Predicting frequent COPD exacerbations using primary care data

Developing and validating prediction models for severe exacerbations and readmissions in patients hospitalised for COPD exacerbation (SERCO) in China: a prospective observational study

BACKGROUND

There is a lack of individualised prediction models for patients hospitalised with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) for clinical practice. We developed and validated prediction models of severe exacerbations and readmissions in patients hospitalised for COPD exacerbation (SERCO).

METHODS

Data were obtained from the Acute Exacerbations of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Inpatient Registry study (NCT02657525) in China. Cause-specific hazard models were used to estimate coefficients. C-statistic was used to evaluate the discrimination. Slope and intercept were used to evaluate the calibration and used for model adjustment. Models were validated internally by 10-fold cross-validation and externally using data from different regions. Risk-stratified scoring scales and nomograms were provided. The discrimination ability of the SERCO model was compared with the exacerbation history in the previous year.

RESULTS

Two sets with 2196 and 1869 patients from different geographical regions were used for model development and external validation. The 12-month severe exacerbations cumulative incidence rates were 11.55% (95% CI 10.06% to 13.16%) in development cohorts and 12.30% (95% CI 10.67% to 14.05%) in validation cohorts. The COPD-specific readmission incidence rates were 11.31% (95% CI 9.83% to 12.91%) and 12.26% (95% CI 10.63% to 14.02%), respectively. Demographic characteristics, medical history, comorbidities, drug usage, Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease stage and interactions were included as predictors. C-indexes for severe exacerbations were 77.3 (95% CI 70.7 to 83.9), 76.5 (95% CI 72.6 to 80.4) and 74.7 (95% CI 71.2 to 78.2) at 1, 6 and 12 months. The corresponding values for readmissions were 77.1 (95% CI 70.1 to 84.0), 76.3 (95% CI 72.3 to 80.4) and 74.5 (95% CI 71.0 to 78.0). The SERCO model was consistently discriminative and accurate with C-indexes in the derivation and internal validation groups. In external validation, the C-indexes were relatively lower at 60-70 levels. The SERCO model discriminated outcomes better than prior severe exacerbation history. The slope and intercept after adjustment showed close agreement between predicted and observed risks. However, in external validation, the models may overestimate the risk in higher-risk groups. The model-driven risk groups showed significant disparities in prognosis.

CONCLUSION

The SERCO model provides individual predictions for severe exacerbation and COPD-specific readmission risk, which enables identifying high-risk patients and implementing personalised preventive intervention for patients with COPD.

A Long-Term Study of Adverse Outcomes Associated With Oral Corticosteroid Use in COPD

Background

Oral corticosteroids (OCS) are often prescribed for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) exacerbations.

Methods

This observational, individually matched historical cohort study used electronic medical records (1987-2019) from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink linked to English Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) to evaluate adverse outcomes in patients with COPD who used OCS (OCS cohort) and those not exposed to OCS (non-OCS cohort). Risk of 17 adverse outcomes was estimated using proportional hazard regression.

Results

Of 323,722 patients, 106,775 (33.0%) had COPD-related OCS prescriptions. Of the 106,775 patients in the overall cohort, 58,955 had HES linkage and were eligible for inclusion in the OCS cohort. The individual matching process identified 53,299 pairs of patients to form the OCS and non-OCS cohorts. Median follow-up post-index was 6.9 years (OCS cohort) and 5.4 years (non-OCS cohort). Adjusted risk of multiple adverse outcomes was higher for the OCS cohort versus the non-OCS cohort, including osteoporosis with/without fractures (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.80; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.70-1.92), type 2 diabetes mellitus (aHR 1.44; 95% CI 1.37-1.51), cardiovascular/cerebrovascular disease (aHR 1.26; 95% CI 1.21-1.30), and all-cause mortality (aHR 1.04; 95% CI 1.02-1.07). In the OCS cohort, risk of most adverse outcomes increased with increasing categorized cumulative OCS dose. For example, risk of cardiovascular/cerebrovascular disease was 34% higher in the 1.0-<2.5 g group versus the <0.5 g group (HR 1.34; 95% CI 1.26-1.42).

Conclusion

Any OCS use was associated with higher risk of adverse outcomes in patients with COPD, with risk generally increasing with greater cumulative OCS dose.

Blood Eosinophil Count as a Predictive Biomarker of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Exacerbation in a Real-World Setting

Introduction

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is the third leading cause of death, and COPD exacerbation worsens the prognosis. Eosinophilic airway inflammation is a COPD phenotype that causes COPD exacerbation and is correlated with peripheral blood eosinophil count. We analyzed real-world data of COPD patients to assess the risk factors of COPD exacerbation focusing on blood eosinophils.

Materials and Methods

Patients with COPD who visited our hospital between January 1, 2018, and December 31, 2018, were recruited, and their background information, spirometry data, laboratory test results, and moderate-to-severe exacerbation events during the one-year follow-up period were collected from the electronic medical records and analyzed. The COPD exacerbation risk factors were assessed using univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses.

Results

Twenty-two of 271 (8.1%) patients experienced moderate-to-severe exacerbation. Patients with exacerbation showed worse pulmonary function, and we found that a high blood eosinophil count (≥350 cells/μL; p=0.014), low % FEV1 (<50%; p=0.002), increase in white blood cell (≥9000 cells/μL; p=0.039), and use of home oxygen therapy (p=0.005) were risk factors for future exacerbations. We also found a strong correlation between eosinophil count cut-offs and exacerbation risk (r = 0.89, p < 0.001). On the other hand, there was no relation between exacerbation risk and inhalation therapy for COPD.

Conclusion

In a real-world setting, peripheral blood eosinophil count could be a predictor of future COPD exacerbation.

Community determinants of COPD exacerbations in elderly patients in Lodz province, Poland: a retrospective observational Big Data cohort study

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the prevalence and identify demographic, economic and environmental local community determinants of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) exacerbations in elderly in primary care using Big Data approach.

DESIGN

Retrospective observational case-control study based on Big Data from the National Health Found, Tax Office and National Statistics Center databases in 2016.

SETTING

Primary care clinics in the Lodz province in Poland.

PARTICIPANTS

472 314 patients aged 65 and older in primary care, including 17 240 patients with COPD and 1784 with exacerbations (including deaths).

OUTCOME MEASURES

Exacerbations with demographic, economic and environmental local community determinants were retrieved. Conditional logistic regression for matched pairs was used to evaluate the local community determinants of COPD exacerbations among patients with COPD.

RESULTS

The overall prevalence of COPD in the population of elderly patients registered in primary healthcare clinic clinics in Lodz province in 2016 was 3.65%, 95% CI (3.60% to 3.70%) and the prevalence of exacerbations was 10.35%, 95% CI (9.89% to 10.80%). The high number of consultations in primary care clinics was associated with higher risk of COPD exacerbations (p=0.0687).High-income patients were less likely to have exacerbations than low-income patients (high vs low OR 0.601, 95% CI (0.385 to 0.939)). The specialisation of the primary care physician did not have an effect on exacerbations (OR 1.076, 95% CI (0.920 to 1.257)). Neither the forest cover per gmina (high vs low OR 0.897, 95% CI (0.605 to 1.331); medium vs low OR 0.925, 95% CI (0.648 to 1.322)), nor location of gmina (urban vs urban-rural OR 1.044; 95% CI (0.673 to 1.620)), (rural vs urban-rural OR 0.897, 95% CI (0.630 to 1.277)) appears to influence COPD exacerbations.

CONCLUSIONS

Big Data statistical analysis facilitated the evaluation of the prevalence and determinants of COPD exacerbation in the elderly residents of Lodz province, Poland.Modification of identified local community determinants may potentially decrease the number of exacerbations in elderly patients with COPD.

Experience of using a triple fixed combination in the treatment of patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

Aim. To evaluate the effectiveness of a fixed triple combination of vilanterol/umeclidinium bromide/fluticasone furoate in the treatment of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients with frequent exacerbations. Materials and methods. The study included 46 patients with severe and extremely severe COPD (GOLD 34) with frequent exacerbations. All patients were divided into 2 groups. The 1st group included 22 COPD patients with a content of eosinophils in the peripheral blood of 300 cells/ml, the 2nd group included 24 COPD patients with no signs of eosinophilic inflammation in the peripheral blood. Group 1 patients were recommended therapy with a fixed triple combination of vilanterol/umeclidinium bromide/fluticasone furoate at a dose of 22/55/92 mcg 1 time per day, group 2 patients received vilanterol+umeclidinium bromide at a dose of 22/55 mcg 1 time per day. The duration of follow-up was 12 months. Results. After 12 months of treatment with a fixed triple combination of vilanterol/umeclidinium bromide/fluticasone furoate, a statistically significant decrease in peripheral blood eosinophilia was noted in patients with COPD with frequent exacerbations and peripheral blood eosinophilia (p=0.001), as well as a decrease in shortness of breath on the MMRs scale (p=0.001) and the frequency of exacerbations in patients with COPD with frequent exacerbations and eosinophilia (p=0.001). Conclusion. The use of a fixed combination of vilanterol/umeclidinium bromide/fluticasone furoate for 12 months allowed to reduce the impact of the disease, improve respiratory function and quality of life in COPD patients with eosinophilia.

