Spatial analysis of AIDS and the social determinants of health

[Temporal pattern, spatial distribution, and factors associated with the incidence of HIV/AIDS among young people in BrazilPatrón temporal, distribución espacial y factores asociados a la incidencia de la infección por el VIH/sida en jóvenes en Brasil]

Objective

To describe temporal and spatial patterns and identify the factors associated with the incidence of HIV/AIDS among young people in Brazil.

Method

Ecological study of young Brazilians aged 15-24 years with reported HIV/AIDS, from 2001 to 2021. The Joinpoint method was used for the temporal analysis. Spatial clusters were detected using Bayesian methods, spatial autocorrelation, Getis-Ord Gi*, and scan techniques. Four non-spatial and spatial regression models were used to identify factors associated with the result. All statistical analyses considered p < 0.05.

Results

In Brazil, the average incidence was 12.29 per 100 000 inhabitants, with an annual increase of 7.3% in the period 2007-2014 and a subsequent 3.4% decrease in 2014-2021. A high-high pattern and hotspots were observed, mainly in municipalities in the South, Southeast, Central-West, and North regions. The primary cluster was located in 572 municipalities in Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina, with the highest relative risks in Manaus (Amazonas) and Rondonópolis (Mato Grosso). The illiteracy rate (β = -0.08), GINI Index (β = -3.74) and Family Health Strategy coverage (β = -0.70) were negatively associated with the result. In contrast, the Firjan Municipal Development Index (β = 2.37), Social Vulnerability Index (β = 6.30), percentage of Bolsa Família recipients (β = 0.04), and per capita income (β = 0.008) showed a positive association.

Conclusion

There was an upward trend in the incidence of HIV/AIDS until 2014, followed by a decline until 2021. High-rate clusters were concentrated in municipalities in the North, South, Southeast and Central-West regions in particular. Indicators of socioeconomic vulnerability had positive or negative effects on the result, depending on the territory investigated.

Clusters of heterogeneity of tuberculosis-HIV coinfection in Brazil: a geospatial study

OBJECTIVE

To analyze the geospatialization of tuberculosis-HIV coinfection in Brazil, from 2010 to 2021, and the correlation with socioeconomic, housing, and health indicators.

METHODS

An ecological study of Brazilian municipalities and states, with data from HIV and tuberculosis information systems, previously reported by the Ministry of Health. The crude and smoothed coefficients were calculated by the local empirical Bayesian method of incidence of coinfection per 100,000 inhabitants in the population aged between 18 and 59 years. Univariate (identification of clusters) and bivariate (correlation with 20 indicators) Moran's indices were used.

RESULTS

A total of 122,223 cases of coinfection were registered in Brazil from 2010 to 2021, with a mean coefficient of 8.30/100,000. The South (11.44/100,000) and North (9.93/100,000) regions concentrated the highest burden of infections. The coefficients dropped in Brazil, in all regions, in the years of covid-19 (2020 and 2021). The highest coefficients were observed in the municipalities of the states of Rio Grande do Sul, Mato Grosso do Sul, and Amazonas, with high-high clusters in the capitals, border regions, coast of the country. The municipalities belonging to the states of Minas Gerais, Bahia, Paraná, and Piauí showed low-low clusters. There was a direct correlation with human development indices and aids rates, as well as an indirect correlation with the proportion of poor or of those vulnerable to poverty and the Gini index.

CONCLUSIONS

The spatial analysis of tuberculosis-HIV coinfection showed heterogeneity in the Brazilian territory and constant behavior throughout the period, revealing clusters with high-burden municipalities, especially in large urban centers and in states with a high occurrence of HIV and/or tuberculosis. These findings, in addition to alerting to the effects of the covid-19 pandemic, can incorporate strategic planning for the control of coinfection, aiming to eliminate these infections as public health problems by 2030.

The effects of social determinants of health on acquired immune deficiency syndrome in a low-income population of Brazil: a retrospective cohort study of 28.3 million individuals

Background

Social determinants of health (SDH) include factors such as income, education, and race, that could significantly affect the human immunodeficiency virus and acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS). Studies on the effects of SDH on HIV/AIDS are limited, and do not yet provide a systematic understanding of how the various SDH act on important indicators of HIV/AIDS progression. We aimed to evaluate the effects of SDH on AIDS morbidity and mortality.

Methods

A retrospective cohort of 28.3 million individuals was evaluated over a 9-year period (from 2007 to 2015). Multivariable Poisson regression, with a hierarchical approach, was used to estimate the effects of SDH-at the individual and familial level-on AIDS incidence, mortality, and case-fatality rates.

