Precision screening for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma in China

PET/CT deep learning prognosis for treatment decision support in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma

OBJECTIVES

The clinical decision-making regarding choosing surgery alone (SA) or surgery followed by postoperative adjuvant chemotherapy (SPOCT) in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) remains controversial. We aim to propose a pre-therapy PET/CT image-based deep learning approach to improve the survival benefit and clinical management of ESCC patients.

METHODS

This retrospective multicenter study included 837 ESCC patients from three institutions. Prognostic biomarkers integrating six networks were developed to build an ESCC prognosis (ESCCPro) model and predict the survival probability of ESCC patients treated with SA and SPOCT. Patients who did not undergo surgical resection were in a control group. Overall survival (OS) was the primary end-point event. The expected improvement in survival prognosis with the application of ESCCPro to assign treatment protocols was estimated by comparing the survival of patients in each subgroup. Seven clinicians with varying experience evaluated how ESCCPro performed in assisting clinical decision-making.

RESULTS

In this retrospective multicenter study, patients receiving SA had a median OS 9.2 months longer than controls. No significant differences in survival were found between SA patients with predicted poor outcomes and the controls (p > 0.05). It was estimated that if ESCCPro was used to determine SA and SPOCT eligibility, the median OS in the ESCCPro-recommended SA group and SPOCT group would have been 15.3 months and 24.9 months longer, respectively. In addition, ESCCPro also significantly improved prognosis accuracy, certainty, and the efficiency of clinical experts.

CONCLUSION

ESCCPro assistance improved the survival benefit of ESCC patients and the clinical decision-making among the two treatment approaches.

CRITICAL RELEVANCE STATEMENT

The ESCCPro model for treatment decision-making is promising to improve overall survival in ESCC patients undergoing surgical resection and patients undergoing surgery followed by postoperative adjuvant chemotherapy.

KEY POINTS

ESCC is associated with a poor prognosis and unclear ideal treatments. ESCCPro predicts the survival of patients with ESCC and the expected benefit from SA. ESCCPro improves clinicians' stratification of patients' prognoses.

A novel fatty acid metabolism-related signature identifies MUC4 as a novel therapy target for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma

Fatty acid metabolism has been identified as an emerging hallmark of cancer, which was closely associated with cancer prognosis. Whether fatty acid metabolism-related genes (FMGs) signature play a more crucial role in biological behavior of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) prognosis remains unknown. Thus, we aimed to identify a reliable FMGs signature for assisting treatment decisions and prognosis evaluation of ESCC. In the present study, we conducted consensus clustering analysis on 259 publicly available ESCC samples. The clinical information was downloaded from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA, 80 ESCC samples) and Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) database (GSE53625, 179 ESCC samples). A consensus clustering arithmetic was used to determine the FMGs molecular subtypes, and survival outcomes and immune features were evaluated among the different subtypes. Kaplan-Meier analysis and the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) was applied to evaluate the reliability of the risk model in training cohort, validation cohort and all cohorts. A nomogram to predict patients' 1-year, 3-year and 5-year survival rate was also studied. Finally, CCK-8 assay, wound healing assay, and transwell assay were implemented to evaluate the inherent mechanisms of FMGs for tumorigenesis in ESCC. Two subtypes were identified by consensus clustering, of which cluster 2 is preferentially associated with poor prognosis, lower immune cell infiltration. A fatty acid (FA) metabolism-related risk model containing eight genes (FZD10, TACSTD2, MUC4, PDLIM1, PRSS12, BAALC, DNAJA2 and ALOX12B) was established. High-risk group patients displayed worse survival, higher stromal, immune and ESTIMATE scores than in the low-risk group. Moreover, a nomogram revealed good predictive ability of clinical outcomes in ESCC patients. The results of qRT-PCR analysis revealed that the MUC4 and BAALC had high expression level, and FZD10, PDLIM1, TACSTD2, ALOX12B had low expression level in ESCC cells. In vitro, silencing MUC4 remarkably inhibited ESCC cell proliferation, invasion and migration. Our study fills the gap of FMGs signature in predicting the prognosis of ESCC patients. These findings revealed that cluster subtypes and risk model of FMGs had effects on survival prediction, and were expected to be the potential promising targets for ESCC.

Performance of Prediction Models for Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma in General Population: A Systematic Review and External Validation Study

INTRODUCTION

Prediction models for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) need to be proven effective in the target population before they can be applied to population-based endoscopic screening to improve cost-effectiveness. We have systematically reviewed ESCC prediction models applicable to the general population and performed external validation and head-to-head comparisons in a large multicenter prospective cohort including 5 high-risk areas of China (Fei Cheng, Lin Zhou, Ci Xian, Yang Zhong, and Yan Ting).

METHODS

Models were identified through a systematic review and validated in a large population-based multicenter prospective cohort that included 89,753 participants aged 40-69 years who underwent their first endoscopic examination between April 2017 and March 2021 and were followed up until December 31, 2022. Model performance in external validation was estimated based on discrimination and calibration. Discrimination was assessed by C-statistic (concordance statistic), and calibration was assessed by calibration plot and Hosmer-Lemeshow test.

RESULTS

The systematic review identified 15 prediction models that predicted severe dysplasia and above lesion (SDA) or ESCC in the general population, of which 11 models (4 SDA and 7 ESCC) were externally validated. The C-statistics ranged from 0.67 (95% confidence interval 0.66-0.69) to 0.70 (0.68-0.71) of the SDA models, and the highest was achieved by Liu et al (2020) and Liu et al (2022). The C-statistics ranged from 0.51 (0.48-0.54) to 0.74 (0.71-0.77), and Han et al (2023) had the best discrimination of the ESCC models. Most models were well calibrated after recalibration because the calibration plots coincided with the x = y line.

DISCUSSION

Several prediction models showed moderate performance in external validation, and the prediction models may be useful in screening for ESCC. Further research is needed on model optimization, generalization, implementation, and health economic evaluation.

