Prediction of 28-day mortality in critically ill patients with COVID-19: Development and internal validation of a clinical prediction model

Transforaminal Steroid Injection After Dorsal Root Ganglion Pulsed Radiofrequency (DRG-PRF): Impact on Pain Intensity and Disability

INTRODUCTION

Dorsal root ganglion pulsed radiofrequency (DRG-PRF) is frequently used for the treatment of chronic lumbar radicular pain with good outcomes in terms of pain management. Transforaminal epidural steroid injection (TFESI) is often administered immediately after DRG-PRF to increase the anti-inflammatory effects, but support for the synergic mechanism is lacking in the literature. The aim of this study was to investigate the potential role of TFESI immediately after DRG-PRF and its possible role on pain intensity and patient disability.

METHODS

A database of patients who underwent DRG-PRF with or without TFESI immediately after DRG-PRF was retrospectively analysed; propensity score matching was applied to the analysis to reduce possible bias. Pain intensity (numerical rating scale [NRS]) and Oswestry disability index (ODI) were recorded pre-operatively and at the 1- and 3-month follow-up in the two groups of patients.

RESULTS

A total of 252 patients were included in this retrospective analysis, 126 patients in the DRG-PRF + TFESI group and 126 patients in the DRG-PRF group after propensity score matching. Both groups displayed a significant reduction in pain intensity (NRS score reduction; p < 0.0001) and improvement in the ODI (p < 0.0001) from baseline at the 3-month follow-up. Interestingly, the use of TFESI after DRG-PRF was not associated with any clinical benefit as no difference in NRS and ODI was found between the two groups at the 1- and 3-month follow-ups.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study revealed a significant pain reduction and disability improvement after DRG-PRF in patients with lumbar radicular pain. Interestingly, no positive role of TFESI immediately after DRG-PRF was observed. These findings suggest that DRG-PRF provides substantial pain relief, and no added benefit is obtained with subsequent steroid injection. Future prospective studies with expanded follow-up periods are needed to confirm these findings.

Progressive changes in pulmonary gas exchange during invasive respiratory support for COVID-19 associated acute respiratory failure: A retrospective study of the association with 90-day mortality

BACKGROUND

Ratio of arterial pressure of oxygen and fraction of inspired oxygen (P/F ratio) together with the fractional dead space (Vd/Vt) provides a global assessment of pulmonary gas exchange. The aim of this study was to assess the potential value of these variables to prognosticate 90-day survival in patients with COVID-19 associated ARDS admitted to the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) for invasive ventilatory support.

METHODS

In this single-center observational, retrospective study, P/F ratios and Vd/Vt were assessed up to 4 weeks after ICU-admission. Measurements from the first 2 weeks were used to evaluate the predictive value of P/F ratio and Vd/Vt for 90-day mortality and reported by the adjusted hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence intervals [95%CI] by Cox proportional hazard regression.

RESULTS

Almost 20,000 blood gases in 130 patients were analyzed. The overall 90-day mortality was 30% and using the data from the first ICU week, the HR was 0.85 [0.77-0.94] for every 10 mmHg increase in P/F ratio and 1.61 [1.20-2.16] for every 0.1 increase in Vd/Vt. In the second week, the HR for 90-day mortality was 0.82 [0.75-0.89] for every 10 mmHg increase in P/F ratio and 1.97 [1.42-2.73] for every 0.1 increase in Vd/Vt.

CONCLUSION

The progressive changes in P/F ratio and Vd/Vt in the first 2 weeks of invasive ventilatory support for COVID-19 ARDS were significant predictors for 90-day mortality.

Back to the future: the novel art of digital auscultation applied in a prospective observational study of critically ill Covid-19 patients

BACKGROUND

The Covid-19 pandemic has caused immense pressure on Intensive Care Units (ICU). In patients with severe ARDS due to Covid-19, respiratory mechanics are important for determining the severity of lung damage. Lung auscultation could not be used during the pandemic despite its merit. The main objective of this study was to investigate associations between lung auscultatory sound features and lung mechanical properties, length of stay (LOS) and survival, in adults with severe Covid-19 ARDS.

METHODS

Consecutive patients admitted to a large ICU between 2020 and 2021 (n = 173) were included. Digital stethoscopes obtained auscultatory sounds and stored them in an on-line database for replay and further processing using advanced AI techniques. Correlation and regression analysis explored relationships between digital auscultation findings and lung mechanics or the ICU outcome. The resulting annotated lung sounds database is also publicly available as supplementary material.

