Local climate change velocities and evolutionary history explain multidirectional range shifts in a North American butterfly assemblage

Species are often expected to shift their distributions either poleward or upslope to evade warming climates and colonise new suitable climatic niches. However, from 18-years of fixed transect monitoring data on 88 species of butterfly in the midwestern United States, we show that butterflies are shifting their centroids in all directions, except towards regions that are warming the fastest (southeast). Butterflies shifted their centroids at a mean rate of 4.87 km year-1. The rate of centroid shift was significantly associated with local climate change velocity (temperature by precipitation interaction), but not with mean climate change velocity throughout the species' ranges. Species tended to shift their centroids at a faster rate towards regions that are warming at slower velocities but increasing in precipitation velocity. Surprisingly, species' thermal niche breadth (range of climates butterflies experience throughout their distribution) and wingspan (often used as metric for dispersal capability) were not correlated with the rate at which species shifted their ranges. We observed high phylogenetic signal in the direction species shifted their centroids. However, we found no phylogenetic signal in the rate species shifted their centroids, suggesting less conserved processes determine the rate of range shift than the direction species shift their ranges. This research shows important signatures of multidirectional range shifts (latitudinal and longitudinal) and uniquely shows that local climate change velocities are more important in driving range shifts than the mean climate change velocity throughout a species' entire range.

Beyond cyanogenesis: Temperature gradients drive environmental adaptation in North American white clover (Trifolium repens L.)

Species that repeatedly evolve phenotypic clines across environmental gradients have been highlighted as ideal systems for characterizing the genomic basis of local environmental adaptation. However, few studies have assessed the importance of observed phenotypic clines for local adaptation: conspicuous traits that vary clinally may not necessarily be the most critical in determining local fitness. The present study was designed to fill this gap, using a plant species characterized by repeatedly evolved adaptive phenotypic clines. White clover is naturally polymorphic for its chemical defence cyanogenesis (HCN release with tissue damage); climate-associated cyanogenesis clines have evolved throughout its native and introduced range worldwide. We performed landscape genomic analyses on 415 wild genotypes from 43 locations spanning much of the North American species range to assess the relative importance of cyanogenesis loci vs. other genomic factors in local climatic adaptation. We find clear evidence of local adaptation, with temperature-related climatic variables best describing genome-wide differentiation between sampling locations. The same climatic variables are also strongly correlated with cyanogenesis frequencies and gene copy number variations (CNVs) at cyanogenesis loci. However, landscape genomic analyses indicate no significant contribution of cyanogenesis loci to local adaptation. Instead, several genomic regions containing promising candidate genes for plant response to seasonal cues are identified - some of which are shared with previously identified QTLs for locally adaptive fitness traits in North American white clover. Our findings suggest that local adaptation in white clover is likely determined primarily by genes controlling the timing of growth and flowering in response to local seasonal cues. More generally, this work suggests that caution is warranted when considering the importance of conspicuous phenotypic clines as primary determinants of local adaptation.

Insecticides, more than herbicides, land use, and climate, are associated with declines in butterfly species richness and abundance in the American Midwest

Mounting evidence shows overall insect abundances are in decline globally. Habitat loss, climate change, and pesticides have all been implicated, but their relative effects have never been evaluated in a comprehensive large-scale study. We harmonized 17 years of land use, climate, multiple classes of pesticides, and butterfly survey data across 81 counties in five states in the US Midwest. We find community-wide declines in total butterfly abundance and species richness to be most strongly associated with insecticides in general, and for butterfly species richness the use of neonicotinoid-treated seeds in particular. This included the abundance of the migratory monarch (Danaus plexippus), whose decline is the focus of intensive debate and public concern. Insect declines cannot be understood without comprehensive data on all putative drivers, and the 2015 cessation of neonicotinoid data releases in the US will impede future research.

Variation in Thermal Sensitivity of Diapause Development among Individuals and over Time Predicts Life History Timing in a Univoltine Insect

AbstractPhysiological time is important for understanding the development and seasonal timing of ectothermic animals but has largely been applied to developmental processes that occur during spring and summer, such as morphogenesis. There is a substantial knowledge gap in the relationship between temperature and development during winter, a season that is increasingly impacted by climate change. Most temperate insects overwinter in diapause, a developmental process with little obvious morphological change. We used principles from the physiological time literature to measure and model the thermal sensitivity of diapause development rate in the apple maggot fly Rhagoletis pomonella, a univoltine fly whose diapause duration varies substantially within and among populations. We show that diapause duration can be predicted by modeling a relationship between temperature and development rate that is shifted toward lower temperatures compared with typical models of morphogenic, nondiapause development. However, incorporating interindividual variation and ontogenetic variation in the temperature-to-development rate relationship was critical for accurately predicting fly emergence, as diapause development proceeded more quickly at high temperatures later in diapause. We conclude that the conceptual framework may be flexibly applied to other insects and discuss possible mechanisms of diapause timers and implications for phenology with warming winters.

Temperature alters the toxicological impacts of plant terpenoids on the polyphagous model herbivore Vanessa cardui

Terpenes are a major class of secondary metabolites present in all plants, and long hypothesized to have diversified in response to specific plant-herbivore interactions. Herbivory is a major biotic interaction that plays out across broad temporal and spatial scales that vary dramatically in temperature regimes, both due to climatic variation across geographic locations as well as the effect of seasonality. In addition, there is an emerging understanding that global climate change will continue to alter the temperature regimes of nearly every habitat on Earth over the coming centuries. Regardless of source, variation in temperature may influence herbivory, in particular via changes in the efficacy and impacts of plant defensive chemistry. This study aims to characterize temperature-driven variation in toxicological effects across several structural classes of terpenes in the model herbivore Vanessa cardui, the painted lady butterfly. We observed a general increase in monoterpene toxicity to larvae, pupa, and adults at higher temperatures, as well as an increase in development time as terpene concentration increased. Results obtained from this study yield insights into possible drivers of seasonal variation in plant terpene production as well as inform effects of rising global temperatures on plant-insect interactions. In the context of other known effects of climate change on plant-herbivore interactions like carbon fertilization and compensatory feeding, temperature-driven changes in plant chemical defense efficacy may further complicate the prediction of climate change impacts on the fundamental ecological process of herbivory.