Automatically Explaining Machine Learning Predictions on Severe Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Exacerbations: Retrospective Cohort Study

Background

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a major cause of death and places a heavy burden on health care. To optimize the allocation of precious preventive care management resources and improve the outcomes for high-risk patients with COPD, we recently built the most accurate model to date to predict severe COPD exacerbations, which need inpatient stays or emergency department visits, in the following 12 months. Our model is a machine learning model. As is the case with most machine learning models, our model does not explain its predictions, forming a barrier for clinical use. Previously, we designed a method to automatically provide rule-type explanations for machine learning predictions and suggest tailored interventions with no loss of model performance. This method has been tested before for asthma outcome prediction but not for COPD outcome prediction.

Objective

This study aims to assess the generalizability of our automatic explanation method for predicting severe COPD exacerbations.

Methods

The patient cohort included all patients with COPD who visited the University of Washington Medicine facilities between 2011 and 2019. In a secondary analysis of 43,576 data instances, we used our formerly developed automatic explanation method to automatically explain our model’s predictions and suggest tailored interventions.

Results

Our method explained the predictions for 97.1% (100/103) of the patients with COPD whom our model correctly predicted to have severe COPD exacerbations in the following 12 months and the predictions for 73.6% (134/182) of the patients with COPD who had ≥1 severe COPD exacerbation in the following 12 months.

Conclusions

Our automatic explanation method worked well for predicting severe COPD exacerbations. After further improving our method, we hope to use it to facilitate future clinical use of our model.

International Registered Report Identifier (IRRID)

RR2-10.2196/13783

Developing a Machine Learning Model to Predict Severe Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Exacerbations: Retrospective Cohort Study

Background

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) poses a large burden on health care. Severe COPD exacerbations require emergency department visits or inpatient stays, often cause an irreversible decline in lung function and health status, and account for 90.3% of the total medical cost related to COPD. Many severe COPD exacerbations are deemed preventable with appropriate outpatient care. Current models for predicting severe COPD exacerbations lack accuracy, making it difficult to effectively target patients at high risk for preventive care management to reduce severe COPD exacerbations and improve outcomes.

Objective

The aim of this study is to develop a more accurate model to predict severe COPD exacerbations.

Methods

We examined all patients with COPD who visited the University of Washington Medicine facilities between 2011 and 2019 and identified 278 candidate features. By performing secondary analysis on 43,576 University of Washington Medicine data instances from 2011 to 2019, we created a machine learning model to predict severe COPD exacerbations in the next year for patients with COPD.

Results

The final model had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.866. When using the top 9.99% (752/7529) of the patients with the largest predicted risk to set the cutoff threshold for binary classification, the model gained an accuracy of 90.33% (6801/7529), a sensitivity of 56.6% (103/182), and a specificity of 91.17% (6698/7347).

Conclusions

Our model provided a more accurate prediction of severe COPD exacerbations in the next year compared with prior published models. After further improvement of its performance measures (eg, by adding features extracted from clinical notes), our model could be used in a decision support tool to guide the identification of patients with COPD and at high risk for care management to improve outcomes.

International Registered Report Identifier (IRRID)

RR2-10.2196/13783

Predictive modeling of COPD exacerbation rates using baseline risk factors

Background:

Demographic and disease characteristics have been associated with the risk of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) exacerbations. Using previously collected multinational clinical trial data, we developed models that use baseline risk factors to predict an individual’s rate of moderate/severe exacerbations in the next year on various pharmacological treatments for COPD.

Methods:

Exacerbation data from 20,054 patients in the ETHOS, KRONOS, TELOS, SOPHOS, and PINNACLE-1, PINNACLE-2, and PINNACLE-4 studies were pooled. Machine learning was used to identify predictors of moderate/severe exacerbation rates. Important factors were selected for generalized linear modeling, further informed by backward variable selection. An independent test set was held back for validation.

Results:

Prior exacerbations, eosinophil count, forced expiratory volume in 1 s percent predicted, prior maintenance treatments, reliever medication use, sex, COPD Assessment Test score, smoking status, and region were significant predictors of exacerbation risk, with response to inhaled corticosteroids (ICSs) increasing with higher eosinophil counts, more prior exacerbations, or additional prior treatments. Model fit was similar in the training and test set. Prediction metrics were ~10% better in the full model than in a simplified model based only on eosinophil count, prior exacerbations, and ICS use.

Conclusion:

These models predicting rates of moderate/severe exacerbations can be applied to a broad range of patients with COPD in terms of airway obstruction, eosinophil counts, exacerbation history, symptoms, and treatment history. Understanding the relative and absolute risks related to these factors may be useful for clinicians in evaluating the benefit: risk ratio of various treatment decisions for individual patients.

Clinical trials registered with www.clinicaltrials.gov (NCT02465567, NCT02497001, NCT02766608, NCT02727660, NCT01854645, NCT01854658, NCT02343458, NCT03262012, NCT02536508, and NCT01970878)

Treatable Traits in COPD - A Proposed Approach

The well-recognized individual heterogeneity within COPD patients has led to a growing interest in greater personalization in the approach of these patients. Thus, the treatable traits strategy has been proposed as a further step towards precision medicine in the management of chronic airway disease, both in stable phase and acute exacerbations. The aim of this paper is to perform a critical review on the treatable traits strategy and propose a guide to approach COPD patients in the light of this new concept. An innovative stepwise approach is proposed - a multidisciplinary model based on two distinct phases, with the potential to be implemented in both primary care and hospital settings. The first phase is the initial and focused assessment of a selected subset of treatable traits, which should be addressed in all COPD patients in both settings (primary care and hospital). As some patients may present with advanced disease at diagnosis or may progress despite this initial treatment requiring a more specialized assessment, they should progress to a second phase, in which a broader approach is recommended. Beyond stable COPD, we explore how the treatable traits strategy may be applied to reduce the risk of future exacerbations and improve the management of COPD exacerbations. Since many treatable traits have already been related to exacerbation risk, the strategy proposed here represents an opportunity to be proactive. Although it still lacks prospective validation, we believe this is the way forward for the future of the COPD approach.

Continuity of Care Assessment Within a Vertically Integrated Care Management Organization Before and After COPD-Related Exacerbations

Background

There is currently little research describing patient experience and continuity of care immediately prior, during, and following an acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD). This analysis examined clinical characteristics, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD)‑related medication patterns and outpatient visits before and after an AECOPD.

Methods

This retrospective analysis used electronic health records, medical claims, and pharmacy dispensing data for patients within the Kaiser Permanente Northwest Health System. Patients with ≥1 AECOPD between January 1, 2015 and December 31, 2017 were identified. The most recent AECOPD was considered the index date. An AECOPD was defined as an inpatient hospitalization with a primary diagnosis of COPD, or respiratory failure with a secondary diagnosis of COPD, or an outpatient visit with a primary diagnosis of COPD and dispensing of respiratory-related antibiotics and/or oral corticosteroids ±5 days of the visit. Eligible patients were: ≥40 years old; ≥2 encounters within 12 months of each other or ≥1 hospitalization with primary or secondary COPD diagnosis, chronic bronchitis, or emphysema prior to index; and continuously enrolled ±90 days relative to index. COPD-related inhaled maintenance medication, rescue inhalers, oral corticosteroid use, and ambulatory visits were assessed 90-days pre- and post-index.

Results

There were 2829 patients included (mean [standard deviation] age: 69.0 [10.5] years) who had an AECOPD (7% severe; 93% moderate). The percentage of patients on inhaled maintenance therapy increased from 60.6% pre-AECOPD to 68.8% post-AECOPD and increased from 60.0% to 87.4% among patients who experienced a severe AECOPD. COPD-related ambulatory visits increased more than four-fold for primary care and more than doubled for pulmonologist visits in the post-AECOPD period.

Conclusion

The low proportion of patients observed with changes to controller and rescue medication (particularly following a moderate AECOPD), yet higher utilization of COPD-related ambulatory visits before and after an AECOPD suggests that there is opportunity to improve pharmacotherapy management.

COPD Exacerbation History and Impact on Future Exacerbations - 8-Year Retrospective Observational Database Cohort Study from Germany

Background

Recent studies evaluating the predictive value of different variables on future exacerbations suggest exacerbation history as the strongest predictor. We examined the effect of exacerbation history on subsequent events in a large sample population with over 250,000 COPD patients using up to 8 years of longitudinal healthcare data from Germany.

Methods

Patients 40 years or older with any COPD diagnosis in primary or secondary care were included from 2011 to 2017 (index period) from healthcare insurance claims (Germany; WIG2 research database), with 12 months before index date as baseline and at least 12-month follow-up. Exacerbations during baseline were defined as moderate (treatment with oral corticosteroids or antibiotics, J01AA, J01CA) or severe (emergency visit or hospitalization).

