Clinical Predictors of COVID-19 Mortality Among Patients in Intensive Care Units: A Retrospective Study

Single-Center Experience With the Seraph-100® Microbind® Affinity Blood Filter in Patients With SARS-CoV-2 Infection and Septic Shock at a Military Treatment Facility

INTRODUCTION

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection is characterized by a dysregulated inflammatory response, which may result in severe hemodynamic instability and septic shock. The Seraph-100® Microbind® Affinity Blood Filter is a commercially available extracorporeal pathogen absorbent device with the ability to bind pathogens and cytokines present within the blood. Our study aimed to evaluate the efficacy of the Seraph-100® for patients with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection and septic shock.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A retrospective review was performed to evaluate the use of the Seraph-100® blood filter at a Single Center tertiary-care facility at Brooke Army Medical Center from 2020 to 2021. Nine patients (11 treatments) were completed with the Seraph-100® blood filter in patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection and septic shock. The Seraph-100® blood filter was used in combination with continuous renal replacement therapy and slow low-efficiency dialysis or directly in parallel with the extracorporeal membrane oxygenation circuit.

RESULTS

Within this cohort, there was a statistically significant improvement in the following clinical parameters comparing values to before and after treatment with the Seraph-100® blood filter: Mean arterial pressure (mmHg) (64.2 ± 2.36 vs. 76.2 ± 2.68; P < .001), heart rate (beats per minute) (128 ± 6.6 vs. 100.3 ± 6.07; P < .001), administered fraction of oxygen (%) (74.4 ± 10.58 vs. 60.3 ± 10.35; P < .001), serum lactate (mmol/L) (6.14 ± 1.25 vs. 2.8 ± 1.14; P = .0095), and pH (7.29 ± 0.03 vs. 7.39 ± 0.04; P = .0203). There were statistically significant improvements in vasopressor requirements: norepinephrine (mcg/min) (36.3 ± 4.74 vs. 8.3 ± 3.92; P < .001), vasopressin (units/min) (0.04 ± 0.004 vs. 0.02 ± 0.003; P < .001), dobutamine (mcg/kg/min) (2.3 ± 1.00 vs. 0.2 ± 0.75; P = .006) and angiotensin II (ng/kg/min) (34.5 ± 6.4 vs. 3.3 ± 5.26; P < .001).

CONCLUSIONS

The use of the Seraph-100® blood filter was associated with statistically and clinically significant improvements in hemodynamic parameters and decreased vasopressor requirements in patients with septic shock and SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Prognostic models in COVID-19 infection that predict severity: a systematic review

Current evidence on COVID-19 prognostic models is inconsistent and clinical applicability remains controversial. We performed a systematic review to summarize and critically appraise the available studies that have developed, assessed and/or validated prognostic models of COVID-19 predicting health outcomes. We searched six bibliographic databases to identify published articles that investigated univariable and multivariable prognostic models predicting adverse outcomes in adult COVID-19 patients, including intensive care unit (ICU) admission, intubation, high-flow nasal therapy (HFNT), extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) and mortality. We identified and assessed 314 eligible articles from more than 40 countries, with 152 of these studies presenting mortality, 66 progression to severe or critical illness, 35 mortality and ICU admission combined, 17 ICU admission only, while the remaining 44 studies reported prediction models for mechanical ventilation (MV) or a combination of multiple outcomes. The sample size of included studies varied from 11 to 7,704,171 participants, with a mean age ranging from 18 to 93 years. There were 353 prognostic models investigated, with area under the curve (AUC) ranging from 0.44 to 0.99. A great proportion of studies (61.5%, 193 out of 314) performed internal or external validation or replication. In 312 (99.4%) studies, prognostic models were reported to be at high risk of bias due to uncertainties and challenges surrounding methodological rigor, sampling, handling of missing data, failure to deal with overfitting and heterogeneous definitions of COVID-19 and severity outcomes. While several clinical prognostic models for COVID-19 have been described in the literature, they are limited in generalizability and/or applicability due to deficiencies in addressing fundamental statistical and methodological concerns. Future large, multi-centric and well-designed prognostic prospective studies are needed to clarify remaining uncertainties.

The COVIDTW study: Clinical predictors of COVID-19 mortality and a novel AI prognostic model using chest X-ray

BACKGROUND

There is a lack of published research on the impact of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Taiwan. We investigated the mortality risk factors among critically ill patients with COVID-19 in Taiwan during the initial wave. Furthermore, we aim to develop a novel AI mortality prediction model using chest X-ray (CXR) alone.

