Ecological niche modeling the potential geographic distribution of four Culicoides species of veterinary significance in Florida, USA

Culicoides-borne Orbivirus epidemiology in a changing climate

Orbiviruses are of significant importance to the health of wildlife and domestic animals worldwide; the major orbiviruses transmitted by multiple biting midge (Culicoides) species include bluetongue virus, epizootic hemorrhagic disease virus, and African horse sickness virus. The viruses, insect vectors, and hosts are anticipated to be impacted by global climate change, altering established Orbivirus epidemiology. Changes in global climate have the potential to alter the vector competence and extrinsic incubation period of certain biting midge species, affect local and long-distance dispersal dynamics, lead to range expansion in the geographic distribution of vector species, and increase transmission period duration (earlier spring onset and later fall transmission). If transmission intensity is associated with weather anomalies such as droughts and wind speeds, there may be changes in the number of outbreaks and periods between outbreaks for some regions. Warmer temperatures and changing climates may impact the viral genome by facilitating reassortment and through the emergence of novel viral mutations. As the climate changes, Orbivirus epidemiology will be inextricably altered as has been seen with recent outbreaks of bluetongue, epizootic hemorrhagic disease, and African horse sickness outside of endemic areas, and requires interdisciplinary teams and approaches to assess and mitigate future outbreak threats.

Host associations of biting midges (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae: Culicoides) at deer farms in Florida, USA

Documenting the host use of vector species is important for understanding the transmission dynamics of vector-borne pathogens. Biting midges (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae: Culicoides) are vectors of epizootic hemorrhagic disease virus (EHDV) and bluetongue virus (BTV) worldwide. However, relative to mosquitoes and many other vector groups, host associations of this group are poorly documented. In this study, we used PCR-based bloodmeal analysis to determine species-level host associations of 3,603 blood-engorged specimens belonging to 18 Culicoides species at 8 deer farms in Florida, USA. We used a binomial mixed model with a Bayesian framework to compare the effect of host composition on the feeding patterns of Culicoides spp. and employed the Morisita-Horn Index to investigate the similarity of host use between farms for Culicoides stellifer and Culicoides insignis. Results show that the estimated probability of Culicoides spp. feeding upon white-tailed deer depends on the availability of cattle or exotic game and demonstrates differences in host-feeding selection among species. Culicoides insignis had high host similarity across farms suggesting that its host-use patterns are somewhat conserved. Culicoides stellifer had lower host similarity across farms suggesting that it is a more opportunistic feeder. White-tailed deer are fed upon by many Culicoides species on deer farms in Florida, and while most Culicoides species feed on white-tailed deer, the ratio of white-tailed deer bloodmeals to other bloodmeals is likely influenced by host availability. Culicoides spp. taking a majority of their bloodmeals from farmed white-tailed deer should be assessed for their vector competence for EHDV and BTV.

Would Climate Change Influence the Potential Distribution and Ecological Niche of Bluetongue Virus and Its Main Vector in Peru?

Bluetongue virus (BTV) is an arbovirus that is transmitted between domestic and wild ruminants by Culicoides spp. Its worldwide distribution depends on competent vectors and suitable environmental ecosystems that are becoming affected by climate change. Therefore, we evaluated whether climate change would influence the potential distribution and ecological niche of BTV and Culicoides insignis in Peru. Here, we analyzed BTV (n = 145) and C. insignis (n = 22) occurrence records under two shared socioeconomic pathway scenarios (SSP126 and SSP585) with five primary general circulation models (GCMs) using the kuenm R package v.1.1.9. Then, we obtained binary presence–absence maps and represented the risk of transmission of BTV and niche overlapping. The niche model approach showed that north and east Peru presented suitability in the current climate scenario and they would have a decreased risk of BTV, whilst its vector would be stable and expand with high agreement for the five GCMs. In addition, its niche overlap showed that the two niches almost overlap at present and would completely overlap with one another in future climate scenarios. These findings might be used to determine the areas of highest priority for entomological and virological investigations and surveillance in order to control and prevent bluetongue infections in Peru.

