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Multi-model approach to integrate climate change impact on carbon sequestration potential of afforestation scenarios in Quebec, Canada. Ecol Modell 2022. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2022.110144] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
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Dawe DA, Parisien M, Boulanger Y, Boucher J, Beauchemin A, Arseneault D. Short- and long-term wildfire threat when adapting infrastructure for wildlife conservation in the boreal forest. ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS : A PUBLICATION OF THE ECOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA 2022; 32:e2606. [PMID: 35366037 PMCID: PMC9542478 DOI: 10.1002/eap.2606] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/29/2021] [Revised: 12/13/2021] [Accepted: 01/14/2022] [Indexed: 06/14/2023]
Abstract
Managers designing infrastructure in fire-prone wildland areas require assessments of wildfire threat to quantify uncertainty due to future vegetation and climatic conditions. In this study, we combine wildfire simulation and forest landscape composition modeling to identify areas that would be highly susceptible to wildfire around a proposed conservation corridor in Québec, Canada. In this measure, managers have proposed raising the conductors of a new 735-kV hydroelectric powerline above the forest canopy within a wildlife connectivity corridor to mitigate the impacts to threatened boreal woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus). Retention of coniferous vegetation, however, can increase the likelihood of an intense wildfire damaging powerline infrastructure. To assess the likelihood of high-intensity wildfires for the next 100 years, we evaluated three time periods (2020, 2070, 2120), three climate scenarios (observed, RCP 4.5, RCP 8.5), and four vegetation projections (static, no harvest, extensive harvesting, harvesting excluded in protected areas). Under present-day conditions, we found a lower probability of high-intensity wildfire within the corridor than in other parts of the study area, due to the protective influence of a nearby, poorly regenerated burned area. Wildfire probability will increase into the future, with strong, weather-induced inflation in the number of annual ignitions and wildfire spread potential. However, a conversion to less-flammable vegetation triggered by interactions between climate change and disturbance may attenuate this trend. By addressing the range of uncertainty of future conditions, we present a robust strategy to assist in decision-making about long-term risk management for both the proposed conservation measure and the powerline.
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Affiliation(s)
- Denyse A. Dawe
- Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest ServiceNorthern Forestry CentreEdmontonAlbertaCanada
| | - Marc‐André Parisien
- Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest ServiceNorthern Forestry CentreEdmontonAlbertaCanada
| | - Yan Boulanger
- Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest ServiceLaurentian Forestry CentreQuébecQuébecCanada
| | - Jonathan Boucher
- Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest ServiceLaurentian Forestry CentreQuébecQuébecCanada
| | - Alexandre Beauchemin
- Department of Health, Safety and Environment DirectionHydro‐QuébecMontréalQuébecCanada
| | - Dominique Arseneault
- Department of Biology, Chemistry and GeographyUniversité du Québec à RimouskiRimouskiQuébecCanada
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Marvin CH, Berthiaume A, Burniston DA, Chibwe L, Dove A, Evans M, Hewitt LM, Hodson PV, Muir DCG, Parrott J, Thomas PJ, Tomy GT. Polycyclic aromatic compounds in the Canadian Environment: Aquatic and terrestrial environments. ENVIRONMENTAL POLLUTION (BARKING, ESSEX : 1987) 2021; 285:117442. [PMID: 34380209 DOI: 10.1016/j.envpol.2021.117442] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/11/2021] [Revised: 05/03/2021] [Accepted: 05/20/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
Polycyclic aromatic compounds (PACs) are ubiquitous across environmental media in Canada, including surface water, soil, sediment and snowpack. Information is presented according to pan-Canadian sources, and key geographical areas including the Great Lakes, the Alberta Oil Sands Region (AOSR) and the Canadian Arctic. Significant PAC releases result from exploitation of fossil fuels containing naturally-derived PACs, with anthropogenic sources related to production, upgrading and transport which also release alkylated PACs. Continued expansion of the oil and gas industry indicates contamination by PACs may increase. Monitoring networks should be expanded, and include petrogenic PACs in their analytical schema, particularly near fuel transportation routes. National-scale roll-ups of emission budgets may not expose important details for localized areas, and on local scales emissions can be substantial without significantly contributing to total Canadian emissions. Burning organic matter produces mainly parent or pyrogenic PACs, with forest fires and coal combustion to produce iron and steel being major sources of pyrogenic PACs in Canada. Another major source is the use of carbon electrodes at aluminum smelters in British Columbia and Quebec. Temporal trends in PAC levels across the Great Lakes basin have remained relatively consistent over the past four decades. Management actions to reduce PAC loadings have been countered by increased urbanization, vehicular emissions and areas of impervious surfaces. Major cities within the Great Lakes watershed act as diffuse sources of PACs, and result in coronas of contamination emanating from urban centres, highlighting the need for non-point source controls to reduce loadings.
