Elevated C-reactive protein in early COVID-19 predicts worse survival among hospitalized geriatric patients

Anti-inflammatory therapy with nebulized dornase alfa for severe COVID-19 pneumonia: a randomized unblinded trial

Background

Prinflammatory extracellular chromatin from neutrophil extracellular traps (NETs) and other cellular sources is found in COVID-19 patients and may promote pathology. We determined whether pulmonary administration of the endonuclease dornase alfa reduced systemic inflammation by clearing extracellular chromatin.

Methods

Eligible patients were randomized (3:1) to the best available care including dexamethasone (R-BAC) or to BAC with twice-daily nebulized dornase alfa (R-BAC + DA) for seven days or until discharge. A 2:1 ratio of matched contemporary controls (CC-BAC) provided additional comparators. The primary endpoint was the improvement in C-reactive protein (CRP) over time, analyzed using a repeated-measures mixed model, adjusted for baseline factors.

Results

We recruited 39 evaluable participants: 30 randomized to dornase alfa (R-BAC +DA), 9 randomized to BAC (R-BAC), and included 60 CC-BAC participants. Dornase alfa was well tolerated and reduced CRP by 33% compared to the combined BAC groups (T-BAC). Least squares (LS) mean post-dexamethasone CRP fell from 101.9 mg/L to 23.23 mg/L in R-BAC +DA participants versus a 99.5 mg/L to 34.82 mg/L reduction in the T-BAC group at 7 days; p=0.01. The anti-inflammatory effect of dornase alfa was further confirmed with subgroup and sensitivity analyses on randomised participants only, mitigating potential biases associated with the use of CC-BAC participants. Dornase alfa increased live discharge rates by 63% (HR 1.63, 95% CI 1.01-2.61, p=0.03), increased lymphocyte counts (LS mean: 1.08 vs 0.87, p=0.02) and reduced circulating cf-DNA and the coagulopathy marker D-dimer (LS mean: 570.78 vs 1656.96 μg/mL, p=0.004).

Conclusions

Dornase alfa reduces pathogenic inflammation in COVID-19 pneumonia, demonstrating the benefit of cost-effective therapies that target extracellular chromatin.

Funding

LifeArc, Breathing Matters, The Francis Crick Institute (CRUK, Medical Research Council, Wellcome Trust).

Clinical trial number

NCT04359654.

Association of Coagulopathy and Inflammatory Biomarkers with Severity in SARS-CoV-2-Infected Individuals of the Al-Qunfudhah Region of Saudi Arabia

BACKGROUND

Identifying prognosticators/predictors of COVID-19 severity is the principal focus for early prediction and effective management of the disease in a time-bound and cost-effective manner. We aimed to evaluate COVID-19 severity-dependent alteration in inflammatory and coagulopathy biomarkers.

METHODS

A hospital-dependent retrospective observational study (total: n = 377; male, n = 213; and female, n = 164 participants) was undertaken. COVID-19 exposure was assessed by performing real-time PCR on nasopharyngeal (NP) swabs. Descriptive and inferential statistics were applied for both continuous and categorical variables using Rstudio-version-4.0.2. Pearson correlation and regression were executed with a cut-off of p < 0.05 for evaluating significance. Data representation by R-packages and ggplot2.

RESULTS

A significant variation in the mean ± SD (highly-sever (HS)/moderately severe (MS)) of CRP (HS/MS: 102.4 ± 22.9/21.3 ± 6.9, p-value < 0.001), D-dimer (HS/MS: 661.1 ± 80.6/348.7 ± 42.9, p-value < 0.001), and ferritin (HS/MS: 875.8 ± 126.8/593.4 ± 67.3, p-value < 0.001) were observed. Thrombocytopenia, high PT, and PTT exhibited an association with the HS individuals (p < 0.001). CRP was correlated with neutrophil (r = 0.77), ferritin (r = 0.74), and WBC (r = 0.8). D-dimer correlated with platelets (r = -0.82), PT (r = 0.22), and PTT (r = 0.37). The adjusted odds ratios (Ad-OR) of CRP, ferritin, D-dimer, platelet, PT, and PTT for HS compared to MS were 1.30 (95% CI -1.137, 1.50; p < 0.001), 1.048 (95% CI -1.03, 1.066; p < 0.001), 1.3 (95% CI -1.24, 1.49, p > 0.05), -0.813 (95% CI -0.734, 0.899, p < 0.001), 1.347 (95% CI -1.15, 1.57, p < 0.001), and 1.234 (95% CI -1.16, 1.314, p < 0.001), respectively.