Detection of Toxoplasma gondii oocysts in soil and risk mapping in an island environment in the Northeast of Brazil

Toxoplasmosis is an emerging and re-emerging infectious disease that can be transmitted through a contaminated environment. Environmental contamination is an emergency health issue, and determining its occurrence is fundamental to a One Health approach. In this study, we addressed the extent of environmental contamination and viability of Toxoplasma gondii oocysts in soil in different environments on Fernando de Noronha Island, Brazil. In addition, we performed species distribution modelling to predict the environmental suitability for coccidia persistence in the studied area. Soil samples were collected in 14 neighbourhoods of the Island and in the four main squares, creating a total of 95 soil samples (five samples per site). The samples were analyzed by the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) technique for the presence of the 18S ribosomal DNA gene of Apicomplexan protozoa, followed by genetic sequencing. We obtained 4.2% (4/95) positive soil samples with 100% similarity for T. gondii sequences. Two out of four positive sites on PCR showed viability of T. gondii oocysts through the mouse bioassay technique. As a result of the application of the species distribution modelling, environmental adequacy for the coccidia was observed throughout the Island. The results confirm the contamination of the soil in this insular environment by T. gondii oocysts and the environmental suitability by modelling application. These findings are an alert for the possibility of infection in animals and humans by contaminated soil, and for contamination of the maritime environment in addition to water resources for consumption by the local population.

Models of spatial analysis for vector-borne diseases studies: A systematic review

Background and Aim: Vector-borne diseases (VBDs) constitute a global problem for humans and animals. Knowledge related to the spatial distribution of various species of vectors and their relationship with the environment where they develop is essential to understand the current risk of VBDs and for planning surveillance and control strategies in the face of future threats. This study aimed to identify models, variables, and factors that may influence the emergence and resurgence of VBDs and how these factors can affect spatial local and global distribution patterns. Materials and Methods: A systematic review was designed based on identification, screening, selection, and inclusion described in the research protocols according to the preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analyses guide. A literature search was performed in PubMed, ScienceDirect, Scopus, and SciELO using the following search strategy: Article type: Original research, Language: English, Publishing period: 2010–2020, Search terms: Spatial analysis, spatial models, VBDs, climate, ecologic, life cycle, climate variability, vector-borne, vector, zoonoses, species distribution model, and niche model used in different combinations with "AND" and "OR." Results: The complexity of the interactions between climate, biotic/abiotic variables, and non-climate factors vary considerably depending on the type of disease and the particular location. VBDs are among the most studied types of illnesses related to climate and environmental aspects due to their high disease burden, extended presence in tropical and subtropical areas, and high susceptibility to climate and environment variations. Conclusion: It is difficult to generalize our knowledge of VBDs from a geospatial point of view, mainly because every case is inherently independent in variable selection, geographic coverage, and temporal extension. It can be inferred from predictions that as global temperatures increase, so will the potential trend toward extreme events. Consequently, it will become a public health priority to determine the role of climate and environmental variations in the incidence of infectious diseases. Our analysis of the information, as conducted in this work, extends the review beyond individual cases to generate a series of relevant observations applicable to different models.

Effect of Constant Temperatures on Culicoides sonorensis Midge Physiology and Vesicular Stomatitis Virus Infection

Simple Summary

Culicoides biting midges are nuisance pests of livestock and well-known vectors of veterinary arboviruses, such as vesicular stomatitis virus (VSV). Female midges ingest viruses when feeding on blood to obtain protein for egg-laying. After ingesting a VSV-infected blood meal, the environmental temperature of the resting location mediates the rates at which blood is digested, eggs are laid, and virus particles are replicated inside the midge. VSV transmission will occur if the timing of virus amplification aligns with the next feeding–egg-laying cycle. We evaluated the impact of constant environmental temperatures on midge physiology (lifespan and reproduction), vector competence for VSV (infection and dissemination), and thermal resting preference. Our results indicate that after ingesting a blood meal, most midges prefer to rest in areas that fall within their preferred physiological range regardless of the temperatures at which they were being maintained. These preferred temperatures maximized their survival, the number of egg-laying cycles, and the likelihood of VSV transmission. Our temperature approach shows that in the Culicoides–VSV system, the preferred resting temperature selected by blood-fed midges is beneficial for both insect and virus transmission.

