Provisional Validation of a Pediatric Early Warning Score for Resource-Limited Settings

Validation of the Emergency Department-Paediatric Early Warning Score (ED-PEWS) for use in low- and middle-income countries: A multicentre observational study

Early recognition of children at risk of serious illness is essential in preventing morbidity and mortality, particularly in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). This study aimed to validate the Emergency Department-Paediatric Early Warning Score (ED-PEWS) for use in acute care settings in LMICs. This observational study is based on previously collected clinical data from consecutive children attending four diverse settings in LMICs. Inclusion criteria and study periods (2010-2021) varied. We simulated the ED-PEWS, consisting of patient age, consciousness, work of breathing, respiratory rate, oxygen saturation, heart rate, and capillary refill time, based on the first available parameters. Discrimination was assessed by the area under the curve (AUC), sensitivity and specificity (previously defined cut-offs < 6 and ≥ 15). The outcome measure was for each setting a composite marker of high urgency. 41,917 visits from Gambia rural, 501 visits from Gambia urban, 2,608 visits from Suriname, and 1,682 visits from Tanzania were included. The proportion of high urgency was variable (range 4.6% to 24.9%). Performance ranged from AUC 0.80 (95%CI 0.70-0.89) in Gambia urban to 0.62 (95%CI 0.55-0.67) in Tanzania. The low-urgency cut-off showed a high sensitivity in all settings ranging from 0.83 (95%CI 0.81-0.84) to 1.00 (95%CI 0.97-1.00). The high-urgency cut-off showed a specificity ranging from 0.71 (95%CI 0.66-0.75) to 0.97 (95%CI 0.97-0.97). The ED-PEWS has a moderate to good performance for the recognition of high urgency children in these LMIC settings. The performance appears to have potential in improving the identification of high urgency children in LMICs.

A Prognostic Model for Critically Ill Children in Locations With Emerging Critical Care Capacity

OBJECTIVES

To develop a clinical prediction model to risk stratify children admitted to PICUs in locations with limited resources, and compare performance of the model to nine existing pediatric severity scores.

DESIGN

Retrospective, single-center, cohort study.

SETTING

PICU of a pediatric hospital in Siem Reap, northern Cambodia.

PATIENTS

Children between 28 days and 16 years old admitted nonelectively to the PICU.

INTERVENTIONS

None.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

Clinical and laboratory data recorded at the time of PICU admission were collected. The primary outcome was death during PICU admission. One thousand five hundred fifty consecutive nonelective PICU admissions were included, of which 97 died (6.3%). Most existing severity scores achieved comparable discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curves [AUCs], 0.71-0.76) but only three scores demonstrated moderate diagnostic utility for triaging admissions into high- and low-risk groups (positive likelihood ratios [PLRs], 2.65-2.97 and negative likelihood ratios [NLRs], 0.40-0.46). The newly derived model outperformed all existing severity scores (AUC, 0.84; 95% CI, 0.80-0.88; p < 0.001). Using one particular threshold, the model classified 13.0% of admissions as high risk, among which probability of mortality was almost ten-fold greater than admissions triaged as low-risk (PLR, 5.75; 95% CI, 4.57-7.23 and NLR, 0.47; 95% CI, 0.37-0.59). Decision curve analyses indicated that the model would be superior to all existing severity scores and could provide utility across the range of clinically plausible decision thresholds.

CONCLUSIONS

Existing pediatric severity scores have limited potential as risk stratification tools in resource-constrained PICUs. If validated, our prediction model would be a readily implementable mechanism to support triage of critically ill children at admission to PICU and could provide value across a variety of contexts where resource prioritization is important.

Identifying critically ill children in Malawi: A modified qSOFA score for low-resource settings

