Climatic factors influencing triatomine occurrence in Central-West Brazil

From serological surveys to disease burden: a modelling pipeline for Chagas disease

In 2012, the World Health Organization (WHO) set the elimination of Chagas disease intradomiciliary vectorial transmission as a goal by 2020. After a decade, some progress has been made, but the new 2021-2030 WHO roadmap has set even more ambitious targets. Innovative and robust modelling methods are required to monitor progress towards these goals. We present a modelling pipeline using local seroprevalence data to obtain national disease burden estimates by disease stage. Firstly, local seroprevalence information is used to estimate spatio-temporal trends in the Force-of-Infection (FoI). FoI estimates are then used to predict such trends across larger and fine-scale geographical areas. Finally, predicted FoI values are used to estimate disease burden based on a disease progression model. Using Colombia as a case study, we estimated that the number of infected people would reach 506 000 (95% credible interval (CrI) = 395 000-648 000) in 2020 with a 1.0% (95%CrI = 0.8-1.3%) prevalence in the general population and 2400 (95%CrI = 1900-3400) deaths (approx. 0.5% of those infected). The interplay between a decrease in infection exposure (FoI and relative proportion of acute cases) was overcompensated by a large increase in population size and gradual population ageing, leading to an increase in the absolute number of Chagas disease cases over time. This article is part of the theme issue 'Challenges and opportunities in the fight against neglected tropical diseases: a decade from the London Declaration on NTDs'.

Geographic Distribution of the Genus Panstrongylus Berg, 1879 in the Neotropic with Emphasis on Trypanosoma cruzi Vectors

Panstrongylus is a Neotropical taxa of 16 species, some more widespread than others, that act as vectors of Trypanosoma cruzi, the etiologic agent of Chagas disease (CD). This group is associated with mammalian reservoir niches. There are few studies of the biogeography and niche suitability of these triatomines. Using zoo-epidemiological occurrence databases, the distribution of Panstrongylus was determined based on bioclimatic modelling (DIVA GIS), parsimonious niche distribution (MAXENT), and parsimony analysis of endemic species (PAE). Through 517 records, a wide presence of P. geniculatus, P. rufotuberculatus, P. lignarius, and P. megistus was determined and recorded as frequent vectors of T. cruzi in rainforest habitats of 24-30 °C. These distributions were modeled with AUC >0.80 and <0.90, as well as with the seasonality of temperature, isothermality, and precipitation as relevant bioclimatic variables. Individual traces for each taxon in Panstrongylus-1036 records-showed widely dispersed lines for frequent vectors P. geniculatus, P. lignarius, P. rufotuberculatus, and P. megistus. Other occasional vectors showed more restricted dispersal, such as P. howardi, P. humeralis, P. lenti, P. lutzi, P. tupynambai, P. noireaiui, and P. chinai. Areas of defined environmental variation, geological change, and trans domain fluid fauna, such as the American Transition Zone and the Pacific Domain of Morrone, had the highest Panstrongylus diversity. Pan-biogeographic nodes appear to be areas of the greatest species diversity that act as corridors connecting biotopes and allowing fauna migration. Vicariance events in the geologic history of the continent need to be investigated. The geographical distribution of Panstrongylus overlapped with CD cases and Didelphis marsupialis/Dasypus novemcinctus presence, two important reservoirs in Central and South America. The information derived from the distribution of Panstrongylus provides knowledge for surveillance and vector control programs. It would increase information on the most and less relevant vector species of this zoonotic agent, for monitoring their population behavior.

Phenology and environmental predictors of Triatoma sanguisuga dispersal in east-central Texas, United States

Of 11 triatomine species in the United States (US), Triatoma sanguisuga has the widest distribution across a 23-state region encompassing the southeastern US. This species consistently feeds on humans and dogs and has a high infection prevalence with the Chagas parasite Trypanosoma cruzi, with over 30-60% of adults infected. Little is known about the phenology and environmental predictors of dispersal activity of Triatoma sanguisuga. Using manual searches standardized by effort, we sampled kissing bugs in east central Texas, US every other night from June to November 2020 to determine their phenology and environmental predictors of activity. We found 176 triatomines alive, all of which were T. sanguisuga, with peak collections in early August and cessation of activity by late October; the phenology as determined by this active surveillance matched what has been reported using a passive community science approach. Using a negative binomial regression, we found temperature to have a positive correlation with T. sanguisuga dispersal activity, while wind speed had a significant negative correlation. We identified increased collections during sampling sessions with precipitation during the preceding 22 h. Further, wind from the southwest - the direction of most of the sylvatic habitat in the study area - was correlated with an increased dispersal activity, suggesting wind-facilitated dispersal. Given concerns for human and animal Chagas disease within the distribution of T. sanguisuga, vector control strategies can be adapted based on the factors influencing dispersal behavior.