Phenology and predictors of spring emergence for the Timber Rattlesnake (Crotalus horridus)

Many temperate reptiles survive winter by using subterranean refugia until external conditions become suitable for activity. Determining when to emerge from refugia relies on the ability to interpret when above-ground environmental conditions are survivable. If temperate reptiles rely on specific environmental cues such as temperature to initiate emergence, we should expect emergence phenologies to be predictable using local climatic data. However, specific predictors of emergence for many temperate reptiles, including the Timber Rattlesnake (Crotalus horridus), remain unclear, limiting our understanding of their overwintering phenology and restricting effective conservation and management. Our objectives were to identify environmental cues of spring emergence for C. horridus in Illinois to determine the species' emergence phenology, and to examine the applicability of identified cues in predicting emergence phenology across the species' range. We used wildlife cameras and weather station-derived environmental data to observe and predict the daily surface presence of C. horridus throughout the late winter and early spring at communal refugia in west-central and northern Illinois. The most parsimonious model for predicting surface presence included the additive effects of maximum daily temperature, accumulated degree days, and latitude. With a notable exception in the southeastern U.S., the model accurately predicted the average emergence day for eight other populations range wide, emphasizing the importance of temperature in influencing the phenological plasticity observed across the species' range. The apparent broad applicability of the model to other populations suggests it can be a valuable tool in predicting spring emergence phenology. Our results provide a foundation for further ecological enquiries and improved management and conservation strategies.

Weather anomalies more important than climate means in driving insect phenology

Studies of long-term trends in phenology often rely on climatic averages or accumulated heat, overlooking climate variability. Here we test the hypothesis that unusual weather conditions are critical in driving adult insect phenology. First, we generate phenological estimates for Lepidoptera (moths and butterflies) across the Eastern USA, and over a 70 year period, using natural history collections data. Next, we assemble a set of predictors, including the number of unusually warm and cold days prior to, and during, the adult flight period. We then use phylogenetically informed linear mixed effects models to evaluate effects of unusual weather events, climate context, species traits, and their interactions on flight onset, offset and duration. We find increasing numbers of both warm and cold days were strong effects, dramatically increasing flight duration. This strong effect on duration is likely driven by differential onset and termination dynamics. For flight onset, impact of unusual climate conditions is dependent on climatic context, but for flight cessation, more unusually cold days always lead to later termination particularly for multivoltine species. These results show that understanding phenological responses under global change must account for unusual weather events, especially given they are predicted to increase in frequency and severity.

Pest scenario of Helicoverpa armigera (Hub.) on pigeonpea during future climate change periods under RCP based projections in India

Gram pod borer, Helicoverpa armigera (Hub.) is the major insect pest of pigeonpea and prediction of number of generations (no. of gen.) and generation time (gen. time) using growing degree days (GDD) approach during three future climate change periods viz., Near (NP), Distant (DP) and Far Distant (FDP) periods at eleven major pigeonpea growing locations of India was attempted. Multi-model ensemble of Maximum (Tmax) and Minimum (Tmin) temperature data of four Representative Concentration Pathways viz., RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5 of Coupled Model Inter comparison Project 5 (CMIP5) models was adopted here. The increase in projected Tmax and Tmin are significant during 3 climate change periods (CCPs) viz., the NP, DP and FDP over base line (BL) period under four RCP scenarios at all locations and would be higher (4.7-5.1 °C) in RCP 8.5 and in FDP. More number of annual (10-17) and seasonal (5-8) gens. are expected to occur with greater percent increase in FDP (8 to 38%) over base line followed by DP (7 to 22%) and NP (5to 10%) periods with shortened annual gen. time (4 to 27%) across 4 RCPs. The reduction of crop duration was substantial in short, medium and long duration pigeonpeas at all locations across 4 RCPs and 3 CCPs. The seasonal no.of gen. is expected to increase (5 to 35%) with shortened gen. time (4 to 26%) even with reduced crop duration across DP and FDP climate periods of 6.0 and 8.5 RCPs in LD pigeonpea. More no. of gen. of H. armigera with reduced gen. time are expected to occur at Ludhiana, Coimbatore, Mohanpur, Warangal and Akola locations over BL period in 4 RCPs when normal duration of pigeonpeas is considered. Geographical location (66 to 72%), climate period (11 to 19%), RCPs (5-7%) and their interaction (0.04-1%) is vital and together explained more than 90% of the total variation in future pest scenario. The findings indicate that the incidence of H. armigera would be higher on pigeonpea during ensuing CCPs in India under global warming context.