Findings

A total of 28,318,532 individuals, representing the low-income Brazilian population, were assessed, who had a mean age of 36.18 (SD: 16.96) years, 52.69% (14,920,049) were female, 57.52% (15,360,569) were pardos, 34.13% (9,113,222) were white/Asian, 7.77% (2,075,977) were black, and 0.58% (154,146) were indigenous. Specific socioeconomic, household, and geographic factors were significantly associated with AIDS-related outcomes. Less wealth was strongly associated with a higher AIDS incidence (rate ratios-RR: 1.55; 95% confidence interval-CI: 1.43-1.68) and mortality (RR: 1.99; 95% CI: 1.70-2.34). Lower educational attainment was also greatly associated with higher AIDS incidence (RR: 1.46; 95% CI: 1.26-1.68), mortality (RR: 2.76; 95% CI: 1.99-3.82) and case-fatality rates (RR: 2.30; 95% CI: 1.31-4.01). Being black was associated with a higher AIDS incidence (RR: 1.53; 95% CI: 1.45-1.61), mortality (RR: 1.69; 95% CI: 1.57-1.83) and case-fatality rates (RR: 1.16; 95% CI: 1.03-1.32). Overall, also considering the other SDH, individuals experiencing greater levels of socioeconomic deprivation were, by far, more likely to acquire AIDS, and to die from it.

Interpretation

In the population studied, SDH related to poverty and social vulnerability are strongly associated with a higher burden of HIV/AIDS, most notably less wealth, illiteracy, and being black. In the absence of relevant social protection policies, the current worldwide increase in poverty and inequalities-due to the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic, and the effects of war in the Ukraine-could reverse progress made in the fight against HIV/AIDS in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC).

Funding

National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NAIDS), National Institutes of Health (NIH), US Grant Number: 1R01AI152938.

A space-time analysis of mortality in older people living with HIV/AIDS in the state of São Paulo, Brazil

OBJECTIVE

To analyze the spatiotemporal distribution of mortality in older people living with the human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) in the state of São Paulo, Brazil.

METHODS

This is an ecological study with temporal and spatial approaches to analyze mortality from HIV/AIDS in the older adult population in the 2010-2020 period in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. Analysis of temporal trends was performed using the joinpoint regression, and spatial analysis was carried out using the Moran's index and the local empirical Bayesian model.

RESULTS

We identified a total of 3,070 deaths from HIV/AIDS among older adults and a mortality rate of 51.71 per 100 thousand inhabitants during the study period. The joinpoint method showed a growing trend for the age groups from 70 to 79 years (annual percent change [APC]=3.45; p=0.01) and ≥80 years (APC=6.60; p=0.006) and stability for the general older adult population (APC=0.99; p=0.226). The spatial distribution of the crude mortality rate was diffuse throughout the state. After smoothing by the Bayesian estimator, we observed greater concentration in the eastern mesoregions. In Moran's analysis, we observed clusters of lower mortality rates in more central regions; and of higher rates in the southern and northern regions of the state.

CONCLUSIONS

We found a major growing trend in mortality from HIV/AIDS in the age group of older adults over 69 years during the 2010-2020 period. Clusters of high mortality rates were located in regions further to the south and north of the state, where places of greater social inequalities are concentrated.

Spatial distribution and temporal trends of AIDS in Brazil and regions between 2005 and 2020

OBJECTIVE

To analyze the spatial distribution and the temporal trend of the AIDS incidence rate in Brazil from 2005 to 2020.

METHODS

This is an ecological, temporal, and spatial study on AIDS cases in Brazil. Data from the Notifiable Diseases Information System were stratified by year of diagnosis, region of the country/municipalities of residence, and age group (over 13 years). Incidence rates were calculated for temporal estimation using the Joinpoint model, as well as Spatial Empirical Bayes (SEB) for spatial distribution, using the Kernel density estimator.

RESULTS

The incidence rate in Brazil, in 2020, was 17.69 cases per 100 thousand inhabitants. The general trend (2005-2020) was decrease in Brazil (Annual Percent Change - APC=-2.0%), in the Southeast (APC=-4.4%) and South (APC=-3.0%) regions. The North (APC=2.3%) showed an increase trend, whereas the Southeast and Midwest regions were stationary (p>0.05). Brazil, Southeast, South, and Midwest regions showed a decrease trend in most age groups. The Northeast and North regions showed an increase in the age groups of 13-29 years and 13-24 years, respectively. The Kernel estimator showed clusters with SEB above 30/10 thousand inhabitants in the states of Paraíba, Sergipe, Alagoas, Pernambuco, São Paulo, Minas Gerais, Pará, Rio Grande do Sul, and Santa Catarina.

