Modelling the Dynamics of Post-Vaccination Immunity Rate in a Population of Sahelian Sheep after a Vaccination Campaign against Peste des Petits Ruminants Virus

Modelling flock heterogeneity in the transmission of peste des petits ruminants virus and its impact on the effectiveness of vaccination for eradication

Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) is an acute infectious disease of small ruminants targeted for global eradication by 2030. The Global Strategy for Control and Eradication (GSCE) recommends mass vaccination targeting 70% coverage of small ruminant populations in PPR-endemic regions. These small ruminant populations are diverse with heterogeneous mixing patterns that may influence PPR virus (PPRV) transmission dynamics. This paper evaluates the impact of heterogeneous mixing on (i) PPRV transmission and (ii) the likelihood of different vaccination strategies achieving PPRV elimination, including the GSCE recommended strategy. We develop models simulating heterogeneous transmission between hosts, including a metapopulation model of PPRV transmission between villages in lowland Ethiopia fitted to serological data. Our results demonstrate that although heterogeneous mixing of small ruminant populations increases the instability of PPRV transmission-increasing the chance of fadeout in the absence of intervention-a vaccination coverage of 70% may be insufficient to achieve elimination if high-risk populations are not targeted. Transmission may persist despite very high vaccination coverage (>90% small ruminants) if vaccination is biased towards more accessible but lower-risk populations such as sedentary small ruminant flocks. These results highlight the importance of characterizing small ruminant mobility patterns and identifying high-risk populations for vaccination and support a move towards targeted, risk-based vaccination programmes in the next phase of the PPRV eradication programme. Our modelling approach also illustrates a general framework for incorporating heterogeneous mixing patterns into models of directly transmitted infectious diseases where detailed contact data are limited. This study improves understanding of PPRV transmission and elimination in heterogeneous small ruminant populations and should be used to inform and optimize the design of PPRV vaccination programmes.

Prioritizing smallholder animal health needs in East Africa, West Africa, and South Asia using three approaches: Literature review, expert workshops, and practitioner surveys

Managing the health needs of livestock contributes to reducing poverty and improving the livelihoods of smallholder and pastoralist livestock keepers globally. Animal health practitioners, producers, policymakers, and researchers all must prioritize how to mobilize limited resources. This study employed three approaches to prioritize animal health needs in East and West Africa and South Asia to identify diseases and syndromes that impact livestock keepers. The approaches were a) systematic literature review, b) a series of expert workshops, and c) a practitioner survey of veterinarians and para-veterinary professionals. The top constraints that emerged from all three approaches include endo/ ectoparasites, foot and mouth disease, brucellosis, peste des petits ruminants, Newcastle disease, and avian influenza. Expert workshops additionally identified contagious caprine pleuropneumonia, contagious bovine pleuropneumonia, mastitis, and reproductive disorders as constraints not emphasized in the literature review. Practitioner survey results additionally identified nutrition as a constraint for smallholder dairy and pastoralist small ruminant production. Experts attending the workshops agreed most constraints can be managed using existing veterinary technologies and best husbandry practices, which supports a shift away from focusing on individual diseases and new technologies towards addressing systemic challenges that limit access to veterinary services and inputs. Few research studies focused on incidence/ prevalence of disease and impact, suggesting better incorporation of socio-economic impact measures in future research would better represent the interests of livestock keepers.

Assessing the Risk of Occurrence of Bluetongue in Senegal

Bluetongue is a non-contagious viral disease affecting small ruminants and cattle that can cause severe economic losses in the livestock sector. The virus is transmitted by certain species of the genus Culicoides and consequently, understanding their distribution is essential to enable the identification of high-risk transmission areas. In this work we use bioclimatic and environmental variables to predict vector abundance, and estimate spatial variations in the basic reproductive ratio  R0. The resulting estimates were combined with livestock mobility and serological data to assess the risk of Bluetongue outbreaks in Senegal. The results show an increasing abundance of C. imicola, C. oxystoma, C. enderleini, and C. miombo from north to south. R0 < 1 for most areas of Senegal, whilst southern (Casamance) and southeastern (Kedougou and part of Tambacounda) agro-pastoral areas have the highest risk of outbreak (R0 = 2.7 and 2.9, respectively). The next higher risk areas are in the Senegal River Valley (R0 = 1.07), and the Atlantic coast zones. Seroprevalence rates, shown by cELISA, weren't positively correlated with outbreak probability. Future works should include follow-up studies of competent vector abundancies and serological surveys based on the results of the risk analysis conducted here to optimize the national epidemiological surveillance system.

