Anthropogenic landscape decreases mosquito biodiversity and drives malaria vector proliferation in the Amazon rainforest

Vector mosquito distribution and richness are predicted by socio-economic, and ecological variables

Mosquitoes of vectorial importance represent a ubiquitous and constant threat of potentially devastating arboviral outbreaks. Our ability to predict such outcomes is still restricted. To answer this, we have used an extensive data collection of 23 vector and 233 non-vector mosquito species distributed throughout the Mexican territory and linked them to social and environmental factors. Our aim was to predict vector and non-vector mosquitoes' distribution and species richness based on socioeconomic and environmental data. We found that lack of health services, human population variation, ecological degradation, and urban-rural categorization contributed significantly to explain the distribution of vector mosquitoes. mosquitoes. This phenomenon is probably attributed to the degradation of natural ecosystems as it creates favorable conditions for the proliferation of vector mosquitoes. The richness of vector mosquitoes was similarly explained by most of these variables as well as altitude. As for non-vector mosquitoes, social marginalization, ecological degradation, anthropogenic impact, and altitude explain species richness and distribution. These findings illustrate the complex interaction of environmental and socioeconomic factors behind the distribution of mosquitoes, and the potential for arboviral disease outbreaks. Areas with human populations at highest risk for mosquito-borne diseases should be primary targets for vector control.

Forest cover percentage drives the peak biting time of Nyssorhynchus darlingi (Diptera: Culicidae) in the Brazilian Amazon

BACKGROUND

Deforestation is an important driver of malaria dynamics, with a relevant impact on mosquito ecology, including larval habitat availability, blood-feeding behaviour, and peak biting time. The latter is one of several entomological metrics to evaluate vectorial capacity and effectiveness of disease control. This study aimed to test the effect of forest cover percentage on the peak biting time of Plasmodium-uninfected and infected Nyssorhynchus darlingi females.

METHODS

Mosquitoes were captured utilizing human landing catch (HLC) in the peridomestic habitat in field collections carried out in the wet, wet-dry transition, and dry seasons from 2014 to 2017 in areas with active malaria transmission in Amazonian Brazil. The study locations were in rural settlements in areas with the mean annual malaria parasite incidence (Annual Parasite Incidence, API ≥ 30). All Ny. darlingi females were tested for Plasmodium spp. infection using real time PCR technique. Forest cover percentage was calculated for each collection site using QGIS v. 2.8 and was categorized in three distinct deforestation scenarios: (1) degraded, < 30% forest cover, (2) intermediate, 30-70% forest cover, and (3) preserved, > 70% forest cover.

RESULTS

The highest number of uninfected female Ny. darlingi was found in degraded landscape-sites with forest cover < 30% in any peak biting time between 18:00 and 0:00. Partially degraded landscape-sites, with (30-70%) forest cover, showed the highest number of vivax-infected females, with a peak biting time of 21:00-23:00. The number of P. falciparum-infected mosquitoes was highest in preserved sites with > 70% forest cover, a peak biting at 19:00-20:00, and in sites with 30-70% forest cover at 22:00-23:00.

CONCLUSIONS

Results of this study show empirically that degraded landscapes favour uninfected Ny. darlingi with a peak biting time at dusk (18:00-19:00), whereas partially degraded landscapes affect the behaviour of Plasmodium-infected Ny. darlingi by shifting its peak biting time towards hours after dark (21:00-23:00). In preserved sites, Plasmodium-infected Ny. darlingi bite around dusk (18:00-19:00) and shortly after (19:00-20:00).

Landscape and Socioeconomic Factors Determine Malaria Incidence in Tropical Forest Countries

Deforestation, landscape dynamics, and socioeconomic factors within the tropical Americas, Africa, and Asia may have different impacts on malaria incidence. To evaluate how these drivers affect malaria incidence at the global and regional scale, we collected malaria incidence rates from 2000 to 2019 from 67 tropical countries, along with forest loss, land use change types, and socioeconomic elements. LASSO regression, linear mixed effect modeling, and k-fold cross validation were used to create and evaluate the models. Regionality plays a role in the significance of varying risk factors. The Tropical Americas model had the highest coefficient of determination (marginal R2 = 0.369), while the Africa model showed the highest predictive accuracy with only a 17.4% error rate. Strong associations between tree cover loss (β = -4037.73, p < 0.001) and percentage forest area (β = 5373.18, p = 0.012) in Africa, and percent of key biodiversity areas under protection (β = 496.71, p < 0.001; β = 1679.20, p < 0.001) in the tropical Americas and Asia with malaria incidence indicates that malaria risk should be considered during conservation policy development, and recommends that individual approaches to policy and investment be considered when implementing malaria interventions on different spatial scales.