In low-resource settings, a reliable bedside score for timely identification of children at risk of dying, could help focus resources and improve survival. The rapid bedside Liverpool quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (LqSOFA) uses clinical parameters only and performed well in United Kingdom cohorts. A similarly quick clinical assessment-only score has however not yet been developed for paediatric populations in sub-Saharan Africa. In a development cohort of critically ill children in Malawi, we calculated the LqSOFA scores using age-adjusted heart rate and respiratory rate, capillary refill time and Blantyre Coma Scale, and evaluated its prognostic performance for mortality. An improved score, the Blantyre qSOFA (BqSOFA), was developed (omitting heart rate, adjusting respiratory rate cut-off values and adding pallor), subsequently validated in a second cohort of Malawian children, and compared with an existing score (FEAST-PET). Prognostic performance for mortality was evaluated using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Mortality was 15.4% in the development (N = 493) and 22.0% in the validation cohort (N = 377). In the development cohort, discriminative ability (AUC) of the LqSOFA to predict mortality was 0.68 (95%-CI: 0.60-0.76). The BqSOFA and FEAST-PET yielded AUCs of 0.84 (95%-CI:0.79-0.89) and 0.83 (95%-CI:0.77-0.89) in the development cohort, and 0.74 (95%-CI:0.68-0.79) and 0.76 (95%-CI:0.70-0.82) in the validation cohort, respectively. We developed a simple prognostic score for Malawian children based on four clinical parameters which performed as well as a more complex score. The BqSOFA might be used to promptly identify critically ill children at risk of dying and prioritize hospital care in low-resource settings.

Evaluating the Validity of the Responses to Illness Severity Quantification Score to Discriminate Illness Severity and Level of Care Transitions in Hospitalized Children with Severe Acute Malnutrition

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the validity of the Responses to Illness Severity Quantification (RISQ) score to discriminate illness severity and transitions between levels of care during hospitalization.

STUDY DESIGN

A prospective observational study conducted in Maiduguri, Nigeria, enrolled inpatients aged 1-59 months with severe acute malnutrition. The primary outcome was the RISQ score associated with the patient state. Heart and respiratory rate, oxygen saturation, respiratory effort, oxygen use, temperature, and level of consciousness are summed to calculate the RISQ score. Five states were defined by levels of care and hospital discharge outcome. The states were classified hierarchically, reflecting illness severity: hospital mortality was the most severe state, then intensive care unit (ICU), care in the stabilization phase (SP), care in the rehabilitation phase (RP), and lowest severity, survival at hospital discharge. A multistate statistical model examined performance of the RISQ score in predicting clinical states and transitions.

RESULTS

Of 903 children enrolled (mean age, 14.6 months), 63 (7%) died. Mean RISQ scores during care in each phase were 3.5 (n = 2265) in the ICU, 1.7 (n = 6301) in the SP, and 1.5 (n = 2377) in the RP. Mean scores and HRs for a 3-point change in score at transitions: ICU to death, 6.9 (HR, 1.80); SP to ICU, 2.8 (HR, 2.00); ICU to SP, 2.0 (HR, 0.5); and RP to discharge, 1.4 (HR, 0.91).

CONCLUSIONS

The RISQ score can discriminate between points of escalation or de-escalation of care and reflects illness severity in hospitalized children with severe acute malnutrition. Evaluation of clinical implementation and demonstration of benefit will be important before widespread adoption.

Predicting Clinical Deterioration and Mortality at Differing Stages During Hospitalization: A Systematic Review of Risk Prediction Models in Children in Low- and Middle-Income Countries

OBJECTIVE

To determine which risk prediction model best predicts clinical deterioration in children at different stages of hospital admission in low- and middle-income countries.

METHODS

For this systematic review, Embase and MEDLINE databases were searched, and Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines were followed. The key search terms were "development or validation study with risk-prediction model" AND "deterioration or mortality" AND "age 0-18 years" AND "hospital-setting: emergency department (ED), pediatric ward (PW), or pediatric intensive care unit (PICU)" AND "low- and middle-income countries." The Prediction Model Risk of Bias Assessment Tool was used by two independent authors. Forest plots were used to plot area under the curve according to hospital setting. Risk prediction models used in two or more studies were included in a meta-analysis.

RESULTS

We screened 9486 articles and selected 78 publications, including 67 unique predictive models comprising 1.5 million children. The best performing models individually were signs of inflammation in children that can kill (SICK) (ED), pediatric early warning signs resource limited settings (PEWS-RL) (PW), and Pediatric Index of Mortality (PIM) 3 as well as pediatric sequential organ failure assessment (pSOFA) (PICU). Best performing models after meta-analysis were SICK (ED), pSOFA and Pediatric Early Death Index for Africa (PEDIA)-immediate score (PW), and pediatric logistic organ dysfunction (PELOD) (PICU). There was a high risk of bias in all studies.

