Determinants of diet selection by Blackbuck Antilope cervicapra at Point Calimere, southern India: quality also matters

Unlike the wide-ranging habitat generalists that move seasonally across heterogenous habitats to optimize the energy intake, short-ranging habitat specialists fulfil the same by restricting to single habitat. Understanding how habitat-specialists do this is an interesting question and essential for their conservation. We studied the diet composition and evaluated the covariates belonging to climate, habitat and grass dynamics to assess the determinants of seasonal diet selection by Blackbuck Antilope cervicapra, an antelope endemic to the Indian subcontinent, at Point Calimere Wildlife Sanctuary, southern India. Diet composition studied following feeding trail observation (n = 102322) and the influence of covariates on the top five major diet species selected seasonally was tested using Regression with Empirical Variable Selection. The results showed that overall Blackbucks consumed 30 plant species—six browse and 27 grass species. While wet season diet was less diverse (22 species) with higher dependency on principal diet Cyperus compressus (>40%) and Aeluropus lagopoides (24%), the dry season diet was more diverse (30) species, with decreased dependency on principal diet. Among 13 covariates belonging to climate, habitat, and grass dynamics tested against selection of top five major diet plants by Blackbucks, grass dynamics covariates alone entered as the predictors both in wet and dry seasons. While cover and green leaves of the grass were the most common predictors in the top-five diets selection during wet season, in dry season besides cover and green leaves, grass texture (hard and soft), also entered as the most common predictors. The entry of grass cover, a quantitative related measure, and texture and green condition of the grass, quality related measures, as the drivers indicate that diet selection by Blackbuck is not just a matter of grass quantity, but also its quality.

Seasonality and Oldowan behavioral variability in East Africa

The extent, nature, and temporality of early hominin food procurement strategies have been subject to extensive debate. In this article, we examine evidence for the seasonal scheduling of resource procurement and technological investment in the Oldowan, starting with an evaluation of the seasonal signature of underground storage organs, freshwater resources, and terrestrial animal resources in extant primates and modern human hunter-gatherer populations. Subsequently, we use the mortality profiles, taxonomic composition, and taphonomy of the bovid assemblages at Kanjera South (Homa Peninsula, Kenya) and FLK-Zinj (Olduvai Gorge, Tanzania) to illustrate the behavioral flexibility of Oldowan hominins, who were targeting different seasonally vulnerable demographics. In terms of the lithic assemblages, the specific opportunities and constraints afforded by dry season subsistence at FLK-Zinj may have disincentivized lithic investment, resulting in a more expedient toolkit for fast and effective carcass processing. This may have been reinforced by raw material site provisioning during a relatively prolonged seasonal occupation, reducing pressures on the reduction and curation of lithic implements. In contrast, wet season plant abundance would have offered a predictable set of high-quality resources associated with low levels of competition and reduced search times, in the context of perhaps greater seasonal mobility and consequently shorter occupations. These factors appear to have fostered technological investment to reduce resource handling costs at Kanjera South, facilitated by more consistent net returns and enhanced planning of lithic deployment throughout the landscape. We subsequently discuss the seasonality of freshwater resources in Oldowan procurement strategies, focusing on FwJj20 (Koobi Fora, Kenya). Although more analytical studies with representative sample sizes are needed, we argue that interassemblage differences evidence the ability of Oldowan hominins to adapt to seasonal constraints and opportunities in resource exploitation.

It is time to mate: population-level plasticity of wild boar reproductive timing and synchrony in a changing environment

On a population level, individual plasticity in reproductive phenology can provoke either anticipations or delays in the average reproductive timing in response to environmental changes. However, a rigid reliance on photoperiodism can constraint such plastic responses in populations inhabiting temperate latitudes. The regulation of breeding season length may represent a further tool for populations facing changing environments. Nonetheless, this skill was reported only for equatorial, nonphotoperiodic populations. Our goal was to evaluate whether species living in temperate regions and relying on photoperiodism to trigger their reproduction may also be able to regulate breeding season length. During 10 years, we collected 2,500 female reproductive traits of a mammal model species (wild boar Sus scrofa) and applied a novel analytical approach to reproductive patterns in order to observe population-level variations of reproductive timing and synchrony under different weather and resources availability conditions. Under favorable conditions, breeding seasons were anticipated and population synchrony increased (i.e., shorter breeding seasons). Conversely, poor conditions induced delayed and less synchronous (i.e., longer) breeding seasons. The potential to regulate breeding season length depending on environmental conditions may entail a high resilience of the population reproductive patterns against environmental changes, as highlighted by the fact that almost all mature females were reproductive every year.

Maternal effects in mammals: Broadening our understanding of offspring programming

The perinatal period is a sensitive time in mammalian development that can have long-lasting consequences on offspring phenotype via maternal effects. Maternal effects have been most intensively studied with respect to two major conditions: maternal diet and maternal stress. In this review, we shift the focus by discussing five major additional maternal cues and their influence on offspring phenotype: maternal androgen levels, photoperiod (melatonin), microbiome, immune regulation, and milk composition. We present the key findings for each of these topics in mammals, their mechanisms of action, and how they interact with each other and with the maternal influences of diet and stress. We explore their impacts in the contexts of both predictive adaptive responses and the developmental origins of disease, identify knowledge gaps and research opportunities in the field, and place a particular emphasis on the application and consideration of these effects in non-model species and natural ecological systems.