Effect of spatiotemporal variables on abundance, biting activity and parity of Nyssorhynchus darlingi (Diptera: Culicidae) in peri-Iquitos, Peru

BACKGROUND

In malaria endemic regions of the Peruvian Amazon, rainfall together with river level and breeding site availability drive fluctuating vector mosquito abundance and human malaria cases, leading to temporal heterogeneity. The main variables influencing spatial transmission include location of communities, mosquito behaviour, land use/land cover, and human ecology/behaviour. The main objective was to evaluate seasonal and microgeographic biting behaviour of the malaria vector Nyssorhynchus (or Anopheles) darlingi in Amazonian Peru and to investigate effects of seasonality on malaria transmission.

METHODS

We captured mosquitoes from 18:00 to 06:00 h using Human Landing Catch in two riverine (Lupuna, Santa Emilia) and two highway (El Triunfo, Nuevo Horizonte) communities indoors and outdoors from 8 houses per community, during the dry and rainy seasons from February 2016 to January 2017. We then estimated parity rate, daily survival and age of a portion of each collection of Ny. darlingi. All collected specimens of Ny. darlingi were tested for the presence of Plasmodium vivax or Plasmodium falciparum sporozoites using real-time PCR targeting the small subunit of the 18S rRNA.

RESULTS

Abundance of Ny. darlingi varied across village, season, and biting behaviour (indoor vs outdoor), and was highly significant between rainy and dry seasons (p < 0.0001). Biting patterns differed, although not significantly, and persisted regardless of season, with peaks in highway communities at ~ 20:00 h in contrast to biting throughout the night (i.e., 18:00-06:00) in riverine communities. Of 3721 Ny. darlingi tested for Plasmodium, 23 (0.62%) were infected. We detected Plasmodium-infected Ny. darlingi in both community types and most (20/23) were captured outdoors during the rainy season; 17/23 before midnight. Seventeen Ny. darlingi were infected with P. vivax, and 6 with P. falciparum. No infected Ny. darlingi were captured during the dry season. Significantly higher rates of parity were detected in Ny. darlingi during the rainy season (average 64.69%) versus the dry season (average 36.91%) and by community, Lupuna, a riverine village, had the highest proportion of parous to nulliparous females during the rainy season.

CONCLUSIONS

These data add a seasonal dimension to malaria transmission in peri-Iquitos, providing more evidence that, at least locally, the greatest risk of malaria transmission is outdoors during the rainy season mainly before midnight, irrespective of whether the community was located adjacent to the highway or along the river.

Local tree cover predicts mosquito species richness and disease vector presence in a tropical countryside landscape

Context

Land use change drives both biodiversity loss and zoonotic disease transmission in tropical countryside landscapes. Developing solutions for protecting countryside biodiversity, public health, and livelihoods requires understanding the scales at which habitat characteristics such as land cover shape biodiversity, especially for arthropods that transmit pathogens. Evidence increasingly shows that species richness for many taxa correlates with local tree cover.

Objectives

We investigated whether mosquito species richness, community composition, and presence of disease vector species responded to land use and tree cover - and if so, whether at spatial scales similar to other taxa.

Methods

We paired a field survey of mosquito communities in agricultural, residential, and forested lands in rural southern Costa Rica with remotely sensed tree cover data. We compared mosquito community responses to tree cover surrounding survey sites measured across scales, and analyzed community responses to land use and environmental gradients.

Results

Tree cover was positively correlated with mosquito species richness, and negatively correlated with the presence of the common invasive dengue vector Aedes albopictus, particularly at small spatial scales of 80 - 200m. Land use predicted community composition and Ae. albopictus presence. Environmental gradients of tree cover, temperature, and elevation explained 7% of species turnover among survey sites.

