A meta-analysis of quality-of-life estimates for stroke

Cost-Effectiveness of Screening Asymptomatic Carotid Stenosis by Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Risk

Importance

Extracranial internal carotid artery stenosis (50-99% arterial narrowing) is an important risk factor for ischemic stroke. Yet, the benefits and harms of targeted screening for asymptomatic carotid artery stenosis (ACAS) have not been assessed in population-based studies.

Objective

To estimate the cost-effectiveness of one-time, targeted ACAS screening stratified by atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk using the American Heart Association's Pooled Cohort Equations.

Design Setting and Participants

We developed a lifetime microsimulation model of ACAS and stroke for a hypothetical cohort representative of US adults aged 50-80 years without stroke history. We used the Cardiovascular Health Study to estimate the probability and severity of ACAS based on individual characteristics (e.g., age, sex, smoking status, blood pressure, and cholesterol). Stroke risks were functions of these characteristics and ACAS severity. In the model, individuals testing positive for >70% stenosis with Duplex ultrasound and a confirmatory diagnostic test undergo revascularization, which may reduce the risk of stroke but also introduces complication risks. Diagnostic performance parameters, revascularization benefits and risks, utility weights, and costs were estimated from published sources. Cost-effectiveness was assessed from the health care sector perspective using a $100,000/quality-adjusted life year (QALY) threshold.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Estimated stroke events prevented, lifetime costs, QALYs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) associated with ACAS screening. Costs (2023 USD) and QALYs were discounted at 3% annually.

Results

We found that screening individuals with a 10-year ASCVD risk >30% was the most cost-effective strategy, with an ICER of $89,000/QALY. This strategy would make approximately 11.9% of the population eligible for screening, averting an estimated 24,084 strokes. Results were sensitive to variations in the efficacy and complication risk of revascularization. In probabilistic sensitivity analysis, screening those in lower ASCVD risk groups (0-20%) only had a 0.6% chance of being cost-effective.

Conclusion and Relevance

A one-time screening may only be cost-effective for adults at a relatively high ASCVD risk. Our findings provide a framework that can be adapted as future clinical trial data continue to improve our understanding of the role of revascularization and intensive medical therapy in contemporary stroke prevention secondary to carotid disease.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of Shexiang Baoxin Pill (MUSKARDIA) as the add-on treatment to standard therapy for stable coronary artery disease in China

BACKGROUND

Recent evidence indicates that Shexiang Baoxin Pill (MUSKARDIA), as an add-on treatment to standard therapy for stable coronary artery disease (CAD), is effective. Nevertheless, the cost-effectiveness of introducing the Shexiang Baoxin Pill (Abbreviation SBP) to the current standard treatment for patients with CAD in China remains unknown.

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this study was to assess the cost-effectiveness of introducing SBP into the current standard treatment in China for patients with CAD.

METHOD

The effects of two treatment strategies-the SBP group (SBP combined with standard therapy) and the standard therapy group (placebo combined with standard therapy)-were simulated using a long-term Markov model. The simulation subjects might experience non-fatal MI and/or stroke or vascular or non-vascular death events. The study parameters were primarily derived from the MUSKARDIA trial, which was a multicenter, double-blind, placebo-controlled phase IV randomized clinical trial. Furthermore, age-related change, event costs, and event utilities were drawn from publicly available sources. Both costs and health outcomes were discounted at 5.0% per annum. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted to verify the robustness of the model. Based on the MUSKARDIA trial results, the risk with the events of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) was decreased (P < 0.05) in the female subgroup treated with SBP therapy compared with standard therapy. Consequently, a scenario analysis based on subgroups of Chinese females was conducted for this study. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were assessed for each strategy for costs per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) saved.

RESULTS

After 30 years of simulation, the SBP group has added 0.32 QALYs, and the cost has been saved 841.00 CNY. Compared with the standard therapy, the ICER for the SBP therapy was -2628.13 CNY per QALY. Scenario analyses of Chinese females showed that, after 30 years of simulation, the SBP therapy has been increased by 0.82 QALYs, and the cost has been reduced by 19474.00 CNY. Compared with the standard therapy, the ICER for the SBP therapy was -26569.51 CNY per QALY. Similar results were obtained in various extensive sensitivity analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

This is the first study to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of SBP in the treatment of CAD. In conclusion, SBP as an add-on treatment to standard therapy appears to be a cost-effective strategy for CAD in Chinese patients.

International Systematic Review of Utility Values Associated with Cardiovascular Disease and Reflections on Selecting Evidence for a UK Decision-Analytic Model

PURPOSE

Evaluating interventions for cardiovascular disease (CVD) requires estimates of its effect on utility. We aimed to 1) systematically review utility estimates for CVDs published since 2013 and 2) critically appraise UK-relevant estimates and calculate corresponding baseline utility multipliers.

METHODS

We searched MEDLINE and Embase (April 22, 2021) using CVD and utility terms. We screened results for primary studies reporting utility distributions for people with experience of heart failure, myocardial infarction, peripheral arterial disease, stable angina, stroke, transient ischemic attack, or unstable angina. We extracted characteristics from studies included. For UK estimates based on the EuroQoL 5-dimension (EQ-5D) measure, we assessed risk of bias and applicability to a decision-analytic model, pooled arms/time points as appropriate, and estimated baseline utility multipliers using predicted utility for age- and sex- matched populations without CVD. We sought utility sources from directly applicable studies with low risk of bias, prioritizing plausibility of severity ordering in our base-case model and highest population ascertainment in a sensitivity analysis.

RESULTS

Most of the 403 studies identified used EQ-5D (n = 217) and most assessed Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development populations (n = 262), although measures and countries varied widely. UK studies using EQ-5D (n = 29) produced very heterogeneous baseline utility multipliers for each type of CVD, precluding meta-analysis and implying different possible severity orderings. We could find sources that provided a plausible ordering of utilities while adequately representing health states.

CONCLUSIONS

We cataloged international CVD utility estimates and calculated UK-relevant baseline utility multipliers. Modelers should consider unreported sources of heterogeneity, such as population differences, when selecting utility evidence from reviews.

HIGHLIGHTS

Published systematic reviews have summarized estimates of utility associated with cardiovascular disease published up to 2013.We 1) reviewed utility estimates for 7 types of cardiovascular disease published since 2013, 2) critically appraised UK-relevant studies, and 3) estimated the effect of each cardiovascular disease on baseline utility.Our review 1) recommends a consistent and reliable set of baseline utility multipliers for 7 types of cardiovascular disease and 2) provides systematically identified reference information for researchers seeking utility evidence for their own context.

A cost-effectiveness analysis of remote monitoring after pacemaker implantation for bradycardia in Japan

BACKGROUND

Although remote monitoring (RM) after pacemaker implantation is common, its cost-effectiveness has not been fully investigated. Therefore, we assessed the cost-effectiveness of RM compared with conventional follow-up (CFU) in Japanese patients with pacemakers.

METHODS

A Markov model was constructed to analyze costs and quality-adjusted life years after pacemaker implantation. The target population was Japanese patients implanted with a dual-chamber pacemaker for bradycardia. Transition probabilities (e.g. atrial fibrillation, stroke, and device trouble) were obtained from literature and expert sources. Additionally, stroke risk was determined according to anticoagulation and CHADS2 scores. We used a 10-year horizon with sensitivity analyses for significant variables.

RESULTS

Compared to CFU, RM was more effective; however, it was also more expensive. When the range of the Japanese willingness-to-pay threshold was considered to be ¥5,000,000, RM was at least cost-neutral relative to the CFU in all elderly patients with pacemakers for bradycardia. The cost-effectiveness of RM relative to CFU could be higher for patients with high CHADS2 scores, especially in patients with a CHADS2 score ≥ 3. Scenario analyses changing the interval between visits to an in-office evaluation in the CFU also demonstrated the same conclusions. In particular, when the interval between office visits was 1 year for the CFU, the RM could be more cost-effective.

CONCLUSIONS

This study demonstrated that RM can be a cost-effective option for Japanese patients, especially those with high CHADS2 scores and long-term intervals between office visits.

A systematic review and meta-analysis of health utility values among patients with ischemic stroke

Purpose

Ischemic stroke (IS) has a considerable impact on the health-related quality of life (HRQoL) of patients. A systematic review was conducted to summarize and synthesize the HRQoL reported from IS patients.

Methods

An electronic search was performed in PubMed, Web of Science, ScienceDirect, Embase, and Cochrane Library databases from inception to February 2022 for studies measuring utility values in IS patients. Basic information about the studies, patient characteristics, measurement of the utility values, and utility values were extracted and summarized. Utility values were pooled according to the time of evaluation, and disease severity was classified with modified Rankin Scale (mRS) scores. The quality of the studies was assessed according to key criteria recommended by the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence.

Results

A total of 39 studies comprising 30,853 participants were included in the study. Measured with EQ-5D-3L, the pooled utility values were 0.42 [95% confidential interval (CI): 0.13 to 0.71], 0.55 (95% CI: 0.43 to 0.68), 0.65 (95% CI: 0.52 to 0.78), 0.60 (95% CI: 0.43 to 0.78), and 0.67 (95% CI: 0.60 to 0.74) for patients diagnosed with IS within 1, 3, 6, 12, and 24 months or above among poststroke patients. Four studies reported utility values classified by mRS scores where synthesized estimates stratified by mRS scores ranged from 0.91 (95% CI: 0.85 to 0.97) for patients with an mRS score of 1 to-0.04 (95% CI:-0.18 to 0.11) for those with an mRS score of 5. As for the health dimension profiles, usual activity was the most impacted dimension, while self-care was the least impacted one.

Conclusion

This study indicated that the utility values in IS patients kept increasing from stroke onset and became relatively stabilized at 6 months poststroke. Health utility values decreased significantly as mRS scores increased. These results facilitate economic evaluations in utility retrieval and selection. Further exploration was required regarding the factors that affect the HRQoL of IS patients.