It's risky to wander in September: Modelling the epidemic potential of Rift Valley fever in a Sahelian setting

Estimating the epidemic potential of vector-borne diseases, along with the relative contribution of underlying mechanisms, is crucial for animal and human health worldwide. In West African Sahel, several outbreaks of Rift Valley fever (RVF) have occurred over the last decades, but uncertainty remains about the conditions necessary to trigger these outbreaks. We use the basic reproduction number (R₀) as a measure of RVF epidemic potential in northern Senegal, and map its value in two distinct ecosystems, namely the Ferlo and the Senegal River delta and valley. We consider three consecutive rainy seasons (July-November 2014, 2015 and 2016) and account for several vector and animal species. We parametrize our model with estimates of Aedes vexans arabiensis, Culex poicilipes, Culex tritaeniorhynchus, cattle, sheep and goat abundances. The impact of RVF virus introduction is assessed every week over northern Senegal. We highlight September as the period of highest epidemic potential in northern Senegal, resulting from distinct dynamics in the two study areas. Spatially, in the seasonal environment of the Ferlo, we observe that high-risk locations vary between years. We show that decreased vector densities do not greatly reduce R₀ and that cattle immunity has a greater impact on reducing transmission than small ruminant immunity. The host preferences of vectors and the temperature-dependent time interval between their blood meals are crucial parameters needing further biological investigations.

Post-vaccination herd immunity against peste des petits ruminants and inter-vaccination population turnover in small ruminant flocks in northwest Ethiopia

Vaccination is the main tool for control of peste des petits ruminants (PPR) because of the availability of effective and safe vaccines that provide long lasting protection. However vaccination campaigns may not always provide sufficient herd immunity needed to prevent disease outbreaks because of logistic problems with vaccination such as inappropriate cold chain and vaccine delivery methods, and the rapid population turnover of small ruminants. This study was carried out to assess post-vaccination herd immunity against PPR and inter-vaccination population turnover in small ruminant flocks in Metema district, northwest Ethiopia where frequent PPR outbreaks occur despite regular vaccination. A total of 412 serum samples were collected from selected small ruminants in 72 flocks (average flock size of 33.4 and standard deviation of 30) above three months of age in three kebeles immediately before a vaccination program. One month after the vaccination using freeze dried live attenuated vaccine, 359 serum samples were collected from randomly selected small ruminants in the same flocks. The collected serum samples were analyzed to determine the seropositivity using a monoclonal antibody-based C-ELISA. The pre-vaccination seropositivity of 72.3% (95% CI: 67.8-76.4) increased to 93.9% (95% CI: 90.9-95.9) post-vaccination (P < 0.001). The observed seropositivity following vaccination was above the recommended herd immunity threshold (80%) required to reduce the transmission of infection in the population sufficient to eliminate virus. A survey of sampled flocks six months post-sampling indicated only 68% of animals were still present in these flocks. This population turnover reduces the herd immunity to about 64% which is below the required threshold for control. The high level of herd immunity achieved post-vaccination indicates good vaccine quality, cold chain maintenance and effective vaccine delivery in the district's vaccination campaigns. The decrease in herd immunity associated with population turnover and annual vaccination intervals represents a challenge to effective control and suggests changes to the timing or frequency of the vaccination is required.

Toward peste des petits virus (PPRV) eradication: Diagnostic approaches, novel vaccines, and control strategies

Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) is an acute transboundary infectious viral disease affecting domestic and wild small ruminants' species besides camels reared in Africa, Asia and the Middle East. The virus is a serious paramount challenge to the sustainable agriculture advancement in the developing world. The disease outbreak was also detected for the first time in the European Union namely in Bulgaria at 2018. Therefore, the disease has lately been aimed for eradication with the purpose of worldwide clearance by 2030. Radically, the vaccines needed for effectively accomplishing this aim are presently convenient; however, the availableness of innovative modern vaccines to fulfill the desideratum for Differentiating between Infected and Vaccinated Animals (DIVA) may mitigate time spent and financial disbursement of serological monitoring and surveillance in the advanced levels for any disease obliteration campaign. We here highlight what is at the present time well-known about the virus and the different available diagnostic tools. Further, we interject on current updates and insights on several novel vaccines and on the possible current and prospective strategies to be applied for disease control.