Birth timing generates reproductive trade-offs in a non-seasonal breeding primate

The evolutionary benefits of reproductive seasonality are often measured by a single-fitness component, namely offspring survival. Yet different fitness components may be maximized by different birth timings. This may generate fitness trade-offs that could be critical to understanding variation in reproductive timing across individuals, populations and species. Here, we use long-term demographic and behavioural data from wild chacma baboons (Papio ursinus) living in a seasonal environment to test the adaptive significance of seasonal variation in birth frequencies. We identify two distinct optimal birth timings in the annual cycle, located four-month apart, which maximize offspring survival or minimize maternal interbirth intervals (IBIs), by respectively matching the annual food peak with late or early weaning. Observed births are the most frequent between these optima, supporting an adaptive trade-off between current and future reproduction. Furthermore, infants born closer to the optimal timing favouring maternal IBIs (instead of offspring survival) throw more tantrums, a typical manifestation of mother-offspring conflict. Maternal trade-offs over birth timing, which extend into mother-offspring conflict after birth, may commonly occur in long-lived species where development from birth to independence spans multiple seasons. Our findings therefore open new avenues to understanding the evolution of breeding phenology in long-lived animals, including humans.

The Importance of Environmental Variability and Transient Population Dynamics for a Northern Ungulate

The pathways through which environmental variability affects population dynamics remain poorly understood, limiting ecological inference and management actions. Here, we use matrix-based population models to examine the vital rate responses to environmental variability and individual traits, and subsequent transient dynamics of the population in response to the environment. Using Sitka black-tailed deer (Odocoileus hemionus sitkensis) in Southeast Alaska as a study system, we modeled effects of inter-annual process variance of covariates on female survival, pregnancy rate, and fetal rate, and summer and winter fawn survival. To examine the influence of environmental variance on population dynamics, we compared asymptotic and transient perturbation analysis (elasticity analysis, a life-table response experiment, and transience simulation). We found that summer fawn survival was primarily determined by black bear (Ursus americanus) predation and was positively influenced by mass at birth and female sex. Winter fawn survival was determined by malnutrition in deep-snow winters and was influenced by an interaction between date of birth and snow depth, with late-born fawns at greater risk in deep-snow winters. Adult female survival was the most influential vital rate based on classic elasticity analysis, however, elasticity analysis based on process variation indicated that winter and summer fawn survival were most variable and thus most influential to variability in population growth. Transient dynamics produced by non-stable stage distributions produced realized annual growth rates different from predicted asymptotic growth rates in all years, emphasizing the importance of winter perturbations to population dynamics of this species.

Seasonal environments drive convergent evolution of a faster pace-of-life in tropical butterflies

New ecological niches that may arise due to climate change can trigger diversification, but their colonisation often requires adaptations in a suite of life-history traits. We test this hypothesis in species-rich Mycalesina butterflies that have undergone parallel radiations in Africa, Asia, and Madagascar. First, our ancestral state reconstruction of habitat preference, using c. 85% of extant species, revealed that early forest-linked lineages began to invade seasonal savannahs during the late Miocene-Pliocene. Second, rearing replicate pairs of forest and savannah species from the African and Malagasy radiation in a common garden experiment, and utilising published data from the Asian radiation, demonstrated that savannah species consistently develop faster, have smaller bodies, higher fecundity with an earlier investment in reproduction, and reduced longevity, compared to forest species across all three radiations. We argue that time-constraints for reproduction favoured the evolution of a faster pace-of-life in savannah species that facilitated their persistence in seasonal habitats.

The impact of Masai giraffe nursery groups on the development of social associations among females and young individuals

Fission-fusion social systems involve the splitting and merging of subgroups with frequent changes in membership occurring as a result of a number of ecological and social factors, such as demographic processes including birth, movement, or death. Giraffe reside in fission-fusion social systems, and we studied how reproductive status influence associations among females, as well as how associations differ between calves and juveniles. Data were collected in Katavi National Park, Tanzania, during five study periods. We used social network analysis to identify whether reproductive status and developmental stages predict differences in giraffe social association. We found that females with offspring maintain stronger associations than females without offspring. We also revealed that calves and juveniles had similar network association patterns. Our results suggest that the presence of dependent offspring influences the social associations of females and individuals less than 1.5 years of age are still maintaining strong social associations with nursery group members. We conclude that nursery groups among giraffe are co-operative rearing units that probably reduce the costs of rearing to mothers, and may provide a group structure for animals to begin to develop skills useful for their future life in a fission-fusion social system.

