Predictors of Increased Risk of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Patients with Type 2 Diabetes

The Association Between Serum Gamma-Glutamyl Transferase and Gastrointestinal Cancer Risk: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

BACKGROUND

Gamma-glutamyl transferase (GGT) has been shown to have associations with several diseases including cancers. Previous studies have investigated the effect of GGT levels on the gastrointestinal (GI) cancer incidence. We aim to systematically investigate these studies to provide better insights into the interrelationship between GGT and GI cancers.

METHODS

Online databases were searched to find relevant studies investigating different GGT levels' effects on the incidence of GI cancers including colorectal, esophageal, liver, pancreas, gastric, and biliary duct cancers. Random-effect meta-analysis was conducted to pool the hazard ratios (HRs) of GGT quartiles (Qs) effect on cancer incidence.

RESULTS

A total of 26 studies were included in the final review, 12 of which underwent meta-analysis that investigated 11 million patients. Based on the meta-analysis, Q4 patients had a 69% higher hazard of GI cancer incidence (HR 1.69, 95% CI 1.41-2.02, p-value < 0.001). The hazard ratio significance was also similar for Q3 (HR 1.22, 95% CI 1.15-1.30, p-value < 0.001) and Q2 (HR 1.10, 95% CI 1.05-1.16, p-value =0.002) of GGT. Colorectal and liver cancers showed a higher hazard ratio among Q2, Q3, and Q4 of GGT compared to Q1. In pancreas and bile duct cancers, only Q4 of GGT had significantly higher HR. Q3 and Q4 of GGT levels had statistically significant associations with gastric cancer incidence.

CONCLUSION

Higher GGT levels correlate with higher rates of GI cancer incidence, especially in colorectal and hepatic cancers. Future studies should investigate this biomarker's potential role in risk assessment for digestive cancers.

Comparison of models to predict incident chronic liver disease: a systematic review and external validation in Chinese adults

BACKGROUND

Risk prediction models can identify individuals at high risk of chronic liver disease (CLD), but there is limited evidence on the performance of various models in diverse populations. We aimed to systematically review CLD prediction models, meta-analyze their performance, and externally validate them in 0.5 million Chinese adults in the China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB).

METHODS

Models were identified through a systematic review and categorized by the target population and outcomes (hepatocellular carcinoma [HCC] and CLD). The performance of models to predict 10-year risk of CLD was assessed by discrimination (C-index) and calibration (observed vs predicted probabilies).

RESULTS

The systematic review identified 57 articles and 114 models (28.4% undergone external validation), including 13 eligible for validation in CKB. Models with high discrimination (C-index ≥ 0.70) in CKB were as follows: (1) general population: Li-2018 and Wen 1-2012 for HCC, CLivD score (non-lab and lab) and dAAR for CLD; (2) hepatitis B virus (HBV) infected individuals: Cao-2021 for HCC and CAP-B for CLD. In CKB, all models tended to overestimate the risk (O:E ratio 0.55-0.94). In meta-analysis, we further identified models with high discrimination: (1) general population (C-index ≥ 0.70): Sinn-2020, Wen 2-2012, and Wen 3-2012 for HCC, and FIB-4 and Forns for CLD; (2) HBV infected individuals (C-index ≥ 0.80): RWS-HCC and REACH-B IIa for HCC and GAG-HCC for HCC and CLD.

CONCLUSIONS

Several models showed good discrimination and calibration in external validation, indicating their potential feasibility for risk stratification in population-based screening programs for CLD in Chinese adults.

Scoring System for Predicting the Risk of Liver Cancer among Diabetes Patients: A Random Survival Forest-Guided Approach

BACKGROUND

Most liver cancer scoring systems focus on patients with preexisting liver diseases such as chronic viral hepatitis or liver cirrhosis. Patients with diabetes are at higher risk of developing liver cancer than the general population. However, liver cancer scoring systems for patients in the absence of liver diseases or those with diabetes remain rare. This study aims to develop a risk scoring system for liver cancer prediction among diabetes patients and a sub-model among diabetes patients without cirrhosis/chronic viral hepatitis.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study was performed using electronic health records of Hong Kong. Patients who received diabetes care in general outpatient clinics between 2010 and 2019 without cancer history were included and followed up until December 2019. The outcome was diagnosis of liver cancer during follow-up. A risk scoring system was developed by applying random survival forest in variable selection, and Cox regression in weight assignment.