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Affiliation(s)
- Christopher H Marvin
- Water Science and Technology Directorate, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Burlington, Ontario, Canada.
| | - Alicia Berthiaume
- Science and Risk Assessment Directorate, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Gatineau, Quebec, Canada
| | - Deborah A Burniston
- Water Science and Technology Directorate, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Burlington, Ontario, Canada
| | - Leah Chibwe
- Water Science and Technology Directorate, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Burlington, Ontario, Canada
| | - Alice Dove
- Water Science and Technology Directorate, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Burlington, Ontario, Canada
| | - Marlene Evans
- Water Science and Technology Directorate, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada
| | - L Mark Hewitt
- Water Science and Technology Directorate, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Burlington, Ontario, Canada
| | - Peter V Hodson
- School of Environmental Studies, Queen's University, Kingston, Ontario, Canada
| | - Derek C G Muir
- Water Science and Technology Directorate, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Burlington, Ontario, Canada
| | - Joanne Parrott
- Water Science and Technology Directorate, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Burlington, Ontario, Canada
| | - Philippe J Thomas
- Wildlife and Landscape Research Directorate, National Wildlife Research Centre, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada
| | - Gregg T Tomy
- Department of Chemistry, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada
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Ter-Mikaelian MT, Gonsamo A, Chen JM, Mo G, Chen J. Historical and future carbon stocks in forests of northern Ontario, Canada. CARBON BALANCE AND MANAGEMENT 2021; 16:21. [PMID: 34264423 PMCID: PMC8281711 DOI: 10.1186/s13021-021-00184-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/22/2021] [Accepted: 07/09/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Forests in the Far North of Ontario (FNO), Canada, are likely the least studied in North America, and quantifying their current and future carbon (C) stocks is the first step in assessing their potential role in climate change mitigation. Although the FNO forests are unmanaged, the latter task is made more important by growing interest in developing the region's natural resources, primarily for timber harvesting. In this study, we used a combination of field and remotely sensed observations with a land surface model to estimate forest C stocks in the FNO forests and to project their future dynamics. The specific objective was to simulate historical C stocks for 1901-2014 and future C stocks for 2015-2100 for five shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios selected as high priority scenarios for the 6th Assessment Report on Climate Change. RESULTS Carbon stocks in live vegetation in the FNO forests remained relatively stable between 1901 and 2014 while soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks steadily declined, losing about 16% of their initial value. At the end of the historical simulation (in 2014), the stocks were estimated at 19.8, 46.4, and 66.2 tCha-1 in live vegetation, SOC, and total ecosystem pools, respectively. Projections for 2015-2100 indicated effectively no substantial change in SOC stocks, while live vegetation C stocks increased, accelerating their growth in the second half of the twenty-first century. These results were consistent among all simulated SSP scenarios. Consequently, increase in total forest ecosystem C stocks by 2100 ranged from 16.7 to 20.7% of their value in 2015. Simulations with and without wildfires showed the strong effect of fire on forest C stock dynamics during 2015-2100: inclusion of wildfires reduced the live vegetation increase by half while increasing the SOC pool due to higher turnover of vegetation C to SOC. CONCLUSIONS Forest ecosystem C stock estimates at the end of historical simulation period were at the lower end but within the range of values reported in the literature for northern boreal forests. These estimates may be treated as conservatively low since the area included in the estimates is poorly studied and some of the forests may be on peat deposits rather than mineral soils. Future C stocks were projected to increase in all simulated SSP scenarios, especially in the second half of the twenty-first century. Thus, during the projected period forest ecosystems of the FNO are likely to act as a C sink. In light of growing interest in developing natural resources in the FNO, collecting more data on the status and dynamics of its forests is needed to verify the above-presented estimates and design management activities that would maintain their projected C sink status.
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Affiliation(s)
- Michael T Ter-Mikaelian
- Ontario Forest Research Institute, Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry, 1235 Queen Street E., Sault Ste. Marie, ON, P6A 2E5, Canada.