Decadal heat and drought drive body size of North American bison (Bison bison) along the Great Plains

Large grazers are visible and valuable indicators of the effects of projected changes in temperature and drought on grasslands. The grasslands of the Great Plains have supported the greatest number of bison (Bison bison; Linnaeus, 1758) since prehistoric times. We tested the hypothesis that body mass (BM, kg) and asymptotic body mass (ABM, kg) of Bison decline with rising temperature and increasing drought over both temporal and spatial scales along the Great Plains. Temporally, we modeled the relationship of annual measures of BM and height (H, m) of 5,781 Bison at Wind Cave National Park (WICA) from 1966 to 2015. We used Gompertz equations of BM against age to estimate ABM in decadal cohorts; both females and males decreased from the 1960s to the 2010s. Male ABM was variable but consistently larger (699 vs. 441 kg) than female ABM. We used local mean decadal temperature (MDT) and local mean decadal Palmer Drought Severity Index (dPDSI) to model the effects of climate on ABM. Drought decreased ABM temporally (-16 kg/local dPDSI) at WICA. Spatially, we used photogrammetry to measure body height (HE ) of 773 Bison to estimate BME in 19 herds from Saskatchewan to Texas, including WICA. Drought also decreased ABM spatially (-16 kg/local dPDSI) along the Great Plains. Temperature decreased ABM both temporally at WICA (-115 kg/°C local MDT) and spatially (-1 kg/°C local MDT) along the Great Plains. Our data indicate that temperature and drought drive Bison ABM presumably by affecting seasonal mass gain. Bison body size is likely to decline over the next five decades throughout the Great Plains due to projected increases in temperatures and both the frequency and intensity of drought.

Resource utilization by the Kori bustard in the Serengeti ecosystem

This study aimed to understand the movement behaviour and utilization distributions of Kori bustards in space and time in the Serengeti ecosystem. A total of 14 individuals were tracked with the aid of GPS (Geographical positioning system) satellite transmitters, and their sexes were identified using DNA analysis. A species utilization distribution was estimated using the Brownian bridge movement model (hereafter dBBMM) in which the probability of being in an area is conditioned by starting and ending (GPS) relocations. Resource selections were analysed by comparing the GPS relocations with locations randomly placed within each individual’s region of utilization in a spatio-temporal approach. Vegetation information was derived from a Serengeti GIS vegetation map and Data Centre and was reclassified as Open grassland, Dense grassland, Shrubbed grassland, Treed grassland, Shrubland, and Woodland. The Shannon diversity index for vegetation was calculated based on the original vegetation classification. Used versus non-used habitats were contrasted using a generalized linear mixed-effects model with a binomial distribution. The results indicated that males were 21.5% more mobile than females, and movements were 6.3% more diffuse during the non-breeding period compared to the breeding period (7.59 versus 7.14, respectively). Contrasting models indicated that males preferred more open grasslands during the non-breeding period and also preferred closed and shrubbed grassland during the breeding period. Females preferred more woody vegetation during the non-breeding season compared to the breeding season. The most parsimonious model indicated that females preferred to stay closer to rivers and diverse areas during the non-breeding period whereas males preferred areas that were farther from rivers and homogenous. Homogeneous areas were preferred during the breeding period, and heterogeneous areas were preferred during the non-breeding period. We conclude that the movement behaviours of Kori bustards changes with the season and habitat. Further research is needed to understand the factors driving the seasonal movement of Kori bustards in the Serengeti ecosystem.

Male rutting calls synchronize reproduction in Serengeti wildebeest

Tightly synchronized reproduction in vast wildebeest herds underpins the keystone role this iconic species plays in the Serengeti. However, despite decades of study, the proximate synchronizing mechanism remains unknown. Combining a season-long field experiment with simple stochastic process models, we show that females exposed to playback of male rutting vocalizations are over three times more synchronous in their expected time to mating than a control group isolated from all male stimuli. Additionally, predictions of both mating and calving synchrony based on the playback group were highly consistent with independent data on wildebeest mating and calving synchrony, while control-based predictions were inconsistent with the data. Taken together, our results provide the first experimental evidence that male rutting vocalizations alone could account for the highly synchronized reproduction observed in Serengeti wildebeest. Given anthropogenically driven losses in many areas, a mechanistic understanding of synchrony can highlight additional risks declining wildebeest populations may face.

