Impact of the North American Free Trade Agreement on high-fructose corn syrup supply in Canada: a natural experiment using synthetic control methods

Trade policy reform, retail food prices and access to healthy diets worldwide

Recent use of least-cost diets as a measure of global food security revealed that over 3 billion people are unable to afford sufficient nutritious food for an active and healthy life, driving demand for policy changes to improve access and affordability. This study quantifies the role of imports in consumer prices, matching retail prices in 144 countries to imports by origin of the item or its main ingredient, resulting in a total of 13,846 pairs of a retail price and its import cost in 2017. We find that 55% of retail items had some active imports supplementing domestic production, and of those around 48% have nonzero tariffs whose average effective rate is around 6.7% of the imported commodity price. Over all countries for which data are available, the share of consumer prices for least-cost healthy diets that is attributable to tariffs and non-tariff measures averages 0.67% and 2.45% globally. The highest restrictions are on nutrient-rich vegetables, fruits and animal-sourced foods. Access to bulk commodities from diverse origins is essential for food and nutrition security, providing a greater diversity of foods and food ingredients at lower and more stable prices than can be grown at any one location. On average over all food products that are imported, 83% of the retail price is domestic value added after arrival. We conclude that food imports are best understood as inputs to the domestic production and distribution of retail items, with consumer prices and growth of the food sector dependent on the cost levels, infrastructure and institutions underlying each product's entire value chain.

Food environment research in Canada: a rapid review of methodologies and measures deployed between 2010 and 2021

Numerous research methodologies have been used to examine food environments. Existing reviews synthesizing food environment measures have examined a limited number of domains or settings and none have specifically targeted Canada. This rapid review aimed to 1) map research methodologies and measures that have been used to assess food environments; 2) examine what food environment dimensions and equity related-factors have been assessed; and 3) identify research gaps and priorities to guide future research. A systematic search of primary articles evaluating the Canadian food environment in a real-world setting was conducted. Publications in English or French published in peer-reviewed journals between January 1 2010 and June 17 2021 and indexed in Web of Science, CAB Abstracts and Ovid MEDLINE were considered. The search strategy adapted an internationally-adopted food environment monitoring framework covering 7 domains (Food Marketing; Labelling; Prices; Provision; Composition; Retail; and Trade and Investment). The final sample included 220 articles. Overall, Trade and Investment (1%, n = 2), Labelling (7%, n = 15) and, to a lesser extent, Prices (14%, n = 30) were the least studied domains in Canada. Among Provision articles, healthcare (2%, n = 1) settings were underrepresented compared to school (67%, n = 28) and recreation and sport (24%, n = 10) settings, as was the food service industry (14%, n = 6) compared to grocery stores (86%, n = 36) in the Composition domain. The study identified a vast selection of measures employed in Canada overall and within single domains. Equity-related factors were only examined in half of articles (n = 108), mostly related to Retail (n = 81). A number of gaps remain that prevent a holistic and systems-level analysis of food environments in Canada. As Canada continues to implement policies to improve the quality of food environments in order to improve dietary patterns, targeted research to address identified gaps and harmonize methods across studies will help evaluate policy impact over time.

How to Use Quasi-Experimental Methods in Cardiovascular Research: A Review of Current Practice

BACKGROUND

Quasi-experimental methods (QEMs) are a family of techniques used to estimate causal relationships when randomized controlled trials are unfeasible or unethical. They offer a powerful alternative to observational studies by introducing random assignment of individuals or groups into their design, thereby offering stronger means of establishing causation. The use of QEMs in cardiovascular research has not been systematically examined to determine steps toward improving and expanding their use.

METHODS

We identified 4 main techniques using a systematic search strategy from 2016 to 2021: instrumental variable analysis, interrupted time series analysis, difference-in-differences analysis, and regression discontinuity designs. QEMs are examined as alternatives to randomized controlled trials and traditional observational studies; as more observational data becomes available to researchers, there are more opportunities to apply these techniques. Eligible articles were selected based on publication in high-ranked journals. The quality of eligible articles was appraised using the Joanna Briggs Institute checklist for quasi-experimental studies.

RESULTS

Data from 380 studies were extracted based on our inclusion criteria. Forty-two of these studies were published in the top 10 medical or top 20 cardiovascular disease journals, and 25 studies were included after quality appraisal. The review identifies the main features and limitations associated with each technique, providing readers with practical guidance on how to apply these to their research. A graphical decision aid was developed to facilitate the routine use of QEMs.

CONCLUSIONS

The use of QEMs in cardiovascular research published in contemporary, high-impact articles was examined. Findings are biased toward this segment of literature, which represents the latest developments in this growing area of cardiovascular research. The decision aid is a novel schematic that researchers can adopt into practice.

Estimating the unintended impact of the North American free trade agreement on U.S. public health

The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) was introduced in 1994 between Canada, Mexico, and the United States to encourage trilateral trade. In 2008, an unrestricted reciprocal sugar trade agreement, was implemented between Mexico and the United States as part of NAFTA, which led to a significant decrease in the United States' sugar price. However, critics argue that free trade agreements that reduce trade barriers on products such as sugar threaten public health. This study uses the synthetic control method to investigate the causal impact of the unrestricted sugar trade agreement on sugar consumption and diabetes prevalence in the United States. First, we show that sugar consumption in the United States increased by an average of 16% annually after the agreement was signed, corresponding to 5240g per capita. Second, we show that the crude prevalence of diabetes increased by an average of 1% annually in the United States after the agreement was signed, with an increase of 1% and 2% for men and women, respectively. This unintended consequence of NAFTA has had an estimated economic cost of $324.37 million annually.

Brexit, trade and the governance of non-communicable diseases: a research agenda

BACKGROUND

The UK's post-Brexit trade strategy has potentially important implications for population health and equity. In particular, it will impact on the structural risk factors for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), including the consumption of health-harming commodities such as tobacco, alcohol and ultra-processed food and beverages. This article catalogues recent developments in UK trade policy. It then presents a narrative review of the existing research literature on trade and health and previous, prospective studies on the health impacts of Brexit. In so doing it identifies key questions and foci for a future research agenda on the implications of UK's emerging trade regime for NCD prevention.

MAIN TEXT

We identify five key areas for future research. (1) Additional scholarship to document the health effects of key trade agreements negotiated by the UK government; (2) The implications of these agreements for policy-making to address health impacts, including the potential for legal challenges under dispute settlement mechanisms; (3) The strategic objectives being pursued by the UK government and the extent to which they support or undermine public health; (4) The process of trade policy-making, its openness to public health interests and actors and the impact of the political and ideological legacy of Brexit on outcomes; (5) The impact of the UK's post-Brexit trade policy on partner countries and blocs and their cumulative impact on the global trade regime.