CONCLUSION

SARS-CoV-2 caused alterations in vital laboratory parameters and raised ferritin, CRP, and D-dimer presented an association with disease severity at a significant level.

The effect of limited healthcare access on poor outcomes among hospitalized COVID-19 patients in Honduras: A single center cohort study

Background

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a severe impact on the Latin American subcontinent, particularly in areas with limited hospital resources and a restricted Intensive Care Unit (ICU) capacity. This study aimed to provide a comprehensive description of the clinical characteristics, outcomes, and factors associated with survival of COVID-19 hospitalized patients in Honduras.

Research question

What were the characteristics and outcomes of COVID-19 patients in a large referral center in Honduras?

Study design and methods

This study employed a retrospective cohort design conducted in a single center in San Pedro Sula, Honduras, between October 2020 to March 2021. All hospitalized cases of confirmed COVID-19 during this timeframe were included in the analysis. Univariable and multivariable survival analysis were performed using Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox proportional hazards model aiming to identify factors associated with decreased 30 day in-hospital survival, using a priori-selected factors.

Results

A total of 929 confirmed cases were identified in this cohort, with males accounting for 55.4 % of cases. The case fatality rate among the hospitalized patients was found to be 50.1 % corresponding to 466 deaths. Patients with comorbidities such as hypertension, diabetes, obesity, chronic kidney disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and cardiovascular disease had a higher likelihood of mortality. Additionally, non-survivors had a significantly longer time from illness onset to hospital admission compared to survivors (8.2 days vs 4.7 days). Among the cohort, 306 patients (32.9 %) met criteria for ICU admission. However, due to limited capacity, only 60 patients (19·6 %) were admitted to the ICU. Importantly, patients that were unable to receive level-appropriate care had lower likelihood of survival compared to those who received level-appropriate care (hazard ratio: 1.84).

Interpretation

This study represents, the largest investigation of in-hospital COVID-19 cases in Honduras and Central America. The findings highlight a substantial case fatality rate among hospitalized patients. In this study, patients who couldn't receive level-appropriate care (ICU admission) had a significantly lower likelihood of survival when compared to those who did. These results underscore the significant impact of healthcare access during the pandemic, particularly in low- and middle-income countries.

Comparative analysis of CRP as a biomarker of the inflammatory response intensity among common viral infections affecting the lungs: COVID-19 versus influenza A, influenza B and respiratory syncytial virus

Severe acute respiratory syndrome-corona virus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is associated with significant morbidity and mortality. C-reactive protein (CRP) is a useful inflammatory biomarker for patients admitted with an infection. This study aimed to compare CRP level as an indicator of inflammation severity between SARS-CoV-2 and common respiratory viral infections. A cross-sectional study of all adult patients hospitalized in the internal medicine department, geriatric department, or internal intensive care unit between 02/2012 and 06/2021 with laboratory-confirmed respiratory viral infection was performed. SARS-CoV-2, influenza A, influenza B, and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) were studied. Patients with laboratory-confirmed concurrent viral or bacterial infections were excluded. Patients with malignancy were also excluded. Age, gender, comorbidities, and CRP level upon admission were compared between groups. Univariate and multivariable analyses were applied. Among 1124 patients, 18.2% had SARS‑CoV‑2, 48.3% influenza A, 18.9% RSV, and 14.6% influenza B. SARS‑CoV‑2 patients were significantly younger (median 69.4 vs. ≥ 76 years) and had lower Charlson score (median 3 vs. ≥ 4 in other groups) compared to patients with other viral pathogens. After adjustment for patients' age, gender and comorbidities, SARS‑CoV‑2 patients had a higher probability (OR = 1.84-2.02, p < 0.01) of having CRP values in the upper quartile (> 117 mg/L) compared to all other viral pathogens while between all others there was no significant difference. To conclude, a higher CRP level upon admission is approximately twice more common among SARS-CoV-2 patients compared to other widespread respiratory viruses which may demonstrate the higher intensity of inflammation caused by SARS-CoV-2.