CONCLUSIONS

We identified risk prediction models that best estimate deterioration, although these risk prediction models are not routinely used in low- and middle-income countries. Future studies should focus on large scale external validation with strict methodological criteria of multiple risk prediction models as well as study the barriers in the way of implementation.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

PROSPERO International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews: Prospero ID: CRD42021210489.

A qualitative study of barriers and facilitators to pediatric early warning score (PEWS) implementation in a resource-limited setting

Objectives

Globally, pediatric hospitals have implemented Pediatric Early Warning Scores (PEWS) to standardize escalation of care and improve detection of clinical deterioration in pediatric patients. This study aims to utilize qualitative methodology to understand barriers and facilitators of PEWS implementation at Philippine Children's Medical Center (PCMC), a tertiary care hospital in Manila, Philippines.

Methods

Semi-structured interviews querying current processes for clinical monitoring, Pediatric Intensive Care Unit (PICU) transfer, and clinician attitudes towards PEWS implementation were audio recorded. In-person hospital observations served to triangulate interview findings. The Systems Engineering Initiative for Patient Safety (SEIPS) framework guided content coding of interviews to characterize work systems, processes, and outcomes related to patient monitoring and care escalation. Thematic coding was performed using Dedoose software. This model allowed identification of barriers and facilitators to PEWS implementation.

Results

Barriers within PCMC workflow included: limited bed capacity, delay in referral, patient overflow, limited monitoring equipment, and high patient to staff ratio. Facilitators of PEWS implementation included support for PEWS adaptation and existence of systems for vital sign monitoring. Observations by study personnel confirmed validity of themes.

Conclusion

Utilizing qualitative methodology to understand barriers and facilitators to PEWS in specific contexts can guide implementation at resource-limited hospitals.

Do paediatric early warning systems reduce mortality and critical deterioration events among children? A systematic review and meta-analysis

Aim

We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to answer the question: Does the implementation of Paediatric Early Warning Systems (PEWS) in the hospital setting reduce mortality, cardiopulmonary arrests, unplanned codes and critical deterioration events among children, as compared to usual care without PEWS?

Methods

We conducted a comprehensive search using Medline, EMBASE, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature and Web of Science. We included studies published between January 2006 and April 2022 on children <18 years old performed in inpatient units and emergency departments, and compared patient populations with PEWS to those without PEWS. We excluded studies without a comparator, case control studies, systematic reviews, and studies published in non-English languages. We employed a random effects meta-analysis and synthesised the risk and rate ratios from individual studies. We used the Scottish Intercollegiate Guidelines Network (SIGN) to appraise the risk of bias.

Results

Among 911 articles screened, 15 were included for descriptive analysis. Fourteen of the 15 studies were pre- versus post-implementation studies and one was a multi-centre cluster randomised controlled trial (RCT). Among 10 studies (580,604 hospital admissions) analysed for mortality, we found an increased risk (pooled RR 1.18, 95% CI 1.01–1.38, p = 0.036) in the group without PEWS compared to the group with PEWS. The sensitivity analysis performed without the RCT (436,065 hospital admissions) showed a non-significant relationship (pooled RR 1.17, 95% CI 0.98–1.40, p = 0.087). Among four studies (168,544 hospital admissions) analysed for unplanned code events, there was an increased risk in the group without PEWS (pooled RR 1.73, 95%CI 1.01–2.96, p = 0.046) There were no differences in the rate of cardiopulmonary arrests or critical deterioration events between groups. Our findings were limited by potential confounders and imprecision among included studies.

Conclusions

Healthcare systems that implemented PEWS were associated with reduced mortality and code rates. We recognise that these gains vary depending on resource availability and efferent response systems.

PROSPERO registration: CRD42021269579.

The impact of pediatric early warning score and rapid response algorithm training and implementation on interprofessional collaboration in a resource-limited setting

Introduction

Improved teamwork and communication have been associated with improved quality of care. Early Warning Scores (EWS) and rapid response algorithms are a way of identifying deteriorating patients and providing a common framework for communication and response between physicians and nurses. The impact of EWS implementation on interprofessional collaboration (IPC) has been minimally studied, especially in resource-limited settings.

