Inpatient mortality rates during an era of increased access to HIV testing and ART: A prospective observational study in Lilongwe, Malawi

Factors associated with hospitalization and mortality in adult and pediatric extrapulmonary tuberculosis at a tertiary care hospital in Central India

BACKGROUND

Comorbidities complicate the management of tuberculosis (TB) and have become an essential part of the end TB strategy to eradicate TB. However, pulmonary TB has received the most attention, and little is known about the impact of comorbidities and other factors on outcomes in patients with extrapulmonary tuberculosis (EPTB).

OBJECTIVES

Our aim was to analyze the factors associated with hospitalization and mortality in EPTB at a hospital in Central India, using non-TB patients with similar clinical presentations as a comparison.

METHODS

Patients with presumptive EPTB were prospectively enrolled and followed up until the end of treatment or for at least 6 months. Detailed demographic and clinical information was collected for all participants, and patients were categorized as TB or non-TB using a composite reference standard. Multivariate logistic regression was used to analyze the impact of various clinical findings and risk factors on hospitalization and mortality.

RESULTS

A total of 276 patients were categorized as TB cases and 175 as non-TB cases. Factors associated with hospitalization in children were younger age and non-adenitis site of disease. In adults, factors associated with mortality were older age, non-adenitis site of disease and HIV infection regardless of TB diagnosis, while diabetes mellitus increased the odds of mortality in EPTB patients.

CONCLUSION

Our results show that comorbidities increase the odds of death in both TB and non-TB patients in low-resource settings. This argues for a shift away from the traditional vertical management of diseases in these areas and supports a continued focus on building robust healthcare systems.

Mortality among extrapulmonary tuberculosis patients in the HIV endemic setting: lessons from a tertiary level hospital in Mbeya, Tanzania

Extrapulmonary tuberculosis (EPTB) has received less attention than pulmonary tuberculosis due to its non-contagious nature. EPTB can affect any organ and is more prevalent in people living with HIV. Low- and middle-income countries are now facing the double burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) and HIV, complicating the management of patients with symptoms that could be compatible with both EPTB and NCDs. Little is known about the risk of death of patients presenting with symptoms compatible with EPTB. We included patients with a clinical suspicion of EPTB from a tertiary level hospital in Mbeya, Tanzania, to assess their risk of dying. A total of 113 (61%) patients were classified as having EPTB, and 72 (39%) as having non-TB, with corresponding mortality rates of 40% and 41%. Associated factors for mortality in the TB groups was hospitalization and male sex. Risk factors for hospitalization was having disease manifestation at any site other than lymph nodes, and comorbidities. Our results imply that NCDs serve as significant comorbidities amplifying the mortality risk in EPTB. To strive towards universal health coverage, focus should be on building robust health systems that can tackle both infectious diseases, such as EPTB, and NCDs.

Brief Report: Changing Characteristics Among In-Hospital HIV Deaths: An 11-Year Retrospective Review of a Regional Hospital in South Africa

BACKGROUND

Elevated HIV-associated mortality persists, despite a notable decline with the expansion of antiretroviral therapy (ART). In South Africa, the relative majority of deaths occur in health facilities, providing an opportunity to track decedent characteristics.

SETTING

We analyzed data from 14,870 adult patients who died between 2008 and 2018 at Klerksdorp/Tshepong Hospital Complex in South Africa.

METHODS

Recorded data included demographics, causes of death, HIV status, ART, and tuberculosis (TB) history. We present summary statistics and results from linear, log-binomial, and multinomial regressions to quantify changes over time.

RESULTS

Over the study period, the median age of decedents with HIV in the hospital increased from 39.3 to 43.4 years, and there was a switch to male predominance (46%-54%). Those who died at a younger age (<40 years) remained more likely to be HIV-positive than the older age group, despite the overall proportion of HIV-positivity decreasing over time. The proportion of decedents with HIV ever started on ART increased from 21% to 67%. The proportion of HIV patients dying from TB and AIDS-defining illnesses decreased from 31% to 22%.

CONCLUSIONS

We noted a shift in deaths over time to more men and older individuals, whereas the burden of HIV was heaviest on the younger age groups. Advanced HIV disease remained an important cause of mortality. We also observed an increase in less-traditional opportunistic illnesses among those with HIV, including malignancy, cardiovascular disease, and kidney disease. The high proportion of patients on ART who died prematurely requires further research and interventions.

