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Ménesguen A, Lacroix G. Modelling the marine eutrophication: A review. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2018; 636:339-354. [PMID: 29709851 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.04.183] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/20/2017] [Revised: 04/13/2018] [Accepted: 04/13/2018] [Indexed: 06/08/2023]
Abstract
In the frame of a national, joint scientific appraisal, 45 scientific French-speaking experts have been mandated in 2015-2016 by the French ministries of Environment and Agriculture to perform a global review of scientific literature dealing with the eutrophication phenomenon, in freshwater as well as in marine waters. This paper summarizes the main results of this review restricted to a sub-domain, the modelling approach of the marine eutrophication. After recalling the different aims pursued, an overview is given on the historical time course of this modelling effort, its world distribution and the various tools used. Then, the main results obtained are examined, highlighting the specific strengths and weaknesses of the present models. Needs for future improvement are then listed.
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Affiliation(s)
- Alain Ménesguen
- Department of Coastal Environment Dynamics (DYNECO), French Research Institute for the Exploitation of the Sea (IFREMER), Centre de Bretagne, B.P. 70, 29280 Plouzané, France.
| | - Geneviève Lacroix
- Royal Belgian Institute of Natural Sciences (RBINS), Operational Directorate Natural Environments (OD Nature), Gulledelle 100, 1200 Brussels, Belgium
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Rossberg AG, Uusitalo L, Berg T, Zaiko A, Chenuil A, Uyarra MC, Borja A, Lynam CP. Quantitative criteria for choosing targets and indicators for sustainable use of ecosystems. ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS 2017; 72:215-224. [PMID: 28149199 PMCID: PMC5268354 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2016.08.005] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/12/2015] [Revised: 08/04/2016] [Accepted: 08/06/2016] [Indexed: 06/06/2023]
Abstract
Wide-ranging, indicator-based assessments of large, complex ecosystems are playing an increasing role in guiding environmental policy and management. An example is the EU's Marine Strategy Framework Directive, which requires Member States to take measures to reach "good environmental status" (GES) in European marine waters. However, formulation of indicator targets consistent with the Directive's high-level policy goal of sustainable use has proven challenging. We develop a specific, quantitative interpretation of the concepts of GES and sustainable use in terms of indicators and associated targets, by sharply distinguishing between current uses to satisfy current societal needs and preferences, and unknown future uses. We argue that consistent targets to safeguard future uses derive from a requirement that any environmental state indicator should recover within a defined time (e.g. 30 years) to its pressure-free range of variation when all pressures are hypothetically removed. Within these constraints, specific targets for current uses should be set. Routes to implementation of this proposal for indicators of fish-community size structure, population size of selected species, eutrophication, impacts of non-indigenous species, and genetic diversity are discussed. Important policy implications are that (a) indicator target ranges, which may be wider than natural ranges, systematically and rationally derive from our proposal; (b) because relevant state indicators tend to respond slowly, corresponding pressures should also be monitored and assessed;
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Affiliation(s)
- Axel G. Rossberg
- Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science (Cefas), Pakefield Road, Lowestoft NR33 0HT, UK and School of Biological and Chemical Sciences, Queen Mary University of London, 327 Mile End Rd, London E1, UK
| | - Laura Uusitalo
- Marine Research Centre, Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE). Mechelininkatu 34a, P.O. Box 140, FI-00251 Helsinki, Finland
| | - Torsten Berg
- MariLim Aquatic Research GmbH, Heinrich-Wöhlk-Straße 14, 24232 Schönkirchen, Germany
| | - Anastasija Zaiko
- Marine Science and Technology Center, Klaipeda University, H. Manto 84, LT 92294, Klaipeda, Lithuania
| | - Anne Chenuil
- Aix-Marseille Univ, Univ Avignon, CNRS, IRD, IMBE, Marseille, France
| | - María C. Uyarra
- AZTI-Tecnalia, Herrera Kaia, Portualdea s/n, 20100 Pasaia, Spain
| | - Angel Borja
- AZTI-Tecnalia, Herrera Kaia, Portualdea s/n, 20100 Pasaia, Spain
| | - Christopher P. Lynam
- Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science (Cefas), Pakefield Road, Lowestoft NR33 0HT, UK