Plasma-based lipidomics reveals potential diagnostic biomarkers for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma: a retrospective study

Background

Esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) is highly prevalent and has a high mortality rate. Traditional diagnostic methods, such as imaging examinations and blood tumor marker tests, are not effective in accurately diagnosing ESCC due to their low sensitivity and specificity. Esophageal endoscopic biopsy, which is considered as the gold standard, is not suitable for screening due to its invasiveness and high cost. Therefore, this study aimed to develop a convenient and low-cost diagnostic method for ESCC using plasma-based lipidomics analysis combined with machine learning (ML) algorithms.

Methods

Plasma samples from a total of 40 ESCC patients and 31 healthy controls were used for lipidomics study. Untargeted lipidomics analysis was conducted through liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry (LC-MS) analysis. Differentially expressed lipid features were filtered based on multivariate and univariate analysis, and lipid annotation was performed using MS-DIAL software.

Results

A total of 99 differential lipids were identified, with 15 up-regulated lipids and 84 down-regulated lipids, suggesting their potential as diagnostic targets for ESCC. In the single-lipid plasma-based diagnostic model, nine specific lipids (FA 15:4, FA 27:1, FA 28:7, FA 28:0, FA 36:0, FA 39:0, FA 42:0, FA 44:0, and DG 37:7) exhibited excellent diagnostic performance, with an area under the curve (AUC) exceeding 0.99. Furthermore, multiple lipid-based ML models also demonstrated comparable diagnostic ability for ESCC. These findings indicate plasma lipids as a promising diagnostic approach for ESCC.

Somatic CDKN2A copy number variations are associated with the prognosis of esophageal squamous cell dysplasia

BACKGROUND

Somatic copy number variations (SCNVs) in the CDKN2A gene are among the most frequent events in the dysplasia-carcinoma sequence of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma. However, whether CDKN2A SCNVs are useful biomarkers for the risk stratification and management of patients with esophageal squamous cell dysplasia (ESCdys) is unknown. This study aimed to investigate the characteristics and prognostic value of CDKN2A SCNVs in patients with mild or moderate (m/M) ESCdys.

METHODS

This study conducted a prospective multicenter study of 205 patients with a baseline diagnosis of m/M ESCdys in five high-risk regions of China (Ci County, Hebei Province; Yanting, Sichuan Province; Linzhou, Henan Province; Yangzhong, Jiangsu Province; and Feicheng, Shandong Province) from 2005 to 2019. Genomic DNA was extracted from paraffin biopsy samples and paired peripheral white blood cells from patients, and a quantitative polymerase chain reaction assay, P16-Light, was used to detect CDKN2A copy number. The cumulative regression and progression rates of ESCdys were evaluated using competing risk models.

RESULTS

A total of 205 patients with baseline m/M ESCdys were enrolled. The proportion of ESCdys regression was significantly lower in the CDKN2A deletion cohort than in the diploid and amplification cohorts (18.8% [13/69] vs. 35.0% [28/80] vs. 51.8% [29/56], P  <0.001). In the univariable competing risk analysis, the cumulative regression rate was statistically significantly lower ( P = 0.008), while the cumulative progression rate was higher ( P = 0.017) in ESCdys patients with CDKN2A deletion than in those without CDKN2A deletion. CDKN2A deletion was also an independent predictor of prognosis in ESCdys ( P = 0.004) in the multivariable analysis.

CONCLUSION

The results indicated that CDKN2A SCNVs are associated with the prognosis of ESCdys and may serve as potential biomarkers for risk stratification.

Esophageal cancer screening, early detection and treatment: Current insights and future directions

Esophageal cancer ranks among the most prevalent malignant tumors globally, primarily due to its highly aggressive nature and poor survival rates. According to the 2020 global cancer statistics, there were approximately 604000 new cases of esophageal cancer, resulting in 544000 deaths. The 5-year survival rate hovers around a mere 15%-25%. Notably, distinct variations exist in the risk factors associated with the two primary histological types, influencing their worldwide incidence and distribution. Squamous cell carcinoma displays a high incidence in specific regions, such as certain areas in China, where it meets the cost-effectiveness criteria for widespread endoscopy-based early diagnosis within the local population. Conversely, adenocarcinoma (EAC) represents the most common histological subtype of esophageal cancer in Europe and the United States. The role of early diagnosis in cases of EAC originating from Barrett's esophagus (BE) remains a subject of controversy. The effectiveness of early detection for EAC, particularly those arising from BE, continues to be a debated topic. The variations in how early-stage esophageal carcinoma is treated in different regions are largely due to the differing rates of early-stage cancer diagnoses. In areas with higher incidences, such as China and Japan, early diagnosis is more common, which has led to the advancement of endoscopic methods as definitive treatments. These techniques have demonstrated remarkable efficacy with minimal complications while preserving esophageal functionality. Early screening, prompt diagnosis, and timely treatment are key strategies that can significantly lower both the occurrence and death rates associated with esophageal cancer.

Development and external validation of a quantitative diagnostic model for malignant gastric lesions in clinical opportunistic screening: A multicenter real-world study

BACKGROUND

Clinical opportunistic screening is a cost-effective cancer screening modality. This study aimed to establish an easy-to-use diagnostic model serving as a risk stratification tool for identification of individuals with malignant gastric lesions for opportunistic screening.

METHODS

We developed a questionnaire-based diagnostic model using a joint dataset including two clinical cohorts from northern and southern China. The cohorts consisted of 17,360 outpatients who had undergone upper gastrointestinal endoscopic examination in endoscopic clinics. The final model was derived based on unconditional logistic regression, and predictors were selected according to the Akaike information criterion. External validation was carried out with 32,614 participants from a community-based randomized controlled trial.

RESULTS

This questionnaire-based diagnostic model for malignant gastric lesions had eight predictors, including advanced age, male gender, family history of gastric cancer, low body mass index, unexplained weight loss, consumption of leftover food, consumption of preserved food, and epigastric pain. This model showed high discriminative power in the development set with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.791 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.750-0.831). External validation of the model in the general population generated an AUC of 0.696 (95% CI: 0.570-0.822). This model showed an ideal ability for enriching prevalent malignant gastric lesions when applied to various scenarios.

CONCLUSION

This easy-to-use questionnaire-based model for diagnosis of prevalent malignant gastric lesions may serve as an effective prescreening tool in clinical opportunistic screening for gastric cancer.