Results

Patients without (category A), with one moderate (category B), or with either one severe or several baseline exacerbations (category C) experienced an average of 0.9 (CI 0.9-0.9), 1.9 (CI 1.9-1.9), and 6.3 (CI 6.1-6.3) exacerbations during the first 3 years of follow-up, respectively. By 8 years, 87.0% (CI 86.6-87.4), 70.5% (CI 69.9-71.0) and 49.1% (CI 48.9-49.3) of category C, B and A patients had experienced a subsequent exacerbation.

Conclusion

Baseline exacerbations increased the likelihood of, and reduced time to subsequent exacerbations. Even patients without baseline exacerbations experienced exacerbations within three years, emphasizing the importance of adequate treatment in patients with less severe disease presentation as well.

The cost-saving switch from inhaled corticosteroid-containing treatments to dual bronchodilation: a two-country projection of epidemiological and economic burden in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

Purpose:

The Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) 2018 recommendations support maintenance treatment with long-acting bronchodilators in most symptomatic patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). While restricting the overuse of inhaled corticosteroids (ICS) may influence healthcare utilization required to treat inadvertent respiratory (exacerbations and pneumonia) and diabetes-related events, it may also change the total medication cost. This analysis was performed to estimate the 5-year budget impact of switching from ICS-containing treatment combinations to dual bronchodilation, in line with the recommendations.

Methods:

The model quantified the budget impact of treatment and healthcare resource utilization when COPD patients were anticipated to switch from ICS-containing treatments to dual bronchodilation. Three switch scenarios were calculated with increasing proportions of patients on dual long-acting bronchodilators, to the detriment of ICS-containing double and triple combinations. Clinical and cost input data were based on results from clinical trials and Greek and Portuguese healthcare cost databases.

Results:

Healthcare resource use to manage exacerbations, pneumonia and diabetes-related events were projected to increase between 2019 and 2023 in parallel with the growing COPD patient population and associated costs were estimated at 52–57% of the total disease cost in the Greek and Portuguese base case scenarios. Total cost savings between 21 and 112 million EUR were projected when the proportion of patients on double and triple ICS-containing treatments was gradually reduced to 50% in scenario A, 20% in scenario B and 7% in scenario C. Sensitivity analyses showed that none of the model assumptions had a major impact on the projected savings.

Conclusion:

The alignment of COPD treatment with current recommendations may bring clinical benefits to patients, without substantial cost increases and even cost savings for payers.

The reviews of this paper are available via the supplemental material section.

Using Computational Methods to Improve Integrated Disease Management for Asthma and Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease: Protocol for a Secondary Analysis

Background

Asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) impose a heavy burden on health care. Approximately one-fourth of patients with asthma and patients with COPD are prone to exacerbations, which can be greatly reduced by preventive care via integrated disease management that has a limited service capacity. To do this well, a predictive model for proneness to exacerbation is required, but no such model exists. It would be suboptimal to build such models using the current model building approach for asthma and COPD, which has 2 gaps due to rarely factoring in temporal features showing early health changes and general directions. First, existing models for other asthma and COPD outcomes rarely use more advanced temporal features, such as the slope of the number of days to albuterol refill, and are inaccurate. Second, existing models seldom show the reason a patient is deemed high risk and the potential interventions to reduce the risk, making already occupied clinicians expend more time on chart review and overlook suitable interventions. Regular automatic explanation methods cannot deal with temporal data and address this issue well.

Objective

To enable more patients with asthma and patients with COPD to obtain suitable and timely care to avoid exacerbations, we aim to implement comprehensible computational methods to accurately predict proneness to exacerbation and recommend customized interventions.

Methods

We will use temporal features to accurately predict proneness to exacerbation, automatically find modifiable temporal risk factors for every high-risk patient, and assess the impact of actionable warnings on clinicians’ decisions to use integrated disease management to prevent proneness to exacerbation.

Results

We have obtained most of the clinical and administrative data of patients with asthma from 3 prominent American health care systems. We are retrieving other clinical and administrative data, mostly of patients with COPD, needed for the study. We intend to complete the study in 6 years.

Conclusions

Our results will help make asthma and COPD care more proactive, effective, and efficient, improving outcomes and saving resources.

International Registered Report Identifier (IRRID)

PRR1-10.2196/27065

The five-repetition sit-to-stand test is a predictive factor of severe exacerbations in COPD

Background:

Although the six-minute-walk test (6MWT) has been used to predict chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) exacerbations, additional research is necessary to identify more rapid, simpler tests that are directly associated with exacerbations, such as the five-repetition sit-to-stand (5STS) test and 4-m gait speed (4MGS) test.

Aims:

To determine the ability of the 5STS and 4MGS tests in predicting severe exacerbations in stable COPD over the following year, and to assess the ability of the best prognostic test to identify patients at high risk of hospital admission correctly.

Methods:

This prospective study included 137 patients with stable COPD. Multiple logistic regression models were constructed to assess whether the 6MWT, 5STS, and 4MGS tests were associated with severe exacerbations in the year following the test. Receiver-operating characteristic curves and the area under the curve (AUC) were evaluated to determine the accuracy of each test for identifying patients with severe exacerbations.

Results:

Scores of <350 m for the 6WMT and ⩽2 for the 5STS test were associated with severe exacerbations in the model adjusted for age and the number of exacerbations in the previous year. The 5STS test and the 6MWT had very similar predictive and discriminative abilities. Odds ratios were 3.20 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.14–8.96) and 3.84 (95% CI 1.14–12.94) and AUCs were 0.793 (95% CI 0.704–0.882) and 0.783 (95% CI 0.686–0.879), respectively.

Conclusions:

The 5STS test predicted the risk of severe exacerbation within the following year among patients with COPD. The 5STS test could replace the 6MWT for identifying patients at high risk of hospital admission.

Clinical features of Japanese patients with exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

Background

Exacerbations are critical events in chronic pulmonary obstructive disease (COPD). The frequency of COPD exacerbations is associated with the prognosis, including mortality, but no useful biomarker has been established.

Methods

The present retrospective study investigated 481 COPD patients. Clinical features in the stable period were compared between patients who experienced severe exacerbation (n = 88, 18.3%) and those who never experienced severe exacerbation (n = 393, 81.7%). In the patients who experienced exacerbations, clinical features were also compared between frequent exacerbators (exacerbation rate ≥ 2 times/year, n = 27, 30.7%) and infrequent exacerbators (1 time/year, n = 61, 69.3%).

Results

Compared to COPD patients who never experienced exacerbations, body mass index (BMI), serum albumin, and pulmonary functions were significantly lower, and the cardiovascular disease comorbidity rate, COPD assessment test score, modified Medical Research Council dyspnea scale, and use of long-term oxygen therapy, long-acting β₂ adrenergic agonist therapy, inhaled corticosteroid therapy, and macrolide therapy were significantly higher in COPD patients with exacerbations (all p < 0.01). In patients who experienced exacerbations, frequent exacerbators had significantly lower % forced expiratory volume in 1.0 s and a higher risk of critical exacerbations, percentage of blood eosinophils, history of mechanical ventilation use, and use of long-term oxygen therapy and of macrolide therapy than infrequent exacerbators (all p < 0.01). On multivariate analysis, the percentage of blood eosinophils was the parameter most correlated with exacerbation frequency (β value [95% confidence interval] 1.45 [1.12–1.88], p < 0.01).

Conclusion

Blood eosinophil in the stable period is the factor most correlated with the frequency of severe exacerbations.

Trial registration: The patients in this study was registered retrospectively

Ambient air particulate matter (PM10) satellite monitoring and respiratory health effects assessment

PURPOSE

Air particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of 10 µm or less (PM₁₀) is one of the main causes of acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD). This study explored the relationship between PM₁₀ by remote sensing and AECOPD in Chaharmahal-o-Bakhtiari province from 2014 to2018.

METHOD

PM₁₀ concentrations were predicted and validated based on aerosol optical depth (AOD) from 161 images processed by MODIS sensor and ground air quality monitoring station data. Demographic information and spirometric indices of 2038 patients with AECOPD were collected and analyzed from the hospital during the studied periods. SPSS software was used to analyze the relationships between these two categories of information.

RESULTS

There was a significant negative relationship between PM10 and FVC, FVC%, FEV1, FEV1%, FEF25-75, FEV1/FVC, PEF, and FEF25FVC indices (p < 0.05). The results showed that over 2014-2018, the annual mean of PM10 concentrations varied from 35 to 52 µg/m3. The result of the regression model showed that the patient's age, body mass index (BMI), and PM₁₀ concentrations were the most affecting variables on the two important spirometric indices i.e., FVC% and FEV₁%. The PM₁₀ concentrations and number of AECOPD patients had a similar pattern during the studied period. The women group, age group above 74 years, normal BMI, and non-smoking patients showed the most sensitivity to the PM₁₀ concentrations.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings provide supplementary scientific information on PM₁₀ concentration related to the incidence of AECOPD and as a variable affecting the most important spirometry indicators by providing local decision-makers information needed to set a priority of air pollution control measures as well as health services.