Association of C-reactive protein with mortality in Covid-19 patients: a secondary analysis of a cohort study

Our study aimed to explore the association between serum C-reactive protein (CRP) and COVID-19 mortality. This is a retrospective cohort study of all patients admitted to 4 hospitals within the Montefiore Health System between March 1 and April 16, 2020, with SARS-CoV-2 infection. All-cause mortality were collected in 7 May 2020. The mortality risk was estimated using Cox proportional hazards models. Of the 3545 patients with a median age of 63.7 years, 918 (25.9%) died within the time of cohort data collection after admission. When the CRP was < 15.6 mg/L, the mortality rate increased with an adjusted HR of 1.57 (95% CI 1.30-1.91, P < 0.0001) for every 10 mg/L increment in the CRP. When the CRP was ≥ 15.6 mg/L, the mortality rate increased with an adjusted HR of 1.11 (95% CI 0.99-1.24, P = 0.0819) for every 10 mg/L increment in the CRP. For patients with COVID-19, the association between the CRP and the mortality risk was curve and had a saturation effect. When the CRP was small, the mortality rate increased significantly with the increase of CRP. When CRP > 15.6 mg/L, with the increase of CRP, the mortality rate increases relatively flat.

Anti-inflammatory effects of dexamethasone in COVID-19 patients: Translational population PK/PD modeling and simulation

Dexamethasone (DEX) given at a dose of 6 mg once-daily for 10 days is a recommended dosing regimen in patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) requiring oxygen therapy. We developed a population pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic (PopPK/PD) model of DEX anti-inflammatory effects in COVID-19 and provide simulations comparing the expected efficacy of four dosing regimens of DEX. Nonlinear mixed-effects modeling and simulations were performed using Monolix Suite version 2021R1 (Lixoft, France). Published data for DEX PK in patients with COVID-19 exhibited moderate variability with a clearance of about half that in healthy adults. No accumulation of the drug was expected even with daily oral doses of 12 mg. Indirect effect models of DEX inhibition of TNFα, IL-6, and CRP plasma concentrations were enacted and simulations performed for DEX given at 1.5, 3, 6, and 12 mg daily for 10 days. The numbers of individuals that achieved specified reductions in inflammatory biomarkers were compared among the treatment groups. The simulations indicate the need for 6 or 12 mg daily doses of DEX for 10 days for simultaneous reductions in TNFα, IL-6, and CRP. Possibly beneficial is DEX given at a dose of 12 mg compared to 6 mg. The PopPK/PD model may be useful in the assessment of other anti-inflammatory compounds as well as drug combinations in the treatment of cytokine storms.

Elevated High Sensitivity Cardiac Troponin T is Nonlinearly Associated with Poor Prognosis in Aging COVID-19 Patients: A Retrospective Study

Objective

To evaluate the relationship between high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T (hs-cTnT) and prognosis in elderly patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).

Methods

This study recruited 1399 COVID-19 patients aged 65 years or older admitted to Taizhou Hospital or Enze Hospital in Zhejiang Province from December 15, 2022, to January 4, 2023. The Cox regression model was used to evaluate the relationship between hs-cTnT level and in-hospital death. The logistic regression model was used to evaluate the relationship between hs-cTnT level and major adverse events. The restricted cubic spline (RCS) model is used for nonlinear analysis.

Results

The increase of peak hs-cTnT was associated with the increased risk of death (HR 9.49; 95% CI 1.19-75.48; trend p = 0.012) and major adverse events (OR 20.59; 95% CI 10.41-40.71; trend p < 0.001). RCS model showed the association between peak hs-cTnT and death and major adverse events were nonlinear (P for non-line < 0.001). Starting from the limit of quantification of hs-cTnT (3ng/L), the risk of death and major adverse events had a steep S-shaped increase until hs-cTnT reached the 90th percentile point (hs-cTnT = 131 ng/L), followed by a plateau period. Peak hs-cTnT has good predictive value for death and major adverse events, with AUC of 0.834 and 0.804, respectively.

Conclusion

Peak hs-cTnT has high predictive value for the risk of in-hospital death and major adverse events in elderly patients with COVID-19. The association between peak hs-cTnT and death and major adverse events were nonlinear.

Prevalence of early bacterial co-infection in hospitalized patients with COVID-19 pneumonia: a retrospective study

BACKGROUND

Identification of bacterial co-infection is crucial in determining outcomes of patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pneumonia. The present study aims to evaluate the prevalence and associated factors of early bacterial co-infection in patients with COVID-19 pneumonia.