Abstract

Culicoides midges play an important role in vesicular stomatitis virus (VSV) transmission to US livestock. After VSV-blood feeding, blood digestion followed by oviposition occurs while ingested virus particles replicate and disseminate to salivary glands for transmission during subsequent blood-feeding events. Changes to environmental temperature may alter the feeding–oviposition–refeeding cycles, midge survival, VSV infection, and overall vector capacity. However, the heterothermic midge may respond rapidly to environmental changes by adjusting their thermal behavior to resting in areas closer to their physiological range. Here we investigated the effects of four constant environmental temperatures (20, 25, 30, and 35 °C) on C. sonorensis survival, oviposition, and VSV infection, as well as resting thermal preferences after blood-feeding. We found that most midges preferred to rest in areas at 25–30 °C. These two constant temperatures (25 and 30 °C) allowed an intermediate fitness performance, with a 66% survival probability by day 10 and oviposition cycles occurring every 2–3 days. Additionally, VSV infection rates in bodies and heads with salivary glands were higher than in midges held at 20 °C and 35 °C. Our results provide insight into the implications of temperature on VSV–Culicoides interactions and confirm that the range of temperature preferred by midges can benefit both the vector and the arbovirus.

Predicting the possibility of African horse sickness (AHS) introduction into China using spatial risk analysis and habitat connectivity of Culicoides

African horse sickness (AHS) is a devastating equine infectious disease. On 17 March 2020, it first appeared in Thailand and threatened all the South-East Asia equine industry security. Therefore, it is imperative to carry out risk warnings of the AHS in China. The maximum entropy algorithm was used to model AHS and Culicoides separately by using climate and non-climate variables. The least cost path (LCP) method was used to analyze the habitat connectivity of Culicoides with the reclassified land cover and altitude as cost factors. The models showed the mean area under the curve as 0.918 and 0.964 for AHS and Culicoides. The prediction result map shows that there is a high risk area in the southern part of China while the habitats of the Culicoides are connected to each other. Therefore, the risk of introducing AHS into China is high and control of the border area should be strengthened immediately.

Ecological niche modeling predicting the potential distribution of African horse sickness virus from 2020 to 2060

African horse sickness is a vector-borne, non-contagious and highly infectious disease of equines caused by African horse sickness viruses (AHSv) that mainly affect horses. The occurrence of the disease causes huge economic impacts because of its high fatality rate, trade ban and disease control costs. In the planning of vectors and vector-borne diseases like AHS, the application of Ecological niche models (ENM) used an enormous contribution in precisely delineating the suitable habitats of the vector. We developed an ENM to delineate the global suitability of AHSv based on retrospective outbreak data records from 2005 to 2019. The model was developed in an R software program using the Biomod2 package with an Ensemble modeling technique. Predictive environmental variables like mean diurnal range, mean precipitation of driest month(mm), precipitation seasonality (cv), mean annual maximum temperature (^oc), mean annual minimum temperature (^oc), mean precipitation of warmest quarter(mm), mean precipitation of coldest quarter (mm), mean annual precipitation (mm), solar radiation (kj /day), elevation/altitude (m), wind speed (m/s) were used to develop the model. From these variables, solar radiation, mean maximum temperature, average annual precipitation, altitude and precipitation seasonality contributed 36.83%, 17.1%, 14.34%, 7.61%, and 6.4%, respectively. The model depicted the sub-Sahara African continent as the most suitable area for the virus. Mainly Senegal, Burkina Faso, Niger, Nigeria, Ethiopia, Sudan, Somalia, South Africa, Zimbabwe, Madagascar and Malawi are African countries identified as highly suitable countries for the virus. Besides, OIE-listed disease-free countries like India, Australia, Brazil, Paraguay and Bolivia have been found suitable for the virus. This model can be used as an epidemiological tool in planning control and surveillance of diseases nationally or internationally.

Predicting the Geographic Range of an Invasive Livestock Disease across the Contiguous USA under Current and Future Climate Conditions

Vesicular stomatitis (VS) is the most common vesicular livestock disease in North America. Transmitted by direct contact and by several biting insect species, this disease results in quarantines and animal movement restrictions in horses, cattle and swine. As changes in climate drive shifts in geographic distributions of vectors and the viruses they transmit, there is considerable need to improve understanding of relationships among environmental drivers and patterns of disease occurrence. Multidisciplinary approaches integrating pathology, ecology, climatology, and biogeophysics are increasingly relied upon to disentangle complex relationships governing disease. We used a big data model integration approach combined with machine learning to estimate the potential geographic range of VS across the continental United States (CONUS) under long-term mean climate conditions over the past 30 years. The current extent of VS is confined to the western portion of the US and is related to summer and winter precipitation, winter maximum temperature, elevation, fall vegetation biomass, horse density, and proximity to water. Comparison with a climate-only model illustrates the importance of current processes-based parameters and identifies regions where uncertainty is likely to be greatest if mechanistic processes change. We then forecast shifts in the range of VS using climate change projections selected from CMIP5 climate models that most realistically simulate seasonal temperature and precipitation. Climate change scenarios that altered climatic conditions resulted in greater changes to potential range of VS, generally had non-uniform impacts in core areas of the current potential range of VS and expanded the range north and east. We expect that the heterogeneous impacts of climate change across the CONUS will be exacerbated with additional changes in land use and land cover affecting biodiversity and hydrological cycles that are connected to the ecology of insect vectors involved in VS transmission.