CONCLUSIONS

Further research is urgently need to understand the ways in which the UK's post-Brexit trade strategy will impact on NCDs and policy responses to address these, including the openness of the trade policy architecture to health issues. The outcomes of this process will have wider systemic effects on the global trade regime with implications for health. Researchers must be cognizant of the ideological components of the policy debate which have been absent from previous analysis of Brexit, trade and health.

The impact of mass gatherings on the local transmission of COVID-19 and the implications for social distancing policies: Evidence from Hong Kong

Mass gatherings provide conditions for the transmission of infectious diseases and pose complex challenges to public health. Faced with the COVID-19 pandemic, governments and health experts called for suspension of gatherings in order to reduce social contact via which virus is transmitted. However, few studies have investigated the contribution of mass gatherings to COVID-19 transmission in local communities. In Hong Kong, the coincidence of the relaxation of group gathering restrictions with demonstrations against the National Security Law in mid-2020 raised concerns about the safety of mass gatherings under the pandemic. Therefore, this study examines the impacts of mass gatherings on the local transmission of COVID-19 and evaluates the importance of social distancing policies. With an aggregated dataset of epidemiological, city-level meteorological and socioeconomic data, a Synthetic Control Method (SCM) is used for constructing a 'synthetic Hong Kong' from over 200 Chinese cities. This counterfactual control unit is used to simulate COVID-19 infection patterns (i.e., the number of total cases and daily new cases) in the absence of mass gatherings. Comparing the hypothetical trends and the actual ones, our results indicate that the infection rate observed in Hong Kong is substantially higher than that in the counterfactual control unit (2.63% vs. 0.07%). As estimated, mass gatherings increased the number of new infections by 62 cases (or 87.58% of total new cases) over the 10-day period and by 737 cases (or 97.23%) over the 30-day period. These findings suggest the necessity of tightening social distancing policies, especially the prohibition on group gathering regulation (POGGR), to prevent and control COVID-19 outbreaks.

Influence of Prefecture-Level Yield of Not-for-Sale Vegetables on Vegetable Intake in Japan: A Natural Experiment

Increased vegetable intake contributes to better health for people. The distribution of not-for-sale vegetables is an important source of vegetable intake in Japan. This study examined the impact of prefecture-level yield of not-for-sale vegetables on vegetable intake in Japan. This study regarded the increase in yield of not-for-sale Chinese cabbage in Nagano Prefecture in 2012 as a natural experiment. The years 2012 and 2016 were the large-scale survey years of the Japanese National Health and Nutrition Survey. Therefore, the effect of the change in prefecture-level yield of not-for-sale vegetables on vegetable intake was evaluated by comparing the changes in Chinese cabbage intake in Nagano between 2012 and 2016 with those of other prefectures classified in the same regional block as Nagano. Statistical analysis was performed using general linear models to examine the interaction of year and prefecture with Chinese cabbage intake. Consequently, the regression coefficient for the interaction term was −3.38 (95% CI, −9.59–2.83), that of the model adjusted for basic characteristics and energy intake was −2.99 (95% CI, −9.22–3.24), and that of the model adding health-related variables was −5.03 (95% CI, −12.40–2.34). The prefecture-level yield of not-for-sale vegetables typically had a minor effect on vegetable intake.

Reassessing the health impacts of trade and investment agreements: a systematic review of quantitative studies, 2016-20

To ensure a high level of health protection, governments must ensure that health and trade policy objectives are aligned. We conducted a systematic review of the health impacts of trade policies, including trade and investment agreements (TIAs), to provide a timely overview of this field. We systematically reviewed studies evaluating the health impacts of trade policies published between Jan 19, 2016, and July 10, 2020. Included studies were quantitative studies evaluating the impact of TIAs and trade policies on health determinants or outcomes. We evaluated methodological quality and performed a narrative synthesis. 21 of 28 067 articles identified via searches met our criteria. Methodologically strong studies found reduced child mortality, deteriorating worker health, rising supplies of sugar, ultra-processed food, tobacco, and alcohol supplies, and increased drug overdoses following trade reforms, compared with the time periods before trade reform. However, associations varied substantially across contexts and socioeconomic characteristics. Our findings show that trade policies, including TIAs, have diverse effects on health and health determinants. These effects vary substantially across contexts and socioeconomic groups. Governments seeking to adopt healthy trade policies should consider these updated findings to ensure that opportunities for health improvement are leveraged and widely shared, while harms are avoided, especially among vulnerable groups.

COVID-19, Trade, and Health: This Changes Everything? Comment on "What Generates Attention to Health in Trade Policy-Making? Lessons From Success in Tobacco Control and Access to Medicines: A Qualitative Study of Australia and the (Comprehensive and Progressive) Trans-Pacific Partnership"

Townsend and colleagues highlighted the myriad political forces which fostered attention to health issues during negotiations to establish a new trans-pacific trade deal in Australia (the CP-TPP [Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership], formerly known as TPP). Among the factors they identify, exporter interests and exogenous events helped to generate attention to trade-related concerns about tobacco and access medicines, and limited attention to nutrition and alcohol. These are important considerations as the United Kingdom negotiates a trade deal with the United States in haste, whilst at the same time attempting to manage the ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. In this commentary, I reflect on changing attention to trade and nutrition during the COVID-19 pandemic in light of Townsend and colleagues' analysis. I explore scope for greater attention to nutrition in US-UK trade negotiations, and the challenges created by the vested interests of major UK and US processed food exporters. I further discuss the utility of the theoretical tools employed by Townsend and colleagues for wider debates in the political economy of health.

Regional International Organizations and Health: A Framework for Analysis

CONTEXT

Regional international organizations (RIOs), from the South African Development Community (SADC) to the European Union (EU), are organizations that promote cooperation among countries in a specific region of the world. Asking what RIOs do to health and health policy by looking only at their formal health policies can understate their effects (e.g., a free trade agreement with no stated health goals can affect health policy) and overstate their effects (as with agreements full of ambition that did not deliver much).

METHODS

We adopt a "three-faces" framework that identifies RIOs' direct health policies, the effects of their trade and market policies, and their effects on health via fiscal governance of their member states to better capture their health impact. We tested the usefulness of the framework by examining the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, EU, North American Free Trade Agreement, SADC, and the Union of South American Nations.

FINDINGS

All RIOs had some impact on health systems and policies, and, in many cases, the principal policies were not identified as health policy.

