Towards the description of livestock mobility in Sahelian Africa: Some results from a survey in Mauritania

Molecular characterization of peste des petits ruminants virus and Mycoplasma capricolum subsp. capripneumoniae in small ruminants in northern Mauritania, 2023

Global eradication of peste des petits ruminants (PPR) is planned for 2030 by international animal health organizations in collaboration with national partners. As the deadline approaches, it is fundamental that the PPR status in each country is determined. In addition, the identification of other pathogens of small ruminants that share common geographical locations and can produce similar clinical signs is also important for differential diagnosis. With this in mind, 37 samples collected from goats and sheep presenting respiratory symptoms in Mauritania in 2023 were screened for the presence of PPR virus, Capripoxvirus, Pasteurella multocida and Mycoplasma capricolum subspecies capripneumoniae (Mccp) using a one-step multiplex RT-qPCR assay. None of the samples were positive for Capripoxvirus or P. multocida. Nine of them were positive for PPRV and sequence analysis of a segment of the PPRV nucleoprotein revealed that they belonged to lineage IV and were similar to viruses recently identified in Côte D'Ivoire, Guinea, and Niger indicating transboundary movement. The full genome of one representative virus was also generated. Mccp was identified in eight samples and multi-locus sequence analysis (MLSA) identified them as belonging to MLSA Group 3 together with Mccps identified in China, Tajikistan, Turkey and the United Arab Emirates. This is the first time that such a study has been undertaken in Mauritania and the data generated should be of interest to those involved in the management of goat diseases in Mauritania and neighbouring countries.

Trading HIV for sheep: Risky sexual behavior and the response of female sex workers to Tabaski in Senegal

We use a cohort of female sex workers (FSWs) in Senegal to show how large anticipated economic shocks lead to increased risky sexual behavior. Exploiting the exogenous timing of interviews, we study the effect of Tabaski, the most important Islamic festival celebrated in Senegal, in which most households purchase an expensive animal for sacrifice. Condom use, measured robustly via the list experiment, falls by between 27.3 percentage points (pp) (65.5%) and 43.1 pp (22.7%) in the 9 days before Tabaski, or a maximum of 49.5 pp (76%) in the 7 day period preceding Tabaski. The evidence suggests the economic pressures from Tabaski are key to driving the behavior change observed through the price premium for condomless sex. Those most exposed to the economic pressure from Tabaski were unlikely to be using condoms at all in the week before the festival. Our findings show that Tabaski leads to increased risky behaviors for FSWs, a key population at high risk of HIV infection, for at least 1 week every year and has implications for FSWs in all countries celebrating Tabaski or similar festivals. Because of the scale, frequency, and size of the behavioral response to shocks of this type, policy should be carefully designed to protect vulnerable women against anticipated shocks.

Modelling flock heterogeneity in the transmission of peste des petits ruminants virus and its impact on the effectiveness of vaccination for eradication

Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) is an acute infectious disease of small ruminants targeted for global eradication by 2030. The Global Strategy for Control and Eradication (GSCE) recommends mass vaccination targeting 70% coverage of small ruminant populations in PPR-endemic regions. These small ruminant populations are diverse with heterogeneous mixing patterns that may influence PPR virus (PPRV) transmission dynamics. This paper evaluates the impact of heterogeneous mixing on (i) PPRV transmission and (ii) the likelihood of different vaccination strategies achieving PPRV elimination, including the GSCE recommended strategy. We develop models simulating heterogeneous transmission between hosts, including a metapopulation model of PPRV transmission between villages in lowland Ethiopia fitted to serological data. Our results demonstrate that although heterogeneous mixing of small ruminant populations increases the instability of PPRV transmission-increasing the chance of fadeout in the absence of intervention-a vaccination coverage of 70% may be insufficient to achieve elimination if high-risk populations are not targeted. Transmission may persist despite very high vaccination coverage (>90% small ruminants) if vaccination is biased towards more accessible but lower-risk populations such as sedentary small ruminant flocks. These results highlight the importance of characterizing small ruminant mobility patterns and identifying high-risk populations for vaccination and support a move towards targeted, risk-based vaccination programmes in the next phase of the PPRV eradication programme. Our modelling approach also illustrates a general framework for incorporating heterogeneous mixing patterns into models of directly transmitted infectious diseases where detailed contact data are limited. This study improves understanding of PPRV transmission and elimination in heterogeneous small ruminant populations and should be used to inform and optimize the design of PPRV vaccination programmes.

Rift Valley fever in West Africa: A zoonotic disease with multiple socio-economic consequences

Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) is an arbovirus that causes Rift Valley fever (RVF), a zoonotic disease that mainly affects domestic and wildlife ruminants and humans. The first epidemic in North-Western and West Africa occurred in Senegal and Mauritania in 1987, two countries where RVF is now endemic. Slaughterhouse workers, farmers, herders and veterinarians are at high risk of exposure to RVF. Beyond the health threat, RVF is considered to cause major socio-economic problems, specifically in developing countries where livestock farming and trade are important economic activities. Indeed, the mortality rate linked to RVF infection can reach 95-100% in newborns and young animals. In West Africa, livestock production is a key factor for food production and for national economics. Epizootics caused by RVF can therefore have serious socio-economic consequences by impacting multisectoral economics, the psycho-social health of pastoral communities, and food security. Improving prevention strategies against RVF, including vaccination, enhancing knowledge of RVF and correcting any inappropriate behaviors by populations of endemics areas, as well as better monitoring of RVF ecological factors are effective ways to better foresee and control outbreaks of RVF and its socio-economical side-effects in countries at high risk of occurrence of the disease.

