Geometric Constraints Dominate the Antigenic Evolution of Influenza H3N2 Hemagglutinin

The antigenic landscape of human influenza N2 neuraminidases from 2009 until 2017

Human H3N2 influenza viruses are subject to rapid antigenic evolution which translates into frequent updates of the composition of seasonal influenza vaccines. Despite these updates, the effectiveness of influenza vaccines against H3N2-associated disease is suboptimal. Seasonal influenza vaccines primarily induce hemagglutinin-specific antibody responses. However, antibodies directed against influenza neuraminidase (NA) also contribute to protection. Here, we analysed the antigenic diversity of a panel of N2 NAs derived from human H3N2 viruses that circulated between 2009 and 2017. The antigenic breadth of these NAs was determined based on the NA inhibition (NAI) of a broad panel of ferret and mouse immune sera that were raised by infection and recombinant N2 NA immunisation. This assessment allowed us to distinguish at least four antigenic groups in the N2 NAs derived from human H3N2 viruses that circulated between 2009 and 2017. Computational analysis further revealed that the amino acid residues in N2 NA that have a major impact on susceptibility to NAI by immune sera are in proximity of the catalytic site. Finally, a machine learning method was developed that allowed to accurately predict the impact of mutations that are present in our N2 NA panel on NAI. These findings have important implications for the renewed interest to develop improved influenza vaccines based on the inclusion of a protective NA antigen formulation.

The 2009 Pandemic H1N1 Hemagglutinin Stalk Remained Antigenically Stable after Circulating in Humans for a Decade

An H1N1 influenza virus caused a pandemic in 2009, and descendants of this virus continue to circulate seasonally in humans. Upon infection with the 2009 H1N1 pandemic strain (pH1N1), many humans produced antibodies against epitopes in the hemagglutinin (HA) stalk. HA stalk-focused antibody responses were common among pH1N1-infected individuals because HA stalk epitopes were conserved between the pH1N1 strain and previously circulating H1N1 strains. Here, we completed a series of experiments to determine if the pH1N1 HA stalk has acquired substitutions since 2009 that prevent the binding of human antibodies. We identified several amino acid substitutions that accrued in the pH1N1 HA stalk from 2009 to 2019. We completed enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays, absorption-based binding assays, and surface plasmon resonance experiments to determine if these substitutions affect antibody binding. Using sera collected from 230 humans (aged 21 to 80 years), we found that pH1N1 HA stalk substitutions that have emerged since 2009 do not affect antibody binding. Our data suggest that the HA stalk domain of pH1N1 viruses remained antigenically stable after circulating in humans for a decade. IMPORTANCE In 2009, a new pandemic H1N1 (pH1N1) virus began circulating in humans. Many individuals mounted hemagglutinin (HA) stalk-focused antibody responses upon infection with the 2009 pH1N1 strain, since the HA stalk of this virus was relatively conserved with other seasonal H1N1 strains. Here, we completed a series of studies to determine if the 2009 pH1N1 strain has undergone antigenic drift in the HA stalk domain over the past decade. We found that serum antibodies from 230 humans could not antigenically distinguish the 2009 and 2019 HA stalk. These data suggest that the HA stalk of pH1N1 has remained antigenically stable, despite the presence of high levels of HA stalk antibodies within the human population.

Influenza immune escape under heterogeneous host immune histories

In a pattern called immune imprinting, individuals gain the strongest immune protection against the influenza strains encountered earliest in life. In many recent examples, differences in early infection history can explain birth year-associated differences in susceptibility (cohort effects). Susceptibility shapes strain fitness, but without a clear conceptual model linking host susceptibility to the identity and order of past infections general conclusions on the evolutionary and epidemic implications of cohort effects are not possible. Failure to differentiate between cohort effects caused by differences in the set, rather than the order (path), of past infections is a current source of confusion. We review and refine hypotheses for path-dependent cohort effects, which include imprinting. We highlight strategies to measure their underlying causes and emergent consequences.

Implications of localized charge for human influenza A H1N1 hemagglutinin evolution: Insights from deep mutational scans