RESULTS

The liver cancer incidence was 0.92 per 1000 person-years. Patients who developed liver cancer (n = 1995) and those who remained free of cancer (n = 1969) during follow-up (median: 6.2 years) were selected for model building. In the final time-to-event scoring system, presence of chronic hepatitis B/C, alanine aminotransferase, age, presence of cirrhosis, and sex were included as predictors. The concordance index was 0.706 (95%CI: 0.676-0.741). In the sub-model for patients without cirrhosis/chronic viral hepatitis, alanine aminotransferase, age, triglycerides, and sex were selected as predictors.

CONCLUSIONS

The proposed scoring system may provide a parsimonious score for liver cancer risk prediction among diabetes patients.

Association between blood lipid levels and the risk of liver cancer: a systematic review and meta-analysis

PURPOSE

The association between blood lipid levels and the risk of developing liver cancer remains a subject of ongoing debate. To elucidate this association, we conducted a meta-analysis by systematically incorporating data from all relevant prospective cohort studies.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic search of the PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and Cochrane Library databases covering studies published from database inception through July 2023. This study included prospective cohort studies related to lipid profiles (e.g., total cholesterol (TC), triglyceride (TG), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) levels) that reported hazard ratios (HRs) or relative risks (RRs) with corresponding 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) to investigate their association with the risk of liver cancer. During the analysis process, we used fixed-effects or random-effects models based on the level of heterogeneity among the studies and obtained pooled risk ratios using these models. To ensure the robustness and reliability of the study findings, we also conducted sensitivity analyses and publication bias analyses.

RESULTS

After conducting a systematic search, 12 studies were identified from a total of 11,904 articles and were included in the meta-analysis. These studies included a combined population of 10,765,221 participants, among whom 31,055 cases of liver cancer were reported. The analysis revealed that the pooled HR for the serum TC concentration (highest versus lowest) was 0.45 (95% CI = 0.35-0.58, I2 = 78%). For TGs, the HR was 0.67 (95% CI = 0.46-0.96, I2 = 86%), while for HDL-C, the HR was 0.72 (95% CI = 0.58-0.90, I2 = 65%). The HR for LDL-C was 0.51 (95% CI = 0.23-1.13, I2 = 93%).

CONCLUSION

The findings of this study indicate that serum TC, TG, and HDL-C levels are negatively associated with liver cancer risk, suggesting that higher concentrations of these lipids are associated with a reduced risk of liver cancer. However, no significant association has been found between LDL-C levels and liver cancer risk.

A prospective study on the prevalence of at-risk MASH in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus in the United States

BACKGROUND

There are limited data on the prevalence and treatment of at-risk metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH) among patients with type 2 diabetes (T2DM) in the United States.

AIM

To estimate the prevalence of at-risk MASH in a prospectively recruited cohort of adults with T2DM using new nomenclature endorsed by multiple societies.

METHODS

This prospective study enrolled adults aged ≥50 with T2DM from primary care and endocrinology clinics in southern California from 2016 to 2023. Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) was defined by an magnetic resonance imaging proton density fat fraction ≥5% and at least one metabolic risk factor without any other chronic liver disease or secondary cause for hepatic steatosis.

RESULTS

We included 530 adult patients with T2DM. The mean (±SD) age and body mass index (BMI) were 64.4 (±8.1) years and 31.5 (±6.1) kg/m2, respectively. Among patients with T2DM, the prevalence of MASLD, at-risk MASH and cirrhosis was 69.6%, 13.6% and 6.8%, respectively. Among patients with co-existing T2DM and obesity, the prevalence of MASLD, at-risk MASH and cirrhosis was 77.8%, 15.9% and 9.0%, respectively, and was higher than in participants without obesity (p < 0.0001, 0.0543 and 0.0128, respectively).

CONCLUSION

Among adults aged ≥50 years with T2DM, the prevalence of MASLD, at-risk MASH and cirrhosis is high, posing a significant risk for liver-related morbidity and mortality. Approximately 14% of patients with T2DM may be candidates for pharmacologic therapies specific to MASH-related fibrosis.