Strategies for the Global Eradication of Peste des Petits Ruminants: An Argument for the Use of Guerrilla Rather Than Trench Warfare

Many historical disease eradication campaigns have been characterized by large-scale mobilization and long-term campaigns of mass vaccination. As the duration of a program increases, the total cost also increases, but the effectiveness and sustainability decrease, sometimes resulting in premature loss of stakeholder support, field team fatigue, and failure or major set-backs. In contrast to this trench warfare approach, this paper proposes an eradication strategy modeled on guerrilla tactics: use exceptionally good, locally relevant and timely intelligence; strike rapidly and effectively in small areas; achieve your goals; and keep moving. For peste des petits ruminants eradication, this means a shift away from long-term mass vaccination, focusing instead on addressing some of the challenges that have plagued previous eradication programs: ineffective surveillance and movement management. Recent developments in surveillance have shown that it is now feasible to capture information about almost all cases of disease, all movements and all control activities, from the entire population in real time. Developing powerful, effective and sustainable surveillance systems is an essential prerequisite for rapid, affordable PPR eradication. PPR can be rapidly eliminated from small populations by achieving very high levels of vaccination coverage for only a short period. The key challenge is then to prevent the re-introduction of disease as immunity wanes, and to respond rapidly and effectively in the case of further local outbreaks. A comprehensive understanding of movement patterns and their drivers will allow rapid progressive eradication to be implemented. The population can be divided into manageably small units, targeted sequentially for high-coverage short-duration vaccination, then moving to the next unit based on the distribution of disease and the direction of animal flow. This approach optimizes the use of available resources, and minimizes the challenge and disruption of managing retrograde movement from infected to uninfected areas. High levels of community engagement are required to achieve the quality of surveillance, movement management and rapid response necessary for success. Traditionally, long-term vaccination has been used to first eliminate the virus from a population, and then to protect it against re-introduction of the disease. Under the guerrilla strategy, continuous real-time information, not long-term vaccination, is the main tool for disease eradication.

PPR Control in a Sahelian Setting: What Vaccination Strategy for Mauritania?

Peste des Petits Ruminants (PPR) is a viral disease affecting domestic and small wild ruminants. Endemic in large parts of the world, PPR causes severe damages to animal production and household economies. In 2015, FAO and OIE launched a global eradication program (GCSE) based on vaccination campaigns. The success of GCSE shall depend on the implementation of vaccination campaigns, accounting for husbandry practices, mobility and the periodicity of small ruminants' population renewal. In Mauritania, PPR outbreaks occur annually despite ongoing annual vaccination campaigns since 2008. Here, we developed a mathematical model to assess the impact of four vaccination strategies (including the GSCE one), the importance of their timing of implementation and the usefulness of individual animal identification on the reduction of PPR burden. The model was calibrated on data collected through ad-hoc surveys about demographic dynamics, disease impact, and national seroprevalence using Monte Carlo Markov Chain procedure. Numerical simulations were used to estimate the number of averted deaths over the next 12 years. The model results showed that the GSCE strategy prevented the largest number of deaths (9.2 million vs. 6.2 for random strategy) and provided one of the highest economic returns among all strategies (Benefit-Cost Ratio around 16 vs. 7 for random strategy). According to its current cost, identification would be a viable investment that could reduce the number of vaccine doses to distribute by 20–60%. Whilst the implementation of the identification system is crucial for PPR control, its success depends also on a coordinated approach at the regional level.

Contextualized re-calculation of enteric methane emission factors for small ruminants in sub-humid Western Africa is far lower than previous estimates

Given the projected growth of methane emission by ruminants in developing countries, there is a clear need for reliable estimates of their contribution to greenhouse gas emissions. Existing studies have rarely considered sheep and goats. The objective of this study was to predict enteric fermentation methane emission factors (EFs) for Djallonké sheep and West African Dwarf goats, following the 2006 IPCC Tier 2 methodology. Estimated enteric methane emission factors, expressed per head of animal per year, were 2.3 kg CH₄ and 2.0 kg CH₄ for sheep and goats species, respectively. Compared with the generic Tier 1 emission factor of 5 kg CH₄ head proposed by the IPCC for small ruminants in the sub-Saharan Africa region, our suggested values are 56% and 60% lower for sheep and goat, respectively. These lower values took account of the particular flock structure of both sheep and goats. These estimates also accounted for differences in live weight according to age and corresponding estimated feed intake. This work is a step forward in the revision of small ruminant emission factors and can further support assessment of mitigation strategies in Senegalese livestock farming systems.

A dynamic model of transmission and elimination of peste des petits ruminants in Ethiopia

Peste des petits ruminants (PPR), a devastating viral disease of sheep and goats, has been targeted by the global community for eradication within the next 15 years. Although an efficacious attenuated live vaccine is available, the lack of knowledge about the transmission potential of PPR virus (PPRV) may compromise eradication efforts. By fitting a metapopulation model simulating PPRV spread to the results of a nationwide serological survey in Ethiopia, we estimated the level of viral transmission in an endemic setting and the vaccination coverage required for elimination. Results suggest that the pastoral production system as a whole acts as a viral reservoir, from which PPRV spills over into the sedentary production system, where viral persistence is uncertain. Estimated levels of PPRV transmission indicate that viral spread could be prevented if the proportion of immune small ruminants is kept permanently above 37% in at least 71% of pastoral village populations. However, due to the high turnover of these populations, maintaining the fraction of immune animals above this threshold would require high vaccine coverage within villages, and vaccination campaigns to be conducted annually. Adapting vaccination strategies to the specific characteristics of the local epidemiological context and small ruminant population dynamics would result in optimized allocation of limited resources and increase the likelihood of PPR eradication.