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Meier HEM, Andersson HC, Arheimer B, Donnelly C, Eilola K, Gustafsson BG, Kotwicki L, Neset TS, Niiranen S, Piwowarczyk J, Savchuk OP, Schenk F, Węsławski JM, Zorita E. Ensemble modeling of the Baltic Sea ecosystem to provide scenarios for management. AMBIO 2014; 43:37-48. [PMID: 24414803 PMCID: PMC3888662 DOI: 10.1007/s13280-013-0475-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/05/2023]
Abstract
We present a multi-model ensemble study for the Baltic Sea, and investigate the combined impact of changing climate, external nutrient supply, and fisheries on the marine ecosystem. The applied regional climate system model contains state-of-the-art component models for the atmosphere, sea ice, ocean, land surface, terrestrial and marine biogeochemistry, and marine food-web. Time-dependent scenario simulations for the period 1960-2100 are performed and uncertainties of future projections are estimated. In addition, reconstructions since 1850 are carried out to evaluate the models sensitivity to external stressors on long time scales. Information from scenario simulations are used to support decision-makers and stakeholders and to raise awareness of climate change, environmental problems, and possible abatement strategies among the general public using geovisualization. It is concluded that the study results are relevant for the Baltic Sea Action Plan of the Helsinki Commission.
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Affiliation(s)
- H. E. Markus Meier
- Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, 601 76 Norrköping, Sweden
| | - Helén C. Andersson
- Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, 601 76 Norrköping, Sweden
| | - Berit Arheimer
- Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, 601 76 Norrköping, Sweden
| | - Chantal Donnelly
- Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, 601 76 Norrköping, Sweden
| | - Kari Eilola
- Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, 426 71 Västra Frölunda, Sweden
| | - Bo G. Gustafsson
- Baltic Nest Institute, Stockholm University, 106 91 Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Lech Kotwicki
- Department of Marine Ecology, Institute of Oceanology, Polish Academy of Sciences, 55 Powstancow Warszawy Street, 81-712 Sopot, Poland
| | - Tina-Simone Neset
- Centre for Climate Science and Policy Research, Department of Water and Environmental Studies, Linköping University, 601 74 Norrköping, Sweden
| | - Susa Niiranen
- Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, 106 91 Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Joanna Piwowarczyk
- Department of Marine Ecology, Institute of Oceanology, Polish Academy of Sciences, 55 Powstancow Warszawy Street, 81-712 Sopot, Poland
| | - Oleg P. Savchuk
- Baltic Nest Institute, Stockholm University, 106 91 Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Frederik Schenk
- Institute of Coastal Research, Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Max-Planck-Str. 1, 21481 Geesthacht, Germany
| | - Jan Marcin Węsławski
- Department of Marine Ecology, Institute of Oceanology, Polish Academy of Sciences, 55 Powstancow Warszawy Street, 81-712 Sopot, Poland
| | - Eduardo Zorita
- Institute of Coastal Research, Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, 21502 Geeshacht, Germany
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Comparing model scenarios of variable plankton N/P ratio versus the constant one for the application in the Baltic Sea. Ecol Modell 2014. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2013.09.018] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/20/2022]
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Comparison of two light attenuation parameterization focusing on timing of spring bloom and primary production in the Baltic Sea. Ecol Modell 2013. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2013.03.010] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022]
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Ruoho-Airola T, Eilola K, Savchuk OP, Parviainen M, Tarvainen V. Atmospheric nutrient input to the Baltic sea from 1850 to 2006: a reconstruction from modeling results and historical data. AMBIO 2012; 41:549-57. [PMID: 22926878 PMCID: PMC3428486 DOI: 10.1007/s13280-012-0319-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/03/2023]
Abstract
In this study, a consistent basin-wise monthly time series of the atmospheric nutrient load to the Baltic Sea during 1850-2006 was compiled. Due to the lack of a long time series (1850-1960) of nutrient deposition to the Baltic Sea, the data set was compiled by combining a time series of deposition data at the Baltic Nest Institute from 1970 to 2006, published historical monitoring data and deposition estimates, as well as recent modeled Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) emission estimates. The procedure for nitrogen compounds included estimation of the deposition in a few intermediate reference years, linear interpolation between them, and the decomposition of annual deposition into a seasonal deposition pattern. As no reliable monitoring results were found for the atmospheric deposition of phosphorus during the early period of our study, we used published estimates for the temporal and spatial pattern of the phosphorus load.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tuija Ruoho-Airola
