Influence of early specialization in world-ranked swimmers and general patterns to success

Career factors related to winning Olympic medals in swimming

To investigate associations between a swimmer's career progression and winning a medal at the Olympic Games (OG) or World Championships (WC). A total of 4631 swimming performances of 1535 top swimmers (653 women, 882 men) from 105 nationalities since1973 were extracted from FINA rankings. A panel of 12 predictor variables including nationality, gender, competition, age, number and timing of competitions, pattern of progressions and regressions in performance, and medal outcomes was established. Linear logistic regression was used to study the association between winning a medal and predictor variables. Logistic regression coefficients were obtained by training on 80% of the database, and prediction accuracy evaluated on the remaining 20%. Using the training set, a selection of 9 most relevant features for prediction of winning a medal (target variable) was obtained through exhaustive feature selection and cross-validation: nationality, competition, number of competitions, number of annual career progressions (nb_prog), maximum annual career progression (max-progr), number of annual career regressions (nb_reg), age at maximum annual progression, P6 (the level of performance six months before the World Championships or Olympic Games), and P2 (the level of performance two months before the World Championships or Olympic Games). A logistic regression model was built and retrained on the entire training set achieved an area under the ROC curve of ~90% on the test set. The odds of winning a medal increased by 1.64 (95% CI, 1.39-1.91) and 1.44 (1.22-1.72) for each unit of increase in max-progr and n-prog, respectively. Odds of winning a medal decreased by 0.60 (0.49-0.72) for a unit increase in n-reg. In contrast, the odds increased by 1.70 (1.39-2.07) and 4.35 (3.48-5.42) for improvements in the 6 and 2 months before competition (P<0.001, for all variables). The likelihood of a swimmer winning an international medal is improved by ~40-90% with progressions from season-to-season, and reducing the number of regressions in performance. The chances of success are also improved 2- to 4-fold by substantial improvements in performance in the months before competition.

Variation vs. specialization: the dose-time-effect of technical and physiological variety in the development of elite swimmers

OBJECTIVE

It is heavily discussed whether larger variety or specialization benefit elite performance at peak age. Therefore, this study aimed to determine technical (number of different swimming strokes) and physiological (number of different race distances) variety required to become an international-class swimmer (> 750 swimming points) based on 1'522'803 race results.

RESULTS

Correlation analyses showed lower technical variety in higher ranked swimmers (P < 0.001), yet with small effects (0.11-0.30). However, Poisson distribution revealed dose-time-effects and specified number of swimming strokes required during each age group. Specifically, freestyle swimmers showed highest chances when starting to compete in three to four swimming strokes but reduced their variety to three swimming strokes at the ages of 12/13yrs with another transition to two swimming strokes at the ages of 19/21yrs (female/male swimmers, respectively). Although both sexes showed similar specialization pattern throughout their career, earlier specialization was generally evident in female compared to male swimmers. At peak performance age, freestyle was most frequently combined with butterfly. Swimmers who either kept competing in all five swimming strokes or focused on only one at the beginning of their careers showed lowest probability of becoming an international-class swimmer. Physiological variety increased during junior age but declined again to three race distances towards elite age.

Growing up and reaching for the top: A longitudinal study on swim performance and its underlying characteristics in talented swimmers

The present study strived to gain a more profound understanding of the distinctions in development between swimmers who are considered to be on track to the elite level at late junior age (males aged 16; females aged 15) compared to those who are not. In this effort, swimmers were followed during their pubertal years (males aged 13-15; females aged 12-14), which marks a period when performance development aligns with maturation. Longitudinal data of 90 talented sprint and middle-distance swimmers on season best times (SBT) and underlying performance characteristics (anthropometrics, maximal swimming velocity, stroke index [SI] and countermovement jump [CMJ]) were collected over three swimming seasons. Based on their SBT at late junior age (males aged 16; females aged 15), swimmers were classified as high-performing late juniors or lower-performing late juniors. Retrospectively studying these swimmers, we found that all but two high-performing late juniors were already on track to the elite level at early junior age (males aged 13; females aged 12), evidenced with faster SBT throughout puberty compared to their lower-performing peers (p < 0.05). Independent sample t-tests revealed that high-performing late juniors significantly outscored their lower-performing peers when they were early juniors on maximal swimming velocity (males aged 13-15 and females aged 12-14), SI (males aged 13 and 14; females aged 12), CMJ (females aged 14) and height (females aged 13 and 14, p < 0.05). Additionally, multilevel models showed faster rates of development for high-performing late juniors on maximal swimming velocity (males and females) and SI (males) compared to lower-performing peers throughout puberty (p < 0.05). Higher initial levels of SBT and underlying performance characteristics at early junior age as well as the faster rates of development on SBT, maximal swimming velocity and SI (males only) during the pubertal years, may be crucial factors in maintaining the trajectory towards the elite level after puberty.