Seasonal influenza A viruses of humans evolve rapidly due to strong selection pressures from host immune responses, principally on the hemagglutinin (HA) viral surface protein. Based on mouse transmission experiments, a proposed mechanism for immune evasion consists of increased avidity to host cellular receptors, mediated by electrostatic charge interactions with negatively charged cell surfaces. In support of this, the HA charge of the globally circulating H3N2 has increased over time since its pandemic. However, the same trend was not seen in H1N1 HA sequences. This is counter-intuitive, since immune escape due to increased avidity (due itself to an increase in charge) was determined experimentally. Here, we explore whether patterns of local charge of H1N1 HA can explain this discrepancy and thus further associate electrostatic charge with immune escape and viral evolutionary dynamics. Measures of site-wise functional selection and expected charge computed from deep mutational scan data on an early H1N1 HA yield a striking division of residues into three groups, separated by charge. We then explored evolutionary dynamics of these groups from 1918 to 2008. In particular, one group increases in net charge over time and consists of sites that are evolving the fastest, that are closest to the receptor binding site (RBS), and that are exposed to solvent (i.e., on the surface). By contrast, another group decreases in net charge and consists of sites that are further away from the RBS and evolving slower, but also exposed to solvent. The last group consists of those sites in the HA core, with no change in net charge and that evolve very slowly. Thus, there is a group of residues that follows the same trend as seen for the entire H3N2 HA. It is possible that the H1N1 HA is under other biophysical constraints that result in compensatory decreases in charge elsewhere on the protein. Our results implicate localized charge in HA interactions with host cells, and highlight how deep mutational scan data can inform evolutionary hypotheses.

The hemagglutinin (HA) surface protein of influenza A viruses evolves rapidly to evade host immunity, leading to sizable yearly epidemics in human populations. Previous transmission experiments with H1N1 in mice have tied immune escape to an increase in HA avidity for cellular receptors, mediated by electrostatic charge. Furthermore, retrospective sequence analyses from a previous study confirmed that the HA of circulating global H3N2 has increased in net charge, yet surprisingly, that of H1N1 has not varied significantly. How is a stable net charge related to local patterns of H1N1 HA charge in response to selection? To elucidate the role of local electrostatic charge in host-virus interactions, we investigate characteristics of local charge on the H1N1 HA using functional data from deep mutational scan experiments. Combining measures of functional selection and expected charge at each site on DMS data from a 1933 H1N1 HA yields a striking visual pattern that identifies three groups of sites that have different biophysical properties and that prove to have distinct evolutionary patterns in natural human sequences. Essentially, we find evidence for an increase in charge near the receptor binding site and for compensatory changes elsewhere on the protein. Thus, our findings may reconcile disparate results from transmission experiments and natural sequence analyses, and highlight the importance of local properties of the HA protein. Overall, our findings further support the hypothesis of immune escape due to increased HA avidity to cellular receptors mediated by electrostatic charge. More generally, our work illustrates a novel method of leveraging deep mutational scans in conjunction with natural sequences to shed light on virus-host interactions.

Comparison of gE/gI- and TK/gE/gI-Gene-Deleted Pseudorabies Virus Vaccines Mediated by CRISPR/Cas9 and Cre/Lox Systems

Pseudorabies (PR), caused by pseudorabies virus (PRV), is an acute and febrile infectious disease in swine. To eradicate PR, a more efficacious vaccine needs to be developed. Here, the gE/gI- and TK/gE/gI-gene-deleted recombinant PRV (rGXΔgE/gI and rGXΔTK/gE/gI) are constructed through CRISPR/Cas9 and Cre/Lox systems. We found that the rGXΔTK/gE/gI was safer than rGXΔgE/gI in mice. Additionally, the effects of rGXΔgE/gI and rGXΔTK/gE/gI were further evaluated in swine. The rGXΔgE/gI and rGXΔTK/gE/gI significantly increased numbers of IFN-γ-producing CD4+ and CD8+ T-cells in swine, whereas there was no difference between rGXΔgE/gI and rGXΔTK/gE/gI. Moreover, rGXΔgE/gI and rGXΔTK/gE/gI promoted a PRV-specific humoral immune response. The PRV-specific humoral immune response induced by rGXΔgE/gI was consistent with that caused by rGXΔTK/gE/gI. After the challenge, swine vaccinated with rGXΔgE/gI and rGXΔTK/gE/gI showed no clinical signs and viral shedding. However, histopathological detection revealed that rGXΔgE/gI, not rGXΔTK/gE/gI, caused pathological lesions in brain and lung tissues. In summary, these results demonstrate that the TK/gE/gI-gene-deleted recombinant PRV was safer compared with rGXΔgE/gI in swine. The data imply that the TK/gE/gI-gene-deleted recombinant PRV may be a more efficacious vaccine candidate for the prevention of PR.

Evolution and rapid spread of a reassortant A(H3N2) virus that predominated the 2017-2018 influenza season

The 2017-2018 North American influenza season caused more hospitalizations and deaths than any year since the 2009 H1N1 pandemic. The majority of recorded influenza infections were caused by A(H3N2) viruses, with most of the virus's North American diversity falling into the A2 clade. Within A2, we observe a subclade which we call A2/re that rose to comprise almost 70 per cent of A(H3N2) viruses circulating in North America by early 2018. Unlike most fast-growing clades, however, A2/re contains no amino acid substitutions in the hemagglutinin (HA) segment. Moreover, hemagglutination inhibition assays did not suggest substantial antigenic differences between A2/re viruses and viruses sampled during the 2016-2017 season. Rather, we observe that the A2/re clade was the result of a reassortment event that occurred in late 2016 or early 2017 and involved the combination of the HA and PB1 segments of an A2 virus with neuraminidase (NA) and other segments a virus from the clade A1b. The success of this clade shows the need for antigenic analysis that targets NA in addition to HA. Our results illustrate the potential for non-HA drivers of viral success and necessitate the need for more thorough tracking of full viral genomes to better understand the dynamics of influenza epidemics.