Incorporating Prior Beliefs Into Meta-Analyses of Health-State Utility Values Using the Bayesian Power Prior

OBJECTIVES

Health-state utility values (HSUVs) directly affect estimates of Quality-Adjusted Life-Years and thus the cost-utility estimates. In practice a single preferred value (SPV) is often selected for HSUVs, despite meta-analysis being an option when multiple (credible) HSUVs are available. Nevertheless, the SPV approach is often reasonable because meta-analysis implicitly considers all HSUVs as equally relevant. This article presents a method for the incorporation of weights to HSUV synthesis, allowing more relevant studies to have greater influence.

METHODS

Using 4 case studies in lung cancer, hemodialysis, compensated liver cirrhosis, and diabetic retinopathy blindness, a Bayesian Power Prior (BPP) approach is used to incorporate beliefs on study applicability, reflecting the authors' perceived suitability for UK decision making. Older studies, non-UK value sets, and vignette studies are thus downweighted (but not disregarded). BPP HSUV estimates were compared with a SPV, random effects meta-analysis, and fixed effects meta-analysis. Sensitivity analyses were conducted iteratively updating the case studies, using alternative weighting methods, and simulated data.

RESULTS

Across all case studies, SPVs did not accord with meta-analyzed values, and fixed effects meta-analysis produced unrealistically narrow CIs. Point estimates from random effects meta-analysis and BPP models were similar in the final models, although BPP reflected additional uncertainty as wider credible intervals, particularly when fewer studies were available. Differences in point estimates were seen in iterative updating, weighting approaches, and simulated data.

CONCLUSIONS

The concept of the BPP can be adapted for synthesizing HSUVs, incorporating expert opinion on relevance. Because of the downweighting of studies, the BPP reflected structural uncertainty as wider credible intervals, with all forms of synthesis showing meaningful differences compared with SPVs. These differences would have implications for both cost-utility point estimates and probabilistic analyses.

Cost Effectiveness of Ambulatory Blood Pressure Monitoring Compared with Home or Clinic Blood Pressure Monitoring for Diagnosing Hypertension in Australia

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to evaluate the cost effectiveness of ambulatory blood pressure monitoring (ABPM) compared with home blood pressure monitoring (HBPM) and clinic blood pressure monitoring (CBPM) in diagnosing hypertension in Australia.

METHODS

A cohort-based Markov model was built from the Payer's perspective (Australian government) comparing lifetime costs and effectiveness of ABPM, HBPM and CBPM in people aged ≥ 35 years with suspected hypertension who have a CBPM between ≥ 140/90 mmHg and ≤ 180/110 mmHg using a sphygmomanometer and have not yet commenced antihypertensive treatment. The main outcome measures were incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) assessing cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) and life-years (LYs) gained by ABPM versus HBPM and CBPM. Cost was measured in Australian dollars (A$).

RESULTS

Over a lifetime model, ABPM had lower total costs (A$8,491) compared with HBPM (A$9,648) and CBPM (A$10,206) per person. ABPM was associated with a small but significant improvement in the quality and quantity of life for people with suspected hypertension with 12.872 QALYs and 17.449 LYs compared with 12.857 QALYs and 17.433 LYs with HBPM, and 12.850 QALYs and 17.425 LYs with CBPM. In the base-case analysis, ABPM dominated HBPM and CBPM. In scenario analyses, at 100% specificity of HBPM, ABPM no longer remained cost effective at a A$50,000/QALY threshold. However, in probabilistic sensitivity analysis, over 10,000 iterations, ABPM remained dominant.

CONCLUSION

ABPM was the dominant strategy for confirming the diagnosis of hypertension among Australian adults aged ≥ 35 years old with suspected hypertension. The findings of this study are important for reimbursement decision makers to support policy change and for clinicians to make practice changes consistent with ABPM recommendations in primary care.

Cost-Effectiveness of Polygenic Risk Scores to Guide Statin Therapy for Cardiovascular Disease Prevention

BACKGROUND

Atherosclerotic cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are leading causes of death despite effective therapies and result in unnecessary morbidity and mortality throughout the world. We aimed to investigate the cost-effectiveness of polygenic risk scores (PRS) to guide statin therapy for Canadians with intermediate CVD risk and model its economic outlook.

METHODS

This cost-utility analysis was conducted using UK Biobank prospective cohort study participants, with recruitment from 2006 to 2010, and at least 10 years of follow-up. We included nonrelated white British-descent participants (n=96 116) at intermediate CVD risk with no prior lipid lowering medication or statin-indicated conditions. A coronary artery disease PRS was used to inform decision to use statins. The effects of statin therapy with and without PRS, as well as CVD events were modelled to determine the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio from a Canadian public health care perspective. We discounted future costs and quality-adjusted life-years by 1.5% annually.

RESULTS

The optimal economic strategy was when intermediate risk individuals with a PRS in the top 70% are eligible for statins while the lowest 1% are excluded. Base-case analysis at a genotyping cost of $70 produced an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $172 906 (143 685 USD) per quality-adjusted life-year. In the probabilistic sensitivity analysis, the intervention has approximately a 50% probability of being cost-effective at $179 100 (148 749 USD) per quality-adjusted life-year. At a $0 genotyping cost, representing individuals with existing genotyping information, PRS-guided strategies dominated standard care when 12% of the lowest PRS individuals were withheld from statins. With improved PRS predictive performance and lower genotyping costs, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio demonstrates possible cost-effectiveness under thresholds of $150 000 and possibly $50 000 per quality-adjusted life-year.

CONCLUSIONS

This study suggests that using PRS alongside existing guidelines might be cost-effective for CVD. Stronger predictiveness combined with decreased cost of PRS could further improve cost-effectiveness, providing an economic basis for its inclusion into clinical care.

Estimating the Burden of Stroke: Two-Year Societal Costs and Generic Health-Related Quality of Life of the Restore4Stroke Cohort

(1) Background: This study aimed to investigate two-year societal costs and generic health-related quality of life (QoL) using a bottom-up approach for the Restore4Stroke Cohort. (2) Methods: Adult post-stroke patients were recruited from stroke units throughout the Netherlands. The societal costs were calculated for healthcare and non-healthcare costs in the first two years after stroke. The QoL was measured using EQ-5D-3L. The differences between (sub)groups over time were investigated using a non-parametric bootstrapping method. (3) Results: A total of 344 post-stroke patients were included. The total two-year societal costs of a post-stroke were EUR 47,502 (standard deviation (SD = EUR 2628)). The healthcare costs decreased by two thirds in the second year -EUR 14,277 (95% confidence interval -EUR 17,319, -EUR 11,236). In the second year, over 50% of the total societal costs were connected to non-healthcare costs (such as informal care, paid help, and the inability to perform unpaid labor). Sensitivity analyses confirmed the importance of including non-healthcare costs for long-term follow-up. The subgroup analyses showed that patients who did not return home after discharge, and those with moderate to severe stroke symptoms, incurred significantly more costs compared to patients who went directly home and those who reported fewer symptoms. QoL was stable over time except for the stroke patients over 75 years of age, where a significant and clinically meaningful decrease in QoL over time was observed. (4) Conclusions: The non-healthcare costs have a substantial impact on the first- and second-year total societal costs post-stroke. Therefore, to obtain a complete picture of all the relevant costs related to a stroke, a societal perspective with a follow-up of at least two years is highly recommended. Additionally, more research is needed to investigate the decline in QoL found in stroke patients above the age of 75 years.

Health State Utility Values in People With Stroke: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Background Health state utility values are commonly used to provide summary measures of health-related quality of life in studies of stroke. Contemporaneous summaries are needed as a benchmark to contextualize future observational studies and inform the effectiveness of interventions aimed at improving post-stroke quality of life. Methods and Results We conducted a systematic search of the literature using Medline, EMBASE, and Web of Science from January 1995 until October 2020 using search terms for stroke, health-related quality of life, and indirect health utility metrics. We calculated pooled estimates of health utility values for EQ-5D-3L, EQ-5D-5L, AQoL, HUI2, HUI3, 15D, and SF-6D using random effects models. For the EQ-5D-3L we conducted stratified meta-analyses and meta-regression by key subgroups. We screened 14 251 abstracts and 111 studies met our inclusion criteria (sample size range 11 to 12 447). EQ-5D-3L was reported in 78% of studies (study n=87; patient n=56 976). The pooled estimate for EQ-5D-3L at ≥3 months following stroke was 0.65 (95% CI, 0.63-0.67), which was ≈20% below population norms. There was high heterogeneity (I2>90%) between studies, and estimates differed by study size, case definition of stroke, and country of study. Women, older individuals, those with hemorrhagic stroke, and patients prior to discharge had lower pooled EQ-5D-3L estimates. Conclusions Pooled estimates of health utility for stroke survivors were substantially below population averages. We provide reference values for health utility in stroke to support future clinical and economic studies and identify subgroups with lower healthy utility. Registration URL: https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/. Unique Identifier: CRD42020215942.

Economic Evaluation of Transcatheter Aortic Valve Replacement Compared to Surgical Aortic Valve Replacement in Chinese Intermediate-Risk Patients

Background

Aortic stenosis (AS) is a severe disease that causes heart failure and sudden death. Transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) and surgical aortic valve replacement (SAVR) are both recommended for patients with intermediate surgical risk, but the cost-effectiveness of TAVR compared to SAVR in China has not been investigated.

Methods

A combined decision tree and Markov model were conducted to compare the cost-effectiveness of TAVR versus SAVR with a 5-year simulation. The primary outcome was the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), a ratio of incremental costs to incremental quality-adjusted life-year (QALY). One-way sensitive analysis and probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) were conducted to test the robustness of the model.

Results

After a simulation of 5 years, the costs of TAVR and SAVR were 54,573 and 35,002 USD, respectively, and the corresponding effectiveness was 2.826 versus 2.712 QALY, respectively. The ICER for the TAVR versus SAVR comparison was 170,056 USD/QALY, which was three times higher than the per capita gross domestic product (GDP) in China. One-way sensitive analysis showed that the cost of the TAVR device impacted the ICER. The TAVR could be cost-effective only in the case where its cost is lowered to 29,766 USD.

