Improving early cycle economic evaluation of diagnostic technologies

Evaluating the Value for Money of Precision Medicine from Early Cycle to Market Access: A Comprehensive Review of Approaches and Challenges

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to perform a comprehensive review of modeling approaches and methodological and policy challenges in the economic evaluation (EE) of precision medicine (PM) across clinical stages.

METHODS

First, a systematic review was performed to assess the approaches of EEs in the past 10 years. Next, a targeted review of methodological articles was conducted for methodological and policy challenges in performing EEs of PM. All findings were synthesized into a structured framework that focused on patient population, Intervention, Comparator, Outcome, Time, Equity and ethics, Adaptability and Modeling aspects, named the "PICOTEAM" framework. Finally, a stakeholder consultation was conducted to understand the major determinants of decision making in PM investment.

RESULTS

In 39 methodological articles, we identified major challenges to the EE of PM. These challenges include that PM applications involve complex and evolving clinical decision space, that clinical evidence is sparse because of small subgroups and complex pathways in PM settings, a one-time PM application may have lifetime or intergenerational impacts but long-term evidence is often unavailable, and that equity and ethics concerns are exceptional. In 275 EEs of PM, current approaches did not sufficiently capture the value of PM compared with targeted therapies, nor did they differentiate Early EEs from Conventional EEs. Finally, policy makers perceived the budget impact, cost savings, and cost-effectiveness of PM as the most important determinants in decision making.

CONCLUSIONS

There is an urgent need to modify existing guidelines or develop a new reference case that fits into the new healthcare paradigm of PM to guide decision making in research and development and market access.

Headroom Analysis for Early Economic Evaluation: A Systematic Review

OBJECTIVES

The headroom analysis is an early economic evaluation that quantifies the highest price at which an intervention may still be cost effective. Currently, there is no comprehensive review on how it is applied. This study investigated the application of the headroom analysis, specifically (1) how the headroom analysis is framed (2) the analytical approach and sources of evidence used, and (3) how expert judgement is used and reported.

METHODS

A systematic search was conducted in PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, EconLit, and Google Scholar on 28 April 2022. Studies were eligible if they reported an application of the headroom analysis. Data were presented in tabular form and summarised descriptively.

RESULTS

We identified 42 relevant papers. The headroom analysis was applied to medicines (29%), diagnostic or screening tests (29%), procedures, programmes and systems (21%), medical devices (19%), and a combined test and device (2%). All studies used model-based analyses, with 40% using simple models and 60% using more comprehensive models. Thirty-three percent of the studies assumed perfect effectiveness of the health technology, while 67% adopted realistic assumptions. Ten percent of the studies calculated an effectiveness-seeking headroom instead of a cost-seeking headroom. Expert judgement was used in 71% of the studies; 23 studies (55%) used expert opinion, 6 studies (14%) used expert elicitation, and 1 study (2%) used both.

CONCLUSIONS

Because the application of the headroom analysis varies considerably, we recommend its appropriate use and clear reporting of analytical approaches, level of evidence available, and the use of expert judgement.

Using early health economic modeling to inform medical innovation development: a soft robotic sock in poststroke patients in Singapore

OBJECTIVES

Based on a real-world collaboration with innovators in applying early health economic modeling, we aimed to offer practical steps that health technology assessment (HTA) researchers and innovators can follow and promote the usage of early HTA among research and development (R&D) communities.

METHODS

The HTA researcher was approached by the innovator to carry out an early HTA ahead of the first clinical trial of the technology, a soft robotic sock for poststroke patients. Early health economic modeling was selected to understand the potential value of the technology and to help uncover the information gap. Threshold analysis was used to identify the target product profiles. Value-of-information analysis was conducted to understand the uncertainties and the need for further research.

RESULTS

Based on the expected price and clinical effectiveness by the innovator, the new technology was found to be cost-saving compared to the current practice. Risk reduction in deep vein thrombosis and ankle contracture, the incidence rate of ankle contracture, the compliance rate of the new technology, and utility scores were found to have high impacts on the value-for-money of the new technology. The value of information was low if the new technology can achieve the expected clinical effectiveness. A list of parameters was recommended for data collection in the impending clinical trial.

CONCLUSIONS

This work, based on a real-world collaboration, has illustrated that early health economic modeling can inform medical innovation development. We provided practical steps in order to achieve more efficient R&D investment in medical innovation moving forward.