RESULTS

The presence of squawks was associated with the ICU LOS, outcome and 90-day mortality. Other features (age, SOFA score & oxygenation index upon admission, minimum crackle entropy) had significant impact on outcome. Additional features affecting the 90-d survival were age and mean crackle entropy. Multivariate logistic regression showed that survival was affected by age, baseline SOFA, baseline oxygenation index and minimum crackle entropy.

CONCLUSIONS

Respiratory mechanics were associated with various adventitious sounds, whereas the lung sound analytics and the presence of certain adventitious sounds correlated with the ICU outcome and the 90-d survival. Spectral features of crackles sounds can serve as prognostic factors for survival, highlighting the importance of digital auscultation.

Mortality risk in patients with obesity and COVID-19 infection: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Obesity is a risk factor for severe respiratory diseases, including COVID-19 infection. Meta-analyses on mortality risk were inconsistent. We systematically searched 3 databases (Medline, Embase, CINAHL) and assessed the quality of studies using the Newcastle-Ottawa tool (CRD42020220140). We included 199 studies from US and Europe, with a mean age of participants 41.8-78.2 years, and a variable prevalence of metabolic co-morbidities of 20-80 %. Exceptionally, one third of the studies had a low prevalence of obesity of <20 %. Compared to patients with normal weight, those with obesity had a 34 % relative increase in the odds of mortality (p-value 0.002), with a dose-dependent relationship. Subgroup analyses showed an interaction with the country income. There was a high heterogeneity in the results, explained by clinical and methodologic variability across studies. We identified one trial only comparing mortality rate in vaccinated compared to unvaccinated patients with obesity; there was a trend for a lower mortality in the former group. Mortality risk in COVID-19 infection increases in parallel to an increase in BMI. BMI should be included in the predictive models and stratification scores used when considering mortality as an outcome in patients with COVID-19 infections. Furthermore, patients with obesity might need to be prioritized for COVID-19 vaccination.

Acute Kidney Injury in the Context of COVID-19: An Analysis in Hospitalized Mexican Patients

During the COVID-19 pandemic, a considerable proportion of patients developed a severe condition that included respiratory failure, shock, or multiple organ dysfunction. Acute Kidney Injury (AKI) has been recognized as a possible cause of severe COVID-19 development. Given this, this study investigates the occurrence and consequences of AKI in Mexican patients to contribute to better knowledge and management of this problem. Methods: Using a retrospective observational cohort methodology, we investigated 313 cases from a cohort of 1019 patients diagnosed with COVID-19 at the IMSS Zacatecas General Hospital of Zone No. 1 in 2020. The prevalence of AKI was determined using the AKIN criteria based on serum creatinine levels and a detailed review of demographic characteristics, medical history, comorbidities, and clinical development. Results: The data showed a 25.30% prevalence of AKI among patients infected with severe COVID-19. Remarkably, these patients with AKI exhibited an advanced age (>65 years), arterial hypertension, a higher number of white blood cells during admission and the hospital stay, and elevated levels of C-reactive protein, serum creatinine, and blood urea nitrogen (BUN). Clinically, patients with AKI had signs of prostration, pneumonia, and the requirement for ventilatory assistance when compared to those without AKI. Finally, those diagnosed with AKI and COVID-19 had a 74% death rate. Relative risk analyses indicated that age (>65 years), arterial hypertension, high creatinine levels, endotracheal intubation, and pneumonia are associated with the development of AKI. On the other hand, among the protective factors against AKI, high hemoglobin levels and the consumption of statins during COVID-19 were found. Conclusions: The findings of this study underscore the significance of promptly identifying and effectively managing AKI to potentially alleviate the negative consequences of this complication within the Mexican population during COVID-19.

A Transcriptomic Severity Classifier IMX-SEV-3b to Predict Mortality in Intensive Care Unit Patients with COVID-19: A Prospective Observational Pilot Study