Conclusions

The results suggest that preservation and expansion of tree cover at local scales can protect biodiversity for a wide range of taxa, including arthropods, and also confer protection against disease vector occurrence. The identified spatial range of tree cover benefits can inform land management for conservation and public health protection.

Local tree cover predicts mosquito species richness and disease vector presence in a tropical countryside landscape

Context

Land use change drives both biodiversity loss and zoonotic disease transmission in tropical countryside landscapes. Developing solutions for protecting countryside biodiversity, public health, and livelihoods requires understanding the scales at which habitat characteristics such as land cover shape biodiversity, especially for arthropods that transmit pathogens. Evidence increasingly shows that species richness for many taxa correlates with local tree cover.

Objectives

We investigated whether mosquito species richness, community composition, and presence of disease vector species responded to land use and tree cover - and if so, whether at spatial scales similar to other taxa.

Methods

We paired a field survey of mosquito communities in agricultural, residential, and forested lands in rural southern Costa Rica with remotely sensed tree cover data. We compared mosquito community responses to tree cover surrounding survey sites measured across scales, and analyzed community responses to land use and environmental gradients.

Results

Tree cover was positively correlated with mosquito species richness, and negatively correlated with the presence of the common invasive dengue vector Aedes albopictus , particularly at small spatial scales of 80 - 200m. Land use predicted community composition and Ae. albopictus presence. Environmental gradients of tree cover, temperature, and elevation explained 7% of species turnover among survey sites.

Conclusions

The results suggest that preservation and expansion of tree cover at local scales can protect biodiversity for a wide range of taxa, including arthropods, and also confer protection against disease vector occurrence. The identified spatial range of tree cover benefits can inform land management for conservation and public health protection.

Investigating the Impact of Irrigation on Malaria Vector Larval Habitats and Transmission Using a Hydrology-Based Model

A combination of accelerated population growth and severe droughts has created pressure on food security and driven the development of irrigation schemes across sub-Saharan Africa. Irrigation has been associated with increased malaria risk, but risk prediction remains difficult due to the heterogeneity of irrigation and the environment. While investigating transmission dynamics is helpful, malaria models cannot be applied directly in irrigated regions as they typically rely only on rainfall as a source of water to quantify larval habitats. By coupling a hydrologic model with an agent-based malaria model for a sugarcane plantation site in Arjo, Ethiopia, we demonstrated how incorporating hydrologic processes to estimate larval habitats can affect malaria transmission. Using the coupled model, we then examined the impact of an existing irrigation scheme on malaria transmission dynamics. The inclusion of hydrologic processes increased the variability of larval habitat area by around two-fold and resulted in reduction in malaria transmission by 60%. In addition, irrigation increased all habitat types in the dry season by up to 7.4 times. It converted temporary and semi-permanent habitats to permanent habitats during the rainy season, which grew by about 24%. Consequently, malaria transmission was sustained all-year round and intensified during the main transmission season, with the peak shifted forward by around 1 month. Lastly, we evaluated the spatiotemporal distribution of adult vectors under the effect of irrigation by resolving habitat heterogeneity. These findings could help larval source management by identifying transmission hotspots and prioritizing resources for malaria elimination planning.

Time lag effect on malaria transmission dynamics in an Amazonian Colombian municipality and importance for early warning systems

Malaria remains a significant public health problem worldwide, particularly in low-income regions with limited access to healthcare. Despite the use of antimalarial drugs, transmission remains an issue in Colombia, especially among indigenous populations in remote areas. In this study, we used an SIR Ross MacDonald model that considered land use change, temperature, and precipitation to analyze eco epidemiological parameters and the impact of time lags on malaria transmission in La Pedrera-Amazonas municipality. We found changes in land use between 2007 and 2020, with increases in forested areas, urban infrastructure and water edges resulting in a constant increase in mosquito carrying capacity. Temperature and precipitation variables exhibited a fluctuating pattern that corresponded to rainy and dry seasons, respectively and a marked influence of the El Niño climatic phenomenon. Our findings suggest that elevated precipitation and temperature increase malaria infection risk in the following 2 months. The risk is influenced by the secondary vegetation and urban infrastructure near primary forest formation or water body edges. These results may help public health officials and policymakers develop effective malaria control strategies by monitoring precipitation, temperature, and land use variables to flag high-risk areas and critical periods, considering the time lag effect.