| | - Alemu Gonsamo
- School of Earth, Environment & Society, McMaster University, 1280 Main Street West, Hamilton, ON, L8S 4S4, Canada
| | - Jing M Chen
- Department of Geography and Planning, University of Toronto, 100 St. George St, Toronto, ON, M5S 3G3, Canada
| | - Gang Mo
- Department of Geography and Planning, University of Toronto, 100 St. George St, Toronto, ON, M5S 3G3, Canada
| | - Jiaxin Chen
- Ontario Forest Research Institute, Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry, 1235 Queen Street E., Sault Ste. Marie, ON, P6A 2E5, Canada
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Guan H, Dong X, Yan G, Searls T, Bourque CPA, Meng FR. Conditional inference trees in the assessment of tree mortality rates in the transitional mixed forests of Atlantic Canada. PLoS One 2021; 16:e0250991. [PMID: 34143806 PMCID: PMC8213180 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0250991] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/01/2020] [Accepted: 04/16/2021] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
Long-term predictions of forest dynamics, including forecasts of tree growth and mortality, are central to sustainable forest-management planning. Although often difficult to evaluate, tree mortality rates under different abiotic and biotic conditions are vital in defining the long-term dynamics of forest ecosystems. In this study, we have modeled tree mortality rates using conditional inference trees (CTREE) and multi-year permanent sample plot data sourced from an inventory with coverage of New Brunswick (NB), Canada. The final CTREE mortality model was based on four tree- and three stand-level terms together with two climatic terms. The correlation coefficient (R2) between observed and predicted mortality rates was 0.67. High cumulative annual growing degree-days (GDD) was found to lead to increased mortality in 18 tree species, including Betula papyrifera, Picea mariana, Acer saccharum, and Larix laricina. In another ten species, including Abies balsamea, Tsuga canadensis, Fraxinus americana, and Fagus grandifolia, mortality rates tended to be higher in areas with high incident solar radiation. High amounts of precipitation in NB’s humid maritime climate were also found to contribute to heightened tree mortality. The relationship between high GDD, solar radiation, and high mortality rates was particularly strong when precipitation was also low. This would suggest that although excessive soil water can contribute to heightened tree mortality by reducing the supply of air to the roots, occasional drought in NB can also contribute to increased mortality events. These results would have significant implications when considered alongside regional climate projections which generally entail both components of warming and increased precipitation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Huiwen Guan
- College of Economics & Management, Zhejiang University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, China
- Faculty of Forestry and Environmental Management, University of New Brunswick, Fredericton, New Brunswick, Canada
| | - Xibin Dong
- College of Engineering and Technology, Northeast Forestry University, Harbin, Heilongjiang, China
- * E-mail: (FRM); (XD)
| | - Guohua Yan
- Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of New Brunswick, Fredericton, New Brunswick, Canada
| | - Tyler Searls
- Faculty of Forestry and Environmental Management, University of New Brunswick, Fredericton, New Brunswick, Canada
| | - Charles P. -A. Bourque
- Faculty of Forestry and Environmental Management, University of New Brunswick, Fredericton, New Brunswick, Canada
| | - Fan-Rui Meng
- Faculty of Forestry and Environmental Management, University of New Brunswick, Fredericton, New Brunswick, Canada
- * E-mail: (FRM); (XD)
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Greuel RJ, Degré‐Timmons GÉ, Baltzer JL, Johnstone JF, McIntire EJB, Day NJ, Hart SJ, McLoughlin PD, Schmiegelow FKA, Turetsky MR, Truchon‐Savard A, Telgen MD, Cumming SG. Predicting patterns of terrestrial lichen biomass recovery following boreal wildfires. Ecosphere 2021. [DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.3481] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/10/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Ruth J. Greuel
- Department of Biology University of Saskatchewan Saskatoon Saskatchewan Canada
| | - Geneviève É. Degré‐Timmons
- Department of Biology Wilfrid Laurier University Waterloo Ontario Canada
- Department of Wood and Forest Sciences Laval University Quebec City Quebec Canada
| | | | - Jill F. Johnstone
- Department of Biology University of Saskatchewan Saskatoon Saskatchewan Canada
- Institute of Arctic Biology University of Alaska Fairbanks Fairbanks Alaska USA
| | - Eliot J. B. McIntire
- Canadian Forest Service Pacific Forestry Centre Natural Resources Canada Victoria British Columbia Canada
| | - Nicola J. Day
- Department of Biology Wilfrid Laurier University Waterloo Ontario Canada
- School of Biological Sciences Victoria University of Wellington Wellington New Zealand
| | - Sarah J. Hart
- Department of Biology University of Saskatchewan Saskatoon Saskatchewan Canada
- Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology University of Wisconsin‐Madison Madison Wisconsin USA
| | | | | | - Merritt R. Turetsky
- Department of Integrative Biology University of Guelph Guelph Ontario Canada
- Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research University of Colorado Boulder Colorado USA
| | | | - Mario D. Telgen
- Department of Wood and Forest Sciences Laval University Quebec City Quebec Canada
| | - Steven G. Cumming
- Department of Wood and Forest Sciences Laval University Quebec City Quebec Canada
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Jiménez-Ruano A, de la Riva Fernández J, Rodrigues M. Fire regime dynamics in mainland Spain. Part 2: A near-future prospective of fire activity. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2020; 705:135842. [PMID: 31972918 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.135842] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/01/2019] [Revised: 11/27/2019] [Accepted: 11/28/2019] [Indexed: 06/10/2023]
Abstract
The current research belongs to a series of two manuscripts aiming at describing spatial-temporal dynamics of fire regime and its drivers in Spain. In this work, we present the first attempt to produce a spatial-temporal delimitation of homogeneous fire regime zones in Spain providing insights into the near future. The analyses were based on historical fire records; leveraging autoregressive models to project fire features into the near future. We evaluated the spatial extent of homogenous fire regime zones in three different periods: past (1974-1994), current (1995-2015) and future (2016-2036). To do so, we applied Principal Component Analysis and Ward's hierarchical clustering to identify zones of fire regime on the basis of the spatial and temporal arrangement of their main fire features: number of fires, burned area, burnt area from natural-caused fires, incidence of large fires (> 100 ha) and seasonality. Clusters of fire regime were trained in the current period, being later projected into the past and future periods using of k-Nearest Neighbor classification. ARIMA modeling forecasted a shrinkage in all fire features except natural-caused fires that remained stable. Overall, we detected a transition from significant fire incidence in the past towards a situation with moderate impact of fires in the near future. The Mediterranean coast experienced the largest decline in fire activity with few locations maintaining the historical levels of occurrence of large fires. On the other hand, the Northwestern end of Spain depicted a progression towards winter fire activity while still linked to large fires. This pattern persisted in the near future along the northern coast, whereas an intermix of minor fire progression and regression was expected thorough the hinterlands and the Mediterranean.