MiR-302a-3p reduces cisplatin resistance of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma cells by targeting EphA2

Platinum-based chemotherapy is a common clinical treatment for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC), and chemoresistance is a major leading reason for cancer treatment failure. MiR-302a-3p is involved in the development of many diseases. Here, we investigated the role of miR-302a-3p in the cisplatin resistance of ESCC cells and explored its potential mechanism via molecular techniques. The expression of miR-302a-3p was significantly reduced, while the expressions of EphA2 were increased in ESCC tumor tissues and cells. EphA2 was one target gene of miR-302a-3p, and was negatively regulated by miR-302a-3p. By regulating EphA2, miR-302a-3p reduced the viability and promoted the apoptosis of ECA109 cells treated with cisplatin, suggesting that miR-302a-3p could enhance the sensitivity of ECA109 cells to cisplatin treatment by targeting EphA2. MiR-302a-3p plays an important role in reducing cisplatin resistance by inhibiting EphA2, suggesting that it may be a promising therapeutic strategy for cisplatin resistance in ESCC in the future.

Challenge and future of cancer screening in China: Insights from esophageal cancer screening practice

Cancer stands as a prominent public health concern in China, with elusive intervention targets due to unidentified high-risk causal factors for most cancers. Consequently, emphasis has shifted towards screening, diagnosing, and treating early cancer cases within the general population. However, China faces considerable obstacles in its cancer prevention and control efforts, attributing to the complexity and heterogeneity of the occurrence, progression, and prognosis of malignant tumors across populations, time, and regions. Taking esophageal cancer screening practices as an example, this review outlines the importance and assessment of cancer screening, delineating major challenges in China's cancer prevention and control: 1) limited comprehension of cancer's natural history; 2) lack of "China Evidence" supporting screening effectiveness and value; 3) compromised efficiency and accuracy in current screening modality; and 4) insufficient sustainability of the current screening practices and translation of relevant scientific research achievements. To address these challenges, we propose potential coping strategies: 1) establishing tailored technologies and pathways for cancer prevention and control based on population-based and clinical epidemiological studies using high-quality designs; 2) breaking conventional constraints to establish a novel cancer screening strategy aligned with real-world needs; and 3) establishing enhanced communication platforms among scientific research teams, policymakers, and industrial institutions to foster collaboration and innovation.

Overview of Risk Factors for Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma in China

(1) Background: China has the highest esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) incidence areas in the world, with some areas of incidence over 100 per 100,000. Despite extensive public health efforts, its etiology is still poorly understood. This study aims to review and summarize past research into potential etiologic factors for ESCC in China. (2) Methods: Relevant observational and intervention studies were systematically extracted from four databases using key terms, reviewed using Rayyan software, and summarized into Excel tables. (3) Results: Among the 207 studies included in this review, 129 studies were focused on genetic etiologic factors, followed by 22 studies focused on dietary-related factors, 19 studies focused on HPV-related factors, and 37 studies focused on other factors. (4) Conclusions: ESCC in China involves a variety of factors including genetic variations, gene-environment interactions, dietary factors like alcohol, tobacco use, pickled vegetables, and salted meat, dietary behavior such as hot food/drink consumption, infections like HPV, poor oral health, gastric atrophy, and socioeconomic factors. Public health measures should prioritize genetic screening for relevant polymorphisms, conduct comprehensive investigations into environmental, dietary, and HPV influences, enhance oral health education, and consider socioeconomic factors overall as integral strategies to reduce ESCC in high-risk areas of China.

Prognostic and immunological role of cancer-associated fibroblasts-derived exosomal protein in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Cancer-associated fibroblasts (CAFs) are a crucial component of the tumor microenvironment (TME) and play significant roles in tumor initiation, progression, and immune evasion. Despite this, the specific exosomal proteins derived from CAFs and their functions in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) remain unknown. Therefore, this study aims to investigate the impact and prognostic significance of CAFs-derived exosomal proteins in ESCC.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Exosomes obtained from CAFs and normal fibroblasts (NFs) were isolated using ultracentrifugation, and the protein expression profiles of the exosomes were analyzed using liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS). Tumor proliferation was assessed using CCK-8 and colony formation assays, while cell invasion and migration were evaluated using transwell assays. Lasso regression analysis was employed to establish a signature based on CAFs-derived exosomal proteins using the TCGA database. The immunological and prognostic roles of this signature were comprehensively investigated through survival analysis, gene set enrichment analysis (GSEA), immune analysis, immunotherapy response analysis, and drug sensitivity analysis. The GSE160269 dataset was utilized for single-cell transcriptome analysis to further elucidate the role of the signature in the TME. Additionally, cDNA microarray analysis was utilized to validate the prognostic value of the signature.

RESULTS

Our findings demonstrate that exosomes derived from CAFs significantly enhance the proliferation, invasion, and migration of esophageal cancer cells. We identified 842 differentially expressed exosomal proteins through LC-MS/MS analysis, and two key proteins were utilized to establish a risk signature. Survival analysis revealed a significantly worse prognosis in the high-risk group, with multivariate analysis indicating that the risk score serves as an independent prognostic factor. Moreover, we observed a significant correlation between the risk score and immune cell infiltration, immunotherapy response, and sensitivity to chemotherapeutic treatments in the study population. Lastly, single-cell transcriptome analysis further revealed the expression patterns of TNFRSF10B and ILF3 in different cell subpopulations.

CONCLUSION

In conclusion, our study has successfully established a robust prognostic signature based on CAFs-derived exosomal proteins, which can serve as a reliable biomarker for predicting prognosis and evaluating the immune microenvironment in ESCC.