The prediction of disease outcomes in COVID-19 patients in the ICU is of critical importance, and the examination of host gene expressions is a promising tool. The 29-host mRNA Inflam-matix-Severity-3b (IMX-SEV-3b) classifier has been reported to predict mortality in emergency department COVID-19 patients and surgical ICU patients. The accuracy of the IMX-SEV-3b in predicting mortality in COVID-19 patients admitted to the ICU is yet unknown. Our aim was to investigate the accuracy of the IMX-SEV-3b in predicting the ICU mortality of COVID-19 patients. In addition, we assessed the predictive performance of routinely measured biomarkers and the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score as well. This was a prospective observational study enrolling COVID-19 patients who received mechanical ventilation on the ICU of the Erasmus MC, the Netherlands. The IMX-SEV-3b scores were generated by amplifying 29 host response genes from blood collected in PAXgene® Blood RNA tubes. A severity score was provided, ranging from 0 to 1 for increasing disease severity. The primary outcome was the accuracy of the IMX-SEV-3b in predicting ICU mortality, and we calculated the AUROC of the IMX-SEV-3b score, the biomarkers C-reactive protein (CRP), D-dimer, ferritin, leukocyte count, interleukin-6 (IL-6), lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), procalcitonin (PCT) and the SOFA score. A total of 53 patients were included between 1 March and 30 April 2020, with 47 of them being included within 72 h of their admission to the ICU. Of these, 18 (34%) patients died during their ICU stay, and the IMX-SEV-3b scores were significantly higher in non-survivors compared to survivors (0.65 versus 0.57, p = 0.05). The Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (AUROC) for prediction of ICU mortality by the IMX-SEV-3b was 0.65 (0.48-0.82). The AUROCs of the biomarkers ranged from 0.52 to 0.66, and the SOFA score had an AUROC of 0.81 (0.69-0.93). The AUROC of the pooled biomarkers CRP, D-dimer, ferritin, leukocyte count, IL-6, LDH, NLR and PCT for prediction of ICU mortality was 0.81 (IQR 0.69-0.93). Further validation in a larger interventional trial of a point-of-care version of the IMX-SEV-3b classifier is warranted to determine its value for patient management.

Risk factors associated with mortality among elderly patients with COVID-19: Data from 55 intensive care units in Spain

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES

Critically-ill elderly ICU patients with COVID-19 have poor outcomes. We aimed to compare the rates of in-hospital mortality between non-elderly and elderly critically-ill COVID-19 ventilated patients, as well as to analyze the characteristics, secondary outcomes and independent risk factors associated with in-hospital mortality of elderly ventilated patients.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We conducted a multicentre, observational cohort study including consecutive critically-ill patients admitted to 55 Spanish ICUs due to severe COVID-19 requiring mechanical ventilation (non-invasive respiratory support [NIRS; include non-invasive mechanical ventilation and high-flow nasal cannula] and invasive mechanical ventilation [IMV]) between February 2020 and October 2021.

RESULTS

Out of 5,090 critically-ill ventilated patients, 1,525 (27%) were aged ≥70 years (554 [36%] received NIRS and 971 [64%] received IMV. In the elderly group, median age was 74 years (interquartile range 72-77) and 68% were male. Overall in-hospital mortality was 31% (23% in patients <70 years and 50% in those ≥70 years; p<0.001). In-hospital mortality in the group ≥70 years significantly varied according to the modality of ventilation (40% in NIRS vs. 55% in IMV group; p<0.001). Factors independently associated with in-hospital mortality in elderly ventilated patients were age (sHR 1.07 [95%CI 1.05-1.10], p<0.001); previous admission within the last 30 days (sHR 1.40 [95%CI 1.04-1.89], p = 0.027); chronic heart disease (sHR 1.21 [95%CI 1.01-1.44], p = 0.041); chronic renal failure (sHR 1.43 [95%CI 1.12- 1.82], p = 0.005); platelet count (sHR 0.98 [95% CI 0.98-0.99], p<0.001); IMV at ICU admission (sHR 1.41 [95% CI 1.16- 1.73], p<0.001); and systemic steroids (sHR 0.61 [95%CI 0.48- 0.77], p<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Amongst critically-ill COVID-19 ventilated patients, those aged ≥70 years presented significantly higher rates of in-hospital mortality than younger patients. Increasing age, previous admission within the last 30 days, chronic heart disease, chronic renal failure, platelet count, IMV at ICU admission and systemic steroids (protective) all comprised independent factors for in-hospital mortality in elderly patients.

Assessment of risk scores to predict mortality of COVID-19 patients admitted to the intensive care unit

Objectives

To assess the ABC2-SPH score in predicting COVID-19 in-hospital mortality, during intensive care unit (ICU) admission, and to compare its performance with other scores (SOFA, SAPS-3, NEWS2, 4C Mortality Score, SOARS, CURB-65, modified CHA2DS2-VASc, and a novel severity score).

Materials and methods

Consecutive patients (≥ 18 years) with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 admitted to ICUs of 25 hospitals, located in 17 Brazilian cities, from October 2020 to March 2022, were included. Overall performance of the scores was evaluated using the Brier score. ABC2-SPH was used as the reference score, and comparisons between ABC2-SPH and the other scores were performed by using the Bonferroni method of correction. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality.

Results

ABC2-SPH had an area under the curve of 0.716 (95% CI 0.693-0.738), significantly higher than CURB-65, SOFA, NEWS2, SOARS, and modified CHA2DS2-VASc scores. There was no statistically significant difference between ABC2-SPH and SAPS-3, 4C Mortality Score, and the novel severity score.