METHOD

We retrospectively reviewed the medical records of patients with COVID-19 at Taipei Tzu Chi Hospital from May 15 to July 15 2021. We enrolled adult patients who received invasive mechanical ventilation. The CXR images of each enrolled patient were divided into 4 categories (1st, pre-ETT, ETT, and WORST). To establish a prediction model, we used the MobilenetV3-Small model with "Imagenet" pretrained weights, followed by high Dropout regularization layers. We trained the model with these data with Five-Fold Cross-Validation to evaluate model performance.

RESULT

A total of 64 patients were enrolled. The overall mortality rate was 45%. The median time from symptom onset to intubation was 8 days. Vasopressor use and a higher BRIXIA score on the WORST CXR were associated with an increased risk of mortality. The areas under the curve of the 1st, pre-ETT, ETT, and WORST CXRs by the AI model were 0.87, 0.92, 0.96, and 0.93 respectively.

CONCLUSION

The mortality rate of COVID-19 patients who receive invasive mechanical ventilation was high. Septic shock and high BRIXIA score were clinical predictors of mortality. The novel AI mortality prediction model using CXR alone exhibited a high performance.

Acceptance, Advocacy, and Perception of Health Care Providers on COVID-19 Vaccine: Comparing Early Stage of COVID-19 Vaccination with Latter Stage in the Eastern Region of Saudi Arabia

Vaccination of healthcare providers has recently gained focused attention of public health officials. As HCPs have direct contact with the population, and HCPs significantly influence the population, this study aimed to compare the acceptance rate, advocacy rate, and beliefs about the COVID-19 vaccine among HCPs in two time periods. In this repeated cross-sectional study, different HCPs were assessed in two periods ten months apart, i.e., November to December 2020 and September to October 2021, which were before and after COVID-19 vaccine approval by authorities. The study was conducted in Qatif Central Hospital, Eastern Region of Saudi Arabia. There were 609 respondents: 236 participants in the first period and 373 participants in the second period. Only 13 participants did not get the COVID-19 vaccine. There was around a 40% difference in the acceptance rate between the two study periods; the latter period was higher at 94.7%. Furthermore, 24.1% was the difference between the willingness to advocate the COVID-19 vaccine for others; the first period had a lower percentage (60.1%). Overall, results of the study showed that vaccine hesitancy, as well as the willingness to advocate for the vaccine, were improved between the pre-vaccine approval period and post-vaccine approval period, showing that the efforts made by the government improved COVID-19 acceptance and advocacy among HCPs. However, vaccine hesitancy is not a new issue, and for a better understanding of HCPs' beliefs, a qualitative study is needed.

A systematic review and meta-analysis of the association between the neutrophil, lymphocyte, and platelet count, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, and platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio and COVID-19 progression and mortality

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Severe manifestations of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are associated with alterations in blood cells that regulate immunity, inflammation, and hemostasis. We conducted an updated systematic review and meta-analysis of the association between the neutrophil, lymphocyte, and platelet count, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), and platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR), and COVID-19 progression and mortality.

METHODS

A systematic literature search was conducted in PubMed, Web of Science, and Scopus for studies published between January 2020 and June 2022.

RESULTS

In 71 studies reporting the investigated parameters within 48 hours of admission, higher NLR (HR 1.21, 95% CI 1.16 to 1.27, p < 0.0001), relative neutrophilia (HR 1.62, 95% CI 1.46 to 1.80, p < 0.0001), relative lymphopenia (HR 1.62, 95% CI 1.27 to 2.08, p < 0.001), and relative thrombocytopenia (HR 1.74, 95% CI 1.36 to 2.22, p < 0.001), but not PLR (p = 0.11), were significantly associated with disease progression and mortality. Between-study heterogeneity was large-to-extreme. The magnitude and direction of the effect size were not modified in sensitivity analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

NLR and neutrophil, lymphocyte, and platelet count significantly discriminate COVID-19 patients with different progression and survival outcomes. (PROSPERO registration number: CRD42021267875).

Mortality Predictors Among COVID-19 Elderly in Taif, Saudi Arabia

Background

By December 2021, the COVID-19 pandemic had caused more than 266 million cases and 5 million deaths, especially among geriatric patients.

Objective

To identify determinants of COVID-19-related death in geriatric patients.