Methods

The study took place in the Pediatric Department of the main academic referral hospital in Rwanda between April 2019 and January 2020. Pediatric nurses and residents were trained on the use of the Pediatric Warning Score for Resource-Limited Settings (PEWS-RL) and a rapid response algorithm. Training included vital sign collection, PEWS-RL calculation, IPC and rapid response algorithm implementation. Prior to training, participants completed surveys on IPC with Likert scale responses (from “strongly disagree” to “strongly agree”). Follow-up surveys were then administered nine months later and also included an open-response question on the impact of the PEWS-RL implementation on IPC.

Results

Sixty-five (96%) nurses were trained and completed the pre-survey and thirty-seven (54%) of the trained nurses completed the post-survey. Twenty-two (59%) pediatric residents were trained in the workshop and completed the pre-survey and twenty-four physicians (4 pediatricians (40%) and 20 pediatric residents (53%)) completed the post-implementation survey. There was a statistically significant increase in the percent of nurses indicating strong agreement across all domains of communication and collaboration from the pre- to the post-survey. Although the percent of physicians indicating strong agreement increased in the post-survey for all items, only the “share information” item was statistically significant.

Conclusion

Training and implementation of a PEWS-RL and a rapid response algorithm at a tertiary hospital in Rwanda resulted in significant improvement of nurse and physician ratings of IPC nine months later.

Development and an initial validation of the Responses to Illness Severity Quantification (RISQ) score for severely malnourished children

Aim

To develop and perform an initial validation of a score to measure the severity of illness in hospitalised children with severe acute malnutrition (SAM).

Methods

A prospective study enrolled SAM children aged 6–59 months hospitalised in Borno State, Nigeria. Candidate items associated with inpatient mortality were combined and evaluated as candidate scores. Clinical and statistical methods were used to identify a preferred score.

Results

The 513 children enrolled had a mean age of 15.6 months of whom 48 (9%) died. Seven of the 10 evaluated items were significantly associated with mortality. Five different candidate scores were tested. The final score, Responses to Illness Severity Quantification (RISQ), included seven items: heart rate, respiratory rate, respiratory effort, oxygen saturation, oxygen delivery, temperature and level of consciousness. The mean RISQ score on admission was 2.6 in hospital survivors and 7.3 for children dying <48 h. RISQ scores <24 h before death had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.93. The RISQ score performed similarly across differing clinical conditions with AUROCs 0.77–0.98 for all conditions except oedema.

Conclusion

The RISQ score can identify high‐risk malnourished children at and during hospital admission. Clinical application may help prioritise care and potentially improve survival.

Derivation and validation of a novel risk assessment tool to identify children aged 2–59 months at risk of hospitalised pneumonia-related mortality in 20 countries

Introduction

Existing risk assessment tools to identify children at risk of hospitalised pneumonia-related mortality have shown suboptimal discriminatory value during external validation. Our objective was to derive and validate a novel risk assessment tool to identify children aged 2–59 months at risk of hospitalised pneumonia-related mortality across various settings.

Methods

We used primary, baseline, patient-level data from 11 studies, including children evaluated for pneumonia in 20 low-income and middle-income countries. Patients with complete data were included in a logistic regression model to assess the association of candidate variables with the outcome hospitalised pneumonia-related mortality. Adjusted log coefficients were calculated for each candidate variable and assigned weighted points to derive the Pneumonia Research Partnership to Assess WHO Recommendations (PREPARE) risk assessment tool. We used bootstrapped selection with 200 repetitions to internally validate the PREPARE risk assessment tool.

Results

A total of 27 388 children were included in the analysis (mean age 14.0 months, pneumonia-related case fatality ratio 3.1%). The PREPARE risk assessment tool included patient age, sex, weight-for-age z-score, body temperature, respiratory rate, unconsciousness or decreased level of consciousness, convulsions, cyanosis and hypoxaemia at baseline. The PREPARE risk assessment tool had good discriminatory value when internally validated (area under the curve 0.83, 95% CI 0.81 to 0.84).

Conclusions

The PREPARE risk assessment tool had good discriminatory ability for identifying children at risk of hospitalised pneumonia-related mortality in a large, geographically diverse dataset. After external validation, this tool may be implemented in various settings to identify children at risk of hospitalised pneumonia-related mortality.