Use of hospital services by patients with chronic conditions in sub-Saharan Africa: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Objective

To estimate the prevalence of individual chronic conditions and multimorbidity among adults admitted to hospital in countries in sub-Saharan Africa.

Methods

We systematically searched MEDLINE®, Embase®, Global Index Medicus, Global Health and SciELO for publications reporting on patient cohorts recruited between 1 January 2010 and 12 May 2023. We included articles reporting prevalence of pre-specified chronic diseases within unselected acute care services (emergency departments or medical inpatient settings). No language restrictions were applied. We generated prevalence estimates using random-effects meta-analysis alongside 95% confidence intervals, 95% prediction intervals and I2 statistics for heterogeneity. To explore associations with age, sex, country-level income status, geographical region and risk of bias, we conducted pre-specified meta-regression, sub-group and sensitivity analyses.

Findings

Of 6976 identified studies, 61 met the inclusion criteria, comprising data from 20 countries and 376 676 people. None directly reported multimorbidity, but instead reported prevalence for individual conditions. Among medical admissions, the highest prevalence was human immunodeficiency virus infection (36.4%; 95% CI: 31.3-41.8); hypertension (24.4%; 95% CI: 16.7-34.2); diabetes (11.9%; 95% CI: 9.9-14.3); heart failure (8.2%; 95% CI: 5.6-11.9); chronic kidney disease (7.7%; 95% CI: 3.9-14.7); and stroke (6.8%; 95% CI: 4.7-9.6).

Conclusion

Among patients seeking hospital care in sub-Saharan Africa, multimorbidity remains poorly described despite high burdens of individual chronic diseases. Prospective public health studies of multimorbidity burden are needed to generate integrated and context-specific health system interventions that act to maximize patient survival and well-being.

Interventions to reduce deaths in people living with HIV admitted to hospital in low- and middle-income countries: A systematic review

People living with HIV (PLHIV) admitted to hospital have a high risk of death. We systematically appraised evidence for interventions to reduce mortality among hospitalised PLHIV in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Using a broad search strategy with terms for HIV, hospitals, and clinical trials, we searched for reports published between 1 Jan 2003 and 23 August 2021. Studies of interventions among adult HIV positive inpatients in LMICs were included if there was a comparator group and death was an outcome. We excluded studies restricted only to inpatients with a specific diagnosis (e.g. cryptococcal meningitis). Of 19,970 unique studies identified in search, ten were eligible for inclusion with 7,531 participants in total: nine randomised trials, and one before-after study. Three trials investigated systematic screening for tuberculosis; two showed survival benefit for urine TB screening vs. no urine screening, and one which compared Xpert MTB/RIF versus smear microscopy showed no difference in survival. One before-after study implemented 2007 WHO guidelines to improve management of smear negative tuberculosis in severely ill PLHIV, and showed survival benefit but with high risk of bias. Two trials evaluated complex interventions aimed at overcoming barriers to ART initiation in newly diagnosed PLHIV, one of which showed survival benefit and the other no difference. Two small trials evaluated early inpatient ART start, with no difference in survival. Two trials investigated protocol-driven fluid resuscitation for emergency-room attendees meeting case-definitions for sepsis, and showed increased mortality with use of a protocol for fluid administration. In conclusion, ten studies published since 2003 investigated interventions that aimed to reduce mortality in hospitalised adults with HIV, and weren't restricted to people with a defined disease diagnosis. Inpatient trials of diagnostics, therapeutics or a package of interventions to reduce mortality should be a research priority. Trial registration: PROSPERO Number: https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/display_record.php?ID=CRD42019150341.

Antiretroviral therapy initiation and outcomes of hospitalized HIV-infected patients in Uganda—An evaluation of the HIV test and treat strategy

Background

Uganda adopted the HIV Test and Treat in 2016. There is paucity of data about its implementation among hospitalized patients. We aimed to determine the proportion of patients initiating anti-retroviral therapy (ART) during hospitalization, barriers and mortality outcome.

Methods

In this mixed methods cohort study, we enrolled hospitalized patients with a recent HIV diagnosis from three public hospitals in Uganda. We collected data on clinical characteristics, ART initiation and reasons for failure to initiate ART, as well as 30 day outcomes. Healthcare workers in-depth interviews were also conducted and data analyzed by sub-themes.

