Linking occurrence and fitness to persistence: habitat-based approach for endangered greater sage-grouse

Linking resource selection to population performance spatially to identify species' habitat across broad scales: An example of greater sage-grouse in a distinct population segment

Management decisions often focus on the habitat selection of marked individuals without considering the contribution to demographic performance in selected habitats. Because habitat selection is not always adaptive, understanding the spatial relationship between habitat selection and demographic performance is critical to management decisions. Mapping both habitat selection and demographic performance for species of conservation concern can help guide population-scale conservation efforts. We demonstrate a quantitative approach to differentiate areas supporting selection and survival at large spatial extents. As a case study, we applied this approach to greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus; hereafter, sage-grouse), an indicator species for sagebrush ecosystems. We evaluated both habitat selection and survival across multiple reproductive life stages (nesting, brood-rearing) in the Bi-State Distinct Population Segment, a genetically distinct and geographically isolated population of sage-grouse on the southwestern edge of the species' range. Our approach allowed us to identify both mismatches between selection and survival and trade-offs between reproductive life stages. These findings suggest resource demands vary across time, with predation risk being a dominant driver of habitat selection during nesting and early brood-rearing periods when chicks are smaller and flightless, whereas access to forage resources becomes more important during late brood rearing when resources become increasingly limited. Moving beyond identifying and managing habitat solely based on species occupancy or use by incorporating demographic measures allows managers to tailor actions to their specific goals; for example, protections of areas that support high selection and high survival and restoration actions focused on increasing survival in areas of high selection and low survival.

Spatial roost networks and resource selection of female wild turkeys

Wildlife demography is influenced by behavioural decisions, with sleep being a crucial avian behaviour. Avian species use roost sites to minimize thermoregulation costs, predation risk and enhance foraging efficiency. Sleep locations are often reused, forming networks within the home range. Our study, focusing on female eastern wild turkeys (Meleagris gallopavo silvestris) during the reproductive season, used social network analysis to quantify both roost site selection and network structure. We identified roost networks which were composed of a small percentage of hub roost sites connecting satellite roosts. Hub roosts were characterized by greater values of betweenness (β = 0.62, s.e. = 0.02), closeness (β = 0.59, s.e. = 0.03) and eigenvalue centrality (β = 1.15, s.e. = 0.05), indicating their importance as connectors and proximity to the network's functional centre. The probability of a roost being a hub increased significantly with greater eigenvalue centrality. Female wild turkeys consistently chose roost sites at lower elevations and with greater topographical ruggedness. Hub roost probability was higher near secondary roads and further from water. Our research highlights well-organized roost site networks around hub roosts, emphasizing the importance of further investigations into how these networks influence conspecific interactions, reproduction and resource utilization in wild turkeys.

Beyond overlap: Considering habitat preference and fitness outcomes in the umbrella species concept

Umbrella species and other surrogate-species approaches to conservation provide an appealing framework to extend the reach of conservation efforts beyond single species. For the umbrella species concept to be effective, populations of multiple species of concern must persist in areas protected on behalf of the umbrella species. Most assessments of the concept, however, focus exclusively on geographic overlap among umbrella and background species, and not measures that affect population persistence (e.g., habitat quality or fitness). We quantified the congruence between the habitat preferences and nesting success of a high-profile umbrella species (greater sage-grouse, Centrocercus urophasianus, hereafter "sage-grouse"), and three sympatric species of declining songbirds (Brewer's sparrow Spizella breweri, sage thasher Oreoscoptes montanus, and vesper sparrow Pooecetes gramineus) in central Wyoming, USA during 2012 - 2013. We used machine-learning methods to create data-driven predictions of sage-grouse nest-site selection and nest survival probabilities by modeling field-collected sage-grouse data relative to habitat attributes. We then used field-collected songbird data to assess whether high-quality sites for songbirds aligned with those of sage-grouse. Nest sites selected by songbirds did not coincide with sage-grouse nesting preferences, with the exception that Brewer's sparrows preferred similar nest sites to sage-grouse in 2012. Moreover, the areas that produced higher rates of songbird nest survival were unrelated to those for sage-grouse. Our findings suggest that management actions at local scales that prioritize sage-grouse nesting habitat will not necessarily enhance the reproductive success of sagebrush-associated songbirds. Measures implemented to conserve sage-grouse and other purported umbrella species at broad spatial scales likely overlap the distribution of many species, however, broad-scale overlap may not translate to fine-scale conservation benefit beyond the umbrella species itself. The maintenance of microhabitat heterogeneity important for a diversity of species of concern will be critical for a more-holistic application of the umbrella species concept.