Conclusion

ABC2-SPH was superior to other risk scores, but it still did not demonstrate an excellent predictive ability for mortality in critically ill COVID-19 patients. Our results indicate the need to develop a new score, for this subset of patients.

Prognostic models in COVID-19 infection that predict severity: a systematic review

Current evidence on COVID-19 prognostic models is inconsistent and clinical applicability remains controversial. We performed a systematic review to summarize and critically appraise the available studies that have developed, assessed and/or validated prognostic models of COVID-19 predicting health outcomes. We searched six bibliographic databases to identify published articles that investigated univariable and multivariable prognostic models predicting adverse outcomes in adult COVID-19 patients, including intensive care unit (ICU) admission, intubation, high-flow nasal therapy (HFNT), extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) and mortality. We identified and assessed 314 eligible articles from more than 40 countries, with 152 of these studies presenting mortality, 66 progression to severe or critical illness, 35 mortality and ICU admission combined, 17 ICU admission only, while the remaining 44 studies reported prediction models for mechanical ventilation (MV) or a combination of multiple outcomes. The sample size of included studies varied from 11 to 7,704,171 participants, with a mean age ranging from 18 to 93 years. There were 353 prognostic models investigated, with area under the curve (AUC) ranging from 0.44 to 0.99. A great proportion of studies (61.5%, 193 out of 314) performed internal or external validation or replication. In 312 (99.4%) studies, prognostic models were reported to be at high risk of bias due to uncertainties and challenges surrounding methodological rigor, sampling, handling of missing data, failure to deal with overfitting and heterogeneous definitions of COVID-19 and severity outcomes. While several clinical prognostic models for COVID-19 have been described in the literature, they are limited in generalizability and/or applicability due to deficiencies in addressing fundamental statistical and methodological concerns. Future large, multi-centric and well-designed prognostic prospective studies are needed to clarify remaining uncertainties.

Comparison of patients admitted to an inner-city intensive care unit across 3 COVID-19 waves

To expand our limited knowledge of COVID-19-related outcomes in patients admitted to inner-city intensive care unit (ICU across multiple infection waves. This retrospective study compared patients admitted to the ICU in Bronx, NY, during 3 COVID-19 waves (March 2020 to February 2022). Outcomes included in hospital mortality, length of stay (LOS), use of mechanical ventilation, and discharge disposition. The study included 716 patients (343, 276, and 97 in the first, second, and third COVID-19 waves, respectively). The number of days on mechanical ventilation and LOS were lower in the first wave. Of the 345 discharged patients, 37% went home directly, whereas 11% were discharged to a skill nursing facility. More patients went home during the second and third waves. Mortality decreased from the first to the third waves (57%-37%; P < .001). Predictors of mortality included age, male gender, COPD, shock, acute kidney injury (AKI), dialysis requirement, and mechanical ventilation. The decreased mortality and better discharge disposition of these inner-city patients during the second and third waves is encouraging, as this population historically had a high COVID-19-related mortality risk.

Predictors of Mortality Among Children with Confirmed and Suspected Cases of COVID-19 in East Java, Indonesia

Introduction

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) increases rapidly and causes mortality in all groups, including children. However, the predictive risk factors of mortality among children remain inconclusive. This study aimed to analyse the predictors related to mortality among children with COVID-19.

Methods

Secondary data analysis was conducted using provincial COVID-19 data from April 2020 to May 2021. We selected 6441 children under age 18 to be included in this study. Chi-square and binary logistic regression were used to evaluate the predictors of mortality in children with COVID-19.

Results

This study showed that the prevalence of children who died COVID-19 was 2.7%. Age, case definition, treatment status, severity of illness, and travel history had a significant relationship with survival status in children with COVID-19. As the increasing age, the risk of death with COVID-19 will decrease [AOR=0.94; CI 95%=0.91-0.97]. Otherwise, suspected status [AOR=2.12; 95% CI=1.48-3.04], hospitalization with ventilators [AOR=22.25; 95% CI=5.73-86.42], severe illness [AOR=46.76; 95% CI=21.69-100.80], and travel history [AOR=1.78; 95% CI=1.22-2.60] were significantly related with an increased risk of death in children with COVID-19.

Discussion

Severe illness in children was the strongest predictor of mortality. Disease prevention and health promotion programs are the key to preventing hospitalizations in children and decreasing the mortality rate.