Methods

This is a comparative retrospective study involving 145 COVID-19 hospitalized patients who are more than 60 years old, conducted at King Faisal Medical Complex in Taif, Saudi Arabia, from June 2020 to August 2020. The main outcome studied was COVID-19-related death.

Results

Out of 145 elderly COVID-19 patients, 11% have died. There was a significant difference between those who died and the surviving group regarding hospital stay duration, with a higher duration median among those who died (22 days vs 12 day respectively, p=0.002). Transfer to ICU, mechanical ventilation, low oxygen saturation, shortness of breath, respiratory support, x-ray trend, and prolonged QT interval showed significant statistical differences between them (p<0.001, <0.001, 0.017, 0.045, <0.001, <0.001, 0.004, respectively). After doing logistic regression of predictors for progression to death, putting patients on oxygen only vs mechanical ventilation was statistically significant, with an adjusted odds ratio (AOR) of 0.038 (p=0.012). Worse x-rays vs constant also were statistically significant and had AOR of 23.459 (p=0.001). There was a significant moderate positive correlation between duration of hospital stay and duration from admission to medication start (SP=0.336 and p<0.001).

Conclusion

We recommend accurately monitoring patients using x-rays to determine which patients have worse x-rays. However, the cost-benefit of using radiation must be well assessed and needs further research to determine if its benefit outweighs its risks, especially in high-risk patients. Furthermore, mechanically ventilated patients must be carefully monitored. Finally, the duration of hospital stay was highly correlated with the duration from admission to medication start. Therefore, proper treatment must be started as early as possible.

Early use of tocilizumab in solid organ transplant recipients with COVID-19: A retrospective cohort study in Saudi Arabia

BACKGROUND

Tocilizumab was studied to reduce cytokine syndrome in patients with severe COVID-19 pneumonia in solid organ transplant (SOT) recipients with conflicting results. We aim to study the early use of tocilizumab in SOT with COVID-19 pneumonia on low flow oxygen.

METHODS

This is a retrospective cohort study that was conducted in two transplant centers in Saudi Arabia among 46 SOT with COVID-19 comparing 21 patients who received tocilizumab to 25 patients who received standard of care. Their clinical characteristics and outcomes were described.

RESULTS

Compared to patients who received standard of care, patients in the tocilizumab group were older (60.2 ± 12.8 vs. 48.6 ± 12.3, p = .003), had higher ferritin (862.1 ± 919.1 vs. 414 ± 447.3, p = .025) and C-reactive protein (CRP) (85 ± 83.1 vs. 42.9 ± 57.3, p = .012). More patients in the tocilizumab group required high flow oxygen (38.1% vs. 8.0%, p = .028) compared to patients on standard of care. There were no differences in mortality or mechanical ventilation requirement. Hospital stay was significantly shorter in the tocilizumab group than the standard of care group (9.6 ± 7.4 vs. 20.7 ± 11.7, p < .001).

CONCLUSIONS

Early use of tocilizumab in SOT was associated with a shorter hospital stay. There was no difference in mortality rate and the requirement for mechanical ventilation in both groups.

Diabetic ketoacidosis in patients with SARS-CoV-2: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

One possible reason for increased mortality due to SARS-CoV-2 in patients with diabetes is from the complication of diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA).

OBJECTIVES

To re-evaluate the association of SARS-CoV-2 and development of DKA and analyse the demographic and biochemical parameters and the clinical outcomes in COVID-19 patients with DKA.

DESIGN

A systematic review and meta-analysis. Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses statement was followed.

METHODS

Electronic databases (Proquest, Medline, Embase, Pubmed, CINAHL, Wiley online library, Scopus and Nature) were searched from 1 December 2019 to 30 June 2021 in the English language using the following keywords alone or in combination: COVID-19 OR SARS-CoV-2 AND diabetic ketoacidosis OR DKA OR ketosis OR ketonemia OR hyperglycaemic emergency OR hyperglycaemic crisis. We included studies in adults and children of all ages in all healthcare settings. Binary logistic regression model was used to explore the effect of various demographic and biochemical parameters variables on patient's final treatment outcome (survival or death).