Highly Efficient Base Editing in Viral Genome Based on Bacterial Artificial Chromosome Using a Cas9-Cytidine Deaminase Fused Protein

Viruses evolve rapidly and continuously threaten animal health and economy, posing a great demand for rapid and efficient genome editing technologies to study virulence mechanism and develop effective vaccine. We present a highly efficient viral genome manipulation method using CRISPR-guided cytidine deaminase. We cloned pseudorabies virus genome into bacterial artificial chromosome, and used CRISPR-guided cytidine deaminase to directly convert cytidine (C) to uridine (U) to induce premature stop mutagenesis in viral genes. The editing efficiencies were 100%. Comprehensive bioinformatic analysis revealed that a large number of editable sites exist in pseudorabies virus (PRV) genomes. Notably, in our study viral genome exists as a plasmid in E. coli, suggesting that this method is virus species-independent. This application of base-editing provided an alternative approach to generate mutant virus and might accelerate study on virulence and vaccine development.

Structures and functions linked to genome-wide adaptation of human influenza A viruses

Human influenza A viruses elicit short-term respiratory infections with considerable mortality and morbidity. While H3N2 viruses circulate for more than 50 years, the recent introduction of pH1N1 viruses presents an excellent opportunity for a comparative analysis of the genome-wide evolutionary forces acting on both subtypes. Here, we inferred patches of sites relevant for adaptation, i.e. being under positive selection, on eleven viral protein structures, from all available data since 1968 and correlated these with known functional properties. Overall, pH1N1 have more patches than H3N2 viruses, especially in the viral polymerase complex, while antigenic evolution is more apparent for H3N2 viruses. In both subtypes, NS1 has the highest patch and patch site frequency, indicating that NS1-mediated viral attenuation of host inflammatory responses is a continuously intensifying process, elevated even in the longtime-circulating subtype H3N2. We confirmed the resistance-causing effects of two pH1N1 changes against oseltamivir in NA activity assays, demonstrating the value of the resource for discovering functionally relevant changes. Our results represent an atlas of protein regions and sites with links to host adaptation, antiviral drug resistance and immune evasion for both subtypes for further study.

Evolution of Viral Genomes: Interplay Between Selection, Recombination, and Other Forces

Natural selection is a fundamental force shaping organismal evolution, as it both maintains function and enables adaptation and innovation. Viruses, with their typically short and largely coding genomes, experience strong and diverse selective forces, sometimes acting on timescales that can be directly measured. These selection pressures emerge from an antagonistic interplay between rapidly changing fitness requirements (immune and antiviral responses from hosts, transmission between hosts, or colonization of new host species) and functional imperatives (the ability to infect hosts or host cells and replicate within hosts). Indeed, computational methods to quantify these evolutionary forces using molecular sequence data were initially, dating back to the 1980s, applied to the study of viral pathogens. This preference largely emerged because the strong selective forces are easiest to detect in viruses, and, of course, viruses have clear biomedical relevance. Recent commoditization of affordable high-throughput sequencing has made it possible to generate truly massive genomic data sets, on which powerful and accurate methods can yield a very detailed depiction of when, where, and (sometimes) how viral pathogens respond to various selective forces.Here, we present recent statistical developments and state-of-the-art methods to identify and characterize these selection pressures from protein-coding sequence alignments and phylogenies. Methods described here can reveal critical information about various evolutionary regimes, including whole-gene selection, lineage-specific selection, and site-specific selection acting upon viral genomes, while accounting for confounding biological processes, such as recombination and variation in mutation rates.

phylotree.js - a JavaScript library for application development and interactive data visualization in phylogenetics

BACKGROUND

While several JavaScript packages for visualizing phylogenetic trees exist, most are best characterized as frameworks that are designed with a specific set of tasks in mind. Extending such packages to use cases that are not available as features often ends up being difficult. Moreover, existing packages tend to produce standalone widgets that are not designed to serve as middleware, as opposed to flexible tools that can integrate with other components of an application.

RESULTS

phylotree.js is a library that extends the popular data visualization framework d3.js, and is suitable for building JavaScript applications where users can view and interact with phylogenetic trees. The effects of such interactions can be captured and communicated to other package components, making it possible to engineer complex and responsive applications that include phylogenetic trees. phylotree.js implements several abstractions in addition to features, and comes with a documented application programming interface, thus promoting interoperability and extensibility. Example applications include a tool to visualize and annotate phylogenetic trees, a web application for comparative sequence analysis, a structural viewer that interacts with a large phylogenetic tree, and an interactive tanglegram.