Life History Adaptations to Seasonality

Seasonality creates a template for many natural processes and evolutionary adaptations. Organisms are often faced with an annual cycle consisting of a productive (favorable) and unproductive period. This yearly cycle along with other seasonal variations in abiotic factors and associated biotic interactions form strong selection pressures shaping the scheduling of annual activities and the developmental stages and modes of life through the year. Annual decisions impact trade-offs that involve both current and future reproductive value (RV), and life history theory provides the foundation to understand these linkages between phenology and an organism's full life. Annual routine models further allow for multiple annual decisions to be optimized and predicted with respect to lifetime consequences. Studies of life history adaptations to seasonality are concerned with questions such as: within the productive season, should growth come first, followed by reproduction, or the other way around? What is the best time to diapause or migrate, and how will this timing impact other life history traits? Should energy reserves be built, to transfer resources from 1 year to the next, and allow for the spatial and temporal freedom of capital breeding? If offspring value is low during parts of the productive season, what is then the best alternative to reproduction: accumulate stores, grow, or wait in safety? To help answer these and other questions, I provide an overview of key theoretical concepts and some of the main life schedules, annual routines, and trade-offs involved. Adaptations to the unproductive period include diapause (dormancy), embryonic resting stages (eggs, seeds), energy reserves, and seasonal migrations. Adaptations to the productive window include rapid growth, high reproductive effort, capital breeding, and reproduction entrained to the annual cycle and with precise timing. Distinct annual routines, large body size, energy storage capacities, and parental care are also adaptations to seasonality. Phenotypic plasticity and state-dependence are important parts of these traits and are adaptations in their own. I give particular attention to timing of breeding and the associated birth-time dependent contributions to fitness. Seasonality in offspring value impacts the scheduling of growth, storage, and reproduction and may create parent-offspring conflicts over breeding timing. A combined offspring and parent value perspective should be adopted more broadly, also because of the management implications. I further argue for strategic but careful use of latitudinal (and altitudinal) gradients, and more attention to the role of seasonally varying predation risk as a selective force.

Winter and spring climatic conditions influence timing and synchrony of calving in reindeer

In a context of climate change, a mismatch has been shown to occur between some species' reproductive phenology and their environment. So far, few studies have either documented temporal trends in calving phenology or assessed which climatic variables influence the calving phenology in ungulate species, yet the phenology of ungulates' births affects offspring survival and population's recruitment rate. Using a long-term dataset (45 years) of birth dates of a semi-domesticated reindeer population in Kaamanen, North Finland, we show that calving season has advanced by ~ 7 days between 1970 and 2016. Advanced birth dates were associated with lower precipitation and a reduced snow cover in April and warmer temperatures in April-May. Improved females' physical condition in late gestation due to warmer temperatures in April-May and reduced snow conditions in April probably accounted for such advance in calving date. On the other hand, a lengthening of the calving season was reported following a warmer temperature in January, a higher number of days when mean temperature exceeds 0°C in October-November and a decreasing snow cover from October to November. By affecting the inter-individual heterogeneity in the plastic response of females' calving date to better climatic conditions in fall and winter, climatic variability contributed to weaken the calving synchrony in this herd. Whether variability in climatic conditions form environmental cues for the adaptation of calving phenology by females to climate change is however uncertain, but it is likely. As such this study enhances our understanding on how reproductive phenology of ungulate species would be affected by climate change.

Individual fitness and the effects of a changing climate on the cessation and length of the breeding period using a 34-year study of a temperate songbird

Studies of the phenological responses of animals to climate change typically emphasize the initiation of breeding although climatic effects on the cessation and length of the breeding period may be as or more influential of fitness. We quantified links between climate, the cessation and length of the breeding period, and individual survival and reproduction using a 34-year study of a resident song sparrow (Melospiza melodia) population subject to dramatic variation in climate. We show that the cessation and length of the breeding period varied strongly across years, and predicted female annual fecundity but not survival. Breeding period length was more influential of fecundity than initiation or cessation of breeding alone. Warmer annual temperature and drier winters and summers predicted an earlier cessation of breeding. Population density, the date breeding was initiated, a female's history of breeding success, and the number of breeding attempts initiated previously also predicted the cessation of breeding annually, indicating that climatic, population, and individual factors may interact to affect breeding phenology. Linking climate projections to our model results suggests that females will both initiate and cease breeding earlier in the future; this will have opposite effects on individual reproductive rate because breeding earlier is expected to increase fecundity, whereas ceasing breeding earlier should reduce it. Identifying factors affecting the cessation and length of the breeding period in multiparous species may be essential to predicting individual fitness and population demography. Given a rich history of studies on the initiation of breeding in free-living species, re-visiting those data to estimate climatic effects on the cessation and length of breeding should improve our ability to predict the impacts of climate change on multiparous species.

Rethinking "normal": The role of stochasticity in the phenology of a synchronously breeding seabird

Phenological changes have been observed in a variety of systems over the past century. There is concern that, as a consequence, ecological interactions are becoming increasingly mismatched in time, with negative consequences for ecological function. Significant spatial heterogeneity (inter-site) and temporal variability (inter-annual) can make it difficult to separate intrinsic, extrinsic and stochastic drivers of phenological variability. The goal of this study was to understand the timing and variability in breeding phenology of Adélie penguins under fixed environmental conditions and to use those data to identify a "null model" appropriate for disentangling the sources of variation in wild populations. Data on clutch initiation were collected from both wild and captive populations of Adélie penguins. Clutch initiation in the captive population was modelled as a function of year, individual and age to better understand phenological patterns observed in the wild population. Captive populations displayed as much inter-annual variability in breeding phenology as wild populations, suggesting that variability in breeding phenology is the norm and thus may be an unreliable indicator of environmental forcing. The distribution of clutch initiation dates was found to be moderately asymmetric (right skewed) both in the wild and in captivity, consistent with the pattern expected under social facilitation. The role of stochasticity in phenological processes has heretofore been largely ignored. However, these results suggest that inter-annual variability in breeding phenology can arise independent of any environmental or demographic drivers and that synchronous breeding can enhance inherent stochasticity. This complicates efforts to relate phenological variation to environmental variability in the wild. Accordingly, we must be careful to consider random forcing in phenological processes, lest we fit models to data dominated by random noise. This is particularly true for colonial species where breeding synchrony may outweigh each individual's effort to time breeding with optimal environmental conditions. Our study highlights the importance of identifying appropriate null models for studying phenology.