Mutations Linked to Insecticide Resistance Not Detected in the Ace-1 or VGSC Genes in Nyssorhynchus darlingi from Multiple Localities in Amazonian Brazil and Peru

Indoor residual spray (IRS), mainly employing pyrethroid insecticides, is the most common intervention for preventing malaria transmission in many regions of Latin America; the use of long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) has been more limited. Knockdown resistance (kdr) is a well-characterized target-site resistance mechanism associated with pyrethroid and DDT resistance. Most mutations detected in acetylcholinesterase-1 (Ace-1) and voltage-gated sodium channel (VGSC) genes are non-synonymous, resulting in a change in amino acid, leading to the non-binding of the insecticide. In the present study, we analyzed target-site resistance in Nyssorhynchus darlingi, the primary malaria vector in the Amazon, in multiple malaria endemic localities. We screened 988 wild-caught specimens of Ny. darlingi from three localities in Amazonian Peru and four in Amazonian Brazil. Collections were conducted between 2014 and 2021. The criteria were Amazonian localities with a recent history as malaria hotspots, primary transmission by Ny. darlingi, and the use of both IRS and LLINs as interventions. Fragments of Ace-1 (456 bp) and VGSC (228 bp) were amplified, sequenced, and aligned with Ny. darlingi sequences available in GenBank. We detected only synonymous mutations in the frequently reported Ace-1 codon 280 known to confer resistance to organophosphates and carbamates, but detected three non-synonymous mutations in other regions of the gene. Similarly, no mutations linked to insecticide resistance were detected in the frequently reported codon (995) at the S6 segment of domain II of VGSC. The lack of genotypic detection of insecticide resistance mutations by sequencing the Ace-1 and VGSC genes from multiple Ny. darlingi populations in Brazil and Peru could be associated with low-intensity resistance, or possibly the main resistance mechanism is metabolic.

Malaria Risk Drivers in the Brazilian Amazon: Land Use-Land Cover Interactions and Biological Diversity

Malaria is a prevalent disease in several tropical and subtropical regions, including Brazil, where it remains a significant public health concern. Even though there have been substantial efforts to decrease the number of cases, the reoccurrence of epidemics in regions that have been free of cases for many years presents a significant challenge. Due to the multifaceted factors that influence the spread of malaria, influencing malaria risk factors were analyzed through regional outbreak cluster analysis and spatio-temporal models in the Brazilian Amazon, incorporating climate, land use/cover interactions, species richness, and number of endemic birds and amphibians. Results showed that high amphibian and bird richness and endemism correlated with a reduction in malaria risk. The presence of forest had a risk-increasing effect, but it depended on its juxtaposition with anthropic land uses. Biodiversity and landscape composition, rather than forest formation presence alone, modulated malaria risk in the period. Areas with low endemic species diversity and high human activity, predominantly anthropogenic landscapes, posed high malaria risk. This study underscores the importance of considering the broader ecological context in malaria control efforts.

Change in the faunal composition of mosquitoes (Diptera: Culicidae) along a heterogeneous landscape gradient in the Brazilian Amazon

This study aimed to evaluate the influence of different anthropic landscape profiles on the diversity and distribution of mosquito species in a rural settlement of the Brazilian Amazon. Eight field collections were conducted at 18 sampling points interspersed throughout 2020-2021. Plastic containers, bamboo internodes, and tires were used as traps to capture immature mosquitoes in three distinct habitats: forest, forest edge, and peridomicile. A total of 15,547 individuals, distributed in 26 species of culicids, were collected. The most abundant species were Culex urichii (8,376 specimens), Culex (Melanoconion) (2,473 specimens), and Aedes albopictus (1,252 specimens). Forest habitat showed the highest abundance, and forest edge showed the highest species richness. Different types of environments influenced both the abundance and richness of mosquitoes. The species composition was also significantly different between the analyzed sites, mainly between forest and peridomicile environments. The change in species dominance could largely explain this change in mosquito community composition. Haemagogus janthinomys, an important sylvatic arbovirus vector, was found in peridomicile habitats and Ae. albopictus, a vector associated with human environments, was found in forest habitats, thus providing evidence of species spillover. Our results indicated that landscape changes affect mosquito communities, influencing their richness and abundance. These changes may have implications for future arboviral outbreaks in this rural settlement due to the possible establishment of sylvatic vector species in anthropic environments.