Potential Cost-Effectiveness of Risk-Based Pancreatic Cancer Screening in Patients With New-Onset Diabetes

BACKGROUND

There are no established methods for pancreatic cancer (PAC) screening, but the NCI and the Pancreatic Cancer Action Network (PanCAN) are investigating risk-based screening strategies in patients with new-onset diabetes (NOD), a group with elevated PAC risk. Preliminary estimates of the cost-effectiveness of these strategies can provide insights about potential value and inform supplemental data collection. Using data from the Enriching New-Onset Diabetes for Pancreatic Cancer (END-PAC) risk model validation study, we assessed the potential value of CT screening for PAC in those determined to be at elevated risk, as is being done in a planned PanCAN Early Detection Initiative trial.

METHODS

We created an integrated decision tree and Markov state-transition model to assess the cost-effectiveness of PAC screening in patients aged ≥50 years with NOD using CT imaging versus no screening. PAC prevalence, sensitivity, and specificity were derived from the END-PAC validation study. PAC stage distribution in the no-screening strategy and PAC survival were derived from the SEER program. Background mortality for patients with diabetes, screening and cancer care expenditure, and health state utilities were derived from the literature. Life-years (LYs), quality-adjusted LYs (QALYs), and costs were tracked over a lifetime horizon and discounted at 3% per year. Results are presented in 2020 US dollars, and we took a limited US healthcare perspective.

RESULTS

In the base case, screening resulted in 0.0055 more LYs, 0.0045 more QALYs, and $293 in additional expenditures for a cost per QALY gained of $65,076. In probabilistic analyses, screening resulted in a cost per QALY gained of <$50,000 and <$100,000 in 34% and 99% of simulations, respectively. In the threshold analysis, >25% of screen-detected PAC cases needed to be resectable for the cost per QALY gained with screening to be <$100,000.

CONCLUSIONS

We found that risk-based PAC screening in patients with NOD is likely to be cost-effective in the United States if even a modest fraction (>25%) of screen-detected patients with PAC are resectable. Future studies should reassess the value of this intervention once clinical trial data become available.

A qualitative exploration of early assessment of innovative medical technologies

Background

Hospitals increasingly make decisions about early development of and investment in innovative medical technologies (IMTs), but at present often without an early assessment of their potential to ensure selection of the most promising candidates for further development. This paper explores how early assessment is carried out in different health organisations and then discusses relevant learning points for hospitals.

Methods

A qualitative study design with a structured interview guide covering four themes was used. Content analyses of interview notes were performed covering four predetermined themes: context, basis for decision-making, process and structure, and perceptions. A fifth theme, handling cognitive bias, was identified during data analysis.

Results

A total of 11 organisations participated; eight from the private health industry and three public hospitals. The interviews identified four areas in which early assessment is performed in similar manner across the studied organisations and four areas where differences exist between public hospitals and private organisations. Public hospitals indicate a lower degree of formalised early assessment and less satisfaction with how early assessment is performed, compared to private organisations. Based on the above findings, two learning points may carry promise for hospitals. First, having dedicated prioritising committees for IMTs making stop/go decisions. This committee is separate from the IMT development processes and involved staff. Secondly, the committee should base decisions on a transparent early assessment decision-support tool, which include a broad set of domains, is iterative, describes uncertainty, and minimise cognitive biases.

Conclusions

Similarities and differences in the way early assessment is done in different health organisations were identified. These findings suggest promising learning points for the development of an early assessment model for hospitals.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12913-018-3647-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

The economic case for precision medicine

Introduction: The advancement of precision medicine into routine clinical practice has been highlighted as an agenda for national and international health care policy. A principle barrier to this advancement is in meeting requirements of the payer or reimbursement agency for health care. This special report aims to explain the economic case for precision medicine, by accounting for the explicit objectives defined by decision-makers responsible for the allocation of limited health care resources. Areas covered: The framework of cost-effectiveness analysis, a method of economic evaluation, is used to describe how precision medicine can, in theory, exploit identifiable patient-level heterogeneity to improve population health outcomes and the relative cost-effectiveness of health care. Four case studies are used to illustrate potential challenges when demonstrating the economic case for a precision medicine in practice. Expert commentary: The economic case for a precision medicine should be considered at an early stage during its research and development phase. Clinical and economic evidence can be generated iteratively and should be in alignment with the objectives and requirements of decision-makers. Programmes of further research, to demonstrate the economic case of a precision medicine, can be prioritized by the extent that they reduce the uncertainty expressed by decision-makers.