Extrafine Beclometasone Dipropionate/Formoterol Fumarate vs Double Bronchodilation Therapy in Patients with COPD: A Historical Real-World Non-Inferiority Study

Purpose

This study aimed to evaluate the non-inferiority of initiating extrafine beclometasone dipropionate/formoterol fumarate (BDP/FF) versus double bronchodilation (long-acting beta-agonists [LABA]/long-acting muscarinic antagonists [LAMA]) among patients with a history of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) exacerbations.

Patients and Methods

A historical cohort study was conducted using data from the UK's Optimum Patient Care Research Database. Patients with COPD ≥40 years at diagnosis were included if they initiated extrafine BDP/FF or any LABA/LAMA double therapy as a step-up from no maintenance therapy or monotherapy with inhaled corticosteroids (ICS), LAMA, or LABA and a history of ≥2 moderate/severe exacerbations in the previous two years. The primary outcome was exacerbation rate from therapy initiation until a relevant therapy change or end of follow-up. Secondary outcomes included rate of acute respiratory events, acute oral corticosteroids (OCS) courses, and antibiotic prescriptions with lower respiratory indication, modified Medical Research Council score (mMRC) ≥2, and time to first pneumonia diagnosis. The non-inferiority boundary was set at a relative difference of 15% on the ratio scale. Five potential treatment effect modifiers were investigated.

Results

A total of 1735 patients initiated extrafine BDP/FF and 2450 patients initiated LABA/LAMA. The mean age was 70 years, 51% were male, 41% current smokers, and 85% had FEV₁ <80% predicted. Extrafine BDP/FF showed non-inferiority to LABA/LAMA for rate of exacerbations (incidence rate ratio [IRR] = 1.01 [95% CI 0.94-1.09]), acute respiratory events (IRR = 0.98 [0.92-1.04]), acute OCS courses (IRR = 1.01 [0.91-1.11]), and antibiotic prescriptions (IRR = 0.99 [0.90-1.09]), but not for mMRC (OR = 0.93 [0.69-1.27]) or risk of pneumonia (HR = 0.50 [0.14-1.73]). None of the a priori defined effect modifier candidates affected the comparative effectiveness.

Conclusion

This study found that stepping up to extrafine BDP/FF from no maintenance or monotherapy was not inferior to stepping up to double bronchodilation therapy in patients with a history of exacerbations.

Management of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: A review focusing on exacerbations

Purpose

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a significant cause of morbidity and mortality in the United States. Exacerbations— acute worsening of COPD symptoms—can be mild to severe in nature. Increased healthcare resource use is common among patients with frequent exacerbations, and exacerbations are a major cause of the high 30-day hospital readmission rates associated with COPD.

Summary

This review provides a concise overview of the literature regarding the impact of COPD exacerbations on both the patient and the healthcare system, the recommendations for pharmacologic management of COPD, and the strategies employed to improve patient care and reduce hospitalizations and readmissions. COPD exacerbations significantly impact patients’ health-related quality of life and disease progression; healthcare costs associated with severe exacerbation-related hospitalization range from $7,000 to $39,200. Timely and appropriate maintenance pharmacotherapy, particularly dual bronchodilators for maximizing bronchodilation, can significantly reduce exacerbations in patients with COPD. Additionally, multidisciplinary disease-management programs include pulmonary rehabilitation, follow-up appointments, aftercare, inhaler training, and patient education that can reduce hospitalizations and readmissions for patients with COPD.

Conclusion

Maximizing bronchodilation by the appropriate use of maintenance therapy, together with multidisciplinary disease-management and patient education programs, offers opportunities to reduce exacerbations, hospitalizations, and readmissions for patients with COPD.

Low-dose oral theophylline combined with inhaled corticosteroids for people with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and high risk of exacerbations: a RCT

BACKGROUND

Despite widespread use of therapies such as inhaled corticosteroids (ICSs), people with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) continue to suffer, have reduced life expectancy and utilise considerable NHS resources. Laboratory investigations have demonstrated that at low plasma concentrations (1-5 mg/l) theophylline markedly enhances the anti-inflammatory effects of corticosteroids in COPD.

OBJECTIVE

To determine the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of adding low-dose theophylline to a drug regimen containing ICSs in people with COPD at high risk of exacerbation.

DESIGN

A multicentre, pragmatic, double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled clinical trial.

SETTING

The trial was conducted in 121 UK primary and secondary care sites.

PARTICIPANTS

People with COPD [i.e. who have a forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV₁)/forced vital capacity (FVC) of < 0.7] currently on a drug regimen including ICSs with a history of two or more exacerbations treated with antibiotics and/or oral corticosteroids (OCSs) in the previous year.

INTERVENTIONS

Participants were randomised (1 : 1) to receive either low-dose theophylline or placebo for 1 year. The dose of theophylline (200 mg once or twice a day) was determined by ideal body weight and smoking status.

PRIMARY OUTCOME

The number of participant-reported exacerbations in the 1-year treatment period that were treated with antibiotics and/or OCSs.

RESULTS

A total of 1578 people were randomised (60% from primary care): 791 to theophylline and 787 to placebo. There were 11 post-randomisation exclusions. Trial medication was prescribed to 1567 participants: 788 in the theophylline arm and 779 in the placebo arm. Participants in the trial arms were well balanced in terms of characteristics. The mean age was 68.4 [standard deviation (SD) 8.4] years, 54% were male, 32% smoked and mean FEV₁ was 51.7% (SD 20.0%) predicted. Primary outcome data were available for 98% of participants: 772 in the theophylline arm and 764 in the placebo arm. There were 1489 person-years of follow-up data. The mean number of exacerbations was 2.24 (SD 1.99) for participants allocated to theophylline and 2.23 (SD 1.97) for participants allocated to placebo [adjusted incidence rate ratio (IRR) 0.99, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.91 to 1.08]. Low-dose theophylline had no significant effects on lung function (i.e. FEV₁), incidence of pneumonia, mortality, breathlessness or measures of quality of life or disease impact. Hospital admissions due to COPD exacerbation were less frequent with low-dose theophylline (adjusted IRR 0.72, 95% CI 0.55 to 0.94). However, 39 of the 51 excess hospital admissions in the placebo group were accounted for by 10 participants having three or more exacerbations. There were no differences in the reporting of theophylline side effects between the theophylline and placebo arms.

LIMITATIONS

A higher than expected percentage of participants (26%) ceased trial medication; this was balanced between the theophylline and placebo arms and mitigated by over-recruitment (n = 154 additional participants were recruited) and the high rate of follow-up. The limitation of not using documented exacerbations is addressed by evidence that patient recall is highly reliable and the results of a small within-trial validation study.

CONCLUSION

For people with COPD at high risk of exacerbation, the addition of low-dose oral theophylline to a drug regimen that includes ICSs confers no overall clinical or health economic benefit. This result was evident from the intention-to-treat and per-protocol analyses.

FUTURE WORK

To promote consideration of the findings of this trial in national and international COPD guidelines.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN27066620.

FUNDING

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 23, No. 37. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Modelling the Cost-Effectiveness of Indacaterol/Glycopyrronium versus Salmeterol/Fluticasone Using a Novel Markov Exacerbation-Based Approach

Purpose

Exacerbations drive outcomes and costs in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). While patient-level (micro) simulation cost-effectiveness models have been developed that include exacerbations, such models are complex. We developed a novel, exacerbation-based model to assess the cost-effectiveness of indacaterol/glycopyrronium (IND/GLY) versus salmeterol/fluticasone (SFC) in COPD, using a Markov structure as a simplification of a previously validated microsimulation model.

Methods

The Markov model included three health states: infrequent or frequent exacerbator (IE or FE; ≤1 or ≥2 moderate/severe exacerbations in prior 12 months, respectively), or death. The model used data from the FLAME study and was run over a 10-year horizon. Cycle length was 1 year, after which patients remained in the same health state or transitioned to another. Analysis was conducted from a Swedish payer's perspective (Swedish healthcare costs, converted into Euros), with incremental costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) calculated (discounted 3% annually).

Results

At all post-baseline timepoints, IND/GLY was associated with more patients in the IE health state and fewer patients in the FE and dead states relative to SFC. Over a 10-year period, IND/GLY was associated with a cost saving of €1,887/patient, an incremental benefit of 0.142 QALYs, and an addition of 0.057 life-years, compared with SFC.

Conclusion

This Markov model represents a novel cost-effectiveness analysis for COPD, with simpler methodology than prior microsimulation models, while retaining exacerbations as drivers of disease progression. In patients with COPD with a history of exacerbations in the previous year, IND/GLY is a cost-effective treatment option compared with SFC.