Backpack satellite transmitters reduce survival but not nesting propensity or success of greater sage-grouse

Telemetry technology is ubiquitous for studying the behavior and demography of wildlife, including the use of traditional very high frequency (VHF) radio telemetry and more recent methods that record animal locations using global positioning systems (GPS). Satellite-based GPS telemetry allows researchers to collect high spatial-temporal resolution data remotely but may also come with additional costs. For example, recent studies from the southern Great Basin suggested GPS transmitters attached via backpacks may reduce the survival of greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) relative to VHF transmitters attached via collars that have been in use for decades. While some evidence suggests GPS backpacks reduce survival, no studies have examined the effects of GPS backpacks on breeding behavior and success. Therefore, we compared survival, breeding behavior, and nest success of sage-grouse hens marked with both VHF collars and GPS backpack transmitter over a 7-year period in central Idaho, USA. GPS backpacks reduced spring-summer survival of sage-grouse hens relative to hens with VHF collars, where daily mortality probability was 68%-82% higher from March 1 to August 1. Yet satellite GPS backpacks did not consistently affect nest success or the likelihood or timing of nest initiation relative to VHF collars. Daily nest survival varied annually and with timing of nest initiation and nest age, but marginal effects of transmitter type were statistically insignificant and interactions between transmitter type and study year produced no meaningful patterns. Our results corroborate recent studies for the effect of satellite GPS backpacks on sage-grouse survival, but also suggest that these transmitters do not appear to affect components of fecundity. Our results therefore add important context to recent debate surrounding the effects of GPS backpacks on sage-grouse, and the relative strengths and weaknesses of different transmitter types for understanding behavior and population dynamics.

Changes in selection of resources with reproductive state in a montane ungulate

Animals select habitats based on food, water, space, and cover. Each of those components are essential to the ability of an individual to survive and reproduce in a particular habitat. Selection of resources is linked to reproductive fitness and individuals likely vary in how they select resources relative to their reproductive state: during pregnancy, while provisioning young when nutritional needs of the mother are high, but offspring are vulnerable to predation, or if they lose young to mortality. We investigated the effects of reproductive state on selection of resources by maternal female desert bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis nelsoni) by comparing selection during the last trimester of gestation, following parturition when females were provisioning dependent young, and if the female lost an offspring. We captured, and recaptured each year, 32 female bighorn sheep at Lone Mountain, Nevada, during 2016-2018. Captured females were fit with GPS collars and those that were pregnant received vaginal implant transmitters. We used a Bayesian approach to estimate differences in selection between females provisioning and not provisioning offspring, as well as the length of time it took for females with offspring to return levels of selection similar to that observed prior to parturition. Females that were not provisioning offspring selected areas with higher risk of predation, but greater nutritional resources than those that were provisioning dependent young. When females were provisioning young immediately following parturition, females selected areas that were safe from predators, but had lower nutritional resources. Females displayed varying rates of return to selection strategies associated with access to nutritional resources as young grew and became more agile and less dependent on mothers. We observed clear and substantial shifts in selection of resources associated with reproductive state, and females exhibited tradeoffs in favor of areas that were safer from predators when provisioning dependent young despite loss of nutritional resources to support lactation. As young grew and became less vulnerable to predators, females returned to levels of selection that provided access to nutritional resources to restore somatic reserves lost during lactation.

A Bayesian multi-stage modelling framework to evaluate impacts of energy development on wildlife populations: an application to greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus)

Increased demand for domestic production of renewable energy has led to expansion of energy infrastructure across western North America. Much of the western U.S. comprises remote landscapes that are home to a variety of vegetation communities and wildlife species, including the imperiled sagebrush ecosystem and indicator species such as greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus). Geothermal sources in particular have potential for continued development across the western U.S. but impacts to greater sage-grouse and other species are unknown. To address this information gap, we describe a novel two-pronged methodology that analyzes impacts of geothermal energy production on pattern and process of greater sage-grouse populations using (a) before-after control-impact (BACI) measures of population growth and lek absence rates and (b) concurrent-to-operation evaluations of demographic rates. Growth and absence rate analyses utilized 14 years of lek survey data collected prior (2005-2011) and concurrent (2012-2018) to geothermal operations at two sites in Nevada, USA. Demographic analyses utilized relocation data, restricted inference to concurrent years, and incorporated 17 additional control sites. Demographic results were applied to >100 potential geothermal sites distributed across the study region to generate spatially explicit predictions of unrealized population-level impacts.•State-space and generalized linear models yield estimates of population growth and lek absence rates, respectively, before and after the onset of geothermal energy production; distances ranging from 2-30 km are evaluated as alternative control-impact footprint hypotheses; this provides inference about the spatial extent as well as the magnitude of impacts associated with geothermal development.•Estimation of important population demographic rates are implemented to investigate the processes by which geothermal energy development might reduce population growth; independent estimates of confounding, environmental effects from 17 control sites are made spatially explicit within 'impact' models to establish baseline conditions otherwise masked by collinearity.•Population matrix models are built using estimates from demographic analyses to provide landscape mapping of impacts associated with potential geothermal sites.