Performance of Modified Pediatric Early Warning Score in General Medical Conditions and Disease Subgroups

Numerous existing Pediatric Early Warning Scores (PEWs) have varying degrees of reliability and validity, which are used in variety diseases of patients. This study is a prospective diagnosis study which involved the pediatric nurse evaluation of patient status using modified Pediatric Early Warning Score (NU-PEWS) until the patient was discharged or transferred to PICU. A total of 824 pediatric patients were admitted, 407 participants were enrolled in this study. The NU-PEWS demonstrated the most accurate cut-off point at greater than 3, with 90.5% sensitivity and 89.1% specificity. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) indicated positive results in the general medical condition (ROC 0.958), gastrointestinal, respiratory, and hematologic diseases (ROC 0.94-0.97) whereas lowest in neurological disease (ROC 0.843). This study validated that NU-PEWS has good performance in detecting deteriorating patients, and that prediction utilizations are good in almost every subgroup of disease, with the exception of neurological disease.

Implementation of a pediatric early warning score tool in a pediatric oncology Ward in Palestine

Background

Pediatric Early Warning Scores (PEWS) are nurse-administered clinical assessment tools utilizing vital signs and patient signs and symptoms to screen for patients at risk for clinical deterioration.^1–3 When utilizing a PEWS system, which consists of an escalation algorithm to alert physicians of high risk patients requiring a bedside evaluation and assessment, studies have demonstrated that PEWS systems can decrease pediatric intensive care (PICU) utilization, in-hospital cardiac arrests, and overall decreased mortality in high income settings. Yet, many hospital based settings in low and lower middle income countries (LMIC) lack systems in place for early identification of patients at risk for clinical deterioration.

Methods

A contextually adapted 16-h pediatric resuscitation program included training of a PEWS tool followed by implementation and integration of a PEWS system in a pediatric hematology/oncology ward in Beit Jala, Palestine. Four PDSA cycles were implemented post-implementation to improve uptake and scoring of PEWS which included PEWS tool integration into an existing electronic medical record (EMR), escalation algorithm and job aid implementation, data audits and ward feedback.

Results

Frequency of complete PEWS vital sign documentation reached a mean of 89.9%. The frequency and accuracy of PEWS scores steadily increased during the post-implementation period, consistently above 89% in both categories starting from data audit four and continuing thereafter. Accuracy of PEWS scoring was unable to be assessed during week 1 and 2 of data audits due to challenges with PEWS integration into the existing EMR (PDSA cycle 1) which were resolved by the 3rd week of data auditing (PDSA cycle 2).

Conclusions

Implementation of a PEWS scoring tool in an LMIC pediatric oncology inpatient unit is feasible and can improve frequency of vital sign collection and generate accurate PEWS scores.

Contribution to the literature

This study demonstrates how to effectively implement a PEWS scoring tool into an LMIC clinical setting.

This study demonstrates how to utilize a robust feedback mechanism to ensure a quality program uptake.

This study demonstrates an effective international partnership model that other institutions may utilize for implementation science.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12913-021-07157-x.

Reliability and validity of a Spanish-language measure assessing clinical capacity to sustain Paediatric Early Warning Systems (PEWS) in resource-limited hospitals

BACKGROUND

Paediatric Early Warning Systems (PEWSs) improve identification of deterioration, however, their sustainability has not been studied. Sustainability is critical to maximise impact of interventions like PEWS, particularly in low-resource settings. This study establishes the reliability and validity of a Spanish-language Clinical Sustainability Assessment Tool (CSAT) to assess clinical capacity to sustain interventions in resource-limited hospitals.

METHODS

Participants included PEWS implementation leadership teams of 29 paediatric cancer centres in Latin America involved in a collaborative to implement PEWS. The CSAT, a sustainability assessment tool validated in high-resource settings, was translated into Spanish and distributed to participants as an anonymous electronic survey. Psychometric, confirmatory factor analysis (CFA), and multivariate analyses were preformed to assess reliability, structure and initial validity. Focus groups were conducted after participants reviewed CSAT reports to assess their interpretation and utility.