Arthropod-Borne Viruses in Mauritania: A Literature Review

During the past four decades, recurrent outbreaks of various arthropod-borne viruses have been reported in Mauritania. This review aims to consolidate the current knowledge on the epidemiology of the major arboviruses circulating in Mauritania. Online databases including PubMed and Web of Science were used to retrieve relevant published studies. The results showed that numerous arboviral outbreaks of variable magnitude occurred in almost all 13 regions of Mauritania, with Rift Valley fever (RVF), Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever (CCHF), and dengue (DEN) being the most common infections. Other arboviruses causing yellow fever (YF), chikungunya (CHIK), o'nyong-nyong (ONN), Semliki Forest (SF), West Nile fever (WNF), Bagaza (BAG), Wesselsbron (WSL), and Ngari (NRI) diseases have also been found circulating in humans and/or livestock in Mauritania. The average case fatality rates of CCHF and RVF were 28.7% and 21.1%, respectively. RVF outbreaks have often occurred after unusually heavy rainfalls, while CCHF epidemics have mostly been reported during the dry season. The central and southeastern regions of the country have carried the highest burden of RVF and CCHF. Sheep, cattle, and camels are the main animal reservoirs for the RVF and CCHF viruses. Culex antennatus and Cx. poicilipes mosquitoes and Hyalomma dromedarii, H. rufipes, and Rhipicephalus everesti ticks are the main vectors of these viruses. DEN outbreaks occurred mainly in the urban settings, including in Nouakchott, the capital city, and Aedes aegypti is likely the main mosquito vector. Therefore, there is a need to implement an integrated management strategy for the prevention and control of arboviral diseases based on sensitizing the high-risk occupational groups, such as slaughterhouse workers, shepherds, and butchers for zoonotic diseases, reinforcing vector surveillance and control, introducing rapid point-of-care diagnosis of arboviruses in high-risk areas, and improving the capacities to respond rapidly when the first signs of disease outbreak are identified.

Environmental and economic determinants of temporal dynamics of the ruminant movement network of Senegal

Our understanding of the drivers of the temporal dynamics of livestock mobility networks is currently limited, despite their significant implications for the surveillance and control of infectious diseases. We analyzed the effect of time-varying environmental and economic variables-biomass production, rainfall, livestock market prices, and religious calendar on long-distance movements of cattle and small ruminant herds in Senegal in the years 2014 and 2019. We used principal component analysis to explore the variation of the hypothesized explanatory variables in space and time and a generalized additive modelling approach to assess the effect of those variables on the likelihood of herd movement between pairs of administrative units. Contrary to environmental variables, the patterns of variation of market prices show significant differences across locations. The explanatory variables at origin had the highest contribution to the model deviance reduction. Biomass production and rainfall were found to affect the likelihood of herd movement for both species on at least 1 year. Market price at origin had a strong and consistent effect on the departure of small ruminant herds. Our study shows the potential benefits of regular monitoring of market prices for future efforts at forecasting livestock movements and associated sanitary risks.

Identification of drivers of Rift Valley fever after the 2013–14 outbreak in Senegal using serological data in small ruminants

Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a mosquito-borne disease mostly affecting wild and domestic ruminants. It is widespread in Africa, with spillovers in the Arab Peninsula and the southwestern Indian Ocean. Although RVF has been circulating in West Africa for more than 30 years, its epidemiology is still not clearly understood. In 2013, an RVF outbreak hit Senegal in new areas that weren’t ever affected before. To assess the extent of the spread of RVF virus, a national serological survey was implemented in young small ruminants (6–18 months old), between November 2014 and January 2015 (after the rainy season) in 139 villages. Additionally, the drivers of this spread were identified. For this purpose, we used a beta-binomial (BB) logistic regression model. An Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) approach was used to fit the spatial model. Lower cumulative rainfall, and higher accessibility were both associated with a higher RVFV seroprevalence. The spatial patterns of fitted RVFV seroprevalence pointed densely populated areas of western Senegal as being at higher risk of RVFV infection in small ruminants than rural or southeastern areas. Thus, because slaughtering infected animals and processing their fresh meat is an important RVFV transmission route for humans, more human populations might have been exposed to RVFV during the 2013–2014 outbreak than in previous outbreaks in Senegal.

An outbreak of Rift Valley fever (RVF)–a zoonotic mosquito-borne viral infection widespread in Africa, was reported in 2013–14 in Senegal. After its end in late 2014, its spatial distribution and drivers were assessed using a national serological survey in small ruminants, thus highlighting the high exposition of humans to RVF virus in urban areas.

Paving the way for human vaccination against Rift Valley fever virus: A systematic literature review of RVFV epidemiology from 1999 to 2021

BACKGROUND

Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) is a lethal threat to humans and livestock in many parts of Africa, the Arabian Peninsula, and the Indian Ocean. This systematic review's objective was to consolidate understanding of RVFV epidemiology during 1999-2021 and highlight knowledge gaps relevant to plans for human vaccine trials.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