CONCLUSIONS

Such a framework will be useful in understanding the effects of RIOs on health systems and policies because it captures indirect and even unintended health effects in a way that permits development of explanatory theories.

Changes in apparent consumption of staple food in Mexico associated with the gradual implementation of the NAFTA

In 1994, the United States, Canada, and Mexico signed the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) to remove trade barriers and facilitate cross-border trade in goods and services. Worldwide, trade agreements, urbanization and economic development have shaped significant changes in dietary habits. This study aims to evaluate the association between the gradual implementation of NAFTA and changes in apparent consumption of staple foods in Mexico. We analyzed national apparent consumption of animal- and vegetable-source foods, using data from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) from 1970 to 2018. Association between NAFTA and apparent consumption was estimated using interrupted time series analysis (ITSA) with synthetic controls and included two inflection points based on the implementation of NAFTA: 1994, when the agreement began, and 2008 when it was fully implemented. As a result, comparing Mexico with the synthetic control, we found a significant decrease in apparent consumption of pulses, -3.22 and -1.92 kcal/capita/day in the post-1994 and post-2008 periods, respectively. The vegetable-source foods showed an increase of 5.79 kcal/capita/day after 2008. The trends of apparent consumption of animal-source foods, eggs, and milk had significant increases after 1994 and 2008. The apparent consumption of meat increased only after 2008. The implementation of NAFTA was associated with an increase in apparent consumption of food from animal-source and a decrease in consumption of pulses. After 2008, an increase in apparent consumption of vegetable-source foods was observed.

Is compulsory home quarantine less effective than centralized quarantine in controlling the COVID-19 outbreak? Evidence from Hong Kong

Faced with the global spread of COVID-19, the Hong Kong government imposed compulsory home quarantine on all overseas arrivals, while cities in mainland China and Macau adopted a more stringent centralized quarantine approach. This study evaluates the effectiveness of compulsory home quarantine as a means of pandemic control. Combining epidemiological data with traditional socioeconomic and meteorological data from over 250 cities, we employ the Synthetic Control Method (SCM) to construct a counterfactual "synthetic Hong Kong". This model simulates the infection trends for a hypothetical situation in which HK adopts centralized quarantine measures, and compares them to actual infection numbers. Results suggest that home quarantine would have been less effective than centralized quarantine initially. However, the infection rate under home quarantine later converges with the counterfactual estimate under centralized quarantine (0.136% vs. 0.174%), suggesting similar efficacy in the later phase of implementation. Considering its minimal reliance on public resources, home quarantine with heightened enforcement may therefore be preferable to centralized quarantine in countries with limited public health resources. Home quarantine as a quarantine alternative balances public protection and individual freedom, while conserving resources, making it a more sustainable option for many cities.

Brexit and trade policy: an analysis of the governance of UK trade policy and what it means for health and social justice

BACKGROUND

There is an extensive body of research demonstrating that trade and globalisation can have wide-ranging implications for health. Robust governance is key to ensuring that health, social justice and sustainability are key considerations within trade policy, and that health risks from trade are effectively mitigated and benefits are maximised. The UK's departure from the EU provides a rare opportunity to examine a context where trade governance arrangements are being created anew, and to explore the consequences of governance choices and structures for health and social justice. Despite its importance to public health, there has been no systematic analysis of the implications of UK trade policy governance. We therefore conducted an analysis of the governance of the UK's trade policy from a public health and social justice perspective.

RESULTS

Several arrangements required for good governance appear to have been implemented - information provision, public consultation, accountability to Parliament, and strengthening of civil service capacity. However, our detailed analyses of these pillars of governance identified significant weaknesses in each of these areas.

CONCLUSION

The establishment of a new trade policy agenda calls for robust systems of governance. However, our analysis demonstrates that, despite decades of mounting evidence on the health and equity impacts of trade and the importance of strong systems of governance, the UK government has largely ignored this evidence and failed to galvanise the opportunity to include public health and equity considerations and strengthen democratic involvement in trade policy. This underscores the point that the evidence alone will not guarantee that health and justice are prioritised. Rather, we need strong systems of governance everywhere that can help seize the health benefits of international trade and minimise its detrimental impacts. A failure to strengthen governance risks poor policy design and implementation, with unintended and inequitable distribution of harms, and 'on-paper' commitments to health, social justice, and democracy unfulfilled in practice. Although the detailed findings relate to the situation in the UK, the issues raised are, we believe, of wider relevance for those with an interest of governing for health in the area of international trade.

COVID-19 and the collapse of global trade: building an effective public health response

The scale of the COVID-19 pandemic is a consequence of international trade and globalisation, with the virus spreading along established trade and travel routes. However, the pandemic also affects international trade through reductions in both supply and demand. In this Viewpoint we describe the many implications for health and propose ways to mitigate them. Problems include reduced access to medical supplies (in particular, personal protective equipment and tests), budgetary shortfalls as a result of reduced tariffs and taxes, and a general decline in economic activity-leading, in many cases, to recessions, threats to social safety nets, and to increased precariousness of income, employment, and food security. However, in exceptional cases, the pandemic has also brought some transient benefits, including to the environment. Looking ahead, there will be great pressure to further liberalise rules on trade to encourage economic recovery, but it is essential that trade policy be informed by its many consequences for health to ensure that the benefits are maximised and threats are minimised through active identification and mitigation.

Ultra-processed foods and the nutrition transition: Global, regional and national trends, food systems transformations and political economy drivers

Understanding the drivers and dynamics of global ultra-processed food (UPF) consumption is essential, given the evidence linking these foods with adverse health outcomes. In this synthesis review, we take two steps. First, we quantify per capita volumes and trends in UPF sales, and ingredients (sweeteners, fats, sodium and cosmetic additives) supplied by these foods, in countries classified by income and region. Second, we review the literature on food systems and political economy factors that likely explain the observed changes. We find evidence for a substantial expansion in the types and quantities of UPFs sold worldwide, representing a transition towards a more processed global diet but with wide variations between regions and countries. As countries grow richer, higher volumes and a wider variety of UPFs are sold. Sales are highest in Australasia, North America, Europe and Latin America but growing rapidly in Asia, the Middle East and Africa. These developments are closely linked with the industrialization of food systems, technological change and globalization, including growth in the market and political activities of transnational food corporations and inadequate policies to protect nutrition in these new contexts. The scale of dietary change underway, especially in highly populated middle-income countries, raises serious concern for global health.