An integrated system for the management of environmental data to support veterinary epidemiology

Environmental and climatic fluctuations can greatly influence the dynamics of infectious diseases of veterinary concern, or interfere with the implementation of relevant control measures. Including environmental and climatic aspects in epidemiological studies could provide policy makers with new insights to assign resources for measures to prevent or limit the spread of animal diseases, particularly those with zoonotic potential. The ever-increasing number of technologies and tools permits acquiring environmental data from various sources, including ground-based sensors and Satellite Earth Observation (SEO). However, the high heterogeneity of these datasets often requires at least some basic GIS (Geographic Information Systems) and/or coding skills to use them in further analysis. Therefore, the high availability of data does not always correspond to widespread use for research purposes. The development of an integrated data pre-processing system makes it possible to obtain information that could be easily and directly used in subsequent epidemiological analyses, supporting both research activities and the management of disease outbreaks. Indeed, such an approach allows for the reduction of the time spent on searching, downloading, processing and validating environmental data, thereby optimizing available resources and reducing any possible errors directly related to data collection. Although multitudes of free services that allow obtaining SEO data exist nowadays (either raw or pre-processed through a specific coding language), the availability and quality of information can be sub-optimal when dealing with very small scale and local data. In fact, some information sets (e.g., air temperature, rainfall), usually derived from ground-based sensors (e.g., agro-meteo station), are managed, processed and redistributed by agencies operating on a local scale which are often not directly accessible by the most common free SEO services (e.g., Google Earth Engine). The EVE (Environmental data for Veterinary Epidemiology) system has been developed to acquire, pre-process and archive a set of environmental information at various scales, in order to facilitate and speed up access by epidemiologists, researchers and decision-makers, also accounting for the integration of SEO information with locally sensed data.

Multi-season climate projections forecast declines in migratory monarch butterflies

Climate change poses a unique threat to migratory species as it has the potential to alter environmental conditions at multiple points along a species' migratory route. The eastern migratory population of monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus) has declined markedly over the last few decades, in part due to variation in breeding-season climate. Here, we combined a retrospective, annual-cycle model for the eastern monarch population with climate projections within the spring breeding grounds in eastern Texas and across the summer breeding grounds in the midwestern U.S. and southern Ontario, Canada to evaluate how monarchs are likely to respond to climate change over the next century. Our results reveal that projected changes in breeding-season climate are likely to lead to decreases in monarch abundance, with high potential for overwintering population size to fall below the historical minimum three or more times in the next two decades. Climatic changes across the expansive summer breeding grounds will also cause shifts in the distribution of monarchs, with higher projected abundances in areas that become wetter but not appreciably hotter (e.g., northern Ohio) and declines in abundance where summer temperatures are projected to increase well above those observed in the recent past (e.g., northern Minnesota). Although climate uncertainties dominate long-term population forecasts, our analyses suggest that we can improve precision of near-term forecasts by collecting targeted data to better understand relationships between breeding-season climate variables and local monarch abundance. Overall, our results highlight the importance of accounting for the impacts of climate changes throughout the full-annual cycle of migratory species.

Consistent trait-temperature interactions drive butterfly phenology in both incidental and survey data

Data availability limits phenological research at broad temporal and spatial extents. Butterflies are among the few taxa with broad-scale occurrence data, from both incidental reports and formal surveys. Incidental reports have biases that are challenging to address, but structured surveys are often limited seasonally and may not span full flight phenologies. Thus, how these data source compare in phenological analyses is unclear. We modeled butterfly phenology in relation to traits and climate using parallel analyses of incidental and survey data, to explore their shared utility and potential for analytical integration. One workflow aggregated “Pollard” surveys, where sites are visited multiple times per year; the other aggregated incidental data from online portals: iNaturalist and eButterfly. For 40 species, we estimated early (10%) and mid (50%) flight period metrics, and compared the spatiotemporal patterns and drivers of phenology across species and between datasets. For both datasets, inter-annual variability was best explained by temperature, and seasonal emergence was earlier for resident species overwintering at more advanced stages. Other traits related to habitat, feeding, dispersal, and voltinism had mixed or no impacts. Our results suggest that data integration can improve phenological research, and leveraging traits may predict phenology in poorly studied species.

Failure to advance migratory phenology in response to climate change may pose a significant threat to a declining Nearctic-Neotropical songbird

Populations of long-distance migrants that breed in seasonal habitats can be significantly impacted by climate change. We examined the migratory and breeding phenologies of the cerulean warbler (Setophaga cerulea), a declining long-distance Nearctic-Neotropical migrant that breeds in deciduous forests of Indiana. Our primary objectives were to determine temporal trends in cerulean warbler migratory timing, and to identify climate variables that explain variation in this species' migratory and breeding phenologies. We reviewed trends in cerulean warbler first arrival to Indiana from 1982 to 2019, and compared them to several explanatory climate variables: spring temperature, growing degree days (GDD), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, and Oceanic Niño Index (ONI). We also compared the timing of cerulean warbler first lay dates from 2012 to 2019 with the aforementioned climate variables and annual spring precipitation. Cerulean warblers exhibited a minimal advance in first arrival timing (≤4 days in 38 years). Arrival timing was best predicted by GDD and a null model, but trends in GDD indicate that spring warming in Indiana has advanced by a greater margin, approximately 14 days. Climate variables did not predict first lay timing better than a null model. Springtime in Indiana is occurring earlier, but cerulean warblers are advancing their migratory timing to a much smaller degree. This failure to adapt may have a detrimental effect on warbler populations if it results in an asynchronization of important biological timings between them and their prey. Further studies of cerulean warbler breeding and prey phenologies are necessary to determine how climate change is impacting this species' reproductive success.