METHODS

The present study is a retrospective study. Patients with COVID-19 pneumonia, who were admitted to Siriraj Hospital between April 1 and August 31, 2021, were randomly enrolled and classified as the "Early bacterial co-infection" group, defined by an infection occurring within the first 48 hours after admission, and the "Unlikely early bacterial co-infection" group.

RESULTS

A total of 245 patients were enrolled. The prevalence of early bacterial co-infection was 15.5%. Chest X-rays showed characteristic findings for COVID-19 pneumonia in 37.6%. The median Brixia chest X-ray scores and C-reactive protein levels were significantly higher in the Early bacterial co-infection group. The most common causative pathogens included Staphylococcus aureus, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, and Stenotrophomonas maltophilia. Patients with early bacterial co-infection had a significantly higher all-cause mortality compared to the Unlikely early bacterial co-infection group (P=0.012). The Charlson Comorbidity Index ≥4, high level of respiratory support, and mass-liked or diffuse opacities on chest X-rays were independent factors associated with the early bacterial co-infection.

CONCLUSIONS

The prevalence of early bacterial co-infection in patients with COVID-19 pneumonia was low but it was associated with mortality. There is insufficient evidence to support the empirical use of antibiotics in these patients. A further prospective study is required to confirm the results of the present study.

Initial functional disability as a 1-year prognostic factor in geriatric patients hospitalized with SARS-CoV-2 infection

BACKGROUND

SARS-CoV2 infection has affected many older people and has required us to adapt our practices to this new pathology. Initial functional capacity is already considered an important prognostic marker in older patients particularly during infections.

AIM

The objective of this longitudinal study was to determine whether baseline functional disability was associated with mortality risk after 1 year in older patients hospitalized for COVID-19.

METHODS

All COVID-19 patients admitted to the geriatric acute care unit of Angers University Hospital, France, between March-June 2020 received a group iso-ressource (GIR) assessment upon admission. Disability was defined as a GIR score≤3. All-cause mortality was collected after 1 year of follow-up. Covariables were age, sex, history of malignancies, hypertension, cardiomyopathy, number of acute diseases at baseline, and use of antibiotics or respiratory treatments during COVID-19 acute phase.

RESULTS

In total, 97 participants (mean±SD 88.0+5.4 years; 49.5% women; 46.4% GIR score≤3) were included. 24 of the 36 patients who did not survive 1 year had a GIR score ≤ 3 (66.7%; P = 0.003). GIR score≤3 was directly associated with 1-year mortality (fully adjusted HR = 2.27 95% CI: 1.07-4.89). Those with GIR≤3 at baseline had shorter survival time than the others (log-rank P = 0.0029).

CONCLUSIONS

Initial functional disability was associated with poorer survival in hospitalized frail elderly COVID-19 patients.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT04560608 registered on September 23, 2022.

Integrative Plasma Metabolic and Lipidomic Modelling of SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Relation to Clinical Severity and Early Mortality Prediction

An integrative multi-modal metabolic phenotyping model was developed to assess the systemic plasma sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 (rRT-PCR positive) induced COVID-19 disease in patients with different respiratory severity levels. Plasma samples from 306 unvaccinated COVID-19 patients were collected in 2020 and classified into four levels of severity ranging from mild symptoms to severe ventilated cases. These samples were investigated using a combination of quantitative Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (NMR) spectroscopy and Mass Spectrometry (MS) platforms to give broad lipoprotein, lipidomic and amino acid, tryptophan-kynurenine pathway, and biogenic amine pathway coverage. All platforms revealed highly significant differences in metabolite patterns between patients and controls (n = 89) that had been collected prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. The total number of significant metabolites increased with severity with 344 out of the 1034 quantitative variables being common to all severity classes. Metabolic signatures showed a continuum of changes across the respiratory severity levels with the most significant and extensive changes being in the most severely affected patients. Even mildly affected respiratory patients showed multiple highly significant abnormal biochemical signatures reflecting serious metabolic deficiencies of the type observed in Post-acute COVID-19 syndrome patients. The most severe respiratory patients had a high mortality (56.1%) and we found that we could predict mortality in this patient sub-group with high accuracy in some cases up to 61 days prior to death, based on a separate metabolic model, which highlighted a different set of metabolites to those defining the basic disease. Specifically, hexosylceramides (HCER 16:0, HCER 20:0, HCER 24:1, HCER 26:0, HCER 26:1) were markedly elevated in the non-surviving patient group (Cliff's delta 0.91-0.95) and two phosphoethanolamines (PE.O 18:0/18:1, Cliff's delta = -0.98 and PE.P 16:0/18:1, Cliff's delta = -0.93) were markedly lower in the non-survivors. These results indicate that patient morbidity to mortality trajectories is determined relatively soon after infection, opening the opportunity to select more intensive therapeutic interventions to these "high risk" patients in the early disease stages.