Defining severe obstructive lung disease in the biologic era: an endotype-based approach

Severe obstructive lung disease, which encompasses asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) or features of both, remains a considerable global health problem and burden on healthcare resources. However, the clinical definitions of severe asthma and COPD do not reflect the heterogeneity within these diagnoses or the potential for overlap between them, which may lead to inappropriate treatment decisions. Furthermore, most studies exclude patients with diagnoses of both asthma and COPD. Clinical definitions can influence clinical trial design and are both influenced by, and influence, regulatory indications and treatment recommendations. Therefore, to ensure its relevance in the era of targeted biologic therapies, the definition of severe obstructive lung disease must be updated so that it includes all patients who could benefit from novel treatments and for whom associated costs are justified. Here, we review evolving clinical definitions of severe obstructive lung disease and evaluate how these have influenced trial design by summarising eligibility criteria and primary outcomes of phase III randomised controlled trials of biologic therapies. Based on our findings, we discuss the advantages of a phenotype- and endotype-based approach to select appropriate populations for future trials that may influence regulatory approvals and clinical practice, allowing targeted biologic therapies to benefit a greater proportion and range of patients. This calls for co-ordinated efforts between investigators, pharmaceutical developers and regulators to ensure biologic therapies reach their full potential in the management of severe obstructive lung disease.

[Eosinophilic inflammation in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease]

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a heterogeneous disease that combines various clinical manifestations and pathophysiological mechanisms. It underlies the separation of patients with COPD by phenotypes, endotypes and a personalized therapy of this disease. The implementation of this approach is possible only with the use of appropriate biomarkers. One of the most important biomarkers of COPD is eosinophilia of blood and/or sputum, which is considered as a predictor of frequent exacerbations and the effectiveness of inhaled glucocorticosteroids in patients with COPD. The literature discusses the impact of eosinophilic inflammation on the prognosis, clinical and functional parameters in COPD, and the role of the targeted therapy in the treatment of eosinophilic COPD.

Prognostic models for outcome prediction in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: systematic review and critical appraisal

OBJECTIVE

To map and assess prognostic models for outcome prediction in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD).

DESIGN

Systematic review.

DATA SOURCES

PubMed until November 2018 and hand searched references from eligible articles.

ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA FOR STUDY SELECTION

Studies developing, validating, or updating a prediction model in COPD patients and focusing on any potential clinical outcome.

RESULTS

The systematic search yielded 228 eligible articles, describing the development of 408 prognostic models, the external validation of 38 models, and the validation of 20 prognostic models derived for diseases other than COPD. The 408 prognostic models were developed in three clinical settings: outpatients (n=239; 59%), patients admitted to hospital (n=155; 38%), and patients attending the emergency department (n=14; 3%). Among the 408 prognostic models, the most prevalent endpoints were mortality (n=209; 51%), risk for acute exacerbation of COPD (n=42; 10%), and risk for readmission after the index hospital admission (n=36; 9%). Overall, the most commonly used predictors were age (n=166; 41%), forced expiratory volume in one second (n=85; 21%), sex (n=74; 18%), body mass index (n=66; 16%), and smoking (n=65; 16%). Of the 408 prognostic models, 100 (25%) were internally validated and 91 (23%) examined the calibration of the developed model. For 286 (70%) models a model presentation was not available, and only 56 (14%) models were presented through the full equation. Model discrimination using the C statistic was available for 311 (76%) models. 38 models were externally validated, but in only 12 of these was the validation performed by a fully independent team. Only seven prognostic models with an overall low risk of bias according to PROBAST were identified. These models were ADO, B-AE-D, B-AE-D-C, extended ADO, updated ADO, updated BODE, and a model developed by Bertens et al. A meta-analysis of C statistics was performed for 12 prognostic models, and the summary estimates ranged from 0.611 to 0.769.

CONCLUSIONS

This study constitutes a detailed mapping and assessment of the prognostic models for outcome prediction in COPD patients. The findings indicate several methodological pitfalls in their development and a low rate of external validation. Future research should focus on the improvement of existing models through update and external validation, as well as the assessment of the safety, clinical effectiveness, and cost effectiveness of the application of these prognostic models in clinical practice through impact studies.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION

PROSPERO CRD42017069247.

Association of elevated fractional exhaled nitric oxide concentration and blood eosinophil count with severe asthma exacerbations

Background

Blood eosinophil count (BEC) and fractional exhaled nitric oxide (FeNO) concentration are established biomarkers in asthma, associated particularly with the risk of exacerbations. We evaluated the relationship of BEC and FeNO as complementary and independent biomarkers of severe asthma exacerbations.

Methods

This observational study included data from the Optimum Patient Care Research Database. Asthma patients (18–80 years) with valid continuous data for 1 year before FeNO reading, ≥ 1 inhaled corticosteroid prescription, and BEC recorded ≤ 5 years before FeNO reading were separated into cohorts. Categorisation 1 was based on the American Thoracic Society criteria for elevated FeNO concentration (high: ≥ 50 ppb; non-high: < 25 ppb) and BEC (high: ≥ 0.300 × 10⁹ cells/L; non-high: < 0.300 × 10⁹ cells/L). Categorisation 2 (FeNO concentration, high: ≥ 35 ppb; non-high: < 35 ppb) was based on prior research. Reference groups included patients with neither biomarker raised.

Results

In categorisation 1, patients with either high FeNO or high BEC (n = 200) had a numerically greater exacerbation rate (unadjusted rate ratio, 1.31 [95% confidence interval: 0.97, 1.76]) compared with patients in the reference group. Combination of high FeNO and high BEC (n = 27) resulted in a significantly greater exacerbation rate (3.67 [1.49, 9.04]). Similarly, for categorisation 2, when both biomarkers were raised (n = 53), a significantly greater exacerbation rate was observed (1.72 [1.00, 2.93]).

Conclusion

The combination of high FeNO and high BEC was associated with significantly increased severe exacerbation rates in the year preceding FeNO reading, suggesting that combining FeNO and BEC measurements in primary care may identify asthma patients at risk of exacerbations.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s13601-019-0282-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

MetaPred: Meta-Learning for Clinical Risk Prediction with Limited Patient Electronic Health Records

In recent years, large amounts of health data, such as patient Electronic Health Records (EHR), are becoming readily available. This provides an unprecedented opportunity for knowledge discovery and data mining algorithms to dig insights from them, which can, later on, be helpful to the improvement of the quality of care delivery. Predictive modeling of clinical risks, including in-hospital mortality, hospital readmission, chronic disease onset, condition exacerbation, etc., from patient EHR, is one of the health data analytic problems that attract lots of the interests. The reason is not only because the problem is important in clinical settings, but also is challenging when working with EHR such as sparsity, irregularity, temporality, etc. Different from applications in other domains such as computer vision and natural language processing, the data samples in medicine (patients) are relatively limited, which creates lots of troubles for building effective predictive models, especially for complicated ones such as deep learning. In this paper, we propose MetaPred, a meta-learning framework for clinical risk prediction from longitudinal patient EHR. In particular, in order to predict the target risk with limited data samples, we train a meta-learner from a set of related risk prediction tasks which learns how a good predictor is trained. The meta-learned can then be directly used in target risk prediction, and the limited available samples in the target domain can be used for further fine-tuning the model performance. The effectiveness of MetaPred is tested on a real patient EHR repository from Oregon Health & Science University. We are able to demonstrate that with Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) and Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) as base predictors, MetaPred can achieve much better performance for predicting target risk with low resources comparing with the predictor trained on the limited samples available for this risk alone.

Factors associated with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease exacerbation, based on big data analysis

Preventing exacerbation in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients is crucial, but requires identification of the exacerbating factors. To date, no integrated analysis of patient-derived and external factors has been reported. To identify factors associated with COPD exacerbation, we collected data, including smoking status, lung function, and COPD assessment test scores, from 594 COPD patients in the Korean COPD subgroup study (KOCOSS), and merged these data with patients' Korean Health Insurance Review and Assessment Service data for 2007-2012. We also collected primary weather variables, including levels of particulate matter <10 microns in diameter, daily minimum ambient temperature, as well as respiratory virus activities, and the logs of web queries on COPD-related issues. We then assessed the associations between these patient-derived and external factors and COPD exacerbations. Univariate analysis showed that patient factors, air pollution, various types of viruses, temperature, and the number of COPD-related web queries were associated with COPD exacerbation. Multivariate analysis revealed that the number of exacerbations in the preceding year, female sex, COPD grade, and influenza virus detection rate, and lowest temperature showed significant association with exacerbation. Our findings may help COPD patients predict when exacerbations are likely, and provide intervention as early as possible.

Clinical burden of illness among patients with severe eosinophilic COPD

Background: There are currently limited real-world data on the clinical burden of illness in patients with COPD who continue to exacerbate despite receiving triple therapy. The aim of this study was to compare the burden of COPD in patients with and without a phenotype characterized by a high blood eosinophil count and high risk of exacerbations while receiving triple therapy.