Modelling performance by continents in swimming

Introduction: There is a growing interest in the scientific community about the progression and congruity in the performance of talented participants who complete representing different nations in the most important international events. The prediction of incoming performances is nowadays in demand with the objective of returning in talent investment. Talent identification programs have tried to select and develop sports talent over years. However, to our knowledge, there is a lack of research about success in swimming World Championships (WCs) performance considering continents-country and how successful outcomes are influenced by these variables. Therefore, the primary goal is to analyze the effect of early specialization comparing the performance progression model of the countries gathered by continents. Methods: Participant's data from all Junior and Senior WCs between 2006 and 2017 from International Swimming Federation (FINA). One-way ANOVA, ANCOVA and regression model were used to explain whether the variable category, age, best z-score, experience, and continent influences the performance obtained in Absolute WC. Results: Significant differences (p < 0.01) were found between the average performance obtained by the two different categories (junior: swimmers participating in junior WCs before senior WCs; senior: swimmers participating in senior WCs without previous participation in junior WCs), where swimmers from category junior showed significant better performance's times than seniors, except in America. ANCOVA results showed that generally, the greatest differences where in the earliest ages, with best performance registered in category junior in all the continents. Also, the experience was a significant variable in the general model. Conclusion: Swimmers who had participated in junior category prior absolute obtained better performance's times than those swimmers who participated directly in absolute, in the first participation in senior WC. Thus, early specialization is a key factor to obtain better results in senior WCs for all the continents, except in America.

Don't Throw the Baby Out With the Bathwater: Talent in Swimming Sprinting Events Might Be Hidden at Early Age

PURPOSE

This study aimed to describe the career performance progression of elite early- and later-success international swimmers competing in sprint events (ie, 50 and 100 m).

METHODS

The career performance trajectories of 6003 swimmers (50.9% females; 58,760 unique records) competing in the 4 swimming strokes were evaluated. Swimmers with early and later success were identified. The authors identified the top 50 all-time swimmers competing in junior career who did not reach the top 50 rankings in their senior career, and vice versa, and successful swimmers in both junior and senior career.

RESULTS

Early-success swimmers mainly achieved their peak performance before the age of 20 years and approximately 5-6 years before successful senior swimmers or approximately 3-4 years before successful swimmers both in junior and senior careers. The annual performance improvements of later-success swimmers were higher (about 1%-2%) until the age of 20 to 24 years, whereas early-success swimmers showed a performance stagnation at about 16 to 18 years in females and 19 to 20 years in males.

CONCLUSIONS

Early-success swimmers who achieved peak performance at a young age were unable to maintain the same level of competitiveness in adulthood as they experienced a plateau in performance from the age of 20 years. The procedure of considering early performances solely for talent identification (and not the current rate of progression) might represent a limited approach for selecting future elite swimmers. Our results indicate that performance progression in the transition toward adult careers might be a strong indicator of performance potential.

From Junior to Elite in Soccer: Exploring the Relative Age Effect and Talent Selection in Spanish Youth National Teams

The implications of relative age grouping in sport are known as the Relative Age Effect (RAE). This study has the twofold purpose of analyzing RAE in Spanish youth national soccer teams and examining the prediction value of being selected for national youth teams to be a professional. The sample was composed of 548 players divided into five groups. A descriptive analysis of distribution and participation, frequencies, mean and standard deviation, crosstabs, Sankey charts, coefficient correlation and Cohen's effect size criteria and two regression analyses were performed. Results established that the RAE is present in U'17 to U'21 Spanish youth national teams. Talent detection and selection programs are more reliable the closer they are to adulthood, reaching a success rate of almost 100% at the U'21 stage. The selection of players for such programs should be delayed as much as possible, thus, preventing younger players from dropping out and those selected from thinking they have already reached their goal. To this end, they should focus on long-term improvement, not short-term performance. In addition, factors such as the RAE or the maturity level of the athletes should be monitored.

