eco-Evolutionary Understanding of Ecological Novelty: Studying and Communicating Interlinked Effects of Global Change. Bioscience 2019; 69:888-899. [PMID: 31719711 PMCID: PMC6829016 DOI: 10.1093/biosci/biz095] [Citation(s) in RCA: 42] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/07/2023] Open
Abstract
Global change has complex eco-evolutionary consequences for organisms and ecosystems, but related concepts (e.g., novel ecosystems) do not cover their full range. Here we propose an umbrella concept of “ecological novelty” comprising (1) a site-specific and (2) an organism-centered, eco-evolutionary perspective. Under this umbrella, complementary options for studying and communicating effects of global change on organisms, ecosystems, and landscapes can be included in a toolbox. This allows researchers to address ecological novelty from different perspectives, e.g., by defining it based on (a) categorical or continuous measures, (b) reference conditions related to sites or organisms, and (c) types of human activities. We suggest striving for a descriptive, non-normative usage of the term “ecological novelty” in science. Normative evaluations and decisions about conservation policies or management are important, but require additional societal processes and engagement with multiple stakeholders.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tina Heger
- University of Potsdam, Biodiversity Research/Systematic Botany, Potsdam, Germany.,Technical University of Munich, Restoration Ecology, Freising, Germany.,Berlin-Brandenburg Institute of Advanced Biodiversity Research (BBIB), Berlin, Germany
| | - Maud Bernard-Verdier
- Berlin-Brandenburg Institute of Advanced Biodiversity Research (BBIB), Berlin, Germany
| | - Arthur Gessler
- Berlin-Brandenburg Institute of Advanced Biodiversity Research (BBIB), Berlin, Germany.,Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Forest Dynamics, Birmensdorf, Switzerland, also with the Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), Müncheberg, Germany
| | - Alex D Greenwood
- Leibniz Institute for Zoo and Wildlife Research, Berlin, Germany and the Freie Universität Berlin, Department of Veterinary Medicine, Berlin, Germany.,Berlin-Brandenburg Institute of Advanced Biodiversity Research (BBIB), Berlin, Germany
| | - Hans-Peter Grossart
- University of Potsdam, Institute of Biochemistry and Biology, Potsdam, Germany.,Berlin-Brandenburg Institute of Advanced Biodiversity Research (BBIB), Berlin, Germany
| | - Monika Hilker
- Berlin-Brandenburg Institute of Advanced Biodiversity Research (BBIB), Berlin, Germany
| | - Silvia Keinath
- Museum für Naturkunde - Leibniz Institute for Evolution and Biodiversity Science, Berlin, Germany.,Berlin-Brandenburg Institute of Advanced Biodiversity Research (BBIB), Berlin, Germany
| | - Ingo Kowarik
- Technische Universität Berlin, Department of Ecology, Ecosystem Science/Plant Ecology, Berlin, Germany.,Berlin-Brandenburg Institute of Advanced Biodiversity Research (BBIB), Berlin, Germany
| | - Christoph Kueffer
- ETH Zurich, Institute of Integrative Biology, Zurich, Switzerland.,Stellenbosch University, Centre for Invasion Biology (CIB), Department of Botany and Zoology & Department of Mathematical Sciences, Matieland, South Africa.,Institute for Landscape and Open Space, HSR Hochschule für Technik, Rapperswil, Switzerland
| | - Elisabeth Marquard
- UFZ - Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research GmbH, Department of Conservation Biology, Leipzig, Germany.,Berlin-Brandenburg Institute of Advanced Biodiversity Research (BBIB), Berlin, Germany
| | - Johannes Müller
- Museum für Naturkunde - Leibniz Institute for Evolution and Biodiversity Science, Berlin, Germany.,Berlin-Brandenburg Institute of Advanced Biodiversity Research (BBIB), Berlin, Germany
| | - Stephanie Niemeier
- Museum für Naturkunde - Leibniz Institute for Evolution and Biodiversity Science, Berlin, Germany.,Berlin-Brandenburg Institute of Advanced Biodiversity Research (BBIB), Berlin, Germany
| | - Gabriela Onandia
