A Centenary Tale of Two Pandemics: The 1918 Influenza Pandemic and COVID-19, Part II

Disease X: Beyond Fear, Toward Preparedness

Abstract:

In recent years, there has been a growing concern regarding the increasing incidence of infectious diseases with potential global transmission [1]. The World Health Organization (WHO) coined the phrase "Disease X" to denote a theoretical infectious disease that has not yet been detected but has the capacity to cause a global pandemic. Disease X denotes an unidentified pathogenic agent with the potential to instigate a forthcoming global outbreak [2]. Commencing with a convened gathering on the 18th of November 2022, the WHO has initiated a comprehensive assembly of more than 300 esteemed experts. The primary objective of this assembly is to meticulously examine the available information pertaining to over 25 virus families, bacteria, and a hypothetical pathogen referred to as "Disease X." The initial publication of the list occurred in 2017.

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on self-harm and self-harm/suicide ideation: population-wide data linkage study and time series analysis

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 pandemic and associated lockdowns were predicted to have a major impact on suicidal behaviour, including self-harm. However, current studies have produced contradictory findings with limited trend data.

AIMS

Nine years of linked individual-level administrative data were utilised to examine changes in hospital-presenting self-harm and ideation (thoughts of self-harm or suicide) before and during the pandemic.

METHOD

National self-harm registry data were linked to demographic and socioeconomic indicators from healthcare registration records (n = 1 899 437). Monthly presentations of self-harm or ideation were split (pre-COVID-19 restrictions: April 2012 to February 2020; and during restrictions: March to September 2020). Auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were trained in R taking into consideration trends and seasonal effects. Forecast ('expected') monthly values were compared with 'actual' values, stratified by demographic factors and method of harm.

RESULTS

The number of individuals presenting with self-harm or ideation dropped significantly at the beginning of the pandemic (March-May 2020), before returning mostly to expected trends from June 2020. Stratified analysis showed similar presentation trends across most demographic subgroups except for those aged over 65 years, living alone or in affluent areas, where presentations remained unaffected, and those aged under 16 years, where numbers presenting with self-harm or ideation increased above expected levels.

CONCLUSIONS

Although population trends show an overall drop in presentations before a return to 'normal' from June 2020, the demographic profile of those presenting with self-harm or ideation varied significantly, with increases in children under the age of 16 years. This highlights important potential target groups who may have been most negatively affected by the pandemic.

Impact of the First Year of the COVID-19 on Unmet Healthcare Need among New York City Adults: a Universal Healthcare Experiment

We examined the impact of the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic on unmet healthcare need among New Yorkers and potential differences by race/ethnicity and health insurance. Data from the Community Health Survey, collected in 2018, 2019, and 2020, were merged to compare unmet healthcare need within the past 12 months during the pandemic versus the 2 years prior to 2020. Univariate and multivariable logistic regression models evaluated change in unmet healthcare need overall, and we assessed whether race/ethnicity or health insurance status modified the association. Overall, 12% of New Yorkers (N = 27,660) experienced unmet healthcare during the 3-year period. In univariate and multivariable models, the first year of the pandemic (2020) was not associated with change in unmet healthcare need compared with 2018-2019 (OR = 1.04, p = 0.548; OR = 1.03, p = 0.699, respectively). There was no statistically significant interaction between calendar year and race/ethnicity, but there was significant interaction with health insurance status (interaction p = 0.009). Stratifying on health insurance status, those uninsured had borderline significant lower odds of experiencing unmet healthcare need during 2020 compared to the 2 years prior (OR = 0.72, p = 0.051) while those with insurance had a slight increase that was not significant (OR = 1.12, p = 0.143). Unmet healthcare need among New Yorkers during the first year of the pandemic did not differ significantly from 2018-2019. Federal pandemic relief funding, which offered no-cost COVID-19 testing and care to all, irrespective of health insurance or legal status, may have helped equalized access to healthcare.

Have Diagnostics, Therapies, and Vaccines Made the Difference in the Pandemic Evolution of COVID-19 in Comparison with "Spanish Flu"?

In 1918 many countries, but not Spain, were fighting World War I. Spanish press could report about the diffusion and severity of a new infection without censorship for the first-time, so that this pandemic is commonly defined as "Spanish flu", even though Spain was not its place of origin. "Spanish flu" was one of the deadliest pandemics in history and has been frequently compared with the coronavirus disease (COVID)-19 pandemic. These pandemics share similarities, being both caused by highly variable and transmissible respiratory RNA viruses, and diversity, represented by diagnostics, therapies, and especially vaccines, which were made rapidly available for COVID-19, but not for "Spanish flu". Most comparison studies have been carried out in the first period of COVID-19, when these resources were either not yet available or their use had not long started. Conversely, we wanted to analyze the role that the advanced diagnostics, anti-viral agents, including monoclonal antibodies, and innovative COVID-19 vaccines, may have had in the pandemic containment. Early diagnosis, therapies, and anti-COVID-19 vaccines have markedly reduced the pandemic severity and mortality, thus preventing the collapse of the public health services. However, their influence on the reduction of infections and re-infections, thus on the transition from pandemic to endemic condition, appears to be of minor relevance. The high viral variability of influenza and coronavirus may probably be contained by the development of universal vaccines, which are not easy to be obtained. The only effective weapon still remains the disease prevention, to be achieved with the reduction of promiscuity between the animal reservoirs of these zoonotic diseases and humans.