Territory and population attributes affect Florida scrub-jay fecundity in fire-adapted ecosystems

Fecundity, the number of young produced by a breeding pair during a breeding season, is a primary component in evolutionary and ecological theory and applications. Fecundity can be influenced by many environmental factors and requires long-term study due to the range of variation in ecosystem dynamics. Fecundity data often include a large proportion of zeros when many pairs fail to produce any young during a breeding season due to nest failure or when all young die independently after fledging. We conducted color banding and monthly censuses of Florida scrub-jays (Aphelocoma coerulescens) across 31 years, 15 populations, and 761 territories along central Florida's Atlantic coast. We quantified how fecundity (juveniles/pair-year) was influenced by habitat quality, presence/absence of nonbreeders, population density, breeder experience, and rainfall, with a zero-inflated Bayesian hierarchical model including both a Bernoulli (e.g., brood success) and a Poisson (counts of young) submodel, and random effects for year, population, and territory. The results identified the importance of increasing "strong" quality habitat, which was a mid-successional state related to fire frequency and extent, because strong territories, and the proportion of strong territories in the overall population, influenced fecundity of breeding pairs. Populations subject to supplementary feeding also had greater fecundity. Territory size, population density, breeder experience, and rainfall surprisingly had no or small effects. Different mechanisms appeared to cause annual variation in fecundity, as estimates of random effects were not correlated between the success and count submodels. The increased fecundity for pairs with nonbreeders, compared to pairs without, identified empirical research needed to understand how the proportion of low-quality habitats influences population recovery and sustainability, because dispersal into low-quality habitats can drain nonbreeders from strong territories and decrease overall fecundity. We also describe how long-term study resulted in reversals in our understanding because of complications involving habitat quality, sociobiology, and population density.

Herbivory Amplifies Adverse Effects of Drought on Seedling Recruitment in a Keystone Species of Western North American Rangelands

Biotic interactions can affect a plant's ability to withstand drought. Such an effect may impact the restoration of the imperiled western North American sagebrush steppe, where seedlings are exposed to summer drought. This study investigated the impact of herbivory on seedlings' drought tolerance for a keystone species in this steppe, the shrub Artemisia tridentata. Herbivory effects were investigated in two field experiments where seedlings were without tree protectors or within plastic or metal-mesh tree protectors. Treatment effects were statistically evaluated on herbivory, survival, leaf water potential, and inflorescence development. Herbivory occurrence was 80% higher in seedlings without protectors. This damage occurred in early spring and was likely caused by ground squirrels. Most plants recovered, but herbivory was associated with higher mortality during the summer when seedlings experienced water potentials between -2.5 and -7 MPa. However, there were no differences in water potential between treatments, suggesting that the browsed plants were less tolerant of the low water potentials experienced. Twenty months after outplanting, the survival of plants without protectors was 40 to 60% lower than those with protectors. The percentage of live plants developing inflorescences was approximately threefold higher in plants with protectors. Overall, spring herbivory amplified susceptibility to drought and delayed reproductive development.