CONCLUSION

Brazil, the Southeast, and South regions showed a decrease in the incidence rate, whereas the North region increased and the Northeast and Midwest regions were stationary. The Southeast, South, and Northeast regions presented the largest clusters of SEB.

Distribuição espacial e tendência temporal da AIDS no Brasil e regiões entre 2005 e 2020

RESUMO: Objetivo: Analisar a distribuição espacial e a tendência temporal da taxa de incidência de AIDS no Brasil no período de 2005 a 2020. Métodos: Estudo ecológico, temporal e espacial sobre os casos de AIDS no Brasil. Dados provenientes do Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação do Departamento de Informática do Sistema Único de Saúde foram estratificados por ano do diagnóstico, região do país/municípios de residência e faixa etária (acima de 13 anos). Foram calculadas as taxas de incidência (TI) para a estimativa temporal por meio do modelo de joinpoint, bem como as taxas bayesianas empíricas espaciais (TBEE) para a distribuição espacial pelo estimador de densidade de Kernel. Resultados: A TI no Brasil no ano de 2020 foi de 17,69 casos para cada 100 mil habitantes. A tendência geral (2005–2020) foi de diminuição no Brasil (variação percentual anual — VPA=-2,0%), Sudeste (VPA=-4,4%) e Sul (VPA=-3,0%). O Norte (VPA=2,3%) demonstrou aumento, enquanto o Sudeste e Centro-oeste foram estacionários (p>0,05). O Brasil, Sudeste, Sul e Centro-oeste apresentaram tendência de diminuição na maioria das faixas etárias. O Nordeste e Norte apresentaram aumento nas faixas etárias de 13 a 29 anos e 13 a 24 anos, respectivamente. O estimador de Kernel demonstrou conglomerados com TBEE acima de 30/10 mil habitantes nos estados de Paraíba, Sergipe, Alagoas, Pernambuco, São Paulo, Minas Gerais, Pará, Rio Grande do Sul e Santa Catarina. Conclusão: O Brasil e as Regiões Sudeste e Sul apresentaram diminuição da TI, enquanto o Norte aumentou e o Nordeste e Centro-oeste foram estacionários. As Regiões Sudeste, Sul e Nordeste apresentaram os maiores conglomerados das TBEE.

Role of social organization engagement in high-risk groups intervention against HIV/AIDS: a case study from 176 cities of China

BACKGROUND

A high-risk prevention strategy is an effective way to fight against human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS). The China AIDS Fund for Non-Governmental Organizations (CAFNGO) was established in 2015 to help social organizations intervene to protect high-risk populations in 176 cities. This study aimed to evaluate the role of social organizations in high-risk population interventions against HIV/AIDS.

METHODS

This study was based on the CAFNGO program from 2016 to 2020. The collected data included the number and types of social organizations participating in high-risk group interventions and the amount of funds obtained by these organizations each year. We explored the factors influencing the number of newly diagnosed AIDS cases using a spatial econometric model. Furthermore, we evaluated the effectiveness of intervention activities by comparing the percentages of the individuals who initially tested positive, and the individuals who took the confirmatory test, as well as those who retested positive and underwent the treatment.

RESULTS

Overall, from 2016 to 2020, the number of social organizations involved in interventions to protect HIV/AIDS high-risk populations increased from 441 to 532, and the invested fund increased from $3.98 to $10.58 million. The number of newly diagnosed cases decreased from 9128 to 8546 during the same period. Although the number of cities with overall spatial correlations decreased, the spatial agglomeration effect persisted in the large cities. City-wise, the number of social organizations (direct effect 19.13), the permanent resident population (direct effect 0.12), GDP per capita (direct effect 17.58; indirect effect - 15.38), and passenger turnover volume (direct effect 5.50; indirect effect - 8.64) were the major factors influencing new positive cases confirmed through the testing interventions performed by the social organizations. The initial positive test rates among high-risk populations were below 5.5%, the retesting rates among those who initially tested positive were above 60%, and the treatment rates among diagnosed cases were above 70%.

CONCLUSIONS

The spatial effect of social organizations participating in interventions targeting high-risk populations funded by CAFNGO is statistically significant. Nevertheless, despite the achievements of these social organizations in tracking new cases and encouraging treatment, a series of measures should be taken to further optimize the use of CAFNGO. Working data should be updated from social organizations to CAFNGO more frequently by establishing a data monitoring system to help better track newly diagnosed AIDS cases. Multichannel financing should be expanded as well.

