Derivation and validation of a clinical model to predict death or cardiac hospitalizations while on the cardiac surgery waitlist

Outcomes following coronary artery bypass grafting with multiple arterial grafting by pump status in men and women

BACKGROUND

Multiple arterial grafting (MAG) and off-pump surgery are strategies proposed to improve outcomes with coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG). This study was conducted to determine the impact of off-pump surgery on outcomes after CABG with MAG in men and women.

METHODS

This cohort study used population-based data to identify all Ontarians undergoing isolated CABG with MAG between October 2008 and September 2019. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality. Secondary outcomes included major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events (MACCE; hospitalization for stroke, myocardial infarction hospitalization or heart failure, or repeat revascularization). Analysis used propensity-score overlap-weighted cause-specific Cox proportional hazard regression.

RESULTS

A total of 2989 women (1188 off-pump, 1801 on-pump) and 16,209 men (6065 off-pump, 10,144 on-pump) underwent MAG with a median follow-up of 5.0 years (interquartile range, 2.7-8.0) years. Compared to the on-pump approach, all-cause mortality was not changed with off-pump status (hazard ratio [HR] in women: 1.25 [95% CI, 0.83-1.88]; in men: 1.08 [95% CI, 0.85-1.37]). In women, the risk of MACCE was significantly higher off-pump (HR, 1.45; 95% CI, 1.04-2.03), with nonsignificantly increased risk observed for all component outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

In patients undergoing CABG with MAG, this population-based analysis found no association between pump status and survival in either men or women. However, it did suggest that off-pump MAG in women may be associated with an increased risk of MACCE.

Characterization of patients receiving surgical versus non-surgical treatment for infective endocarditis in West Virginia

BACKGROUND

Infective endocarditis (IE) has increased in rural states such as West Virginia (WV) with high injection drug use. IE is medically managed with antimicrobial treatment alone or combined with surgical treatment. This study aimed to characterize the predictors associated with surgical treatment and rates of inpatient mortality and readmission among IE patients in WV's rural centers.

METHODS

This retrospective review of electronic health records includes all adults hospitalized for IE at major rural tertiary cardiovascular centers in WV during 2014-2018. Descriptive statistics were presented on demographics, history of injection drug use, clinical characteristics, and hospital utilization by surgery status, and multivariable logistic regression examined the association of surgery with key predictor variables, generating odds ratios (OR).

RESULTS

Of the 780 patients with IE, 38% had surgery, with a 26-fold increase in patients undergoing surgery between 2014-2018. Comparing surgery and non-surgery patients revealed significant differences. Surgery patients were significantly younger (median age 35.6 vs. 40.5 years; p<0.001); had higher rates of drug use history (80% vs. 65%; p<0.001), psychiatric disorders (57% vs. 31%; p<0.001), and readmissions (18% vs.12%; p = 0.015). Surgery patients had lower rates of discharge against medical advice (11% vs.17%; p = 0.028) and in-hospital mortality (5% vs.12%; p<0.001). In the multivariable logistic regression, surgery was associated with injection drug use (OR: 1.9; 95% CI:1.09-3. 3), indications for surgery (OR: 1.68; 95% CI:1.48-1.91), left-sided IE (OR: 2.14; 95%CI:1.43-3.19) and later years (OR:3.75; 95%CI:2.5-5.72).

CONCLUSION

This study characterizes the predictors associated with surgical treatment and rates of inpatient mortality and readmission among IE patients across rural WV. The decision to perform cardiac surgery on IE patients is complex. Results with increased injection drug use-associated IE emphasize the importance of comprehensive care by a multidisciplinary team for optimal management of patients with IE.

Derivation and validation of pragmatic clinical models to predict hospital length of stay after cardiac surgery in Ontario, Canada: a population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

Cardiac surgery is resource intensive and often requires multidisciplinary involvement to facilitate discharge. To facilitate evidence-based resource planning, we derived and validated clinical models to predict postoperative hospital length of stay (LOS).

METHODS

We used linked, population-level databases with information on all Ontario residents and included patients aged 18 years or older who underwent coronary artery bypass grafting, valvular or thoracic aorta surgeries between October 2008 and September 2019. The primary outcome was hospital LOS. The models were derived by using patients who had surgery before Sept. 30, 2016, and validated after that date. To address the rightward skew in LOS data and to identify top-tier resource users, we used logistic regression to derive a model to predict the likelihood of LOS being more than the 98th percentile (> 30 d), and γ regression in the remainder to predict continuous LOS in days. We used backward stepwise variable selection for both models.