Methods: This retrospective cohort study (GSK ID: 207323/PRJ2647) used UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink records linked with Hospital Episode Statistics. Eligible patients had a COPD medical diagnosis code recorded between January 1, 2004 and December 31, 2014, and a blood eosinophil count recorded on/after that date. Patients were followed from index date (first qualifying blood eosinophil count) until December 31, 2015. The study phenotype was defined as ≥2 moderate/≥1 severe acute exacerbation of COPD (AECOPD) in the year prior to the index date, current use of multiple-inhaler triple therapy (MITT), and blood eosinophil count ≥150 cells/µL on the index date. Outcomes measured during follow-up included moderate/severe AECOPDs, severe AECOPDs, all-cause mortality, primary care (GP) clinical consultations, and non-AECOPD-related unscheduled hospitalizations.

Results: Of 46,814 patients eligible for inclusion, 2512 (5.4%) met the definition of the study phenotype. Adjusted rate ratios (95% CI) of moderate/severe AECOPDs and all-cause mortality in patients with the study phenotype versus those without were 2.32 (2.22, 2.43) and 1.26 (1.16, 1.37), respectively. For GP visits and non-AECOPD-related unscheduled hospitalizations, adjusted rate ratios (95% CI), in patients with the study phenotype versus those without, were 1.09 (1.05, 1.12) and 1.31 (1.18, 1.46), respectively.

Conclusion: Patients with COPD and raised blood eosinophil counts who continue to exacerbate despite MITT represent a distinct subgroup who experience substantial clinical burden and account for high healthcare expenditure. There is a need for more effective management and therapeutic options for these patients.

Immunization status in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: A multicenter study from Turkey

OBJECTIVE:

The purpose of this study is to detect the prevalence and the factors associated with influenza and pneumococcal vaccination and outcomes of vaccination during 2013–2014 season in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in Turkey.

METHODS:

This was a multicenter retrospective cohort study performed in 53 different centers in Turkey.

RESULTS:

During the study period, 4968 patients were included. COPD was staged as GOLD 1-2-3-4 in 9.0%, 42.8%, 35.0%, and 13.2% of the patients, respectively. Influenza vaccination rate in the previous year was 37.9%; and pneumococcus vaccination rate, at least once during in a life time, was 13.3%. Patients with older age, higher level of education, more severe COPD, and comorbidities, ex-smokers, and patients residing in urban areas had higher rates of influenza vaccination. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that advanced age, higher education levels, presence of comorbidities, higher COPD stages, and exacerbation rates were associated with both influenza and pneumococcal vaccination. The number of annual physician/outpatient visits and hospitalizations due to COPD exacerbation was 2.73 ± 2.85 and 0.92 ± 1.58 per year, respectively. Patients with older age, lower education levels, more severe COPD, comorbid diseases, and lower body mass index and patients who are male and are residing in rural areas and vaccinated for influenza had significantly higher rates of COPD exacerbation.

CONCLUSIONS:

The rates of influenza and pneumococcal vaccination in COPD patients were quite low, and the number of annual physician/outpatient visits and hospitalizations due to COPD exacerbation was high in Turkey. Advanced age, higher education levels, comorbidities, and higher COPD stages were associated with both influenza and pneumococcal vaccination.

Difference in systemic inflammation and predictors of acute exacerbation between smoking-associated COPD and tuberculosis-associated COPD

Purpose

Tuberculosis-associated COPD (T-COPD) has clinical characteristics similar to those of smoking-associated COPD (S-COPD), such as dyspnea, sputum production, and acute exacerbation (AE). However, the degree of systemic inflammation and prognosis might be different because of difference in the pathophysiology. The aim of this study was to compare the lung function, systemic inflammatory markers, and their impacts on AE in patients with S-COPD and T-COPD.

Patients and methods

We performed a multicenter cross-sectional cohort study. We evaluated clinical characteristics, pulmonary function tests, levels of inflammatory markers, including C-reactive protein (CRP), erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR), and IL-6, and the association of these markers with AE in patients with S-COPD and T-COPD.

Results

Patients with T-COPD included more women and had lesser smoking history and higher St George Respiratory Questionnaire score than did patients with S-COPD. Although the FEV₁ of both groups was similar, FVC, vital capacity, total lung capacity, and functional residual capacity were lower in patients with T-COPD than in those with S-COPD. CRP, ESR, and IL-6 levels were significantly higher in patients with T-COPD compared to patients with S-COPD. According to a multivariate logistic regression analysis, FEV₁ was a significant factor predicting AE in S-COPD, and IL-6 was a significant factor predicting AE in T-COPD. IL-6 level greater than 2.04 pg/mL was a cutoff for predicting exacerbation of T-COPD (sensitivity 84.8%, specificity 59.3%, P<0.001).

Conclusion

Patients with T-COPD have higher levels of inflammatory markers, and IL-6 has a predictive value for AE in T-COPD.

Rural Residence and Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Exacerbations. Analysis of the SPIROMICS Cohort

Rationale: Rural residence is associated with poor outcomes in several chronic diseases. The association between rural residence and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) exacerbations remains unclear.Objectives: In this work, we sought to determine the independent association between rural residence and COPD-related outcomes, including COPD exacerbations, airflow obstruction, and symptom burden.Methods: A total of 1,684 SPIROMICS (Subpopulations and Intermediate Outcome Measures in COPD Study) participants with forced expiratory volume in 1 second/forced vital capacity < 0.70 had geocoding-defined rural-urban residence status determined (N = 204 rural and N = 1,480 urban). Univariate and multivariate logistic and negative binomial regressions were performed to assess the independent association between rurality and COPD outcomes, including exacerbations, lung function, and symptom burden. The primary exposure of interest was rural residence, determined by geocoding of the home address to the block level at the time of study enrollment. Additional covariates of interest included demographic and clinical characteristics, occupation, and occupational exposures. The primary outcome measures were exacerbations determined over a 1-year course after enrollment by quarterly telephone calls and at an annual research clinic visit. The odds ratio (OR) and incidence rate ratio (IRR) of exacerbations that required treatment with medications, including steroids or antibiotics (total exacerbations), and exacerbations leading to hospitalization (severe exacerbations) were determined after adjusting for relevant covariates.Results: Rural residence was independently associated with a 70% increase in the odds of total exacerbations (OR, 1.70 [95% confidence interval (CI), 1.13-2.56]; P = 0.012) and a 46% higher incidence rate of total exacerbations (IRR 1.46 [95% CI, 1.02-2.10]; P = 0.039). There was no association between rural residence and severe exacerbations. Agricultural occupation was independently associated with increased odds and incidence of total and severe exacerbations. Inclusion of agricultural occupation in the analysis attenuated the association between rural residence and the odds and incidence rate of total exacerbations (OR, 1.52 [95% CI, 1.00-2.32]; P = 0.05 and IRR 1.39 [95% CI, 0.97-1.99]; P = 0.07). There was no difference in symptoms or airflow obstruction between rural and urban participants.Conclusions: Rural residence is independently associated with increased odds and incidence of total, but not severe, COPD exacerbations. These associations are not fully explained by agriculture-related exposures, highlighting the need for future research into potential mechanisms of the increased risk of COPD exacerbations in the rural population.

Cost-effectiveness of indacaterol/glycopyrronium in comparison with salmeterol/fluticasone combination for patients with moderate-to-severe chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: a LANTERN population analysis from Singapore

INTRODUCTION

In light of the growing evidence base for better clinical results with the use of the dual bronchodilator indacaterol/glycopyrronium (IND/GLY) over inhaled corticosteroid-containing salmeterol/fluticasone combination (SFC), this study aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of IND/GLY over SFC in patients with moderate-to-severe chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) who are at low risk of exacerbations, in the Singapore healthcare setting.

METHODS

A previously published patient-level simulation model was adapted for use in Singapore by applying local unit costs. The model was populated with clinical data from the LANTERN and ECLIPSE studies. Both costs and health outcomes were predicted for the lifetime horizon from a payer's perspective and were discounted at 3% per annum. Costs were expressed in 2015 USD exchange rates. Uncertainty was assessed through probabilistic sensitivity analysis.

RESULTS

Compared to SFC, use of IND/GLY increased mean life expectancy by 0.316 years and mean quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) by 0.246 years, and decreased mean total treatment costs (drug costs and management of associated events) by USD 1,474 over the entire lifetime horizon. IND/GLY was considered to be 100% cost-effective at a threshold of 1 × gross domestic product per capita. The cost-effectiveness acceptability curve showed that IND/GLY was 100% cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay threshold of USD 0 (additional cost) when compared to SFC.

CONCLUSION

IND/GLY was estimated to be highly cost-effective compared to SFC in patients with moderate-to-severe COPD who are not at high risk of exacerbations in the Singapore healthcare setting.