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Affiliation(s)
- Adrián Jiménez-Ruano
- Department of Geography and Land Management, Pedro Cerbuna 12, 50009 Zaragoza, Spain; GEOFOREST Group, University Institute of Research in Environmental Sciences (IUCA), University of Zaragoza, Zaragoza, Spain.
| | - Juan de la Riva Fernández
- Department of Geography and Land Management, Pedro Cerbuna 12, 50009 Zaragoza, Spain; GEOFOREST Group, University Institute of Research in Environmental Sciences (IUCA), University of Zaragoza, Zaragoza, Spain
| | - Marcos Rodrigues
- GEOFOREST Group, University Institute of Research in Environmental Sciences (IUCA), University of Zaragoza, Zaragoza, Spain; Department of Agriculture and Forest Engineering, University of Lleida, Alcalde Rovira Roure 191, 25198, Lleida, Spain; Joint Research Unit AGROTECNIO-CTFC, Crta. Sant Llorenç de Morunys, km 2, 25280, Solsona, Lleida, Spain
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San‐Miguel I, Coops NC, Chavardès RD, Andison DW, Pickell PD. What controls fire spatial patterns? Predictability of fire characteristics in the Canadian boreal plains ecozone. Ecosphere 2020. [DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.2985] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/06/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Ignacio San‐Miguel
- Integrated Remote Sensing Studio Department of Forest Resources Management University of British Columbia Vancouver British Columbia Canada
| | - Nicholas C. Coops
- Integrated Remote Sensing Studio Department of Forest Resources Management University of British Columbia Vancouver British Columbia Canada
| | - Raphaël D. Chavardès
- NSERC‐UQAT‐UQAM Industrial Chair in Sustainable Forest Management Université du Québec en Abitibi‐Témiscamingue Rouyn‐Noranda Québec Canada
| | - David W. Andison
- Bandaloop Landscape‐Ecosystem Services Whistler British Columbia Canada
| | - Paul D. Pickell
- NSERC‐UQAT‐UQAM Industrial Chair in Sustainable Forest Management Université du Québec en Abitibi‐Témiscamingue Rouyn‐Noranda Québec Canada
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Short-term responses of boreal carbon stocks to climate change: A simulation study of black spruce forests. Ecol Modell 2019. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2019.108754] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/20/2022]
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10
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Sensitivity of Boreal Carbon Stocks to Fire Return Interval, Fire Severity and Fire Season: A Simulation Study of Black Spruce Forests. Ecosystems 2018. [DOI: 10.1007/s10021-018-0287-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/25/2022]
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11
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Stand Age Influence on Potential Wildfire Ignition and Spread in the Boreal Forest of Northeastern Canada. Ecosystems 2018. [DOI: 10.1007/s10021-018-0235-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/17/2022]
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12
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A Tree Species Effect on Soil That Is Consistent Across the Species’ Range: The Case of Aspen and Soil Carbon in North America. FORESTS 2017. [DOI: 10.3390/f8040113] [Citation(s) in RCA: 27] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
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13
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Biophysical and Economic Analysis of Black Spruce Regeneration in Eastern Canada Using Global Climate Model Productivity Outputs. FORESTS 2017. [DOI: 10.3390/f8040106] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
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14
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Erni S, Arseneault D, Parisien MA, Bégin Y. Spatial and temporal dimensions of fire activity in the fire-prone eastern Canadian taiga. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2017; 23:1152-1166. [PMID: 27514018 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13461] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/13/2016] [Accepted: 07/11/2016] [Indexed: 06/06/2023]
Abstract
The forest age mosaic is a fundamental attribute of the North American boreal forest. Given that fires are generally lethal to trees, the time since last fire largely determines the composition and structure of forest stands and landscapes. Although the spatiotemporal dynamics of such mosaics has long been assumed to be random under the overwhelming influence of severe fire weather, no long-term reconstruction of mosaic dynamics has been performed from direct field evidence. In this study, we use fire length as a proxy for fire extent across the fire-prone eastern Canadian taiga and systematically reconstruct the spatiotemporal variability of fire extent and fire intervals, as well as the resulting forest age along a 340-km transect for the 1840-2013 time period. Our results indicate an extremely active fire regime over the last two centuries, with an overall burn rate of 2.1% of the land area yr-1 , mainly triggered by seasonal anomalies of high temperature and severe drought. However, the rejuvenation of the age mosaic was strongly patterned in space and time due to the intrinsically lower burn rates in wetland-dominated areas and, more importantly, to the much-reduced likelihood of burning of stands up to 50 years postfire. An extremely high burn rate of ~5% yr-1 would have characterized our study region during the last century in the absence of such fuel age effect. Although recent burn rates and fire sizes are within their range of variability of the last 175 years, a particularly severe weather event allowed a 2013 fire to spread across a large fire refuge, thus shifting the abundance of mature and old forest to a historic low. These results provide reference conditions to evaluate the significance and predict the spatiotemporal dynamics and impacts of the currently strengthening fire activity in the North American boreal forest.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sandy Erni