Liberal trade policy and food insecurity across the income distribution: an observational analysis in 132 countries, 2014-17

Background

Eradicating food insecurity is necessary for achieving global health goals. Liberal trade policies might increase food supplies but how these policies influence individual-level food insecurity remains uncertain. We aimed to assess the association between liberal trade policies and food insecurity at the individual level, and whether this association varies across country-income and household-income groups.

Methods

For this observational analysis, we combined individual-level data from the Food and Agricultural Organization of the UN with a country-level trade policy index from the Konjunkturforschungsstelle Swiss Economic Institute. We examined the association between a country's trade policy score and the probability of individuals reporting moderate-severe or severe food insecurity using regression models and algorithmic weighting procedures. We controlled for multiple covariates, including gross domestic product, democratisation level, and population size. Additionally, we examined heterogeneity by country and household income.

Results

Our sample comprised 460 102 individuals in 132 countries for the period of 2014–17. Liberal trade policy was not significantly associated with moderate-severe or severe food insecurity after covariate adjustment. However, among households in high-income countries with incomes higher than US$25 430 per person per year (adjusted for purchasing power parity), a unit increase in the trade policy index (more liberal) corresponded to a 0·07% (95% CI −0·10 to −0·04) reduction in the predicted probability of reporting moderate-severe food insecurity. Among households in the lowest income decile (<$450 per person per year) in low-income countries, a unit increase in the trade policy index was associated with a 0·35% (0·06 to 0·60) increase in the predicted probability of reporting moderate-severe food insecurity.

Interpretation

The relationship between liberal trade policy and food insecurity varied across countries and households. Liberal trade policy was predominantly associated with lower food insecurity in high-income countries but corresponded to increased food insecurity among the world's poorest households in low-income countries.

Funding

Joseph Rowntree Foundation, Economic and Social Research Council.

Effects of high fructose corn syrup on ethanol self-administration in rats

OBJECTIVE

The addition of sweeteners to alcoholic beverages is thought to facilitate heavy alcohol consumption, and this may be of particular concern when the additive is high fructose corn syrup (HFCS).

METHODS

Four experiments in male Sprague-Dawley rats were performed to investigate whether the addition of 25% HFCS to ethanol (5%, 10%, and 20% v/v ethanol) would alter its intraoral operant self-administration, palatability, and sensitivity to food deprivation stress.

RESULTS

As anticipated, HFCS drastically increased ethanol intake, and this effect appeared driven by its caloric value. Importantly, HFCS increased the persistence of operant responding following extinction in animals trained to self-administer the combination, and the addition of HFCS to ethanol changed subsequent responses to ethanol, including increased palatability and intake.

CONCLUSIONS

These results in rats suggest that the addition of HFCS to the list of ingredients in sweetened alcoholic beverages could play a significant role in the harmful consumption of ethanol-containing beverages.

Toxic trade: the impact of preferential trade agreements on alcohol imports from Australia in partner countries

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Trade liberalization is hypothesized to increase the availability of imported alcoholic beverages in importing countries. This study provides the first longitudinal analysis of the impact of preferential trade agreements (PTAs) on alcohol imports.

DESIGN

Panel data comprising alcohol-product (n = 15) by importing country (n = 16) observations from 1988 to 2016 constructed from global databases. The relationship between PTA status, tariff level and alcohol imports were assessed using a log-linear model. Unobserved heterogeneity was addressed through a combination of differencing and product-year fixed-effects.

SETTING

Australia and its 16 free trade partners (PTA year in parentheses), classified by low [< 50%: Brunei (2010), Cambodia (2010), Indonesia (2010), Malaysia (2010, 2013), Myanmar (2010), Thailand (2003, 2010) and Vietnam (2010)] and high (> 50%: Chile (2009), China (2015), Japan (2015), Korea (2014), Laos (2010), New Zealand (1983, 2010), Philippines (2010), Singapore (2003, 2010) and United States (2005)] percentage of alcohol consumers in the population.

MEASUREMENTS

Independent variables were the existence of a PTA with Australia and tariff (border tax) rate on Australian products. Outcomes were (log) Australian imports; and a binary indicator of any imports from Australia.

FINDINGS

Introducing a PTA has been associated with a statistically significant increase in the share of Australian alcoholic beverage imports in its partner country's total alcoholic beverage import supply, mainly from trade in new alcoholic beverage categories (0.067, P < 0.05). Tariff rate reductions have been associated with increased imports in both low and high consumption country groups; however, the effect has been larger in low consumption countries (-0.189, P < 0.01 compared with -0.016, P < 0.05). The impact of PTA adoption was significant in low consumption countries only (1.141, P < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Preferential trade agreements involving Australia have been positively associated with alcohol imports from Australia in countries with low rates of alcohol consumption, due primarily to trade in new products.

Using natural experiments to improve public health evidence: a review of context and utility for obesity prevention

Background

Natural experiments are increasingly valued as a way to assess the health impact of health and non-health interventions when planned controlled experimental research designs may be infeasible or inappropriate to implement. This study sought to investigate the value of natural experiments by exploring how they have been used in practice. The study focused on obesity prevention research as one complex programme area for applying natural experiment studies.

Methods

A literature search sought obesity prevention research from January 1997 to December 2017 and identified 46 population health studies that self-described as a natural experiment.

Results

The majority of studies identified were published in the last 5 years, illustrating a more recent adoption of such opportunities. The majority of studies were evaluations of the impact of policies (n = 19), such as assessing changes to food labelling, food advertising or taxation on diet and obesity outcomes, or were built environment interventions (n = 17), such as the impact of built infrastructure on physical activity or access to healthy food. Research designs included quasi-experimental, pre-experimental and non-experimental methods. Few studies applied rigorous research designs to establish stronger causal inference, such as multiple pre/post measures, time series designs or comparison of change against an unexposed group. In general, researchers employed techniques to enhance the study utility but often were limited in the use of more rigorous study designs by ethical considerations and/or the particular context of the intervention.

Conclusion

Greater recognition of the utility and versatility of natural experiments in generating evidence for complex health issues like obesity prevention is needed. This review suggests that natural experiments may be underutilised as an approach for providing evidence of the effects of interventions, particularly for evaluating health outcomes of interventions when unexpected opportunities to gather evidence arise.

The relationship between joining a US free trade agreement and processed food sales, 2002-2016: a comparative interrupted time-series analysis

OBJECTIVE

To examine changes in sales of highly processed foods, including infant formulas, in countries joining free trade agreements (FTAs) with the US.

DESIGN

Annual country-level data for food and beverage sales come from Euromonitor International. Analyses are conducted in a comparative interrupted time-series (CITS) framework using multivariate random-effects linear models, adjusted for key confounders: gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, percent of the population living in urban areas and female labor force participation rate. Memberships in other FTAs and investment treaties are also explored as possible confounders.