Curcumin inhibits esophageal squamous cell carcinoma progression through down-regulating the circNRIP1/miR-532-3p/AKT pathway

Curcumin shows an anti-cancer role in many kinds of tumors. However, the mechanism of its anti-tumor function in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) remains largely unknown. Herein, we explored the therapeutic potential of curcumin for esophageal cancer. Curcumin could time- and dose-dependently inhibit ESCC cells activity. Additionally, ESCC cells exposed to 20 μM of curcumin exhibited significantly decreased proliferative and invasive capacities, as well as enhanced cell apoptosis. ESCC tissues and cells exhibited significantly increased circNRIP1 expression when compared to their counterparts. circNRIP1 knockdown markedly impaired cell proliferation, clone formation, cell migration and invasion but promoted apoptosis. Exposure to 10-20 μM of curcumin inhibited circNRIP1 expression, however, overexpression of circNRIP1 could significantly restored the biological characteristics that were inhibited by curcumin exposure in vivo and in vitro. circNRIP1 promoted the malignancy of ESCC by combining miR-532-3p, and downstream AKT3. Curcumin inhibited AKT phosphorylation by up-regulating miR-532-3p expression, thereby inhibiting the activation of the AKT pathway. In summary, curcumin is a potent inhibitor of ESCC growth, which can be achieved through the regulation of the circNRIP1/miR-532-3p/AKT pathway. This research may provide new mechanisms for curcumin to inhibit the malignant development of ESCC.

Long-term esophageal cancer risk and distinct surveillance intervals after a single endoscopy screening: a multicentre population-based cohort study

Background

Endoscopy surveillance is recommended for mild-moderate dysplasia and negative endoscopy findings every 3 years and 5 years, respectively, but evidence is limited. This study aimed to assess long-term esophageal cancer (EC) incidence and mortality after a single endoscopy screening.

Methods

We included individuals at high risk of EC aged 40-69 years who underwent endoscopy screening in 2007-2012 at six centres in rural China and had a baseline diagnosis of negative endoscopy findings, mild dysplasia, or moderate dysplasia. Participants were followed up for EC incidence and mortality. Cumulative incidence and mortality rates of EC were estimated by Kaplan-Meier analyses. Cox regression models were used to calculate adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for associations between baseline endoscopy diagnosis and the risk of EC incidence and mortality. EC incidence and mortality after a single endoscopy screening were compared with those of the population in rural China by the standardized incidence ratio (SIR) and standardized mortality ratio (SMR).

Findings

A total of 42,827 participants (40,977 with negative endoscopy findings, 1562 with mild dysplasia, and 288 with moderate dysplasia) were included; 268 EC cases and 128 EC deaths were identified during a median follow-up of 10.62 years. The cumulative EC incidence at 10 years was 0.45% (0.38-0.52) in the group with negative endoscopy findings, 2.39% (1.62-3.16) in the mild dysplasia group, and 8.90% (5.57-12.24) in the moderate dysplasia group, and the cumulative EC mortality at 10 years was 0.23% (0.18-0.27), 0.96% (0.46-1.46), and 2.50% (0.67-4.33), respectively. Compared with individuals with negative endoscopy findings, the HRs for EC incidence and mortality in the mild dysplasia group were 3.52 (2.49-4.97) and 2.43 (1.41-4.19), and those in the moderate dysplasia group were 13.18 (8.78-19.76) and 6.46 (3.13-13.29), respectively. The SIR was 0.53 (0.40-0.70) for the group with negative endoscopy findings, 1.95 (1.69-2.24) for the mild dysplasia group, and 6.75 (6.25-7.28) for the moderate dysplasia group, with the SMRs of 0.43 (0.31-0.58), 1.07 (0.88-1.29) and 2.67 (2.36-3.01), respectively.

Interpretation

Individuals with negative endoscopy findings after a single endoscopy screening had a lower EC risk than the general population for up to 10.62 years, while those with mild-moderate dysplasia had an elevated risk. Our results support endoscopy surveillance for mild-moderate dysplasia every 3 years and suggest extending the interval to 10 years after a negative endoscopy finding.

Funding

National Key R&D Programme of China, Special Project of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Basic Research Cooperation, and Sanming Project of Medicine in Shenzhen.

A novel DNA damage repair gene-related prognostic model for evaluating the prognosis and tumor microenvironment infiltration of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to investigate the potential prognostic value of DNA damage repair genes (DDRGs) in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) and their relationship with immune-related characteristics.

METHODS

We analyzed DDRGs of the Gene Expression Omnibus database (GSE53625). Subsequently, the GSE53625 cohort was used to construct a prognostic model based on least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression, and Cox regression analysis was used to construct a nomogram. The immunological analysis algorithms explored the differences between the potential mechanism, tumor immune activity, and immunosuppressive genes in the high- and low-risk groups. Of the prognosis model-related DDRGs, we selected PPP2R2A for further investigation. Functional experiments were conducted to evaluate the effect on ESCC cells in vitro.

RESULTS

A 5-DDRG (ERCC5, POLK, PPP2R2A, TNP1 and ZNF350) prediction signature was established for ESCC, stratifying patients into two risk groups. Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that the 5-DDRG signature was an independent predictor of overall survival. Immune cells such as CD4 T cells and monocytes displayed lower infiltration levels in the high-risk group. Additionally, the immune, ESTIMATE, and stromal scores in the high-risk group were all considerably higher than those in the low-risk group. Functionally, knockdown of PPP2R2A significantly suppressed cell proliferation, migration and invasion in two ESCC cell lines (ECA109 and TE1).

CONCLUSION

The clustered subtypes and prognostic model of DDRGs could effectively predict the prognosis and immune activity of ESCC patients.

Wnt signaling pathway-related gene PRICKLE1 is a prognostic biomarker for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma

Esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) has become a major health risk to human health. Although significant clinical progress has been made in the treatment of ESCC, the prognosis of patients still needs to be improved. Therefore, it is important to screen effective molecular indicators for the prognosis of ESCC. In this study, the intersection of up-regulated genes, down-regulated genes, and Wnt signaling pathway-related genes in ESCC was taken, and 47 overlapping genes were found. PRICKLE1 was determined to be an independent prognostic factor in ESCC based on univariate and multifactorial COX risk regression models. Kaplan-Meier survival curves showed that patients in the PRICKLE1 high expression group had significantly better overall survival. In addition, we performed various experiments to examine the effects of PRICKLE1 overexpression on proliferation, migration, and apoptosis of ESCC cells. The experimental results showed that the PRICKLE1-OE group had reduced cell viability, significantly lower migration ability and significantly higher apoptosis rate compared to the NC group.Therefore, we hypothesized that high PRICKLE1 expression could be used to predict the survival rate of ESCC patients, which could be used as an independent prognostic indicator for ESCC patients and provide potential applications for ESCC clinical treatment.