Results

We enrolled 234 patients; females 140/234 (59.8%), median age 34.5 years (IQR 29–42), 195/234 (83.7%) had WHO HIV stage 3 or 4, and 74/116 (63.8%) had CD4 ≤ 200 cell/μL. The proportion who initiated ART during hospitalization was 123/234 (52.6%) (95% CI 46.0–59.1), of these 35/123 (28.5%) initiated ART on the same day of hospitalization, while 99/123 (80.5%) within a week of hospitalization. By 30 days 34/234 (14.5%) (95% CI 10.3–19.7) died. Patients residing ≥ 35 kilometers from the hospital were more likely not to initiate ART during hospitalization, [aRR = 1.39, (95% CI 1.22–1.59). Inadequate patient preparation for ART initiation and advanced HIV disease were highlighted as barriers of ART initiation during hospitalization.

Conclusion

In this high HIV prevalence setting, only half of newly diagnosed HIV patients are initiated on ART during hospitalization. Inadequate pre-ART patient preparation and advanced HIV are barriers to rapid ART initiation among hospitalized patients in public hospitals.

Implementation of tuberculosis and cryptococcal meningitis rapid diagnostic tests amongst patients with advanced HIV at Kamuzu Central Hospital, Malawi, 2016-2017

BACKGROUND

Cryptococcal meningitis (CM) and tuberculosis (TB) remain leading causes of hospitalization and death amongst people living with HIV, particularly those with advanced HIV disease. In hospitalized patients, prompt diagnosis of these diseases may improve patient outcomes. The advanced HIV rapid diagnostic tests such as determine TB urine lipoarabinomannan lateral flow assay (urine LAM), urine X-pert MTB/RIF assay (urine X-pert), and serum/blood cryptococcal antigen test (serum CrAg) are recommended but frequently not available in many resource-limited settings. We describe our experience providing these tests in a routine hospital setting.

METHOD

From 1 August 2016 to 31 January 2017, a prospective cohort study to diagnose TB and Cryptococcal meningitis using point of care tests was conducted in the medical wards at Kamuzu Central Hospital, in Lilongwe, Malawi. The tests offered were PIMA CD4 cell count, serum CrAg, urine LAM, and urine X-pert. The testing was integrated into an existing HIV/TB treatment room on the wards and performed close to admission time. Patients were followed until discharge or death in the ward.

RESULTS

We included 438 HIV-positive patients; 76% had a previously known HIV diagnosis (87% already on ART). We measured CD4 count in 365/438 (83%), serum CrAg in 301/438 (69%), urine LAM in 363/438 (83%), and urine X-pert in 292/438 (67%). The median CD4 count was 144 cells/ml (IQR 46-307). Serum CrAg positivity rate was 23 /301 (8%) and CM was confirmed by CSF Crag in 13/23 (56%). The majority of CM patients 9/13 (69%) started antifungal therapy within two days of diagnosis. Urine LAM and urine X-pert positivity rates were 81/363(22%) and (14/292 (5%) respectively. The positivity rate of urine LAM was higher in patients with low CD4 cell counts (< 100 cells/ml) and low BMI (< 18.5). Most patients with positive urine LAM started TB treatment on the same day. Despite the early diagnosis and treatment of TB and CM, the inpatient mortality was high; 30% and 25% respectively.

CONCLUSION

Although advanced HIV rapid diagnostic tests are recommended, one key challenge in implementation is the limited trained personnel administering the tests. Despite the effective use of the point of care tests in the clinical care of hospitalized TB and CM patients, mortality among these patients remained unacceptably high. Henceforth we need to train other cadres apart from nurses, clinicians, and laboratory technicians to conduct the tests. There is an urgent need to identify and modify other risks of death from TB and CM.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Malawi National Health Science Research committee: Protocol # 1144. Registered 2 July 2014 and University Of North Carolina IRB #: UNCPM 21412, approved 13th October 2014.

Outcomes of people living with HIV after hospital discharge: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

The identification and appropriate management of people with advanced HIV disease is a key component in the HIV response. People with HIV who are hospitalised are at a higher risk of death, a risk that might persist after discharge. The aims of this study were to estimate the frequency of negative post-discharge outcomes, and to determine risk factors for such outcomes in people with HIV.