- Centre Eau Terre Environnement, Institut national de la Recherche Scientifique, 490, Rue de la Couronne, Québec, QC, G1K 9A9, Canada
| | - Dominique Arseneault
- Département de Biologie, Chimie et Géographie, Centre d'Études Nordiques, Université du Québec à Rimouski, 300, Allée des Ursulines, Rimouski, QC, G5L 3A1, Canada
| | - Marc-André Parisien
- Northern Forestry Centre, Canadian Forest Service, Natural Resources Canada, Edmonton, AB, T6H 3S5, Canada
| | - Yves Bégin
- Institut National de la Recherche Scientifique, 490 de la Couronne, Québec, QC, G1K 9A9, Canada
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15
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Effects of Lakes on Wildfire Activity in the Boreal Forests of Saskatchewan, Canada. FORESTS 2016. [DOI: 10.3390/f7110265] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
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16
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Fire Regime along Latitudinal Gradients of Continuous to Discontinuous Coniferous Boreal Forests in Eastern Canada. FORESTS 2016. [DOI: 10.3390/f7100211] [Citation(s) in RCA: 25] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
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17
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Boulanger Y, Gray DR, Cooke BJ, De Grandpré L. Model-specification uncertainty in future forest pest outbreak. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2016; 22:1595-607. [PMID: 26511654 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13142] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/29/2015] [Accepted: 09/06/2015] [Indexed: 05/16/2023]
Abstract
Climate change will modify forest pest outbreak characteristics, although there are disagreements regarding the specifics of these changes. A large part of this variability may be attributed to model specifications. As a case study, we developed a consensus model predicting spruce budworm (SBW, Choristoneura fumiferana [Clem.]) outbreak duration using two different predictor data sets and six different correlative methods. The model was used to project outbreak duration and the uncertainty associated with using different data sets and correlative methods (=model-specification uncertainty) for 2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100, according to three forcing scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). The consensus model showed very high explanatory power and low bias. The model projected a more important northward shift and decrease in outbreak duration under the RCP 8.5 scenario. However, variation in single-model projections increases with time, making future projections highly uncertain. Notably, the magnitude of the shifts in northward expansion, overall outbreak duration and the patterns of outbreaks duration at the southern edge were highly variable according to the predictor data set and correlative method used. We also demonstrated that variation in forcing scenarios contributed only slightly to the uncertainty of model projections compared with the two sources of model-specification uncertainty. Our approach helped to quantify model-specification uncertainty in future forest pest outbreak characteristics. It may contribute to sounder decision-making by acknowledging the limits of the projections and help to identify areas where model-specification uncertainty is high. As such, we further stress that this uncertainty should be strongly considered when making forest management plans, notably by adopting adaptive management strategies so as to reduce future risks.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yan Boulanger
- Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Laurentian Forestry Centre, 1055 du P.E.P.S., P.O. Box 10380, Stn. Sainte-Foy, Québec, QC, G1V 4C7, Canada
| | - David R Gray
- Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Atlantic Forestry Centre, 1350 Regent Street South, P.O. Box 4000, Fredericton, NB, E3B 5P7, Canada
| | - Barry J Cooke
- Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Northern Forestry Centre, 5320 122nd Street NW, Edmonton, AB, T6H 3S5, Canada
| | - Louis De Grandpré
- Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Laurentian Forestry Centre, 1055 du P.E.P.S., P.O. Box 10380, Stn. Sainte-Foy, Québec, QC, G1V 4C7, Canada
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Drapeau P, Villard MA, Leduc A, Hannon SJ. Natural disturbance regimes as templates for the response of bird species assemblages to contemporary forest management. DIVERS DISTRIB 2016. [DOI: 10.1111/ddi.12407] [Citation(s) in RCA: 25] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/30/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Pierre Drapeau
- Département des sciences biologiques; Chaire industrielle CRSNG UQAT-UQAM en aménagement forestier durable; Université du Québec à Montréal and Centre d’étude de la forêt; Montréal QC H3C 3P8 Canada