Pathogen transmission at stage-structured infectious patches: Killers and vaccinators

Spatial localization of an obligate-killing, free-living pathogen generates a landscape of patches where new infections occur. As an infectious patch ages, both pathogen exposure at the patch and the probability of lethal infection following exposure can decline. We model stage-structured infectious patches, where non-lethal exposure can naturally "vaccinate" susceptible hosts. We let the between-stage difference in pathogen transmission, and then the between-stage difference in patch virulence, increase independently of other parameters. Effects of increasing either between-stage difference (about a fixed mean) depend on the probability a patch transitions from the first to second stage, i.e., the chance that a killer patch becomes a vaccinator. For slower stage transition, greater between-stage differences decreased susceptibles, and increased both resistant-host and killer patch numbers. But our examples reveal that each effect can be reversed when between-stage transition occurs more rapidly. For sufficiently rapid stage transition, increased between-stage virulence differences can lead to pathogen extinction, and leave the host at disease-free equilibrium. The model's general significance lies in demonstrating how epidemiological variation among sites of environmentally transmitted disease can strongly govern host-parasite dynamics.

The importance of the altricial - precocial spectrum for social complexity in mammals and birds - a review

Various types of long-term stable relationships that individuals uphold, including cooperation and competition between group members, define social complexity in vertebrates. Numerous life history, physiological and cognitive traits have been shown to affect, or to be affected by, such social relationships. As such, differences in developmental modes, i.e. the ‘altricial-precocial’ spectrum, may play an important role in understanding the interspecific variation in occurrence of social interactions, but to what extent this is the case is unclear because the role of the developmental mode has not been studied directly in across-species studies of sociality. In other words, although there are studies on the effects of developmental mode on brain size, on the effects of brain size on cognition, and on the effects of cognition on social complexity, there are no studies directly investigating the link between developmental mode and social complexity. This is surprising because developmental differences play a significant role in the evolution of, for example, brain size, which is in turn considered an essential building block with respect to social complexity. Here, we compiled an overview of studies on various aspects of the complexity of social systems in altricial and precocial mammals and birds. Although systematic studies are scarce and do not allow for a quantitative comparison, we show that several forms of social relationships and cognitive abilities occur in species along the entire developmental spectrum. Based on the existing evidence it seems that differences in developmental modes play a minor role in whether or not individuals or species are able to meet the cognitive capabilities and requirements for maintaining complex social relationships. Given the scarcity of comparative studies and potential subtle differences, however, we suggest that future studies should consider developmental differences to determine whether our finding is general or whether some of the vast variation in social complexity across species can be explained by developmental mode. This would allow a more detailed assessment of the relative importance of developmental mode in the evolution of vertebrate social systems.

Variability in primary productivity determines metapopulation dynamics

Temporal variability in primary productivity can change habitat quality for consumer species by affecting the energy levels available as food resources. However, it remains unclear how habitat-quality fluctuations may determine the dynamics of spatially structured populations, where the effects of habitat size, quality and isolation have been customarily assessed assuming static habitats. We present the first empirical evaluation on the effects of stochastic fluctuations in primary productivity—a major outcome of ecosystem functions—on the metapopulation dynamics of a primary consumer. A unique 13-year dataset from an herbivore rodent was used to test the hypothesis that inter-annual variations in primary productivity determine spatiotemporal habitat occupancy patterns and colonization and extinction processes. Inter-annual variability in productivity and in the growing season phenology significantly influenced habitat colonization patterns and occupancy dynamics. These effects lead to changes in connectivity to other potentially occupied habitat patches, which then feed back into occupancy dynamics. According to the results, the dynamics of primary productivity accounted for more than 50% of the variation in occupancy probability, depending on patch size and landscape configuration. Evidence connecting primary productivity dynamics and spatiotemporal population processes has broad implications for metapopulation persistence in fluctuating and changing environments.

Migratory herds of wildebeests and zebras indirectly affect calf survival of giraffes

In long‐distance migratory systems, local fluctuations in the predator–prey ratio can exhibit extreme variability within a single year depending upon the seasonal location of migratory species. Such systems offer an opportunity to empirically investigate cyclic population density effects on short‐term food web interactions by taking advantage of the large seasonal shifts in migratory prey biomass.

We utilized a large‐mammal predator–prey savanna food web to evaluate support for hypotheses relating to the indirect effects of “apparent competition” and “apparent mutualism” from migratory ungulate herds on survival of resident megaherbivore calves, mediated by their shared predator. African lions (Panthera leo) are generalist predators whose primary, preferred prey are wildebeests (Connochaetes taurinus) and zebras (Equus quagga), while lion predation on secondary prey such as giraffes (Giraffa camelopardalis) may change according to the relative abundance of the primary prey species.