Software-Based Assessment of Well-Aerated Lung at CT for Quantification of Predicted Pulmonary Function in Resected NSCLC

Background: To test the agreement between postoperative pulmonary function tests 12 months after surgery (mpo-PFTs) for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and predicted lung function based on the quantification of well-aerated lung (WAL) at staging CT (sCT). Methods: We included patients with NSCLC who underwent lobectomy or segmentectomy without a history of thoracic radiotherapy or chemotherapy treatment with the availability of PFTs at 12 months follow-up. Postoperative predictive (ppo) lung function was calculated using the resected lobe WAL (the lung volume between −950 and −750 HU) at sCT. The Spearman correlation coefficient (rho) and intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) were used to the test the agreement between WAL ppo-PFTs and mpo-PFTs. Results: the study included 40 patients (68 years-old, IQR 62−74 years-old; 26/40, 65% males). The WAL ppo-forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1) and the ppo-diffusing capacity of the lung for carbon monoxide (%DLCO) were significantly correlated with corresponding mpo-PFTs (rho = 0.842 and 0.717 respectively; p < 0.001). The agreement with the corresponding mpo-PFTs of WAL ppo-FEV1 was excellent (ICC 0.904), while it was good (ICC 0.770) for WAL ppo-%DLCO. Conclusions: WAL ppo-FEV1 and WAL ppo-%DLCO at sCT showed, respectively, excellent and good agreement with corresponding mpo-PFTs measured 12 months after surgery for NSCLC. WAL is an easy parameter obtained by staging CT that can be used to estimate post-resection lung function for patients with borderline pulmonary function undergoing lung surgery.

Intestinal Fatty Acid Binding Protein (I-FABP) as a Prognostic Marker in Critically Ill COVID-19 Patients

Gastrointestinal symptoms are common in critically ill COVID-19 patients. There is currently no generally recognized method of assessing gastrointestinal injury in unconscious or sedated intensive care unit (ICU) patients. I-FABP (intestinal fatty acid binding protein) and citrulline have previously been studied as potential biomarkers of enterocyte damage in various gastrointestinal tract diseases, and changes in the levels of these markers may reflect intestinal wall damage in COVID-19. Patients with critical COVID-19, with diagnosed sepsis, or septic shock requiring ICU treatment were included in the study. Blood samples for citrulline and I-FABP were taken daily from day 1 to 5. I-FABP levels were significantly higher in patients who eventually died from COVID-19 than in survivors, and the optimal I-FABP cut-off point for predicting 28-day mortality was 668.57 pg/mL (sensitivity 0.739, specificity 0.765). Plasma levels of I-FABP, but not citrulline, were associated with significantly higher mortality and appeared to be a predictor of poor outcome in multivariate logistic regression analysis. In conclusion, I-FABP seems to be an effective prognostic marker in critically ill COVID-19 patients. Assessing mortality risk based on intestinal markers may be helpful in making clinical decisions regarding the management of intestinal injury, imaging diagnostics, and potential surgical interventions.

Low BALF CD4 T cells count is associated with extubation failure and mortality in critically ill covid-19 pneumonia

BACKGROUND

Critically ill COVID-19 pneumonia is one of the main causes of extubation failure and mortality. Understanding clinical characteristics, laboratory profiles and bronchoalveolar lavage fluid (BALF) immunopathology may help improve outcomes in critically ill COVID-19 pneumonia. We aimed to describe clinical characteristics, laboratory profiles and BALF immunopathology based on lung severity in critically ill COVID-19 pneumonia patients.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Forty critically ill severe pneumonia patients requiring invasive mechanical ventilation in Cipto Mangunkusumo General (National Tertiary Referral Hospital), Indonesia within November 2020-January 2021 were enrolled in this study. Early BALF collection was performed after patients' intubation. Clinical characteristics, laboratory profiles and BALF biomarkers (sTREM-1, alveolar macrophage amount and function, IL-6, IL-17, CD4 T-cells, Tregs, SP-A and Caspase-3) were observed and analysed. Outcomes were measured based on extubation failure (within 19 days) and 28-days mortality. Univariate and bivariate analyses were performed.

RESULTS

Early bronchoscopy was performed in an average of 4 h (SD = 0.82) after patients' intubation. Twenty-three and twenty-two patients had extubation failure (within 19 days) and 28-days mortality, respectively. In the baseline clinical characteristics of critically ill COVID-19 patients, we found no significant differences in the extubation and mortality status groups. In the laboratory profiles of critically ill COVID-19 patients, we found no significant differences in the extubation status groups. In critically ill COVID-19 pneumonia patients, there was a significant high D-dimer levels in survived group (p = .027), a significant low BALF CD4 T-cells count in the right lung (p = .001) and a significant low BALF CD4 T-cells count (p = .010 and p = .018) in severely affected lung with extubation failure and mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

BALF CD4 T-cells count evaluation of severely affected lung is associated with early extubation failure and mortality in critically ill COVID-19 pneumonia patients. KEY MESSAGEFew studies have been conducted during the peak COVID-19 period analysing combined bronchoalveolar lavage fluid (BALF) immunopathology biomarkers within four hours of intubation to assess extubation failure and mortality. In this study, we reported eight BALF immunopathology biomarkers (sTREM-1, alveolar macrophage, IL-6, IL-17, CD4 T-cells, Tregs, SP-A and Caspase-3).We found significantly low BALF CD4 T-cells count in the right lung, and low BALF CD4 T-cells count in severely affected lung of critically ill COVID-19 pneumonia patients in extubation failure and mortality.