Differing taxonomic responses of mosquito vectors to anthropogenic land-use change in Latin America and the Caribbean

Anthropogenic land-use change, such as deforestation and urban development, can affect the emergence and re-emergence of mosquito-borne diseases, e.g., dengue and malaria, by creating more favourable vector habitats. There has been a limited assessment of how mosquito vectors respond to land-use changes, including differential species responses, and the dynamic nature of these responses. Improved understanding could help design effective disease control strategies. We compiled an extensive dataset of 10,244 Aedes and Anopheles mosquito abundance records across multiple land-use types at 632 sites in Latin America and the Caribbean. Using a Bayesian mixed effects modelling framework to account for between-study differences, we compared spatial differences in the abundance and species richness of mosquitoes across multiple land-use types, including agricultural and urban areas. Overall, we found that mosquito responses to anthropogenic land-use change were highly inconsistent, with pronounced responses observed at the genus- and species levels. There were strong declines in Aedes (-26%) and Anopheles (-35%) species richness in urban areas, however certain species such as Aedes aegypti, thrived in response to anthropogenic disturbance. When abundance records were coupled with remotely sensed forest loss data, we detected a strong positive response of dominant and secondary malaria vectors to recent deforestation. This highlights the importance of the temporal dynamics of land-use change in driving disease risk and the value of large synthetic datasets for understanding changing disease risk with environmental change.

Hernández-Valencia J, F. Gómez G, M. Correa M. Spatial and Temporal Diversity Variation in the Anopheles Communities in Malaria-Endemic Regions of Colombia

This study aimed to evaluate at a temporospatial scale, the influence of anthropogenic land cover changes in the Anopheles species community composition and diversity in two Colombian malaria-endemic regions, Bajo Cauca and Pacific. To determine variations over time, mosquitoes were collected in two time periods; land cover types were characterized on orthorectified aerial photographs, and landscape metrics were estimated for each locality and period. A temporal dissimilarity analysis to evaluated species replacement and the nestedness species loss/gain showed the influence of the species loss or gain component on Anopheles species assemblage (23%). The relationship between land cover variation and Anopheles beta diversity, evaluated by regression analysis, showed the effect of forest variation in the Anopheles community (βsim and forest r2 = 0.9323; βsne and forest r2 = 0.9425). Furthermore, a canonical correspondence analysis showed that the land cover types associated with Anopheles species presence were bare soil, shrub, wet areas, and forest. Results demonstrated the impact of land cover changes attributed to human activities on Anopheles population dynamics, over time; this was evidenced as species loss or gain, which was specific to each locality. Notably, the main malaria vectors were dominant in most localities over time, suggesting their tolerance to anthropogenic transformations; alternatively, the environmental changes are providing adequate ecological conditions for their persistence. Finally, the data generated are relevant for understanding the impact that environmental change may have on the dynamics of the neotropical malaria vectors. Thus, this research has potential implications for vector control interventions.

Worldwide impacts of landscape anthropization on mosquito abundance and diversity: A meta-analysis

In recent decades, the emergence and resurgence of vector-borne diseases have been well documented worldwide, especially in tropical regions where protection and defense tools for human populations are still very limited. In this context, the dynamics of pathogens are influenced by landscape anthropization (i.e., urbanization, deforestation, and agricultural development), and one of the mechanisms through which this occurs is a change in the abundance and/or diversity of the vectors. An increasing number of empirical studies have described heterogeneous effects of landscape anthropization on vector communities; therefore, it is difficult to have an overall picture of these effects on a global scale. Here, we performed a meta-analysis to quantify the impacts of landscape anthropization on a global scale on the presence/abundance and diversity of mosquitoes, the most important arthropods affecting human health. We obtained 338 effect sizes on 132 mosquito species, compiled from 107 studies in 52 countries that covered almost every part of the world. The results of the meta-analysis showed an overall decline of mosquito presence/abundance and diversity in response to urbanization, deforestation, and agricultural development, except for a few mosquito species that have been able to exploit landscape anthropization well. Our results highlighted that these few favored mosquito species are those of global concern. They, thus, provide a better understanding of the overall effect of landscape anthropization on vector communities and, more importantly, suggest a greater risk of emergence and transmission of vector-borne diseases in human-modified landscapes.