Emerging Use of Early Health Technology Assessment in Medical Product Development: A Scoping Review of the Literature

Early health technology assessment is increasingly being used to support health economic evidence development during early stages of clinical research. Such early models can be used to inform research and development about the design and management of new medical technologies to mitigate the risks, perceived by industry and the public sector, associated with market access and reimbursement. Over the past 25 years it has been suggested that health economic evaluation in the early stages may benefit the development and diffusion of medical products. Early health technology assessment has been suggested in the context of iterative economic evaluation alongside phase I and II clinical research to inform clinical trial design, market access, and pricing. In addition, performing early health technology assessment was also proposed at an even earlier stage for managing technology portfolios. This scoping review suggests a generally accepted definition of early health technology assessment to be "all methods used to inform industry and other stakeholders about the potential value of new medical products in development, including methods to quantify and manage uncertainty". The present review also aimed to identify recent published empirical studies employing an early-stage assessment of a medical product. With most included studies carried out to support a market launch, the dominant methodology was early health economic modeling. Further methodological development is required, in particular, by combining systems engineering and health economics to manage uncertainty in medical product portfolios.

Early Stage Health Technology Assessment for Precision Biomarkers in Oral Health and Systems Medicine

Health technology assessment (HTA) is a crucial science that influences the responsible and evidence-based transition of new discoveries from laboratory to applications in the clinic and society. HTA has recently moved "upstream" so as to assess technologies from their onset at their discovery, design, or planning phase. Biomarker research is relatively recent in oral health, but growing rapidly with investments made to advance dentistry and oral health and importantly, to build effective bridges between oral health and systems medicine since what happens in oral health affects systems pathophysiology, and vice versa. This article offers a synthesis of the latest trends and approaches in early phase HTA, with a view to near future applications in oral health, systems medicine, and biomarker-guided precision medicine. In brief, this review underscores that demonstrating health outcomes of biomarkers and next-generation diagnostics is particularly challenging because they do not always influence long-term outcomes directly, but rather impact subsequent care processes. Biomarker testing costs are typically less of a barrier to uptake in practice than the biomarker's impact on longer term health outcomes. As a single biomarker or next-generation diagnostic in oral health can inform decisions about numerous downstream diagnosis-treatment combinations, early stage "upstream" HTA is crucial in prioritizing the most valuable diagnostic applications to pursue first. For the vast array of oral health biomarkers currently developed, early HTA is necessary to timely and iteratively assess their comparative effectiveness and anticipate the inevitable questions about value for money from regulators and payers.

Decisions on Further Research for Predictive Biomarkers of High-Dose Alkylating Chemotherapy in Triple-Negative Breast Cancer: A Value of Information Analysis

OBJECTIVES

To inform decisions about the design and priority of further studies of emerging predictive biomarkers of high-dose alkylating chemotherapy (HDAC) in triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) using value-of-information analysis.

METHODS

A state transition model compared treating women with TNBC with current clinical practice and four biomarker strategies to personalize HDAC: 1) BRCA1-like profile by array comparative genomic hybridization (aCGH) testing; 2) BRCA1-like profile by multiplex ligation-dependent probe amplification (MLPA) testing; 3) strategy 1 followed by X-inactive specific transcript gene (XIST) and tumor suppressor p53 binding protein (53BP1) testing; and 4) strategy 2 followed by XIST and 53BP1 testing, from a Dutch societal perspective and a 20-year time horizon. Input data came from literature and expert opinions. We assessed the expected value of partial perfect information, the expected value of sample information, and the expected net benefit of sampling for potential ancillary studies of an ongoing randomized controlled trial (RCT; NCT01057069).

RESULTS

The expected value of partial perfect information indicated that further research should be prioritized to the parameter group including "biomarkers' prevalence, positive predictive value (PPV), and treatment response rates (TRRs) in biomarker-negative patients and patients with TNBC" (€639 million), followed by utilities (€48 million), costs (€40 million), and transition probabilities (TPs) (€30 million). By setting up four ancillary studies to the ongoing RCT, data on 1) TP and MLPA prevalence, PPV, and TRR; 2) aCGH and aCGH/MLPA plus XIST and 53BP1 prevalence, PPV, and TRR; 3) utilities; and 4) costs could be simultaneously collected (optimal size = 3000).