Temporal trend and spatial distribution of cases of mother-to-child transmission of HIV in the state of Santa Catarina, Brazil, 2007-2017: an ecological study

OBJECTIVE

To analyze the temporal trend and spatial distribution of mother-to-child HIV transmission in Santa Catarina between 2007 and 2017.

METHODS

This was a mixed ecological study with data from the Notifiable Health Conditions Information System. Linear regression was performed for time series analysis and the mean rates in the period and mean annual percentage changes in the rates of HIV-infected pregnant women were calculated, children exposed to HIV during pregnancy, and seroconversion of children exposed to HIV/AIDS during pregnancy, in addition to data geoprocessing.

RESULTS

There were 5,554 records of HIV-infected pregnant women, with a rate of 5.6 pregnant women per 1,000 live births. The mean seroconversion rate was 13.5/100,000 live births (95%CI 6.8;20.1) and it showed a falling trend (APC = -99.4%; 95%CI -99.9;-93.1). The seroconversion rate was more expressive in small towns.

CONCLUSION

The rate of HIV-infected pregnant women was stable in the period, whereas the number of children infected with HIV through mother-to-child transmission decreased.

Factors Associated with HIV and Vulnerability Contexts for Women in Brazil

The purpose of this study was to identify factors associated with HIV and vulnerability contexts for women in Porto Alegre, Brazil. The participants were 1326 women recruited by complex sampling design, divided into two groups: 640 women with HIV (WLH) and 686 women who did not have HIV (WNLH). Gross and weighted statistical analyses were performed. Logistic regression models were used to estimate the odds ratio (OR) for 12 variables. The main results demonstrated that WLH had lower income (p < .001) and poorer education (p = .038), and few used condoms during their first sexual intercourse (p < .001). The occurrence of HIV was higher among the black population (p < .001). Sex in exchange for money (p < .001) and sexually transmitted infections (p < .001) were more frequent among WLH than among WNLH. The age of sexual debut and age difference from the partner at first sexual intercourse (FSI) were not associated with the outcome. The high percentage of non-use of condoms during the FSI shows how vulnerable individuals are right at the beginning of their sexual lives. More effective prevention strategies can be developed by nurses in view of the contexts of vulnerability surrounding women.

Spatial and temporal analysis of the human immunodeficiency virus in an area of social vulnerability in Northeast Brazil

Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) infection still represents an important public health problem, because it involves clinical, epidemiological, social, economic and political issues. We analyzed the temporal and spatial pattern of the HIV incidence in an area of social inequality in northeast Brazil and its association with socioeconomic indicators. An ecological study was carried out with a focus on all HIV cases reported in Alagoas State, Northeast Brazil from 2007 to 2016 using its 102 municipalities as the units of our analysis. Data from the Brazilian information systems were used. Georeferenced data were analyzed using TerraView 4.2.2 software, QGis 2.18.2 and GeoDa 1.14.0. Time trend analyses were performed by the Joinpoint Regression software and the spatial analyses included the empirical Bayesian model and Moran autocorrelation. Spatial regression was used to determine the influence of space on HIV incidence rate and socioeconomic inequalities. There was an increasing trend of HIV rates, especially in the municipalities of the interior. Significant spatial correlations were observed with the formation of clusters with emphasis on the coast of the state and in tourist regions. Spatial regression explained 46% of the dependent variable. The HIV incidence rate was positively influenced by rate of primary health care units (P=0.00), and negatively by Gini index (P=0.00) and proportion of heads of household without or low education (P=0.02). We conclude that the relationship found between indicators of better socioeconomic conditions and HIV infection suggests unequal access to the diagnosis of infection. Prevention and control strategies can be established according to each epidemiological reality.

Effect of income on the cumulative incidence of COVID-19: an ecological study

OBJECTIVE

to analyze the relationship between per capita income and the cumulative incidence of COVID-19 in the neighborhoods of the city of Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil.

METHOD

an ecological study using neighborhoods as units of analysis. The cumulative incidence rate per 100,000 inhabitants and the median of potential confounding variables (sex, race, and age) were calculated. Multiple analysis included quantile regression, estimating the regression coefficients of the variable income for every five percentiles from the 10th to 90th percentiles to verify the relationship between income and incidence.

RESULTS

the city's rate was 36.58 new cases per 100,000 inhabitants. In general, the highest rates were observed in the wealthiest regions. Multiple analysis was consistent with this observation since the per capita income affected all percentiles analyzed, with a median regression coefficient of 0.02 (p-value <0.001; R2 32.93). That is, there is an increase of R$ 0.02 in the neighborhood's per capita income for every unit of incidence.

CONCLUSION

cumulative incident rates of COVID-19 are influenced by one's neighborhood of residency, suggesting that access to testing is uneven.