- />Air Quality Research, Finnish Meteorological Institute, P.O. Box 503, 00101 Helsinki, Finland
| | - Kari Eilola
- />Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Sven Källfelts gata 15, 426 71 V Frölunda, Sweden
| | - Oleg P. Savchuk
- />Baltic Nest Institute, Stockholm University, 106 91 Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Maija Parviainen
- />Air Quality Research, Finnish Meteorological Institute, P.O. Box 503, 00101 Helsinki, Finland
| | - Virpi Tarvainen
- />Air Quality Research, Finnish Meteorological Institute, P.O. Box 503, 00101 Helsinki, Finland
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Eilola K, Rosell EA, Dieterich C, Fransner F, Höglund A, Meier HEM. Modeling nutrient transports and exchanges of nutrients between shallow regions and the open Baltic sea in present and future climate. AMBIO 2012; 41:586-599. [PMID: 22926881 PMCID: PMC3428478 DOI: 10.1007/s13280-012-0322-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/28/2023]
Abstract
We quantified horizontal transport patterns and the net exchange of nutrients between shallow regions and the open sea in the Baltic proper. A coupled biogeochemical-physical circulation model was used for transient simulations 1961-2100. The model was driven by regional downscaling of the IPCC climate change scenario A1B from two global General Circulation Models in combination with two nutrient load scenarios. Modeled nutrient transports followed mainly the large-scale internal water circulation and showed only small circulation changes in the future projections. The internal nutrient cycling and exchanges between shallow and deeper waters became intensified, and the internal removal of phosphorus became weaker in the warmer future climate. These effects counteracted the impact from nutrient load reductions according to the Baltic Sea Action Plan. The net effect of climate change and nutrient reductions was an increased net import of dissolved inorganic phosphorus to shallow areas in the Baltic proper.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kari Eilola
- />Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Sven Källfelts gata 15, 426 71 V Frölunda, Sweden
| | - Elin Almroth Rosell
- />Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Sven Källfelts gata 15, 426 71 V Frölunda, Sweden
| | - Christian Dieterich
- />Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, 601 76 Norrköping, Sweden
| | - Filippa Fransner
- />Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, 601 76 Norrköping, Sweden
| | - Anders Höglund
- />Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, 601 76 Norrköping, Sweden
| | - H. E. Markus Meier
- />Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, 601 76 Norrköping, Sweden
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Tomczak M, Niiranen S, Hjerne O, Blenckner T. Ecosystem flow dynamics in the Baltic Proper—Using a multi-trophic dataset as a basis for food–web modelling. Ecol Modell 2012. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2011.12.014] [Citation(s) in RCA: 67] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
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Backer H, Leppänen JM, Brusendorff AC, Forsius K, Stankiewicz M, Mehtonen J, Pyhälä M, Laamanen M, Paulomäki H, Vlasov N, Haaranen T. HELCOM Baltic Sea Action Plan--a regional programme of measures for the marine environment based on the Ecosystem Approach. MARINE POLLUTION BULLETIN 2010; 60:642-9. [PMID: 20006361 DOI: 10.1016/j.marpolbul.2009.11.016] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/23/2007] [Revised: 11/15/2009] [Accepted: 11/16/2009] [Indexed: 05/07/2023]
Abstract
The Helsinki Commission (HELCOM) Baltic Sea Action Plan, adopted by the coastal countries of the Baltic Sea and the European Community in November 2007, is a regional intergovernmental programme of measures for the protection and management of the marine environment explicitly based on the Ecosystem Approach. The Action Plan is structured around a set of Ecological Objectives used to define indicators and targets, including effect-based nutrient input ceilings, and to monitor implementation. The Action Plan strongly links Baltic marine environmental concerns to important socio-economic fields such as agriculture and fisheries and promotes cross-sectoral tools including marine spatial planning. Due to complementarities with the European Union (EU) Marine Strategy Framework Directive, the Action Plan is in essence a pilot for this process without neglecting the important role of the Russian Federation - the only Baltic coastal country not a member of the EU.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hermanni Backer
- HELCOM Secretariat, Katajanokanlaituri 6 B, FI-00160 Helsinki, Finland.