Survival and reproduction in Arctic caribou are associated with summer forage and insect harassment

Investigators have speculated that the climate-driven “greening of the Arctic” may benefit barren-ground caribou populations, but paradoxically many populations have declined in recent years. This pattern has raised concerns about the influence of summer habitat conditions on caribou demographic rates, and how populations may be impacted in the future. The short Arctic summer provides caribou with important forage resources but is also the time they are exposed to intense harassment by insects, factors which are both being altered by longer, warmer growing seasons. To better understand the effects of summer forage and insect activity on Arctic caribou demographic rates, we investigated the influence of estimated forage biomass, digestible energy (DE), digestible nitrogen (DN), and mosquito activity on the reproductive success and survival of adult females in the Central Arctic Herd on the North Slope of Alaska. We tested the hypotheses that greater early summer DN would increase subsequent reproduction (parturition and late June calving success) while greater biomass and DE would increase adult survival (September–May), and that elevated mosquito activity would reduce both demographic rates. Because the period when abundant forage DN is limited and overlaps with the period of mosquito harassment, we also expected years with low DN and high harassment to synergistically reduce caribou reproductive success. Examining these relationships at the individual-level, using GPS-collared females, and at the population-level, using long-term monitoring data, we generally found support for our expectations. Greater early summer DN was associated with increased subsequent calving success, while greater summer biomass was associated with increased adult survival. Mosquito activity was associated with reductions in adult female parturition, late June calving success, and survival, and in years with low DN, had compounding effects on subsequent late June calving success. Our findings indicate that summer nutrition and mosquito activity collectively influence the demographic rates of Arctic caribou, and may impact the dynamics of populations in the future under changing environmental conditions.

Targeting Sagebrush (Artemisia Spp.) Restoration Following Wildfire with Greater Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus Urophasianus) Nest Selection and Survival Models

Unprecedented conservation efforts for sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) ecosystems across the western United States have been catalyzed by risks from escalated wildfire activity that reduces habitat for sagebrush-obligate species such as Greater Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus). However, post-fire restoration is challenged by spatial variation in ecosystem processes influencing resilience to disturbance and resistance to non-native invasive species, and spatial and temporal lags between slower sagebrush recovery processes and faster demographic responses of sage-grouse to loss of important habitat. Decision-support frameworks that account for these factors can help users strategically apply restoration efforts by predicting short and long-term ecological benefits of actions. Here, we developed a framework that strategically targets burned areas for restoration actions (e.g., seeding or planting sagebrush) that have the greatest potential to positively benefit sage-grouse populations through time. Specifically, we estimated sagebrush recovery following wildfire and risk of non-native annual grass invasion under four scenarios: passive recovery, grazing exclusion, active restoration with seeding, and active restoration with seedling transplants. We then applied spatial predictions of integrated nest site selection and survival models before wildfire, immediately following wildfire, and at 30 and 50 years post-wildfire based on each restoration scenario and measured changes in habitat. Application of this framework coupled with strategic planting designs aimed at developing patches of nesting habitat may help increase operational resilience for fire-impacted sagebrush ecosystems.

Comparing Methods of Defining Priority Areas for Greater Sage-Grouse

Wildlife managers delineate priority areas for species to define critical habitat and to prioritize management efforts. Each method used to identify priority areas involves data that can be unavailable or expensive to obtain. Therefore, it is of interest to compare spatial efficiency between methods used for defining priority areas. We compared priority areas created using different methods and data types. We used resource selection function (RSF) models to predict areas of high use and generated a map depicting ≥ 90% predicted use in three seasons; it was 1,143 km2, encompassed 91% of nests, 68% of summer locations, and 71% of winter locations. We compared the RSF priority area to priority areas developed using two alternative methods: (1) modified conservation buffer, and (2) utilization distribution (UD) models. The modified conservation buffer method was used by South Dakota Game, Fish and Parks in 2014 to delineate a priority area by buffering active lek sites by 6.4 km, including connectivity corridors defined via expert opinion, and known high use areas. The priority area generated by the modified conservation buffer method was 3,977 km2, encompassed 95% of nest locations, 92% of spring/summer locations, and 99% of winter locations. Lastly, we developed a priority area using combined UDs from radio-tracking data gathered during spring/summer, and winter and included a lek buffer encompassing 90% of known nest-sites. This priority area was 3,498 km2, encompassed 99% of nests, 98% of spring/summer locations, and 97% of winter locations. The priority area generated by RSF models was the smallest and encompassed the least number of nests and spring/summer and winter locations but was considered the most spatially efficient; it had the most nests, spring/summer locations, and winter locations per 100 km2. The UD and modified conservation buffer methods created priority areas that were similar in size and spatial efficiency. The modified conservation buffer method encompassed >90% of known sage-grouse locations and nests, indicating that in the absence of detailed movement data and more sophisticated modeling, the method can be sufficient in developing an adequate priority area.