RESULTS

Of the 484 papers that were identified, 68 articles were included in the systematic review and meta-analysis (54 case report, 10 case series, and 4 cohort studies). Studies involving 639 DKA patients with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 [46 (7.2%) were children and 334 (52.3%) were adults] were analyzed. The median or mean patient age ranged from < 1 years to 66 years across studies. Most of the patients (n = 309, 48.3%) had pre-existing type 2 diabetes mellitus. The majority of the patients were male (n = 373, 58.4%) and belonged to Hispanic (n = 156, 24.4%) and black (n = 98, 15.3%) ethnicity. The median random blood glucose level, HbA1c, pH, bicarbonate, and anion gap in all included patients at presentation were 507 mg/dl [IQR 399-638 mg/dl], 11.4% [IQR 9.9-13.5%], 7.16 [IQR 7.00-7.22], 10 mmol/l [IQR 6.9-13 mmol/l], and 24.5 mEq/l [18-29.2 mEq/l]; respectively. Mortality rate was [63/243, 25.9%], with a majority of death in patients of Hispanic ethnicity (n = 17, 27%; p = 0.001). The odd ratios of death were significantly high in patients with pre-existing diabetes mellitus type 2 [OR 5.24, 95% CI 2.07-15.19; p = 0.001], old age (≥ 60 years) [OR 3.29, 95% CI 1.38-7.91; p = 0.007], and male gender [OR 2.61, 95% CI 1.37-5.17; p = 0.004] compared to those who survived.

CONCLUSION

DKA is not uncommon in SARS-CoV-2 patients with diabetes mellitus and results in a mortality rate of 25.9%. Mortality key determinants in DKA patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection are individuals with pre-existing diabetes mellitus type 2, older age [≥ 60 years old], male gender, BMI ≥ 30, blood glucose level > 1000 mg/dl, and anion gap ≥ 30 mEq/l.

Examining and investigating the impact of demographic characteristics and chronic diseases on mortality of COVID-19: Retrospective study

BACKGROUND

Epidemiological features characterization of COVID-19 is highly important for developing and implementing effective control measures. In Saudi Arabia mortality rate varies between 0.6% to 1.26%. The purpose of the study was to investigate whether demographic characteristics (age and gender) and non-communicable diseases (Hypertension and Diabetes mellitus) have a significant association with mortality in COVID-19 patients.

METHODS

Prior to data collection, an expedite approval was obtained from Institutional Review Board (IRB Log No: RC. RC20.09.10) in Al Habib Research Center at Dr. Sulaiman Al-Habib Medical Group, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. This is a retrospective design where we used descriptive and inferential analysis to analyse the data. Binary logistic regression was done to study the association between comorbidities and mortality of COVID-19.

RESULTS

43 (86%) of the male patients were non-survivors while 7 (14%) of the female patients were survivors. The odds of non-survivors among hypertensive patients are 3.56 times higher than those who are not having a history of Hypertension (HTN). The odds of non-survivors among diabetic patients are 5.17 times higher than those who are not having a history of Diabetes mellitus (DM). The odds of non-survivors are 2.77 times higher among those who have a history of HTN and DM as compared to those who did not have a history of HTN and DM.

CONCLUSIONS

Those patients that had a history of Hypertension and Diabetes had a higher probability of non-survival in contrast to those who did not have a history of Diabetes and hypertension. Further studies are required to study the association of comorbidities with COVID-19 and mortality.

Examining the Clinical Prognosis of Critically Ill Patients with COVID-19 Admitted to Intensive Care Units: A Nationwide Saudi Study

Backgroundand Objectives: COVID-19 is a novel infectious disease caused by a single-stranded RNA coronavirus called severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). We aimed to conduct a nationwide multicenter study to determine the characteristics and the clinical prognostic outcome of critically ill COVID-19 patients admitted to intensive care units (ICUs). Materials and Methods: This is a nationwide cohort retrospective study conducted in twenty Saudi hospitals. Results: An analysis of 1470 critically ill COVID-19 patients demonstrated that the majority of patients were male with a mean age of 55.9 ± 15.1 years. Most of our patients presented with a shortness of breath (SOB) (81.3%), followed by a fever (73.7%) and a cough (65.1%). Diabetes and hypertension were the most common comorbidities in the study (52.4% and 46.0%, respectively). Multiple complications were observed substantially more among non-survivors. The length and frequency of mechanical ventilation use were significantly greater (83%) in the non-survivors compared with the survivors (31%). The mean Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score was 6 ± 5. The overall mortality rate of the cohort associated with patients that had diabetes, hypertension and ischemic heart disease was 41.8%. Conclusion: Age; a pre-existing medical history of hypertension, diabetes and ischemic heart disease; smoking cigarettes; a BMI ≥ 29; a long mechanical ventilation and ICU stay; the need of ventilatory support; a high SOFA score; fungal co-infections and extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) use were key clinical characteristics that predicted a high mortality in our population.