Oviposition of Culicoides insignis (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) under laboratory conditions with notes on the developmental life history traits of its immature stages

BACKGROUND

Culicoides insignis is a confirmed vector of bluetongue virus (BTV) throughout the American tropics and a possible vector of epizootic hemorrhagic disease virus (EHDV) in Florida. Despite its importance, fundamental information on the biology and ecology of this vector species is lacking. In this study, we examined the oviposition of C. insignis under laboratory conditions, monitored the development of immature stages and attempted colonization of this species.

METHODS

Live C. insignis females were collected from the field using CDC-UV-LED traps, allowed to blood-feed on live chicken and given various natural substrates for oviposition in two-choice assays. The eggs deposited were transferred to 0.3% agar slants, and the hatched larvae were provided a diet of Panagrellus redivivus Linnaeus nematodes and the development of all immature stages was monitored.

RESULTS

Culicoides insignis females exhibited an overall oviposition preference for dishes containing mud from their larval habitat as gravid females deposited a significantly higher number of eggs on these dishes (35.3 eggs/female) than on controls (17.7 eggs/female). The ovipositing females also deposited a higher percentage of eggs on substrates with habitat mud and other organically enriched muds (≥ 75.2%) compared to controls (31.0%). The larvae developed successfully to adulthood on the nematode diet, exhibiting high overall larval survival rates (85.0%). Sex ratios of the F1 generation were male biased, approximately 3:1 (male:female). Captive mating could not be induced in the F1 adults.

CONCLUSIONS

Mud from the larval habitat and other organically enriched muds provide strong oviposition cues to C. insignis under laboratory conditions. Further studies will be needed to identify the key biotic/abiotic factors influencing midge oviposition in the field. The agar/nematode method is effective for the rearing of C. insignis larvae. However, further studies will be needed to address the issue of male-biased sex ratios in the progeny and to examine the mating habits/cues of C. insignis in nature, which may provide clues towards inducing captive mating in the F1 adults.

A Mortality-Based Description of EHDV and BTV Prevalence in Farmed White-Tailed Deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in Florida, USA

Hemorrhagic disease (HD) caused by bluetongue virus (BTV) and epizootic hemorrhagic disease virus (EHDV) is the most important viral disease of farmed and wild white-tailed deer (WTD; Odocoileus virginianus) and can cause substantial mortality in susceptible hosts. Captive cervid farming is an emerging industry in Florida, an HD-enzootic region. Morbidity and mortality due to HD are major concerns among deer farmers, but the impact of HD on Florida’s cervid farming industry is unknown. Our primary objective was to determine the prevalence of epizootic hemorrhagic disease virus (EHDV) and bluetongue virus (BTV) among WTD submitted to the University of Florida Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences Cervidae Health Research Initiative (CHeRI) for post-mortem diagnostics. Our secondary objectives were to identify the predominant circulating EHDV serotypes during each sampling year and to determine the age class with the greatest proportion of EHDV- and BTV-positive post-mortem specimens. From 2016 to 2020, spleen samples from 539 farmed WTD with unexplained mortality were tested for the presence of EHDV and BTV by RT-qPCR. Overall, the prevalence of EHDV, BTV, or EHDV/BTV coinfection was 26%, 16%, and 10%, respectively, and 44% of deer (237/539) were diagnosed with HD by RT-qPCR. The predominant circulating EHDV serotype varied by year. Overall, EHDV-2 was the most commonly identified serotype (55% of PCR-positive cases), and EHDV-1 was the least frequently identified serotype (16% of PCR-positive cases). The greatest proportion of EHDV/BTV positives among mortality cases was observed in young WTD aged 3–6 months (50%–82% positive). There was a significant difference in the prevalence of EHDV/BTV by age when comparing specimens from WTD over 1 year old (p = 0.029, n = 527). Among these samples, the number of reported mortalities and the prevalence of EHDV/BTV were highest in yearling animals (56%). These data provide the first estimate of EHDV and BTV prevalence and virus serotypes among farmed WTD in Florida, identify the WTD age groups with the greatest proportions of EHDV- and BTV-positive specimens, and suggest that HD caused by these two viruses may be a major source of mortality challenging the captive cervid farming industry in Florida.