Statistical considerations of nonrandom treatment applications reveal region-wide benefits of widespread post-fire restoration action

Accurate predictions of ecological restoration outcomes are needed across the increasingly large landscapes requiring treatment following disturbances. However, observational studies often fail to account for nonrandom treatment application, which can result in invalid inference. Examining a spatiotemporally extensive management treatment involving post-fire seeding of declining sagebrush shrubs across semiarid areas of the western USA over two decades, we quantify drivers and consequences of selection biases in restoration using remotely sensed data. From following more than 1,500 wildfires, we find treatments were disproportionately applied in more stressful, degraded ecological conditions. Failure to incorporate unmeasured drivers of treatment allocation led to the conclusion that costly, widespread seedings were unsuccessful; however, after considering sources of bias, restoration positively affected sagebrush recovery. Treatment effects varied with climate, indicating prioritization criteria for interventions. Our findings revise the perspective that post-fire sagebrush seedings have been broadly unsuccessful and demonstrate how selection biases can pose substantive inferential hazards in observational studies of restoration efficacy and the development of restoration theory.

Scale-dependent influence of the sagebrush community on genetic connectivity of the sagebrush obligate Gunnison sage-grouse

Habitat fragmentation and degradation impacts an organism's ability to navigate the landscape, ultimately resulting in decreased gene flow and increased extinction risk. Understanding how landscape composition impacts gene flow (i.e., connectivity) and interacts with scale is essential to conservation decision‐making. We used a landscape genetics approach implementing a recently developed statistical model based on the generalized Wishart probability distribution to identify the primary landscape features affecting gene flow and estimate the degree to which each component influences connectivity for Gunnison sage‐grouse (Centrocercus minimus). We were interested in two spatial scales: among distinct populations rangewide and among leks (i.e., breeding grounds) within the largest population, Gunnison Basin. Populations and leks are nested within a landscape fragmented by rough terrain and anthropogenic features, although requisite sagebrush habitat is more contiguous within populations. Our best fit models for each scale confirm the importance of sagebrush habitat in connectivity, although the important sagebrush characteristics differ. For Gunnison Basin, taller shrubs and higher quality nesting habitat were the primary drivers of connectivity, while more sagebrush cover and less conifer cover facilitated connectivity rangewide. Our findings support previous assumptions that Gunnison sage‐grouse range contraction is largely the result of habitat loss and degradation. Importantly, we report direct estimates of resistance for landscape components that can be used to create resistance surfaces for prioritization of specific locations for conservation or management (i.e., habitat preservation, restoration, or development) or as we demonstrated, can be combined with simulation techniques to predict impacts to connectivity from potential management actions.

Bison Reintroduction to Mixed-Grass Prairie Is Associated With Increases in Bird Diversity and Cervid Occupancy in Riparian Areas

In grassland ecosystems, grazing by large herbivores is a highly influential process that affects biodiversity by modifying the vegetative environment through selective consumption. Here, we test whether restoration of bison is associated with increased bird diversity and cervid occupancy in networks of riparian habitat within a temperate grassland ecosystem, mixed-grass prairie in northcentral Montana, United States. We used a long time-series of remote sensing imagery to examine changes in riparian vegetation structure in stream networks within bison and cattle pastures. We then assessed how vegetation structure influenced diversity of bird communities and detection rates of mammals in these same riparian networks. We found that percent cover of woody vegetation, and native grasses and forbs increased more rapidly over time in bison pastures, and that these changes in vegetation structure were associated with increased bird diversity and cervid occupancy. In conclusion, bison reintroduction appears to function as a passive riparian restoration strategy with positive diversity outcomes for birds and mammals.

Acute and lagged fitness consequences for a sagebrush obligate in a post mega-wildfire landscape

Species responses to disturbance influence their extinction risks. Greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) are bioindicators of sagebrush ecosystem health and the loss of sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) due to wildfire, can cause long-term declines in sage-grouse populations and other sagebrush obligate species. We examined the demographic response of a greater sage-grouse population following a mega-wildfire using stochastic age-structured female-based matrix models over 6 years (2013-2018). Notably, chick survival (range = 0.18-0.38) and female survival (yearling range: 0.20-0.68; adult range: 0.27-0.75) were low compared to values reported for greater sage-grouse in other parts of their distribution. Greater sage-grouse displayed variation in demographic tactics after the fire; however, adult female survival explained most of the variation in λ during each year, which reflected a declining population in 3 of 6 years with more uncertainty observed in 2015 when populations may have been increasing, and 2017 and 2018, when populations may have been declining. The continued annual population decline observed since 2016 suggested there were additional strong environmental impacts that may have been compounded by the fire effects, prolonging recovery of greater sage-grouse. Our results support others that reported negative effects to greater sage-grouse demographics from broad-scale fire and provide a baseline for understanding how this species responds to loss of sagebrush cover based on their life history strategy.