The review is registered with PROSPERO (CRD42020221622). Reports of RVFV infection or exposure among humans, animals, and/or vectors in Africa, the Arabian Peninsula, and the Indian Ocean during the period January 1999 to June 2021 were eligible for inclusion. Online databases were searched for publications, and supplemental materials were recovered from official reports and research colleagues. Exposures were classified into five groups: 1) acute human RVF cases, 2) acute animal cases, 3) human RVFV sero-surveys, 4) animal sero-surveys, and 5) arthropod infections. Human risk factors, circulating RVFV lineages, and surveillance methods were also tabulated. In meta-analysis of risks, summary odds ratios were computed using random-effects modeling. 1104 unique human or animal RVFV transmission events were reported in 39 countries during 1999-2021. Outbreaks among humans or animals occurred at rates of 5.8/year and 12.4/year, respectively, with Mauritania, Madagascar, Kenya, South Africa, and Sudan having the most human outbreak years. Men had greater odds of RVFV infection than women, and animal contact, butchering, milking, and handling aborted material were significantly associated with greater odds of exposure. Animal infection risk was linked to location, proximity to water, and exposure to other herds or wildlife. RVFV was detected in a variety of mosquito vectors during interepidemic periods, confirming ongoing transmission.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

With broad variability in surveillance, case finding, survey design, and RVFV case confirmation, combined with uncertainty about populations-at-risk, there were inconsistent results from location to location. However, it was evident that RVFV transmission is expanding its range and frequency. Gaps assessment indicated the need to harmonize human and animal surveillance and improve diagnostics and genotyping. Given the frequency of RVFV outbreaks, human vaccination has strong potential to mitigate the impact of this now widely endemic disease.

Risk based serological survey of Rift Valley fever in Tunisia (2017-2018)

Rift Valley fever (RVF) has been reported in the sub-Saharan region of Africa, Egypt and Arabian Peninsula - Yemen and Saudi Arabia, over the past 20 years and is a threat to both the animal and human populations in Tunisia. Tunisia is considered as a high-risk country for the introduction of RVF due to the informal movements of diseased animals already reported in the neighboring countries. The objective of this study was to assess the status of RVF in small ruminants and camels in Tunisia. A risk-based serological survey was conducted to evaluate the presence of RVF based on spatial qualitative risk analysis (SQRA). Samples were collected from small ruminants (sheep and goats) (n = 1,114), and camels (n = 173) samples, belonging to 18 breeders in 14 governorates between November 2017 and January 2018. Samples were tested using an RVF specific multispecies competitive ELISA. Out of the 1,287 samples tested for the presence of RVF IgG antibodies by ELISA, only one positive sample 0.07% (1/1 287) was detected but not confirmed with the virus neutralization test (VNT) used for confirmation. So far, no RVF outbreaks have been reported in Tunisia and our study confirmed the absence of RVF in livestock up to January 2018. Further investigations are needed to confirm the RVF-free status of Tunisia today.

Zoonotic diseases and the COVID-19 pandemic: Economic impacts on Somaliland's livestock exports to Saudi Arabia

The livestock sector plays an important socioeconomic role in the Somaliland economy, particularly through revenues from exports. The partial ban on livestock imports from Somalia imposed by Saudi Arabia due to animal health concerns has resulted in significant negative economic impacts for the government and the value chain actors involved. In previous years, the ban was lifted during the Hajj season to meet the increased demand for sheep and goats. However, given the current COVID-19 pandemic, the Saudi government decided to suspend Umrah visits in 2020 and only allowed a very restricted number of persons to attend the Hajj pilgrimage, thus obviating the need for livestock imports. This study quantified the economic losses associated the current partial livestock ban (started in November 2016) on Somali imports and the added impacts associated with COVID. We estimate that the cumulative losses for the Somaliland livestock sector and the government are US$ 770 million over a five-year period. The additional losses imposed by the COVID pandemic, which restricted participation during the Hajj season, were estimated at US$ 42 million. Livestock producers, who are mainly pastoralists, are the most affected stakeholder group, incurring around 54% of the total losses. Our study highlights the multifaceted, and often overlooked, socio-economic and socio-cultural impacts faced by the livestock sector and general economy in the wake of public health restrictions.

External quality assessment of Rift Valley fever diagnosis in countries at risk of the disease: African, Indian Ocean and Middle-East regions

Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV), an arbovirus belonging to the Phlebovirus genus of the Phenuiviridae family, causes the zoonotic and mosquito-borne RVF. The virus, which primarily affects livestock (ruminants and camels) and humans, is at the origin of recent major outbreaks across the African continent (Mauritania, Libya, Sudan), and in the South-Western Indian Ocean (SWIO) islands (Mayotte). In order to be better prepared for upcoming outbreaks, to predict its introduction in RVFV unscathed countries, and to run efficient surveillance programmes, the priority is harmonising and improving the diagnostic capacity of endemic countries and/or countries considered to be at risk of RVF. A serological inter-laboratory proficiency test (PT) was implemented to assess the capacity of veterinary laboratories to detect antibodies against RVFV. A total of 18 laboratories in 13 countries in the Middle East, North Africa, South Africa, and the Indian Ocean participated in the initiative. Two commercial kits and two in-house serological assays for the detection of RVFV specific IgG antibodies were tested. Sixteen of the 18 participating laboratories (88.9%) used commercial kits, the analytical performance of test sensitivity and specificity based on the seroneutralisation test considered as the reference was 100%. The results obtained by the laboratories which used the in-house assay were correct in only one of the two criteria (either sensitivity or specificity). In conclusion, most of the laboratories performed well in detecting RVFV specific IgG antibodies and can therefore be considered to be prepared. Three laboratories in three countries need to improve their detection capacities. Our study demonstrates the importance of conducting regular proficiency tests to evaluate the level of preparedness of countries and of building a network of competent laboratories in terms of laboratory diagnosis to better face future emerging diseases in emergency conditions.

Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever virus antibody prevalence in Mauritanian livestock (cattle, goats, sheep and camels) is stratified by the animal's age

Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever virus (CCHFV) is one of the most widespread zoonotic arthropod-borne viruses in many parts of Africa, Europe and Asia. It belongs to the family of Nairoviridae in the genus of Orthonairovirus. The main reservoir and vector are ticks of the genus Hyalomma. Livestock animals (such as cattle, small ruminants and camels) develop a viremias lasting up to two weeks with absence of clinical symptoms, followed by seroconversion. This study was carried out to assess risk factors that affect seroprevalence rates in different species. In total, 928 livestock animal samples (cattle = 201; sheep = 247; goats = 233; camels = 247) from 11 out of 13 regions in Mauritania were assayed for CCHFV-specific immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibodies using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISA) (including a novel indirect camel-IgG-specific CCHFV ELISA). Inconclusive results were resolved by an immunofluorescence assay (IFA). A generalized linear mixed-effects model (GLMM) was used to draw conclusions about the impact of certain factors (age, species, sex and region) which might have influenced the CCHFV antibody status of surveyed animals. In goats and sheep, about 15% of the animals were seropositive, whereas in cattle (69%) and camels (81%), the prevalence rate was significantly higher. On average, cattle and camels were up to twice to four times older than small ruminants. Interestingly, the seroprevalence in all species was directly linked to the age of the animals, i.e. older animals had significantly higher seroprevalence rates than younger animals. The highest CCHFV seroprevalence in Mauritania was found in camels and cattle, followed by small ruminants. The large proportion of positive animals in cattle and camels might be explained by the high ages of the animals. Future CCHFV prevalence studies should at least consider the age of surveyed animals in order to avoid misinterpretations.

Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever virus (CCHFV) is a silent threat that repeatedly causes severe hemorrhagic disease in humans who have been in close contact with livestock of endemic countries. The detection of CCHFV IgG antibodies in livestock can be a first indication whether the virus circulates in a given region and is thus a valuable diagnostic tool for determining the endemic status. Interestingly, earlier data from Mauritania showed a noticeable difference in IgG prevalence between sheep (18%) and cattle (67%). In contrast to sheep and cattle, current monitoring data on CCHFV IgG antibody presence in camels and goats in Mauritania is very limited. This study was conducted to provide a comprehensive up-to-date overview of CCHFV seroprevalences in the four most important Mauritanian livestock species (cattle, sheep, goats and camels). It attempts to highlight the role of potential risk factors responsible for deviating prevalences. In addition, we developed a camel-specific IgG ELISA, which can be used in future CCHFV seroprevalence studies. Furthermore, findings of this study contribute to a better understanding of the current epidemiological CCHFV situation in sub-Saharan Africa and which role different livestock species play regarding the viral circulation in endemic regions.

Sero-surveillance of emerging viral diseases in camels and cattle in Nouakchott, Mauritania: an abattoir study

This study reports the monitoring of several emerging viral pathogens in Mauritania, which was carried out by the analysis of bovine and camel samples taken at the slaughterhouse of Nouakchott. Blood and serum were collected by random sampling from 159 camels and 118 cattle in March 2013 at the large animals abattoir in Nouakchott. Serological tests for Rift Valley Fever (RVF), Peste des Petits Ruminants (PPR), West Nile disease (WND), epizootic haemorrhagic disease (EHD) and African horse sickness (AHS) were carried out using commercial ELISA kits. The samples, which resulted positives for PPR, WND and AHS, were tested with the confirmatory virus neutralization test (VNT). According to ELISA results, serological prevalence of RVF was 45% (95% CI 52.3-37.7) in camels and 16% (95% CI 22.6-9.4) in cattle. The difference between the observed prevalences in camels and in cattle was significant (p value ≤ 0.01). PPR was absent in camels and had 12% prevalence (95% CI, 17.86-6.14) in cattle. Furthermore, camels showed 92% (95% CI, 96.1-87.9) prevalence of WNV, 73% (95% CI, 82.3-63.64) of EHD and 3% (95% CI, 5.6-0.4) of AHS. This data are of relevance since provided useful feedbacks on the circulation of the pathogens in field. Moreover, this survey provided new information on the susceptibility of camels to several emerging pathogens and on the possible use of this species as sentinel animal.

Combining viral genetic and animal mobility network data to unravel peste des petits ruminants transmission dynamics in West Africa

Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) is a deadly viral disease that mainly affects small domestic ruminants. This disease threaten global food security and rural economy but its control is complicated notably because of extensive, poorly monitored animal movements in infected regions. Here we combined the largest PPR virus genetic and animal mobility network data ever collected in a single region to improve our understanding of PPR endemic transmission dynamics in West African countries. Phylogenetic analyses identified the presence of multiple PPRV genetic clades that may be considered as part of different transmission networks evolving in parallel in West Africa. A strong correlation was found between virus genetic distance and network-related distances. Viruses sampled within the same mobility communities are significantly more likely to belong to the same genetic clade. These results provide evidence for the importance of animal mobility in PPR transmission in the region. Some nodes of the network were associated with PPRV sequences belonging to different clades, representing potential "hotspots" for PPR circulation. Our results suggest that combining genetic and mobility network data could help identifying sites that are key for virus entrance and spread in specific areas. Such information could enhance our capacity to develop locally adapted control and surveillance strategies, using among other risk factors, information on animal mobility.