Triatoma costalimai, a neglected vector of Trypanosoma cruzi in the Cerrado savannas of South America: A comprehensive review

Triatoma costalimai is a little-known triatomine-bug species whose role as a vector of Chagas disease remains poorly understood. To address this gap, we conducted a comprehensive review of the literature and assessed the evidence base from a public-health perspective. We found 89 individual documents/resources with information about T. costalimai. DNA-sequence and cytogenetic data indicate that T. costalimai belongs, together with Triatoma jatai, in a distinct clade within the 'pseudomaculata group' of South American Triatoma. Triatoma costalimai is probably a narrow endemic of the Cerrado on the upper Tocantins River Basin and associated ranges/plateaus; there, the species thrives in the sandstone/limestone outcrops typical of the "Cerrado rupestre" (rocky-soil savanna) and "mata seca decídua calcária" (limestone-soil dry forest) phytophysiognomies. Wild T. costalimai appear to feed on whatever vertebrates are available in rocky outcrops, with lizards and rodents being most common. There is persuasive evidence that house invasion/infestation by T. costalimai has increased in frequency since the 1990s. The bugs often carry Trypanosoma cruzi, often defecate while feeding, have high fecundity/fertility, and, under overtly favorable conditions, can produce two generations per year. Current knowledge suggests that T. costalimai can transmit human Chagas disease in the upper Tocantins Basin; control-surveillance systems should 'tag' the species as a potentially important local vector in the Brazilian states of Goiás and Tocantins. Further research is needed to clarify (i) the drivers and dynamics of house invasion, infestation, and reinfestation by T. costalimai and (ii) the genetic structuring and vector capacity of the species, including its wild and non-wild populations.

Environmental influence on <em>Triatoma vitticeps</em> occurrence and <em>Trypanosoma cruzi</em> infection in the Atlantic Forest of south-eastern Brazil

Trypanosoma cruzi requires a triatomine insect vector for its life cycle, which can be complex in different enzootic scenarios, one of which is the unique transmission network in the Atlantic Forest of south-eastern Brazil. In Espírito Santo (ES) State, highly infected Triatoma vitticeps are frequently reported invading domiciles. However, triatomines were not found colonizing residences and mammals in the surrounding areas did not present T. cruzi infection. To date, the biotic and abiotic variables that modulate T. vitticeps occurrence and T. cruzi infection in ES State are still unknown. The aim of this study was to identify the environmental variables that modulate their occurrence. Local thematic maps were generated for two response variables: T. vitticeps occurrence and T. cruzi infection. The following explanatory variables were tested: climate (temperature, relative air humidity and rainfall), altitude elevation, mammalian species richness as well as soil and vegetation types. Spatiotemporal distribution patterns and correlation levels between response and explanatory variables were assessed through spatial statistics and map algebra modelling. The central and southern mesoregions presented higher T. vitticeps and T. cruzi distributions and can be considered transmission hotspots. The explanatory variables that can explain these phenomena were relative air humidity, average temperature, soil type, altitude elevation and mammalian species richness. Algebra map modelling demonstrated that central and southern mesoregions presented the environmental conditions needed for T. vitticeps occurrence and T. cruzi infection. The consideration of environmental variables is essential for understanding the T. cruzi transmission cycle. Cartographic and statistical methodologies used in parasitology have been demonstrated to be reliable and enlightening tools that should be incorporated routinely to expand the understanding of vector-borne parasite transmission.