Development and prognosis of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with diabetes

The incidence of diabetes mellitus and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) has been increasing worldwide during the last few decades, in the context of an increasing prevalence of obesity and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). Epidemiologic studies have revealed that patients with diabetes have a 2- to 3-fold increased risk of developing HCC, independent of the severity and cause of the underlying liver disease. A bidirectional relationship exists between diabetes and liver disease: advanced liver disease promotes the onset of diabetes, and HCC is an important cause of death in patients with diabetes; conversely, diabetes is a risk factor for liver fibrosis progression and HCC development, and may worsen the long-term prognosis of patients with HCC. The existence of close interconnections among diabetes, obesity, and NAFLD causes insulin resistance-related hyperinsulinemia, increased oxidative stress, and chronic inflammation, which are assumed to be the underlying causes of hepatocarcinogenesis in patients with diabetes. No appropriate surveillance methods for HCC development in patients with diabetes have been established, and liver diseases, including HCC, are often overlooked as complications of diabetes. Although some antidiabetic drugs are expected to prevent HCC development, further research on the optimal use of antidiabetic drugs aimed at hepatoprotection is warranted. Given the increasing medical and socioeconomic impact of diabetes on HCC development, diabetologists and hepatologists need to work together to develop strategies to address this emerging health issue. This article reviews the current knowledge on the impact of diabetes on the development and progression of HCC.

Prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma risk in patients with type-2 diabetes using supervised machine learning classification model

Background

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) among type-2 diabetes (T2D) patients is an increasing burden to diabetes management. This study aims to develop and select the best machine learning (ML) classification model for predicting HCC in T2D for HCC early detection.

Methods

A case-control study was conducted utilising computerised medical records in two hepatobiliary centres. The predictors were chosen using multiple logistic regression. IBM SPSS Modeler® was used to assess the discriminative performance of support vector machine (SVM), logistic regression (LR), artificial neural network (ANN), chi-square automatic interaction detection (CHAID), and their ensembles.

Results

Subjects (N = 424) were split into 60% training (n = 248) and 40% testing (n = 176) groups. The independent predictors identified were race, viral hepatitis, abdominal pain/discomfort, unintentional weight loss, statins, alcohol consumption, non-alcoholic fatty liver, platelet <150 ×10³/μL, alkaline phosphatase >129 IU/L, and alanine transaminase ≥25 IU/L. The performances of all models differed significantly (Cochran’s Q-test,p = 0.001) but not between the ensembled and SVM model (McNemar test, p = 0.687). SVM model was selected as the best model due to its simplicity, high accuracy (85.28%), and high AUC (0.914). A web-based application was developed using the best model’s algorithm for HCC prediction.

Conclusions

If further validation studies confirm these results, the SVM model’s application potentially augments early HCC detection in T2D patients.

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Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in type-2 diabetes (T2D) is increasing.

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A web-based application using a machine learning model has been developed.

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The model has 85.28% accuracy and high AUC (0.914) in HCC prediction.

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Potential risk stratification tool in T2D clinic to predict HCC.

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HCC prediction in T2D clinic may aid early detection and improve survival.

Risk factors of hepatocellular carcinoma in type 2 diabetes patients: A two-centre study in a developing country

Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is increasingly known as a risk factor of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). In this study, we determined the risk factors associated with HCC in T2DM patients. This was a matched case-control study conducted at two hepatobiliary referral centres in a developing country. Patients' sociodemographic, clinical, and biochemical characteristics between 1 January 2012 and 30 June 2018 were extracted from the electronic medical records and analysed using multivariate logistic regression analysis. A total of 212 case-control pairs were included. Significant risk factors included Chinese and Malay ethnicities that interacted with viral hepatitis (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 11.77, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.39-99.79) and (AOR = 37.94, 95% CI: 3.92-367.61) respectively, weight loss (AOR = 5.28, 95% CI: 2.29-12.19), abdominal pain/ discomfort (AOR = 6.73, 95% CI: 3.34-13.34), alcohol (AOR = 4.08, 95% CI: 1.81-9.22), fatty liver (AOR = 3.29, 95% CI: 1.40-7.76), low platelet (AOR = 4.03, 95% CI:1.90-8.55), raised alanine transaminase (AOR = 2.11, 95% CI: 1.16-3.86). and alkaline phosphatase (ALP) levels (AOR = 2.17, 95% CI: 1.17-4.00). Statins reduced the risk of HCC by 63% (AOR = 0.37, 95% CI: 0.21-0.65). The identification of these factors aids the risk stratification for HCC among T2DM patients for early detection and decision-making in patient management in the primary care setting.

Surveillance for Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Patients with Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease: Universal or Selective?