Empirical Support for the Tenets of Sport Participation and Physical Activity-Based Models: A Scoping Review

Notwithstanding their wide-spread use, it is unclear what level of empirical evidence exists to support sport participation and physical activity-based models. Sport participation and physical activity-based models characterize different stages of sport involvement based on sport activities (organized and unorganized) individuals take part in throughout their lifespan. The objectives of this scoping review was to explore the nature of empirical support for tenets of sport participation and physical activity-based models describing the evolution of an individuals' sport participation. Seventeen different sport participation models were identified through an iterative literature review, using a snowball search strategy and expert (n = 8) consultation. Of the identified models, three described the evolution of an individual's sport participation based on their participation in different activities at various stages of sport involvement and were retained for the review. A second literature review identified peer-reviewed publications supporting at least one tenet of these three models. Many tenets of retained models received some empirical support from some of the 38 publications identified, but some tenets were not tested. Most of the evidence supporting tenets originated from studies among elite-level athletes. Whereas some evidence exists to support current sport participation and physical activity models, more research is warranted, particularly among the general population of non-elite athletes, for the models to be used in full confidence to guide sport policies, programs, and practices.

Older or Wiser? Age and Experience Trends in 20 Years of Olympic and World Swimming Championships Open Water 10-km Races

The aims of the present research were to estimate the age of peak performance (APP) and to examine the role of previous experience at the world-level open water race performances. Finishing positions and age of swimmers (639 females and 738 males) in the 10-km events of World Championship (WCH) and Olympic Games (OG) from 2000 to 2019 were obtained from the official results websites. Years of previous experience were computed using the number of previous participations in WCH or OG. APP was estimated using quadratic models of the 10th percentile top race positions and resulted in 28.94 years old for males (R² = 0.551) and 27.40 years old for females (R² = 0.613). Regression analysis revealed an improvement of 1.36 or 8.19 finishing positions for each additional year of age or experience, respectively (R² = 0.157). However, significant differences (p < 0.001) between age and experience showed that the swimmer's age became less relevant for performance as years of experience increased. These results, in terms of age, are in line with other mass-start disciplines of similar duration (≈2 h) and, in terms of experience, confirm the importance of previous participation in improving tactical decision making during open water races.

Early Specialization and Critical Periods in Acquiring Expertise: A Comparison of Traditional Versus Detection Talent Identification in Team GB Cycling at London 2012

The aim of this study was to compare two methodologies employed by the British Cycling talent identification program. Specifically, the authors investigated cyclists selected to represent GB cycling team at the London 2012 Olympics using (a) a traditional talent identification methodology (British Cycling Olympic Development Program), where selection is based upon race results and (b) a detection talent identification methodology (U.K. Sport Talent Team Program), which is a multi-Olympic event initiative that identifies athletic potential from physical and skill-based tests. To facilitate this comparison, the authors calculated the speed with which expertise was acquired. A Mann–Whitney U test (U = 16.0, p = .031) indicated that the speed of acquiring expertise was quicker in detection talent identification (Mdn = 5.4) than traditional talent identification (Mdn = 7.2). Practice started later with detection talent identification than with traditional talent identification (14.12 years vs. 11.23 years, respectively), which affected the period to excellence. Thus, detection talent identification resulted in an absence of early specialization, which suggests a critical period for attaining cycling expertise. The authors hypothesize a genetic basis of talent and propose that critical periods are important in detection talent identification programs.

Being a top swimmer during the early career is not a prerequisite for success: A study on sprinter strokes

OBJECTIVES

To quantify the junior-to-senior successful transition rate in sprint swimming events in elite European performers.

DESIGN

Retrospective analysis of publicly available competition data collected between 2004 and 2019.

METHODS

The yearly performance of 6631 European swimmers (females = 41.8% of the sample) competing in 50 and 100 m freestyle, backstroke, breaststroke, and butterfly were included in the analysis. The junior-to-senior transition rate was determined as the number of elite junior athletes who maintained their elite status in adulthood. To investigate how the definition of elite may affect the calculation of the transition rate, we operationally defined elite athletes as those ranked in the all-time top 10, 25, 50, and 100 in their category. We also calculated the correlation between junior and senior performances.