| | - Marc-André Villard
- Département de biologie; Université de Moncton; Moncton NB E1A 3A9 Canada
| | - Alain Leduc
- Département des sciences biologiques; Chaire industrielle CRSNG UQAT-UQAM en aménagement forestier durable; Université du Québec à Montréal and Centre d’étude de la forêt; Montréal QC H3C 3P8 Canada
| | - Susan J. Hannon
- Department of Biological Sciences; University of Alberta; Edmonton AL T6G 2E9 Canada
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19
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Bouchard M, Garet J. A framework to optimize the restoration and retention of large mature forest tracts in managed boreal landscapes. ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS : A PUBLICATION OF THE ECOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA 2016; 24:1689-1704. [PMID: 29210231 DOI: 10.1890/13-1893.1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/07/2023]
Abstract
The decreasing abundance of mature forests and their fragmentation have been identified as major threats for the preservation of biodiversity in managed landscapes. In this study, we developed a multi-level framework to coordinate forest harvestings so as to optimize the retention or restoration of large mature forest tracts in managed forests. We used mixed-integer programming for this optimization, and integrated realistic management assumptions regarding stand yield and operational harvest constraints. The model was parameterized for eastern Canadian boreal forests, where clear-cutting is the main silvicultural system, and is used to examine two hypotheses. First, we tested if mature forest tract targets had more negative impacts on wood supplies when implemented in landscapes that are very different from targeted conditions. Second, we tested the hypothesis that using more partial cuts can be useful to attenuate the negative impacts of mature forest targets on wood supplies. The results indicate that without the integration of an explicit mature forest tract target, the optimization leads to relatively high fragmentation levels. Forcing the retention or restoration of large mature forest tracts on 40% of the landscapes had negative impacts on wood supplies in all types of landscapes, but these impacts were less important in landscapes that were initially fragmented. This counter-intuitive result is explained by the presence in the models of an operational constraint that forbids diffuse patterns of harvestings, which are more costly. Once this constraint is applied, the residual impact of the mature forest tract target is low. The results also indicate that partial cuts are of very limited use to attenuate the impacts of mature forest tract targets on wood supplies in highly fragmented landscapes. Partial cuts are somewhat more useful in landscapes that are less fragmented, but they have to be well coordinated with clearcut schedules in order to contribute efficiently to conservation objectives. This modeling framework could easily be adapted and parameterized to test hypotheses or to optimize restoration schedules in landscapes where issues such as forest fragmentation and the abundance of mature or old-growth forests are a concern.
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Beguin J, McIntire EJB, Raulier F. Salvage logging following fires can minimize boreal caribou habitat loss while maintaining forest quotas: An example of compensatory cumulative effects. JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT 2015; 163:234-245. [PMID: 26321533 DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2015.08.009] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/24/2014] [Revised: 07/21/2015] [Accepted: 08/11/2015] [Indexed: 06/04/2023]
Abstract
Protected area networks are the dominant conservation approach that is used worldwide for protecting biodiversity. Conservation planning in managed forests, however, presents challenges when endangered species use old-growth forests targeted by the forest industry for timber supply. In many ecosystems, this challenge is further complicated by the occurrence of natural disturbance events that disrupt forest attributes at multiple scales. Using spatially explicit landscape simulation experiments, we gather insights into how these large scale, multifaceted processes (fire risk, timber harvesting and the amount of protected area) influenced both the persistence of the threatened boreal caribou and the level of timber supply in the boreal forest of eastern Canada. Our result showed that failure to account explicitly and a priori for fire risk in the calculation of timber supply led to an overestimation of timber harvest volume, which in turn led to rates of cumulative disturbances that threatened both the long-term persistence of boreal caribou and the sustainability of the timber supply itself. Salvage logging, however, allowed some compensatory cumulative effects. It minimised the reductions of timber supply within a range of ∼10% while reducing the negative impact of cumulative disturbances caused by fire and logging on caribou. With the global increase of the human footprint on forest ecosystems, our approach and results provide useful tools and insights for managers to resolve what often appear as lose-lose situation between the persistence of species at risk and timber harvest in other forest ecosystems. These tools contribute to bridge the gap between conservation and forest management, two disciplines that remain too often disconnected in practice.