SETTING

Changes are assessed between 2002 and 2016.

PARTICIPANTS

Ten countries joining US FTAs are compared with eleven countries without US FTAs in force; countries are matched on national income level, world region and World Trade Organization membership.

RESULTS

After countries join a US FTA, sales are estimated to increase by: 0·89 (95 % CI 0·16, 1·6; P = 0·016) kg per capita per annum for ultra-processed products, 0·81 (95 % CI 0·47, 1·1; P < 0·001) kg per capita per annum for processed culinary ingredients and 0·17 (95 % CI 0·052, 0·29; P = 0·005) kg per capita under age 5 per annum for baby food. No significant change is estimated for minimally processed foods. In statistical models, large unexplained variations in country-specific trends suggest additional unmeasured country-level factors also impact sales trends following entry into US FTAs.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings strongly support the conclusion that joining US FTAs can contribute to detrimental changes in national dietary consumption that increase population risk of non-communicable diseases.

Power asymmetries in global governance for health: a conceptual framework for analyzing the political-economic determinants of health inequities

Background

Recent scholarship has increasingly identified global power asymmetries as the root cause of health inequities. This article examines how such asymmetries manifest in global governance for health, and how this impacts health outcomes.

Results

We focus on the political-economic determinants of global health inequities, and how these determinants operate at different levels of social action (micro, meso, and macro) through distinct but interacting mechanisms. To clarify how these mechanisms operate, we develop an integrative framework for examining the links between global neoliberalism—the currently dominant policy paradigm premised on advancing the reach of markets and promoting ever-growing international economic integration—and global health inequities, and show how these mechanisms have macro–macro, macro–meso–macro, and macro–micro–macro manifestations.

Conclusions

Our approach enables the design of theoretically-nuanced empirical strategies to document the multiple ways in which the political economy entrenches or, alternatively, might ameliorate global health inequities.

International trade and the neoliberal diet in Central America and the Dominican Republic: Bringing social inequality to the center of analysis

Scholarship on international trade and health analyzes the effects of trade and investment policies on population exposure to non-nutritious foods. These policies are linked to the nutrition transition, or the dietary shift towards meat and processed foods associated with rising overweight and obesity rates in low- and middle-income countries. We argue for expanding the trade and health literature's focus on population exposure through the concept of the neoliberal diet, which centers subnational social inequality as both an outcome of neoliberal agri-food trade policies and a determinant of dietary change. We develop this perspective through a regional analysis of non-nutritious food availability following the implementation of the Dominican Republic-Central America Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA-DR), together with an extended case study, from the late 1990s to the present, of household expenditure and food price changes in the Dominican Republic, the region's largest food importer. Our analysis demonstrates that low-income consumers face increasing household food expenditures in a context of overall food price inflation, in addition to relatively higher price increases for healthy versus ultraprocessed foods. Neoliberal policies not only contribute to restructuring the availability and pricing of healthy food for low-income consumers, but they also exacerbate social inequality in the food system through corporate-controlled supply chains and farmer displacement. Our findings support policy proposals for socially distributive forms of healthy food production to stem the negative effects of the nutrition transition.

Environmental interventions to reduce the consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages and their effects on health

BACKGROUND

Frequent consumption of excess amounts of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSB) is a risk factor for obesity, type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease and dental caries. Environmental interventions, i.e. interventions that alter the physical or social environment in which individuals make beverage choices, have been advocated as a means to reduce the consumption of SSB.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the effects of environmental interventions (excluding taxation) on the consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages and sugar-sweetened milk, diet-related anthropometric measures and health outcomes, and on any reported unintended consequences or adverse outcomes.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched 11 general, specialist and regional databases from inception to 24 January 2018. We also searched trial registers, reference lists and citations, scanned websites of relevant organisations, and contacted study authors.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included studies on interventions implemented at an environmental level, reporting effects on direct or indirect measures of SSB intake, diet-related anthropometric measures and health outcomes, or any reported adverse outcome. We included randomised controlled trials (RCTs), non-randomised controlled trials (NRCTs), controlled before-after (CBA) and interrupted-time-series (ITS) studies, implemented in real-world settings with a combined length of intervention and follow-up of at least 12 weeks and at least 20 individuals in each of the intervention and control groups. We excluded studies in which participants were administered SSB as part of clinical trials, and multicomponent interventions which did not report SSB-specific outcome data. We excluded studies on the taxation of SSB, as these are the subject of a separate Cochrane Review.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two review authors independently screened studies for inclusion, extracted data and assessed the risks of bias of included studies. We classified interventions according to the NOURISHING framework, and synthesised results narratively and conducted meta-analyses for two outcomes relating to two intervention types. We assessed our confidence in the certainty of effect estimates with the GRADE framework as very low, low, moderate or high, and presented 'Summary of findings' tables.

MAIN RESULTS

We identified 14,488 unique records, and assessed 1030 in full text for eligibility. We found 58 studies meeting our inclusion criteria, including 22 RCTs, 3 NRCTs, 14 CBA studies, and 19 ITS studies, with a total of 1,180,096 participants. The median length of follow-up was 10 months. The studies included children, teenagers and adults, and were implemented in a variety of settings, including schools, retailing and food service establishments. We judged most studies to be at high or unclear risk of bias in at least one domain, and most studies used non-randomised designs. The studies examine a broad range of interventions, and we present results for these separately.Labelling interventions (8 studies): We found moderate-certainty evidence that traffic-light labelling is associated with decreasing sales of SSBs, and low-certainty evidence that nutritional rating score labelling is associated with decreasing sales of SSBs. For menu-board calorie labelling reported effects on SSB sales varied.Nutrition standards in public institutions (16 studies): We found low-certainty evidence that reduced availability of SSBs in schools is associated with decreased SSB consumption. We found very low-certainty evidence that improved availability of drinking water in schools and school fruit programmes are associated with decreased SSB consumption. Reported associations between improved availability of drinking water in schools and student body weight varied.Economic tools (7 studies): We found moderate-certainty evidence that price increases on SSBs are associated with decreasing SSB sales. For price discounts on low-calorie beverages reported effects on SSB sales varied.Whole food supply interventions (3 studies): Reported associations between voluntary industry initiatives to improve the whole food supply and SSB sales varied.Retail and food service interventions (7 studies): We found low-certainty evidence that healthier default beverages in children's menus in chain restaurants are associated with decreasing SSB sales, and moderate-certainty evidence that in-store promotion of healthier beverages in supermarkets is associated with decreasing SSB sales. We found very low-certainty evidence that urban planning restrictions on new fast-food restaurants and restrictions on the number of stores selling SSBs in remote communities are associated with decreasing SSB sales. Reported associations between promotion of healthier beverages in vending machines and SSB intake or sales varied.Intersectoral approaches (8 studies): We found moderate-certainty evidence that government food benefit programmes with restrictions on purchasing SSBs are associated with decreased SSB intake. For unrestricted food benefit programmes reported effects varied. We found moderate-certainty evidence that multicomponent community campaigns focused on SSBs are associated with decreasing SSB sales. Reported associations between trade and investment liberalisation and SSB sales varied.Home-based interventions (7 studies): We found moderate-certainty evidence that improved availability of low-calorie beverages in the home environment is associated with decreased SSB intake, and high-certainty evidence that it is associated with decreased body weight among adolescents with overweight or obesity and a high baseline consumption of SSBs.Adverse outcomes reported by studies, which may occur in some circumstances, included negative effects on revenue, compensatory SSB consumption outside school when the availability of SSBs in schools is reduced, reduced milk intake, stakeholder discontent, and increased total energy content of grocery purchases with price discounts on low-calorie beverages, among others. The certainty of evidence on adverse outcomes was low to very low for most outcomes.We analysed interventions targeting sugar-sweetened milk separately, and found low- to moderate-certainty evidence that emoticon labelling and small prizes for the selection of healthier beverages in elementary school cafeterias are associated with decreased consumption of sugar-sweetened milk. We found low-certainty evidence that improved placement of plain milk in school cafeterias is not associated with decreasing sugar-sweetened milk consumption.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