Environmental Variables Influencing Five Speyeria (Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae) Species' Potential Distributions of Suitable Habitat in the Eastern United States

Five closely related species of greater fritillaries occur in North America east of the Mississippi River: regal fritillary (Speyeria idalia Drury [Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae]), Diana fritillary (Speyeria diana Cramer [Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae]), great spangled fritillary (Speyeria cybele Fabricius [Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae]), Atlantis fritillary (Speyeria atlantis Edwards [Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae]), and Aphrodite fritillary (Speyeria aphrodite Fabricius [Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae]). The regal fritillary and Diana fritillary are species of concern, whereas the great spangled fritillary, Atlantis fritillary, and Aphrodite fritillary are relatively abundant within their respective ranges. However, the Atlantis fritillary and Aphrodite fritillary have experienced severe population declines within the last few decades. We created ecological niche models for these five species by combining each species' known occurrences with climate and environmental variables to identify important response variables and determine the potential distribution of suitable habitat for each species. Important climate variables differed among species, although minimum temperature of the coldest month was important for great spangled, Atlantis, and Aphrodite fritillaries. The regal fritillary responded the most to temperature seasonality, whereas the Diana fritillary responded to maximum temperature of warmest month and the great spangled fritillary responded to annual precipitation. Land use was important for all species except the regal fritillary and average annual relative humidity was important for all species except the great spangled fritillary. This study highlights the different climate and habitat needs for greater fritillary species with important implications for how each species is expected to be impacted by climate change. We also demonstrate the value of citizen science and photo sharing websites for providing important data for evaluating species distributions.

The Impact of Climate Change on Agricultural Insect Pests

Climate change and global warming are of great concern to agriculture worldwide and are among the most discussed issues in today's society. Climate parameters such as increased temperatures, rising atmospheric CO2 levels, and changing precipitation patterns have significant impacts on agricultural production and on agricultural insect pests. Changes in climate can affect insect pests in several ways. They can result in an expansion of their geographic distribution, increased survival during overwintering, increased number of generations, altered synchrony between plants and pests, altered interspecific interaction, increased risk of invasion by migratory pests, increased incidence of insect-transmitted plant diseases, and reduced effectiveness of biological control, especially natural enemies. As a result, there is a serious risk of crop economic losses, as well as a challenge to human food security. As a major driver of pest population dynamics, climate change will require adaptive management strategies to deal with the changing status of pests. Several priorities can be identified for future research on the effects of climatic changes on agricultural insect pests. These include modified integrated pest management tactics, monitoring climate and pest populations, and the use of modelling prediction tools.

Grasshopper species' seasonal timing underlies shifts in phenological overlap in response to climate gradients, variability and change

Species with different life histories and communities that vary in their seasonal constraints tend to shift their phenology (seasonal timing) differentially in response to climate warming. We investigate how these variable phenological shifts aggregate to influence phenological overlap within communities. Phenological advancements of later season species and extended durations of early season species may increase phenological overlap, with implications for species' interactions such as resource competition. We leverage extensive historic (1958-1960) and recent (2006-2015) weekly survey data for communities of grasshoppers along a montane elevation gradient to assess the impact of climate on shifts in the phenology and abundance distributions of species. We then examine how these responses are influenced by the seasonal timing of species and elevation, and how in aggregate they influence degrees of phenological overlap within communities. In warmer years, abundance distributions shift earlier in the season and become broader. Total abundance responds variably among species and we do not detect a significant response across species. Shifts in abundance distributions are not strongly shaped by species' seasonal timing or sites of variable elevations. The area of phenological overlap increases in warmer years due to shifts in the relative seasonal timing of compared species. Species that overwinter as nymphs increasingly overlap with later season species that advance their phenology. The days of phenological overlap also increase in warm years but the response varies across sites of variable elevation. Our phenological overlap metric based on comparing single events-the dates of peak abundance-does not shift significantly with warming. Phenological shifts are more complex than shifts in single dates such as first occurrence. As abundance distributions shift earlier and become broader in warm years, phenological overlap increases. Our analysis suggests that overall grasshopper abundance is relatively robust to climate and associated phenological shifts but we find that increased overlap can decrease abundance, potentially by strengthening species interactions such as resource competition.

Global analysis reveals an environmentally driven latitudinal pattern in mushroom size across fungal species

Although macroecology is a well-established field, much remains to be learned about the large-scale variation of fungal traits. We conducted a global analysis of mean fruit body size of 59 geographical regions worldwide, comprising 5340 fungal species exploring the response of fruit body size to latitude, resource availability and temperature. The results showed a hump-shaped relationship between mean fruit body size and distance to the equator. Areas with large fruit bodies were characterised by a high seasonality and an intermediate mean temperature. The responses of mutualistic species and saprotrophs were similar. These findings support the resource availability hypothesis, predicting large fruit bodies due to a seasonal resource surplus, and the thermoregulation hypothesis, according to which small fruit bodies offer a strategy to avoid heat and cold stress and therefore occur at temperature extremes. Fruit body size may thus be an adaptive trait driving the large-scale distribution of fungal species.

Species traits affect phenological responses to climate change in a butterfly community

Diverse taxa have undergone phenological shifts in response to anthropogenic climate change. While such shifts generally follow predicted patterns, they are not uniform, and interspecific variation may have important ecological consequences. We evaluated relationships among species' phenological shifts (mean flight date, duration of flight period), ecological traits (larval trophic specialization, larval diet composition, voltinism), and population trends in a butterfly community in Pennsylvania, USA, where the summer growing season has become warmer, wetter, and longer. Data were collected over 7-19 years from 18 species or species groups, including the extremely rare eastern regal fritillary Speyeria idalia idalia. Both the direction and magnitude of phenological change over time was linked to species traits. Polyphagous species advanced and prolonged the duration of their flight period while oligophagous species delayed and shortened theirs. Herb feeders advanced their flight periods while woody feeders delayed theirs. Multivoltine species consistently prolonged flight periods in response to warmer temperatures, while univoltine species were less consistent. Butterflies that shifted to longer flight durations, and those that had polyphagous diets and multivoltine reproductive strategies tended to decline in population. Our results suggest species' traits shape butterfly phenological responses to climate change, and are linked to important community impacts.