Conclusion

TAVR is currently not cost-effective in China, but it could be cost-effective with a reduction of costs to 29,766 USD, which is approximately 65% of the current price.

Cost-effective analysis of mechanical thrombectomy (MT) in patients with poor baseline modified Rankin Score (mRS)

Mechanical thrombectomy (MT) has been established as a standard of care for patients with acute ischemic stroke for the past five years. However, the direct benefits of this treatment in patients with baseline disability remains unclear. This study aims to elucidate the cost impact of performing MT on patients with moderate-to-severe baseline disability to work towards an optimized system of care for acute ischemic stroke. We developed a Markov economic model with a life-time horizon analysis of costs associated with mechanical thrombectomy in patients grouped on baseline disability as defined by modified Rankin Score. Our clinical and economic data is based on an American payer perspective. Our results identified a marginal cost-effective ratio (mCER) of $18,835.00 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) when mechanical thrombectomy is reserved as a treatment only for patients with no-to-minimal baseline disability as compared to those with any level of baseline disability. Our results provide a framework for these future studies and highlight key sectors that drive cost in the surgical treatment and life-long care of patients with acute ischemic stroke.

Smoking cessation medicines and e-cigarettes: a systematic review, network meta-analysis and cost-effectiveness analysis

BACKGROUND

Cigarette smoking is one of the leading causes of early death. Varenicline [Champix (UK), Pfizer Europe MA EEIG, Brussels, Belgium; or Chantix (USA), Pfizer Inc., Mission, KS, USA], bupropion (Zyban; GlaxoSmithKline, Brentford, UK) and nicotine replacement therapy are licensed aids for quitting smoking in the UK. Although not licensed, e-cigarettes may also be used in English smoking cessation services. Concerns have been raised about the safety of these medicines and e-cigarettes.

OBJECTIVES

To determine the clinical effectiveness, safety and cost-effectiveness of smoking cessation medicines and e-cigarettes.

DESIGN

Systematic reviews, network meta-analyses and cost-effectiveness analysis informed by the network meta-analysis results.

SETTING

Primary care practices, hospitals, clinics, universities, workplaces, nursing or residential homes.

PARTICIPANTS

Smokers aged ≥ 18 years of all ethnicities using UK-licensed smoking cessation therapies and/or e-cigarettes.

INTERVENTIONS

Varenicline, bupropion and nicotine replacement therapy as monotherapies and in combination treatments at standard, low or high dose, combination nicotine replacement therapy and e-cigarette monotherapies.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Effectiveness - continuous or sustained abstinence. Safety - serious adverse events, major adverse cardiovascular events and major adverse neuropsychiatric events.

DATA SOURCES

Ten databases, reference lists of relevant research articles and previous reviews. Searches were performed from inception until 16 March 2017 and updated on 19 February 2019.

REVIEW METHODS

Three reviewers screened the search results. Data were extracted and risk of bias was assessed by one reviewer and checked by the other reviewers. Network meta-analyses were conducted for effectiveness and safety outcomes. Cost-effectiveness was evaluated using an amended version of the Benefits of Smoking Cessation on Outcomes model.

RESULTS

Most monotherapies and combination treatments were more effective than placebo at achieving sustained abstinence. Varenicline standard plus nicotine replacement therapy standard (odds ratio 5.75, 95% credible interval 2.27 to 14.90) was ranked first for sustained abstinence, followed by e-cigarette low (odds ratio 3.22, 95% credible interval 0.97 to 12.60), although these estimates have high uncertainty. We found effect modification for counselling and dependence, with a higher proportion of smokers who received counselling achieving sustained abstinence than those who did not receive counselling, and higher odds of sustained abstinence among participants with higher average dependence scores. We found that bupropion standard increased odds of serious adverse events compared with placebo (odds ratio 1.27, 95% credible interval 1.04 to 1.58). There were no differences between interventions in terms of major adverse cardiovascular events. There was evidence of increased odds of major adverse neuropsychiatric events for smokers randomised to varenicline standard compared with those randomised to bupropion standard (odds ratio 1.43, 95% credible interval 1.02 to 2.09). There was a high level of uncertainty about the most cost-effective intervention, although all were cost-effective compared with nicotine replacement therapy low at the £20,000 per quality-adjusted life-year threshold. E-cigarette low appeared to be most cost-effective in the base case, followed by varenicline standard plus nicotine replacement therapy standard. When the impact of major adverse neuropsychiatric events was excluded, varenicline standard plus nicotine replacement therapy standard was most cost-effective, followed by varenicline low plus nicotine replacement therapy standard. When limited to licensed interventions in the UK, nicotine replacement therapy standard was most cost-effective, followed by varenicline standard.

LIMITATIONS

Comparisons between active interventions were informed almost exclusively by indirect evidence. Findings were imprecise because of the small numbers of adverse events identified.

CONCLUSIONS

Combined therapies of medicines are among the most clinically effective, safe and cost-effective treatment options for smokers. Although the combined therapy of nicotine replacement therapy and varenicline at standard doses was the most effective treatment, this is currently unlicensed for use in the UK.

FUTURE WORK

Researchers should examine the use of these treatments alongside counselling and continue investigating the long-term effectiveness and safety of e-cigarettes for smoking cessation compared with active interventions such as nicotine replacement therapy.

STUDY REGISTRATION

This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42016041302.

FUNDING

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 25, No. 59. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Carotid Endarterectomy remains cost-effective for the surgical management of carotid stenosis

BACKGROUND

Transcarotid arterial revascularization (TCAR) has gained popularity as an alternative to carotid endarterectomy (CEA) and transfemoral carotid artery stenting (TFCAS) potentially combining the benefits of a minimally invasive approach with a lower risk of procedural stroke compared to TFCAS. Emerging evidence shows TCAR to have excellent perioperative outcomes. However, the cost effectiveness of TCAR is not well understood.

METHODS

Incorporating data from Carotid Revascularization Endarterectomy vs. Stenting Trial (CREST), the Vascular Quality Initiative Surveillance Project, and local cost data, we compared the cost-effectiveness of these three treatment modalities (TFCAS, CEA, and TCAR) for both symptomatic and asymptomatic carotid stenosis using a Markov state-transition model to quantify lifetime costs in $US and effectiveness in quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). We accounted for perioperative stroke and MI as well as long-term risks of stroke and restenosis. Based on CREST, we assumed a start age of 69 and a cost-effectiveness acceptability threshold of $100,000/QALY gained. Sensitivity analyses were performed.

RESULTS

In the base case scenario, TCAR cost $160,642/QALY gained compared to CEA, greater than the frequently cited $100,000/QALY gained threshold. TFCAS was more expensive and less effective than other strategies, largely due to a greater periprocedural stroke risk. In one-way sensitivity analysis, if TCAR stroke risk was <0.9% (base case risk 1.4%), than it was economically favorable compared to CEA at its current procedural cost. Alternatively, if TCAR procedural costs were reduced by approximately $2000 (base case $15,182), it would also become economically favorable. In a probabilistic sensitivity analysis, varying all parameters simultaneously over distributions, CEA was favored in 80% of model iterations at $100,000/QALY, with TCAR favored in 19%.

CONCLUSIONS

At current cost and outcomes, TCAR does not meet a traditional cost-effectiveness threshold to replace CEA as the primary treatment modality for carotid stenosis. TFCAS is the least cost-effective strategy for carotid revascularization. Given these observations, TCAR should be limited to select patients, specifically those at high physiologic and anatomic risk from CEA. However, TCAR can become cost-effective if its cost is reduced. Given the current outcomes and cost, CEA remains the most cost-effective treatment for carotid revascularization.

Cost-Utility of Catheter Ablation for Atrial Fibrillation in Patients with Heart Failure: An Economic Evaluation

Background Recent trials comparing catheter ablation to medical therapy in patients with heart failure (HF) with symptomatic atrial fibrillation despite first-line management have demonstrated a reduction in adverse outcomes. We performed an economic evaluation to estimate the cost-utility of catheter ablation as second line therapy in patients with HF with reduced ejection fraction. Methods and Results A Markov model with health states of alive, dead, and alive with amiodarone toxicity was constructed, using the perspective of the Canadian healthcare payer. Patients in the alive states were at risk of HF and non-HF hospitalizations. Parameters were obtained from randomized trials and Alberta health system data for costs and outcomes. A lifetime time horizon was adopted, with discounting at 3.0% annually. Probabilistic and 1-way sensitivity analyses were performed. Costs are reported in 2018 Canadian dollars. A patient treated with catheter ablation experienced lifetime costs of $64 960 and 5.63 quality-adjusted life-years (QALY), compared with $49 865 and 5.18 QALYs for medical treatment. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was $35 360/QALY (95% CI, $21 518-77 419), with a 90% chance of being cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay threshold of $50 000/QALY. A minimum mortality reduction of 28%, or a minimum duration of benefit of >1 to 2 years was required for catheter ablation to be attractive at this threshold. Conclusions Catheter ablation is likely to be cost-effective as a second line intervention for patients with HF with symptomatic atrial fibrillation, with incremental cost-effectiveness ratio $35 360/QALY, as long as over half of the relative mortality benefit observed in extant trials is borne out in future studies.

