Investigating the probability of establishment of Zika virus and detection through mosquito surveillance under different temperature conditions

COVID-19, SDGs and public health systems: Linkages in Brazil

Background

The global 2030 Agenda covers a range of interconnected issues which need interdisciplinary and holistic approaches to improve human well-being and protect the natural environment. The COVID-19 pandemic has brought to light critical inequities in society and policy gaps in health services. As highlighted through analyses of the interlinkages among the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), connections between human health and well-being and the environment, can help support new policy needs in addressing systemic health crises, including widespread pandemics.

Method

We identify links between the COVID-19 crisis and multiple SDGs in the context of Brazil based on a review of the current literature in the health sector.Findings: We identify synergistic connections between 88 out of 169 SDG targets and COVID-19, notably around themes such as City Environment, Contextual Policies and the value created by improved Information and Technology. Using the context of the Brazilian National Health Service (SUS) highlights recurrent interconnections from the focal point of target 3.8. This includes topics such as challenges for universal healthcare coverage, budget allocation, and universalisation.

Conclusions

The framework developed for supporting policy-making decisions and the design of toolkits for dealing with future health-related emergency scenarios offers a practical solution in the health sector. It is worth noting that progress and action on public health systems and policies must go hand in hand with addressing existing socio-economic vulnerabilities in society. This is vital for tackling future pandemics and simultaneously addressing the SDGs.

Temperature and transmission of chikungunya, dengue, and Zika viruses: A systematic review of experimental studies on Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus

Mosquito-borne viruses are leading causes of morbidity and mortality in many parts of the world. In recent years, modelling studies have shown that climate change strongly influences vector-borne disease transmission, particularly rising temperatures. As a result, the risk of epidemics has increased, posing a significant public health risk. This review aims to summarize all published laboratory experimental studies carried out over the years to determine the impact of temperature on the transmission of arboviruses by the mosquito vector. Given their high public health importance, we focus on dengue, chikungunya, and Zika viruses, which are transmitted by the mosquitoes Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. Following PRISMA guidelines, 34 papers were included in this systematic review. Most studies found that increasing temperatures result in higher rates of infection, dissemination, and transmission of these viruses in mosquitoes, although several studies had differing findings. Overall, the studies reviewed here suggest that rising temperatures due to climate change would alter the vector competence of mosquitoes to increase epidemic risk, but that some critical research gaps remain.

How do i bite thee? let me count the ways: Exploring the implications of individual biting habits of Aedes aegypti for dengue transmission

In models of mosquito-borne transmission, the mosquito biting rate is an influential parameter, and understanding the heterogeneity of the process of biting is important, as biting is usually assumed to be relatively homogeneous across individuals, with time-between-bites described by an exponentially distributed process. However, these assumptions have not been addressed through laboratory experimentation. We experimentally investigated the daily biting habits of Ae. aegypti at three temperatures (24°C, 28°C, and 32°C) and determined that there was individual heterogeneity in biting habits (number of bites, timing of bites, etc.). We further explored the consequences of biting heterogeneity using an individual-based model designed to examine whether a particular biting profile determines whether a mosquito is more or less likely to 1) become exposed given a single index case of dengue (DENV) and 2) transmit to a susceptible human individual. Our experimental results indicate that there is heterogeneity among individuals and among temperature treatments. We further show that this results in altered probabilities of transmission of DENV to and from individual mosquitoes based on biting profiles. While current model representation of biting may work under some conditions, it might not uniformly be the best fit for this process. Our data also confirm that biting is a non-monotonic process with temperatures around 28°C being optimum.

Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 virus and ambient temperature: a critical review

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has brought unprecedented public health, and social and economic challenges. It remains unclear whether seasonal changes in ambient temperature will alter spreading trajectory of the COVID-19 epidemic. The probable mechanism on this is still lacking. This review summarizes the most recent research data on the effect of ambient temperature on the COVID-19 epidemic characteristic. The available data suggest that (i) mesophilic traits of viruses are different due to their molecular composition; (ii) increasing ambient temperature decreases the persistence of some viruses in aquatic media; (iii) a 1°C increase in the average monthly minimum ambient temperatures (AMMAT) was related to a 0.72% fewer mammalian individuals that would be infected by coronavirus; (iv) proportion of zoonotic viruses of mammals including humans is probably related to their body temperature difference; (v) seasonal divergence between the northern and southern hemispheres may be a significant driver in determining a waved trajectory in the next 2 years. Further research is needed to understand its effects and mechanisms of global temperature change so that effective strategies can be adopted to curb its natural effects. This paper mainly explores possible scientific hypothesis and evidences that local communities and authorities should consider to find optimal solutions that can limit the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 virus.

A Method for Repeated, Longitudinal Sampling of Individual Aedes aegypti for Transmission Potential of Arboviruses

Mosquito-borne viruses are the cause of significant morbidity and mortality worldwide, especially in low- and middle-income countries. Assessing risk for viral transmission often involves characterization of the vector competence of vector-virus pairings. The most common determination of vector competence uses discreet, terminal time points, which cannot be used to investigate variation in transmission aspects, such as biting behavior, over time. Here, we present a novel method to longitudinally measure individual biting behavior and Zika virus (ZIKV) transmission. Individual mosquitoes were exposed to ZIKV, and from 9 to 24 days post-exposure, individuals were each offered a 180 μL bloodmeal every other day. Biting behavior was observed and characterized as either active probing, feeding, or no bite. The bloodmeal was then collected, spun down, serum collected, and tested for ZIKV RNA via qRT-PCR to determine individuals' vector competence over time. This included whether transmission to the bloodmeal was successful and the titer of expectorated virus. Additionally, serum was inoculated onto Vero cells in order to determine infectiousness of positive recovered sera. Results demonstrate heterogeneity in not only biting patterns but expectorated viral titers among individual mosquitoes over time. These findings demonstrate that the act of transmission is a complex process governed by mosquito behavior and mosquito-virus interaction, and herein we offer a method to investigate this phenomenon.