Degree day-based model predicts pink bollworm phenology across geographical locations of subtropics and semi-arid tropics of India

There is a global concern about the effects of climate change driven shifts in species phenology on crop pests. Using geographically and temporally extensive data set of moth trap catches and temperatures across the cotton growing states of India, we predicted the phenology of cotton pink bollworm Pectinophora gossypiella (Saunders). Our approach was centered on growing degree days (GDD), a measure of thermal accumulation that provides a mechanistic link between climate change and species' phenology. The phenology change was predicted by calculating absolute error associated with DD and ordinal date, an alternative predictor of phenology, for peak moth abundance. Our results show that GDD outperformed the ordinal dates in predicting peak moth abundance in 6 out of 10 selected locations. Using established thresholds of 13.0/34.0 °C, mean DD accumulated between the consecutive moth peaks across different years were estimated at 504.05 ± 4.84. Seven generations were determined for pink bollworm in a cropping season, the length of which varied between 35 and 73 days in response to temperature. Pink bollworm population reached its peak during third generation which can be the target for management actions. The study provides essential information for developing pink bollworm management strategies under climate change.

The influence of climate variability on demographic rates of avian Afro-palearctic migrants

Climate is an important driver of changes in animal population size, but its effect on the underlying demographic rates remains insufficiently understood. This is particularly true for avian long-distance migrants which are exposed to different climatic factors at different phases of their annual cycle. To fill this knowledge gap, we used data collected by a national-wide bird ringing scheme for eight migratory species wintering in sub-Saharan Africa and investigated the impact of climate variability on their breeding productivity and adult survival. While temperature at the breeding grounds could relate to the breeding productivity either positively (higher food availability in warmer springs) or negatively (food scarcity in warmer springs due to trophic mismatch), water availability at the non-breeding should limit the adult survival and the breeding productivity. Consistent with the prediction of the trophic mismatch hypothesis, we found that warmer springs at the breeding grounds were linked with lower breeding productivity, explaining 29% of temporal variance across all species. Higher water availability at the sub-Saharan non-breeding grounds was related to higher adult survival (18% temporal variance explained) but did not carry-over to breeding productivity. Our results show that climate variability at both breeding and non-breeding grounds shapes different demographic rates of long-distance migrants.

A new comprehensive trait database of European and Maghreb butterflies, Papilionoidea

Trait-based analyses explaining the different responses of species and communities to environmental changes are increasing in frequency. European butterflies are an indicator group that responds rapidly to environmental changes with extensive citizen science contributions to documenting changes of abundance and distribution. Species traits have been used to explain long- and short-term responses to climate, land-use and vegetation changes. Studies are often characterised by limited trait sets being used, with risks that the relative roles of different traits are not fully explored. Butterfly trait information is dispersed amongst various sources and descriptions sometimes differ between sources. We have therefore drawn together multiple information sets to provide a comprehensive trait database covering 542 taxa and 25 traits described by 217 variables and sub-states of the butterflies of Europe and Maghreb (northwest Africa) which should serve for improved trait-based ecological, conservation-related, phylogeographic and evolutionary studies of this group of insects. We provide this data in two forms; the basic data and as processed continuous and multinomial data, to enhance its potential usage.

Measurement(s)	resources • Egg Laying • larval environment • pupal environment • geographic location • behavior • size • voltinism • phenology • host plant
Technology Type(s)	digital curation
Factor Type(s)	species
Sample Characteristic - Organism	Papilionoidea
Sample Characteristic - Location	Europe • Northwest Africa

Machine-accessible metadata file describing the reported data: 10.6084/m9.figshare.12998828

Assessing the responses of Sphagnum micro-eukaryotes to climate changes using high throughput sequencing

Current projections suggest that climate warming will be accompanied by more frequent and severe drought events. Peatlands store ca. one third of the world's soil organic carbon. Warming and drought may cause peatlands to become carbon sources through stimulation of microbial activity increasing ecosystem respiration, with positive feedback effect on global warming. Micro-eukaryotes play a key role in the carbon cycle through food web interactions and therefore, alterations in their community structure and diversity may affect ecosystem functioning and could reflect these changes. We assessed the diversity and community composition of Sphagnum-associated eukaryotic microorganisms inhabiting peatlands and their response to experimental drought and warming using high throughput sequencing of environmental DNA. Under drier conditions, micro-eukaryotic diversity decreased, the relative abundance of autotrophs increased and that of osmotrophs (including Fungi and Peronosporomycetes) decreased. Furthermore, we identified climate change indicators that could be used as early indicators of change in peatland microbial communities and ecosystem functioning. The changes we observed indicate a shift towards a more "terrestrial" community in response to drought, in line with observed changes in the functioning of the ecosystem.

A novel curation system to facilitate data integration across regional citizen science survey programs

Integrative modeling methods can now enable macrosystem-level understandings of biodiversity patterns, such as range changes resulting from shifts in climate or land use, by aggregating species-level data across multiple monitoring sources. This requires ensuring that taxon interpretations match up across different sources. While encouraging checklist standardization is certainly an option, coercing programs to change species lists they have used consistently for decades is rarely successful. Here we demonstrate a novel approach for tracking equivalent names and concepts, applied to a network of 10 regional programs that use the same protocols (so-called “Pollard walks”) to monitor butterflies across America north of Mexico. Our system involves, for each monitoring program, associating the taxonomic authority (in this case one of three North American butterfly fauna treatments: Pelham, 2014; North American Butterfly Association, Inc., 2016; Opler & Warren, 2003) that shares the most similar overall taxonomic interpretation to the program’s working species list. This allows us to define each term on each program’s list in the context of the appropriate authority’s species concept and curate the term alongside its authoritative concept. We then aligned the names representing equivalent taxonomic concepts among the three authorities. These stepping stones allow us to bridge a species concept from one program’s species list to the name of the equivalent in any other program, through the intermediary scaffolding of aligned authoritative taxon concepts. Using a software tool we developed to access our curation system, a user can link equivalent species concepts between data collecting agencies with no specialized knowledge of taxonomic complexities.