Phase II, Double-Blinded, Randomized, Placebo-Controlled Clinical Trial Investigating the Efficacy of Mebendazole in the Management of Symptomatic COVID-19 Patients

The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic has spread throughout the world, affecting almost all nations and territories. The current double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled, phase II clinical trial sought to evaluate the clinical efficacy and safety of mebendazole as an adjuvant therapy for outpatients with COVID-19. The patients were recruited and divided into two groups: a Mebendazole-treated group and placebo group. The mebendazole and placebo groups were matched for age, sex, and complete blood count (CBC) with differential and liver and kidney function tests at baseline. On the third day, the C-reactive protein (CRP) levels were lower (2.03 ± 1.45 vs. 5.45 ± 3.95, p < 0.001) and the cycle threshold (CT) levels were higher (27.21 ± 3.81 vs. 24.40 ± 3.09, p = 0.046) significantly in the mebendazole group than in the placebo group on the third day. Furthermore, CRP decreased and CT dramatically increased on day three compared to the baseline day in the mebendazole group (p < 0.001 and p = 0.008, respectively). There was a significant inverse correlation between lymphocytes and CT levels in the mebendazole group (r = -0.491, p = 0.039) but not in the placebo group (r = 0.051, p = 0.888). Mebendazole therapy increased innate immunity and returned inflammation to normal levels in COVID-19 outpatients faster than it did in the placebo group in this clinical trial. Our findings add to the growing body of research on the clinical and microbiological benefits of repurposing antiparasitic therapy, specifically mebendazole, for SARS-CoV-2 infection and other viral infections.

Modeling mortality risk in patients with severe COVID-19 from Mexico

Background

Severe acute respiratory syndrome caused by a coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) is responsible for the COVID-19 disease pandemic that began in Wuhan, China, in December 2019. Since then, nearly seven million deaths have occurred worldwide due to COVID-19. Mexicans are especially vulnerable to the COVID-19 pandemic as Mexico has nearly the worst observed case-fatality ratio (4.5%). As Mexican Latinos represent a vulnerable population, this study aimed to determine significant predictors of mortality in Mexicans with COVID-19 who were admitted to a large acute care hospital.

Methods

In this observational, cross-sectional study, 247 adult patients participated. These patients were consecutively admitted to a third-level referral center in Yucatan, Mexico, from March 1st, 2020, to August 31st, 2020, with COVID-19-related symptoms. Lasso logistic and binary logistic regression were used to identify clinical predictors of death.

Results

After a hospital stay of about eight days, 146 (60%) patients were discharged; however, 40% died by the twelfth day (on average) after hospital admission. Out of 22 possible predictors, five crucial predictors of death were found, ranked by the most to least important: (1) needing to be placed on a mechanical ventilator, (2) reduced platelet concentration at admission, (3) increased derived neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio, (4) increased age, and (5) reduced pulse oximetry saturation at admission. The model revealed that these five variables shared ~83% variance in outcome.

Conclusion

Of the 247 Mexican Latinos patients admitted with COVID-19, 40% died 12  days after admission. The patients' need for mechanical ventilation (due to severe illness) was the most important predictor of mortality, as it increased the odds of death by nearly 200-fold.

Clinical factors associated with adverse clinical outcomes in elderly versus non-elderly COVID-19 emergency patients: a multi-center observational study

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused over 6 million deaths worldwide. The elderly accounted for a large proportion of patients with their mortality rate largely higher than the non-elderly. However, limited studies have explored clinical factors associated with poor clinical outcomes in this important population. Therefore, this study aimed to determine factors independently associated with adverse clinical outcomes among COVID-19 elderly patients.

METHODS

We conducted a multicenter observational study at five emergency departments (EDs) in Thailand. Patients over 18 years old diagnosed with COVID-19 between January and December 2021 were included. We classified patients into elderly (age ≥ 65 years) and non-elderly (age < 65 years). The primary clinical outcome was in-hospital mortality. The secondary outcomes were endotracheal intubation and intensive care unit admission. We identified independent factors associating with these outcomes both in the whole population and separately by age group using multivariate logistic regression models.