- Berlin-Brandenburg Institute of Advanced Biodiversity Research (BBIB), Berlin, Germany.,Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Forest Dynamics, Birmensdorf, Switzerland, also with the Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), Müncheberg, Germany
| | - Jana S Petermann
- University of Salzburg, Department of Biosciences, Salzburg, Austria.,Berlin-Brandenburg Institute of Advanced Biodiversity Research (BBIB), Berlin, Germany
| | - Matthias C Rillig
- Berlin-Brandenburg Institute of Advanced Biodiversity Research (BBIB), Berlin, Germany
| | - Mark-Oliver Rödel
- Museum für Naturkunde - Leibniz Institute for Evolution and Biodiversity Science, Berlin, Germany.,Berlin-Brandenburg Institute of Advanced Biodiversity Research (BBIB), Berlin, Germany
| | - Wolf-Christian Saul
- Leibniz-Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries (IGB), Berlin, Germany.,Berlin-Brandenburg Institute of Advanced Biodiversity Research (BBIB), Berlin, Germany.,Stellenbosch University, Centre for Invasion Biology (CIB), Department of Botany and Zoology & Department of Mathematical Sciences, Matieland, South Africa
| | - Conrad Schittko
- University of Potsdam, Biodiversity Research/Systematic Botany, Potsdam, Germany.,Berlin-Brandenburg Institute of Advanced Biodiversity Research (BBIB), Berlin, Germany
| | - Klement Tockner
- Austrian Science Funds - FWF, Vienna, Austria.,Berlin-Brandenburg Institute of Advanced Biodiversity Research (BBIB), Berlin, Germany
| | - Jasmin Joshi
- Institute for Landscape and Open Space, HSR Hochschule für Technik, Rapperswil, Switzerland.,Berlin-Brandenburg Institute of Advanced Biodiversity Research (BBIB), Berlin, Germany
| | - Jonathan M Jeschke
- Berlin-Brandenburg Institute of Advanced Biodiversity Research (BBIB), Berlin, Germany.,Freie Universität Berlin, Institute of Biology, Berlin, Germany.,Leibniz-Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries (IGB), Berlin, Germany
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17
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Dawson A, Paciorek CJ, Goring SJ, Jackson ST, McLachlan JS, Williams JW. Quantifying trends and uncertainty in prehistoric forest composition in the upper Midwestern United States. Ecology 2019; 100:e02856. [PMID: 31381148 PMCID: PMC6916576 DOI: 10.1002/ecy.2856] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/26/2018] [Revised: 03/20/2019] [Accepted: 04/30/2019] [Indexed: 01/20/2023]
Abstract
Forest ecosystems in eastern North America have been in flux for the last several thousand years, well before Euro‐American land clearance and the 20th‐century onset of anthropogenic climate change. However, the magnitude and uncertainty of prehistoric vegetation change have been difficult to quantify because of the multiple ecological, dispersal, and sedimentary processes that govern the relationship between forest composition and fossil pollen assemblages. Here we extend STEPPS, a Bayesian hierarchical spatiotemporal pollen–vegetation model, to estimate changes in forest composition in the upper Midwestern United States from about 2,100 to 300 yr ago. Using this approach, we find evidence for large changes in the relative abundance of some species, and significant changes in community composition. However, these changes took place against a regional background of changes that were small in magnitude or not statistically significant, suggesting complexity in the spatiotemporal patterns of forest dynamics. The single largest change is the infilling of Tsuga canadensis in northern Wisconsin over the past 2,000 yr. Despite range infilling, the range limit of T. canadensis was largely stable, with modest expansion westward. The regional ecotone between temperate hardwood forests and northern mixed hardwood/conifer forests shifted southwestward by 15–20 km in Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin. Fraxinus, Ulmus, and other mesic hardwoods expanded in the Big Woods region of southern Minnesota. The increasing density of paleoecological data networks and advances in statistical modeling approaches now enables the confident detection of subtle but significant changes in forest composition over the last 2,000 yr.
