The Summit Score Stratifies Mortality and Morbidity in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease

Association of the Intermountain Risk Score with major adverse health events in patients positive for COVID-19: an observational evaluation of a US cohort

OBJECTIVES

The Intermountain Risk Score (IMRS), composed using published sex-specific weightings of parameters in the complete blood count (CBC) and basic metabolic profile (BMP), is a validated predictor of mortality. We hypothesised that IMRS calculated from prepandemic CBC and BMP predicts COVID-19 outcomes and that IMRS using laboratory results tested at COVID-19 diagnosis is also predictive.

DESIGN

Prospective observational cohort study.

SETTING

Primary, secondary, urgent and emergent care, and drive-through testing locations across Utah and in sections of adjacent US states. Viral RNA testing for SARS-CoV-2 was conducted from 3 March to 2 November 2020.

PARTICIPANTS

Patients aged ≥18 years were evaluated if they had CBC and BMP measured in 2019 and tested positive for COVID-19 in 2020.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

The primary outcome was a composite of hospitalisation or mortality, with secondary outcomes being hospitalisation and mortality separately.

RESULTS

Among 3883 patients, 8.2% were hospitalised and 1.6% died. Subjects with low, mild, moderate and high-risk IMRS had the composite endpoint in 3.5% (52/1502), 8.6% (108/1256), 15.5% (152/979) and 28.1% (41/146) of patients, respectively. Compared with low-risk, subjects in mild-risk, moderate-risk and high-risk groups had HR=2.33 (95% CI 1.67 to 3.24), HR=4.01 (95% CI 2.93 to 5.50) and HR=8.34 (95% CI 5.54 to 12.57), respectively. Subjects aged <60 years had HR=3.06 (95% CI 2.01 to 4.65) and HR=7.38 (95% CI 3.14 to 17.34) for moderate and high risks versus low risk, respectively; those ≥60 years had HR=1.95 (95% CI 0.99 to 3.86) and HR=3.40 (95% CI 1.63 to 7.07). In multivariable analyses, IMRS was independently predictive and was shown to capture substantial risk variation of comorbidities.

CONCLUSIONS

IMRS, a simple risk score using very basic laboratory results, predicted COVID-19 hospitalisation and mortality. This included important abilities to identify risk in younger adults with few diagnosed comorbidities and to predict risk prior to SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Validation of the Summit Lab Score in Predicting Exacerbations of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Among Individuals with High Arterial Stiffness

INTRODUCTION

The presence of cardiovascular (CV) risk factors and CV disease in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) leads to worse outcomes. A number of tools are currently available to stratify the risk of adverse outcomes in these patients with COPD. This post hoc analysis evaluated the Summit Lab Score for validation as a predictor of the first episode of moderate-to-severe acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) and other outcomes, in patients with COPD and high arterial pulse wave velocity (aPWV).

METHODS

Data from a multicenter, randomized, placebo-controlled, double-blind study were retrospectively analyzed to evaluate treatment effects of once-daily fluticasone furoate/vilanterol 100/25 μg in patients with COPD and an elevated CV risk (aPWV≥11m/s) over 24 weeks. The previously derived Summit Lab Score and, secondarily, the Intermountain Risk Score (IMRS) were computed for each patient, with patients then stratified into tertiles for each score. Risk of moderate-to-severe AECOPD was analyzed across tertiles using Kaplan-Meier survival curve and Cox regression analyses.

RESULTS

In 430 patients with COPD, Kaplan-Meier probabilities of no moderate-to-severe AECOPD for Summit Lab Score tertiles 1, 2, and 3 were 92.3%, 95.5%, and 85.1%, respectively (P trend = 0.015), over 24 weeks. Grouped by IMRS tertiles, the respective probabilities were 92.9%, 91.2%, and 88.3%, respectively (P trend = 0.141). Length of stay in the hospital (P = 0.034) and the hospital ward (P = 0.042) were also significantly different between Summit Lab Score tertiles but not for intensive care (P = 0.191).

CONCLUSION

The Summit Lab Score was associated with the 24-week risk of moderate-to-severe AECOPD in COPD patients with elevated CV risk. Secondarily, IMRS showed a trend towards differences in the risk of AECOPD, which was not statistically significant.