Scoping review of distribution models for selected Amblyomma ticks and rickettsial group pathogens

The rising prevalence of tick-borne diseases in humans in recent decades has called attention to the need for more information on geographic risk for public health planning. Species distribution models (SDMs) are an increasingly utilized method of constructing potential geographic ranges. There are many knowledge gaps in our understanding of risk of exposure to tick-borne pathogens, particularly for those in the rickettsial group. Here, we conducted a systematic scoping review of the SDM literature for rickettsial pathogens and tick vectors in the genus Amblyomma. Of the 174 reviewed articles, only 24 studies used SDMs to estimate the potential extent of vector and/or pathogen ranges. The majority of studies (79%) estimated only tick distributions using vector presence as a proxy for pathogen exposure. Studies were conducted at different scales and across multiple continents. Few studies undertook original data collection, and SDMs were mostly built with presence-only datasets from public database or surveillance sources. The reliance on existing data sources, using ticks as a proxy for disease risk, may simply reflect a lag in new data acquisition and a thorough understanding of the tick-pathogen ecology involved.

Tracking Community Timing: Pattern and Determinants of Seasonality in Culicoides (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) in Northern Florida

Community dynamics are embedded in hierarchical spatial–temporal scales that connect environmental drivers with species assembly processes. Culicoides species are hematophagous arthropod vectors of orbiviruses that impact wild and domestic ruminants. A better sense of Culicoides dynamics over time is important because sympatric species can lengthen the seasonality of virus transmission. We tested a putative departure from the four seasons calendar in the phenology of Culicoides and the vector subassemblage in the Florida panhandle. Two years of weekly abundance data, temporal scales, persistence and environmental thresholds were analyzed using a tripartite Culicoides β-diversity based modeling approach. Culicoides phenology followed a two-season regime and was explained by stream flow and temperature, but not rainfall. Species richness fit a nested pattern where the species recruitment was maximized during spring months. Midges were active year-round, and two suspected vectors species, Culicoides venustus and Culicoides stellifer, were able to sustain and connect the seasonal modules. Persistence suggests that Orbivirus maintenance does not rely on overwintering and that viruses are maintained year-round, with the seasonal dynamics resembling subtropical Culicoides communities with temporal-overlapping between multivoltine species. Viewing Culicoides-borne orbiviruses as a time-sensitive community-based issue, our results help to recommend when management operations should be delivered.

Exploring environmental coverages of species: a new variable contribution estimation methodology for rulesets from the genetic algorithm for rule-set prediction

Variable contribution estimation for, and determination of variable importance within, ecological niche models (ENMs) remain an important area of research with continuing challenges. Most ENM algorithms provide normally exhaustive searches through variable space; however, selecting variables to include in models is a first challenge. The estimation of the explanatory power of variables and the selection of the most appropriate variable set within models can be a second challenge. Although some ENMs incorporate the variable selection rubric inside the algorithms, there is no integrated rubric to evaluate the variable importance in the Genetic Algorithm for Ruleset Production (GARP). Here, we designed a novel variable selection methodology based on the rulesets generated from a GARP experiment. The importance of the variables in a GARP experiment can be estimated based on the consideration of the prevalence of each environmental variable in the dominant presence rules of the best subset of models and its coverage. We tested the performance of this variable selection method based on simulated species with both weak and strong responses to simulated environmental covariates. The variable selection method generally performed well during the simulations with over 2/3 of the trials correctly identifying most covariates. We then predict the distribution of Toxostoma rufum (a bird with a cosmopolitan distribution) in the continental United States (US) and apply our variable selection procedure as a real-world example. We found that the distribution of T. rufum could be accurately modeled with 13 or 10 of 21 variables, using an UI cutoff of 0.5 or 0.25, respectively, arriving at parsimonious environmental coverages with good model accuracy. We also provide tools to simulate species distributions for testing ENM approaches using R.