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Affiliation(s)
- Andria Dawson
- Department of General Education, Mount Royal University, Calgary, Alberta, T3E6K6, Canada
| | | | - Simon J Goring
- Department of Geography and Center for Climatic Research, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin, 53706, USA
| | - Stephen T Jackson
- Department of the Interior Southwest Climate Science Center, U.S. Geological Survey, Tucson, Arizona, 85721, USA.,Department of Geosciences, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona, 85721, USA
| | - Jason S McLachlan
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, Indiana, 46556, USA
| | - John W Williams
- Department of Geography and Center for Climatic Research, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin, 53706, USA
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18
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Danneyrolles V, Dupuis S, Fortin G, Leroyer M, de Römer A, Terrail R, Vellend M, Boucher Y, Laflamme J, Bergeron Y, Arseneault D. Stronger influence of anthropogenic disturbance than climate change on century-scale compositional changes in northern forests. Nat Commun 2019; 10:1265. [PMID: 30894543 PMCID: PMC6426862 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-09265-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 66] [Impact Index Per Article: 13.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/10/2018] [Accepted: 02/28/2019] [Indexed: 11/10/2022] Open
Abstract
Predicting future ecosystem dynamics depends critically on an improved understanding of how disturbances and climate change have driven long-term ecological changes in the past. Here we assembled a dataset of >100,000 tree species lists from the 19th century across a broad region (>130,000km2) in temperate eastern Canada, as well as recent forest inventories, to test the effects of changes in anthropogenic disturbance, temperature and moisture on forest dynamics. We evaluate changes in forest composition using four indices quantifying the affinities of co-occurring tree species with temperature, drought, light and disturbance. Land-use driven shifts favouring more disturbance-adapted tree species are far stronger than any effects ascribable to climate change, although the responses of species to disturbance are correlated with their expected responses to climate change. As such, anthropogenic and natural disturbances are expected to have large direct effects on forests and also indirect effects via altered responses to future climate change. Separating anthropogenic and climatic impacts on forest compositions can be challenging due to a lack of data. Here the authors look at forest compositional changes in eastern Canada since the 19th century and find land use has most strongly shaped communities towards disturbance-adapted species.
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Affiliation(s)
- Victor Danneyrolles
- Département de biologie, chimie et géographie, Université du Québec à Rimouski, Rimouski, QC, G5L 3A1, Canada. .,Chaire industrielle CRSNG-UQAT-UQAM en Aménagement Forestier Durable, Université du Québec en Abitibi-Témiscamingue, Rouyn-Noranda, QC, J9X 5E4, Canada. .,Centre d'étude de la forêt (CEF), Montréal, QC, H2X 1Y4, Canada.
| | - Sébastien Dupuis
- Département de biologie, chimie et géographie, Université du Québec à Rimouski, Rimouski, QC, G5L 3A1, Canada
| | - Gabriel Fortin
- Département de biologie, chimie et géographie, Université du Québec à Rimouski, Rimouski, QC, G5L 3A1, Canada
| | - Marie Leroyer
- Département de biologie, chimie et géographie, Université du Québec à Rimouski, Rimouski, QC, G5L 3A1, Canada
| | - André de Römer
- Département de biologie, chimie et géographie, Université du Québec à Rimouski, Rimouski, QC, G5L 3A1, Canada
| | - Raphaële Terrail
- Département de biologie, chimie et géographie, Université du Québec à Rimouski, Rimouski, QC, G5L 3A1, Canada
| | - Mark Vellend
- Centre d'étude de la forêt (CEF), Montréal, QC, H2X 1Y4, Canada.,Département de Biologie, Université de Sherbrooke, Sherbrooke, QC, J1K 2R1, Canada
| | - Yan Boucher
- Centre d'étude de la forêt (CEF), Montréal, QC, H2X 1Y4, Canada.,Direction de la recherche forestière, Ministère des Forêts, de la Faune et des Parcs, Québec, QC, G1P 3W8, Canada
| | - Jason Laflamme
- Centre d'étude de la forêt (CEF), Montréal, QC, H2X 1Y4, Canada.,Direction des inventaires forestiers, Ministère des Forêts, de la Faune et des Parcs, Québec, QC, G1H 6R1, Canada
| | - Yves Bergeron
- Chaire industrielle CRSNG-UQAT-UQAM en Aménagement Forestier Durable, Université du Québec en Abitibi-Témiscamingue, Rouyn-Noranda, QC, J9X 5E4, Canada.,Centre d'étude de la forêt (CEF), Montréal, QC, H2X 1Y4, Canada