CONCLUSIONS

Further research on predictive biomarkers for HDAC should focus on gathering data on TPs, prevalence, PPV, TRRs, utilities, and costs from the four ancillary studies to the ongoing RCT.

Knee Joint Distraction Compared to Total Knee Arthroplasty for Treatment of End Stage Osteoarthritis: Simulating Long-Term Outcomes and Cost-Effectiveness

OBJECTIVE

In end-stage knee osteoarthritis the treatment of choice is total knee arthroplasty (TKA). An alternative treatment is knee joint distraction (KJD), suggested to postpone TKA. Several studies reported significant and prolonged clinical improvement of KJD. To make an appropriate decision regarding the position of this treatment, a cost-effectiveness and cost-utility analysis from healthcare perspective for different age and gender categories was performed.

METHODS

A treatment strategy starting with TKA and a strategy starting with KJD for patients of different age and gender was simulated. To extrapolate outcomes to long-term health and economic outcomes a Markov (Health state) model was used. The number of surgeries, QALYs, and treatment costs per strategy were calculated. Costs-effectiveness is expressed using the cost-effectiveness plane and cost-effectiveness acceptability curves.

RESULTS

Starting with KJD the number of knee replacing procedures could be reduced, most clearly in the younger age categories; especially revision surgery. This resulted in the KJD strategy being dominant (more effective with cost-savings) in about 80% of simulations (with only inferiority in about 1%) in these age categories when compared to TKA. At a willingness to pay of 20.000 Euro per QALY gained, the probability of starting with KJD to be cost-effective compared to starting with a TKA was already found to be over 75% for all age categories and over 90-95% for the younger age categories.

CONCLUSION

A treatment strategy starting with knee joint distraction for knee osteoarthritis has a large potential for being a cost-effective intervention, especially for the relatively young patient.

Multi-Dimensional Impact of the Public-Private Center for Translational Molecular Medicine (CTMM) in the Netherlands: Understanding New 21(st) Century Institutional Designs to Support Innovation-in-Society

Knowledge translation is at the epicenter of 21st century life sciences and integrative biology. Several innovative institutional designs have been formulated to cultivate knowledge translation. One of these organizational innovations has been the Center for Translational Molecular Medicine (CTMM), a multi-million public-private partnership in the Netherlands. The CTMM aims to accelerate molecular diagnostics and imaging technologies to forecast disease susceptibilities in healthy populations and early diagnosis and personalized treatment of patients. This research evaluated CTMM's impact on scientific, translational, clinical, and economic dimensions. A pragmatic, operationally-defined process indicators approach was used. Data were gathered from CTMM administrations, through a CTMM-wide survey (n = 167) and group interviews. We found that the CTMM focused on disease areas with high human, clinical, and economic burden to society (i.e., oncology, cardiovascular, neurologic, infection, and immunity diseases). CTMM displayed a robust scientific impact that rests 15%-80% above international reference values regarding publication volume and impact. Technology translation to the clinic was accelerated, with >50% of projects progressing from pre-clinical development to clinical testing within 5 years. Furthermore, CTMM has generated nearly 1500 Full Time Equivalent (FTE) of translational R&D capacity. Its positive impact on translational, (future) clinical, and economic aspects is recognized across all surveyed stakeholders. As organizational innovation is increasingly considered critical to forge linkages between life sciences discoveries and innovation-in-society, lessons learned from this study may inform other institutions with similar objectives such as the Clinical and Translational Science Awards (CTSA) Program of the National Institutes of Health (NIH) in the United States.

Exploratory Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Response-Guided Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy for Hormone Positive Breast Cancer Patients

PURPOSE

Guiding response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy (guided-NACT) allows for an adaptative treatment approach likely to improve breast cancer survival. In this study, our primary aim is to explore the expected cost-effectiveness of guided-NACT using as a case study the first randomized controlled trial that demonstrated effectiveness (GeparTrio trial).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

As effectiveness was shown in hormone-receptor positive (HR+) early breast cancers (EBC), our decision model compared the health-economic outcomes of treating a cohort of such women with guided-NACT to conventional-NACT using clinical input data from the GeparTrio trial. The expected cost-effectiveness and the uncertainty around this estimate were estimated via probabilistic cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA), from a Dutch societal perspective over a 5-year time-horizon.