RESULTS

The average transition rates ranged, depending on the age of reference, from 10 to 26% in males and from 23 to 33% in females. The transition rate for the top 100 junior swimmers was greater than that for the top 10 swimmers. In general, swimmers who swam 50 m showed a slightly lower transition rate compared with those that swam 100 m. Depending on the age of reference, low-to-moderate correlations were observed between junior and senior peak performances.

CONCLUSIONS

Most elite junior athletes did not maintain the elite level in adulthood. Except for athletes in the last year of the junior category (18 years for males and 17 years for females), junior performances were poorly correlated with senior performances.

World-Class Sprinters’ Careers: Early Success Does Not Guarantee Success at Adult Age

Purpose: To quantify how many of the top 50 under-18 (U18) sprinters in the world managed to become top 50 ranked as adult competitors. The authors also described the career trajectory of athletes ranked in the top 50 during either U18 or senior category. Methods: A total of 4924 male and female athletes competing in sprint races and ranked in the International Association of Athletics Federations (now World Athletics) lists in any of the seasons between the 2000 and 2018 were included in the study. The athletes ranked in the top 50 positions of all-time lists during U18, senior, or both categories were analyzed. Results: Only 17% of the male and 21% of the female top 50 ranked U18 managed to become top 50 ranked senior athletes. The top 50 ranked senior athletes consistently produced yearly larger improvements during late adolescence and early adulthood compared with those who ranked in the top 50 at U18. Furthermore, top 50 ranked senior athletes reached their peak performance later compared with the top 50 ranked only in U18. Conclusions: This study confirms that early success in track and field is not a good predictor of success at senior level in sprinting events. The yearly performance improvements and their tracking provide the most suitable approach to identify athletes more likely to succeed as elite performers in adulthood. The authors hope that the results of this study can provide useful comparative data and reference criteria for talent-identification and -development programs.

Involvement in Multiple Race Events Among International Para and Non-disabled Swimmers

International elite Para swimmers form a large portion of the overall multi-medalist winning population. For the highest performing Para swimmers, world class performances were achieved across different strokes. The aim of this study was to quantify the level of involvement across different events and to examine this in relation to the level of performance. The performances in swimming speed of the top 100 females and males for both Para- and non-disabled swimmers were collected in 11 race events between 2009 and 2019 (4,400 performances for 307 Para females and 365 Para males, 605 non-disabled females, and 715 non-disabled males). We tallied the number of events in which each swimmer was involved. Swimmers were grouped according to the total number of race events in which they participated. Then the association between involvement and level of performance was investigated. Para swimmers with impairment from classes seven to 14 were involved in a range of race events across different strokes. The most common combination for both Para and non-disabled athletes was over similarly distanced races of the same stroke (50 and 100 m freestyle). The more race events in which Para swimmers involved, the higher the level of performance that was achieved. This trend can partially be explained by the less concentrated competition pool for Para swimmers compared to able-bodied swimmers. Para swimmers with minimal and no physical impairment perform in multiple race events more often than able-bodied swimmers. Fewer Para swimmers at the international level and a less concentrated competition pool could explain these differences.

Swimming World Championships: Association between Success at the Junior and Senior Level for British Swimmers

The present study examines the association between the success at junior and senior level for British swimmers in World Championships (WCs). It also explores the relationships between swimming performance and the swimmers’ gender, swim stroke, distance, status (finalist, semifinalist and heats) and swimming category. Data were collected for swimmers participating in junior and/or senior World Championships (29,000 entries: 5585 swimmers) from 2006–2017. The final filtered database included only swimmers from the United Kingdom (836 entries: 141 swimmers). A descriptive analysis was made to characterize the swimmers who reached elite status in the senior category. A lineal regression model was run by gender to predict the influence of category, swim stroke, and distance in the results reached in the senior category. The results showed that the ratio of conversion from junior to senior was quite low. Females who participated in both junior and senior WCs were likely to reach top positions in the senior category. Overall, few British swimmers participated in a junior category before the senior level, but female swimmers participating in both junior and senior WCs were likely to reach top positions in the senior category.