Vehicular Livestock Mobility in West Africa: Seasonal Traffic Flows of Cattle, Sheep, and Goats across Bamako

Mali is a major livestock producing country in West Africa. However, in recent years, the sector has faced multiple challenges like farmer-herder conflicts, overuse of grazing and water resources, and the effects of climate change. Meanwhile, traditional livestock systems are becoming less important given the increased availability of vehicular transport for regional and international animal trade as well as new opportunities for more specialised urban and peri-urban production systems. To assess the role of Mali’s capital city Bamako for livestock consumption and trade, this study examined the scale of livestock movement in the city, comprising influxes, outfluxes, and transits. To this end, flows of cattle, small ruminants, and livestock feed were recorded through road surveys covering three different seasons. The results showed the role of Bamako as a major trade hub in the distribution of ruminants. While traffic of cattle and sheep was regional, movement of goats was smaller and more localised. Religious festivals were an important driver of livestock traffic, both in terms of the numbers of livestock and the distance covered. This study highlights the role of cities for livestock mobility and contributes to a better understanding of challenges related to urban livestock production and trade and its requirements for better livestock management.

It's risky to wander in September: Modelling the epidemic potential of Rift Valley fever in a Sahelian setting

Estimating the epidemic potential of vector-borne diseases, along with the relative contribution of underlying mechanisms, is crucial for animal and human health worldwide. In West African Sahel, several outbreaks of Rift Valley fever (RVF) have occurred over the last decades, but uncertainty remains about the conditions necessary to trigger these outbreaks. We use the basic reproduction number (R₀) as a measure of RVF epidemic potential in northern Senegal, and map its value in two distinct ecosystems, namely the Ferlo and the Senegal River delta and valley. We consider three consecutive rainy seasons (July-November 2014, 2015 and 2016) and account for several vector and animal species. We parametrize our model with estimates of Aedes vexans arabiensis, Culex poicilipes, Culex tritaeniorhynchus, cattle, sheep and goat abundances. The impact of RVF virus introduction is assessed every week over northern Senegal. We highlight September as the period of highest epidemic potential in northern Senegal, resulting from distinct dynamics in the two study areas. Spatially, in the seasonal environment of the Ferlo, we observe that high-risk locations vary between years. We show that decreased vector densities do not greatly reduce R₀ and that cattle immunity has a greater impact on reducing transmission than small ruminant immunity. The host preferences of vectors and the temperature-dependent time interval between their blood meals are crucial parameters needing further biological investigations.

Nairobi Sheep Disease Virus: A Historical and Epidemiological Perspective

Nairobi Sheep Disease virus (NSDv) is a zoonotic and tick-borne disease that can cause over 90% mortality in small ruminants. NSDv has historically circulated in East Africa and has recently emerged in the Asian continent. Despite efforts to control the disease, some regions, mostly in warmer climates, persistently report disease outbreaks. Consequently, it is necessary to understand how environmental tolerances and factors that influence transmission may shed light on its possible emergence in other regions. In this study, we quantified the available literature of NSDv from which occurrence data was extracted. In total, 308 locations from Uganda, Kenya, Tanzania, Somalia, India, Sri Lanka and China were coupled with landscape conditions to reconstruct the ecological conditions for NSDv circulation and identify areas of potential disease transmission risk. Our results identified areas suitable for NSDv in Ethiopia, Malawi, Zimbabwe, Southeastern China, Taiwan, and Vietnam. Unsuitable areas included Democratic Republic of Congo, Zambia, and Southern Somalia. In summary, soil moisture, livestock density, and precipitation predispose certain areas to NSDv circulation. It is critical to investigate the epidemiology of NSDv in order to promote better allocation of resources to control its spread in regions that are more at risk. This will help reduce disease impact worldwide as climate change will favor emergence of such vector-borne diseases in areas with dense small ruminant populations.

The role of cross-border transhumance in influencing resident herders' cattle husbandry practices and use of genetic resources

For centuries, the humid West African coastal country of Benin attracts cattle herders from neighboring Sahelian countries such as Niger, Burkina Faso and Nigeria. Each year, several thousands of cattle are trekked over hundreds of kilometers to Benin following established and non-established transhumance corridors. This cross-border mobility has been shown to play an important role in ensuring the productivity of the transhumant herds through adequate late dry season access to pastoral resources. Yet, its effects on the traditional agro-pastoral production systems that are encountered along the routes in Benin have never been explicitly investigated. Therefore, we collected socio-economic household data, herd characteristics and management data from 104 resident herders and 38 transhumant herders in 2 vegetation zones of Benin. To determine whether or not the proximity to transhumance corridors affects sedentary production systems, characteristics of cattle herds and farmers' management practices were compared between villages close to (within a 25 km buffer) and far from (outside a 25 km buffer) transhumance corridors within and between vegetation zones using non-parametric statistical tests. Existing relationships between resident and transhumant herders were also identified and characterized. Subsequently, herd characteristics and management practices were compared between resident herders having relationships with transhumant herders and those without. Herd sizes of resident herders living close to transhumance corridors were larger (P < 0.01) than those of their counterparts living far away. Also, proximity to transhumance corridors had positive effects on herd management practices. The relationships between resident and transhumant herders were governed by a variety of interests including encampment/manuring contracts, exploitation of grazing lands and watering points, trading and bartering of cattle. This exchange of cattle is an important driver of change in the breed composition of local herds and represents an opportunity for resident herders to enhance their herds' productivity through crossbreeding. However, the mere replacement or indiscriminate crossbreeding of local cattle breeds with those kept by transhumant herders threatens the sustainability of the traditional resident herding systems by increasing the risk of genetic erosion and loss of valuable adaptive traits in indigenous animal genetic resources.