Influence of environmental change, harvest exposure, and human disturbance on population trends of greater sage-grouse

Hunter harvest of greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus; hereafter “sage-grouse”) has been regulated by wildlife agencies during most of the past century. Hunting season regulations were maintained with the intention of providing sustainable hunting opportunities. Sage-grouse populations oscillate over time, and population growth can be influenced by seasonal weather and habitat disturbance. From 1995–2013, we compared sage-grouse lek trends from 22 relatively distinct sage-grouse population segments in 9 western U.S. states and 2 Canadian provinces. We stratified these populations into 3 broad categories (non-hunted [n = 8], continuously hunted [n = 10], and hunting season discontinued between 1996–2003 [n = 4]) with 8 different regulation histories to evaluate the potential impact of harvest on sage-grouse populations. Concomitantly, we assessed the effects of proportion burned, forested and cropland habitat; winter, spring, and summer precipitation; and human population, road, and oil and gas well densities on initial and time-varying lek counts. Density-dependent models fit lek trend data best for all regulation histories. In general, higher proportions of burnt, forested, and cropland habitat; and greater human population and oil and gas well densities were associated with lower equilibrium abundance (K). We found mixed results regarding the effect of hunting regulations on instantaneous growth rate (r). The cessation of harvest from 1996–2001 in approximately half of the largest sage-grouse population in our analysis was associated with higher r. Continuously harvested sage-grouse populations with permit hunting seasons had higher r during years with higher proportion of area exposed to permitted hunting rather than general upland game seasons. However, more liberal hunting regulations were positively associated with higher r in populations continuously harvested under general upland game hunts. Our results suggest that discontinuing harvest in the largest population resulted in greater population growth rates; however, this was not consistently the case for smaller populations. To no surprise, not all sage-grouse populations were influenced by the same environmental change or human disturbance factors. Our results will assist managers to understand factors associated with K, which provides the best targets for conservation efforts.

Spatial distribution of the Barbary Partridge (Alectoris barbara) in Sardinia explained by land use and climate

More than half of the European population of the Barbary Partridge is in Sardinia; nonetheless, the researches concerning this species are very scarce, and its conservation status is not defined because of a deficiency of data. This research aimed to analyse the habitat selection and the factors affecting the abundance and the density of the Barbary Partridge in Sardinia. We used the data collected over 8 years (between 2004 and 2013) by spring call counts in 67 study sites spread on the whole island. We used GLMM to define the relationships between the environment (topography, land use, climate) both the occurrence and the abundance of the species. Moreover, we estimated population densities by distance sampling. The Barbary Partridge occurred in areas at low altitude with garrigue and pastures, avoiding woodlands and sparsely vegetated areas. We found a strong relationship between the occurrence probability and the climate, in particular, a positive relation with temperature and a negative effect of precipitation, especially in April–May, during brood rearing. Furthermore, dry crops positively affected the abundance of the species. We estimated a density of 14.1 partridges per km2, similar to other known estimates. Our findings are important both because they increase the knowledge concerning this species, which is considered data deficient in Italy, and because they are useful to plan management actions aimed to maintain viable populations if necessary.

Wildfire and the ecological niche: Diminishing habitat suitability for an indicator species within semi-arid ecosystems

Globally accelerating frequency and extent of wildfire threatens the persistence of specialist wildlife species through direct loss of habitat and indirect facilitation of exotic invasive species. Habitat specialists may be especially prone to rapidly changing environmental conditions because their ability to adapt lags behind the rate of habitat alteration. As a result, these populations may become increasingly susceptible to ecological traps by returning to suboptimal breeding habitats that were dramatically altered by disturbance. We demonstrate a multistage modeling approach that integrates habitat selection and survival during the key nesting life-stage of a bird species of high conservation concern, the greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus; hereafter, sage-grouse). We applied these spatially explicit models to a spatiotemporally robust dataset of sage-grouse nest locations and fates across wildfire-altered sagebrush ecosystems of the Great Basin ecoregion, western United States. Female sage-grouse exhibited intricate habitat selection patterns that varied across regional gradients of ecological productivity among sagebrush communities, but often selected nest sites that disproportionately resulted in nest failure. For example, 23% of nests occurred in wildfire-affected habitats characterized by reduced sagebrush cover and greater composition of invasive annual grasses. We found survival of nests was negatively associated with wildfire-affected areas, but positively associated with higher elevations with increased ruggedness and overall shrub cover. Strong site fidelity likely drove sage-grouse to continue nesting in habitats degraded by wildfire. Hence, increasing frequency and extent of wildfire may contribute disproportionately to reduced reproductive success by creating ecological traps that act as population sinks. Identifying such habitat mismatches between selection and survival facilitates deeper understanding of the mechanisms driving reduced geographic niche space and population decline at broad spatiotemporal scales, while guiding management actions to areas that would be most beneficial to the species.