Mosquito Diversity in an Experimental Township in Tamil Nadu, India

To glean more information on mosquito diversity and distribution in Auroville, a cross-sectional study was carried out by mapping the distribution of water bodies and habitats supporting immature stages on the one hand and the distribution of water bodies/habitats supporting mosquito immature stages on the other. A satellite image covering an area of 8.08 km2 was overlaid with a grid of 500 × 500 m. Fifteen modules were selected and the area of each module served as the sampling site for the entomological survey. Adult and larval stages were sampled. Diversity indices were analyzed to compare mosquito diversity. Rarefaction estimations were used to compare abundance and richness of the mosquito species between different zones. In total, 750 mosquito larvae and 84 resting adults were sampled. Eighteen species of mosquitoes belonging to 11 subgenera and 7 genera were documented. Genera included Aedes (Johann Wilhelm Meigen 1818, Diptera, Culicidae), Anopheles (Johann Wilhelm Meigen 1818, Diptera, Culicidae), Armigeres (Theobald 1901, Diptera, Culicidae), Culex (Carl Linnaeus 1758, Diptera, Culicidae), Lutzia (Theobald 1903, Diptera, Culicidae), and Mimomyia (Theobald 1903, Diptera, Culicidae). Of the 18 mosquito species identified, 8 species are new records for Auroville. The Alpha (α) biodiversity indices show that the mosquito fauna is diverse (S = 18; DMg = 2.732 [95% CI: 2.732-2.732]). The Shannon-Weiner (H' = 2.199 [95% CI: 2.133-2.276]) and Simpson indices (λ = 0.8619 [95% CI: 0.8496-0.8723]) measured species richness, evenness, and dominance. The values of these indices suggest high species richness, evenness, and dominance. Prevailing conditions can provide suitable environment for establishment of different mosquito species in this ecosystem. Given the sociodemographic characteristics of this area, research on mosquito diversity and risk of vector-borne diseases will be of great use.

Anopheline diversity in urban and peri-urban malaria foci: comparison between alternative traps and seasonal effects in a city in the Western Brazilian Amazon

BACKGROUND

Continuous vector surveillance and sustainable interventions are mandatory in order to prevent anopheline proliferation (or spread to new areas) and interrupt malaria transmission. Anopheline abundance and richness were evaluated in urban and peri-urban malaria foci at a medium-sized city in the Brazilian Amazon, comparing the protected human landing catch technique (PHLC) and alternative sampling methods over different seasonal periods. Additional information was assessed for female feeding behaviour and faunal composition.

METHODS

Anophelines were sampled bimonthly in four urban and peri-urban sites in the city of Porto Velho, state of Rondônia, Brazil. The average number of captured mosquitoes was compared between an PHLC (gold standard), a tent trap (Gazetrap), and a barrier screen by means of generalized linear mixed models (GLMM), which also included season and environment (peri-urban/urban) as predictors.

RESULTS

Overall, 2962 Anopheles individuals belonging to 12 species and one complex were caught; Anopheles darlingi represented 86% of the individuals. More mosquitoes were captured in the peri-urban setting, and the urban setting was more diverse. The model estimates that significantly more anophelines were collected by PHLC than by the Screen method, and Gazetrap captured fewer individuals. However, the Screen technique yielded more blood-engorged females. The peak hours of biting activity were from 6 to 7 p.m. in urban areas and from 7 to 8 p.m. in peri-urban areas.

CONCLUSIONS

Although peri-urban settings presented a greater abundance of anophelines, Shannon and Simpson diversities were higher in urban sites. Each technique proved to be useful, depending on the purpose: PHLC was more effective in capturing the highest anopheline densities, Gazetrap caught the greatest number of species, and the barrier screen technique captured more engorged individuals. There was no seasonal effect on Anopheles assemblage structure; however, a more diverse fauna was caught in the transitional season. Biting activity was more intense from 6 to 8 p.m., with a predominance of An. darlingi.