Hsa_circ_0021727 (circ-CD44) promotes ESCC progression by targeting miR-23b-5p to activate the TAB1/NFκB pathway

Esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) is characterized by high morbidity and mortality. Circular RNAs (circRNAs) play an important role in tumor progression. We discovered an aberrantly expressed circRNA (hsa_circ_0021727) in patients with ESCC. However, the mechanism of action of hsa_circ_0021727 in tumors is unclear. The present study aimed to investigate the biological role of hsa_circ_0021727 and its mechanism in ESCC progression. We screened for the expression of hsa_circ_0021727 in ESCC patients. Patients with ESCC with high expression of hsa_circ_0021727 had shorter survival than those with low expression. Hsa_circ_0021727 promoted the proliferation, invasion, and migration of ESCC cells. However, miR-23b-5p inhibited this ability of hsa_circ_0021727. MiR-23b-5p acts by targeting TAK1-binding protein 1 (TAB1). Upregulation of TAB1 can activate the nuclear factor kappa B (NFκB) pathway. Hsa_circ_0021727 promoted ESCC progression by activating TAB1/NFκB pathway by sponging miR-23b-5p. In addition, in vivo experiments also confirmed that hsa_circ_0021727 could promote the proliferation, invasion, and migration of ESCC cells. In short, hsa_circ_0021727 promotes ESCC progression by targeting miR-23b-5p to activate the TAB1/NFκB pathway. These findings might provide potential targets to treat ESCC.

Development and Validation of Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma Risk Prediction Models Based on an Endoscopic Screening Program

IMPORTANCE

Assessment tools are lacking for screening of esophageal squamous cell cancer (ESCC) in China, especially for the follow-up stage. Risk prediction to optimize the screening procedure is urgently needed.

OBJECTIVE

To develop and validate ESCC prediction models for identifying people at high risk for follow-up decision-making.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This open, prospective multicenter diagnostic study has been performed since September 1, 2006, in Shandong Province, China. This study used baseline and follow-up data until December 31, 2021. The data were analyzed between April 6 and May 31, 2022. Eligibility criteria consisted of rural residents aged 40 to 69 years who had no contraindications for endoscopy. Among 161 212 eligible participants, those diagnosed with cancer or who had cancer at baseline, did not complete the questionnaire, were younger than 40 years or older than 69 years, or were detected with severe dysplasia or worse lesions were eliminated from the analysis.

EXPOSURES

Risk factors obtained by questionnaire and endoscopy.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Pathological diagnosis of ESCC and confirmation by cancer registry data.

RESULTS

In this diagnostic study of 104 129 participants (56.39% women; mean [SD] age, 54.31 [7.64] years), 59 481 (mean [SD] age, 53.83 [7.64] years; 58.55% women) formed the derivation set while 44 648 (mean [SD] age, 54.95 [7.60] years; 53.51% women) formed the validation set. A total of 252 new cases of ESCC were diagnosed during 424 903.50 person-years of follow-up in the derivation cohort and 61 new cases from 177 094.10 person-years follow-up in the validation cohort. Model A included the covariates age, sex, and number of lesions; model B included age, sex, smoking status, alcohol use status, body mass index, annual household income, history of gastrointestinal tract diseases, consumption of pickled food, number of lesions, distinct lesions, and mild or moderate dysplasia. The Harrell C statistic of model A was 0.80 (95% CI, 0.77-0.83) in the derivation set and 0.90 (95% CI, 0.87-0.93) in the validation set; the Harrell C statistic of model B was 0.83 (95% CI, 0.81-0.86) and 0.91 (95% CI, 0.88-0.95), respectively. The models also had good calibration performance and clinical usefulness.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

The findings of this diagnostic study suggest that the models developed are suitable for selecting high-risk populations for follow-up decision-making and optimizing the cancer screening process.

Is Adjuvant Therapy a Better Option for Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma Patients Treated With Esophagectomy? A Prognosis Prediction Model Based on Multicenter Real-World Data

OBJECTIVE

To construct a prediction model for more precise evaluation of prognosis which will allow personalized treatment recommendations for adjuvant therapy in patients following resection of ESCC.

BACKGROUND

Marked heterogeneity of patient prognosis and limited evidence regarding survival benefit of various adjuvant therapy regimens pose challenges in the clinical treatment of ESCC.

METHODS

Based on comprehensive clinical data obtained from 4129 consecutive patients with resected ESCC in a high-risk region in China, we identified predictors for overall survival through a 2-phase selection based on Cox proportional hazard regression and minimization of Akaike information criterion. The model was internally validated using bootstrapping and externally validated in 1815 patients from a non-high-risk region in China.

RESULTS

The final model incorporates 9 variables: age, sex, primary site, T stage, N stage, number of lymph nodes harvested, tumor size, adjuvant treatment, and hemoglobin level. A significant interaction was also observed between N stage and adjuvant treatment. N1+ stage patients were likely to benefit from addition of adjuvant therapy as opposed to surgery alone, but adjuvant therapy did not improve overall survival for N0 stage patients. The C -index of the model was 0.729 in the training cohort, 0.723 after bootstrapping, and 0.695 in the external validation cohort. This model outperformed the seventh edition American Joint Committee on Cancer staging system in prognostic prediction and risk stratification.

CONCLUSIONS

The prediction model constructed in this study may facilitate precise prediction of survival and inform decision-making about adjuvant therapy according to N stage.

Cost-effectiveness of precision screening for esophageal cancer based on individualized risk stratification in China: Real-world evidence from the ESECC trial

BACKGROUND

Conventional universal endoscopic screening with pathology-based endoscopic re-examination for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma is in need of reform in China. We established a "two-step" precision screening strategy using two risk prediction models and have evaluated the cost-effectiveness of this precision strategy compared with the traditional strategy based on a large population-level randomized controlled trial from a healthcare provider's perspective.

METHODS

Four precision screening strategies with different risk cutoffs at baseline screening and endoscopic surveillance were constructed, and then compared with traditional strategy through modeling using subjects from the screening cohort of the ESECC (Endoscopic Screening for Esophageal Cancer in China) trial. Total screening costs and the number of SDA (severe dysplasia and above in lesions of the esophagus) cases were obtained to calculate the average screening cost per SDA detected, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) and protection rates. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to evaluate uncertainties.