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Direct Oral Anticoagulants Vs. Vitamin K Antagonists in the Elderly With Atrial Fibrillation: Insights From the Evidence in a Real-World Setting

Background: In the clinical setting, the economic benefits of direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) in elderly patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) remain unclear. This study aimed to estimate and compare the cost-effectiveness of DOACs (dabigatran, rivaroxaban, apixaban, and edoxaban) and vitamin K antagonists (VKAs; warfarin) in preventing stroke among AF patients aged >75 years in real-world practice. Methods: A Markov model with a 10-year span was constructed to estimate the long-term clinical and economic outcomes among AF patients aged >75 years treated with DOACs and warfarin. The study was populated with a hypothetical cohort of 10,000 AF patients aged >75 years. Probabilities of clinical outcomes were obtained from the pooled observational studies (OSs), comparing DOACs (dabigatran, rivaroxaban, apixaban, and edoxaban) with VKAs. Other model inputs, including the utilities and the costs, were all estimated from public sources and the published literature. The costs, quality-adjusted life-years (QAYLs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER) were estimated for each treatment strategy. Subgroup analyses of individual DOACs and the scenario analysis were performed. Uncertainty was evaluated by deterministic sensitivity analysis and probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA). Results: Compared to warfarin, DOACs were associated with a gain of 0.36 QALY at an additional cost of $15,234.65, resulting in an ICER of $42,318.47 per QALY. Sensitivity analysis revealed that the ICER was sensitive to the cost of DOACs. Direct oral anticoagulants also shifted from dominating to dominated status When their annual costs of DOACs were over $3,802.84 or the risk ratio of death compared to warfarin was over 1.077%/year. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) suggested that DOACs had a 53.83 and 90.7% probability of being cost-effective when the willingness-to-pay threshold was set at $50,000 and $100,000, respectively. Among all the four individual DOACs, edoxaban treatment was revealed as the preferred treatment strategy for the AF patients aged over 75 years by yielding the most significant health gain with the relatively low total cost. Conclusions: Despite the high risk for major bleeding in elderly patients with AF, DOACs are more cost-effective treatment options than warfarin in real-world practice. Edoxaban was the preferred treatment strategy among four kinds of DOACs for AF patients aged over 75 years. Furthermore, beyond their safety profiles, the treatment benefits of DOACs assumed greater relevance and importance in older adults.

Interrelationships between heath utility measurements, disease activity and psychological factors in Behçet's disease

OBJECTIVES

To measure health utilities Time Trade-Off (TTO) and Standard Gamble (SG) in Behcet's disease (BD), and explore the interrelationships with EQ-5D-5L, disease activity, depression, anxiety and fatigue.

METHODS

TTO, SG, EQ-5D-5L, EQ VAS, depression (PHQ-9), anxiety (GAD-7) and fatigue (MAF) questionnaires were administered to 103 adult BD patients. Disease activity was assessed using the Behçet's Disease Activity Index (BDAI).

RESULTS

Mean TTO was 0.72 ± SD 0.27, mean SG 0.70 ± SD 0.34, and mean EQ-5D-5L 0.519 ± SD 0.315. Moderate to severe depression was identified in 55.2%, moderate to severe anxiety in 35.1% and moderate to high fatigue in 97.7% patients. TTO correlated with SG (p < 0.01), EQ-5D-5L (p < 0.01) and negatively correlated with depression (p < 0.01), anxiety (p < 0.01) and fatigue (p < 0.01). Multiple linear regression showed SG was the only predictor of TTO (p = 0.002). Cluster analysis revealed one cluster where psychological factors rather than disease activity may have influenced TTO and SG scores.

CONCLUSION

TTO and SG show that BD patients would on average forgo 28% of their remaining life or run a 30% risk of death to avoid the condition. Complex interrelationships with depression, anxiety and fatigue appear to play an important role in their decision making.

A digital behaviour change intervention to increase booking and attendance at Stop Smoking Services: the MyWay feasibility RCT

Background

Smoking remains a leading cause of illness and preventable death. NHS Stop Smoking Services increase quitting, but, as access is in decline, cost-effective interventions are needed that promote these services. StopApp™ (Coventry University, Coventry, UK) is designed to increase booking and attendance at Stop Smoking Services.

Design

A two-arm feasibility randomised controlled trial of StopApp (intervention) compared with standard promotion and referral to Stop Smoking Services (control) was conducted to assess recruitment, attrition and health equity of the design, alongside health economic and qualitative process evaluations.

Setting

Smokers recruited via general practitioners, community settings and social media.

Participants

Smokers aged ≥ 16 years were recruited in one local authority. Participants had to live or work within the local authority area, and there was a recruitment target of 120 participants.

Interventions

StopApp to increase booking and attendance at Stop Smoking Services.

Main outcome measures

Participants completed baseline measures and follow-up at 2 months post randomisation entirely online. Objective data on the use of Stop Smoking Services were collected from participating Stop Smoking Services, and age groups, sex, ethnicity and socioeconomic status in baseline recruits and follow-up completers/non-completers were assessed for equity.

Results

Eligible participants (n = 123) were recruited over 116 days, with good representation of lower socioeconomic status groups; black, Asian and minority ethnic groups; and all age groups. Demographic profiles of follow-up completers and non-completers were broadly similar. The attrition rate was 51.2%, with loss to follow-up lowest in the social media setting (n = 24/61; 39.3%) and highest in the general practitioner setting (n = 21/26; 80.8%). Most measures had < 5% missing data. Social media represented the most effective and cost-efficient recruitment method. In a future, definitive, multisite trial with recruitment driven by social media, our data suggest that recruiting ≥ 1500 smokers over 12 months is feasible. Service data showed that five bookings for the Stop Smoking Services were scheduled using StopApp, of which two did not attend. Challenges with data access were identified. A further five participants in the intervention arm self-reported booking and accessing Stop Smoking Services outside StopApp compared with two control arm participants. Event rate calculations for the intervention were 8% (Stop Smoking Services data), 17% (including self-reports) and 3.5% from control arm self-reports. A conservative effect size of 6% is estimated for a definitive full trial. A sample size of 840 participants would be required to detect an effect for the primary outcome measure of booking a Stop Smoking Services appointment in a full randomised controlled trial. The process evaluation found that participants were satisfied with the research team contact, study methods and provision of e-vouchers. Staff interviews revealed positive and negative experiences of the trial and suggestions for improvements, including encouraging smokers to take part.

Conclusion

This feasibility randomised controlled trial found that, with recruitment driven wholly or mainly by social media, it is possible to recruit and retain sufficient smokers to assess the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of StopApp. The study methods and measures were found to be acceptable and equitable, but accessing Stop Smoking Services data about booking, attendance and quit dates was a challenge. A full trial may be feasible if service data are accessible. This will require careful planning with data controllers and a targeted social media campaign for recruitment. Changes to some study measures are needed to avoid missing data, including implementation of a more intensive follow-up data collection process.

Future work

We plan a full, definitive randomised controlled trial if the concerns around data access can be resolved, with adaptations to the recruitment and retention strategy.

Limitations

Our trial had high attrition and problems with collecting Stop Smoking Services data, which resulted in a reliance on self-reporting.

Trial registration

Research Registry: 3995. The trial was registered on 18 April 2018.

Funding

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Public Health Research programme and will be published in full in Public Health Research; Vol. 9, No. 5. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Configuration of vascular services: a multiple methods research programme

Background

Vascular services is changing rapidly, having emerged as a new specialty with its own training and specialised techniques. This has resulted in the need for reconfiguration of services to provide adequate specialist provision and accessible and equitable services.

Objectives

To identify the effects of service configuration on practice, resource use and outcomes. To model potential changes in configuration. To identify and/or develop electronic data collection tools for collecting patient-reported outcome measures and other clinical information. To evaluate patient preferences for aspects of services other than health-related quality of life.

Design

This was a multiple methods study comprising multiple systematic literature reviews; the development of a new outcome measure for users of vascular services (the electronic Personal Assessment Questionnaire – Vascular) based on the reviews, qualitative studies and psychometric evaluation; a trade-off exercise to measure process utilities; Hospital Episode Statistics analysis; and the development of individual disease models and a metamodel of service configuration.

Setting

Specialist vascular inpatient services in England.

Data sources

Modelling and Hospital Episode Statistics analysis for all vascular inpatients in England from 2006 to 2018. Qualitative studies and electronic Personal Assessment Questionnaire – Vascular evaluation with vascular patients from the Sheffield area. The trade-off studies were based on a societal sample from across England.

Interventions

The data analysis, preference studies and modelling explored the effect of different potential arrangements for service provision on the resource use, workload and outcomes for all interventions in the three main areas of inpatient vascular treatment: peripheral arterial disease, abdominal aortic aneurysm and carotid artery disease. The electronic Personal Assessment Questionnaire – Vascular was evaluated as a potential tool for clinical data collection and outcome monitoring.

Main outcome measures

Systematic reviews assessed quality and psychometric properties of published outcome measures for vascular disease and the relationship between volume and outcome in vascular services. The electronic Personal Assessment Questionnaire – Vascular development considered face and construct validity, test–retest reliability and responsiveness. Models were validated using case studies from previous reconfigurations and comparisons with Hospital Episode Statistics data. Preference studies resulted in estimates of process utilities for aneurysm treatment and for travelling distances to access services.

Results

Systematic reviews provided evidence of an association between increasing volume of activity and improved outcomes for peripheral arterial disease, abdominal aortic aneurysm and carotid artery disease. Reviews of existing patient-reported outcome measures did not identify suitable condition-specific tools for incorporation in the electronic Personal Assessment Questionnaire – Vascular. Reviews of qualitative evidence, primary qualitative studies and a Delphi exercise identified the issues to be incorporated into the electronic Personal Assessment Questionnaire – Vascular, resulting in a questionnaire with one generic and three disease-specific domains. After initial item reduction, the final version has 55 items in eight scales and has acceptable psychometric properties. The preference studies showed strong preference for endovascular abdominal aortic aneurysm treatment (willingness to trade up to 0.135 quality-adjusted life-years) and for local services (up to 0.631 quality-adjusted life-years). A simulation model with a web-based interface was developed, incorporating disease-specific models for abdominal aortic aneurysm, peripheral arterial disease and carotid artery disease. This predicts the effects of specified reconfigurations on workload, resource use, outcomes and cost-effectiveness. Initial exploration suggested that further reconfiguration of services in England to accomplish high-volume centres would result in improved outcomes, within the bounds of cost-effectiveness usually considered acceptable in the NHS.

Limitations

The major source of evidence to populate the models was Hospital Episode Statistics data, which have limitations owing to the complexity of the data, deficiencies in the coding systems and variations in coding practice. The studies were not able to address all of the potential barriers to change where vascular services are not compliant with current NHS recommendations.