Systematic review on the biology, ecology, genetic diversity and parasite transmission potential of Panstrongylus geniculatus (Latreille 1811) in Latin America

Panstrongylus geniculatus (Latreille, 1811) is the triatomine with the largest geographic distribution in Latin America. It has been reported in 18 countries from southern Mexico to northern Argentina, including the Caribbean islands. Although most reports indicate that P. geniculatus has wild habitats, this species has intrusive habits regarding human dwellings mainly located in intermediate deforested areas. It is attracted by artificial light from urban and rural buildings, raising the risk of transmission of Trypanosoma cruzi. Despite the wide body of published information on P. geniculatus, many knowledge gaps exist about its biology and epidemiological potential. For this reason, we analysed the literature for P. geniculatus in Scopus, PubMed, Scielo, Google Scholar and the BibTriv3.0 databases to update existing knowledge and provide better information on its geographic distribution, life cycle, genetic diversity, evidence of intrusion and domiciliation, vector-related circulating discrete taxonomic units, possible role in oral T. cruzi transmission, and the effect of climate change on its biology and epidemiology.

Modelling the climatic suitability of Chagas disease vectors on a global scale

The Triatominae are vectors for Trypanosoma cruzi, the aetiological agent of the neglected tropical Chagas disease. Their distribution stretches across Latin America, with some species occurring outside of the Americas. In particular, the cosmopolitan vector, Triatoma rubrofasciata, has already been detected in many Asian and African countries. We applied an ensemble forecasting niche modelling approach to project the climatic suitability of 11 triatomine species under current climate conditions on a global scale. Our results revealed potential hotspots of triatomine species diversity in tropical and subtropical regions between 21°N and 24°S latitude. We also determined the climatic suitability of two temperate species (T. infestans, T. sordida) in Europe, western Australia and New Zealand. Triatoma rubrofasciata has been projected to find climatically suitable conditions in large parts of coastal areas throughout Latin America, Africa and Southeast Asia, emphasising the importance of an international vector surveillance program in these regions.

The Evolution of Climate Changes in Portugal: Determination of Trend Series and Its Impact on Forest Development

Climate changes are a phenomenon that can affect the daily activities of rural communities, with particular emphasis on those directly dependent on the agricultural and forestry sectors. In this way, the present work intends to analyse the impact that climate changes have on forest risk assessment, namely on how the occurrence of rural fires are affecting the management of the forest areas and how the occurrence of these fires has evolved in the near past. Thus, a comparative analysis of the data provided by IPMA (Portuguese Institute of the Sea and the Atmosphere), was carried out for the period from 2001 to 2017 with the climatic normal for the period between 1971 to 2000, for the variables of the average air temperature, and for the precipitation. In this comparative study, the average monthly values were considered and the months in which anomalies occurred were determined. Anomalies were considered in the months in which the average air temperature varied by 1 °C than the value corresponding to the climatic norm, in at least 50% of the national territory. The same procedure was repeated for the variable precipitation, counting as anomaly the occurrence of a variation in precipitation of 50%, also in 50% of the national territory. Then the calculation of the moving averages for cycles of 3, 5 and 7 periods were applied, and the trend lines were projected. Subsequently, the relationship between the results obtained and the occurrence of rural fires as well as the spatial distribution of forest area, species and structure were analyzed. From the results obtained it was possible to confirm the existence of a tendency for the occurrence of climatic anomalies, highlighting the occurrence of an increasing number of months with temperatures higher by at least 1 °C. It was possible to foresee the relation between the occurrence of rural fires and the periods of anomaly and absence of precipitation. From the results obtained it is also possible to infer that, analyzing the tendency for these phenomena to occur, it can be necessary to change the “critical period of rural fires”, since it is verified that what is currently in use does not covers the entire period where anomalies occur and where large-scale rural fires potentially can happen.

Patterns of vector species richness and species composition as drivers of Chagas disease occurrence in Brazil

Chagas disease represents one of the major health issue in Latin America. Epidemiological control is focused on disease vectors, so studies on the ecology of triatomine vectors constitute a central strategy. Recently, research at large spatial scale has been produced, and authors commonly rely on the assumption that geographical regions presenting good environmental conditions for most vector species are also those with high risk of infection. In the present work, we provide an explicit evaluation for this assumption. Employing species distribution models and epidemiological data for Chagas disease in Brazilian territory, our results show that species richness is a poor predictor for the observed pattern of Chagas disease occurrence. Species composition proved to be a better predictor. We stress that research on macroecology of infectious diseases should go beyond the analysis of biodiversity patterns and consider human infections as a central part of the focal ecological systems.