RESULTS

Compared to traditional strategy, all precision screening strategies have much lower average costs for detection of one SDA case ($7,148~$11,537 vs. $14,944). In addition, precision strategies 1&2 (strategies 1,2,3,4 described below) achieved higher effectiveness (143~150 vs. 136) and higher protection rates (87.7%~92.0% vs. 83.4%) at lower cost ($1,649,727~$1,672,221 vs. $2,032,386), generating negative ICERs (-$54,666/SDA~-$25,726/SDA) when compared to the traditional strategy. The optimal strategies within different willingness-to-pay (WTP) ranges were all precision screening strategies, and higher model sensitivities were adopted as WTP increased.

CONCLUSIONS

Precision screening strategy for esophageal cancer based on risk stratification is more cost-effective than use of traditional screening strategy and has practical implications for esophageal cancer screening programs in China.

Development and External Validation of an Improved Version of the Diagnostic Model for Opportunistic Screening of Malignant Esophageal Lesions

We aimed to develop an improved version of the diagnostic model predicting the risk of malignant esophageal lesions in opportunistic screening and validate it in external populations. The development set involved 10,595 outpatients receiving endoscopy from a hospital in Hua County, a high-risk region for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma in northern China. Validation set A enrolled 9453 outpatients receiving endoscopy in a non-high-risk region in southern China. Validation set B involved 17,511 residents in Hua County. The improved diagnostic model consisted of seven predictors including age, gender, family history of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma, smoking, body mass index, dysphagia, and retrosternal pain, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.860 (95% confidence interval: 0.835-0.886) in the development set. Ideal discrimination ability was achieved in external validations (AUC _{validation set A}: 0.892, 95% confidence interval: 0.858-0.926; AUC _{validation set B}: 0.799, 95% confidence interval: 0.705-0.894). This improved model also markedly increased the detection rate of malignant esophageal lesions compared with universal screening, demonstrating great potential for use in opportunistic screening of malignant esophageal lesions in heterogeneous populations.

Effect of the Age-Adjusted Charlson Comorbidity Index on the Survival of Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma Patients after Radical Esophagectomy

We aimed to investigate whether the age-adjusted Charlson comorbidity index (ACCI) can predict the postoperative overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) patients. Between 1 July 2015 and 31 July 2021, a retrospective cohort study was conducted among patients with primary ESCC who underwent radical esophagectomy. A total of 352 patients were included, with median age of 63.00 (IQR (interquartile range) 56.00-68.00). The patients were divided into low (n = 300) and high (n = 52) ACCI groups based on the optimal cut-off value of 5 points. Chronic pulmonary disease (38.4%) was the most common comorbidity. The results of the multivariate Cox regression showed that the ACCI (HR = 1.63, 95%CI: 1.04-2.56), tumor size (HR = 1.67, 95%CI: 1.05-2.66), pTNM (II vs. I, HR = 4.74, 95%CI: 1.82-12.32; III vs. I, HR = 6.08, 95%CI: 2.37-15.60), and postoperative chemotherapy (HR = 0.60, 95%CI: 0.40-0.91) were significantly associated with the OS. Furthermore, the ACCI, tumor size, pTNM, and postoperative chemotherapy were also significantly associated with the CSS. Interactions were identified between the ACCI and postoperative chemotherapy, pTNM stage, and tumor size in relation to the OS and CSS. In conclusion, the ACCI may be an independent prognostic factor affecting the long-term prognosis of patients after radical esophagectomy.

Prognostic value of circulating tumour DNA during post-radiotherapy surveillance in locally advanced esophageal squamous cell carcinoma

BACKGROUND

The potential of circulating tumour DNA (ctDNA) as a reliable biomarker for relapse/metastasis early detection and prognosis in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) after radiotherapy/chemoradiotherapy (RT/CRT) initiation requires comprehensive investigation.

METHODS

Treatment-naive locally advanced ESCC patients with available baseline plasma samples were prospectively enrolled from November 2018 to January 2020. RT/CRT was delivered with a simultaneous integrated boost of radiation dose. Serial plasma samples were collected at baseline (T0 ), week 4 of RT/CRT (T1 ), 1-3 (T2 ) and 3-6 months post-RT/CRT (T3 ). ctDNA was analysed using next-generation sequencing of 474 cancer-relevant genes.

RESULTS

A total of 128 plasma samples from 40 eligible patients were analysed (median age: 64 [range: 40-78], 88% males, 95% stage III/IV), and the median follow-up time was 20.6 months (range: 12.2-33.3). During the post-RT/CRT surveillance including 36 patients, radiological progression was observed in 16 patients, and 69% (11/16) had detectable post-RT/CRT ctDNA prior to radiological progression, with a median lead time of 4.4 months compared with radiological imaging. ctDNA positivity at T1 (hazard ratio, HR: 3.60, 95% confidence interval, CI: 1.30-10.01) or T2 (HR: 5.45, 95% CI: 1.72-17.26) indicated inferior progression-free survival (PFS). ctDNA clearance between T0 -T1 (HR: 0.31, 95% CI: 0.08-1.13) or T0 -T2 (HR: 0.11; 95% CI: 0.02-0.61) was associated with relatively favourable PFS. Similar results were obtained when focusing on patients without esophagectomy after RT/CRT. Notably, detectable ctDNA at T1 was a potential indicator of high local recurrence risks (HR: 4.43, 95% CI: 1.31-15.04).

CONCLUSIONS

ctDNA was identified as a robust biomarker for early detection of disease progression and post-RT/CRT prognosis stratification in ESCC. Detectable ctDNA at week 4 of RT/CRT might indicate higher local recurrence risks, implying the potential clinical utility of ctDNA tests in guiding post-RT/CRT treatments for locoregional control in ESCC.