Predicting the Geographic Distribution of the Bacillus anthracis A1.a/Western North American Sub-Lineage for the Continental United States: New Outbreaks, New Genotypes, and New Climate Data

Bacillus anthracis, the causative pathogen of anthrax, is a spore-forming, environmentally maintained bacterium that continues to be a veterinary health problem with outbreaks occurring primarily in wildlife and livestock. Globally, the genetic populations of B. anthracis include multiple lineages, and each may have different ecological requirements and geographical distributions. It is, therefore, essential to identify environmental associations within lineages to predict geographical distributions and risk areas with improved accuracy. Here, we model the ecological niche and predict the geography of the most widespread sublineage of B. anthracis in the continental United States using updated MERRA-derived (Modern Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications; the NASA atmospheric data reanalysis of satellite information with multiple data products) bioclimate variables (i.e., MERRAclim data) and updated soil variables. We filter the occurrence data associated with the A1.a/Western North American sub-lineage of B. anthracis from historical anthrax outbreaks using the multiple-locus variable-number tandem repeat system. In addition, we also incorporate recent cases associated with B. anthracis A1.a sub-lineage from 2008 to 2012 in Montana, Colorado, and Texas. Our results provide the predicted distribution of the A1.a sub-lineage of B. anthracis for the United States with better predictive accuracy and higher spatial resolution than previous estimates. Our prediction serves as an improved disease risk map to better inform anthrax surveillance and control in the United States, particularly the Dakotas and Montana where this sub-lineage is persistent.

Ecological niche modelling to estimate the distribution of Culicoides, potential vectors of bluetongue virus in Senegal

BACKGROUND

Vector-borne diseases are among the leading causes of morbidity and mortality in humans and animals. In the Afrotropical region, some are transmitted by Culicoides, such as Akabane, bluetongue, epizootic haemorrhagic fever and African horse sickness viruses. Bluetongue virus infection has an enormous impact on ruminant production, due to its high morbidity and mortality rates.

METHODS

A nationwide Culicoides trapping campaign was organized at the end of the 2012 rainy season in Senegal. A Maximum Entropy approach (MaxEnt), Boosted Regression Tree (BRT) method and Ecological Niche Factor Analysis (ENFA) were used to develop a predictive spatial model for the distribution of Culicoides, using bio-climatic variables, livestock densities and altitude.

RESULTS

The altitude, maximum temperature of the warmest month, precipitation of the warmest quarter, mean temperature of the wettest quarter, temperature seasonality, precipitation of the wettest quarter and livestock density were among the most important factors to predict suitable habitats of Culicoides. Culicoides occurrences were, in most of the cases, positively correlated to precipitation variables and livestock densities; and negatively correlated to the altitude and temperature indices. The Niayes area and the Groundnut basin were the most suitable habitats predicted.

CONCLUSION

We present ecological niche models for different Culicoides species, namely C. imicola, C. oxystoma, C. enderleini and C. miombo, potential vectors of bluetongue virus, on a nationwide scale in Senegal. Through our modelling approach, we were able to determine the effect of bioclimatic variables on Culicoides habitats and were able to generate maps for the occurrence of Culicoides species. This information will be helpful in developing risk maps for disease outbreaks.

Thermal biology of mosquito-borne disease

Mosquito-borne diseases cause a major burden of disease worldwide. The vital rates of these ectothermic vectors and parasites respond strongly and nonlinearly to temperature and therefore to climate change. Here, we review how trait-based approaches can synthesise and mechanistically predict the temperature dependence of transmission across vectors, pathogens, and environments. We present 11 pathogens transmitted by 15 different mosquito species - including globally important diseases like malaria, dengue, and Zika - synthesised from previously published studies. Transmission varied strongly and unimodally with temperature, peaking at 23-29ºC and declining to zero below 9-23ºC and above 32-38ºC. Different traits restricted transmission at low versus high temperatures, and temperature effects on transmission varied by both mosquito and parasite species. Temperate pathogens exhibit broader thermal ranges and cooler thermal minima and optima than tropical pathogens. Among tropical pathogens, malaria and Ross River virus had lower thermal optima (25-26ºC) while dengue and Zika viruses had the highest (29ºC) thermal optima. We expect warming to increase transmission below thermal optima but decrease transmission above optima. Key directions for future work include linking mechanistic models to field transmission, combining temperature effects with control measures, incorporating trait variation and temperature variation, and investigating climate adaptation and migration.