CONCLUSIONS

phylotree.js is a useful tool and application module for a variety of computational biology software applications. The code is available on Github and is released under the MIT license.

The influenza virus hemagglutinin head evolves faster than the stalk domain

The limited ability of current influenza virus vaccines to protect from antigenically drifted or shifted viruses creates a public health problem that has led to the need to develop effective, broadly protective vaccines. While current influenza virus vaccines mostly induce an immune response against the immunodominant and variable head domain of the hemagglutinin, the major surface glycoprotein of the virus, the hemagglutinin stalk domain has been identified to harbor neutralizing B-cell epitopes that are conserved among and even between influenza A virus subtypes. A complete understanding of the differences in evolution between the main target of current vaccines and this more conserved stalk region are missing. Here, we performed an evolutionary analysis of the stalk domains of the hemagglutinin of pre-pandemic seasonal H1N1, pandemic H1N1, seasonal H3N2, and influenza B viruses and show quantitatively for the first time that the stalk domain is evolving at a rate that is significantly slower than that of the head domain. Additionally, we found that the cross-reactive epitopes in the stalk domain targeted by broadly neutralizing monoclonal antibodies are evolving at an even slower rate compared to the full head and stalk regions of the protein. Finally, a fixed-effects likelihood selection analysis was performed for these virus groups in both the head and stalk domains. While several positive selection sites were found in the head domain, only a single site in the stalk domain of pre-pandemic seasonal H1 hemagglutinin was identified at amino acid position 468 (H1 numbering from methionine). This site is not located in or close to the epitopes of cross-reactive anti-stalk monoclonal antibodies. Furthermore, we found that changes in this site do not significantly impact virus binding or neutralization by human anti-stalk antibodies, suggesting that some positive selection in the stalk domain is independent of immune pressures. We conclude that, while the stalk domain does evolve over time, this evolution is slow and, historically, is not directed to aid in evading neutralizing antibody responses.

Predictive Modeling of Influenza Shows the Promise of Applied Evolutionary Biology

Seasonal influenza is controlled through vaccination campaigns. Evolution of influenza virus antigens means that vaccines must be updated to match novel strains, and vaccine effectiveness depends on the ability of scientists to predict nearly a year in advance which influenza variants will dominate in upcoming seasons. In this review, we highlight a promising new surveillance tool: predictive models. Based on data-sharing and close collaboration between the World Health Organization and academic scientists, these models use surveillance data to make quantitative predictions regarding influenza evolution. Predictive models demonstrate the potential of applied evolutionary biology to improve public health and disease control. We review the state of influenza predictive modeling and discuss next steps and recommendations to ensure that these models deliver upon their considerable biomedical promise.

Antigenicity of the 2015-2016 seasonal H1N1 human influenza virus HA and NA proteins

Antigenic drift of the hemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA) influenza virus proteins contributes to reduced vaccine efficacy. To analyze antigenic drift in human seasonal H1N1 viruses derived from the 2009 pandemic H1N1 virus (pH1N1-like viruses) accounts for the limited effectiveness (around 40%) of vaccination against pH1N1-like viruses during the 2015-2016 season, nasal washes/swabs collected from adult subjects in the Rochester, NY area, were used to sequence and isolate the circulating viruses. The HA and NA proteins from viruses circulating during the 2015-2016 season encoded eighteen and fourteen amino acid differences, respectively, when compared to A/California/04/2009, a strain circulating at the origin of the 2009 pandemic. The circulating strains belonged to subclade 6B.1, defined by HA amino acid substitutions S101N, S179N, and I233T. Hemagglutination-inhibiting (HAI) and HA-specific neutralizing serum antibody (Ab) titers from around 50% of pH1N1-like virus-infected subjects and immune ferrets were 2-4 fold lower for the 2015-2016 circulating strains compared to the vaccine strain. In addition, using a luminex-based mPlex HA assay, the binding of human sera from subjects infected with pH1N1-like viruses to the HA proteins from circulating and vaccine strains was not identical, strongly suggesting antigenic differences in the HA protein. Additionally, NA inhibition (NAI) Ab titers in human sera from pH1N1-like virus-infected subjects increased after the infection and there were measurable antigenic differences between the NA protein of circulating strains and the vaccine strain using both ferret and human antisera. Despite having been vaccinated, infected subjects exhibited low HAI Ab titers against the vaccine and circulating strains. This suggests that poor responses to the H1N1 component of the vaccine as well as antigenic differences in the HA and NA proteins of currently circulating pH1N1-like viruses could be contributing to risk of infection even after vaccination.