Reaching the malaria elimination goal in Brazil: a spatial analysis and time-series study

Background

Since 2015, the Global Technical Strategy (GTS) for Malaria 2016–2030 has been adopted by the World Health Organization (WHO) as a comprehensive framework to accelerate progress for malaria elimination in endemic countries. This strategy sets the target of reducing global malaria incidence and mortality rates by 90% in 2030. Here it is sought to evaluate Brazil’s achievements towards reaching the WHO GTS milestone in 2030. Considering the total number of new malaria cases in 2015, the main research question is: will Brazil reach the malaria elimination goal in 2030?

Methods

Analytical strategies were undertaken using the SIVEP-malaria official databases of the Brazilian Malaria Control Programme for the Brazilian Amazon region from 2009 to 2020. Spatial and time-series analyses were applied for identifying municipalities that support the highest numbers of malaria cases over the years. Forecast analysis was used for predicting the estimated number of new cases in Brazil in 2025–2050.

Results

Brazil has significantly reduced the number of new malaria cases in 2020 in comparison with 2015 in the states of Acre (− 56%), Amapá (− 75%), and Amazonas (− 21%); however, they increased in the states of Pará (156%), Rondônia (74%), and Roraima (362%). Forecast of the predicted number of new malaria cases in 2030 is 74,764 (95% CI: 41,116–141,160) in the Brazilian Amazon.

Conclusions

It is likely that Brazil will reduce the number of new malaria cases in the Brazilian Amazon in 2030 in relation to that in 2015. Herein forecast shows a reduction by 46% (74,754 in 2030 forecast/137,982 in 2015), but this reduction is yet far from the proposed reduction under the WHO GTS 2030 milestone (90%). Stable and unbeatable transmission in the Juruá River Valley, Manaus, and Lábrea still support endemic malaria in the Brazilian Amazon. Today’s cross-border malaria is impacting the state of Roraima unprecedently. If this situation is maintained, the malaria elimination goal (zero cases) may not be reached before 2050. An enhanced political commitment is vital to ensure optimal public health intervention designs in the post-2030 milestones for malaria elimination.

Graphical Abstract

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s40249-022-00945-5.

Biodiversity and public health interface

Abstract Alongside modernity, the human activity has been a key factor in global environmental risks, with worldwide anthropic modification being the cause of the emergence of diseases for wild and livestock animals, and even humans. In special, the increase in the spatial distribution and in the incidence of some emerging infectious diseases (EID) are directly associated to deforestation and global climate changes. Moreover, the arise of new EID agents, such as the SARS-COV-2 have been reported for the last 30 years. On the other hand, biodiversity has been shown to be a key indicator for ecosystem health, and to pose a role to increase the promotion of human public health. In neotropical regions, and in special, in Brazil, several infectious diseases have been demonstrated to be directly affected for the biodiversity loss, such as malaria, hantavirus pulmonary syndrome, yellow fever, urban arboviruses, spotted fever, amongst other. To better understand the ecosystem capacity of regulation of infectious diseases, FAPESP BIOTA program have supported researchers and research projects to increase knowledge about Brazilian biodiversity and the ecosystems, such as diversity of bird bioagents, venomous animals biodiversity, diversity of mosquitos species in forest patches inside urban areas, propagation of the yellow fever virus over fragmented forest territories, loss of ecological corridors and occurrence of spotted fever and malaria, amongst others. It is noteworthy that FAPESP BIOTA is a successful program and must be expanded as an important tool for present and future public health promotion.

The Impact of Deforestation, Urbanization, and Changing Land Use Patterns on the Ecology of Mosquito and Tick-Borne Diseases in Central America

Central America is a unique geographical region that connects North and South America, enclosed by the Caribbean Sea to the East, and the Pacific Ocean to the West. This region, encompassing Belize, Costa Rica, Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, Panama, and Nicaragua, is highly vulnerable to the emergence or resurgence of mosquito-borne and tick-borne diseases due to a combination of key ecological and socioeconomic determinants acting together, often in a synergistic fashion. Of particular interest are the effects of land use changes, such as deforestation-driven urbanization and forest degradation, on the incidence and prevalence of these diseases, which are not well understood. In recent years, parts of Central America have experienced social and economic improvements; however, the region still faces major challenges in developing effective strategies and significant investments in public health infrastructure to prevent and control these diseases. In this article, we review the current knowledge and potential impacts of deforestation, urbanization, and other land use changes on mosquito-borne and tick-borne disease transmission in Central America and how these anthropogenic drivers could affect the risk for disease emergence and resurgence in the region. These issues are addressed in the context of other interconnected environmental and social challenges.