Conclusions

There is evidence of potential for improvement in the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of vascular services through further centralisation of sites where major vascular procedures are undertaken. Preferences for local services are strong, and this may be addressed through more integrated services, with a range of services being provided more locally. The use of a web-based tool for the collection of clinical data and patient-reported outcome measures is feasible and can provide outcome data for clinical use and service evaluation.

Future work

Further evaluation of the economic models in real-world situations where local vascular service reconfiguration is under consideration and of the barriers to change where vascular services do not meet NHS recommendations for service configuration is needed. Further work on the electronic Personal Assessment Questionnaire – Vascular is required to assess its acceptability and usefulness in clinical practice and to develop appropriate report formats for clinical use and service evaluation. Further studies to assess the implications of including non-health-related preferences for care processes, and location of services, in calculations of cost-effectiveness are required.

Study registration

This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42016042570, CRD42016042573, CRD42016042574, CRD42016042576, CRD42016042575, CRD42014014850, CRD42015023877 and CRD42015024820.

Funding

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Programme Grants for Applied Research programme and will be published in full in Programme Grants for Applied Research; Vol. 9, No. 5. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Cost-effectiveness of combined catheter ablation and left atrial appendage closure for symptomatic atrial fibrillation in patients with high stroke and bleeding risk

BACKGROUND

Combined catheter ablation (CA) and left atrial appendage closure (LAAC) have been proposed for management of symptomatic atrial fibrillation (AF) in patients with high stroke and bleeding risk. We assessed the cost-effectiveness of combined CA and LAAC compared with CA and standard oral anticoagulation (OAC) in symptomatic AF.

METHODS

A Markov model was developed to assess total costs, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio among 2 post-CA strategies: (1) standard OAC and (2) LAAC (combined CA and LAAC procedure). The base-case used a 10-year time horizon and consisted of a hypothetical cohort of patients aged 65 years with symptomatic AF, with high thrombotic (CHA₂DS₂-VASc = 3) and bleeding risk (HAS-BLED = 3), and planned for AF ablation. Values for transition probabilities, utilities, and costs were derived from the literature. Costs were converted to 2020 US dollars. Half-cycle correction was applied, and costs and QALYs were discounted at 3% annually. Sensitivity analyses were performed for significant variables and scenario analyses for higher embolic risk.

RESULTS

In the base-case cohort of 10,000 patients followed for 10 years, total costs for the LAAC strategy were $29,027 and for OAC strategy were $27,896. The LAAC strategy was associated with 122 fewer disabling strokes and 203 fewer intracranial hemorrhages per 10,000 patients compared with the OAC strategy. The LAAC strategy had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $11,072/QALY. In sensitivity analyses, although cost-effectiveness was highly dependent on the risk of intracranial hemorrhage in the LAAC strategy and the cost of the combined procedure, LAAC was superior to OAC under the most circumstances. Scenario analyses demonstrated that the combined procedure was more cost-effective in patients with higher stroke risk.

CONCLUSIONS

In symptomatic AF patients with high stroke and bleeding risk who are planned for CA, the combined CA and LAAC procedure may be a cost-effective therapeutic option and be more beneficial to patients with CHA₂DS₂-VASc risk score ≥3.

A Meta-Regression Analysis of Utility Weights for Breast Cancer: The Power of Patients' Experience

To summarize utility estimates of breast cancer and to assess the relative impacts of study characteristics on predicting breast cancer utilities. We searched Medline, Embase, RISS, and KoreaMed from January 1996 to April 2019 to find literature reporting utilities for breast cancer. Thirty-five articles were identified, reporting 224 utilities. A hierarchical linear model was used to conduct a meta-regression that included disease stages, assessment methods, respondent type, age of the respondents, and scale bounds as explanatory variables. The utility for early and late-stage breast cancer, as estimated by using the time-tradeoff with the scales anchored by death to perfect health with non-patients, were 0.742 and 0.525, respectively. The severity of breast cancer, assessment method, and respondent type were significant predictors of utilities, but the age of the respondents and bounds of the scale were not. Patients who experienced the health states valued 0.142 higher than did non-patients (P <0.001). Besides the disease stage, the respondent type had the highest impact on breast cancer utility.

Cost-Effectiveness of Obstructive Sleep Apnea Screening and Treatment Before Catheter Ablation for Symptomatic Atrial Fibrillation

Background: Although management of obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) has been recommended to improve outcomes of catheter ablation (CA) in patients with symptomatic atrial fibrillation (AF), the most cost-effective way of preprocedural OSA screening is undetermined. This study assessed the cost-effectiveness of OSA management before CA for symptomatic AF.

Methods and Results: A Markov model was developed to assess the cost-effectiveness of 3 OSA detection strategies before CA: no screening; Type 3 portable monitor (PM)-guided screening; and polysomnography (PSG)-guided screening. The target population consisted of a hypothetical cohort of patients aged 65 years with symptomatic AF, with 50% prevalence of OSA. We used a 5-year horizon, with sensitivity analyses for significant variables and scenario analyses for lower and higher OSA prevalence (30% and 70%, respectively). In the base-case, both types of OSA screening were dominant (less costly and more effective) relative to no screening. Although PSG-guided management was more effective than PM-guided management, it was more costly and therefore did not show clear benefit. These findings were replicated in cohorts with lower and higher OSA risks.

Conclusions: OSA screening before CA is cost-effective in patients with symptomatic AF, with PM screening being the most cost-effective. Physicians should consider OSA management using this simple tool in the decision making for treatment of symptomatic AF.

Cost-effectiveness of Platelet Function-Guided Strategy with Clopidogrel or Ticagrelor

Some patients treated with dual antiplatelet therapy (DAPT) following acute coronary syndrome (ACS) can still exhibit heightened residual platelet reactivity (HRPR), which is potentially linked to adverse vascular outcomes. Better tailored DAPT strategies are needed to address this medical need. Aim: To assess the cost-effectiveness of guided DAPT with clopidogrel or ticagrelor in addition to aspirin when using VerifyNow P2Y₁₂ testing in post-ACS patients. Methods: The costs were calculated per 1,000 patients aged >55 years. It was assumed that all patients received either generic clopidogrel or ticagrelor for 1 year, and underwent VerifyNow P2Y₁₂ assay testing before DAPT maintenance. Results: Guided DAPT will prevent five more MIs and six more deaths per 1,000 patients than a standard prescription of generic clopidogrel. The total predictive value of costs per patient is 32% lower if a guided strategy is used than if ticagrelor is given to all patients. Conclusion: Assessment of heightened residual platelet reactivity with P2Y₁₂ assay in triaging DAPT post-ACS patients for 1 year is a cost-effective strategy that would reduce financial burden compared to routine administration of more expensive antiplatelet agents.

MRI-guided pulmonary vein isolation for atrial fibrillation: what is good enough? An early health technology assessment

Next to anticoagulation, pulmonary vein isolation (PVI) is the most important interventional procedure in the treatment of atrial fibrillation (AF). Despite widespread clinical application of this therapy, patients often require multiple procedures to reach clinical success. In contrast to conventional imaging modalities, MRI allows direct visualisation of the ablation lesion. Therefore, the use of real-time MRI to guide cardiac electrophysiology procedures may increase clinical effectiveness. An essential aspect, from a decision-making point of view, is the effect on costs and the potential cost-effectiveness of new technologies. Generally, health technology assessment (HTA) studies are performed when innovations are close to clinical application. However, early stage HTA can inform users, researchers and funders about the ultimate clinical and economic potential of a future innovation. Ultimately, this can guide funding allocation. In this study, we performed an early HTA evaluate MRI-guided PVIs.

Methods

We performed an economic evaluation using a decision tree with a time-horizon of 1 year. We calculated the clinical effectiveness (defined as the proportion of patients that is long-term free of AF after a single procedure) required for MRI-guided PVI to be cost-effective compared with conventional treatment.

Results

Depending on the cost-effectiveness threshold (willingness to pay for one additional quality-of-life adjusted life year (QALY), interventional MRI (iMRI) guidance for PVI can be cost-effective if clinical effectiveness is 69.8% (at €80 000/QALY) and 77.1% (at €20 000/QALY), compared with 64% for fluoroscopy-guided procedures.

Conclusion

Using an early HTA, we established a clinical effectiveness threshold for interventional MRI-guided PVIs that can inform a clinical implementation strategy. If crucial technologies are developed, it seems plausible that iMRI-guided PVIs will be able to reach this threshold.

Cost Effectiveness of Assessing Ultrasound Plaque Characteristics to Risk Stratify Asymptomatic Patients With Carotid Stenosis

Background

Imaging may play an important role in identifying high‐risk plaques in patients who have carotid disease and who could benefit from surgical revascularization. We sought to evaluate the cost effectiveness of a decision‐making rule based on the ultrasound imaging assessment of plaque echolucency in patients with asymptomatic carotid stenosis.

Methods and Results

We used a decision‐analytic model to project lifetime quality‐adjusted life years and costs for 5 stroke prevention strategies: (1) medical therapy only; (2) revascularization if both plaque echolucency and stenosis progression to >90% are present; (3) revascularization only if plaque echolucency is present; (4) revascularization only if stenosis progression >90% is present; or (5) either plaque echolucency or stenosis progression is present. Risks of clinical events, costs, and quality‐of‐life values were estimated based on published sources and the analysis was conducted from a healthcare system perspective for asymptomatic patients with 70% to 89% carotid stenosis at presentation. Patients who did not undergo revascularization had the highest stroke events (17.6%) and lowest life‐years (8.45), while those who underwent revascularization on the basis of either presence of plaque echolucency on ultrasound or progression of carotid stenosis had the lowest stroke events (12.0%) and longest life‐years (14.41). The either plaque echolucency or progression‐based revascularization group had an incremental cost‐effectiveness ratio of $110 000/quality‐adjusted life years compared with the plaque echolucency‐based strategy, which had an incremental cost‐effectiveness ratio of $29 000/quality‐adjusted life years compared with the joint echolucency and progression‐based strategy.

Conclusions

Plaque echolucency on ultrasound can be a cost‐effective tool to identify patients with asymptomatic carotid artery stenosis most likely to benefit from carotid endarterectomy.