Plants with lengthened phenophases increase their dominance under warming in an alpine plant community

Predicting how shifts in plant phenology affect species dominance remains challenging, because plant phenology and species dominance have been largely investigated independently. Moreover, most phenological research has primarily focused on phenological firsts (leaf-out and first flower dates), leading to a lack of representation of phenological lasts (leaf senescence and last flower) and full phenological periods (growing season length and flower duration). Here, we simultaneously investigated the effects of experimental warming on different phenological events of various species and species dominance in an alpine meadow on the Tibetan Plateau. Warming significantly advanced phenological firsts for most species but had variable effects on phenological lasts. As a result, warming tended to extend species' full phenological periods, although this trend was not significant for all species. Experimental warming reduced community evenness and differentially impacted species dominance. Shifts in full phenological periods, rather than a single shift in phenological firsts or phenological lasts, were associated with changes in species dominance. Species with lengthened full phenological periods under warming increased their dominance. Our results advance the understanding of how altered species-specific phenophases relate to changes in community structure in response to climate change.

Accelerating invasion potential of disease vector Aedes aegypti under climate change

Vector-borne diseases remain a major contributor to the global burden of disease, while climate change is expected to exacerbate their risk. Characterising vector development rate and its spatio-temporal variation under climate change is central to assessing the changing basis of human disease risk. We develop a mechanistic phenology model and apply it to Aedes aegypti, an invasive mosquito vector for arboviruses (e.g. dengue, zika and yellow fever). The model predicts the number of life-cycle completions (LCC) for a given location per unit time based on empirically derived biophysical responses to environmental conditions. Results suggest that the world became ~1.5% more suitable per decade for the development of Ae. aegypti during 1950–2000, while this trend is predicted to accelerate to 3.2–4.4% per decade by 2050. Invasion fronts in North America and China are projected to accelerate from ~2 to 6 km/yr by 2050. An increase in peak LCC combined with extended periods suitable for mosquito development is simulated to accelerate the vector’s global invasion potential.

Understanding how life cycles of vectors respond to climatic factors is important to predict potential shifts in vector-borne disease risk in the coming decades. Here the authors develop a mechanistic phenological model for the invasive mosquito Aedes aegypti and apply it to project shifts under climate change scenarios.

Developmental trap or demographic bonanza? Opposing consequences of earlier phenology in a changing climate for a multivoltine butterfly

A rapidly changing climate has the potential to interfere with the timing of environmental cues that ectothermic organisms rely on to initiate and regulate life history events. Short-lived ectotherms that exhibit plasticity in their life history could increase the number of generations per year under warming climate. If many individuals successfully complete an additional generation, the population experiences an additional opportunity to grow, and a warming climate could lead to a demographic bonanza. However, these plastic responses could become maladaptive in temperate regions, where a warmer climate could trigger a developmental pathway that cannot be completed within the growing season, referred to as a developmental trap. Here we incorporated detailed demography into commonly used photothermal models to evaluate these demographic consequences of phenological shifts due to a warming climate on the formerly widespread, multivoltine butterfly (Pieris oleracea). Using species-specific temperature- and photoperiod-sensitive vital rates, we estimated the number of generations per year and population growth rate over the set of climate conditions experienced during the past 38 years. We predicted that populations in the southern portion of its range have added a fourth generation in recent years, resulting in higher annual population growth rates (demographic bonanzas). We predicted that populations in the Northeast United States have experienced developmental traps, where increases in the thermal window initially caused mortality of the final generation and reduced growth rates. These populations may recover if more growing degree days are added to the year. Our framework for incorporating detailed demography into commonly used photothermal models demonstrates the importance of using both demography and phenology to predict consequences of phenological shifts.

Butterfly abundance declines over 20 years of systematic monitoring in Ohio, USA

Severe insect declines make headlines, but they are rarely based on systematic monitoring outside of Europe. We estimate the rate of change in total butterfly abundance and the population trends for 81 species using 21 years of systematic monitoring in Ohio, USA. Total abundance is declining at 2% per year, resulting in a cumulative 33% reduction in butterfly abundance. Three times as many species have negative population trends compared to positive trends. The rate of total decline and the proportion of species in decline mirror those documented in three comparable long-term European monitoring programs. Multiple environmental changes such as climate change, habitat degradation, and agricultural practices may contribute to these declines in Ohio and shift the makeup of the butterfly community by benefiting some species over others. Our analysis of life-history traits associated with population trends shows an impact of climate change, as species with northern distributions and fewer annual generations declined more rapidly. However, even common and invasive species associated with human-dominated landscapes are declining, suggesting widespread environmental causes for these trends. Declines in common species, although they may not be close to extinction, will have an outsized impact on the ecosystem services provided by insects. These results from the most extensive, systematic insect monitoring program in North America demonstrate an ongoing defaunation in butterflies that on an annual scale might be imperceptible, but cumulatively has reduced butterfly numbers by a third over 20 years.