Predictive gravity models of livestock mobility in Mauritania: The effects of supply, demand and cultural factors

Animal movements are typically driven by areas of supply and demand for animal products and by the seasonality of production and demand. As animals can potentially spread infectious diseases, disease prevention can benefit from a better understanding of the factors influencing movements patterns in space and time. In Mauritania, an important cultural event, called the Tabaski (Aïd el Kebir) strongly affects timing and structure of movements, and due to the arid and semi-arid climatic conditions, the season can also influence movement patterns. In order to better characterize the animal movements patterns, a survey was carried out in 2014, and those data were analysed here using social network analysis (SNA) metrics and used to train predictive gravity models. More specifically, we aimed to contrast the movements structure by ruminant species, season (Tabaski vs. Non-Tabaski) and mode of transport (truck vs. foot). The networks differed according to the species, and to the season, with a changed proportion of truck vs. foot movements. The gravity models were able to predict the probability of a movement link between two locations with moderate to good accuracy (AUC ranging from 0.76 to 0.97), according to species, seasons, and mode of transport, but we failed to predict the traded volume of those trade links. The significant predictor variables of a movement link were the human and sheep population at the source and origin, and the distance separating the locations. Though some improvements would be needed to predict traded volumes and better account for the barriers to mobility, the results provide useful predictions to inform epidemiological models in space and time, and, upon external validation, could be useful to predict movements at a larger regional scale.

Towards the description of livestock mobility in Sahelian Africa: Some results from a survey in Mauritania

Understanding spatio-temporal patterns of host mobility is a key factor to prevent and control animal and human diseases. This is utterly important in low-income countries, where animal disease epidemics have strong socio-economic impacts. In this article we analyzed a livestock mobility database, whose data have been collected by the Centre National d'Elevage et de Recherches Vétérinaires (CNERV) Mauritania, to describe its patterns and temporal evolution. Data were collected through phone and face-to-face interviews in almost all the regions in Mauritania over a period of roughly two weeks during June 2015. The analysis has shown the existence of two mobility patterns throughout the year: the first related to routine movements from January to August; the second strictly connected to the religious festivity of Tabaski that in 2014 occurred at the beginning of October. These mobility patterns are different in terms of animals involved (fewer cattle and dromedaries are traded around Tabaski), the means of transportation (the volume of animals moved by truck raises around Tabaski) and destinations (most of the animals are traded nationally around Tabaski). Due to the differences between these two periods, public health officers, researchers and other stakeholders should take account of the time of the year when implementing vaccination campaigns or creating surveillance networks.

Ex-ante assessment of different vaccination-based control schedules against the peste des petits ruminants virus in sub-Saharan Africa

BACKGROUND

Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) is a highly contagious and widespread viral infection of small ruminants (goats and sheep), causing heavy economic losses in many developing countries. Therefore, its progressive control and global eradication by 2030 was defined as a priority by international organizations addressing animal health. The control phase of the global strategy is based on mass vaccination of small ruminant populations in endemic regions or countries. It is estimated that a 70% post-vaccination immunity rate (PVIR) is needed in a given epidemiological unit to prevent PPR virus spread. However, implementing mass vaccination is difficult and costly in smallholder farming systems with scattered livestock and limited facilities. Regarding this, controlling PPR is a special challenge in sub-Saharan Africa. In this study, we focused on this region to assess the effect of several variables of PVIR in two contrasted smallholder farming systems.

METHODS

Using a seasonal matrix population model of PVIR, we estimated its decay in goats reared in sub-humid areas, and sheep reared in semi-arid areas, over a 4-year vaccination program. Assuming immunologically naive and PPR-free epidemiological unit, we assessed the ability of different vaccination scenarios to reach the 70% PVIR throughout the program. The tested scenarios differed in i) their overall schedule, ii) their delivery month and iii) their vaccination coverage.

RESULTS

In sheep reared in semi-arid areas, the vaccination month did affect the PVIR decay though it did not in goats in humid regions. In both cases, our study highlighted i) the importance of targeting the whole eligible population at least during the two first years of the vaccination program and ii) the importance of reaching a vaccination coverage as high as 80% of this population. This study confirmed the relevance of the vaccination schedules recommended by international organizations.