Causal effects on low Apgar at 5-min and stillbirth in a malaria maternal-fetal health outcome investigation: a large perinatal surveillance study in the Brazilian Amazon

BACKGROUND

Malaria elimination in Brazil poses several challenges, including the control of Plasmodium falciparum foci and the hidden burden of Plasmodium vivax in pregnancy. Maternal malaria and fetal health outcomes were investigated with a perinatal surveillance study in the municipality of Cruzeiro do Sul, Acre state, Brazilian Amazon. The research questions are: what are the causal effects of low birth weight on low Apgar at 5-min and of perinatal anaemia on stillbirth?

METHODS

From November 2018 to October 2019, pregnant women of ≥ 22 weeks or puerperal mothers, who delivered at the referral maternity hospital (Juruá Women and Children's Hospital), were recruited to participate in a malaria surveillance study. Clinical information was obtained from a questionnaire and abstracted from medical reports. Haemoglobin level and presence of malarial parasites were tested by haematology counter and light microscopy, respectively. Low Apgar at 5-min and stillbirth were the outcomes analysed in function of clinical data and epidemiologic risk factors for maternal malaria infection using both a model of additive and independent effects and a causal model with control of confounders and use of mediation.

RESULTS

In total, 202 (7.2%; N = 2807) women had malaria during pregnancy. Nearly half of malaria infections during pregnancy (n = 94) were P. falciparum. A total of 27 women (1.03%; N = 2632) had perinatal malaria (19 P. vivax and 8 P. falciparum). Perinatal anaemia was demonstrated in 1144 women (41.2%; N = 2779) and low birth weight occurred in 212 newborns (3.1%; N = 2807). A total of 75 newborns (2.7%; N = 2807) had low (< 7) Apgar scores at 5-min., and stillbirth occurred in 23 instances (30.7%; n = 75). Low birth weight resulted in 7.1 higher odds of low Apgar at 5-min (OR = 7.05, 95% CI 3.86-12.88, p < 0.001) modulated by living in rural conditions, malaria during pregnancy, perinatal malaria, and perinatal anaemia. Stillbirth was associated with perinatal anaemia (OR = 2.56, 95% CI 1.02-6.42, p = 0.0444) modulated by living in rural conditions, falciparum malaria during pregnancy, perinatal malaria, and perinatal fever.

CONCLUSIONS

While Brazil continues its path towards malaria elimination, the population still faces major structural problems, including substandard living conditions. Here malaria infections on pregnant women were observed having indirect effects on fetal outcomes, contributing to low Apgar at 5-min and stillbirth. Finally, the utility of employing multiple statistical analysis methods to validate consistent trends is vital to ensure optimal public health intervention designs.

Malaria transmission in landscapes with varying deforestation levels and timelines in the Amazon: a longitudinal spatiotemporal study

The relationship between deforestation and malaria is a spatiotemporal process of variation in Plasmodium incidence in human-dominated Amazonian rural environments. The present study aimed to assess the underlying mechanisms of malarial exposure risk at a fine scale in 5-km2 sites across the Brazilian Amazon, using field-collected data with a longitudinal spatiotemporally structured approach. Anopheline mosquitoes were sampled from 80 sites to investigate the Plasmodium infection rate in mosquito communities and to estimate the malaria exposure risk in rural landscapes. The remaining amount of forest cover (accumulated deforestation) and the deforestation timeline were estimated in each site to represent the main parameters of both the frontier malaria hypothesis and an alternate scenario, the deforestation-malaria hypothesis, proposed herein. The maximum frequency of pathogenic sites occurred at the intermediate forest cover level (50% of accumulated deforestation) at two temporal deforestation peaks, e.g., 10 and 35 years after the beginning of the organization of a settlement. The incidence density of infected anophelines in sites where the original forest cover decreased by more than 50% in the first 25 years of settlement development was at least twice as high as the incidence density calculated for the other sites studied (adjusted incidence density ratio = 2.25; 95% CI, 1.38-3.68; p = 0.001). The results of this study support the frontier malaria as a unifying hypothesis for explaining malaria emergence and for designing specific control interventions in the Brazilian Amazon.