RESULTS

A total of 978 patients were included, 519 (53.1%) were elderly and 459 (46.9%) were non-elderly, and 254 (26%) died at hospital discharge. The mortality rate was significantly higher in the elderly group (39.1% versus 14.3%, p<0.001)). In the elderly, age (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 1.13; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.1-1.2; p<0.001), male sex (aOR 3.64; 95%CI 1.5-8.8; p=0.004), do-not-resuscitate (DNR) status (aOR 12.46; 95%CI 3.8-40.7; p<0.001), diastolic blood pressure (aOR 0.96; 95%CI 0.9-1.0; p=0.002), body temperature (aOR 1.74; 95%CI 1.0-2.9; p=0.036), and Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score (aOR 0.71; 95%CI 0.5-1.0; p=0.026) were independent baseline and physiologic factors associated with in-hospital mortality. Only DNR status and GCS score were associated with in-hospital mortality in both the elderly and non-elderly, as well as the overall population. Lower total bilirubin was independently associated with in-hospital mortality in the elderly (aOR 0.34; 95%CI 0.1-0.9; p=0.035), while a higher level was associated with the outcome in the non-elderly. C-reactive protein (CRP) was the only laboratory factor independently associated with all three study outcomes in the elderly (aOR for in-hospital mortality 1.01; 95%CI 1.0-1.0; p=0.006).

CONCLUSION

Important clinical factors associated with in-hospital mortality in elderly COVID-19 patients were age, sex, DNR status, diastolic blood pressure, body temperature, GCS score, total bilirubin, and CRP. These parameters may aid in triage and ED disposition decision-making in this very important patient population during times of limited resources during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The Impact of Antibiotic Use on Mortality in Patients Hospitalized in a COVID-19 Centre from Romania: A Retrospective Study

Background and Objectives: Considering the significant number of patients worldwide that received empirical antibiotic therapy for COVID-19 infection due to their critical condition and the lack of therapeutical guidelines, we wanted to find out the consequences of antibiotic use in our study population. Materials and Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study including symptomatic patients older than 18 years, hospitalized for SARS-CoV-2 between March and December 2020 in the Internal Medicine and Pneumology Departments of Colentina Clinical Hospital. The elected outcome was death, while independent variables were antibiotic therapy and literature-cited parameters associated with mortality in this disease. Results: Out of 198 included patients, 96 (48.48%) patients received antibiotic therapy during hospitalization. Female gender (OR = 2.61, p = 0.04), history of neoplasm (OR = 7.147, p = 0.01), heart failure (OR = 8.62, p = 0.002), and diabetes mellitus (OR = 3.05, p = 0.02) were significantly associated with death in multivariate analysis. Antibiotic treatment showed a higher probability of death both in bivariate (OR = 5.333, p < 0.001) and multivariate analysis adjusted for the aforementioned prognostic factors (OR = 3.55, p = 0.01). Conclusions: After adjusting for confounders, in-hospital antibiotic administration did not improve survival in COVID-19 patients.

Development and validation of self-monitoring auto-updating prognostic models of survival for hospitalized COVID-19 patients

Clinical prognostic models can assist patient care decisions. However, their performance can drift over time and location, necessitating model monitoring and updating. Despite rapid and significant changes during the pandemic, prognostic models for COVID-19 patients do not currently account for these drifts. We develop a framework for continuously monitoring and updating prognostic models and apply it to predict 28-day survival in COVID-19 patients. We use demographic, laboratory, and clinical data from electronic health records of 34912 hospitalized COVID-19 patients from March 2020 until May 2022 and compare three modeling methods. Model calibration performance drift is immediately detected with minor fluctuations in discrimination. The overall calibration on the prospective validation cohort is significantly improved when comparing the dynamically updated models against their static counterparts. Our findings suggest that, using this framework, models remain accurate and well-calibrated across various waves, variants, race and sex and yield positive net-benefits.