The evidence included in this review indicates that effective, scalable interventions addressing SSB consumption at a population level exist. Implementation should be accompanied by high-quality evaluations using appropriate study designs, with a particular focus on the long-term effects of approaches suitable for large-scale implementation.

A Scoping Review of Obesity among Indigenous Peoples in Canada

Indigenous populations in Canada are heavily affected by the burden of obesity, and certain communities, such as First Nations on reserve, are not included in the sampling framework of large national health surveys. A scoping review of ever published original research reporting obesity rates (body mass index ≥ 30), among adult Indigenous peoples in Canada, was conducted to identify studies that help close the Canadian Community Health Survey (CCHS) data gap for obesity prevalence in Indigenous populations in Canada and to make comparisons based on ethnicity, sex, time, and geography. First Nations on reserve with self-reported height and weight had higher rates of obesity (30%-51%) than First Nations off reserve (21%-42%) and non-Indigenous populations (12%-31%) in their respective province or territory, with the exception of Alberta, where rates in First Nations on reserve (30% and 36%) were lower or similar to those reported in First Nations off reserve (38%). First Nations on reserve with predominantly measured height and weight (42%-66%) had higher rates of obesity compared to Inuit in Quebec (28%), Nunavut (33%), and Newfoundland and Labrador (41%), while the rates were similar to those in Inuit in Northwest Territories (49%). Obesity in these large studies conducted among Inuit was based solely on measured height and weight. Studies in First Nations and Inuit alike showed higher prevalence of obesity in women, as well as an increase with time. No recent studies measured the obesity rates for First Nations in Yukon and Northwest Territories and for Métis living in settlements of Northern Alberta. Researchers are encouraged to conduct total diet studies in these regions, and to use existing data to analyze the associations between obesity, road access, latitude, food environment, and traditional food intake, to further inform community planning and development.

USMCA (NAFTA 2.0): tightening the constraints on the right to regulate for public health

Background

In late 2018 the United States, Canada, and Mexico signed a new trade agreement (most commonly referred to by its US-centric acronym, the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, or USMCA) to replace the 1994 North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). The new agreement is the first major trade treaty negotiated under the shadow of the Trump Administration’s unilateral imposition of tariffs to pressure other countries to accept provisions more favourable to protectionist US economic interests. Although not yet ratified, the agreement is widely seen as indicative of how the US will engage in future international trade negotiations.

Methods

Drawing from methods used in earlier health impact assessments of the Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement, we undertook a detailed analysis of USMCA chapters that have direct or indirect implications for health. We began with an initial reading of the entire agreement, followed by multiple line-by-line readings of key chapters. Secondary sources and inter-rater (comparative) analyses by the four authors were used to ensure rigour in our assessments.

Results

The USMCA expands intellectual property rights and regulatory constraints that will lead to increased drug costs, particularly in Canada and Mexico. It opens up markets in both Canada and Mexico for US food exports without reducing the subsidies the US provides to its own producers, and introduces a number of new regulatory reforms that weaken public health oversight of food safety. It reduces regulatory policy space through new provisions on ‘technical barriers to trade’ and requirements for greater regulatory coherence and harmonization across the three countries. It puts some limitations on contentious investor-state dispute provisions between the US and Mexico, provisions often used to challenge or chill health and environmental measures, and eliminates them completely in disputes between the US and Canada; but it allows for new ‘legacy claims’ for 3 years after the agreement enters into force. Its labour and environmental chapters contain a few improvements but overall do little to ensure either workers’ rights or environmental protection.

Conclusion

Rather than enhancing public health protection the USMCA places new, extended, and enforceable obligations on public regulators that increase the power (voice) of corporate (investor) interests during the development of new regulations. It is not a health-enhancing template for future trade agreements that governments should emulate.

Intake of Sugar-sweetened Beverages and Fecundability in a North American Preconception Cohort

BACKGROUND

Dietary factors, including sugar-sweetened beverages, may have adverse effects on fertility. Sugar-sweetened beverages were associated with poor semen quality in cross-sectional studies, and female soda intake has been associated with lower fecundability in some studies.

METHODS

We evaluated the association of female and male sugar-sweetened beverage intake with fecundability among 3,828 women planning pregnancy and 1,045 of their male partners in a North American prospective cohort study. We followed participants until pregnancy or for up to 12 menstrual cycles. Eligible women were aged 21-45 (male partners ≥21), attempting conception for ≤6 cycles, and not using fertility treatments. Participants completed a comprehensive baseline questionnaire, including questions on sugar-sweetened beverage consumption during the previous 4 weeks. We estimated time-to-pregnancy from follow-up questionnaires completed every 2 months by the female partner. We calculated adjusted fecundability ratios (FR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) according to intake of sugar- sweetened beverages using proportional probabilities regression.