Mapping livestock movements in Sahelian Africa

In the dominant livestock systems of Sahelian countries herds have to move across territories. Their mobility is often a source of conflict with farmers in the areas crossed, and helps spread diseases such as Rift Valley Fever. Knowledge of the routes followed by herds is therefore core to guiding the implementation of preventive and control measures for transboundary animal diseases, land use planning and conflict management. However, the lack of quantitative data on livestock movements, together with the high temporal and spatial variability of herd movements, has so far hampered the production of fine resolution maps of animal movements. This paper proposes a general framework for mapping potential paths for livestock movements and identifying areas of high animal passage potential for those movements. The method consists in combining the information contained in livestock mobility networks with landscape connectivity, based on different mobility conductance layers. We illustrate our approach with a livestock mobility network in Senegal and Mauritania in the 2014 dry and wet seasons.

Network analysis of regional livestock trade in West Africa

In West Africa, long and complex livestock value chains connect producers mostly in the Sahel with consumption basins in urban areas and the coast. Regional livestock trade is highly informal and, despite recent efforts to understand animal movement patterns in the region, remains largely unrecorded. Using CILSS' database on intraregional livestock trade, we built yearly and overall weighted networks of animal movements between markets. We mapped and characterized the trade networks, identified market communities, key markets and their roles. Additionally, we compared the observed network properties with null-model generated ensembles. Most movements corresponded to cattle, were made by vehicle, and originated in Burkina Faso. We found that live animals in the central and eastern trade basins flow through well-defined, long distance trade corridors where markets tend to trade in a disassortive way with others in their proximity. Modularity-based communities indicated that both national and cross-border trade groups exist. The network's degree and link distributions followed a log-normal or a power-law distribution, and key markets located primarily in urban centers and near borders serve as hubs that give peripheral markets access to the regional network. The null model ensembles could not reproduce the observed higher-level properties, particularly the propinquity and highly negative assortativity, suggesting that other possibly spatial factors shape the structure of regional live animal trade. Our findings support eliminating cross-border impediments and improving the condition of the regional road network, which limit intraregional trade of and contribute to the high prices of food products in West Africa. Although with limitations, our study sheds light on the abstruse structure of regional livestock trade, and the role of trade communities and markets in West Africa.

A Framework to Tackling the Synchrony between Social and Ecological Phases of the Annual Cyclic Movement of Transhumant Pastoralism

Transhumant pastoralism is mobile livelihood strategy in which families and their herds move seasonally from lowlands, where they settle during the winter, towards the highlands, located in mountainous areas, during the summer. We propose a framework, rooted in a socio-environmental coevolutionary perspective, for the transhumant annual cycle as comprised by the winter-phase, the summer-phase, and movement transitions between them. The aim was to assess the level of synchrony between ecological phases and social phases and the benefit of moving between pasturelands in selected study cases from Patagonia, Argentina. Ecological phases were addressed by the difference between vegetation productivity of winter- and summer-lands, with Fourier transform applied to data series of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). Social phases were estimated by the proportion of annual time spent by pastoralists and their herds in each site and during transitions, respectively, obtained from interviews. The framework was sensitive to capturing differences across study cases. There was an observed tendency towards more synchronisation in the cases with closer distances and asynchrony in the cases with longer distances and longer movement transitions between pasturelands. Results are encouraging as a step towards the development of a monitoring system of both transhumant pastoralism activity and environmental changes.

Malaria epidemiology in Kobeni department, southeastern Mauritania from 2015 to 2017

Background

Plasmodium falciparum malaria is endemic in the southern sahelian zone of Mauritania where intense internal and trans-border human and livestock movement occurs. The risk of importation and spread of drug-resistant parasites need to be regularly assessed in this region. The objective of the study was to assess the recent malaria situation near the Mauritania-Mali border.

Methods

Between February 2015 and December 2017, patients with fever or history of fever during the previous 48 h, presenting at the health centre of Kobeni city, were screened for malaria using a rapid diagnostic test (RDT) and microscopic examination of blood smears. The diagnosis was later confirmed by PCR. Cohen’s kappa statistics was used to estimate the degree of agreement between diagnostic methods. Fisher’s exact test was used to compare proportions. The odds ratio was calculated to measure the association between the use of bed nets and malaria infection.

Results

A total of 2326 febrile patients (mean age, 20.2 years) were screened for malaria. The presence of malaria parasites was detected by RDT and microscopy in 53.0% and 49.3% of febrile patients, respectively, and was confirmed by PCR in 59.7% (45 missing data). Of 1361 PCR-positive samples, 1205 (88.5%) were P. falciparum, 47 (3.5%) P. vivax, and 99 (7.3%) P. falciparum-P. vivax mixed infection. Malaria transmission occurred mostly during and shortly after the rainy season. The annual rainfall was relatively low in 2016 (267 mm) and 2017 (274 mm), compared to 2015 (448 mm), and coincided with a decline in malaria prevalence in 2016–2017. Although 71.8% of febrile patients reported to possess at least one bed net in the household in our questionnaire, its reported use was not protective against malaria infection (odds ratio: 1.1, 95% CI: 0.91–1.32).