Molecular bloodmeal analyses reveal that Trypanosoma cruzi-infected, native triatomine bugs often feed on humans in houses in central Brazil

The identification of bloodmeal sources in triatomine bugs (Hemiptera: Reduviidae) is important in understanding vector-host associations and in measuring the risk for Chagas' disease transmission. The bloodmeal sources of triatomines infected with Trypanosoma cruzi (Trypanosomatida: Trypanosomatidae) caught in houses in central Brazil (Goiás State and the Federal District) were investigated during 2012-2014. Mitochondrial cytochrome b amplicons were used to identify bloodmeals through high-resolution melting and DNA sequencing. Most bugs were found to have fed on either humans (45.7%) or chickens (43.1%). Human blood was detected in Triatoma sordida (n = 22/50 bugs), Triatoma pseudomaculata (n = 7/11 bugs), Panstrongylus megistus (n = 10/24 bugs), Panstrongylus geniculatus (n = 1/3 bugs) and Rhodnius neglectus (n = 18/28 bugs) (all: Hemiptera: Reduviidae). Sequencing identified Necromys (Rodentia: Cricetidae) mouse blood in P. geniculatus and Tropidurus (Squamata: Tropiduridae) lizard blood in T. pseudomaculata and T. sordida. These findings reveal new vector-host associations. The present results suggest frequent contact between humans and T. cruzi-infected triatomines in central Brazil and indicate that Chagas' disease transmission by native vectors is an ongoing threat.

Spatial prediction of risk areas for vector transmission of Trypanosoma cruzi in the State of Paraná, southern Brazil

After obtaining certification of the absence of transmission of the Trypanosoma cruzi by Triatoma infestans in 2006, other native species of protozoan vectors have been found in human dwellings within municipalities of the State of Paraná, Southern Brazil. However, the spatial distribution of T. cruzi vectors and how climatic and landscape combined variables explain the distribution are still poorly understood. The goal of this study was to predict the potential distribution of T. cruzi vectors as a proxy for Chagas disease transmission risk using Ecological Niche Models (ENMs) based on climatic and landscape variables. We hypothesize that ENM based on both climate and landscape variables are more powerful than climate-only or landscape-only models, and that this will be true independent of vector species. A total of 2,662 records of triatomines of five species were obtained by community-based entomological surveillance from 2007 to 2013. The species with the highest number of specimens was Panstrongylus megistus (73%; n = 1,943), followed by Panstrongylus geniculatus (15.4%; 411), Rhodnius neglectus (6.0%; 159), Triatoma sordida (4.5%; 119) and Rhodnius prolixus (1.1%; 30). Of the total, 71.9% were captured at the intradomicile. T. cruzi infection was observed in 19.7% of the 2,472 examined insects. ENMs were generated based on selected climate and landscape variables with 1 km2 spatial resolution. Zonal statistics were used for classifying the municipalities as to the risk of occurrence of synanthropic triatomines. The integrated analysis of the climate and landscape suitability on triatomines geographical distribution was powerful on generating good predictive models. Moreover, this showed that some municipalities in the northwest, north and northeast of the Paraná state have a higher risk of T. cruzi vector transmission. This occurs because those regions present high climatic and landscape suitability values for occurrence of their vectors. The frequent invasion of houses by infected triatomines clearly indicates a greater risk of transmission of T. cruzi to the inhabitants. More public health attention should be given in the northern areas of the State of Paraná, which presents high climate and landscape suitabilities for the disease vectors. In conclusion, our results-through spatial analysis and predictive maps-showed to be effective in identifying areas of potential distribution and, consequently, in the definition of strategic areas and actions to prevent new cases of Chagas' disease, reinforcing the need for continuous and robust surveillance in these areas.

Natural infection by Trypanosoma cruzi in triatomines and seropositivity for Chagas disease of dogs in rural areas of Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil

INTRODUCTION

Chagas disease is caused by the protozoa Trypanosoma cruzi. Its main reservoir is the domestic dog, especially in rural areas with favorable characteristics for vector establishment and proliferation. The aims of this study were to collect data, survey and map the fauna, and identify T. cruzi infection in triatomines, as well as to assess the presence of anti-T. cruzi antibodies in dogs in rural areas of the municipality of Mossoró, Brazil.