Spatial-temporal variations in the thermal growing degree-days and season under climate warming in China during 1960-2011

Vegetation growth and phenology are largely regulated by base temperature (T_b) and thermal accumulation. Hence, the growing degree-days (GDD) and growing season (GS) calculated based on T_b have primary effects on terrestrial ecosystems, and could be changed by the significant warming during the last century. By choosing 0, 5, and 10 °C, three key T_b for vegetation growth, the GDD and GS in China during 1960-2011 were developed based on 536 meteorological stations with homogenized daily mean temperatures. Results show that both the GDD and GS showed positive sensitivity to the annual mean temperature. The start of the growing season (SOS) has advanced by 4.86-6.71 days, and the end of the growing season (EOS) has been delayed by 4.32-6.19 days, lengthening the GS by 10.76-11.02 days in China as a whole during 1960-2011, depending on the T_b chosen. Consistently, the GDD has totally increased 218.92-339.40 °C days during the 52 years, with trends more pronounced in those based on a lower T_b. The GDD increase was significant (Mann-Kendall test, p < 0.01) over China except for the north of Southwest China, while the significant GS extension only scattered over China. Whereas the extensions of GS₀ and GS₅ were dominated by the advance in SOS, the GS₁₀ extension was closely linked to the delay in EOS. Regionally, the GS extension in the eastern monsoon zone and northwest arid/semi-arid zone was driven by the advance in SOS and delay in EOS, respectively. Moreover, each variation has a substantial acceleration mostly in 1987 or 1996, and a speed reduction or even a trend reversal in the early 2000s. Changes in the thermal growing degree-days and season are expected to have great implications for biological phenology, agricultural production, and terrestrial carbon cycle in the future.

Changes in agro-climatic indices related to temperature in Central Chile

Climate change has profound environmental and socio-economic implications. To analyze climate change in relation to crops, a wide variety of agro-climatic indices has been proposed by the scientific community. In this study, changes in a set of 12 agro-climatic indices related to temperature were investigated in Central Chile over a 56-year period (1961-2016). The indices were computed based on data referring to daily maximum and minimum temperatures (TX and TN). They were organized in two categories: (1) cold- and (2) heat-related indices. Cold-related indices consisted of first frost day (FFD), last frost day (LFD), frost period (FP), number of frost days (FD), accumulated frost (AF), and number of days when TN is below - 2 °C (FD-2). Heat-related indices included the growing degree day (GDD) index, calculated based on four thresholds which measure the available heat resources for a wide variety of plants with different thermal requirements, and two heat stress indices which quantify the number of days with TX above 25 °C (plant heat stress (PHS)) and above 30 °C (plant high heat stress (PHHS)). Changes in agro-climatic indices were investigated using the Mann-Kendall test and the Sen's slope estimator. The main results revealed that the FFD occurred later, while LFD occurred earlier, thus determining a shortening of the FP in the northern half of the studied area. Trends in FD, AF, and FD-2 indices generally indicated warmer conditions in terms of TN during the cold period of the year. Agro-climatic indices related to heat showed important changes in Central Chile. Thus, statistically, the majority of trends become significant and indicated enhanced condition for crops in respect of GDD indices. However, from the heat stress perspective, the analyzed indices showed that conditions become worse in most of the studied locations for crops sensible to temperatures higher than 25 and 30 °C.

Drifting Phenologies Cause Reduced Seasonality of Butterflies in Response to Increasing Temperatures

Climate change has caused many ecological changes around the world. Altered phenology is among the most commonly observed effects of climate change, and the list of species interactions affected by altered phenology is growing. Although many studies on altered phenology focus on single species or on pairwise species interactions, most ecological communities are comprised of numerous, ecologically similar species within trophic groups. Using a 12-year butterfly monitoring citizen science data set, we aimed to assess the degree to which butterfly communities may be changing over time. Specifically, we wanted to assess the degree to which phenological sensitivities to temperature could affect temporal overlap among species within communities, independent of changes in abundance, species richness, and evenness. We found that warming winter temperatures may be associated with some butterfly species making use of the coldest months of the year to fly as adults, thus changing temporal co-occurrence with other butterfly species. Our results suggest that changing temperatures could cause immediate restructuring of communities without requiring changes in overall abundance or diversity. Such changes could have fitness consequences for individuals within trophic levels by altering competition for resources, as well as indirect effects mediated by species interactions across trophic levels.

Potentials and Limitations of a Growing Degree Day Approach to Predict the Phenology of Cereal Leaf Beetles

Cereal leaf beetles (CLBs) are described as an invasive pest of small grain cereals in many regions worldwide. Prediction models aimed to prevent yield losses caused by these feeding insects have been developed by researchers all over the world. As a foundation for many of these prediction models, it is known that a specific number of heat units, or growing degree days (GDDs), is required for an insect to complete a certain physiological process. In this paper, we overview the existing GDD models for CLBs. Furthermore, we used our Belgian input data to compare model predictions with our own observations. Though, the existing models were not able to predict the seasonal trends present in our data: the occurrence of various life stages were monitored earlier then the model predicted. Hence, a weighted GDD model was tested on the data as well: the accumulated GDDs during certain periods were balanced according to the significance of this period for the insect. Rainfall and/or relative humidity were included as well. Based on these selected variables, multiple linear regression models, ridge regression models, and regression trees were fitted. This approach performed considerably better compared to the simple accumulation of GDD. However, based on cross-year cross-location validation method, to gain insight in the future performance of the models, the accuracy was still too low to serve as an accurate warning tool.