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), the most frequent primary liver cancer, is the sixth most common cancer, the fourth leading cause of cancer-related deaths worldwide, and accounts globally for about 800,000 deaths/year. Early detection of HCC is of pivotal importance as it is associated with improved survival and the ability to apply curative treatments. Chronic liver diseases, and in particular cirrhosis, are the main risk factors for HCC, but the etiology of liver disease is rapidly changing due to improvements in the prevention and treatment of HBV (Hepatitis B virus) and HCV (Hepatitis C virus) infections and to the rising incidence of the metabolic syndrome, of which non-alcoholic fatty liver (NAFLD) is a manifestation. NAFLD is now a recognized and rapidly increasing cause of cirrhosis and HCC. Indeed, the most recent guidelines for NAFLD management recommend screening for HCC in patients with established cirrhosis. Screening in NAFLD patients without cirrhosis is not recommended; however, the prevalence of HCC in this group of NAFLD patients has been reported to be as high as 38%, a proportion significantly higher than the one observed in the general population and in non-cirrhotic subjects with other causes of liver disease. Unfortunately, solid data regarding the risk stratification of patients with non-cirrhotic NAFLD who might best benefit from HCC surveillance are scarce, and specific recommendations in this field are urgently needed due to the increasing NAFLD epidemic, at least in Western countries. To further complicate matters, liver ultrasonography, which represents the current standard for HCC surveillance, has a decreased diagnostic accuracy in patients with NAFLD, and therefore disease-specific surveillance tools will be required for the early identification of HCC in this population. In this review, we summarize the most recent evidence on the epidemiology and risk factors for HCC in patients with NAFLD, with and without cirrhosis, and the evidence supporting surveillance for early HCC detection in these patients, reviewing the potential limitations of currently recommended surveillance strategies, and assessing data on the accuracy of potential new screening tools. At this stage it is difficult to propose general recommendations, and best clinical judgement should be exercised, based on the profile of risk factors specific to each patient.

Chronic Viral Hepatitis Signifies the Association of Premixed Insulin Analogues with Liver Cancer Risks: A Nationwide Population-Based Study

This study sought to determine whether chronic hepatitis B or C would modify the association between insulin analogues and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risks. We conducted a nationwide nested case-control study for HCC cases and matched controls from 2003 to 2013 among newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes patients on any antidiabetic agents in Taiwan before and after exclusion of chronic viral hepatitis, respectively. A total of 5832 and 1237 HCC cases were identified before and after exclusion of chronic viral hepatitis, respectively. Incident HCC risks were positively associated with any use of premixed insulin analogues (adjusted odds ratio (OR), 1.27; 95% CI 1.04 to 1.55) among total participants, especially among current users (adjusted OR, 1.45; 95% CI 1.12 to 1.89). However, the association between HCC occurrence and premixed insulin analogues diminished among participants without chronic viral hepatitis (adjusted OR, 1.35; 95% CI 0.92 to 1.98). We also observed a significant multiplicative interaction between chronic viral hepatitis and premixed insulin analogues on HCC risks (P = 0.010). Conclusions: Chronic viral hepatitis signifies the role of premixed insulin analogues in HCC oncogenesis. We recommend a closer liver surveillance among patients prescribed premixed insulin analogues with concomitant chronic viral hepatitis.

Alcohol and hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Alcohol is classified as a Group 1 carcinogen by the International Agency for Research on Cancer because it induces hepatocellular carcinoma (among other cancers) in humans. An excessive alcohol intake may result in fatty liver, acute/chronic hepatitis, and cirrhosis and eventually lead to hepatocellular carcinoma. It has been reported that alcohol abuse increases the relative risk of hepatocellular carcinoma by 3- to 10-fold.

AIM AND METHODS

To clarify the known mechanisms of alcohol-related carcinogenesis, we searched Pubmed using the terms alcohol and immune mechanism, alcohol and cancer, and immune mechanism and cancer and summarized the articles as a qualitative review.

RESULTS

From a clinical perspective, it is well known that alcohol interacts with other factors, such as smoking, viral hepatitis, and diabetes, leading to an increased risk of hepatocellular carcinoma. There are several possible mechanisms through which alcohol may induce liver carcinogenicity, including the mutagenic effects of acetaldehyde and the production of ROS due to the excessive hepatic deposition of iron. Furthermore, it has been reported that alcohol accelerates hepatitis C virus-induced liver tumorigenesis through TLR4 signaling. Despite intense investigations to elucidate the mechanisms, they remain poorly understood.

CONCLUSION

This review summarizes the recent findings of clinical and pathological studies that have investigated the carcinogenic effects of alcohol in the liver.