Cost-effectiveness of percutaneous closure of a patent foramen ovale compared with medical management in patients with a cryptogenic stroke: from the US payer perspective

Aims: To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of percutaneous patent foramen ovale (PFO) closure, from a US payer perspective. Lower rates of recurrent ischemic stroke have been documented following percutaneous PFO closure in properly selected patients. Stroke in patients aged <60 years is particularly interesting because this population is typically at peak economic productivity and vulnerable to prolonged disability. Materials and methods: A Markov model comprising six health states (Stable after index stroke, Transient ischemic attack, Post-Transient Ischemic Attack, Clinical ischemic stroke, Post-clinical ischemic stroke, and Death) was constructed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of PFO closure in combination with medical management versus medical management alone. The base-case model employed a 5-year time-horizon, with transition probabilities, clinical inputs, costs, and utility values ascertained from published and national costing sources. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was evaluated per US guidelines, utilizing a discount rate of 3.0%. Results: At 5 years, overall costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) obtained from PFO closure compared with medical management were $16,323 vs $7,670 and 4.18 vs 3.77, respectively. At 5 years, PFO closure achieved an ICER of $21,049, beneficially lower than the conventional threshold of $50,000. PFO closure reached cost-effectiveness at 2.3 years (ICER = $47,145). Applying discount rates of 0% and 6% had a negligible impact on base-case model findings. Furthermore, PFO closure was 95.4% likely to be cost-effective, with a willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of $50,000 and a 5-year time horizon. Limitations: From a cost perspective, our economic model employed a US patient sub-population, so cost data may not extrapolate to other non-US stroke populations. Conclusion: Percutaneous PFO closure plus medical management represents a cost-effective approach for lowering the risk of recurrent stroke compared with medical management alone.

A Canadian cost-effectiveness analysis of SAPIEN 3 transcatheter aortic valve implantation compared with surgery, in intermediate and high-risk severe aortic stenosis patients

Background and objectives: The treatment of severe aortic stenosis requires replacement of the defective native valve. Traditionally, this has been done via surgery, but in the last 10 years, transcatheter techniques have emerged. Transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) is a less invasive option compared to surgical aortic valve replacement (SAVR), and this study evaluates the cost-effectiveness of TAVI versus SAVR in intermediate and high surgical risk patients in Canada. Methods: A Markov model was used to project the costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained for TAVI using the SAPIEN 3 valve and SAVR over a 15-year time horizon. The PARTNER I and II studies were used to populate the model in terms of survival, clinical event rates and quality of life over time. The costs of TAVI with SAPIEN 3 and SAVR as well as the costs associated with events included in the model were derived from Canadian administrative and literature data. Costs were expressed in 2018 Canadian dollars and all future costs and QALYs were discounted at a rate of 1.5% annually. Probabilistic and one-way sensitivity analyses were conducted. Results: The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of TAVI using the SAPIEN 3 valve compared to surgery were $28,154 per QALY gained in intermediate risk patients and $17,237 per QALY gained in high-risk patients. The results of the probabilistic analyses indicated that at willingness-to-pay threshold of $50,000 per QALY gained, the probability of TAVI to be cost-effective was greater than 0.9 in both intermediate-risk and high-risk patients. Sensitivity analyses showed the results were most sensitive to the time horizon used. Conclusion: TAVI using the SAPIEN 3 valve is highly likely to be cost-effective in Canadian patients with severe aortic stenosis who are at intermediate and high surgical risk.

Frequentist and Bayesian meta-regression of health state utilities for multiple myeloma incorporating systematic review and analysis of individual patient data

This analysis presents the results of a systematic review for health state utilities in multiple myeloma, as well as analysis of over 9,000 observations taken from registry and trial data. The 27 values identified from 13 papers are then synthesised in a frequentist nonparametric bootstrap model and a Bayesian meta-regression. Results were similar between the frequentist and Bayesian models with low utility on disease diagnosis (approximately 0.55), raising to approximately 0.65 on first line treatment and declining slightly with each subsequent line. Stem cell transplant was also found to be a significant predictor of health-related quality of life in both individual patient data and meta-regression, with an increased utility of approximately 0.06 across different models. The work presented demonstrates the feasibility of Bayesian methods for utility meta-regression, whilst also presenting an internally consistent set of data from the analysis of registry data. To facilitate easy updating of the data and model, data extraction tables and model code are provided as Data S1. The main limitations of the model relate to the low number of studies available, particularly in highly pretreated patients.

Evaluating the cost-effectiveness of percutaneous closure of a patent foramen ovale versus medical management in patients with a cryptogenic stroke: from the UK payer perspective

AIMS

Percutaneous closure of a patent foramen ovale (PFO) is known to lower the risk of recurrent stroke in patients with a cryptogenic stroke. However, the economic implications of transcatheter PFO closure are less well known. From a UK payer perspective, a detailed economic appraisal of PFO closure was performed for prevention of recurrent ischemic stroke in patients with a PFO who had experienced a cryptogenic stroke.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A Markov cohort model was constructed using a 5-year time-horizon with a patient mean age of 45.2 years, reflecting the characteristics reported in the REDUCE trial. Transition probabilities, clinical inputs, costs, and utility values were ascertained from published and national costing sources. Total costs, incremental costs, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were calculated, utilizing a discount rate of 3.5%. A range of univariate and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were also performed.

RESULTS

When applying a willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of £20,000/QALY in accordance with NICE guidelines, PFO closure compared with antiplatelet therapy alone showed a beneficial cost/QALY of £18,584, attained at 4 years. Applying discount rates of 0% and 6% had a negligible effect on the base-case model findings. PFO closure demonstrated a 76.9% probability of being cost-effective at a WTP threshold of £20,000/QALY at a 5-year time-horizon.

LIMITATIONS

This model focused specifically on UK stroke patients and typically enrolled young (mean age <65 years old) patients. Hence, caution should be taken when comparing data vs non-UK populations, and it remains unclear how older patients might have affected cost-effectiveness findings, as the risk of paradoxical embolism can persist as patients age.

CONCLUSION

Percutaneous closure of a PFO is cost-effective compared with antiplatelet therapy alone, underlining the economic benefits potentially afforded by this treatment in selected patients.

Stroke in the 21st Century: A Snapshot of the Burden, Epidemiology, and Quality of Life

Stroke is ranked as the second leading cause of death worldwide with an annual mortality rate of about 5.5 million. Not only does the burden of stroke lie in the high mortality but the high morbidity also results in up to 50% of survivors being chronically disabled. Thus stroke is a disease of immense public health importance with serious economic and social consequences. The public health burden of stroke is set to rise over future decades because of demographic transitions of populations, particularly in developing countries. This paper provides an overview of stroke in the 21^st century from a public health perspective.

Cost-Effectiveness of PCSK9 Inhibitor Plus Statin in Patients With Triple-Vessel Coronary Artery Disease in Japan

BACKGROUND

The addition of a proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 (PCSK9) inhibitor to statin therapy reduces the rate of cardiovascular events. This study examined the cost-effectiveness of PCSK9 inhibitor+statin compared with standard therapy (statin monotherapy) in the treatment of triple-vessel coronary artery disease (CAD) in Japan.

METHODS AND RESULTS

A Markov model was applied to assess the costs and benefits associated with PCSK9 inhibitor+statin over a projected 30-year period from the perspective of a public healthcare payer in Japan. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), expressed as the quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), was estimated. The effects on survival and numbers of events were based on the FOURIER trial and the CREDO Kyoto registry. The ICER of PCSK9 inhibitor+statin over standard therapy was 13.5 million (95% confidence interval 7.6-23.5 million) Japanese Yen (JPY) per QALY gained for triple-vessel CAD. The probability of the cost-effectiveness of PCSK9 inhibitor+statin vs. standard therapy was 0.0008% at a cost-effectiveness threshold of 5 million JPY. In patients with poorly controlled familial hypercholesterolemia (FH) with triple-vessel CAD, the ICER was 3.4 million JPY per QALY gained.

CONCLUSIONS

PCSK9 inhibitor plus statin did not show good cost-effectiveness for triple-vessel CAD; however, it showed good cost-effectiveness for patients with triple-vessel CAD and poorly controlled FH in Japan.

Are guidelines for measurement of quality of life contrary to patient-centred care?

AIMS

A discussion of how quality-adjusted life years are used to inform resource allocation decisions and highlight how assumptions underpinning the measurement of quality of life are contrary to the principles of patient-centred care.

BACKGROUND

Cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs) can provide influential guidance for health resource allocation, particularly in the context of a budget-constrained public health insurance plan. Most national economic guideline bodies recommend that quality-adjusted life year weights for CEA be elicited indirectly (public preferences). This has potentially important implications for healthcare provision and research, as it discounts the ability of a person experiencing an illness to describe how it affects their quality of life.

DESIGN

Discussion paper.

DATA SOURCES

Guidelines for the conduct of health economic evaluations, influential methodological and theoretical texts, and a review of PubMed conducted in April 2017.

IMPLICATIONS FOR NURSING

Nurses are increasingly interested in leveraging methods from health economics to aid in decision-making and advocacy. In this analysis, we highlight how taken-for-granted approaches to the measurement of quality of life may discount the experience of patients and lead to decisions that are contrary to the principles of patient-centred care. Nurses conducting or reading research using these methods should consider whether the approach used to measure the quality of life are appropriate for the population under consideration.

CONCLUSION

Since patient and public health preferences can differ in both magnitude and direction, guideline bodies should re-evaluate their partiality for public preferences in the reference case.