Altered spring phenology of North American freshwater turtles and the importance of representative populations

Globally, populations of diverse taxa have altered phenology in response to climate change. However, most research has focused on a single population of a given taxon, which may be unrepresentative for comparative analyses, and few long-term studies of phenology in ectothermic amniotes have been published. We test for climate-altered phenology using long-term studies (10-36 years) of nesting behavior in 14 populations representing six genera of freshwater turtles (Chelydra, Chrysemys, Kinosternon, Malaclemys, Sternotherus, and Trachemys). Nesting season initiation occurs earlier in more recent years, with 11 of the populations advancing phenology. The onset of nesting for nearly all populations correlated well with temperatures during the month preceding nesting. Still, certain populations of some species have not advanced phenology as might be expected from global patterns of climate change. This collection of findings suggests a proximate link between local climate and reproduction that is potentially caused by variation in spring emergence from hibernation, ability to process food, and thermoregulatory opportunities prior to nesting. However, even though all species had populations with at least some evidence of phenological advancement, geographic variation in phenology within and among turtle species underscores the critical importance of representative data for accurate comprehensive assessments of the biotic impacts of climate change.

Phenological shifts conserve thermal niches in North American birds and reshape expectations for climate-driven range shifts

Species respond to climate change in two dominant ways: range shifts in latitude or elevation and phenological shifts of life-history events. Range shifts are widely viewed as the principal mechanism for thermal niche tracking, and phenological shifts in birds and other consumers are widely understood as the principal mechanism for tracking temporal peaks in biotic resources. However, phenological and range shifts each present simultaneous opportunities for temperature and resource tracking, although the possible role for phenological shifts in thermal niche tracking has been widely overlooked. Using a canonical dataset of Californian bird surveys and a detectability-based approach for quantifying phenological signal, we show that Californian bird communities advanced their breeding phenology by 5-12 d over the last century. This phenological shift might track shifting resource peaks, but it also reduces average temperatures during nesting by over 1 °C, approximately the same magnitude that average temperatures have warmed over the same period. We further show that early-summer temperature anomalies are correlated with nest success in a continental-scale database of bird nests, suggesting avian thermal niches might be broadly limited by temperatures during nesting. These findings outline an adaptation surface where geographic range and breeding phenology respond jointly to constraints imposed by temperature and resource phenology. By stabilizing temperatures during nesting, phenological shifts might mitigate the need for range shifts. Global change ecology will benefit from further exploring phenological adjustment as a potential mechanism for thermal niche tracking and vice versa.

Monarch butterfly population decline in North America: identifying the threatening processes

The monarch butterfly (Danaus plexippus) population in North America has sharply declined over the last two decades. Despite rising concern over the monarch butterfly's status, no comprehensive study of the factors driving this decline has been conducted. Using partial least-squares regressions and time-series analysis, we investigated climatic and habitat-related factors influencing monarch population size from 1993 to 2014. Potential threats included climatic factors, habitat loss (milkweed and overwinter forest), disease and agricultural insecticide use (neonicotinoids). While climatic factors, principally breeding season temperature, were important determinants of annual variation in abundance, our results indicated strong negative relationships between population size and habitat loss variables, principally glyphosate use, but also weaker negative effects from the loss of overwinter forest and breeding season use of neonicotinoids. Further declines in population size because of glyphosate application are not expected. Thus, if remaining threats to habitat are mitigated we expect climate-induced stochastic variation of the eastern migratory population of monarch butterfly around a relatively stationary population size.

Phenological synchronization disrupts trophic interactions between Kodiak brown bears and salmon

Climate change is altering the seasonal timing of life cycle events in organisms across the planet, but the magnitude of change often varies among taxa [Thackeray SJ, et al. (2016) Nature 535:241-245]. This can cause the temporal relationships among species to change, altering the strength of interaction. A large body of work has explored what happens when coevolved species shift out of sync, but virtually no studies have documented the effects of climate-induced synchronization, which could remove temporal barriers between species and create novel interactions. We explored how a predator, the Kodiak brown bear (Ursus arctos middendorffi), responded to asymmetric phenological shifts between its primary trophic resources, sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) and red elderberry (Sambucus racemosa). In years with anomalously high spring air temperatures, elderberry fruited several weeks earlier and became available during the period when salmon spawned in tributary streams. Bears departed salmon spawning streams, where they typically kill 25-75% of the salmon [Quinn TP, Cunningham CJ, Wirsing AJ (2016) Oecologia 183:415-429], to forage on berries on adjacent hillsides. This prey switching behavior attenuated an iconic predator-prey interaction and likely altered the many ecological functions that result from bears foraging on salmon [Helfield JM, Naiman RJ (2006) Ecosystems 9:167-180]. We document how climate-induced shifts in resource phenology can alter food webs through a mechanism other than trophic mismatch. The current emphasis on singular consumer-resource interactions fails to capture how climate-altered phenologies reschedule resource availability and alter how energy flows through ecosystems.

Coral mass spawning predicted by rapid seasonal rise in ocean temperature

Coral spawning times have been linked to multiple environmental factors; however, to what extent these factors act as generalized cues across multiple species and large spatial scales is unknown. We used a unique dataset of coral spawning from 34 reefs in the Indian and Pacific Oceans to test if month of spawning and peak spawning month in assemblages of Acropora spp. can be predicted by sea surface temperature (SST), photosynthetically available radiation, wind speed, current speed, rainfall or sunset time. Contrary to the classic view that high mean SST initiates coral spawning, we found rapid increases in SST to be the best predictor in both cases (month of spawning: R(2) = 0.73, peak: R(2) = 0.62). Our findings suggest that a rapid increase in SST provides the dominant proximate cue for coral mass spawning over large geographical scales. We hypothesize that coral spawning is ultimately timed to ensure optimal fertilization success.