RESULTS

Among 105 193 patients, 2422 (2.3%) had an LOS of more than 30 days. Factors predicting prolonged LOS included age, female sex, procedure type and urgency, comorbidities including frailty, high-risk acute coronary syndrome, heart failure, reduced left ventricular ejection fraction and psychiatric and pulmonary circulatory disease. The C statistic was 0.92 for the prolonged LOS model and the mean absolute error was 2.4 days for the continuous LOS model.

INTERPRETATION

We derived and validated clinical models to identify top-tier resource users and predict continuous LOS with excellent accuracy. Our models could be used to benchmark clinical performance based on expected LOS, rationally allocate resources and support patient-centred operative decision-making.

Population study of sex-based outcomes after surgical aortic valve replacement

Background

Surgical aortic valve replacement (SAVR) is a key strategy for the treatment of aortic valve disease. However, studies have involved primarily male patients, and whether the benefits of this approach can be extrapolated to female patients is unclear.

Methods

Clinical and administrative datasets for 12,207 patients undergoing isolated SAVR in Ontario from 2008 to 2019 were linked. Male and female patients were balanced using inverse probability treatment weighting. Mortality, endocarditis, and major hemorrhagic and thrombotic events, as well as 2 composite outcomes-major adverse cerebral and cardiovascular events (MACCE) and patient-derived adverse cardiovascular and noncardiovascular events (PACE)-and their component events, were compared in the weighted groups with a stratified log-rank test.

Results

A total of 7485 male patients and 4722 female patients were included in the study. Median follow-up was 5.2 years in both sexes. All-cause mortality did not differ between sexes (hazard ratio [HR] 0.949 [95% confidence interval {CI} 0.851-1.059]). Male sex was associated with an increased risk of new-onset dialysis (HR 0.689 [95% CI 0.488-0.974]). Female sex was associated with a significantly increased risk of both new-onset heart failure (HR 1.211 [95% CI 1.051-1.394], P = 0.0081) and heart failure hospitalization (HR 1.200 [95% CI 1.036-1.390], P = 0.015). No statistically significant differences were seen in any of the other secondary outcomes between sexes.

Conclusions

This population health study demonstrated that survival did not differ between male and female patients undergoing SAVR. Significant sex-related differences were found in the risk of heart failure and new-onset dialysis, but these findings should be considered exploratory and require further study.

Perioperative Quality Initiative and Enhanced Recovery After Surgery-Cardiac Society Consensus Statement on the Management of Preoperative Anemia and Iron Deficiency in Adult Cardiac Surgery Patients

Preoperative anemia is common in patients presenting for cardiac surgery, with a prevalence of approximately 1 in 4, and has been associated with worse outcomes including increased risk of blood transfusion, kidney injury, stroke, infection, and death. Iron deficiency, a major cause of anemia, has also been shown to have an association with worse outcomes in patients undergoing cardiac surgery, even in the absence of anemia. Although recent guidelines have supported diagnosing and treating anemia and iron deficiency before elective surgery, details on when and how to screen and treat remain unclear. The Eighth Perioperative Quality Initiative (POQI 8) consensus conference, in conjunction with the Enhanced Recovery after Surgery-Cardiac Surgery Society, brought together an international, multidisciplinary team of experts to review and evaluate the literature on screening, diagnosing, and managing preoperative anemia and iron deficiency in patients undergoing cardiac surgery, and to provide evidence-based recommendations in accordance with Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) criteria for evaluating biomedical literature.

Stuck between a rock and a hard place: The clinical conundrum of managing cardiac surgical patients during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic

Deferring nonemergent cardiac surgery became the strategy of choice for several international healthcare systems afflicted by high case burdens of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS‐CoV‐2/COVID‐19) to both conserve valuable healthcare resources and protect patients from possible exposure. Missing from the available dataset to help guide policy development has been a clear understanding of the extent to which COVID‐19 infection modulates cardiac surgery outcomes. In their investigation, Bonalumi et al. uncovered an inpatient COVID‐19 positivity rate of almost 10 times higher than that of the general Italian population, as well as a mortality rate over 20 times higher amongst cardiac surgery patients with perioperative COVID‐19 infection compared to those COVID‐negative. While the summation of available evidence points to the serious consideration cardiac surgeons must give to delaying surgeries during the COVID‐19 pandemic, recognition must be given to the risks that postponing cardiac surgery may have on patient outcomes. Emerging data is beginning to demonstrate the efficacy of vaccination in preventing postoperative COVID‐19 infection and morbidity.