Characterization of plasma exosomal microRNAs in responding to radiotherapy of human esophageal squamous cell carcinoma

Radiotherapy is one of the main treatment methods for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC). Previous research has shown that plasma exosomal microRNAs (miRNAs) can predict therapeutic outcome. In the present study, to identify potential exosomal miRNAs that respond to radiotherapy, plasma exosomal miRNAs from ESCC patients undergoing radiotherapy were isolated and sequenced. Upregulated and downregulated miRNAs were detected from patients pre- and post-radiotherapy, and it was found that they play distinct roles in DNA damage process and endosomal mediated transport. Based on wound healing and Cell Counting Kit-8 assays in TE-1 human esophageal cancer cells, it was identified that representative miRNA miR-652 and miR-30a alter migration but not proliferation. The present findings identified differentially expressed miRNAs in responding to radiotherapy, and added a reference to explore non-invasive plasma biomarkers to evaluate therapeutic effects in ESCC.

Establishment of a risk model by integrating hypoxia genes in predicting prognosis of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) has a dismal prognosis, and hypoxia plays a key role in metastasis and proliferation of ESCC. Thus, we aimed to develop a hypoxia-based gene signature to assist in the treatment decisions and prognosis.

METHODS

We performed consensus clustering analysis on samples from GSE53625 dataset from the Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) database and used weighted gene co-expression network analysis to filter out candidate modules, which were then intersected with differentially expressed genes from clustered subgroups to obtain hypoxia-related genes (HRGs). After that, the aforementioned genes were used to construct risk score models and validated in The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) database and Cox regression analysis were used to construct a nomogram. Immunohistochemical was used to detect protein expression levels of relevant genes. Moreover, the relationship between risk scores and tumor microenvironment was explored.

RESULTS

A hypoxia risk model containing six genes (PNPLA1, CARD18, IL-18, SLC37A2, ADAMTS18, and FAM83C) was constructed by screening key HRGs. Poorer prognosis in the high-risk group than in the low-risk group. And Cox regression analysis showed that risk score was an independent prognostic factor. The nomogram based on risk scores could well predict 1-, 3-, and 5-year survival. P53, Wnt, and hypoxia signaling pathways may be some regulatory mechanisms of hypoxia associated with the tumor microenvironment. In addition, we confirmed the high expression of BGN and low expression of IL-18 in ESCC tissues.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study determined the prognostic value of a 6-hypoxia gene signature and a prognostic model, providing potential prognostic predictors and therapeutic targets for ESCC.

CircCDR1 sponges miR-1290 to regulate cell proliferation, migration, invasion, and apoptosis in esophageal squamous cell cancer

Since circCDR1 was abnormally expressed in esophageal squamous cell cancer (ESCC), the current study explored whether circCDR1 affected ESCC. Detailedly, circCDR1 expression in ESCC and linear isoform and stability of circCDR1 were detected by RT-qPCR. The location of circCDR1 was detected by fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH). After transfection, the cell biological functions were detected by wound-healing, CCK-8, colony formation, and flow cytometry assays. The target of circCDR1 was predicted by bioinformatics, FISH, RNA pull-down, and dual-luciferase reporter assays. The correlation between circCDR1 and miR-1290 was analyzed by Pearson's correlation analysis. A subcutaneous-xenotransplant tumor model in BALB/c nude mice was established and the levels of circCDR1, miR-1290, and apoptosis/metastasis/proliferation-related factors in the cancer cells and tissues were detected by immunohistochemical analysis, western blot, or RT-qPCR. As a result, circCDR1 was low-expressed in ESCC tissues and cells, while miR-1290 was high-expressed. CircCDR1 was regulated and was negatively correlated with miR-1290. CircCDR1, located in cytoplasm, inhibited the viability, proliferation, migration, and invasion of the cancer cells and the expressions of Bcl-2, N-cadherin, and Vimentin, but enhanced cell apoptosis and the expressions of C caspase-3, Bax, E-cadherin, IGFBP4, LHX6 and NFIX. In vivo, circCDR1 promoted xenotransplanted tumor weight and volume, and the expressions of C caspase-3 and Bax yet suppressed the levels of Bcl-2, miR-1290, and Ki-67 in tumor tissues. The effects of circCDR1 on both cancer cells and tissues were opposite to and reversed by miR-1290 mimic. Collectively, circCDR1 sponged miR-1290 to regulate the progression of ESCC both in vitro and in vivo.

Update and validation of a diagnostic model to identify prevalent malignant lesions in esophagus in general population

BACKGROUND

Previous risk prediction models taking esophageal malignant lesions detected during endoscopy as the primary outcome are not always sufficient to identify prevalent cases which are "overlooked" at screening. We aimed to update and externally validate our previous risk prediction model for malignant esophageal lesions by redefining the predicted outcome.

METHODS

15,192 individuals from the Endoscopic Screening for Esophageal Cancer in China randomized controlled trial (ESECC trial, NCT01688908) were included as the training set, and 4576 participants from another population-based esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) screening cohort (Anyang Esophageal Cancer Cohort Study, AECCS) served as the external validation set. Lesions with severe dysplasia or worse diagnosed at chromoendoscopy or identified via follow-up within 1 year after screening were defined as main outcome. Logistic regressions were applied to reconstruct the questionnaire-based prediction model using information collected before screening, with Akaike Information Criterion to determine the model structure.

FINDINGS

The final prediction model included age and its quadratic term, family history of ESCC, low body mass index (≤22 kg/m²), use of coal or wood as main fuel for cooking, eating rapidly, and ingestion of leftover food. The area under the curve was 0·77 (95% CI: 0·73-0·80) and 0·71 (95% CI: 0·65-0·78) in the training and validation set. When screening the top 50% or 10% of high-risk individuals within population, the detection rates can be increased in both cohorts, as compared to universal screening.

INTERPRETATION

The described tool may promote the efficiency of current national screening programs for ESCC and contribute to a precision screening strategy in high-risk regions in China.

FUNDING

This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (82073626, 81773501), the National Science & Technology Fundamental Resources Investigation Program of China (2019FY101102), the National Key R&D Program of China (2021YFC2500405), the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Basic Research Cooperation Project (J200016), the Digestive Medical Coordinated Development Center of Beijing Hospitals Authority (XXZ0204) and the Beijing Nova Program (Z201100006820093). Sponsors had no role in the study design, data collection, analysis, and interpretation of data.