Age-Dependent Biomarkers for Prediction of In-Hospital Mortality in COVID-19 Patients

Background: Several biomarkers and models have been proposed to predict in-hospital mortality among COVID-19 patients. However, these studies have not examined the association in sub-populations. The present study aimed to identify the association between the two most common inflammatory biomarkers in the emergency department and in-hospital mortality in subgroups of patients. Methods: A historical cohort study of adult patients who were admitted to acute-care hospital between March and December 2020 and had a diagnosis of COVID-19 infection. Data on age, sex, Charlson comorbidity index, white blood cell (WBC) count, C-reactive protein (CRP), and in-hospital mortality were collected. Discrimination ability of each biomarker was observed and the CHAID method was used to identify the association in subgroups of patients. Results: Overall, 762 patients (median age 70.9 years, 59.7% males) were included in the study. Of them, 25.1% died during hospitalization. In-hospital mortality was associated with higher CRP (median 138 mg/L vs. 85 mg/L, p < 0.001), higher WBC count (median 8.5 vs. 6.6 K/µL, p < 0.001), and higher neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) (median 9.2 vs. 5.4, p < 0.001). The area under the ROC curve was similar among all biomarkers (WBC 0.643, NLR 0.677, CRP 0.646, p > 0.1 for all comparisons). The CHAID method revealed that WBC count was associated with in-hospital mortality in patients aged 43.1−66.0 years (<11 K/µL: 10.1% vs. 11+ K/µL: 27.9%), NLR in patients aged 66.1−80 years (≤8: 15.7%, >8: 43.3%), and CRP in patients aged 80.1+ years (≤47 mg/L: 18.8%, 47.1−149 mg/L: 43.1%, and 149.1+: 71.7% mortality). Conclusions: WBC, NLR, and CRP present similar discrimination abilities. However, each biomarker should be considered as a predictor for in-hospital mortality in different age groups.

Seven COVID-19 Patients Treated with C-Reactive Protein (CRP) Apheresis

Background: The fulminant course of COVID-19, triggered by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), presents with a high mortality rate and still lacks a causative treatment. C-reactive protein (CRP) has been shown to increase dramatically during the disease progression and correlates with deleterious outcomes. Selective CRP apheresis can reduce circulating CRP levels fast and effective. Methods: Seven hospitalized patients with documented severe COVID-19 progression, elevated CRP plasma levels (>100 mg/L) and signs of respiratory failure were treated with CRP apheresis. Two to twelve CRP apheresis sessions were performed generally in 24 h time intervals and depending on CRP plasma levels. Results: All patients had comorbidities. CRP apheresis reduced CRP plasma levels by up to 84% within a few hours, without exhibiting side effects in any patient. Despite signs of severe lung infiltration in all patients, only one patient died. The other patients showed improvements within the chest X-ray after CRP apheresis and were able to recover regardless of intubation and/or ECMO (4 patients). All remaining six patients were discharged from the hospital in good clinical condition. Conclusions: This case series presents a mortality rate of only 14%, which is dramatically lower than expected from the presented CRP levels as well as comorbidities and ventilation requirements. Our clinical observations regarding the here presented seven patients support the hypothesis that CRP is a candidate to be therapeutically targeted in the early stage of severe COVID-19.

The Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) Pandemic: Are Africa's Prevalence and Mortality Rates Relatively Low?

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2), the cause of coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19), has been rapidly spreading since December 2019, and within a few months, it turned out to be a global pandemic. The disease affects primarily the lungs, but its pathogenesis spreads to other organs as well. However, its mortality rates vary, and in the majority of infected people, there are no serious consequences. Many factors including advanced age, preexisting health conditions, and genetic predispositions are believed to exacerbate outcomes of COVID-19. The virus contains several structural proteins including the spike (S) protein with subunits for binding, fusion, and internalization into host cells following interaction with host cell receptors and proteases (ACE2 and TMPRSS2, respectively) to cause the subsequent pathology. Although the pandemic has spread into all countries, most of Africa is thought of as having relatively less prevalence and mortality. Several hypotheses have been forwarded as reasons for this and include warmer weather conditions, vaccination with BCG (i.e., trained immunity), and previous malaria infection. From genetics or metabolic points of view, it has been proposed that most African populations could be protected to some degree because they lack some genetic susceptibility risk factors or have low-level expression of allelic variants, such as ACE2 and TMPRSS2 that are thought to be involved in increased infection risk or disease severity. The frequency of occurrence of α-1 antitrypsin (an inhibitor of a tissue-degrading protease, thereby protecting target host tissues including the lung) deficiency is also reported to be low in most African populations. More recently, infections in Africa appear to be on the rise. In general, there are few studies on the epidemiology and pathogenesis of the disease in African contexts, and the overall costs and human life losses due to the pandemic in Africa will be determined by all factors and conditions interacting in complex ways.