Rates of Ovulation and Reproductive Success Estimated from Hunter-Harvested Greater Sage-Grouse in Colorado

Numerous studies provide estimates of nesting propensity rates (proportion of females attempting to nest at least once in a given year) for greater sage-grouse Centrocercus urophasianus. However, females may initiate nests without being detected during the course of normal research, leading to negatively biased estimates. We evaluated nesting propensity rates (rate of females laying ≥1 egg/y) by examining ovaries from 941 female sage-grouse collected at hunter-check stations in North Park, Colorado, during 1975–1984. Mean rate estimates of nesting propensity were lower for yearlings (0.926, 95% CI = 0.895–0.948) than adults (0.964, 95% CI = 0.945–0.978). We did not attempt to estimate laying rates (number of eggs laid per year) because they were likely unreliable. Nesting success—estimated as the probability of females producing a successful clutch in a given year based on primary feather replacement from hunter-harvested wings—was lower for yearlings (0.398, 95% CI = 0.370–0.427) than adults (0.571, 95% CI = 0.546–0.596). There were more chicks per female produced when nesting propensity rates were high, indicating nesting propensity rates correlate with the number of juveniles in the autumn population. Both nesting propensity rates and nesting success were positively related to precipitation during the lekking and brood-rearing seasons, respectively. Nesting propensity rates were positively related to spring abundance (as measured from annual lek counts), but nesting success was unrelated to spring abundance. A range-wide estimate of an unadjusted, apparent nesting propensity rate available from a previous study was approximately 7% lower than the North Park population. Postovulatory follicles provide a direct source of information on nesting propensity rates estimated from hunter-harvested sage-grouse. These estimated rates may prove useful to gain insights into annual variation of hunted populations' reproductive efforts.

Feeding Ecology Drives Lead Exposure of Facultative and Obligate Avian Scavengers in the Eastern United States

Lead poisoning of scavenging birds is a global issue. However, the drivers of lead exposure of avian scavengers have been understood from the perspective of individual species, not cross-taxa assemblages. We analyzed blood (n = 285) and liver (n = 226) lead concentrations of 5 facultative (American crows [Corvus brachyrhynchos], bald eagles [Haliaeetus leucocephalus], golden eagles [Aquila chrysaetos], red-shouldered hawks [Buteo lineatus], and red-tailed hawks [Buteo jamaicensis]) and 2 obligate (black vultures [Coragyps atratus] and turkey vultures [Cathartes aura] avian scavenger species to identify lead exposure patterns. Species and age were significant (α < 0.05) predictors of blood lead exposure of facultative scavengers; species, but not age, was a significant predictor of their liver lead exposure. We detected temporal variations in lead concentrations of facultative scavengers (blood: median = 4.41 µg/dL in spring and summer vs 13.08 µg/dL in autumn and winter; p = <0.001; liver: 0.32 ppm in spring and summer vs median = 4.25 ppm in autumn and winter; p = <0.001). At the species level, we detected between-period differences in blood lead concentrations of bald eagles (p = 0.01) and red-shouldered hawks during the winter (p = 0.001). During summer, obligate scavengers had higher liver lead concentrations than did facultative scavengers (median = 1.76 ppm vs 0.22 ppm; p = <0.001). These data suggest that the feeding ecology of avian scavengers is a determinant of the degree to which they are lead exposed, and they highlight the importance of dietary and behavioral variation in determining lead exposure. Environ Toxicol Chem 2020;39:882-892. © 2020 SETAC.