Risk factors of early mortality among COVID-19 deceased patients in Addis Ababa COVID-19 care centers, Ethiopia

Background

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 is a global health care problem with high mortality. Despite early mortality seeming alarming, data regarding factors that lead to increased early mortality of COVID 19 patients is not well-documented yet. The objective of this study was to identify the risk factors of early mortality in patients with confirmed COVID-19 infections.

Methodology

A case-control study design was employed. With this, a total of 261 COVID-19 deceased recordings were reviewed. The cases of the study were recordings of patients deceased within three days of intensive care unit admission whereas, the rest 187 were recordings of patients who died after three days of admission. Data were collected using an extraction checklist, entered into Epi data version 4.4.2.2, and analyzed by SPSS version 25. After the description, binary logistic regression was run to conduct bivariate and multivariable analyses. Finally, statistical significance was declared at p-value <0.05, and an adjusted odds ratio with a 95% confidence interval was used to report the strength of association.

Result

The analysis was performed on 261 (87 cases and 174 controls) recordings. About 62.5% of the participants were aged above 65 years and two-thirds were males. The presence of cardiovascular disease (AOR = 4.79, with 95%CI: 1.73, 13.27) and bronchial-asthma (AOR = 6.57; 95% CI: 1.39, 31.13) were found to have a statistically significant association with early mortality. The existence of complications from COVID-19 (AOR = 0.22; 95% CI: 0.07, 0.74) and previous history of COVID-19 infection (AOR = 0.17, 95% CI: 0.04, 0.69) were associated with decreased risk of early mortality.

Conclusions

Having cardiovascular diseases and bronchial asthma was associated with an increased risk of early mortality. Conversely, the presence of intensive care unit complications and previous history of COVID-19 infection were associated with decreased risk of early mortality.

A Brief Analysis of a New Device to Prevent Early Intubation in Hypoxemic Patients: An Observational Study

The need for mechanical ventilation is one of the main concerns related to the care of patients with COVID-19. The aim of this study is to evaluate the efficacy of a bubble device for oxygen supplementation. This device was implemented for the selected patients hospitalized with severe COVID-19 pneumonia with persistent low oxygen saturation. Patients were selected in three major COVID-19 hospitals of Bahia state in Brazil from July to November 2020, where they remained with the device for seven days and were monitored for different factors, such as vital signs, oximetry evaluation, and arterial blood gasometry. Among the 51 patients included in the study, 68.63% successfully overcame hypoxemia without the necessity to be transferred to mechanical ventilation, whereas 31.37% required tracheal intubation (p value < 0.05). There was no difference of note on the analysis of the clinical data, chemistry, and hematological evaluation, with the exception of the SpO2 on follow-up days. Multivariate analysis revealed that the independent variable, male sex, SpO2, and non-inhaled mask, was associated with the necessity of requiring early mechanical ventilation. We concluded that this bubble device should be a prior step to be utilized before indication of mechanical ventilation in patients with persistent hypoxemia of severe COVID-19 pneumonia.

Predictors for adult COVID-19 hospitalized inpatient mortality rate in North West Ethiopia

Objectives:

The spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 in Ethiopia is below par understood and to date has been poorly characterized by a lower number of confirmed cases and deaths to other regions of the sub-Sahara African including Ethiopia. Timely and effective predictors for inpatient mortality rate were crucial for improving the management of hospitalized cases. This study aimed to assessed predictors for inpatient mortality of COVID-19 hospitalized adult patients in two diagnosed and treatment centers, North West Ethiopia.

Methods:

A facility-based retrospective cohort study was conducted among COVID-19 adult admitted cases in two treatment centers, Northwest Ethiopia, from 1 October 2020 to 30 December 2020. Data from the records of children were extracted using a standardized checklist. Epi-Data version 3.2 was used for data entry, and Stata version 14 was used for analysis. Bi-variable and multivariable Cox regression analyses were conducted to identify predictors of mortality. Finally, variables with P < 0.05 were a significant predictor of inpatient mortality.