In Silico Vaccine Strain Prediction for Human Influenza Viruses

Vaccines preventing seasonal influenza infections save many lives every year; however, due to rapid viral evolution, they have to be updated frequently to remain effective. To identify appropriate vaccine strains, the World Health Organization (WHO) operates a global program that continually generates and interprets surveillance data. Over the past decade, sophisticated computational techniques, drawing from multiple theoretical disciplines, have been developed that predict viral lineages rising to predominance, assess their suitability as vaccine strains, link genetic to antigenic alterations, as well as integrate and visualize genetic, epidemiological, structural, and antigenic data. These could form the basis of an objective and reproducible vaccine strain-selection procedure utilizing the complex, large-scale data types from surveillance. To this end, computational techniques should already be incorporated into the vaccine-selection process in an independent, parallel track, and their performance continuously evaluated.

Does influenza pandemic preparedness and mitigation require gain-of-function research?

The risk and benefits of gain‐of‐function studies on influenza A have been widely debated since 2012 when the methods to create two respiratory transmissible H5N1 mutant isolates were published. Opponents of gain‐of‐function studies argue the biosecurity risk is unacceptable, while proponents cite potential uses for pandemic surveillance, preparedness and mitigation. In this commentary, we provide an overview of the background and applications of gain‐of‐function research and argue that the anticipated benefits have yet to materialize while the significant risks remain.

Calculating site-specific evolutionary rates at the amino-acid or codon level yields similar rate estimates

Site-specific evolutionary rates can be estimated from codon sequences or from amino-acid sequences. For codon sequences, the most popular methods use some variation of the dN∕dS ratio. For amino-acid sequences, one widely-used method is called Rate4Site, and it assigns a relative conservation score to each site in an alignment. How site-wise dN∕dS values relate to Rate4Site scores is not known. Here we elucidate the relationship between these two rate measurements. We simulate sequences with known dN∕dS, using either dN∕dS models or mutation–selection models for simulation. We then infer Rate4Site scores on the simulated alignments, and we compare those scores to either true or inferred dN∕dS values on the same alignments. We find that Rate4Site scores generally correlate well with true dN∕dS, and the correlation strengths increase in alignments with greater sequence divergence and more taxa. Moreover, Rate4Site scores correlate very well with inferred (as opposed to true) dN∕dS values, even for small alignments with little divergence. Finally, we verify this relationship between Rate4Site and dN∕dS in a variety of empirical datasets. We conclude that codon-level and amino-acid-level analysis frameworks are directly comparable and yield very similar inferences.

Viral factors in influenza pandemic risk assessment

The threat of an influenza A virus pandemic stems from continual virus spillovers from reservoir species, a tiny fraction of which spark sustained transmission in humans. To date, no pandemic emergence of a new influenza strain has been preceded by detection of a closely related precursor in an animal or human. Nonetheless, influenza surveillance efforts are expanding, prompting a need for tools to assess the pandemic risk posed by a detected virus. The goal would be to use genetic sequence and/or biological assays of viral traits to identify those non-human influenza viruses with the greatest risk of evolving into pandemic threats, and/or to understand drivers of such evolution, to prioritize pandemic prevention or response measures. We describe such efforts, identify progress and ongoing challenges, and discuss three specific traits of influenza viruses (hemagglutinin receptor binding specificity, hemagglutinin pH of activation, and polymerase complex efficiency) that contribute to pandemic risk.

A Comparison of One-Rate and Two-Rate Inference Frameworks for Site-Specific dN/dS Estimation

Two broad paradigms exist for inferring [Formula: see text] the ratio of nonsynonymous to synonymous substitution rates, from coding sequences: (i) a one-rate approach, where [Formula: see text] is represented with a single parameter, or (ii) a two-rate approach, where [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] are estimated separately. The performances of these two approaches have been well studied in the specific context of proper model specification, i.e., when the inference model matches the simulation model. By contrast, the relative performances of one-rate vs. two-rate parameterizations when applied to data generated according to a different mechanism remain unclear. Here, we compare the relative merits of one-rate and two-rate approaches in the specific context of model misspecification by simulating alignments with mutation-selection models rather than with [Formula: see text]-based models. We find that one-rate frameworks generally infer more accurate [Formula: see text] point estimates, even when [Formula: see text] varies among sites. In other words, modeling [Formula: see text] variation may substantially reduce accuracy of [Formula: see text] point estimates. These results appear to depend on the selective constraint operating at a given site. For sites under strong purifying selection ([Formula: see text]), one-rate and two-rate models show comparable performances. However, one-rate models significantly outperform two-rate models for sites under moderate-to-weak purifying selection. We attribute this distinction to the fact that, for these more quickly evolving sites, a given substitution is more likely to be nonsynonymous than synonymous. The data will therefore be relatively enriched for nonsynonymous changes, and modeling [Formula: see text] contributes excessive noise to [Formula: see text] estimates. We additionally find that high levels of divergence among sequences, rather than the number of sequences in the alignment, are more critical for obtaining precise point estimates.