We used demographic data from five subpopulations of giraffes in the Tarangire Ecosystem of Tanzania, East Africa, to test hypotheses relating to direct predation and indirect effects of large migratory herds on calf survival of a resident megaherbivore. We examined neonatal survival via apparent reproduction of 860 adult females, and calf survival of 449 giraffe calves, during three precipitation seasons over 3 years, seeking evidence of some effect on neonate and calf survival as a consequence of the movements of large herds of migratory ungulates.

We found that local lion predation pressure (lion density divided by primary prey density) was significantly negatively correlated with giraffe neonatal and calf survival probabilities. This supports the apparent mutualism hypothesis that the presence of migratory ungulates reduces lion predation on giraffe calves.

Natural predation had a significant effect on giraffe calf and neonate survival, and could significantly affect giraffe population dynamics. If wildebeest and zebra populations in this ecosystem continue to decline as a result of increasingly disrupted migrations and poaching, then giraffe calves will face increased predation pressure as the predator–prey ratio increases. Our results suggest that the widespread population declines observed in many migratory systems are likely to trigger demographic impacts in other species due to indirect effects like those shown here.

Investigating temporary acyclicity in a captive group of Asian elephants (Elephas maximus): Relationship between management, adrenal activity and social factors

Routine faecal steroid monitoring has been used to aid the management of five captive Asian elephant (Elephas maximus) females at Chester Zoo, UK, since 2007. Progestagen analysis initially revealed synchronised oestrous cycles among all females. However, a 14- to 20-week period of temporary acyclicity subsequently occurred in three females, following several management changes (increased training, foot-care and intermittent matriarch removal for health reasons) and the initiation of pregnancy in another female. The aim of this study was to retrospectively investigate whether these management changes were related to increased adrenal activity and disruption of ovarian activity, or whether social factors may have been involved in the temporary cessation of cyclicity. Faecal samples collected every other day were analysed to investigate whether glucocorticoid metabolites were related to reproductive status (pregnant, cycling, acyclic) or management (training, foot-care, matriarch presence). Routine training and foot-care were not associated with adrenal activity; however, intensive foot-care to treat an abscess in one female was associated with increased glucocorticoid concentration. Matriarch presence influenced adrenal activity in three females, being lower when the matriarch was separated from the group at night compared to being always present. However, in the females that exhibited temporary acyclicity, there was no consistent relationship between glucocorticoids and cyclicity state. Although the results of this study do not fully explain this occurrence, the highly synchronised nature of oestrous cycles within this group, and the concurrent acyclicity in three females, raises the question of whether social factors could have been involved in the temporary disruption of ovarian activity.

Predator swamping and supplementary feeding do not improve reintroduction success for a threatened Australian mammal, Bettongia lesueur

Broad-scale Australian mammal declines following European settlement have resulted in many species becoming regionally or globally extinct. Attempts to reintroduce native mammals are often unsuccessful due to a suboptimal number of founders being used, high rates of predation and a lack of knowledge of the reintroduction biology for the species concerned. We trialled predator swamping and supplementary feeding in an attempt to offset predation and improve reintroduction success for the burrowing bettong (Bettongia lesueur) in arid South Australia. We compared population longevity of a large release group (1266 animals) with five releases of smaller groups (~50 animals at each). We compared release sites with (n = 5) and without (n = 1) supplementary food to determine whether site fidelity, body condition and reproduction were affected, and whether these traits aided population establishment. Predator swamping did not facilitate reintroduction success, with no bettongs detected more than 122 days after release. While supplementary food increased site fidelity and persistence at release sites, bettongs failed to establish successfully at any site. Neither predator swamping nor supplementary feeding enhanced reintroduction success at our sites but results suggested that supplementary feeding should be explored as an aid to reintroduction success for Australian mammals.

How Rainfall Variation Influences Reproductive Patterns of African Savanna Ungulates in an Equatorial Region Where Photoperiod Variation Is Absent

In high temperate latitudes, ungulates generally give birth within a narrow time window when conditions are optimal for offspring survival in spring or early summer, and use changing photoperiod to time conceptions so as to anticipate these conditions. However, in low tropical latitudes day length variation is minimal, and rainfall variation makes the seasonal cycle less predictable. Nevertheless, several ungulate species retain narrow birth peaks under such conditions, while others show births spread quite widely through the year. We investigated how within-year and between-year variation in rainfall influenced the reproductive timing of four ungulate species showing these contrasting patterns in the Masai Mara region of Kenya. All four species exhibited birth peaks during the putative optimal period in the early wet season. For hartebeest and impala, the birth peak was diffuse and offspring were born throughout the year. In contrast, topi and warthog showed a narrow seasonal concentration of births, with conceptions suppressed once monthly rainfall fell below a threshold level. High rainfall in the previous season and high early rains in the current year enhanced survival into the juvenile stage for all the species except impala. Our findings reveal how rainfall variation affecting grass growth and hence herbivore nutrition can govern the reproductive phenology of ungulates in tropical latitudes where day length variation is minimal. The underlying mechanism seems to be the suppression of conceptions once nutritional gains become insufficient. Through responding proximally to within-year variation in rainfall, tropical savanna ungulates are less likely to be affected adversely by the consequences of global warming for vegetation phenology than northern ungulates showing more rigid photoperiodic control over reproductive timing.