Conclusions

Our study confirmed that P. falciparum is the dominant species in the sahelian zone and that malaria transmission is seasonal and associated with rainfall in this zone. The application of the current national policy based on rapid and reliable malaria diagnosis, case management with artemisinin-based combination therapy, intermittent preventive treatment for pregnant women, distribution and use of long-lasting insecticide impregnated bed nets, and the planned introduction of seasonal malaria chemoprevention for all children under 6 years old is expected to sustainably reduce malaria transmission in this zone.

Multi-Hazard Risk Assessment at Community Level Integrating Local and Scientific Knowledge in the Hodh Chargui, Mauritania

Hydro-climatic risk assessments at the regional scale are of little use in the risk treatment decision-making process when they are only based on local or scientific knowledge and when they deal with a single risk at a time. Local and scientific knowledge can be combined in a multi-hazard risk assessment to contribute to sustainable rural development. The aim of this article was to develop a multi-hazard risk assessment at the regional scale which classifies communities according to the risk level, proposes risk treatment actions, and can be replicated in the agropastoral, semi-arid Tropics. The level of multi-hazard risk of 13 communities of Hodh Chargui (Mauritania) exposed to meteorological, hydrological, and agricultural drought, as well as heavy precipitations, was ascertained with an index composed of 48 indicators representing hazard, exposure, vulnerability, and adaptive capacity. Community meetings and visits to exposed items enabled specific indicators to be identified. Scientific knowledge was used to determine the hazard with Climate Hazards Group Infra-Red Precipitation with Station (CHIRPS) and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) datasets, Landsat images, and the method used to rank the communities. The northern communities are at greater risk of agricultural drought and those at the foot of the uplands are more at risk of heavy rains and consequent flash floods. The assessment proposes 12 types of actions to treat the risk in the six communities with severe and high multi-hazard risk.

Genetic Evidence for Transboundary Circulation of Peste Des Petits Ruminants Across West Africa

Peste des Petits Ruminants (PPR) is a viral disease affecting predominantly small ruminants. Due to its transboundary nature, regional coordination of control strategies will be key to the success of the on-going PPR eradication campaign. Here, we aimed at exploring the extent of transboundary movement of PPR in West Africa using phylogenetic analyses based on partial viral gene sequences. We collected samples and obtained partial nucleoprotein gene sequence from PPR-infected small ruminants across countries within West Africa. This new sequence data was combined with publically available data from the region to perform phylogenetic analyses. A total of fifty-five sequences were obtained in a region still poorly sampled. Phylogenetic analyses showed that the majority of virus sequences obtained in this study were placed within genetic clusters regrouping samples from multiple West African countries. Some of these clusters contained samples from countries sharing borders. In other cases, clusters grouped samples from very distant countries. Our results suggest extensive and recurrent transboundary movements of PPR within West Africa, supporting the need for a regional coordinated strategy for PPR surveillance and control in the region. Simple phylogenetic analyses based on readily available data can provide information on PPR transboundary dynamics and, therefore, could contribute to improve control strategies. On-going and future projects dedicated to PPR should include extensive genetic characterization and phylogenetic analyses of circulating viral strains in their effort to support the campaign for global eradication of the disease.

PPR Control in a Sahelian Setting: What Vaccination Strategy for Mauritania?

Peste des Petits Ruminants (PPR) is a viral disease affecting domestic and small wild ruminants. Endemic in large parts of the world, PPR causes severe damages to animal production and household economies. In 2015, FAO and OIE launched a global eradication program (GCSE) based on vaccination campaigns. The success of GCSE shall depend on the implementation of vaccination campaigns, accounting for husbandry practices, mobility and the periodicity of small ruminants' population renewal. In Mauritania, PPR outbreaks occur annually despite ongoing annual vaccination campaigns since 2008. Here, we developed a mathematical model to assess the impact of four vaccination strategies (including the GSCE one), the importance of their timing of implementation and the usefulness of individual animal identification on the reduction of PPR burden. The model was calibrated on data collected through ad-hoc surveys about demographic dynamics, disease impact, and national seroprevalence using Monte Carlo Markov Chain procedure. Numerical simulations were used to estimate the number of averted deaths over the next 12 years. The model results showed that the GSCE strategy prevented the largest number of deaths (9.2 million vs. 6.2 for random strategy) and provided one of the highest economic returns among all strategies (Benefit-Cost Ratio around 16 vs. 7 for random strategy). According to its current cost, identification would be a viable investment that could reduce the number of vaccine doses to distribute by 20–60%. Whilst the implementation of the identification system is crucial for PPR control, its success depends also on a coordinated approach at the regional level.

Analysing livestock network data for infectious disease control: an argument for routine data collection in emerging economies

Livestock movements are an important mechanism of infectious disease transmission. Where these are well recorded, network analysis tools have been used to successfully identify system properties, highlight vulnerabilities to transmission, and inform targeted surveillance and control. Here we highlight the main uses of network properties in understanding livestock disease epidemiology and discuss statistical approaches to infer network characteristics from biased or fragmented datasets. We use a 'hurdle model' approach that predicts (i) the probability of movement and (ii) the number of livestock moved to generate synthetic 'complete' networks of movements between administrative wards, exploiting routinely collected government movement permit data from northern Tanzania. We demonstrate that this model captures a significant amount of the observed variation. Combining the cattle movement network with a spatial between-ward contact layer, we create a multiplex, over which we simulated the spread of 'fast' ( R0 = 3) and 'slow' ( R0 = 1.5) pathogens, and assess the effects of random versus targeted disease control interventions (vaccination and movement ban). The targeted interventions substantially outperform those randomly implemented for both fast and slow pathogens. Our findings provide motivation to encourage routine collection and centralization of movement data to construct representative networks. This article is part of the theme issue 'Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: epidemic forecasting and control'. This theme issue is linked with the earlier issue 'Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: approaches and important themes'.