The utility of protein structure as a predictor of site-wise dN/dS varies widely among HIV-1 proteins

Protein structure acts as a general constraint on the evolution of viral proteins. One widely recognized structural constraint explaining evolutionary variation among sites is the relative solvent accessibility (RSA) of residues in the folded protein. In influenza virus, the distance from functional sites has been found to explain an additional portion of the evolutionary variation in the external antigenic proteins. However, to what extent RSA and distance from a reference site in the protein can be used more generally to explain protein adaptation in other viruses and in the different proteins of any given virus remains an open question. To address this question, we have carried out an analysis of the distribution and structural predictors of site-wise dN/dS in HIV-1. Our results indicate that the distribution of dN/dS in HIV follows a smooth gamma distribution, with no special enrichment or depletion of sites with dN/dS at or above one. The variation in dN/dS can be partially explained by RSA and distance from a reference site in the protein, but these structural constraints do not act uniformly among the different HIV-1 proteins. Structural constraints are highly predictive in just one of the three enzymes and one of three structural proteins in HIV-1. For these two proteins, the protease enzyme and the gp120 structural protein, structure explains between 30 and 40% of the variation in dN/dS. Finally, for the gp120 protein of the receptor-binding complex, we also find that glycosylation sites explain just 2% of the variation in dN/dS and do not explain gp120 evolution independently of either RSA or distance from the apical surface.

Influenza evolution and H3N2 vaccine effectiveness, with application to the 2014/2015 season

Influenza A is a serious disease that causes significant morbidity and mortality, and vaccines against the seasonal influenza disease are of variable effectiveness. In this article, we discuss the use of the pepitope method to predict the dominant influenza strain and the expected vaccine effectiveness in the coming flu season. We illustrate how the effectiveness of the 2014/2015 A/Texas/50/2012 [clade 3C.1] vaccine against the A/California/02/2014 [clade 3C.3a] strain that emerged in the population can be estimated via pepitope In addition, we show by a multidimensional scaling analysis of data collected through 2014, the emergence of a new A/New Mexico/11/2014-like cluster [clade 3C.2a] that is immunologically distinct from the A/California/02/2014-like strains.

Prediction of influenza B vaccine effectiveness from sequence data

Influenza is a contagious respiratory illness that causes significant human morbidity and mortality, affecting 5-15% of the population in a typical epidemic season. Human influenza epidemics are caused by types A and B, with roughly 25% of human cases due to influenza B. Influenza B is a single-stranded RNA virus with a high mutation rate, and both prior immune history and vaccination put significant pressure on the virus to evolve. Due to the high rate of viral evolution, the influenza B vaccine component of the annual influenza vaccine is updated, roughly every other year in recent years. To predict when an update to the vaccine is needed, an estimate of expected vaccine effectiveness against a range of viral strains is required. We here introduce a method to measure antigenic distance between the influenza B vaccine and circulating viral strains. The measure correlates well with effectiveness of the influenza B component of the annual vaccine in humans between 1979 and 2014. We discuss how this measure of antigenic distance may be used in the context of annual influenza vaccine design and prediction of vaccine effectiveness.

Sequence amplification via cell passaging creates spurious signals of positive adaptation in influenza virus H3N2 hemagglutinin

Clinical influenza A virus isolates are frequently not sequenced directly. Instead, a majority of these isolates (~70% in 2015) are first subjected to passaging for amplification, most commonly in non-human cell culture. Here, we find that this passaging leaves distinct signals of adaptation, which can confound evolutionary analyses of the viral sequences. We find distinct patterns of adaptation to Madin-Darby (MDCK) and monkey cell culture absent from unpassaged hemagglutinin sequences. These patterns also dominate pooled datasets not separated by passaging type, and they increase in proportion to the number of passages performed. By contrast, MDCK-SIAT1 passaged sequences seem mostly (but not entirely) free of passaging adaptations. Contrary to previous studies, we find that using only internal branches of influenza virus phylogenetic trees is insufficient to correct for passaging artifacts. These artifacts can only be safely avoided by excluding passaged sequences entirely from subsequent analysis. We conclude that future influenza virus evolutionary analyses should appropriately control for potentially confounding effects of passaging adaptations.

Structural constraints-based evaluation of immunogenic avirulent toxins from Clostridium botulinum C2 and C3 toxins as subunit vaccines