Methods

Using a broad search strategy combining terms for hospital discharge and HIV infection, we searched MEDLINE via PubMed and Embase from Jan 1, 2003 to Nov 30, 2021 to identify studies reporting outcomes among people with HIV following discharge from hospital. We estimated pooled proportions of readmissions and deaths after hospital discharge using random-effects models. We also did subgroup analyses by setting, region, duration of follow-up, and advanced HIV status at admission, and sensitivity analyses to assess heterogeneity.

Findings

We obtained data from 29 cohorts, which reported outcomes of people living with HIV after hospital discharge in 92 781 patients. The pooled proportion of patients readmitted to hospital after discharge was 18·8% (95% CI 15·3–22·3) and 14·1% (10·8–17·3) died post-discharge. In sensitivity analyses, no differences were identified in the proportion of patients who were readmitted or died when comparing studies published before 2016 with those published after 2016. Post-discharge mortality was higher in studies from Africa (23·1% [16·5–29·7]) compared with the USA (7·5% [4·4–10·6]). For studies that reported both post-discharge mortality and readmission, the pooled proportion of patients who had this composite adverse outcome was 31·7% (23·9–39·5). Heterogeneity was moderate, and largely explained by patient status and linkage to care. Reported risk factors for readmission included low CD4 cell count at admission, longer length of stay, discharge against medical advice, and not linking to care following discharge; inpatient treatment with antiretroviral therapy (ART) during hospitalisation was protective of post-discharge mortality.

Interpretation

More than a quarter of patients with HIV had an adverse outcome after hospital discharge with no evidence of improvement in the past 15 years. This systematic review highlights the importance of ensuring post-discharge referral and appropriate management, including ART, to reduce mortality and readmission to hospital among this group of high-risk patients.

Funding

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Translations

For the French and Spanish translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Incidence of HIV-positive admission and inpatient mortality in Malawi (2012-2019)

OBJECTIVE

To investigate trends in population incidence of HIV-positive hospital admission and risk of in-hospital death among adults living with HIV between 2012 and 2019 in Blantyre, Malawi.

DESIGN

Population cohort study using an existing electronic health information system ('SPINE') at Queen Elizabeth Central Hospital and Blantyre census data.

METHODS

We used multiple imputation and negative binomial regression to estimate population age-specific and sex-specific admission rates over time. We used a log-binomial model to investigate trends in risk of in-hospital death.

RESULTS

Of 32 814 adult medical admissions during Q4 2012--Q3 2019, HIV status was recorded for 75.6%. HIV-positive admissions decreased substantially between 2012 and 2019. After imputation for missing data, HIV-positive admissions were highest in Q3 2013 (173 per 100 000 adult Blantyre residents) and lowest in Q3 2019 (53 per 100 000 residents). An estimated 10 818 fewer than expected people with HIV (PWH) [95% confidence interval (CI) 10 068-11 568] were admitted during 2012-2019 compared with the counterfactual situation where admission rates stayed the same throughout this period. Absolute reductions were greatest for women aged 25-34 years (2264 fewer HIV-positive admissions, 95% CI 2002-2526). In-hospital mortality for PWH was 23.5%, with no significant change over time in any age-sex group, and no association with antiretroviral therapy (ART) use at admission.

CONCLUSION

Rates of admission for adult PWH decreased substantially, likely because of large increases in community provision of HIV diagnosis, treatment and care. However, HIV-positive in-hospital deaths remain unacceptably high, despite improvements in ART coverage. A concerted research and implementation agenda is urgently needed to reduce inpatient deaths among PWH.