RESULTS

The CSAT survey achieved an 80% response rate (n=169) with a mean score of 4.4 (of 5; 3.8-4.8 among centres). The CSAT had good reliability with an average internal consistency of 0.77 (95% CI 0.71 to 0.81); and CFAs supported the seven-domain structure. CSAT results were associated with respondents' perceptions of the evidence for PEWS, its implementation and use in their centre, and their assessment of the hospital culture and implementation climate. The mean CSAT score was higher among respondents at centres with longer time using PEWS (p<0.001). Focus group participants noted the CSAT report helped assess their centre's clinical capacity to sustain PEWS and provided constructive feedback for improvement.

CONCLUSIONS

We present information supporting the reliability and validity of the CSAT tool, the first Spanish-language instrument to assess clinical capacity to sustain evidence-based interventions in hospitals of variable resource levels. This assessment demonstrates a high capacity to sustain PEWS in these resource-limited centres with improvement over time from PEWS implementation.

Impact of PEWS on Perceived Quality of Care During Deterioration in Children With Cancer Hospitalized in Different Resource-Settings

Background

Children with cancer are at high risk for clinical deterioration and subsequent mortality. Pediatric Early Warning Systems (PEWS) have proven to reduce the frequency of clinical deterioration in hospitalized patients. This qualitative study evaluates provider perspectives on the impact of PEWS on quality of care during deterioration events in a high-resource and a resource-limited setting.

Methods

We conducted semi-structured interviews with 83 healthcare staff (nurses, pediatricians, oncology fellows, and intensivists) involved in recent deterioration events at two pediatric oncology hospitals of different resource levels: St. Jude Children’s Research Hospital (SJCRH; n = 42) and Unidad Nacional de Oncología Pediátrica (UNOP; n = 41). Interviews were conducted in the participant’s native language (English or Spanish), translated into English, and transcribed. Transcripts were coded and analyzed inductively.

Results

Providers discussed both positive and negative perspectives of clinical deterioration events. Content analysis revealed “teamwork,” “experience with deterioration,” “early awareness,” and “effective communication” as themes associated with positive perception of events, which contributed to patient safety. Negative themes included “lack of communication,” “inexperience with deterioration,” “challenges with technology”, “limited material resources,” “false positive score,” and “objective tool.” Participants representing all disciplines across both institutions shared similar positive opinions. Negative opinions, however, differed between the two institutions, with providers at UNOP highlighting limited resources while those at SJCRH expressing concerns about technology misuse.

Conclusion

Providers that care for children with cancer find PEWS valuable to improve the quality of hospital care, regardless of hospital resource-level. Identified challenges, including inadequate critical care resources and challenges with technology, differ by hospital resource-level. These findings build on growing data demonstrating the positive impact of PEWS on quality of care and encourage wide dissemination of PEWS in clinical practice.

Evolution of a Bidirectional Pediatric Critical Care Educational Partnership in a Resource-Limited Setting

Introduction: Children in resource-limited settings are disproportionately affected by common childhood illnesses, resulting in high rates of mortality. A major barrier to improving child health in such regions is limited pediatric-specific training, particularly in the care of children with critical illness. While global health rotations for trainees from North America and Europe have become commonplace, residency and fellowship programs struggle to ensure that these rotations are mutually beneficial and do not place an undue burden on host countries. We created a bidirectional, multimodal educational program between trainees in Manila, Philippines, and Baltimore, Maryland, United States, to improve the longitudinal educational experience for all participants. Program Components: Based on stakeholder input and a needs assessment, we established a global health training program in which pediatricians from the Philippines traveled to the United States for observerships, and pediatric residents from a tertiary care center in Baltimore traveled to Manila. Additionally, we created and implemented a contextualized simulation-based shock curriculum for pediatric trainees in Manila that can be disseminated locally. This bidirectional program was adapted to include telemedicine and regularly scheduled "virtual rounds" and educational case conferences during the COVID-19 pandemic. Providers from the two institutions have collaborated on educational and clinical research projects, offering opportunities for resource sharing, bidirectional professional development, and institutional improvements. Conclusion: Although creating a mutually beneficial global health partnership requires careful planning and investment over time, establishment of a successful bidirectional educational and professional development program in a limited-resource setting is feasible and benefits learners in both countries.

Implementation of a Pediatric Early Warning Score to Improve Communication and Nursing Empowerment in a Rural District Hospital in Rwanda

Implementation of the Pediatric Early Warning Score for Resource-Limited Settings tool improved nurses’ competency and confidence in their triage capabilities. This tool has the potential to improve patient outcomes. However, staff turnover and limited physician buy-in were barriers to sustainability of the tool in low-resource settings.