Managing diabetes and liver disease association

There is strong association between liver diseases and diabetes (DM) which is higher than expected by a chance association of two very common disorders. It can be classified into three categories: Liver disease related to diabetes, hepatogenous diabetes (HD), and liver disease occurring coincidentally with DM. The criteria for the diagnosis of diabetes associating liver disease are the same for primary diabetes. Two hours post glucose load is a better screening test for HD. HbA1c may not be suitable for diagnosis or monitoring of diabetes associating advanced liver disease. Apart from the increased cardiovascular risk in patients with type 2 DM (T2 DM) and NAFLD, the cardiovascular and retinopathy risk is low in HD. Patients with metabolic derangement should be screened for NAFLD which in turn may predict T2 DM development. Similarly, patients with established T2 DM should also be screened for NAFLD which further contributes to diabetes worsening. Diabetes is a significant risk factor for progression of the chronic liver disease. It is associated with poor patient survival. Treatment of diabetes associating liver disease appears beneficial. Metformin, if tolerated and not contraindicated, is recommended as a first-line therapy for patients with diabetes and chronic liver disease (CLD). If the hepatic disease is severe, insulin secretagogues should be avoided because of the increased risk of hypoglycaemia. Pioglitazone may be useful in patients with fatty liver disease. DPP-4 inhibitors showed effectiveness and safety for the treatment of T2 DM in CLD patients up to those with child B stage. GLP-1 receptor agonists and SGLT-2 inhibitors exhibit positive effects on weight and are associated with minimal risk of hypoglycaemia. Insulin must be used with caution, as hypoglycaemia may be a problem. Insulin analogues are preferred in the context of hypoglycaemia Statins can be used to treat dyslipidaemia in NAFLD, also the use of angiotensin II receptor antagonist for hypertension is safe and beneficial Given the clear association between diabetes mellitus and hepatocellular carcinoma, the strict control of glycaemia with insulin sensitizers can be essential in its prevention. The addition of DM to the currently used scores (Child-Pugh and MELD scores) may enhance the sensitivity and the specificity for prediction of morbidity and mortality rates in cirrhotic patients. In the new era of directly acting antiviral agents (DAAs) for HCV treatment, it is recommended to follow up lipid profile and blood sugar levels following SVR in order to adjust doses of medications used in diabetic (SVR is associated with reduction in insulin requirements) and dyslipidaemic patients (rebound increase in the lipid profile after clearing the virus may increase risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD)). The issues of post liver transplant diabetes and relation between DM and chronic HBV are highlighted. This narrative review and Consensus-based practice guidance (under revision and criticism) are based on a formal review and analysis of the recently published world literature on the topic (Medline search up to September 2017); and the experience of the authors and independent reviewers.

Risk score system for the prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with type 2 diabetes: Taiwan Diabetes Study

This study aims to develop a risk score system for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with type 2 diabetes using the Taiwan National Diabetes Care Management Program database. This retrospective cohort study included 31,723 Chinese patients who had type 2 diabetes, aged 30-84 years. Participants were randomly grouped into derivation and validation sets in 2:1 ratio. Cox proportional hazard regression models were used to identify the risk factors of HCC in the derivation set. Discrimination ability of the model was assessed by means of a receiver operating characteristic curve and performance was expressed as the c statistic, assessed internally on validation data sets. The average follow-up was 8.33 years with 748 HCC incident cases in the derivation set. The final HCC risk score system included age (-2 to 8 points), gender (0-2 points), smoking (0-2 points), variation in hemoglobin A1c (0-1 point), serum glutamic-pyruvic transaminase (0-6 points), liver cirrhosis (9 points), hepatitis B (4 points), hepatitis C (3 points), antidiabetes medications (0-3 points), and antihyperlipidemia medications and total/high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio (-4 to 2 points). The HCC risk score was the sum of these individual scores (range -6 to 40). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for 3-, 5-, and 10-year HCC risks was 0.81, 0.80, and 0.77 for the derivation set, respectively. This HCC risk score system has good prediction accuracy and discriminatory ability, and serves a simple tool for HCC risk prediction.

A Different Perspective for Management of Diabetes Mellitus: Controlling Viral Liver Diseases

Knowing how to prevent and treat diabetes mellitus (DM) earlier is essential to improving outcomes. Through participating in synthesis and catabolism of glycogen, the liver helps to regulate glucose homeostasis. Viral related liver diseases are associated with glycometabolism disorders, which means effective management of viral liver diseases may be a therapeutic strategy for DM. The present article reviews the correlation between DM and liver diseases to give an update of the management of DM rooted by viral liver diseases.