METHODS

An active entomologic research was conducted to identify adult specimens through an external morphology dichotomous key. The analysis of natural infection by T. cruzi in the insects was performed by isolation in culture and polymerase chain reaction. The antibody testing for T. cruzi in dogs was performed by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay and indirect immunofluorescence assay.

RESULTS

A total of 68 triatomines were captured, predominantly the Triatoma brasiliensis brasiliensis (Neiva 1911) species. The vector mapping displayed areas with greater risk for parasite transmission. Of the examined triatomines (51 specimens), 41.2% (21/51) were positive on polymerase chain reaction, and all were negative on culture. In the serum testing, 11% (25/218) of dogs were seropositive, but no association was found between the serologic results and the presence and infection by T. cruzi in triatomines.

CONCLUSIONS

This study demonstrated the movement of T. cruzi in the studied area, by the presence of vectors and naturally infected domestic reservoirs. The mapping of the studied rural area demonstrates the risk of disease transmission.

Synanthropic triatomines as potential vectors of Trypanosoma cruzi in Central Brazil

INTRODUCTION

Chagas disease surveillance requires current knowledge on synanthropic triatomines. We analyzed the occurrence and Trypanosoma cruzi infection rates of triatomine bugs in central Brazil, during 2012-2014.

METHODS

Triatomines were collected inside or around houses, and T. cruzi infection was determined by optical microscopy and conventional/quantitative polymerase chain reaction.

RESULTS

Of the 2706 triatomines collected, Triatoma sordida was the most frequent species in Goiás State, whereas Panstrongylus megistus predominated in the Federal District. Parasites identified were T. cruzi, T. rangeli, and Blastocrithidia sp.

CONCLUSIONS

P. megistus and T. sordida sustained the risk of T. cruzi transmission to humans in central Brazil.

Development of conventional and real-time multiplex PCR-based assays for estimation of natural infection rates and Trypanosoma cruzi load in triatomine vectors

BACKGROUND

Chagas disease is a complex anthropozoonosis with distinct domestic and sylvatic mammal species acting as potential reservoirs. The diversity of vector species and their habitats are among the factors that hinder the control of the disease. Control programs periodically monitor the prevalence of T. cruzi infection in insect bugs through microscopical observation of diluted feces. However, microscopy presents limited sensitivity in samples with low parasite numbers, difficulties in examining all evolutionary stages of the insect and may in turn be limited to differentiate T. cruzi from other morphologically similar trypanosomatids. Here, we report two highly sensitive and accurate methodologies to infer T. cruzi infection rates and to quantify parasite load in the gut of field-collected triatomines.

METHODS

Triatomines were manually collected in the period 2011-2012 and 2014-2015, in domestic, peridomestic or sylvatic habitats in rural areas of 26 municipalities, encompassing three distinct Brazilian biomes: Caatinga, Cerrado and Atlantic Rainforest. Following morphological and taxonomical identification, the search for flagellated protozoa was performed by optical microscopy. A conventional PCR targeting T. cruzi kDNA and a TaqMan qPCR directed to the parasite nuclear satellite DNA (SAT) were developed, both in multiplex, with the triatomine 12S subunit ribosomal RNA gene, used as internal amplification control. Both methods were used for detection (kDNA-PCR) and parasite load quantification (SAT-DNA-qPCR), to investigate T. cruzi infection in captured triatomines.

RESULTS

The combined methods were assayed on a panel of 205 field-collected triatomine samples. Diagnostic analysis revealed 21% positivity for the kDNA-PCR, whereas microscopic examination enabled identification of T. cruzi in only 7.0% of the PCR-positive samples. Negative PCR results were confirmed by the absence of T. cruzi flagellates using microscopy. Caatinga biome yielded the highest T. cruzi infection rate (60%), followed by the Atlantic Rainforest and Cerrado with 7.1 and 6.1%, respectively. In addition, a wide range distribution of parasite load, varying from 8.05 × 10-2 to 6.31 × 1010 was observed with a median of 2.29 × 103 T. cruzi/intestine units. When parasite load was analyzed by triatomine species, a significantly higher median was found for Panstrongylus lutzi in comparison with Triatoma brasiliensis.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results demonstrate highly sensitive PCR-based methodologies to monitor T. cruzi infection in triatomines. In addition, the qPCR assay offers the possibility of further evaluation parasite load, as a promising biomarker of the vectorial capacity of triatomines in Chagas disease endemic areas.