Development and validation of a nomogram for prediction of cervical lymph node metastasis in middle and lower thoracic esophageal squamous cell carcinoma

Background

Estimates of cervical lymph node (LN) metastasis in patients with middle and lower thoracic esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) are important. A nomogram is a useful tool for individualized prediction.

Methods

A total of 235 patients were enrolled in this study. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to screen for independent risk factors and construct a nomogram to predict the risk of cervical LN metastasis. The nomogram performance was assessed by discrimination, calibration, and clinical use.

Results

Totally, four independent predictors, including the maximum diameter of tumor, paraesophageal lymph node status, recurrent laryngeal nerve lymph node status, and the CT-reported cervical LN status, were enrolled in the nomogram. The AUC of the nomogram model in the training and validation dataset were 0.833 (95% CI 0.762–0.905), 0.808 (95% CI 0.696–0.920), respectively. The calibration curve demonstrated a strong consistency between nomogram and clinical findings in predicting cervical LN metastasis. Decision curve analysis demonstrated that the nomogram was clinically useful.

Conclusion

We developed a nomogram that could be conveniently used to predict the individualized risk of cervical LN metastasis in patients with middle and lower thoracic ESCC.

Feasibility of using P16 methylation as a cytologic marker for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma screening: A pilot study

BACKGROUND

Early diagnosis and treatment of esophageal squamous cell dysplasia (ESCdys) and esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) could significantly reduce the incidence and mortality of ESCC. This pilot study aimed to investigate whether P16/CDKN2A methylation could serve as a cytologic biomarker for early detection of ESCdys and ESCC.

METHODS

Paired esophageal biopsy and cytology specimens (exfoliated cells) were obtained from subjects at different stages of ESCC development. The methylation status of P16 gene in these two specimen types was determined using a 115-bp MethyLight assay. Categorical data were compared by the Chi-square test. Logistic regression was performed to assess adjusted odds ratios of P16 methylation associated with ESCC and ESCdys. Prediction models for identifying individuals at risk of ESCC and high-grade ESCdys (high-grade intraepithelial neoplasia, HGIN) were developed by multivariable logistic regression. Diagnostic performance was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. Internal validation of the prediction models was performed using the 1000-bootstrap resample.

RESULTS

A total of 105 subjects with diagnoses ranging from normal mucosa through ESCC were included in this study. An increase in P16 methylation frequency was observed with increasing severity of esophageal lesions (p for trend <0.001). In the adjusted logistic regression models, P16 methylation in cytology specimens was positively associated with ESCC and ESCdys risk, whereas P16 methylation in biopsy specimens was only associated with a higher risk of developing ESCC. The predictive capacity of base model I (AUC, 0.816) for ESCC and HGIN was significantly increased by adding P16 methylation in cytology specimens (model III; AUC, 0.882; p = 0.043), but not P16 methylation in biopsy specimens (model II; AUC, 0.850; p = 0.225). Bootstrap validation showed optimism-corrected AUC of 0.789 for model I, 0.822 for model II, and 0.854 for model III.

CONCLUSION

P16 methylation as a cytologic marker was associated with the ESCC development and has the potential for application in minimally invasive ESCC screening.

Esophageal cancer: Epidemiology, risk factors and screening

More than 600,000 people are diagnosed with esophageal cancer (EC) every year globally, and the five-year survival rate of EC is less than 20%. Two common histological subtypes of EC, esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) and esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC), have great geographical variations in incidence rates. About half of the world's EC was diagnosed in China and a majority of which belong to ESCC. Globally, the overall incidence rate of EC is decreasing. In some high-risk Asian regions, such as China, the incidence rate of ESCC has generally declined, potentially due to economic growth and improvement of diet habits. In some European high-income countries and the United States, the decline is mainly attributed to the decrease in smoking and drinking. The risk factors of EC are not well understood, and the importance of environmental and genetic factors in the pathogenesis is also unclear. The incidence and mortality of advanced EC can be reduced through early diagnosis and screening. White light endoscopy is still the gold standard in the current screening technology. This article reviews the epidemiology, risk factors, and screening strategies of EC in recent years to help researchers determine the most effective management strategies to reduce the risk of EC.

Development and Validation of an Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma Risk Prediction Model for Rural Chinese: Multicenter Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

There are rare prediction models for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) for rural Chinese population. We aimed to develop and validate a prediction model for ESCC based on a cohort study for the population.

METHODS

Data of 115,686 participants were collected from esophageal cancer (EC) early diagnosis and treatment of cancer program as derivation cohort while data of 54,750 participants were collected as validation cohort. Risk factors considered included age, sex, smoking status, alcohol drinking status, body mass index (BMI), tea drinking status, marital status, annual household income, source of drinking water, education level, and diet habit. Cox proportional hazards model was used to develop ESCC prediction model at 5 years. Calibration ability, discrimination ability, and decision curve analysis were analyzed in both derivation and validation cohort. A score model was developed based on prediction model.

RESULTS

One hundred eighty-six cases were diagnosed during 556,949.40 person-years follow-up in the derivation cohort while 120 cases from 277,302.70 in the validation cohort. Prediction model included the following variables: age, sex, alcohol drinking status, BMI, tea drinking status, and fresh fruit. The model had good discrimination and calibration performance: R 2, D statistic, and Harrell's C statistic of prediction model were 43.56%, 1.70, and 0.798 in derivation cohort and 45.19%, 1.62, and 0.787 in validation cohort. The calibration analysis showed good coherence between predicted probabilities and observed probabilities while decision curve analysis showed clinical usefulness. The score model was as follows: age (3 for 45-49 years old; 4 for 50-54 years old; 7 for 55-59 years old; 9 for 60-64 years; 10 for 65-69 years), sex (5 for men), BMI (1 for ≤25), alcohol drinking status (2 for alcohol drinkers), tea drinking status (2 for tea drinkers), and fresh fruit (2 for never) and showed good discrimination ability with area under the curve and its 95% confidence interval of 0.792 (0.761,0.822) in the deviation cohort and 0.773 (0.736,0.811) in the validation cohort. The calibration analysis showed great coherence between predicted probabilities and observed probabilities.

CONCLUSIONS

We developed and validated an ESCC prediction model using cohort study with good discrimination and calibration capability which can be used for EC screening for rural Chinese population.