Photosynthetic pigments estimate diet quality in forage and feces of elk (Cervus elaphus)

Understanding the nutritional dynamics of herbivores living in highly seasonal landscapes remains a central challenge in foraging ecology with few tools available for describing variation in selection for dormant versus growing vegetation. Here, we tested whether the concentrations of photosynthetic pigments (chlorophylls and carotenoids) in forage and feces of elk (Cervus elaphus L., 1785) were correlated with other commonly used indices of forage quality (digestibility, energy content, neutral detergent fiber (NDF), and nitrogen content) and diet quality (fecal nitrogen, fecal NDF, and botanical composition of the diet). Photosynthetic pigment concentrations were strongly correlated with nitrogen content, gross energy, digestibility, and NDF of elk forages, particularly in spring. Winter and spring variation in fecal pigments and fecal nitrogen was explained with nearly identical linear models estimating the effects of season, sex, and day-of-spring, although models of fecal pigments were consistently a better fit (r2adjusted = 0.379–0.904) and estimated effect sizes more precisely than models of fecal nitrogen (r2adjusted = 0.247–0.773). A positive correlation with forage digestibility, nutrient concentration, and (or) botanical composition of the diet implies fecal photosynthetic pigments may be a sensitive and informative descriptor of diet selection in free-ranging herbivores.

Reproductive seasonality in African ungulates in relation to rainfall

Context Reproductive seasonality in ungulates has important fitness consequences but its relationship to resource seasonality is not yet fully understood, especially for ungulates inhabiting equatorial environments. Aims We test hypotheses concerning synchronisation of conception or parturition peaks among African ungulates with seasonal peaks in forage quality and quantity, indexed by rainfall. Methods We relate monthly apparent fecundity and juvenile recruitment rates to monthly rainfall for six ungulate species inhabiting the Masai Mara National Reserve (Mara) of Kenya, using cross-correlation analysis and distributed lag non-linear models. We compare the phenology and synchrony of breeding among the Mara ungulates with those for other parts of equatorial East Africa, with bimodal rainfall and less seasonal forage variation, and for subtropical southern Africa, with unimodal rainfall distribution and greater seasonal forage variation. Key results Births were more synchronised for topi, warthog and zebra than for hartebeest, impala and giraffe in the Mara, and for impala and hartebeest in southern than in eastern Africa. This pattern is likely to reflect regional differences in climate and plant phenology, hider–follower dichotomy and grazing versus browsing. All six species except the browsing giraffe apparently time the conception to occur in one wet season and births to occur just before the onset or during the next wet season, so as to maximise high-quality forage intake during conception and parturition. Fecundity and recruitment rates among the African ungulates peak at intermediate levels of rainfall and are reduced at low or excessive levels of rainfall. Fecundity rate is most strongly positively correlated with rainfall pre-conception, during conception and during early gestation, followed by rainfall at about the time of parturition for all the grazers. For giraffe, fecundity rate is most strongly correlated with rainfall during the gestation period. Conclusions Rainfall seasonality strongly influences reproductive seasonality and juvenile recruitment among African ungulates. The interaction of the rainfall influence with life-history traits and other factors leads to wide interspecific and regional variation. Implications Global climate change, especially widening annual rainfall variation expected to result from global warming, could reduce the predictability of the timing of peak forage availability and quality based on meteorological cues, the length of time with adequate nutrition or both, and hence reduce reproductive success among tropical ungulates.

Regional differences in seasonal timing of rainfall discriminate between genetically distinct East African giraffe taxa

Masai (Giraffa tippelskirchi), Reticulated (G. reticulata) and Rothschild's (G. camelopardalis) giraffe lineages in East Africa are morphologically and genetically distinct, yet in Kenya their ranges abut. This raises the question of how divergence is maintained among populations of a large mammal capable of long-distance travel, and which readily hybridize in zoos. Here we test four hypotheses concerning the maintenance of the phylogeographic boundaries among the three taxa: 1) isolation-by-distance; 2) physical barriers to dispersal; 3) general habitat differences resulting in habitat segregation; or 4) regional differences in the seasonal timing of rainfall, and resultant timing of browse availability. We used satellite remotely sensed and climate data to characterize the environment at the locations of genotyped giraffes. Canonical variate analysis, random forest algorithms, and generalized dissimilarity modelling were employed in a landscape genetics framework to identify the predictor variables that best explained giraffes' genetic divergence. We found that regional differences in the timing of precipitation, and resulting green-up associated with the abundance of browse, effectively discriminate between taxa. Local habitat conditions, topographic and human-induced barriers, and geographic distance did not aid in discriminating among lineages. Our results suggest that selection associated with regional timing of events in the annual climatic cycle may help maintain genetic and phenotypic divergence in giraffes. We discuss potential mechanisms of maintaining divergence, and suggest that synchronization of reproduction with seasonal rainfall cycles that are geographically distinct may contribute to reproductive isolation. Coordination of weaning with green-up cycles could minimize the costs of lactation and predation on the young. Our findings are consistent with theory and empirical results demonstrating the efficacy of seasonal or phenologically dictated selection pressures in contributing to the reproductive isolation of parapatric populations.