Result:

The mean (±standard deviation) age of participant cases was 48.6 (±18.8) years. The median (±interquartile range) time for death reported after was 13 (±6) days. The overall incidence rate inpatient mortality rate was determined as 1.8 (95% confidence interval: 1.72, 2.15) per100 person per days of observation. Cases at baseline age ⩾ 61 years (adjusted hazard ratio = 1.56; 95% confidence interval: 1.3, 2.4), being male gender (adjusted hazard ratio = 1.9; 95% CI: 2.1, 8.6), admission with comorbidity (adjusted hazard ratio: 4.4, 95% confidence interval: 2.3, 8.4), and decreased neutrophil count ⩽ 65 10³/uL at (P < 0.03) were independent predictors for inpatient mortality.

Conclusion:

In general, 72.4% of COVID-19 inpatient deaths were occurred within 2 weeks after admission. The mortality risk factors for severe patients identified in this study using a multivariate Cox regression model included elderly age (⩾60 years), being male, baseline comorbidity, and neutrophil count ⩽65 10³/uL were associated with inpatient mortality.

Development and Validation of the Acute PNeumonia Early Assessment Score for Safely Discharging Low-Risk SARS-CoV-2-Infected Patients from the Emergency Department

A continuous demand for assistance and an overcrowded emergency department (ED) require early and safe discharge of low-risk severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)-infected patients. We developed (n = 128) and validated (n = 330) the acute PNeumonia early assessment (aPNea) score in a tertiary hospital and preliminarily tested the score on an external secondary hospital (n = 97). The score's performance was compared to that of the National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2). The composite outcome of either death or oral intubation within 30 days from admission occurred in 101 and 28 patients in the two hospitals, respectively. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve of the aPNea model was 0.86 (95% confidence interval (CI), 0.78-0.93) and 0.79 (95% CI, 0.73-0.89) for the development and validation cohorts, respectively. The aPNea score discriminated low-risk patients better than NEWS2 at a 10% outcome probability, corresponding to five cut-off points and one cut-off point, respectively. aPNea's cut-off reduced the number of unnecessary hospitalizations without missing outcomes by 27% (95% CI, 9-41) in the validation cohort. NEWS2 was not significant. In the external cohort, aPNea's cut-off had 93% sensitivity (95% CI, 83-102) and a 94% negative predictive value (95% CI, 87-102). In conclusion, the aPNea score appears to be appropriate for discharging low-risk SARS-CoV-2-infected patients from the ED.

The modified NUTRIC score (mNUTRIC) is associated with increased 28-day mortality in critically ill COVID-19 patients: internal validation of a prediction model

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

The effect of age on ventilation management and clinical outcomes in critically ill COVID-19 patients--insights from the PRoVENT-COVID study

Introduction: We analyzed the association of age with ventilation practice and outcomes in critically ill COVID–19 patients requiring invasive ventilation.

Methods: Posthoc analysis of the PRoVENT–COVID study, an observational study performed in 22 ICUs in the first 3 months of the national outbreak in the Netherlands. The coprimary endpoint was a set of ventilator parameters, including tidal volume normalized for predicted bodyweight, positive end–expiratory pressure, driving pressure, and respiratory system compliance in the first 4 days of invasive ventilation. Secondary endpoints were other ventilation parameters, the use of rescue therapies, pulmonary and extrapulmonary complications in the first 28 days in the ICU, hospital– and ICU stay, and mortality.

Results: 1122 patients were divided into four groups based on age quartiles. No meaningful differences were found in ventilation parameters and in the use of rescue therapies for refractory hypoxemia in the first 4 days of invasive ventilation. Older patients received more often a tracheostomy, developed more frequently acute kidney injury and myocardial infarction, stayed longer in hospital and ICU, and had a higher mortality.

Conclusions: In this cohort of invasively ventilated critically ill COVID–19 patients, age had no effect on ventilator management. Higher age was associated with more complications, longer length of stay in ICU and hospital and a higher mortality.

Early procalcitonin to predict mortality in critically ill COVID-19 patients: a multicentric cohort study

BACKGROUND

High levels of procalcitonin (PCT) have been associated with a higher risk of mortality in COVID-19 patients. We explored the prognostic role of early PCT assessment in critically ill COVID-19 patients and whether PCT predictive performance would be influenced by immunosuppression.

METHODS

Retrospective multicentric analysis of prospective collected data in COVID-19 patients consecutively admitted to 36 intensive care units (ICUs) in Spain and Andorra from March to June 2020. Adult (>18 years) patients with confirmed COVID-19 and available PCT values (<72 hours from ICU admission) were included. Patients were considered as "No Immunosuppression" (NI), "Chronic Immunosuppression" (CI) and "Acute Immunosuppression" (AIT if only tocilizumab; AIS if only steroids, AITS if both). The primary outcome was the ability of PCT to predict ICU mortality.