Lessons learned from the development and implementation of an electronic paediatric emergency and acute care database in Lilongwe, Malawi

As the field of global child health increasingly focuses on inpatient and emergency care, there is broad recognition of the need for comprehensive, accurate data to guide decision-making at both patient and system levels. Limited financial and human resources present barriers to reliable and detailed clinical documentation at hospitals in low-and-middle-income countries (LMICs). Kamuzu Central Hospital (KCH) is a tertiary referral hospital in Malawi where the paediatric ward admits up to 3000 children per month. To improve availability of robust inpatient data, we collaboratively designed an acute care database on behalf of PACHIMAKE, a consortium of Malawi and US-based institutions formed to improve paediatric care at KCH. We assessed the existing health information systems at KCH, reviewed quality care metrics, engaged clinical providers and interviewed local stakeholders who would directly use the database or be involved in its collection. Based on the information gathered, we developed electronic forms collecting data at admission, follow-up and discharge for children admitted to the KCH paediatric wards. The forms record demographic information, basic medical history, clinical condition and pre-referral management; track diagnostic processes, including laboratory studies, imaging modalities and consults; and document the final diagnoses and disposition obtained from clinical files and corroborated through review of existing admission and death registries. Our experience with the creation of this database underscores the importance of fully assessing existing health information systems and involving all stakeholders early in the planning process to ensure meaningful and sustainable implementation.

Profile of presentation of HIV-positive patients to an emergency department in Johannesburg, South Africa

Background

Despite improved availability and better access to antiretroviral therapy (ART), approximately 36% of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-positive South Africans are still not virally suppressed.

Objective

The aim of this study was to describe the patterns of presentation of HIV-positive patients to a major central hospital emergency department (ED).

Methods

In this prospectively designed study, consecutive HIV-positive patients presenting to the Charlotte Maxeke Johannesburg Academic Hospital (CMJAH) adult ED were enrolled between 07 July 2017 and 18 October 2018.

Results

A total of 1224 participants were enrolled. Human immunodeficiency virus was newly diagnosed in 212 (17.3%) patients, 761 (75.2%) were on ART, 245 (32.2%) reported ART non-adherence, 276 (22.5%) had bacterial pneumonia, 244 (19.9%) had tuberculosis (TB), 86 (7.0%) had gastroenteritis, 205 (16.7%) required intensive care unit admission, 381 (31.1%) were admitted for ≥ 7 days and 166 (13.6%) died. With regard to laboratory parameters, CD₄ cell count was < 100 cell/mm³ in 527 (47.6%) patients, the viral load (VL) was > 1000 copies/mL in 619 (59.0%), haemoglobin was < 11 g/dL in 636 (56.3%), creatinine was > 120 µmol/L in 294 (29.3%), lactate was > 2 mmol/L in 470 (42.0%) and albumin was < 35 g/L in 633 (60.8%).

Conclusion

Human immunodeficiency virus-positive patients presenting to the CMJAH ED demonstrated a high prevalence of opportunistic infections, required a prolonged hospital stay and had high mortality rates. There is a need to improve the quality of ART services and accessibility to care.

Two success stories in the management of Guillain-Barré syndrome illustrate the challenges of intensive care unit care in Malawi

The management of critical illness is especially challenging in low-resource environments, and early recognition and supportive care are essential, regardless of the ability to employ advanced or invasive therapy. In this report, we discuss two patients with Guillain-Barré syndrome who were managed successfully in the intensive care unit of a tertiary hospital in Malawi. Both patients recovered and were discharged home. The management and outcomes of these patients provide case-based lessons for improving intensive care unit medicine in low-resource contexts.

HIV-associated morbidity and mortality in a setting of high ART coverage: prospective surveillance results from a district hospital in Botswana

INTRODUCTION

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) has significantly improved survival in Africa in recent years. In Botswana, where adult HIV prevalence is 21.9%, AIDS-related mortality is estimated to have declined by 58% between 2005 and 2013 following the initial wide-spread introduction of ART, and ART coverage has steadily increased reaching 84% in 2016. However, there remains little data about the burden of HIV and its impact on mortality in the hospital setting where most deaths occur. We aimed to describe the burden of HIV and related morbidity and mortality among hospitalized medical patients in a district hospital in southern Botswana in the era of widespread ART coverage.

METHODS

We prospectively reviewed medical admissions to Scottish Livingstone Hospital from December 2015 to November 2017 and recorded HIV status, demographics, clinical characteristics and final diagnoses at discharge, death or transfer. We ascertained outcomes and determined factors associated with mortality. Results were compared with similar surveillance data collected at the same facility in 2011 to 2012.