RESULTS

Our exploratory CEA predicted that guided-NACT as proposed by the GeparTrio, costs additional €110, but results in 0.014 QALYs gained per patient. This scenario of guided-NACT was considered cost-effective at any willingness to pay per additional QALY. At the prevailing Dutch willingness to pay threshold (€80.000/QALY) cost-effectiveness was expected with 78% certainty.

CONCLUSION

This exploratory CEA indicated that guided-NACT (as proposed by the GeparTrio trial) is likely cost-effective in treating HR+ EBC women. While prospective validation of the GeparTrio findings is advisable from a clinical perspective, early CEAs can be used to prioritize further research from a broader health economic perspective, by identifying which parameters contribute most to current decision uncertainty. Furthermore, their use can be extended to explore the expected cost-effectiveness of alternative guided-NACT scenarios that combine the use of promising imaging techniques together with personalized treatments.

Development of a web-based tool for the assessment of health and economic outcomes of the European Innovation Partnership on Active and Healthy Ageing (EIP on AHA)

BACKGROUND

The European Innovation Partnership on Active and Healthy Ageing (EIP on AHA) is a European Commission led policy initiative to address the challenges of demographic change in Europe. For monitoring the health and economic impact of the social and technological innovations carried out by more than 500 stakeholder's groups ('commitments') participating in the EIP on AHA, a generic and flexible web-based monitoring and assessment tool is currently being developed.

AIM

This paper describes the approach for developing and implementing this web-based tool, its main characteristics and capability to provide specific outcomes that are of value to the developers of an intervention, as well as a series of case studies planned before wider rollout.

METHODS

The tool builds up from a variety of surrogate endpoints commonly used across the diverse set of EIP on AHA commitments in order to estimate health and economic outcomes in terms of incremental changes in quality adjusted life years (QALYs) as well as health and social care utilisation. A highly adaptable Markov model with initially three mutually exclusive health states ('baseline health', 'deteriorated health' and 'death') provides the basis for the tool which draws from an extensive database of epidemiological, economic and effectiveness data; and also allows further customisation through remote data entry enabling more accurate and context specific estimation of intervention impact. Both probabilistic sensitivity analysis and deterministic scenario analysis allow assessing the impact of parameter uncertainty on intervention outcomes. A set of case studies, ranging from the pre-market assessment of early healthcare technologies to the retrospective analysis of established care pathways, will be carried out before public rollout, which is envisaged end 2015.

CONCLUSION

Monitoring the activities carried out within the EIP on AHA requires an approach that is both flexible and consistent in the way health and economic impact is estimated across interventions and commitments. The added value for users of the MAFEIP-tool is its ability to provide an early assessment of the likelihood that interventions in their current design will achieve the anticipated impact, and also to identify what drives interventions' effectiveness or efficiency to guide further design, development or evaluation.

Early stage cost-effectiveness analysis of a BRCA1-like test to detect triple negative breast cancers responsive to high dose alkylating chemotherapy

PURPOSE

Triple negative breast cancers (TNBC) with a BRCA1-like profile may benefit from high dose alkylating chemotherapy (HDAC). This study examines whether BRCA1-like testing to target effective HDAC in TNBC patients can be more cost-effective than treating all patients with standard chemotherapy. Additionally, we estimated the minimum required prevalence of BRCA1-like and the required positive predictive value (PPV) for a BRCA1-like test to become cost-effective.

METHODS

Our Markov model compared 1) the incremental costs; 2) the incremental number of respondents; 3) the incremental number of Quality Adjusted Life Years (QALYs); and 4) the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of treating TNBC women with personalized HDAC based on BRCA1-like testing vs. standard chemotherapy, from a Dutch societal perspective and a 20-year time horizon, using probabilistic sensitivity analysis. Furthermore, we performed one-way sensitivity analysis (SA) to all model parameters, and two-way SA to prevalence and PPV. Data were obtained from a current trial (NCT01057069), published literature and expert opinions.

RESULTS

BRCA1-like testing to target effective HDAC would presently not be cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay threshold of €80.000/QALY (€81.981/QALY). SAs show that PPV drives the ICER changes. Lower bounds for the prevalence and the PPV were found to be 58.5% and 73.0% respectively.

CONCLUSION

BRCA1-like testing to target effective HDAC treatment in TNBC patients is currently not cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay of €80.000/QALY, but it can be when a minimum PPV of 73% is obtained in clinical practice. This information can help test developers and clinicians in decisions on further research and development of BRCA1-like tests.