Relationships between altitude, triatomine (Triatoma dimidiata) immune response and virulence of Trypanosoma cruzi, the causal agent of Chagas' disease

Little is known about how the virulence of a human pathogen varies in the environment it shares with its vector. This study focused on whether the virulence of Trypanosoma cruzi (Trypanosomatida: Trypanosomatidae), the causal agent of Chagas' disease, is related to altitude. Accordingly, Triatoma dimidiata (Hemiptera: Reduviidae) specimens were collected at three different altitudes (300, 700 and 1400 m a.s.l.) in Chiapas, Mexico. The parasite was then isolated to infect uninfected T. dimidiata from the same altitudes, as well as female CD-1 mice. The response variables were phenoloxidase (PO) activity, a key insect immune response, parasitaemia in mice, and amastigote numbers in the heart, oesophagus, gastrocnemius and brain of the rodents. The highest levels of PO activity, parasitaemia and amastigotes were found for Tryp. cruzi isolates sourced from 700 m a.s.l., particularly in the mouse brain. A polymerase chain reaction-based analysis indicated that all Tryp. cruzi isolates belonged to a Tryp. cruzi I lineage. Thus, Tryp. cruzi from 700 m a.s.l. may be more dangerous than sources at other altitudes. At this altitude, T. dimidiata is more common, apparently because the conditions are more beneficial to its development. Control strategies should focus activity at altitudes around 700 m a.s.l., at least in relation to the region of the present study sites.

Potential Distribution of Chagas Disease Vectors (Hemiptera, Reduviidae, Triatominae) in Colombia, Based on Ecological Niche Modeling

Ecological niche modeling of Triatominae bugs allow us to establish the local risk of transmission of the parasite Trypanosoma cruzi, which causes Chagas disease. This information could help to guide health authority recommendations on infection monitoring, prevention, and control. In this study, we estimated the geographic distribution of triatomine species in Colombia and identified the relationship between landscape structure and climatic factors influencing their occurrence. A total of 2451 records of 4 triatomine species (Panstrongylus geniculatus, Rhodnius pallescens, R. prolixus, and Triatoma maculata) were analyzed. The variables that provided more information to explain the ecologic niche of these vectors were related to precipitation, altitude, and temperature. We found that the species with the broadest potential geographic distribution were P. geniculatus, R. pallescens, and R. prolixus. In general, the models predicted the highest occurrence probability of these vectors in the eastern slope of the Eastern Cordillera, the southern region of the Magdalena valley, and the Sierra Nevada of Santa Marta.

The impact of climate change on the geographical distribution of two vectors of Chagas disease: implications for the force of infection

Chagas disease, caused by the parasite Trypanosoma cruzi, is the most important vector-borne disease in Latin America. The vectors are insects belonging to the Triatominae (Hemiptera, Reduviidae), and are widely distributed in the Americas. Here, we assess the implications of climatic projections for 2050 on the geographical footprint of two of the main Chagas disease vectors: Rhodnius prolixus (tropical species) and Triatoma infestans (temperate species). We estimated the epidemiological implications of current to future transitions in the climatic niche in terms of changes in the force of infection (FOI) on the rural population of two countries: Venezuela (tropical) and Argentina (temperate). The climatic projections for 2050 showed heterogeneous impact on the climatic niches of both vector species, with a decreasing trend of suitability of areas that are currently at high-to-moderate transmission risk. Consequently, climatic projections affected differently the FOI for Chagas disease in Venezuela and Argentina. Despite the heterogeneous results, our main conclusions point out a decreasing trend in the number of new cases of Tr. cruzi human infections per year between current and future conditions using a climatic niche approach.