A Practical Guide to Conducting a Systematic Review and Meta-analysis of Health State Utility Values

Economic analysts are increasingly likely to rely on systematic reviews and meta-analyses of health state utility values to inform the parameter inputs of decision-analytic modelling-based economic evaluations. Beyond the context of economic evaluation, evidence from systematic reviews and meta-analyses of health state utility values can be used to inform broader health policy decisions. This paper provides practical guidance on how to conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis of health state utility values. The paper outlines a number of stages in conducting a systematic review, including identifying the appropriate evidence, study selection, data extraction and presentation, and quality and relevance assessment. The paper outlines three broad approaches that can be used to synthesise multiple estimates of health utilities for a given health state or condition, namely fixed-effect meta-analysis, random-effects meta-analysis and mixed-effects meta-regression. Each approach is illustrated by a synthesis of utility values for a hypothetical decision problem, and software code is provided. The paper highlights a number of methodological issues pertinent to the conduct of meta-analysis or meta-regression. These include the importance of limiting synthesis to 'comparable' utility estimates, for example those derived using common utility measurement approaches and sources of valuation; the effects of reliance on limited or poorly reported published data from primary utility assessment studies; the use of aggregate outcomes within analyses; approaches to generating measures of uncertainty; handling of median utility values; challenges surrounding the disentanglement of utility estimates collected serially within the context of prospective observational studies or prospective randomised trials; challenges surrounding the disentanglement of intervention effects; and approaches to measuring model validity. Areas of methodological debate and avenues for future research are highlighted.

The effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of plant sterol or stanol-enriched functional foods as a primary prevention strategy for people with cardiovascular disease risk in England: a modeling study

This study appraises the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of consumption of plant sterol-enriched margarine-type spreads for the prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in people with hypercholesterolemia in England, compared to a normal diet. A nested Markov model was employed using the perspective of the British National Health Service (NHS). Effectiveness outcomes were the 10-year CVD risk of individuals with mild (4-6 mmol/l) and high (above 6 mmol/l) cholesterol by gender and age groups (45-54, 55-64, 65-74, 75-85 years); CVD events avoided and QALY gains over 20 years. This study found that daily consumption of enriched spread reduces CVD risks more for men and older age groups. Assuming 50% compliance, 69 CVD events per 10,000 men and 40 CVD events per 10,000 women would be saved over 20 years. If the NHS pays the excess cost of enriched spreads, for the high-cholesterol group, the probability of enriched spreads being cost-effective is 100% for men aged over 64 years and women over 74, at £20,000/QALY threshold. Probabilities of cost-effectiveness are lower at younger ages, with mildly elevated cholesterol and over a 10-year time horizon. If consumers bear the full cost of enriched spreads, NHS savings arise from reduced CVD events.

Cost-effectiveness of mechanical thrombectomy for acute ischemic stroke: an Australian payer perspective

AIMS

The goal of this study was to assess the cost-effectiveness of mechanical thrombectomy (MT) for acute ischemic stroke (AIS) from an Australian payer perspective.

METHODS

This study used a Markov model that employed a life-time time horizon, modeling patients from symptom onset of stroke until end of life. Clinical efficacy and safety data were taken from an individual patient level data (IPD) meta-analysis of clinical studies. The treatment effect of MT compared to usual care was measured by changes in modified Rankin Score (mRS). Post-treatment mRS scores were used to determine short- and long-term stroke care costs. Treatment costs were modeled, with health state utility values determined by literature review. All analyses were conducted using Microsoft Excel.

RESULTS

In comparison to usual care, MT is associated with higher costs ($10,666 per patient) and additional quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) (0.8281 per patient), resulting in an incremental cost per QALY of $12,880. Sensitivity analyses demonstrated the reliability of the base case results across a range of assumptions. The higher cost associated with MT is, to an extent, offset by the cost savings resulting from lower stroke care costs due to improved patient outcomes. The life-time cost savings in terms of stroke care costs are estimated to be more than $8,000 per patient for patients who had received MT in combination with usual care.

LIMITATIONS

Stroke care costs based on patient disability/functional level were not available and were derived. As a consequence, long-term care costs for patients with poorer outcomes may be under-estimated. Patient outcomes at 90 days were extrapolated to a lifetime horizon, but this approach was supported by long-term evidence on stroke survival.

CONCLUSIONS

Mechanical thrombectomy is a cost-effective treatment option for AIS, with clinical benefits translating to short- and long-term cost benefits. This analysis supports rapid update of stroke care pathways to incorporate this therapy as a treatment option.

Comparing the Cost Effectiveness of Non-vitamin K Antagonist Oral Anticoagulants with Well-Managed Warfarin for Stroke Prevention in Atrial Fibrillation Patients at High Risk of Bleeding

BACKGROUND

Several studies have compared the cost effectiveness of non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants (NOACs) and warfarin using results from clinical trials evaluating NOACs. However, the time in therapeutic range (TTR) of warfarin groups ranged across clinical trials, and all were below the therapeutic goal of 70%. We compared the cost effectiveness of edoxaban 60 mg, apixaban 5 mg, dabigatran 150 mg, dabigatran 110 mg, rivaroxaban 20 mg, and well-managed warfarin with a TTR of 70% in preventing stroke among patients with atrial fibrillation at high risk of bleeding.

METHODS

For the six treatments, we used a Markov state-transition model to quantify lifetime costs in $US and effectiveness in quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). We simulated relative risk ratios of clinical events with each NOAC versus warfarin with a TTR of 70% using published regression models that predict how the incidence of thrombotic or hemorrhagic events changes for each unit change in TTR. We re-ran our analysis for two other estimates of TTR: 65 and 75%.

RESULTS

Treatment with edoxaban 60 mg cost $US127,520/QALY gained compared with warfarin with a TTR of 70% and cost $US41,860/QALY gained compared with warfarin with a TTR of 65%. However, warfarin with a TTR of 75% was more effective and less expensive than all NOACs. For three levels of TTR, apixaban 5 mg, dabigatran 150 mg, dabigatran 110 mg, and rivaroxaban 20 mg were dominated strategies.

CONCLUSIONS

The comparative cost effectiveness of edoxaban and warfarin is highly sensitive to TTR. At the $US100,000/QALY willingness-to-pay threshold, our results suggest that warfarin is the most cost-effective treatment for patients who can achieve a TTR of 70%.

Future cost-effectiveness and equity of the NHS Health Check cardiovascular disease prevention programme: Microsimulation modelling using data from Liverpool, UK

BACKGROUND

Aiming to contribute to prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD), the National Health Service (NHS) Health Check programme has been implemented across England since 2009. The programme involves cardiovascular risk stratification-at 5-year intervals-of all adults between the ages of 40 and 74 years, excluding any with preexisting vascular conditions (including CVD, diabetes mellitus, and hypertension, among others), and offers treatment to those at high risk. However, the cost-effectiveness and equity of population CVD screening is contested. This study aimed to determine whether the NHS Health Check programme is cost-effective and equitable in a city with high levels of deprivation and CVD.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

IMPACTNCD is a dynamic stochastic microsimulation policy model, calibrated to Liverpool demographics, risk factor exposure, and CVD epidemiology. Using local and national data, as well as drawing on health and social care disease costs and health-state utilities, we modelled 5 scenarios from 2017 to 2040: Scenario (A): continuing current implementation of NHS Health Check;Scenario (B): implementation 'targeted' toward areas in the most deprived quintile with increased coverage and uptake;Scenario (C): 'optimal' implementation assuming optimal coverage, uptake, treatment, and lifestyle change;Scenario (D): scenario A combined with structural population-wide interventions targeting unhealthy diet and smoking;Scenario (E): scenario B combined with the structural interventions as above. We compared all scenarios with a counterfactual of no-NHS Health Check. Compared with no-NHS Health Check, the model estimated cumulative incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) (discounted £/quality-adjusted life year [QALY]) to be 11,000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] -270,000 to 320,000) for scenario A, 1,500 (-91,000 to 100,000) for scenario B, -2,400 (-6,500 to 5,700) for scenario C, -5,100 (-7,400 to -3,200) for scenario D, and -5,000 (-7,400 to -3,100) for scenario E. Overall, scenario A is unlikely to become cost-effective or equitable, and scenario B is likely to become cost-effective by 2040 and equitable by 2039. Scenario C is likely to become cost-effective by 2030 and cost-saving by 2040. Scenarios D and E are likely to be cost-saving by 2021 and 2023, respectively, and equitable by 2025. The main limitation of the analysis is that we explicitly modelled CVD and diabetes mellitus only.

CONCLUSIONS

According to our analysis of the situation in Liverpool, current NHS Health Check implementation appears neither equitable nor cost-effective. Optimal implementation is likely to be cost-saving but not equitable, while targeted implementation is likely to be both. Adding structural policies targeting cardiovascular risk factors could substantially improve equity and generate cost savings.

Clinical Effect and Cost-Effectiveness of Screening for Asymptomatic Carotid Stenosis: A Markov Model

OBJECTIVE/BACKGROUND

The cost-effectiveness of screening depends on the cost of screening, prevalence of asymptomatic carotid artery stenosis (ACAS), and the potential effect of medical intervention in reducing the risk of stroke. The aim of the study was to determine the threshold values for these parameters in order for screening for ACAS to be cost-effective.

METHODS

The clinical effect and cost-effectiveness of ultrasound screening for ACAS with subsequent initiation of preventive therapy versus not screening was assessed in a Markov model with a lifetime perspective. Key parameters, including stroke risk, all cause mortality, and costs, were based on contemporary published data, population statistics, and data from an ongoing screening program in Uppsala county (population 300,000), Sweden. Prevalence of ACAS (2%) and the rate of best medical treatment (BMT; 40%) were based on data from a male Swedish population recently screened for ACAS. The required stroke risk reduction from BMT, incremental cost-efficiency ratio (ICER), absolute risk reduction for stroke (ARR), and number needed to screen (NNS) were calculated.

RESULTS

Screening was cost-effective at an ICER of €5744 per incremental quality adjusted life year (QALY) gained. ARR was 135 per 100,000 screened, NNS was 741, and QALYs gained were 6700 per 100,000 invited. At a willingness to pay (WTP) threshold of €50,000 per QALY the minimum required stroke risk reduction from BMT was 22%. The assumed degree of stroke risk reduction was the most important determinant of cost-efficiency.

CONCLUSION

A moderate (22%) reduction in the risk of stroke was required for an ACAS screening strategy to be cost-effective at a WTP of €50,000/QALY. Targeting populations with a higher prevalence of ACAS could further improve cost-efficiency.