| | - Dominique Arseneault
- Département de biologie, chimie et géographie, Université du Québec à Rimouski, Rimouski, QC, G5L 3A1, Canada.,Centre d'étude de la forêt (CEF), Montréal, QC, H2X 1Y4, Canada
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19
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Hanberry BB, Bragg DC, Hutchinson TF. A reconceptualization of open oak and pine ecosystems of eastern North America using a forest structure spectrum. Ecosphere 2018. [DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.2431] [Citation(s) in RCA: 27] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/10/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Brice B. Hanberry
- USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station; 8221 Mount Rushmore Road Rapid City South Dakota 57702 USA
| | - Don C. Bragg
- USDA Forest Service, Southern Research Station; P.O. Box 3516 UAM Monticello Arkansas 71656 USA
| | - Todd F. Hutchinson
- USDA Forest Service, Northern Research Station; 359 Main Road Delaware Ohio 43015 USA
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20
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Broderick CM. Sharp Savanna-forest Transitions in the Midwest Followed Environmental Gradients but are Absent from the Modern Landscape. AMERICAN MIDLAND NATURALIST 2018. [DOI: 10.1674/0003-0031-180.1.1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/19/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Caitlin M. Broderick
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, Indiana 46556
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21
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Cogbill CV, Thurman AL, Williams JW, Zhu J, Mladenoff DJ, Goring SJ. A retrospective on the accuracy and precision of plotless forest density estimators in ecological studies. Ecosphere 2018. [DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.2187] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
| | - Andrew L. Thurman
- Department of Internal Medicine University of Iowa Iowa City Iowa 52242 USA
| | - John W. Williams
- Department of Geography University of Wisconsin–Madison Madison Wisconsin 53706 USA
- Center for Climatic Research University of Wisconsin–Madison Madison Wisconsin 53706 USA
| | - Jun Zhu
- Department of Statistics University of Wisconsin–Madison Madison Wisconsin 53706 USA
| | - David J. Mladenoff
- Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology University of Wisconsin–Madison Madison Wisconsin 53706 USA
| | - Simon J. Goring
- Department of Geography University of Wisconsin–Madison Madison Wisconsin 53706 USA
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22
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Goring SJ, Williams JW. Effect of historical land-use and climate change on tree-climate relationships in the upper Midwestern United States. Ecol Lett 2017; 20:461-470. [PMID: 28266093 DOI: 10.1111/ele.12747] [Citation(s) in RCA: 20] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/26/2016] [Revised: 10/31/2016] [Accepted: 01/16/2017] [Indexed: 11/27/2022]
Abstract
Contemporary forest inventory data are widely used to understand environmental controls on tree species distributions and to construct models to project forest responses to climate change, but the stability and representativeness of contemporary tree-climate relationships are poorly understood. We show that tree-climate relationships for 15 tree genera in the upper Midwestern US have significantly altered over the last two centuries due to historical land-use and climate change. Realised niches have shifted towards higher minimum temperatures and higher rainfall. A new attribution method implicates both historical climate change and land-use in these shifts, with the relative importance varying among genera and climate variables. Most climate/land-use interactions are compounding, in which historical land-use reinforces shifts in species-climate relationships toward wetter distributions, or confounding, in which land-use complicates shifts towards warmer distributions. Compounding interactions imply that contemporary-based models of species distributions may underestimate species resilience to climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Simon J Goring
- Department of Geography University of Wisconsin, Madison, 550 N Park St, Madison, WI, 53706, USA
| | - John W Williams
- Department of Geography University of Wisconsin, Madison, 550 N Park St, Madison, WI, 53706, USA.,Center for Climatic Research University of Wisconsin, Madison, 1225 W Dayton St., Madison, WI, 53706, USA
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