RESULTS

Both female and male intakes of sugar-sweetened beverages were associated with reduced fecundability (FR = 0.81; 95% CI = 0.70, 0.94 and 0.78; 95% CI = 0.63, 0.95 for ≥7 sugar-sweetened beverages per week compared with none, for females and males, respectively). Fecundability was further reduced among those who drank ≥7 servings per week of sugar-sweetened sodas (FR = 0.75, 95% CI = 0.59, 0.95 for females and 0.67, 95% CI = 0.51, 0.89 for males).

CONCLUSIONS

Sugar-sweetened beverages, particularly sodas and energy drinks, were associated with lower fecundability, but diet soda and fruit juice had little association.

Impacts of Brexit on fruit and vegetable intake and cardiovascular disease in England: a modelling study

OBJECTIVES

To estimate the potential impacts of different Brexit trade policy scenarios on the price and intake of fruits and vegetables (F&V) and consequent cardiovascular disease (CVD) deaths in England between 2021 and 2030.

DESIGN

Economic and epidemiological modelling study with probabilistic sensitivity analysis.

SETTING

The model combined publicly available data on F&V trade, published estimates of UK-specific price elasticities, national survey data on F&V intake, estimates on the relationship between F&V intake and CVD from published meta-analyses and CVD mortality projections for 2021-2030.

PARTICIPANTS

English adults aged 25 years and older.

INTERVENTIONS

We modelled four potential post-Brexit trade scenarios: (1) free trading agreement with the EU and maintaining half of non-EU free trade partners; (2) free trading agreement with the EU but no trade deal with any non-EU countries; (3) no-deal Brexit; and (4) liberalised trade regime that eliminates all import tariffs.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Cumulative coronary heart disease and stroke deaths attributed to the different Brexit scenarios modelled between 2021 and 2030.

RESULTS

Under all Brexit scenarios modelled, prices of F&V would increase, especially for those highly dependent on imports. This would decrease intake of F&V between 2.5% (95% uncertainty interval: 1.9% to 3.1%) and 11.4% (9.5% to 14.2%) under the different scenarios. Our model suggests that a no-deal Brexit scenario would be the most harmful, generating approximately 12 400 (6690 to 23 390) extra CVD deaths between 2021 and 2030, whereas establishing a free trading agreement with the EU would have a lower impact on mortality, contributing approximately 5740 (2860 to 11 910) extra CVD deaths.

CONCLUSIONS

Trade policy under all modelled Brexit scenarios could increase price and decrease intake of F&V, generating substantial additional CVD mortality in England. The UK government should consider the population health implications of Brexit trade policy options, including changes to food systems.

Trade, investment and public health: compiling the evidence, assembling the arguments

Trade has long been an axiomatic characteristic of globalization, although international rules governing trade are of more recent vintage. Notably in the post-World War II period, an ever increasing number of countries began negotiating treaties to reduce, first, tariff barriers and, later, non-tariff barriers (government measures of any sort) that could impede the cross-border flow of goods. The rationale, in part, was that countries that became more entwined economically would be less likely to go to war with each other. It wouldn't be in their own economic interests to do so, or at least that of the firms based within their borders but engaged in transnational trade and dependent upon global supply chains. At first primarily an undertaking of developed (high-income) countries, developing (low and middle-income countries) slowly enjoined in what, in 1995, became the World Trade Organization. The WTO locked in scheduled declines in tariffs (border taxes), albeit with lesser obligations on developing country members (a problematic nomenclature given the vast geographic, economic, and development differences between such countries, but which nonetheless persists within the WTO). Importantly, a slew of new agreements that coincided with the establishment of the WTO also sought to liberalize trade in services (not just goods) (The General Agreement on Trade in Services), create new rules for agricultural trade (Agreement on Agriculture), expand intellectual property rights protections (The Agreement on Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights), limit trade-distorting government subsidies (Agreement on Subsidies and Countervailing Measures), and ensure that government food, health, or environmental regulations would not pose an unnecessary barrier to trade (the Technical Barriers to Trade and the Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures Agreements). Outside of the WTO system, bilateral or regional investment treaties granting special rights to foreign investors to sue governments for actions perceived to affect the value of their investment (such as direct expropriation or passage of new laws and regulations considered 'tantamount to expropriation') similarly exploded in number, dispute frequency, and the size of monetary claims. The breadth and depth of these post-1995 Agreements meant that few areas of general public health concern are potentially untouched.

Vegetable intake frequency is higher among the rural than among the urban or suburban residents, and is partially related to vegetable cultivation, receiving, and purchasing at farmers' markets: A cross-sectional study in a city within Gunma, Japan

Objectives: This study aimed at identifying the differences in the vegetable intake frequency among rural, suburban, and urban residents. It also intended to estimate the effects of vegetable cultivation, receiving vegetables, and purchasing vegetables at farmers' markets on the differences in vegetable intake frequency. Based on the results, to promote vegetable intake, we discuss the value of supporting vegetable cultivation in the rural areas. Materials and Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional study targeting residents aged between 20 and 74, living in three parts of a city within the Gunma prefecture in Japan. The three locations were selected to represent the rural, suburban, and urban areas. We mailed two sets of anonymous self-administered questionnaires to all households in the three areas (a total of 2,260 households, comprising about 1,000 people aged between 20 and 74 in each area). The survey requested information on the vegetable intake frequency, vegetable cultivation, frequency of receiving vegetables, frequency of vegetable purchase at farmers' markets, the subjective difficulty in food-store access, economic circumstances, health attitudes, and demographic characteristics. We used the analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) to examine the data obtained. Results: We received 873 responses (from 586 households), of which 90 were irrelevant, thus leaving a sample of 783 residents (257 rural, 259 suburban, 267 urban) available for statistical analysis. The results revealed that the rural residents had significantly greater vegetable intake frequency than the urban and suburban residents did. These regional differences became smaller after the adjustment of the following variables: vegetable cultivation, receiving vegetables, and vegetable purchase at farmers' markets. No significant difference was observed in the vegetable intake frequency between the rural and urban respondents after this adjustment was made. Conclusions: Vegetable intake frequency was higher in the rural area than in the suburban and urban areas. Vegetable cultivation, receiving vegetables, and vegetable purchase at farmers' markets were strongly linked to these regional differences.

Implications of Brexit on the effectiveness of the UK soft drinks industry levy upon CHD in England: a modelling study

OBJECTIVE

An industry levy on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSB) was implemented in the UK in 2018. One year later, Brexit is likely to change the UK trade regime with potential implications for sugar price. We modelled the effect of potential changes in sugar price due to Brexit on SSB levy impacts upon CHD mortality and inequalities.