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Affiliation(s)
- Julien Beguin
- Départment de biologie, Université Laval, Québec, Québec, G1V 0A6, Canada.
| | - Eliot J B McIntire
- Centre d'Étude de la Forêt (CEF), Canada; Pacific Forestry Centre (Canadian Forest Service, Natural Resources Canada), 506 West Burnside Road, Victoria, British Columbia, V8Z 1 M5, Canada.
| | - Frédéric Raulier
- Centre d'Étude de la Forêt (CEF), Canada; Département des sciences du bois et de la forêt, 2405, rue de la Terrasse, Université Laval, Québec, Québec, G1V 0A6, Canada.
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Thiffault N, Grondin P, Noël J, Poirier V. Ecological gradients driving the distribution of four Ericaceae in boreal Quebec, Canada. Ecol Evol 2015; 5:1837-53. [PMID: 26140200 PMCID: PMC4485965 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.1476] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/19/2014] [Revised: 02/17/2015] [Accepted: 02/28/2015] [Indexed: 11/30/2022] Open
Abstract
Understory species play a significant role in forest ecosystem dynamics. As such, species of the Ericaceae family have a major effect on the regeneration of tree species in boreal ecosystems. It is thus imperative to understand the ecological gradients controlling their distribution and abundance, so that their impacts can be taken into account in sustainable forest management. Using innovative analytical techniques from landscape ecology, we aimed to position, along ecological gradients, four Ericaceae found in the boreal forest of Quebec (Canada) (Rhododendron groenlandicum, Kalmia angustifolia, Chamaedaphne calyculata, and Vaccinium spp), to regionalize these species into landscape units relevant to forest management, and to estimate the relative importance of several ecological drivers (climate, disturbances, stand attributes, and physical environment) that control the species distribution and abundance. We conducted our study in boreal Quebec, over a study area covering 535,355 km2. We used data from 15,339 ecological survey plots and forest maps to characterize 1422 ecological districts covering the study region. We evaluated the relative proportion of each ericaceous species and explanatory variables at the district level. Vegetation and explanatory variables matrices were used to conduct redundancy, cluster, and variation partitioning analyses. We observed that ericaceous species are mainly distributed in the western part of the study area and each species has a distinct latitudinal and longitudinal gradient distribution. On the basis of these gradients, we delimited 10 homogeneous landscape units distinct in terms of ericaceous species abundance and environmental drivers. The distribution of the ericaceous species along ecological gradients is closely related to the overlaps between the four sets of explanatory variables considered. We conclude that the studied Ericaceae occupy specific positions along ecological gradients and possess a specific abundance and distribution controlled by the integration of multiple explanatory variables.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nelson Thiffault
- Direction de la recherche forestière, Ministère des Forêts, de la Faune et des Parcs du Québec 2700 rue Einstein, Québec, G1P 3W8, Quebec, Canada ; Centre d'étude de la forêt, Faculté de foresterie, de géographie et de géomatique, Université Laval 2405 rue de la Terrasse, Québec, G1V 0A6, Quebec, Canada
| | - Pierre Grondin
- Direction de la recherche forestière, Ministère des Forêts, de la Faune et des Parcs du Québec 2700 rue Einstein, Québec, G1P 3W8, Quebec, Canada
| | - Jean Noël
- Direction de la recherche forestière, Ministère des Forêts, de la Faune et des Parcs du Québec 2700 rue Einstein, Québec, G1P 3W8, Quebec, Canada
| | - Véronique Poirier
- Direction de la recherche forestière, Ministère des Forêts, de la Faune et des Parcs du Québec 2700 rue Einstein, Québec, G1P 3W8, Quebec, Canada
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Wu Z, He HS, Yang J, Liang Y. Defining fire environment zones in the boreal forests of northeastern China. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2015; 518-519:106-116. [PMID: 25747370 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.02.063] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/01/2014] [Revised: 02/17/2015] [Accepted: 02/17/2015] [Indexed: 06/04/2023]
Abstract
Fire activity in boreal forests will substantially increase with prolonged growing seasons under a warming climate. This trend poses challenges to managing fires in boreal forest landscapes. A fire environment zone map offers a basis for evaluating these fire-related problems and designing more effective fire management plans to improve the allocation of management resources across a landscape. Toward that goal, we identified three fire environment zones across boreal forest landscapes in northeastern China using analytical methods to identify spatial clustering of the environmental variables of climate, vegetation, topography, and human activity. The three fire environment zones were found to be in strong agreement with the spatial distributions of the historical fire data (occurrence, size, and frequency) for 1966-2005. This paper discusses how the resulting fire environment zone map can be used to guide forest fire management and fire regime prediction.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zhiwei Wu
- State Key Laboratory of Forest and Soil Ecology, Institute of Applied Ecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 72 Wenhua Road, Shenyang 110164, China.
| | - Hong S He
- School of Geographic Sciences, Northeast Normal University, Changchun 130024, China; School of Natural Resources, University of Missouri-Columbia, 203 Anheuser-Busch Natural Resources Building, Columbia, MO 65211-7270, USA.
| | - Jian Yang
- State Key Laboratory of Forest and Soil Ecology, Institute of Applied Ecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 72 Wenhua Road, Shenyang 110164, China.
| | - Yu Liang
- State Key Laboratory of Forest and Soil Ecology, Institute of Applied Ecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 72 Wenhua Road, Shenyang 110164, China.