Factors influencing treatment escalation from long-acting muscarinic antagonist monotherapy to triple therapy in patients with COPD: a retrospective THIN-database analysis

Purpose

Inappropriate use of an inhaled corticosteroid (ICS) for COPD has clinical and economic disadvantages. This retrospective analysis of The UK Health Improvement Network (THIN) database identified factors influencing treatment escalation (step-up) from a long-acting muscarinic antagonist (LAMA) to triple therapy (LAMA + long-acting β-agonist-ICS). Secondary objectives included time to step up from first LAMA prescription, Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) grouping (2011/2013, 2017), and Medical Research Council (MRC) grade prior to treatment escalation.

Materials and methods

Data were included from 14,866 people ≥35 years old with a COPD diagnosis (June 1, 2010–May 10, 2015) and initiated on LAMA monotherapy. The most commonly used LAMA at baseline was tiotropium (92%).

Results

Multivariate analysis (10,492 patients) revealed that COPD exacerbations, lower forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV₁), “asthma”, MRC grade, proactive and reactive COPD primary care, elective secondary-care contact, cough, and number of short-acting bronchodilator prescriptions were positively associated with treatment escalation (P<0.05). Being older, a current/ex-smoker, or having increased sputum symptom codes were negatively associated with treatment escalation (P<0.05). Median MRC score was 2 at baseline and 3 prior to treatment escalation. Using the last MRC reading and exacerbation history in the year prior to escalation, GOLD 2017 groupings were A 27.4%, B 37.3%, C 15.3%, and D 20%. In patients with available FEV₁ measures, exacerbations, and MRC code (n=1,064), GOLD 2011/2013 groupings were A 20.4%, B 19.2%, C 24.8%, and D 35.6%.

Conclusion

While the presence of COPD exacerbations seems to be the main driver for treatment escalation, according to the 2017 GOLD strategy many patients appear to be overtreated, as they would not be recommended for treatment escalation. Reviewing patients’ treatment in the light of the new GOLD strategy has the potential to reduce inappropriate use of triple therapy.

The association between previous and future severe exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: Updating the literature using robust statistical methodology

Background

There is minimal evidence on the extent to which the occurrence of a severe acute exacerbation of COPD that results in hospitalization affects the subsequent disease course. Previous studies on this topic did not generate causally-interpretable estimates. Our aim was to use corrected methodology to update previously reported estimates of the associations between previous and future exacerbations in these patients.

Methods

Using administrative health data in British Columbia, Canada (1997–2012), we constructed a cohort of patients with at least one severe exacerbation, defined as an episode of inpatient care with the main diagnosis of COPD based on international classification of diseases (ICD) codes. We applied a random-effects 'joint frailty' survival model that is particularly developed for the analysis of recurrent events in the presence of competing risk of death and heterogeneity among individuals in their rate of events. Previous severe exacerbations entered the model as dummy-coded time-dependent covariates, and the model was adjusted for several observable patient and disease characteristics.

Results

35,994 individuals (mean age at baseline 73.7, 49.8% female, average follow-up 3.21 years) contributed 34,271 severe exacerbations during follow-up. The first event was associated with a hazard ratio (HR) of 1.75 (95%CI 1.69–1.82) for the risk of future severe exacerbations. This risk decreased to HR = 1.36 (95%CI 1.30–1.42) for the second event and to 1.18 (95%CI 1.12–1.25) for the third event. The first two severe exacerbations that occurred during follow-up were also significantly associated with increased risk of all-cause mortality. There was substantial heterogeneity in the individual-specific rate of severe exacerbations. Even after adjusting for observable characteristics, individuals in the 97.5th percentile of exacerbation rate had 5.6 times higher rate of severe exacerbations than those in the 2.5th percentile.

Conclusions

Using robust statistical methodology that controlled for heterogeneity in exacerbation rates among individuals, we demonstrated potential causal associations among past and future severe exacerbations, albeit the magnitude of association was noticeably lower than previously reported. The prevention of severe exacerbations has the potential to modify the disease trajectory.

A machine learning approach to triaging patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

COPD patients are burdened with a daily risk of acute exacerbation and loss of control, which could be mitigated by effective, on-demand decision support tools. In this study, we present a machine learning-based strategy for early detection of exacerbations and subsequent triage. Our application uses physician opinion in a statistically and clinically comprehensive set of patient cases to train a supervised prediction algorithm. The accuracy of the model is assessed against a panel of physicians each triaging identical cases in a representative patient validation set. Our results show that algorithm accuracy and safety indicators surpass all individual pulmonologists in both identifying exacerbations and predicting the consensus triage in a 101 case validation set. The algorithm is also the top performer in sensitivity, specificity, and ppv when predicting a patient's need for emergency care.

Prediction models for exacerbations in different COPD patient populations: comparing results of five large data sources

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Exacerbations are important outcomes in COPD both from a clinical and an economic perspective. Most studies investigating predictors of exacerbations were performed in COPD patients participating in pharmacological clinical trials who usually have moderate to severe airflow obstruction. This study was aimed to investigate whether predictors of COPD exacerbations depend on the COPD population studied.

METHODS

A network of COPD health economic modelers used data from five COPD data sources - two population-based studies (COPDGene® and The Obstructive Lung Disease in Norrbotten), one primary care study (RECODE), and two studies in secondary care (Evaluation of COPD Longitudinally to Identify Predictive Surrogate Endpoint and UPLIFT) - to estimate and validate several prediction models for total and severe exacerbations (= hospitalization). The models differed in terms of predictors (depending on availability) and type of model.

RESULTS

FEV1% predicted and previous exacerbations were significant predictors of total exacerbations in all five data sources. Disease-specific quality of life and gender were predictors in four out of four and three out of five data sources, respectively. Age was significant only in the two studies including secondary care patients. Other significant predictors of total exacerbations available in one database were: presence of cough and wheeze, pack-years, 6-min walking distance, inhaled corticosteroid use, and oxygen saturation. Predictors of severe exacerbations were in general the same as for total exacerbations, but in addition low body mass index, cardiovascular disease, and emphysema were significant predictors of hospitalization for an exacerbation in secondary care patients.

CONCLUSIONS

FEV1% predicted, previous exacerbations, and disease-specific quality of life were predictors of exacerbations in patients regardless of their COPD severity, while age, low body mass index, cardiovascular disease, and emphysema seem to be predictors in secondary care patients only.

Clinical characteristics of chronic bronchitic, emphysematous and ACOS phenotypes in COPD patients with frequent exacerbations

Purpose

Chronic bronchitis (CB), emphysematous (EM) and asthma–chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) overlap syndrome (ACOS) phenotypes in COPD are well recognized. This study aimed to investigate distinguishing characteristics of these phenotypes in COPD patients with frequent exacerbations (FE).

Patients and methods

A retrospective study was carried out. COPD patients with acute exacerbations were consecutively reviewed from November 2015 to October 2016. Patients were divided into FE and infrequent exacerbations (iFE) subgroups.

Results

A total of 142 eligible COPD subjects were reviewed. In the CB phenotype subgroup, age, body mass index, forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV₁) % predicted, COPD assessment test (CAT), modified Medical Research Council breathlessness measurement (mMRC) dyspnea scale, emphysema scores and arterial carbon dioxide pressure (PaCO₂) were significantly different in subjects with FE when compared to those in subjects with iFE of CB. In the EM phenotype subgroup, age, CAT, mMRC scores and history of COPD were different in subjects with FE when compared to those in CB subjects with iFE. Multivariate analysis indicated that FEV₁% predicted (odds ratio [OR] =0.90, P=0.04) and PaCO₂ (OR =1.22, P=0.02) were independent risk factors for FE in COPD with CB phenotype, and CAT (OR =2.601, P=0.001) was the independent risk factor for FE in COPD with EM phenotype. No significant differences in characteristics were observed in ACOS phenotype subgroups with FE or iFE.

Conclusion

In CB or EM phenotypes, COPD patients with FE present several differential clinical characteristics compared to patients with iFE, while the characteristics of ACOS phenotype in patients with FE need more investigation.

A prospective, observational cohort study of the seasonal dynamics of airway pathogens in the aetiology of exacerbations in COPD

BACKGROUND

The aetiology of acute exacerbations of COPD (AECOPD) is incompletely understood. Understanding the relationship between chronic bacterial airway infection and viral exposure may explain the incidence and seasonality of these events.

METHODS

In this prospective, observational cohort study (NCT01360398), patients with COPD aged 40-85 years underwent sputum sampling monthly and at exacerbation for detection of bacteria and viruses. Results are presented for subjects in the full cohort, followed for 1 year. Interactions between exacerbation occurrence and pathogens were investigated by generalised estimating equation and stratified conditional logistic regression analyses.