Background:

Pediatric early warning (PEW) scores represent a “track-and-trigger system” that identifies clinical deterioration in a patient’s condition in the hours preceding a sentinel event. Before implementation, nurses reported feeling unprepared to identify and advocate for acutely ill patients owing to a lack of skills, vocabulary, and agency. We implemented a Pediatric Early Warning Score for Resource-Limited Settings (PEWS-RL) with nurses in a rural district hospital in Rwanda. Although PEW scores can improve clinical outcomes, empowering nurses in resource-limited settings to discuss patient acuity with physicians is a critical first step. Our primary aims were to train nurses to obtain more accurate vital signs and assess their importance as early warning signs of clinical deterioration and use PEW scores to improve communication between nurses and physicians.

Implementation:

The PEWS-RL tool implementation began with a training program that was created through discussions with nurses, physicians, and the medical director of the hospital. The program included lectures and application of learned skills through direct clinical mentorship of nurses, as well as training of physicians regarding PEWS-RL as a communication tool.

Evaluation:

The PEWS-RL protocol was evaluated based on pre- and post-tests to assess improvement in nurses’ knowledge and skill, as well as skills assessments of accurate recognition of clinical deterioration. All 6 nurses passed skill testing with >80% accuracy. Nurses’ feelings of empowerment to advocate for patients and to escalate care were assessed through pre- and post-training interviews. Nurses described increased confidence in calling for physician support.

Discussion:

Implementation of PEW scores increased nurses’ technical skills and feelings of confidence and empowerment; however, the low-resource setting presented major challenges. Barriers to sustainable implementation include the rapid ward staff turnover as well as limited physician buy-in. Nevertheless, the PEWS-RL tool has the potential to empower nurses and improve patient outcomes if fully embraced by staff.

Identifying Infants and Young Children at Risk of Unplanned Hospital Admissions and Clinic Visits in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania

BACKGROUND

Pediatric inpatient mortality rates are as high as 11% in parts of sub-Saharan Africa. Unscheduled clinic visits also burden children in sub-Saharan Africa. Our objective was to identify factors associated with hospital admissions and unscheduled clinic visits among Tanzanian children < 24 months of age.

METHODS

We conducted a secondary analysis of 2 trials conducted in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. We performed univariate and Poisson multivariable regression analyses to identify factors associated with hospital admissions and unscheduled clinic visits.

RESULTS

Of 4784 children < 24 months of age, 293 (6.1%) were hospitalized at least once and 1308 (27.3%) had ≥ 1 unscheduled clinic visit. Infants and children who were exposed to but HIV-negative had increased risk of hospital admission [adjusted risk ratios (aRR): 3.67; 95% CI: 2.45-5.50; P < 0.001] compared with HIV-unexposed children. Those who were HIV-positive had even higher risk of hospital admission compared with those not exposed to HIV (aRR: 10.87; 95% CI: 7.01-16.89; P < 0.001). Birth weight and breast-feeding status were not associated with increased risk of hospital admission. Children with Apgar scores < 7 (aRR: 1.32; 95% CI: 1.03-1.69; P = 0.001), not exclusively breast-fed up to 6 months of age (aRR: 1.34; 95% CI: 1.12-1.60; P = 0.001), and who were HIV-exposed and HIV-negative (aRR: 2.35; 95% CI: 2.08-2.66; P < 0.001) or HIV-positive (aRR: 3.02; 95% CI: 2.52-3.61; P < 0.001) had higher risk of unscheduled clinic visits.

CONCLUSIONS

Exposure to HIV and being HIV-positive were associated with the greatest risk for hospital admission and unplanned clinic visits among infants and children in Tanzania. Targeting these vulnerable populations in interventional studies may reduce morbidity.

Prognostic models for predicting in-hospital paediatric mortality in resource-limited countries: a systematic review

OBJECTIVES

To identify and appraise the methodological rigour of multivariable prognostic models predicting in-hospital paediatric mortality in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs).

DESIGN

Systematic review of peer-reviewed journals.

DATA SOURCES

MEDLINE, CINAHL, Google Scholar and Web of Science electronic databases since inception to August 2019.

ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA

We included model development studies predicting in-hospital paediatric mortality in LMIC.

DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS

This systematic review followed the Checklist for critical Appraisal and data extraction for systematic Reviews of prediction Modelling Studies framework. The risk of bias assessment was conducted using Prediction model Risk of Bias Assessment Tool (PROBAST). No quantitative summary was conducted due to substantial heterogeneity that was observed after assessing the studies included.

RESULTS

Our search strategy identified a total of 4054 unique articles. Among these, 3545 articles were excluded after review of titles and abstracts as they covered non-relevant topics. Full texts of 509 articles were screened for eligibility, of which 15 studies reporting 21 models met the eligibility criteria. Based on the PROBAST tool, risk of bias was assessed in four domains; participant, predictors, outcome and analyses. The domain of statistical analyses was the main area of concern where none of the included models was judged to be of low risk of bias.

CONCLUSION

This review identified 21 models predicting in-hospital paediatric mortality in LMIC. However, most reports characterising these models are of poor quality when judged against recent reporting standards due to a high risk of bias. Future studies should adhere to standardised methodological criteria and progress from identifying new risk scores to validating or adapting existing scores.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42018088599.

Performance of Pediatric Mortality Prediction Models in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

OBJECTIVE

To describe the performance of prognostic models for mortality or clinical deterioration events among hospitalized children developed or validated in low- and middle-income countries.

STUDY DESIGN

A medical librarian systematically searched EMBASE, Ovid Medline, Scopus, Cochrane Library, EBSCO Global Health, LILACS, African Index Medicus, African Journals Online, African Healthline, Med-Carib, and Global Index Medicus (from 2000 to October 2019). We included citations that described the development or validation of a pediatric prognostic model for hospital mortality or clinical deterioration events in low- and middle-income countries. In duplicate and independently, we extracted data on included populations and model prognostic performance and evaluated risk of bias using the Prediction model Risk Of Bias Assessment Tool.

RESULTS

Of 41 279 unique citations, we included 15 studies describing 15 prognostic models for mortality and 3 models for clinical deterioration events. Six models were validated in >1 external cohort. The Lambarene Organ Dysfunction Score (0.85 [0.77-0.92]) and Signs of Inflammation in Children that Kill (0.85 [0.82-0.88]) had the highest summary C-statistics (95% CI) for discrimination. Calibration and classification measures were poorly reported. All models were at high risk of bias owing to inappropriate selection of predictor variables and handling of missing data and incomplete performance measure reporting.

CONCLUSIONS

Several prognostic models for mortality and clinical deterioration events have been validated in single cohorts, with good discrimination. Rigorous validation that conforms to current standards for prediction model studies and updating of existing models are needed before clinical implementation.

Risk factors for mortality among Tanzanian infants and children

BACKGROUND

During the era of the Millennium Development Goals, under 5 mortality rates decreased significantly worldwide; however, reductions were not equally distributed. Children in sub-Saharan Africa still account for more than 50% of the world's annual childhood deaths among children under 5 years of age. Understanding upstream risk factors for mortality among children may reduce the large burden of childhood mortality in sub-Saharan Africa. Our objective was to identify risk factors for mortality among infants and children in Tanzania.

METHODS

We conducted a secondary analysis of data pooled from two randomized-controlled micronutrient supplementation trials. A total of 4787 infants were enrolled in the two trials (n = 2387 HIV-exposed and n = 2400 HIV-unexposed). Predictors of mortality were assessed using unadjusted and adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs).

RESULTS

There were 307 total deaths, 262 (11%) among children who were HIV-exposed and 45 (2%) among children who were HIV-unexposed (P < 0.001). The most common cause of death was respiratory diseases (n = 109, 35.5%). Causes of death did not significantly differ between HIV-exposed and HIV-unexposed children. In adjusted regression analyses, children with birth weight <2500 g (aHR 1.75, 95% CI 1.21-2.54), Apgar score of ≤7 at 5 min (aHR 2.16, 95% CI 1.29-3.62), or who were HIV-exposed but not infected (aHR 3.35, 95% CI 2.12-5.28) or HIV-infected (aHR 27.56, 95% CI 17.43-43.58) had greater risk of mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Infection with HIV, low birthweight, or low Apgar scores were associated with higher mortality risk. Early identification and modification of determinants of mortality among infants and children may be the first step to reducing such deaths.