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Pureswaran DS, De Grandpré L, Paré D, Taylor A, Barrette M, Morin H, Régnière J, Kneeshaw DD. Climate-induced changes in host tree–insect phenology may drive ecological state-shift in boreal forests. Ecology 2015. [DOI: 10.1890/13-2366.1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 112] [Impact Index Per Article: 12.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022]
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Wang X, Parisien MA, Flannigan MD, Parks SA, Anderson KR, Little JM, Taylor SW. The potential and realized spread of wildfires across Canada. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2014; 20:2518-2530. [PMID: 24700739 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12590] [Citation(s) in RCA: 23] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/07/2013] [Accepted: 02/13/2014] [Indexed: 06/03/2023]
Abstract
Given that they can burn for weeks or months, wildfires in temperate and boreal forests may become immense (eg., 10(0) - 10(4) km(2) ). However, during the period within which a large fire is 'active', not all days experience weather that is conducive to fire spread; indeed most of the spread occurs on a small proportion (e.g., 1 - 15 days) of not necessarily consecutive days during the active period. This study examines and compares the Canada-wide patterns in fire-conducive weather ('potential' spread) and the spread that occurs on the ground ('realized' spread). Results show substantial variability in distributions of potential and realized spread days across Canada. Both potential and realized spread are higher in western than in eastern Canada; however, whereas potential spread generally decreases from south to north, there is no such pattern with realized spread. The realized-to-potential fire-spread ratio is considerably higher in northern Canada than in the south, indicating that proportionally more fire-conducive days translate into fire progression. An exploration of environmental correlates to spread show that there may be a few factors compensating for the lower potential spread in northern Canada: a greater proportion of coniferous (i.e., more flammable) vegetation, lesser human impacts (i.e., less fragmented landscapes), sufficient fire ignitions, and intense droughts. Because a linear relationship exists between the frequency distributions of potential spread days and realized spread days in a fire zone, it is possible to obtain one from the other using a simple conversion factor. Our methodology thus provides a means to estimate realized fire spread from weather-based data in regions where fire databases are poor, which may improve our ability to predict future fire activity.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xianli Wang
- Department of Renewable Resources, University of Alberta, 751 General Service Building Edmonton, Alberta, AB T6G 2H1, Canada
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Parisien MA, Parks SA, Krawchuk MA, Little JM, Flannigan MD, Gowman LM, Moritz MA. An analysis of controls on fire activity in boreal Canada: comparing models built with different temporal resolutions. ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS : A PUBLICATION OF THE ECOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA 2014; 24:1341-1356. [PMID: 29160658 DOI: 10.1890/13-1477.1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 25] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/07/2023]
Abstract
Fire regimes of the Canadian boreal forest are driven by certain environmental factors that are highly variable from year to year (e.g., temperature, precipitation) and others that are relatively stable (e.g., land cover, topography). Studies examining the relative influence of these environmental drivers on fire activity suggest that models making explicit use of interannual variability appear to better capture years of climate extremes, whereas those using a temporal average of all available years highlight the importance of land-cover variables. It has been suggested that fire models built at different temporal resolutions may provide a complementary understanding of controls on fire regimes, but this claim has not been tested explicitly with parallel data and modeling approaches. We addressed this issue by building two models of area burned for the period 1980–2010 using 14 explanatory variables to describe ignitions, vegetation, climate, and topography. We built one model at an annual resolution, with climate and some land-cover variables being updated annually, and the other model using 31-year fire “climatology” based on averaged variables. Despite substantial differences in the variables' contributions to the two models, their predictions were broadly similar, which suggests coherence between the spatial patterns of annually varying climate extremes and long-term climate normals. Where the models' predictions diverged, discrepancies between the annual and averaged models could be attributed to specific explanatory variables. For instance, annually updating land cover allowed us to identify a possible negative feedback between flammable biomass and fire activity. These results show that building models at more than one temporal resolution affords a deeper understanding of controls on fire activity in boreal Canada than can be achieved by examining a single model. However, in terms of spatial predictions, the additional effort required to build annual models of fire activity may not always be warranted in this study area. From a management and policy standpoint, this key finding should boost confidence in models that incorporate climatic normals, thereby providing a stronger foundation on which to make decisions on adaptation and mitigation strategies for future fire activity.
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