FINDINGS

The mean exacerbation rate per patient-year was 3.04 (95% CI 2.63 to 3.50). At AECOPD, the most common bacterial species were non-typeable Haemophilus influenzae (NTHi) and Moraxella catarrhalis, and the most common virus was rhinovirus. Logistic regression analyses (culture bacterial detection) showed significant OR for AECOPD occurrence when M. catarrhalis was detected regardless of season (5.09 (95% CI 2.76 to 9.41)). When NTHi was detected, the increased risk of exacerbation was greater in high season (October-March, OR 3.04 (1.80 to 5.13)) than low season (OR 1.22 (0.68 to 2.22)). Bacterial and viral coinfection was more frequent at exacerbation (24.9%) than stable state (8.6%). A significant interaction was detected between NTHi and rhinovirus presence and AECOPD risk (OR 5.18 (1.92 to 13.99); p=0.031).

CONCLUSIONS

AECOPD aetiology varies with season. Rises in incidence in winter may be driven by increased pathogen presence as well as an interaction between NTHi airway infection and effects of viral infection.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

Results, NCT01360398.

Use of electronic medical records and biomarkers to manage risk and resource efficiencies

The migration from paper to electronic medical records (EMRs) was motivated by the administrative need to record, retrieve and process increasing amounts of clinical data in the 1980s. In the intervening period, there has been growing recognition of the potential of such records for achieving care efficiencies, informing clinical decision making and real-life research. EMRs can be used to characterise patient groups, management approaches and differential outcomes. Characterisation can also help with identification of potential biomarkers for future risk determination and likely treatment response. The future heralds even greater opportunities through integration of clinical records and a range of technology-based solutions within a more complete electronic health record (EHR). Through application of algorithms based on identified risk predictors and disease determinants, clinical records could also be used to enable risk stratification of patients to optimise targeted interventions, conserving resources to achieve individual patient and system-wide benefit. In this review, we reflect on the evolution of the EMR and EHR and discuss current and emerging opportunities, particularly with respect to biomarkers and targeting of innovative biologic interventions. We also consider some of the critical issues associated with realising the potential of the EHR as a clinical aid and research tool in an age of emerging technologies.​​​​.

Use of concomitant inhaled corticosteroids: pooled data from two phase III studies of aclidinium plus formoterol in COPD

Bronchodilator therapy is the backbone of the management of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. In some patients, inhaled corticosteroids can be prescribed in combination with bronchodilators. Through a subgroup analysis of pooled data from two large phase III clinical trials of bronchodilator therapy according to concomitant inhaled corticosteroid use (user vs. non-user), we sought to evaluate the clinical benefit of adding inhaled corticosteroids to dual bronchodilator therapy in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. The primary focus of this analysis of pooled data from the phase III ACLIFORM and AUGMENT studies was to evaluate the efficacy of aclidinium/formoterol on lung function stratified by inhaled corticosteroid use. We found that lung-function end points were significantly improved regardless of concomitant inhaled corticosteroid use among patients treated with the dual bronchodilator aclidinium/formoterol 400/12 µg twice daily compared with placebo and both monotherapies. Together with the previously reported observations that aclidinium/formoterol 400/12 µg reduces exacerbations vs. placebo in inhaled corticosteroid users and improves dyspnoea compared to monotherapy in inhaled corticosteroid non-users, these data suggest that both groups achieve lung function improvements, which translates to different clinical benefits depending on whether or not a patient is receiving concomitant inhaled corticosteroids.CHRONIC LUNG DISEASE: 'TRIPLE' THERAPY COULD PROVE BENEFICIAL: A dual bronchodilator therapy taken together with corticosteroid inhalers may benefit patients with severe chronic lung disease. Bronchodilator drugs relax the lungs and widen airways in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). While recent studies have shown that a dual bronchodilator therapy containing aclidinium and formoterol significantly improves lung function in COPD, little is known about combining the dual therapy with inhaled corticosteroids (ICSs). Anthony D'Urzo at the University of Toronto, Canada, and co-workers analysed data from 3394 patients with COPD undergoing dual therapy trials. Of these, 1180 were already taking ICSs. The team compared symptoms in the ICS group with those not taking ICSs. The dual therapy improved lung function across both groups regardless of ICS use, though patients gained different clinical benefits depending on ICS use and disease severity.

First maintenance therapy for COPD in the UK between 2009 and 2012: a retrospective database analysis

Clinical guidelines recommend long-acting bronchodilators as first maintenance therapy for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), with inhaled corticosteroids (ICS) reserved for patients with more severe disease and exacerbations. The aim of this analysis was to examine real-life prescribing of first maintenance therapy for COPD in the UK. Data were extracted from the UK Optimum Patient Care Research Database for patients with a first prescription for COPD maintenance therapy between 2009 and 2012 and a diagnosis of COPD at or before the date of the first prescription for COPD maintenance therapy. Routine clinical data including demographics, disease history and symptoms, comorbidities, therapy, hospitalisation rate and exacerbation rate were collected and used to characterise patients stratified by disease severity and Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) group (A–D). The analysis population included 2,217 individuals (55.4% male, 45.2% smokers). Long-acting muscarinic antagonists (LAMA) as monotherapy were prescribed as first maintenance therapy for 40.2% of patients. ICS were prescribed as ICS/long-acting beta-agonists combination for 29.1% of patients or as monotherapy for 15.5%. ICS (alone or in combination) were prescribed to >40% of patients in each GOLD group. ICS-containing regimens were prescribed to patients with a history of pneumonia and comorbid conditions for whom the risks of ICS therapy may outweigh the benefits. The clinical reality of prescribing indicates that ICS are often prescribed outside current guideline recommendations for many patients newly diagnosed with COPD in the UK. Encouragingly, LAMAs are increasingly being prescribed as first maintenance therapy for these patients.

Comparison of the clinical characteristics and treatment outcomes of patients requiring hospital admission to treat eosinophilic and neutrophilic exacerbations of COPD

PURPOSE

We compared the clinical characteristics and treatment outcomes of patients with eosinophilic and neutrophilic COPD exacerbations requiring hospital admission.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

This was a retrospective multicenter study performed between January 2010 and December 2014. In all, 1,688 COPD patients admitted via the outpatient clinics or emergency departments of six university hospitals were enrolled. The patients were grouped by complete blood counts: eosinophilic group, >2% peripheral blood eosinophils, and neutrophilic group, >65% peripheral blood neutrophils or >11,000 leukocytes/mL. The patients with radiographic evidence of pneumonia at the time of admission, those with lung cancer, those admitted for treatment of other medical problems, and those who chronically used steroids were excluded.

RESULTS

A total of 605 patients hospitalized with COPD exacerbations (177 eosinophilic and 380 neutrophilic) were included. Pulmonary functions, including the forced expiratory volume in 1 second and forced vital capacity, were better in patients with eosinophilic exacerbations. Treatment outcomes, including the rate of admission to the intensive care unit and mortality, were poorer in patients with neutrophilic exacerbations (4.5% vs 12.4%, P=0.004; 1.1% vs 4.5%, P=0.043, respectively). Congestive heart failure (odds ratio [OR] =3.40, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.28-9.01) and neutrophilic exacerbation (OR = 2.81, 95% CI: 1.21-6.52) were independent risk factors for intensive care unit admission.

CONCLUSION

COPD patients with neutrophilic exacerbations experienced worse clinical outcomes than did those with eosinophilic exacerbations. The peripheral blood eosinophil count may be a useful predictor of clinical progress during hospitalization of COPD patients with acute exacerbations.

Cost Effectiveness of the Long-Acting β2-Adrenergic Agonist (LABA)/Long-Acting Muscarinic Antagonist Dual Bronchodilator Indacaterol/Glycopyrronium Versus the LABA/Inhaled Corticosteroid Combination Salmeterol/Fluticasone in Patients with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease: Analyses Conducted for Canada, France, Italy, and Portugal

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this study was to assess the cost effectiveness of the dual bronchodilator indacaterol/glycopyrronium (IND/GLY) compared with salmeterol/fluticasone combination (SFC) in patients with moderate-to-severe chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) who had a history of one or no exacerbations in the previous year, in Canada, France, Italy, and Portugal.

METHODS

A patient-level simulation was developed to compare the costs and outcomes of IND/GLY versus SFC based on data from the LANTERN trial (NCT01709903). Monte-Carlo simulation methods were employed to follow individual patients over various time horizons. Population and efficacy inputs were derived from the LANTERN trial. Considering the payers' perspective, only direct costs were included. Costs and health outcomes were discounted annually at 3.0 % for all countries. Unit costs were taken from publically available sources with all costs converted to euros (€). The cost base year was 2015. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were undertaken to test the robustness of the model results.

RESULTS

IND/GLY was found to be the dominant (more effective and less costly) treatment option compared with SFC in all four countries. The use of IND/GLY was associated with mean total cost savings per patient over a lifetime of €6202, €1974, €1611, and €220 in Canada, France, Italy, and Portugal, respectively. Sensitivity analysis showed that exacerbation rates had the largest impact on incremental costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). The probability of IND/GLY being cost effective was estimated to be >95 % for thresholds above €5000/QALY.

CONCLUSION

In patients with moderate to severe COPD, IND/GLY is likely to be a cost-effective treatment alternative compared with SFC.