Application of exponential random graph models to determine nomadic herders' movements in Senegal

Understanding human and animal mobility patterns is a key to predict local and global disease spread. We analysed the nomad herds' movement network in a pilot area of northern Senegal and used exponential random graph models (ERGM) to investigate the reasons behind these movements. We interviewed 132 nomadic herders to collect information about nomad herd structures, movements, and reasons for taking specific routes or gathering in certain areas. We constructed a spatially explicit network with villages as the nodes and nomad herds' movements as the connecting edges. The final ERGM showed that node and edge attributes such as presence of cattle in the herd (odds ratio = 12, CI: 5.3, 27.3), morbidity (odds ratio = 3.6, CI: 2.3, 5.7), and lack of water (odds ratio = 2, CI: 1.3, 3.1) were important predictors of nomad herds' movements. This study not only provides valuable information for monitoring important livestock diseases such as Rift Valley Fever in Senegal, but also helps implement outreach, education, and intervention programs for other emerging and endemic diseases affecting nomadic herds.

Leveraging Available Resources and Stakeholder Involvement for Improved Productivity of African Livestock in the Era of Genomic Breeding

The African continent is home to diverse populations of livestock breeds adapted to harsh environmental conditions with more than 70% under traditional systems of management. Animal productivity is less than optimal in most cases and is faced with numerous challenges including limited access to adequate nutrition and disease management, poor institutional capacities and lack of adequate government policies and funding to develop the livestock sector. Africa is home to about 1.3 billion people and with increasing demand for animal proteins by an ever growing human population, the current state of livestock productivity creates a significant yield gap for animal products. Although a greater section of the population, especially those living in rural areas depend largely on livestock for their livelihoods; the potential of the sector remains underutilized and therefore unable to contribute significantly to economic development and social wellbeing of the people. With current advances in livestock management practices, breeding technologies and health management, and with inclusion of all stakeholders, African livestock populations can be sustainably developed to close the animal protein gap that exists in the continent. In particular, advances in gene technologies, and application of genomic breeding in many Western countries has resulted in tremendous gains in traits like milk production with the potential that, implementation of genomic selection and other improved practices (nutrition, healthcare, etc.) can lead to rapid improvement in traits of economic importance in African livestock populations. The African livestock populations in the context of this review are limited to cattle, goat, pig, poultry, and sheep, which are mainly exploited for meat, milk, and eggs. This review examines the current state of livestock productivity in Africa, the main challenges faced by the sector, the role of various stakeholders and discusses in-depth strategies that can enable the application of genomic technologies for rapid improvement of livestock traits of economic importance.

Characterizing Livestock Markets, Primary Diseases, and Key Management Practices Along the Livestock Supply Chain in Cameroon

Live animal markets are common hotspots for the dispersal of multiple infectious diseases in various production systems globally. In Cameroon livestock trade occurs predominantly via a system of livestock markets. Improving the understanding of the risks associated with livestock trade systems and markets is, therefore, key to design targeted and evidence-based interventions. In the current study, official transaction records for a 12-month period were collected from 62 livestock markets across Central and Southern Cameroon, in combination with a questionnaire-based survey with the livestock markets stakeholders. The available information collected at these markets was used to characterize their structural and functional organization. Based on trade volume, cattle price and the intensity of stakeholder attendance, four main classes of livestock markets were identified. Despite an evident hierarchical structure of the system, a relatively limited pool of infectious diseases was consistently reported as predominant across market classes, highlighting homogeneous disease risks along the livestock supply chain. Conversely, the variable livestock management practices reported (e.g., traded species, husbandry practices, and transhumance habits) highlighted diverse potential risks for disease dissemination among market classes. Making use of readily available commercial information at livestock markets, this study describes a rapid approach for market characterization and classification. Simultaneously, this study identifies primary diseases and management practices at risk and provides the opportunity to inform evidence-based and strategic communication, surveillance and control approaches aiming at mitigating these risks for diseases dissemination through the livestock supply chain in Cameroon.

Predictive gravity models of livestock mobility in Mauritania: The effects of supply, demand and cultural factors

Animal movements are typically driven by areas of supply and demand for animal products and by the seasonality of production and demand. As animals can potentially spread infectious diseases, disease prevention can benefit from a better understanding of the factors influencing movements patterns in space and time. In Mauritania, an important cultural event, called the Tabaski (Aïd el Kebir) strongly affects timing and structure of movements, and due to the arid and semi-arid climatic conditions, the season can also influence movement patterns. In order to better characterize the animal movements patterns, a survey was carried out in 2014, and those data were analysed here using social network analysis (SNA) metrics and used to train predictive gravity models. More specifically, we aimed to contrast the movements structure by ruminant species, season (Tabaski vs. Non-Tabaski) and mode of transport (truck vs. foot). The networks differed according to the species, and to the season, with a changed proportion of truck vs. foot movements. The gravity models were able to predict the probability of a movement link between two locations with moderate to good accuracy (AUC ranging from 0.76 to 0.97), according to species, seasons, and mode of transport, but we failed to predict the traded volume of those trade links. The significant predictor variables of a movement link were the human and sheep population at the source and origin, and the distance separating the locations. Though some improvements would be needed to predict traded volumes and better account for the barriers to mobility, the results provide useful predictions to inform epidemiological models in space and time, and, upon external validation, could be useful to predict movements at a larger regional scale.