Clostridium botulinum (group-III) is an anaerobic bacterium producing C2 and C3 toxins in addition to botulinum neurotoxins in avian and mammalian cells. C2 and C3 toxins are members of bacterial ADP-ribosyltransferase superfamily, which modify the eukaryotic cell surface proteins by ADP-ribosylation reaction. Herein, the mutant proteins with lack of catalytic and pore forming function derived from C2 (C2I and C2II) and C3 toxins were computationally evaluated to understand their structure-function integrity. We have chosen many structural constraints including local structural environment, folding process, backbone conformation, conformational dynamic sub-space, NAD-binding specificity and antigenic determinants for screening of suitable avirulent toxins. A total of 20 avirulent mutants were identified out of 23 mutants, which were experimentally produced by site-directed mutagenesis. No changes in secondary structural elements in particular to α-helices and β-sheets and also in fold rate of all-β classes. Structural stability was maintained by reordered hydrophobic and hydrogen bonding patterns. Molecular dynamic studies suggested that coupled mutations may restrain the binding affinity to NAD(+) or protein substrate upon structural destabilization. Avirulent toxins of this study have stable energetic backbone conformation with a common blue print of folding process. Molecular docking studies revealed that avirulent mutants formed more favorable hydrogen bonding with the side-chain of amino acids near to conserved NAD-binding core, despite of restraining NAD-binding specificity. Thus, structural constraints in the avirulent toxins would determine their immunogenic nature for the prioritization of protein-based subunit vaccine/immunogens to avian and veterinary animals infected with C. botulinum.

Dissecting the roles of local packing density and longer-range effects in protein sequence evolution

What are the structural determinants of protein sequence evolution? A number of site-specific structural characteristics have been proposed, most of which are broadly related to either the density of contacts or the solvent accessibility of individual residues. Most importantly, there has been disagreement in the literature over the relative importance of solvent accessibility and local packing density for explaining site-specific sequence variability in proteins. We show that this discussion has been confounded by the definition of local packing density. The most commonly used measures of local packing, such as contact number and the weighted contact number, represent the combined effects of local packing density and longer-range effects. As an alternative, we propose a truly local measure of packing density around a single residue, based on the Voronoi cell volume. We show that the Voronoi cell volume, when calculated relative to the geometric center of amino-acid side chains, behaves nearly identically to the relative solvent accessibility, and each individually can explain, on average, approximately 34% of the site-specific variation in evolutionary rate in a data set of 209 enzymes. An additional 10% of variation can be explained by nonlocal effects that are captured in the weighted contact number. Consequently, evolutionary variation at a site is determined by the combined effects of the immediate amino-acid neighbors of that site and effects mediated by more distant amino acids. We conclude that instead of contrasting solvent accessibility and local packing density, future research should emphasize on the relative importance of immediate contacts and longer-range effects on evolutionary variation. Proteins 2016; 84:841-854. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Functional Sites Induce Long-Range Evolutionary Constraints in Enzymes

Functional residues in proteins tend to be highly conserved over evolutionary time. However, to what extent functional sites impose evolutionary constraints on nearby or even more distant residues is not known. Here, we report pervasive conservation gradients toward catalytic residues in a dataset of 524 distinct enzymes: evolutionary conservation decreases approximately linearly with increasing distance to the nearest catalytic residue in the protein structure. This trend encompasses, on average, 80% of the residues in any enzyme, and it is independent of known structural constraints on protein evolution such as residue packing or solvent accessibility. Further, the trend exists in both monomeric and multimeric enzymes and irrespective of enzyme size and/or location of the active site in the enzyme structure. By contrast, sites in protein-protein interfaces, unlike catalytic residues, are only weakly conserved and induce only minor rate gradients. In aggregate, these observations show that functional sites, and in particular catalytic residues, induce long-range evolutionary constraints in enzymes.

Causes of evolutionary rate variation among protein sites

It has long been recognized that certain sites within a protein, such as sites in the protein core or catalytic residues in enzymes, are evolutionarily more conserved than other sites. However, our understanding of rate variation among sites remains surprisingly limited. Recent progress to address this includes the development of a wide array of reliable methods to estimate site-specific substitution rates from sequence alignments. In addition, several molecular traits have been identified that correlate with site-specific mutation rates, and novel mechanistic biophysical models have been proposed to explain the observed correlations. Nonetheless, current models explain, at best, approximately 60% of the observed variance, highlighting the limitations of current methods and models and the need for new research directions.

A CRISPR/Cas9 and Cre/Lox system-based express vaccine development strategy against re-emerging Pseudorabies virus

Virus evolves rapidly to escape vaccine-induced immunity, posing a desperate demand for efficient vaccine development biotechnologies. Here we present an express vaccine development strategy based on CRISPR/Cas9 and Cre/Lox system against re-emerging Pseudorabies virus, which caused the recent devastating swine pseudorabies outbreak in China. By CRISPR/Cas9 system, the virulent genes of the newly isolated strain were simultaneously substituted by marker genes, which were subsequently excised using Cre/Lox system for vaccine safety concern. Notably, single cell FACS technology was applied to further promote virus purification efficiency. The combination of these state-of-art technologies greatly accelerated vaccine development. Finally, vaccination and challenge experiments proved this vaccine candidate's protective efficacy in pigs and the promise to control current pseudorabies outbreak. This is, to our knowledge, the first successful vaccine development based on gene edit technologies, demonstrating these technologies leap from laboratory to industry. It may pave the way for future express antiviral vaccine development.