RESULTS

A total of 2316 admissions occurred involving 1969 patients; 42.4% were of HIV-positive patients, 46.9% of HIV-negative patients and 10.7% of patients with unknown HIV status. Compared to HIV-negative patients, HIV-positive patients had younger age (mean 42 vs. 64 years, p < 0.0001) and higher mortality (22.2% vs. 18.0%, p = 0.03). Tuberculosis was the leading diagnosis among mortality cases in both groups but accounted for a higher proportion of deaths among HIV-positive admissions (44.5%) compared with HIV-negative admissions (19.4%, p < 0.0001). Compared with similar surveillance in 2011 to 2012, HIV prevalence was lower (42.4% vs. 47.6%, p < 0.01), and among HIV-positive admissions: ART coverage was higher (72.2% vs. 56.2%, p < 0.0001), viral load suppression was similar (78.6% vs. 80.3%, p = 0.77), CD4 counts were higher (55.0% vs. 44.6% with CD4 ≥200 cells/mm3 , p < 0.001), mortality was similar (22.2 vs. 22.7%, p = 0.93), tuberculosis diagnoses increased (27.5% vs. 20.1%, p < 0.01) and tuberculosis-associated mortality was higher (35.9% vs. 24.7%, p = 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Despite high ART-coverage in Botswana, HIV-positive patients continue to be disproportionately represented among hospital admissions and deaths. Deaths from tuberculosis may be contributing to lack of reduction in inpatient mortality. Our findings suggest that control of HIV and tuberculosis remain top priorities for reducing inpatient mortality in Botswana.

Care Continuum and Postdischarge Outcomes Among HIV-Infected Adults Admitted to the Hospital in Zambia

Background

We characterized the extent of antiretroviral therapy (ART) experience and postdischarge mortality among hospitalized HIV-infected adults in Zambia.

Methods

At a central hospital with an opt-out HIV testing program, we enrolled HIV-infected adults (18+ years) admitted to internal medicine using a population-based sampling frame. Critically ill patients were excluded. Participants underwent a questionnaire regarding their HIV care history and CD4 count and viral load (VL) testing. We followed participants to 3 months after discharge. We analyzed prior awareness of HIV-positive status, antiretroviral therapy (ART) use, and VL suppression (VS; <1000 copies/mL). Using Cox proportional hazards regression, we assessed risk factors for mortality.

Results

Among 1283 adults, HIV status was available for 1132 (88.2%), and 762 (67.3%) were HIV-positive. In the 239 who enrolled, the median age was 36 years, 59.7% were women, and the median CD4 count was 183 cells/mm³. Active tuberculosis or Cryptococcus coinfection was diagnosed in 82 (34.3%); 93.3% reported prior awareness of HIV status, and 86.2% had ever started ART. In the 64.0% with >6 months on ART, 74.4% had VS. The majority (92.5%) were discharged, and by 3 months, 48 (21.7%) had died. Risk of postdischarge mortality increased with decreasing CD4, and there was a trend toward reduced risk in those treated for active tuberculosis.

Conclusions

Most HIV-related hospitalizations and deaths may now occur among ART-experienced vs -naïve individuals in Zambia. Development and evaluation of inpatient interventions are needed to mitigate the high risk of death in the postdischarge period.

Development of a Malawi Intensive care Mortality risk Evaluation (MIME) model, a prospective cohort study

INTRODUCTION

Intensive care medicine can contribute to population health in low-income countries by reducing premature mortality related to surgery, trauma, obstetrical and other medical emergencies. Quality improvement is guided by risk stratification models, which are developed primarily within high-income settings. Models validated for use in low-income countries are needed.

METHODS

This prospective cohort study consisted of 261 patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) of Kamuzu Central Hospital in Malawi, from September 2016 to March 2018. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality. We performed univariable analyses on putative predictors and included those with a significance of 0.15 in the Malawi Intensive care Mortality risk Evaluation model (MIME). Model discrimination was evaluated using the area under the curve.

RESULTS

Males made up 37.9% of the study sample and the mean age was 34.4 years. A majority (73.9%) were admitted to the ICU after a recent surgical procedure, and 59% came directly from the operating theater. In-hospital mortality was 60.5%. The MIME based on age, sex, admitting service, systolic pressure, altered mental status, and fever during the ICU course had a fairly good discrimination, with an AUC of 0.70 (95% CI 0.63-0.76).

CONCLUSIONS

The MIME has modest ability to predict in-hospital mortality in a Malawian ICU. Multicenter research is needed to validate the MIME and assess its clinical utility.