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Abstract
A method to combine observations and an ensemble of ecological models is suggested to produce a eutrophication assessment. Using threshold values and methodology from the Oslo and Paris Commissions (OSPAR) and the Helsinki Commission (HELCOM), four models are combined to assess eutrophication for the Baltic and North Seas for the year 2006. The assessment indicates that the entire southeastern part of the North Sea, the Kattegat, the Danish Straits, the Gulf of Finland, and the Gulf of Riga as well as parts of the Arkona Basin, the Bornholm Basin, and the Baltic proper may be classified as problem areas. The Bothnian Bay and parts of the Baltic proper, the Bornholm Basin, and the Arkona Basin are classified as potential problem areas. This method is a useful tool for the classification of eutrophication; however, the results depend on the threshold values, and further work is needed within both OSPAR and HELCOM to harmonize these values.
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Affiliation(s)
- Elin Almroth
- Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Oceanografiska enheten, Sven Källfelts gata 15, 426 71 Västra Frölunda, Sweden
| | - Morten D. Skogen
- Institute of Marine Research, Pb1870 Nordnes, 5817 Bergen, Norway
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Ducrotoy JP, Elliott M. The science and management of the North Sea and the Baltic Sea: natural history, present threats and future challenges. MARINE POLLUTION BULLETIN 2008; 57:8-21. [PMID: 18533194 DOI: 10.1016/j.marpolbul.2008.04.030] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/03/2023]
Abstract
The review provides an overview of the features of the North Sea and the Baltic Sea in their European geographical and socio-political context. To reach sustainability in the wider sense the common society has to meet the 7 tenets - that management actions have to be environmentally sustainable, economically viable, technologically feasible, socially desirable (or at least tolerable), legally permissible, administratively achievable and politically expedient. Each of these are explained and discussed using examples from the two seas including pollution control, physical resource exploitation (such as aggregates, habitat loss, renewable energy and oil and gas), and biological resources exploitation (fisheries and aquaculture). This paper discusses the similarities between the areas in terms of their management regimes, population in the catchment, history of anthropogenic changes, derivation of objectives against a wealth of information and understanding, and the history of management and control. In contrast, the differences between the areas centre on their differing hydrographic regimes, including residence and flushing times, biological features, nature of the pollutants discharged, dominant types of fishing and type of control indicated by a predominant Eastern Bloc for the Baltic as opposed to European Union control in the North Sea. The review ends with an assessment of future challenges and examples of the way in which environmental problems have been addressed in the two areas. In particular, it sets the features against a background of management designed to achieve the Ecosystem Approach within the prevailing European marine management framework.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jean-Paul Ducrotoy
- Institute of Estuarine and Coastal Studies, University of Hull, Hull, UK
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Pitkänen H, Kiirikki M, Savchuk OP, Räike A, Korpinen P, Wulff F. Searching efficient protection strategies for the eutrophied Gulf of Finland: the combined use of 1D and 3D modeling in assessing long-term state scenarios with high spatial resolution. AMBIO 2007; 36:272-9. [PMID: 17520944 DOI: 10.1579/0044-7447(2007)36[272:sepsft]2.0.co;2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/15/2023]
Abstract
An experiment combining the use of two ecosystem models was conducted to search for effective protection strategies for the Gulf of Finland (Baltic Sea). Reference and scenario simulations were first run with a one-dimensional (1D) model for seven main basins of the entire Baltic Sea until steady state was achieved. The obtained basinwise distributions of inorganic nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P), as well as sediment labile P, were then used to initiate 5-y simulations with a three-dimensional (3D) ecosystem model. The results suggest that relatively small local load reductions (the "Finland" scenario) would improve only the state of adjacent coastal waters significantly. This would be the case, even for runs covering several decades, which clearly exceed the residence times of nutrients in the Gulf of Finland. A significant decrease from a substantial loading source to the Gulf (the "St. Petersburg" scenario) would decrease cyanobacterial biomasses in the entire Gulf of Finland and also immediately outside it. A reduction in the current Polish nutrient loads would improve the situation in the whole Baltic Proper and cause an extensive decline in cyanobacterial biomasses in the Gulf of Finland, as well. However, it would take several decades until the improvement caused by reducing loads in the "Poland" scenario is seen, while in the "St. Petersburg" scenario the corresponding time lag would only be a few years. Our results suggest that the common water protection policy in the Baltic Sea region should have the largest nutrient sources as its primary target, regardless of their location and country.