Competition-Based Success Factors During the Talent Pathway of Elite Male Swimmers

Marginal differences in race results between top swimmers have evoked the interest in competition-based success factors of long-term athlete development. To identify novel factors for the multi-dimensional model of talent development, the aim of the study was to investigate annual variation in competition performance (ACV), number of races per year, and age. Therefore, 45,398 race results of all male participants (n = 353) competing in individual events, i.e., butterfly, backstroke, breaststroke, freestyle, and individual medley, at the 2018 European Long-Course Swimming Championships (2018EC) were analyzed retrospectively for all 10 years prior to the championships with Pearson's correlation coefficient and multiple linear regression analysis. Higher ranked swimmers at the 2018EC showed significant medium correlations with a greater number of races per year and small but significant correlations with higher ACV in 10 and nine consecutive years, respectively, prior to the championships. Additionally, better swimmers were older than their lower ranked peers (r = −0.21, p < 0.001). Regression model explained a significant proportion of 2018EC ranking for 50 m (47%), 100 m (45%), 200 m (31%), and 400 m races (29%) but not for 800 and 1,500 m races with number of races having the largest effect followed by age and ACV. In conclusion, higher performance variation with results off the personal best in some races did not impair success at the season's main event and young competitors at international championships may benefit from success chances that increase with age. The higher number of races swum per year throughout the career of higher ranked swimmers may have provided learning opportunities and specific adaptations. Future studies should quantify these success factors in a multi-dimensional talent development model.

Variation in competition performance, number of races, and age: Long-term athlete development in elite female swimmers

While talent development and the contributing factors to success are hardly discussed among the experts in the field, the aim of the study was to investigate annual variation in competition performance (AVCP), number of races per year, and age, as potential success factors for international swimming competitions. Data from 40’277 long-course races, performed by all individual female starters (n = 253) at the 2018 European Swimming Championships (2018EC) for all 10 years prior to these championships, were analyzed. Relationships between 2018EC ranking and potential success factors, i.e., AVCP, number of races per year, and age, were determined using Pearson’s correlation coefficient and multiple linear regression analysis. While AVCP was not related to ranking, higher ranked swimmers at the 2018EC swam more races during each of the ten years prior to the championships (P < 0.001). Additionally, older athletes were more successful (r = -0.42, P < 0.001). The regression model explained highly significant proportions (P < 0.001) and 43%, 34%, 35%, 49% of total variance in the 2018EC ranking for 50m, 100m, 200m, and 400m races, respectively. As number of races per year (β = -0.29 –-0.40) had a significant effect on ranking of 50-400m races, and age (β = -0.40 –-0.61) showed a significant effect on ranking over all race distances, number of races per year and age may serve as success factors for international swimming competitions. The larger number of races swum by higher ranked female swimmers may have aided long-term athlete development regarding technical, physiological, and mental skill acquisitions. As older athletes were more successful, female swimmers under the age of peak performance, who did not reach semi-finals or finals, may increase their chances of success in following championships with increased experience.

Analysis of World Championship Swimmers Using a Performance Progression Model

Purpose

The primary aim was to create a performance progression model of elite competitors in the World Swimming Championships from 2006 to 2017 for all strokes and distances. Secondly, to identify the influence of annual ratios of progression, ages of peak performance and junior status on success in senior competitions.

Methods

Data regarding the participants of senior and junior World Championships (WCs) between 2006 and 2017 were obtained from FINA. The final filtered database, after removing those swimmers who just participated in junior WCs, included 4076. Statistical models were used to examine differences between the top senior swimmers (the top 30% best performances; T30) and lower level swimmers (the bottom 70% performances; L70) for minimum age (MA), progress (P) and best junior time (BJ). In order to identify the variables that contribute to reach the T30 group, a logistic regression (LR), stepwise LR and decision tree were applied. To analyze the effect of each variable separately, a simple LR (gross odds ratio) was performed. Ratio probabilities (OR) and 95% confidence intervals were calculated for each variable.

Results

Swimmer’s BJ and P were higher in the T30 group (p < 0.000). The decision tree showed the greatest explanatory capacity for BJ, followed by P. The MA had a very low explanatory capacity and was not significant in the LR.

Conclusion

Swimmers with exceptional junior performance times, or have a high rate of progress are more likely to be successful at the senior WCs.