Lessons Learned From Contact Tracing During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Public Health Students' Experiences in the Field

Contact tracing is a cornerstone in public health practice, providing an effective response to infectious disease outbreaks. Beginning in April 2020, as the COVID-19 pandemic spread quickly in the United States, public health departments increasingly relied on contact tracers to control disease spread and reduce the impact on the community. The Florida Department of Health (DOH) employed hundreds of public health students to pursue transmission control statewide as contact tracers. This study employed a qualitative thematic approach to capture 11 graduate-level public health students' experiences, motivations, challenges, and recommendations on contact tracing procedures as DOH contract tracers. In-depth interview questions focused on students' interest in public health, experiences as a contact tracer, patient/case interactions, and personal outlook on the COVID-19 pandemic. The COVID-19 pandemic brought new experiences and challenges for public health students employed by local health departments as contact tracers. Three categories and subthemes emerged from interviews: (1) motivations to work as a contact tracer, (2) challenges faced throughout employment, and (3) overall assessment of the contact tracing process. Identifying and understanding the work of contact tracers from the system-level perspective is vital as they contribute to improving training and working relationships with management and ultimately extend to the community. Lessons learned during the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic should help inform public health practice, especially when considering recruitment, curricula, training, and retention of the public health workforce in the face of current and emerging public health emergencies.

Immunoinformatics Identification of the Conserved and Cross-Reactive T-Cell Epitopes of SARS-CoV-2 with Human Common Cold Coronaviruses, SARS-CoV, MERS-CoV and Live Attenuated Vaccines Presented by HLA Alleles of Indonesian Population

Reports on T-cell cross-reactivity against SARS-CoV-2 epitopes in unexposed individuals have been linked with prior exposure to the human common cold coronaviruses (HCCCs). Several studies suggested that cross-reactive T-cells response to live attenuated vaccines (LAVs) such as BCG (Bacillus Calmette-Guérin), OPV (Oral Polio Vaccine), and MMR (measles, mumps, and rubella) can limit the development and severity of COVID-19. This study aims to identify potential cross-reactivity between SARS-CoV-2, HCCCs, and LAVs in the context of T-cell epitopes peptides presented by HLA (Human Leukocyte Antigen) alleles of the Indonesian population. SARS-CoV-2 derived T-cell epitopes were predicted using immunoinformatics tools and assessed for their conservancy, variability, and population coverage. Two fully conserved epitopes with 100% similarity and nine heterologous epitopes with identical T-cell receptor (TCR) contact residues were identified from the ORF1ab fragment of SARS-CoV-2 and all HCCCs. Cross-reactive epitopes from various proteins of SARS-CoV-2 and LAVs were also identified (15 epitopes from BCG, 7 epitopes from MMR, but none from OPV). A majority of the identified epitopes were observed to belong to ORF1ab, further suggesting the vital role of ORF1ab in the coronaviruses family and suggesting it as a candidate for a potential universal coronavirus vaccine that protects against severe disease by inducing cell mediated immunity.

A systematic survey of adults' health-protective behavior use during early COVID-19 pandemic in Canada, Germany, United Kingdom, and the United States, and vaccination hesitancy and status eight months later

Adoption of health-protective behaviors, including social distancing measures, are a mainstay of mitigating pandemics, so it is important to understand the characteristics associated with those who use them or not. We aimed to delineate local and personal factors associated with self-reported use of health-protective behaviors (HPB) in response to COVID-19, among adults across 4 economically developed countries. We conducted an exploratory, cross-sectional, representative, on-line survey of adults in Canada, Germany, U.K., or the U.S. during the COVID-19 pandemic (June-July, 2020) with two and eight month follow-ups. All countries were experiencing the initial waves of the COVID-19 pandemic. We obtained N=6,990 participants, who reported 20 specific health-protective behaviors (dependent measure), along with locally mandated health measures, individual characteristics and psychological scales. Using health-protective behaviors (HPB-Quartile score) was significantly associated with 28 of 35 variables studied. In stepwise logistic regression, 21 variables predicted 23.51% of the variance in HPB-Q scores (p <.000). The strongest predictors were locally mandated protective measures, immature defense mechanisms, COVID-fears, age, moving due to COVID-19, domestic violence, and perceived emotional support from significant others. HPB-Q predicted vaccination hesitancy/willingness (OR=4.61, CI-95%: 2.66-8.00) and adoption 8 months later. During the early pandemic, HPB use was most strongly associated with locally mandated measures, followed by psychiatric, demographic, and other personal factors. Considering these empirically derived characteristics may improve public health approaches to optimize HPB and vaccination adoption, mitigating SAR-CoV-2 transmission. Findings may also inform public health responses to future epidemics/pandemics.