Warming temperatures could expose more than 1.3 billion new people to Zika virus risk by 2050

In the aftermath of the 2015 pandemic of Zika virus (ZIKV), concerns over links between climate change and emerging arboviruses have become more pressing. Given the potential that much of the world might remain at risk from the virus, we used a previously established temperature-dependent transmission model for ZIKV to project climate change impacts on transmission suitability risk by mid-century (a generation into the future). Based on these model predictions, in the worst-case scenario, over 1.3 billion new people could face suitable transmission temperatures for ZIKV by 2050. The next generation will face substantially increased ZIKV transmission temperature suitability in North America and Europe, where naïve populations might be particularly vulnerable. Mitigating climate change even to moderate emissions scenarios could significantly reduce global expansion of climates suitable for ZIKV transmission, potentially protecting around 200 million people. Given these suitability risk projections, we suggest an increased priority on research establishing the immune history of vulnerable populations, modeling when and where the next ZIKV outbreak might occur, evaluating the efficacy of conventional and novel intervention measures, and increasing surveillance efforts to prevent further expansion of ZIKV.

Age-structured vectorial capacity reveals timing, not magnitude of within-mosquito dynamics is critical for arbovirus fitness assessment

Background

Transmission dynamics of arboviruses like Zika virus are often evaluated by vector competence (the proportion of infectious vectors given exposure) and the extrinsic incubation period (EIP, the time it takes for a vector to become infectious), but vector age is another critical driver of transmission dynamics. Vectorial capacity (VC) is a measure of transmission potential of a vector-pathogen system, but how these three components, EIP, vector competence and vector age, affect VC in concert still needs study.

Methods

The interaction of vector competence, EIP, and mosquito age at the time of infection acquisition (Age_acquisition) was experimentally measured in an Aedes aegypti-ZIKV model system, as well as the age-dependence of probability of survival and the willingness to bite. An age-structured vectorial capacity framework (VC_age) was then developed using both EIP_Min and EIP_Max, defined as the time to first observed minimum proportion of transmitting mosquitoes and the time to observed maximum proportion of transmitting mosquitoes.

Results

The within-mosquito dynamics of vector competence/EIP were not significant among treatments where mosquitoes were exposed at different ages. However, VC_age revealed: (i) age-dependence in vector-virus interactions is important for transmission success; (ii) lower vector competence but at shorter EIPs was sufficient for transmission perpetuation; and (iii) R₀ may be overestimated by using non-age-structured VC.

Conclusions

The results indicate that ultimately the temporal component of the virus-vector dynamics is most critical, especially when exposure occurred at advanced mosquito age. While our study is limited to a single virus-vector system, and a multitude of other factors affect both vector competence and mosquito mortality, our methods can be extrapolated to these other scenarios. Results indicate that how ‘highly’ or ‘negligibly’ competent vectors are categorized may need adjustment.

Short Report: Asymptomatic Zika virus infections with low viral loads not likely to establish transmission in New Orleans Aedes populations

Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus are both vectors of Zika virus and both are endemic to the New Orleans Metropolitan area. Fortunately, to date there has been no known autochthonous transmission of Zika virus in New Orleans. No studies of the vector competence of local populations of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus for Zika virus transmission have been conducted. To determine if New Orleans Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus mosquitoes are competent for Zika virus, mosquitoes were reared to generation F3 from eggs collected in New Orleans during the 2018 mosquito season. Adults were fed an infectious blood meal and kept for 15 days in an environmental chamber. Transmission assays were conducted at 4, 10, and 15 days post exposure and RT-PCR was run on bodies and saliva to detect the presence of Zika virus RNA. We observed remarkably low susceptibility of both Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus from New Orleans to a Zika strain from Panama after oral challenge. These results suggest a limited risk of Zika virus transmission should it be introduced to the New Orleans area, and may partially explain why no transmission was detected in Louisiana during the 2016 epidemic in the Americas, despite multiple known travel associated introductions to New Orleans. Despite these results these mosquito populations are known to be competent vectors for some other mosquito-borne viruses and control measures should not be relaxed.

Increased temperatures reduce the vectorial capacity of Aedes mosquitoes for Zika virus

Rapid and significant range expansion of both Zika virus (ZIKV) and its Aedes vector species has resulted in ZIKV being declared a global health threat. Mean temperatures are projected to increase globally, likely resulting in alterations of the transmission potential of mosquito-borne pathogens. To understand the effect of diurnal temperature range on the vectorial capacity of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus for ZIKV, longevity, blood-feeding and vector competence were assessed at two temperature regimes following feeding on infectious blood meals. Higher temperatures resulted in decreased longevity of Ae. aegypti [Log-rank test, χ2, df 35.66, 5, P < 0.001] and a decrease in blood-feeding rates of Ae. albopictus [Fisher's exact test, P < 0.001]. Temperature had a population and species-specific impact on ZIKV infection rates. Overall, Ae. albopictus reared at the lowest temperature regime demonstrated the highest vectorial capacity (0.53) and the highest transmission efficiency (57%). Increased temperature decreased vectorial capacity across groups yet more significant effects were measured with Ae. aegypti relative to Ae. albopictus. The results of this study suggest that future increases in temperature in the Americas could significantly impact vector competence, blood-feeding and longevity, and potentially decrease the overall vectorial capacity of Aedes mosquitoes in the Americas.