Predicting population change from models based on habitat availability and utilization

The need to understand the impacts of land management for conservation, agriculture and disease prevention are driving demand for new predictive ecology approaches that can reliably forecast future changes in population size. Currently, although the link between habitat composition and animal population dynamics is undisputed, its function has not been quantified in a way that enables accurate prediction of population change in nature. Here, using 12 house sparrow colonies as a proof-of-concept, we apply recent theoretical advances to predict population growth or decline from detailed data on habitat composition and habitat selection. We show, for the first time, that statistical population models using derived covariates constructed from parametric descriptions of habitat composition and habitat selection can explain an impressive 92% of observed population variation. More importantly, they provide excellent predictive power under cross-validation, anticipating 81% of variability in population change. These models may be embedded in readily available generalized linear modelling frameworks, allowing their rapid application to field systems. Furthermore, we use optimization on our sample of sparrow colonies to demonstrate how such models, linking populations to their habitats, permit the design of practical and environmentally sound habitat manipulations for managing populations.

Spatially explicit models of seasonal habitat for greater sage-grouse at broad spatial scales: Informing areas for management in Nevada and northeastern California

Defining boundaries of species' habitat across broad spatial scales is often necessary for management decisions, and yet challenging for species that demonstrate differential variation in seasonal habitat use. Spatially explicit indices that incorporate temporal shifts in selection can help overcome such challenges, especially for species of high conservation concern. Greater sage-grouse Centrocercus urophasianus (hereafter, sage-grouse), a sagebrush obligate species inhabiting the American West, represents an important case study because sage-grouse exhibit seasonal habitat patterns, populations are declining in most portions of their range and are central to contemporary national land use policies. Here, we modeled spatiotemporal selection patterns for telemetered sage-grouse across multiple study sites (1,084 sage-grouse; 30,690 locations) in the Great Basin. We developed broad-scale spatially explicit habitat indices that elucidated space use patterns (spring, summer/fall, and winter) and accounted for regional climatic variation using previously published hydrographic boundaries. We then evaluated differences in selection/avoidance of each habitat characteristic between seasons and hydrographic regions. Most notably, sage-grouse consistently selected areas dominated by sagebrush with few or no conifers but varied in type of sagebrush selected by season and region. Spatiotemporal variation was most apparent based on availability of water resources and herbaceous cover, where sage-grouse strongly selected upland natural springs in xeric regions but selected larger wet meadows in mesic regions. Additionally, during the breeding period in spring, herbaceous cover was selected strongly in the mesic regions. Lastly, we expanded upon an existing joint-index framework by combining seasonal habitat indices with a probabilistic index of sage-grouse abundance and space use to produce habitat maps useful for sage-grouse management. These products can serve as conservation planning tools that help predict expected benefits of restoration activities, while highlighting areas most critical to sustaining sage-grouse populations. Our joint-index framework can be applied to other species that exhibit seasonal shifts in habitat requirements to help better guide conservation actions.

Spatially explicit models of seasonal habitat for greater sage-grouse at broad spatial scales: Informing areas for management in Nevada and northeastern California

Defining boundaries of species' habitat across broad spatial scales is often necessary for management decisions, and yet challenging for species that demonstrate differential variation in seasonal habitat use. Spatially explicit indices that incorporate temporal shifts in selection can help overcome such challenges, especially for species of high conservation concern. Greater sage-grouse Centrocercus urophasianus (hereafter, sage-grouse), a sagebrush obligate species inhabiting the American West, represents an important case study because sage-grouse exhibit seasonal habitat patterns, populations are declining in most portions of their range and are central to contemporary national land use policies. Here, we modeled spatiotemporal selection patterns for telemetered sage-grouse across multiple study sites (1,084 sage-grouse; 30,690 locations) in the Great Basin. We developed broad-scale spatially explicit habitat indices that elucidated space use patterns (spring, summer/fall, and winter) and accounted for regional climatic variation using previously published hydrographic boundaries. We then evaluated differences in selection/avoidance of each habitat characteristic between seasons and hydrographic regions. Most notably, sage-grouse consistently selected areas dominated by sagebrush with few or no conifers but varied in type of sagebrush selected by season and region. Spatiotemporal variation was most apparent based on availability of water resources and herbaceous cover, where sage-grouse strongly selected upland natural springs in xeric regions but selected larger wet meadows in mesic regions. Additionally, during the breeding period in spring, herbaceous cover was selected strongly in the mesic regions. Lastly, we expanded upon an existing joint-index framework by combining seasonal habitat indices with a probabilistic index of sage-grouse abundance and space use to produce habitat maps useful for sage-grouse management. These products can serve as conservation planning tools that help predict expected benefits of restoration activities, while highlighting areas most critical to sustaining sage-grouse populations. Our joint-index framework can be applied to other species that exhibit seasonal shifts in habitat requirements to help better guide conservation actions.