DESIGN

We modelled a baseline SSB levy scenario; an SSB levy under 'soft' Brexit, where the UK establishes a free trading agreement with the EU; and an SSB levy under 'hard' Brexit, in which World Trade Organization tariffs are applied. We used the previously validated IMPACT Food Policy model and probabilistic sensitivity analysis to estimate the effect of each scenario on CHD deaths prevented or postponed and life-years gained, stratified by age, sex and socio-economic circumstance, in 2021.

SETTING

England.

SUBJECTS

Adults aged 25 years or older.

RESULTS

The SSB levy was associated with approximately 370 (95 % uncertainty interval 220, 560) fewer CHD deaths and 4490 (2690, 6710) life-years gained in 2021. Associated reductions in CHD mortality were 4 and 8 % greater under 'soft' and 'hard' Brexit scenarios, respectively. The SSB levy was associated with approximately 110 (50, 190) fewer CHD deaths in the most deprived quintile compared with 60 (20, 100) in the most affluent, under 'hard' Brexit.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study found the SSB levy resilient to potential effects of Brexit upon sugar price. Even under 'hard' Brexit, the SSB levy would yield benefits for CHD mortality and inequalities. Brexit negotiations should deliver a fiscal and regulatory environment which promotes population health.

Revisiting the Corporate and Commercial Determinants of Health

We trace the development of the concept of the corporate determinants of health. We argue that these determinants are predicated on the unchecked power of corporations and that the means by which corporations exert power is increasingly unseen. We identify four of the ways corporations influence health: defining the dominant narrative; setting the rules by which society, especially trade, operates; commodifying knowledge; and undermining political, social, and economic rights. We identify how public health professionals can respond to these manifestations of power.

Analyzing the impacts of global trade and investment on non-communicable diseases and risk factors: a critical review of methodological approaches used in quantitative analyses

Background

A key mechanism through which globalization has impacted health is the liberalization of trade and investment, yet relatively few studies to date have used quantitative methods to investigate the impacts of global trade and investment policies on non-communicable diseases and risk factors. Recent reviews of this literature have found heterogeneity in results and a range of quality across studies, which may be in part attributable to a lack of conceptual clarity and methodological inconsistencies.

Methods

This study is a critical review of methodological approaches used in the quantitative literature on global trade and investment and diet, tobacco, alcohol, and related health outcomes, with the objective of developing recommendations and providing resources to guide future robust, policy relevant research. A review of reviews, expert review, and reference tracing were employed to identify relevant studies, which were evaluated using a novel quality assessment tool designed for this research.

Results

Eight review articles and 34 quantitative studies were identified for inclusion. Important ways to improve this literature were identified and discussed: clearly defining exposures of interest and not conflating trade and investment; exploring mechanisms of broader relationships; increasing the use of individual-level data; ensuring consensus and consistency in key confounding variables; utilizing more sector-specific versus economy-wide trade and investment indicators; testing and adequately adjusting for autocorrelation and endogeneity when using longitudinal data; and presenting results from alternative statistical models and sensitivity analyses. To guide the development of future analyses, recommendations for international data sources for selected trade and investment indicators, as well as key gaps in the literature, are presented.

Conclusion

More methodologically rigorous and consistent approaches in future quantitative studies on the impacts of global trade and investment policies on non-communicable diseases and risk factors can help to resolve inconsistencies of existing research and generate useful information to guide policy decisions.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12992-018-0371-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

The Impact of U.S. Free Trade Agreements on Calorie Availability and Obesity: A Natural Experiment in Canada

INTRODUCTION

Globalization via free trade and investment agreements is often implicated in the obesity pandemic. Concerns center on how free trade and investment agreements increase population exposure to unhealthy, high-calorie diets, but existing studies preclude causal conclusions. Few studies of free trade and investment agreements and diets isolated their impact from confounding changes, and none examined any effect on caloric intake, despite its critical role in the etiology of obesity. This study addresses these limitations by analyzing a unique natural experiment arising from the exceptional circumstances surrounding the implementation of the 1989 Canada-U.S. Free Trade Agreement.

METHODS

Data from the UN (2017) were analyzed using fixed-effects regression models and the synthetic control method to estimate the impact of the Canada-U.S. Free Trade Agreement on calorie availability in Canada, 1978-2006, and coinciding increases in U.S. exports and investment in Canada's food and beverage sector. The impact of changes to calorie availability on body weights was then modeled.

RESULTS

Calorie availability increased by ≅170 kilocalories per capita per day in Canada after the Canada-U.S. Free Trade Agreement. There was a coinciding rise in U.S. trade and investment in the Canadian food and beverage sector. This rise in calorie availability is estimated to account for an average weight gain of between 1.8 kg and 12.2 kg in the Canadian population, depending on sex and physical activity levels.

CONCLUSIONS

The Canada-U.S. Free Trade Agreement was associated with a substantial rise in calorie availability in Canada. U.S. free trade and investment agreements can contribute to rising obesity and related diseases by pushing up caloric intake.

Does trade liberalization reduce child mortality in low- and middle-income countries? A synthetic control analysis of 36 policy experiments, 1963-2005

Scholars have long argued that trade liberalization leads to lower rates of child mortality in developing countries. Yet current scholarship precludes definitive conclusions about the magnitude and direction of this relationship. Here I analyze the impact of trade liberalization on child mortality in 36 low- and middle-income countries, 1963–2005, using the synthetic control method. I test the hypothesis that trade liberalization leads to lower rates of child mortality, examine whether this association varies between countries and over time, and explore the potentially modifying role of democratic politics, historical context, and geographic location on the magnitude and direction of this relationship. My analysis shows that, on average, trade liberalization had no impact on child mortality in low- and middle-income countries between 1963 and 2005 (Average effect (AE): −0.15%; 95% CI: −2.04%–2.18%). Yet the scale, direction and statistical significance of this association varied markedly, ranging from a ∼20% reduction in child mortality in Uruguay to a ∼20% increase in the Philippines compared with synthetic controls. Trade liberalization was also followed by the largest declines in child mortality in democracies (AE 10-years post reform (AE₁₀): −3.28%), in Latin America (AE₁₀: −4.15%) and in the 1970s (AE₁₀: −6.85%). My findings show that trade liberalization can create an opportunity for reducing rates of child mortality, but its effects cannot be guaranteed. Inclusive and pro-growth contextual factors appear to influence whether trade liberalization actually yields beneficial consequences in developing societies.

•

Impact of trade liberalization on child mortality is currently unclear.

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Analysis of this relationship using synthetic control method.

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There is no universal association between trade liberalization and child mortality.

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Impact of trade liberalization and child mortality varies substantially.

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Reductions in child mortality greatest in democracies, Latin America, and pre-1990.