RESULTS

Of the 1079 eligible patients, 777 patients were included in the analysis. Mortality occurred in 227 (28%) patients. In the NI group 144 (19%) patients were included, 67 (9%) in the CI group, 66 (8%) in the AIT group, 262 (34%) in the AIS group and 238 (31%) in the AITS group; PCT was significantly higher in non-survivors when compared with survivors (0.64 [0.17-1.44] vs. 0.23 [0.11-0.60] ng/mL; p<0.01); however, in the multivariable analysis, PCT values was not independently associated with ICU mortality. PCT values and ICU mortality were significantly higher in patients in the NI and CI groups.

CONCLUSIONS

PCT values are not independent predictors of ICU mortality in COVID-19 patients. Acute immunosuppression significantly reduced PCT values, although not influencing its predictive value.

Use of rotational thromboelastometry to predict the outcome of COVID-19 patients: A retrospective observational study

Background and Aims:

Material and Methods:

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Mortality Prediction of COVID-19 Patients at Intensive Care Unit Admission

Background

Coronavirus-2019 (COVID-19) patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) have mortality rates between 30%-50%. Identifying patient factors associated with mortality can help identify critical patients early and treat them accordingly.

Patients and methods

In this retrospective study, the records of patients admitted to the COVID-19 ICU in a single tertiary care hospital from April 2020 to September 2020 were analysed. The clinical and laboratory parameters between patients who were discharged from the hospital (survival cohort) and those who died in the hospital (mortality cohort) were compared. A multivariate logistic regression model was constructed to identify parameters associated with mortality. 

Results

A total of 147 patients were included in the study. The age of the patients was 55 (45, 64), median (IQR), years. At admission, 23 (16%) patients were on mechanical ventilation and 73 (50%) were on non-invasive ventilation. Sixty patients (40%, 95% CI: 32.8 to 49.2%) had died. Patients who died had a higher Charlson comorbidity index (CCI): 3 (2, 4) vs. 2 (1, 3), p = 0.0019, and a higher admission sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score: 5 (4, 7) vs. 4 (3, 4), p < 0.001. Serum urea, serum creatinine, neutrophils on differential leukocyte count, neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (N/L ratio), D-dimer, serum lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), and C-reactive protein were higher in the mortality cohort. The ratio of partial pressure of arterial oxygen to fraction of inspired oxygen, platelet count, lymphocytes on differential leukocyte count, and absolute lymphocyte count was lower in the mortality cohort. The parameters and cut-off values used for the multivariate logistic regression model included CCI > 2, SOFA score > 4, D-dimer > 1346 ng/mL, LDH > 514 U/L and N/L ratio > 27. The final model had an area under the curve of 0.876 (95% CI: 0.812 to 0.925), p < 0.001 with an accuracy of 78%. All five parameters were found to be independently associated with mortality. 

Conclusions

CCI, SOFA score, D-dimer, LDH, and N/L ratio are independently associated with mortality. A model incorporating the combination of these clinical and laboratory parameters at admission can predict COVID-19 ICU mortality with good accuracy.

The Association between Nutritional Status and In-Hospital Mortality of COVID-19 in Critically-Ill Patients in the ICU

BACKGROUND

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has become one of the leading causes of death worldwide. The impact of poor nutritional status on increased mortality and prolonged ICU (intensive care unit) stay in critically ill patients is well-documented. This study aims to assess how nutritional status and BMI (body mass index) affected in-hospital mortality in critically ill COVID-19 patients Methods: We conducted a retrospective study and analysed medical records of 286 COVID-19 patients admitted to the intensive care unit of the University Clinical Hospital in Wroclaw (Poland).

RESULTS

A total of 286 patients were analysed. In the sample group, 8% of patients who died had a BMI within the normal range, 46% were overweight, and 46% were obese. There was a statistically significantly higher death rate in men (73%) and those with BMIs between 25.0-29.9 (p = 0.011). Nonsurvivors had a statistically significantly higher HF (Heart Failure) rate (p = 0.037) and HT (hypertension) rate (p < 0.001). Furthermore, nonsurvivors were statistically significantly older (p < 0.001). The risk of death was higher in overweight patients (HR = 2.13; p = 0.038). Mortality was influenced by higher scores in parameters such as age (HR = 1.03; p = 0.001), NRS2002 (nutritional risk score, HR = 1.18; p = 0.019), PCT (procalcitonin, HR = 1.10; p < 0.001) and potassium level (HR = 1.40; p = 0.023).

CONCLUSIONS

Being overweight in critically ill COVID-19 patients requiring invasive mechanical ventilation increases their risk of death significantly. Additional factors indicating a higher risk of death include the patient's age, high PCT, potassium levels, and NRS ≥ 3 measured at the time of admission to the ICU.