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Mörth CM, Humborg C, Eriksson H, Danielsson A, Medina MR, Löfgren S, Swaney DP, Rahm L. Modeling riverine nutrient transport to the Baltic Sea: a large-scale approach. AMBIO 2007; 36:124-33. [PMID: 17520924 DOI: 10.1579/0044-7447(2007)36[124:mrnttt]2.0.co;2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/15/2023]
Abstract
We developed for the first time a catchment model simulating simultaneously the nutrient land-sea fluxes from all 105 major watersheds within the Baltic Sea drainage area. A consistent modeling approach to all these major watersheds, i.e., a consistent handling of water fluxes (hydrological simulations) and loading functions (emission data), will facilitate a comparison of riverine nutrient transport between Baltic Sea subbasins that differ substantially. Hot spots of riverine emissions, such as from the rivers Vistula, Oder, and Daugava or from the Danish coast, can be easily demonstrated and the comparison between these hot spots, and the relatively unperturbed rivers in the northern catchments show decisionmakers where remedial actions are most effective to improve the environmental state of the Baltic Sea, and, secondly, what percentage reduction of riverine nutrient loads is possible. The relative difference between measured and simulated fluxes during the validation period was generally small. The cumulative deviation (i.e., relative bias) [Sigma(Simulated - Measured)/Sigma Measured x 100 (%)] from monitored water and nutrient fluxes amounted to +8.2% for runoff, to -2.4% for dissolved inorganic nitrogen, to +5.1% for total nitrogen, to +13% for dissolved inorganic phosphorus and to +19% for total phosphorus. Moreover, the model suggests that point sources for total phosphorus compiled by existing pollution load compilations are underestimated because of inconsistencies in calculating effluent loads from municipalities.
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Affiliation(s)
- Carl-Magnus Mörth
- Department of Geology and Geochemistry, Stockholm University, Sweden.
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Wulff F, Savchuk OP, Sokolov A, Humborg C, Mörth CM. Management options and effects on a marine ecosystem: assessing the future of the Baltic. AMBIO 2007; 36:243-9. [PMID: 17520940 DOI: 10.1579/0044-7447(2007)36[243:moaeoa]2.0.co;2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/15/2023]
Abstract
We are using the coupled models in a decision support system, Nest, to evaluate the response of the marine ecosystem to changes in external loads through various management options. The models address all the seven major marine basins and the entire drainage basin of the Baltic Sea. A series of future scenarios have been developed, in close collaboration with the Helsinki Commission, to see the possible effects of improved wastewater treatment and manure handling, phosphorus-free detergents, and less intensive land use and live stocks. Improved wastewater treatment and the use of phosphorus-free detergents in the entire region would drastically decrease phosphorus loads and improve the marine environment, particularly the occurrence of cyanobacterial blooms. However, the Baltic Sea will remain eutrophic, and to reduce other effects, a substantial reduction of nitrogen emissions must be implemented. This can only be obtained in these scenarios by drastically changing land use. In a final scenario, we have turned 50% of all agricultural lands into grasslands, together with efficient wastewater treatments and a ban of phosphorus in detergents. This scenario will substantially reduce primary production and the extension of hypoxic bottoms, increase water transparency in the most eutrophied basins, and virtually eliminate extensive cyanobacterial blooms.
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Affiliation(s)
- Fredrik Wulff
- Department of Systems Ecology, Stockholm University, Sweden.
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