Global Climate Change Effects on Venezuela's Vulnerability to Chagas Disease is Linked to the Geographic Distribution of Five Triatomine Species

We analyzed the possible effects of global climate change on the potential geographic distribution in Venezuela of five species of triatomines (Eratyrus mucronatus (Stal, 1859), Panstrongylus geniculatus (Latreille, 1811), Rhodnius prolixus (Stål, 1859), Rhodnius robustus (Larrousse, 1927), and Triatoma maculata (Erichson, 1848)), vectors of Trypanosoma cruzi, the etiological agent of Chagas disease. To obtain the future potential geographic distributions, expressed as climatic niche suitability, we modeled the presences of these species using two IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) future emission scenarios of global climate change (A1B and B1), the Global Climate model CSIRO Mark 3.0, and three periods of future projections (years 2020, 2060, and 2080). After estimating with the MaxEnt software the future climatic niche suitability for each species, scenario, and period of future projections, we estimated a series of indexes of Venezuela's vulnerability at the county, state, and country level, measured as the number of people exposed due to the changes in the geographical distribution of the five triatomine species analyzed. Despite that this is not a measure of the risk of Chagas disease transmission, we conclude that possible future effects of global climate change on the Venezuelan population vulnerability show a slightly decreasing trend, even taking into account future population growth; we can expect fewer locations in Venezuela where an average Venezuelan citizen would be exposed to triatomines in the next 50-70 yr.

Distribution Pattern and Climate Preferences of the Representatives of the Cosmopolitan Genus Sirthenea Spinola, 1840 (Heteroptera: Reduviidae: Peiratinae)

The main goal of this study was to predict, through the use of GIS tool as ecological niche modelling, potentially suitable ecological niche and defining the conditions of such niche for the representatives of the cosmopolitan genus Sirthenea. Among all known genera of the subfamily Peiratinae, only Sirthenea occurs on almost all continents and zoogeographical regions. Our research was based on 521 unique occurrence localities and a set of environmental variables covering the whole world. Based on occurrence localities, as well as climatic variables, digital elevation model, terrestrial ecoregions and biomes, information about the ecological preferences is given. Potentially useful ecological niches were modelled using Maxent software, which allowed for the creation of a map of the potential distribution and for determining climatic preferences. An analysis of climatic preferences suggested that the representatives of the genus were linked mainly to the tropical and temperate climates. An analysis of ecoregions also showed that they preferred areas with tree vegetation like tropical and subtropical moist broadleaf forests biomes as well as temperate broadleaf and mixed forest biomes. Therefore, on the basis of the museum data on the species occurrence and ecological niche modelling method, we provided new and valuable information on the potentially suitable habitat and the possible range of distribution of the genus Sirthenea along with its climatic preferences.

Geographic distribution of phlebotomine sandfly species (Diptera: Psychodidae) in Central-West Brazil

This study updates the geographic distributions of phlebotomine species in Central-West Brazil and analyses the climatic factors associated with their occurrence. The data were obtained from the entomology services of the state departments of health in Central-West Brazil, scientific collections and a literature review of articles from 1962-2014. Ecological niche models were produced for sandfly species with more than 20 occurrences using the Maxent algorithm and eight climate variables. In all, 2,803 phlebotomine records for 127 species were analysed. Nyssomyia whitmani, Evandromyia lenti and Lutzomyia longipalpis were the species with the greatest number of records and were present in all the biomes in Central-West Brazil. The models, which were produced for 34 species, indicated that the Cerrado areas in the central and western regions of Central-West Brazil were climatically more suitable to sandflies. The variables with the greatest influence on the models were the temperature in the coldest months and the temperature seasonality. The results show that phlebotomine species in Central-West Brazil have different geographical distribution patterns and that climate conditions in essentially the entire region favour the occurrence of at least one Leishmania vector species, highlighting the need to maintain or intensify vector control and surveillance strategies.