Asynchronous food-web pathways could buffer the response of Serengeti predators to El Niño Southern Oscillation

Understanding how entire ecosystems maintain stability in the face of climatic and human disturbance is one of the most fundamental challenges in ecology. Theory suggests that a crucial factor determining the degree of ecosystem stability is simply the degree of synchrony with which different species in ecological food webs respond to environmental stochasticity. Ecosystems in which all food-web pathways are affected similarly by external disturbance should amplify variability in top carnivore abundance over time due to population interactions, whereas ecosystems in which a large fraction of pathways are nonresponsive or even inversely responsive to external disturbance will have more constant levels of abundance at upper trophic levels. To test the mechanism underlying this hypothesis, we used over half a century of demographic data for multiple species in the Serengeti (Tanzania) ecosystem to measure the degree of synchrony to variation imposed by an external environmental driver, the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). ENSO effects were mediated largely via changes in dry-season vs. wet-season rainfall and consequent changes in vegetation availability, propagating via bottom-up effects to higher levels of the Serengeti food web to influence herbivores, predators and parasites. Some species in the Serengeti food web responded to the influence of ENSO in opposite ways, whereas other species were insensitive to variation in ENSO. Although far from conclusive, our results suggest that a diffuse mixture of herbivore responses could help buffer top carnivores, such as Serengeti lions, from variability in climate. Future global climate changes that favor some pathways over others, however, could alter the effectiveness of such processes in the future.

Responses of phenology, synchrony and fecundity of breeding by African ungulates to interannual variation in rainfall

Context The timing and synchrony of births are important components of fitness among ungulates living in seasonal environments. Aims We investigated the effects of rainfall variation on interannual variation in the timing, synchrony and prolificity of births for six African ungulate species inhabiting an equatorial savanna with bimodal rainfall. Methods We analyse how seasonally and aseasonally breeding African savanna ungulates maintain reproductive success despite rainfall constraints, and adjust the phenology, synchrony and fecundity of their breeding to track interannual variation in rainfall. We use data on six ungulate species inhabiting the Masai Mara National Reserve (Mara) of Kenya to test five hypotheses concerning the influences of seasonality in resources, gestation length and the hider–follower strategy on the timing, synchrony and prolificity of calving. Key results Births were more synchronised for topi, warthog and zebra than for hartebeest, impala, and giraffe. Births occurred in most months, but tended to peak during the early rains when forage quality peaks for all species. The rainfall component exerting the strongest influence on timing of births varied with species. Gestation length, the hider–follower dichotomy, and hence predation, had apparently weak influences on birth synchrony. In drought years with nutritionally deficient forage, births were delayed, less synchronised and fewer. This portrayed protracted calving seasons, suppression of early conceptions, and delayed onset of births, calf losses, reproductive pauses or failures. However, in rainy years with sufficient forage, births peaked early, or were not delayed, and the synchronicity of calving increased for all species. This suggested early breeding by primiparous females; or higher fertility early in the mating period. The prolificity of calving increased with rainfall for topi and warthog but decreased for the remaining species. Conclusions Marked interannual variability in rainfall, plant phenology and forage sufficiency in tropical savannas impose strong constraints on ungulates, favouring flexible timing of births over strictly seasonal reproduction characteristic of temperate latitudes with predictable seasonal resource cues. Implications Despite high flexibility in their timing of births, widening rainfall variability expected to result from global warming could lower reproductive success of tropical ungulates by lowering their fecundity and survival prospects of their calves if droughts became more frequent and severe.

Reassessing the determinants of breeding synchrony in ungulates

Predicting the consequences of climate change is a major challenge in ecology and wildlife management. While the impact of changes in climatic conditions on distribution ranges has been documented for many organisms, the consequences of changes in resource dynamics for species' overall performance have seldom been investigated. This study addresses this gap by identifying the factors shaping the reproductive synchrony of ungulates. In temporally-variable environments, reproductive phenology of individuals is a key determinant of fitness, with the timing of reproduction affecting their reproductive output and future performance. We used a satellite-based index of resource availability to explore how the level of seasonality and inter-annual variability in resource dynamics affect birth season length of ungulate populations. Contrary to what was previously thought, we found that both the degree of seasonal fluctuation in resource dynamics and inter-annual changes in resource availability influence the degree of birth synchrony within wild ungulate populations. Our results highlight how conclusions from previous interspecific analyses, which did not consider the existence of shared life-history among species, should be treated with caution. They also support the existence of a multi-faceted link between temporal variation in resource availability and breeding synchrony in terrestrial mammals, and increase our understanding of the mechanisms shaping reproductive synchrony in large herbivores, thus enhancing our ability to predict the potential impacts of climate change on biodiversity.