Determination of antigenicity-altering patches on the major surface protein of human influenza A/H3N2 viruses

Human influenza viruses are rapidly evolving RNA viruses that cause short-term respiratory infections with substantial morbidity and mortality in annual epidemics. Uncovering the general principles of viral coevolution with human hosts is important for pathogen surveillance and vaccine design. Protein regions are an appropriate model for the interactions between two macromolecules, but the currently used epitope definition for the major antigen of influenza viruses, namely hemagglutinin, is very broad. Here, we combined genetic, evolutionary, antigenic, and structural information to determine the most relevant regions of the hemagglutinin of human influenza A/H3N2 viruses for interaction with human immunoglobulins. We estimated the antigenic weights of amino acid changes at individual sites from hemagglutination inhibition data using antigenic tree inference followed by spatial clustering of antigenicity-altering protein sites on the protein structure. This approach determined six relevant areas (patches) for antigenic variation that had a key role in the past antigenic evolution of the viruses. Previous transitions between successive predominating antigenic types of H3N2 viruses always included amino acid changes in either the first or second antigenic patch. Interestingly, there was only partial overlap between the antigenic patches and the patches under strong positive selection. Therefore, besides alterations of antigenicity, other interactions with the host may shape the evolution of human influenza A/H3N2 viruses.

Computational and Functional Analysis of the Virus-Receptor Interface Reveals Host Range Trade-Offs in New World Arenaviruses

Animal viruses frequently cause zoonotic disease in humans. As these viruses are highly diverse, evaluating the threat that they pose remains a major challenge, and efficient approaches are needed to rapidly predict virus-host compatibility. Here, we develop a combined computational and experimental approach to assess the compatibility of New World arenaviruses, endemic in rodents, with the host TfR1 entry receptors of different potential new host species. Using signatures of positive selection, we identify a small motif on rodent TfR1 that conveys species specificity to the entry of viruses into cells. However, we show that mutations in this region affect the entry of each arenavirus differently. For example, a human single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) in this region, L212V, makes human TfR1 a weaker receptor for one arenavirus, Machupo virus, but a stronger receptor for two other arenaviruses, Junin and Sabia viruses. Collectively, these findings set the stage for potential evolutionary trade-offs, where natural selection for resistance to one virus may make humans or rodents susceptible to other arenavirus species. Given the complexity of this host-virus interplay, we propose a computational method to predict these interactions, based on homology modeling and computational docking of the virus-receptor protein-protein interaction. We demonstrate the utility of this model for Machupo virus, for which a suitable cocrystal structural template exists. Our model effectively predicts whether the TfR1 receptors of different species will be functional receptors for Machupo virus entry. Approaches such at this could provide a first step toward computationally predicting the "host jumping" potential of a virus into a new host species.

IMPORTANCE

We demonstrate how evolutionary trade-offs may exist in the dynamic evolutionary interplay between viruses and their hosts, where natural selection for resistance to one virus could make humans or rodents susceptible to other virus species. We present an algorithm that predicts which species have cell surface receptors that make them susceptible to Machupo virus, based on computational docking of protein structures. Few molecular models exist for predicting the risk of spillover of a particular animal virus into humans or new animal populations. Our results suggest that a combination of evolutionary analysis, structural modeling, and experimental verification may provide an efficient approach for screening and assessing the potential spillover risks of viruses circulating in animal populations.

Time dependence of evolutionary metrics during the 2009 pandemic influenza virus outbreak

With the expansion of DNA sequencing technology, quantifying evolution in emerging viral outbreaks has become an important tool for scientists and public health officials. Although it is known that the degree of sequence divergence significantly affects the calculation of evolutionary metrics in viral outbreaks, the extent and duration of this effect during an actual outbreak remains unclear. We have analyzed how limited divergence time during an early viral outbreak affects the accuracy of molecular evolutionary metrics. Using sequence data from the first 25 months of the 2009 pandemic H1N1 (pH1N1) outbreak, we calculated each of three different standard evolutionary metrics-molecular clock rate (i.e., evolutionary rate), whole gene dN/dS, and site-wise dN/dS-for hemagglutinin and neuraminidase, using increasingly longer time windows, from 1 month to 25 months. For the molecular clock rate, we found that at least three to four months of temporal divergence from the start of sampling was required to make precise estimates that also agreed with long-term values. For whole gene dN/dS, we found that at least two months of data were required to generate precise estimates, but six to nine months were required for estimates to approach their long term values. For site-wise dN/dS estimates, we found that at least six months of sampling divergence was required before the majority of sites had at least one mutation and were thus evolutionarily informative. Furthermore, eight months of sampling divergence was required before the site-wise estimates appropriately reflected the distribution of values expected from known protein-structure-based evolutionary pressure in influenza. In summary, we found that evolutionary metrics calculated from gene sequence data in early outbreaks should be expected to deviate from their long-term estimates for at least several months after the initial emergence and sequencing of the virus.