Factors associated with the occurrence of Triatoma sordida (Hemiptera: Reduviidae) in rural localities of Central-West Brazil

This study estimates the factors of artificial environments (houses and peridomestic areas) associated with Triatoma sordida occurrence. Manual searches for triatomines were performed in 136 domiciliary units (DUs) in two rural localities of Central-West Brazil. For each DU, 32 structural, 23 biotic and 28 management variables were obtained. Multiple logistic regression analysis was performed in order to identify statistically significant variables associated with occurrence of T. sordida in the study areas. A total of 1,057 specimens (99% in peridomiciles, mainly chicken coops) of T. sordida were collected from 63 DUs (infestation: 47%; density: ~8 specimens/DU; crowding: ~17 specimens/infested DU; colonisation: 81%). Only six (0.6%) out of 945 specimens examined were infected with Trypanosoma cruzi. The final adjusted logistic regression model indicated that the probability of T. sordida occurrence was higher in DU with wooden chicken coops, presence of > 30 animals in wooden corrals, presence of wood piles and presence of food storeroom. The results show the persistence of T. sordida in peridomestic habitats in rural localities of Central-West Brazil. However, the observed low intradomestic colonisation and minimal triatomine infection rates indicate that T. sordida has low potential to sustain high rates of T. cruzi transmission to residents of these localities.

Modelling the potential geographic distribution of triatomines infected by Triatoma virus in the southern cone of South America

BACKGROUND

Triatoma virus (TrV) is the only entomopathogenous virus identified in triatomines. We estimated the potential geographic distribution of triatomine species naturally infected by TrV, using remotely sensed and meteorological environmental variables, to predict new potential areas where triatomines infected with TrV may be found.

METHODS

Detection of TrV infection in samples was performed with RT-PCR. Ecological niche models (ENM) were constructed using the MaxEnt software. We used 42 environmental variables derived from remotely sensed imagery (AVHRR) and 19 bioclimatic variables (Bioclim). The MaxEnt Jackknife procedure was used to minimize the number of environmental variables that showed an influence on final models. The goodness of fit of the model predictions was evaluated by the mean area under the curve (AUC).

RESULTS

We obtained 37 samples of 7 species of triatomines naturally infected with TrV. Of the TrV positive samples, 32% were from sylvatic habitat, 46% came from peridomicile habitats and 22% from domicile habitats. Five of the seven infected species were found only in the sylvatic habitat, one species only in the domicile and only Triatoma infestans was found in the three habitats. The MaxEnt model estimated with the Bioclim dataset identified five environmental variables as best predictors: temperature annual range, mean diurnal range, mean temperature of coldest quarter, temperature seasonality and annual mean temperature. The model using the AVHRR dataset identified six environmental variables: minimum Land Surface Temperature (LST), minimum Middle Infrared Radiation (MIR), LST annual amplitude, MIR annual amplitude annual, LST variance and MIR variance. The potential geographic distribution of triatomine species infected by TrV coincides with the Chaco and the Monte ecoregions either modelled by AVHRR or Bioclim environmental datasets.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results show that the conditions of the Dry Chaco ecoregion in Argentina are favourable for the infection of triatomine species with TrV, and open the possibility of its use as a potential agent for the biological control of peridomestic and/or sylvatic triatomine species. Results identify areas of potential occurrence that should be verified in the field.

Assessing the vulnerability of Brazilian municipalities to the vectorial transmission of Trypanosoma cruzi using multi-criteria decision analysis

Despite the dramatic reduction in Trypanosoma cruzi vectorial transmission in Brazil, acute cases of Chagas disease (CD) continue to be recorded. The identification of areas with greater vulnerability to the occurrence of vector-borne CD is essential to prevention, control, and surveillance activities. In the current study, data on the occurrence of domiciliated triatomines in Brazil (non-Amazonian regions) between 2007 and 2011 were analyzed. Municipalities' vulnerability was assessed based on socioeconomic, demographic, entomological, and environmental indicators using multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA). Overall, 2275 municipalities were positive for at least one of the six triatomine species analyzed (Panstrongylus megistus, Triatoma infestans, Triatoma brasiliensis, Triatoma pseudomaculata, Triatoma rubrovaria, and Triatoma sordida). The municipalities that were most vulnerable to vector-borne CD were mainly in the northeast region and exhibited a higher occurrence of domiciliated triatomines, lower socioeconomic levels, and more extensive anthropized areas. Most of the 39 new vector-borne CD cases confirmed between 2001 and 2012 in non-Amazonian regions occurred within the more vulnerable municipalities. Thus, MCDA can help to identify the states and municipalities that are most vulnerable to the transmission of T. cruzi by domiciliated triatomines, which is critical for directing adequate surveillance, prevention, and control activities. The methodological approach and results presented here can be used to enhance CD surveillance in Brazil.