Cost-Effectiveness of Statin Plus Eicosapentaenoic Acid Combination Therapy for Cardiovascular Disease Prevention in Japanese Patients With Hypercholesterolemia - An Analysis Based on the Japan Eicosapentaenoic Acid Lipid Intervention Study (JELIS)

BACKGROUND

The addition of eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA) to statin therapy has been shown to reduce cardiovascular events. This study examined the cost-effectiveness of EPA plus statin (EPA+statin) combination therapy compared with statin monotherapy for primary and secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in Japan.

METHODS AND RESULTS

A Markov model was applied to assess the costs and benefits associated with EPA+statin combination therapy over a projected 30-year period from the perspective of a public healthcare funder in Japan. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), expressed as quality-adjusted life-years (QALY), was estimated for primary prevention and secondary prevention of CVD in patients with hypercholesterolemia. Impact on survival and number of events were based on the Japan EPA Lipid Intervention Study. Sensitivity analyses examined the influence of various input parameters on costs and outcomes of treatment. ICER was ¥29.6 million per QALY gained in primary prevention and ¥5.5 million per QALY gained in secondary prevention. The probabilities that EPA+statin combination therapy would be cost-effective compared with statin monotherapy were 39% in primary prevention and 49% in secondary prevention at a cost-effectiveness threshold of ¥5 million per QALY gained. Sensitivity analyses showed that EPA was cost-effective in secondary prevention.

CONCLUSIONS

EPA+statin combination therapy showed acceptable cost-effectiveness for secondary prevention, but not primary prevention, of CVD in patients with hypercholesterolemia in Japan.

Cost effectiveness of focal impulse and rotor modulation guided ablation added to pulmonary vein isolation for atrial fibrillation

BACKGROUND

Although ablation with focal impulse and rotor modulation (FIRM), as an adjunct to pulmonary vein isolation (PVI), has been shown to decrease atrial fibrillation (AF) recurrence, cost-effectiveness has not been assessed.

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to evaluate the cost effectiveness of FIRM-guided ablation when added to PVI in a mixed AF population.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We used a Markov model to estimate the costs, quality-adjusted survival, and cost effectiveness of adding FIRM ablation to PVI. AF recurrence rates were based on 3-year data from the CONFIRM trial. Model inputs for event probabilities and utilities were obtained from literature review. Costs were based on Medicare reimbursement, wholesale acquisition costs, and literature review. Three-year total costs FIRM+PVI versus PVI alone were $27,686 versus $26,924. QALYs were 2.338 versus 2.316, respectively, resulting in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $34,452 per QALY gained. Most of the cost (65-81%) was related to the index ablation procedure. Lower AF recurrence generated cost offsets of $4,266, primarily due to a reduced need for medications and repeat ablation. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis demonstrated ICER below $100,000/QALY in 74% of simulations.

CONCLUSION

Based on data from the CONFIRM study, the addition of FIRM to PVI does have the potential to be cost-effective due to higher quality-adjusted life years and lower follow-up costs. Value is sensitive to the incremental reduction in AF recurrence, and FIRM may have the greatest economic value in patients with greater AF symptom severity. Results from ongoing randomized trials will provide further clarity.

Dabigatran versus rivaroxaban for the prevention of stroke and systemic embolism in atrial fibrillation in Canada

Canadian patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) in whom anticoagulation is appropriate have two new choices for anticoagulation for prevention of stroke and systemic embolism – dabigatran etexilate (dabigatran) and rivaroxaban. Based on the RE-LY and ROCKET AF trial results, we investigated the cost-effectiveness of dabigatran (twice daily dosing of 150 mg or 110 mg based on patient age) versus rivaroxaban from a Canadian payer perspective. A formal indirect treatment comparison (ITC) of dabigatran versus rivaroxaban was performed, using dabigatran clinical event rates from RE-LY for the safety-on-treatment population, adjusted to the ROCKET AF population. A previously described Markov model was modified to simulate anticoagulation treatment using ITC results as inputs. Model outputs included total costs, event rates, and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). The ITC found when compared to rivaroxaban, dabigatran had a lower risk of intracranial haemorrhage (ICH) (relative risk [RR] = 0.38; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.21 –0.67) and stroke (RR = 0.62; 95%CI 0.45–0.87). Over a lifetime horizon, the model found dabigatran-treated patients experienced fewer ICHs (0.33 dabigatran vs. 0.71 rivaroxaban) and ischaemic strokes (3.40 vs. 3.96) per 100 patient-years, and accrued more QALYs (6.17 vs. 6.01). Dabigatran-treated patients had lower acute care and long-term follow-up costs per patient ($52,314 vs. $53,638) which more than offset differences in drug costs ($7,299 vs. $6,128). In probabilistic analysis, dabigatran had high probability of being the most cost-effective therapy at common thresholds of willingness-to-pay (93% at a $20,000/QALY threshold). This study found dabigatran is economically dominant versus rivaroxaban for prevention of stroke and systemic embolism among Canadian AF patients.

Cost-effectiveness of dabigatran etexilate for the prevention of stroke and systemic embolism in atrial fibrillation: A Canadian payer perspective

Oral dabigatran etexilate is indicated for the prevention of stroke and systemic embolism in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) in whom anticoagulation is appropriate. Based on the RE-LY study we investigated the cost-effectiveness of Health Canada approved dabigatran etexilate dosing (150 mg bid for patients <80 years, 110 mg bid for patients ≥80 years) versus warfarin and “real-world” prescribing (i.e. warfarin, aspirin, or no treatment in a cohort of warfarin-eligible patients) from a Canadian payer perspective. A Markov model simulated AF patients at moderate to high risk of stroke while tracking clinical events [primary and recurrent ischaemic strokes, systemic embolism, transient ischaemic attack, haemorrhage (intracranial, extracranial, and minor), acute myocardial infarction and death] and resulting functional disability. Acute event costs and resulting long-term follow-up costs incurred by disabled stroke survivors were based on a Canadian prospective study, published literature, and national statistics. Clinical events, summarized as events per 100 patient-years, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), total costs, and incremental cost effectiveness ratios (ICER) were calculated. Over a lifetime, dabigatran etexilate treated patients experienced fewer intracranial haemorrhages (0.49 dabigatran etexilate vs. 1.13 warfarin vs. 1.05 “real-world” prescribing) and fewer ischaemic strokes (4.40 dabigatran etexilate vs. 4.66 warfarin vs. 5.16 “real-world” prescribing) per 100 patient-years. The ICER of dabigatran etexilate was $10,440/QALY versus warfarin and $3,962/QALY versus “real-world” prescribing. This study demonstrates that dabigatran etexilate is a highly cost-effective alternative to current care for the prevention of stroke and systemic embolism among Canadian AF patients.

Universal versus platelet reactivity assay-driven use of P2Y12 inhibitors in acute coronary syndrome patients

Platelet reactivity assays (PRAs) can predict patients’ likely response to clopidogrel. As ticagrelor and prasugrel are typically considered first-line agents for acute coronary syndrome in Europe, we assessed the cost-effectiveness of universal compared to PRA-driven selection of these agents. A Markov model was used to calculate five-year costs (2013£/€), quality-adjusted life-years and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) for one-year of universal ticagrelor or prasugrel (given to all) compared to each agents’ corresponding PRA-driven strategy (ticagrelor/prasugrel in those with high platelet reactivity [HPR, >208 on the VerifyNow P2Y12 assay], others given generic clopidogrel). We assumed patients had their index event at 65–70 years of age and had a 42.7% incidence of HPR 24–48 hours post-revascularisation. The analysis was conducted from the perspective of six countries (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands and United Kingdom) and used a one-year cycle length. Event data for P2Y12 inhibitors were taken from multinational randomised trials and adjusted using country-specific epidemiologic data. Neither universal ticagrelor nor prasugrel were found to be cost-effective (all ICERs >40,250€ or £36,600/QALY) compared to their corresponding PRA-driven strategies in any of the countries evaluated. Results were sensitive to differences in P2Y12 Inhibitors costs and drug-specific relative risks of major adverse cardiac events. Monte Carlo simulation suggested universal ticagrelor or prasugrel were cost-effective in only 25–44% and 11–17% of 10,000 iterations compared to their respective PRA-driven strategies, when applying a willingness-to-pay threshold = €30,000 or £20,000/QALY. In conclusion, the universal use of newer P2Y12 inhibitors is not likely cost-effective compared to PRA-driven strategies.

Uncertainty on the effectiveness and safety of rivaroxaban in premenopausal women with atrial fibrillation: empirical evidence needed

Background

Novel anticoagulations (NOACs) are increasingly prescribed for the prevention of stroke in premenopausal women with atrial fibrillation. Small studies suggest NOACs are associated with a higher risk of abnormal uterine bleeds than vitamin K antagonists (VKAs). Because there is no direct empirical evidence on the benefit/risk profile of rivaroxaban compared to VKAs in this subgroup, we synthesize available indirect evidence, estimate decision uncertainty on the treatments, and assess whether further research in premenopausal women is warranted.

Methods

A Markov model with annual cycles and a lifetime horizon was developed comparing rivaroxaban (the most frequently prescribed NOAC in this population) and VKAs. Clinical event rates, associated quality adjusted life years, and health care costs were obtained from different sources and adjusted for gender, age, and history of stroke. A Monte Carlo simulation with 10,000 iterations was then performed for a hypothetical cohort of premenopausal women, estimated to be reflective of the population of premenopausal women with AF in The Netherlands.

Results

In the simulation, rivaroxaban is the better treatment option for the prevention of ischemic strokes in premenopausal women in 61% of the iterations. Similarly, this is 98% for intracranial hemorrhages, 24% for major abnormal uterine bleeds, 1% for minor abnormal uterine bleeds, 9% for other major extracranial hemorrhages, and 23% for other minor extracranial hemorrhages. There is a 78% chance that rivaroxaban offers the most quality-adjusted life years. The expected value of perfect information in The Netherlands equals 122 quality-adjusted life years and 22 million Euros.

Conclusions

There is a 22% risk that rivaroxaban offers a worse rather than a better benefit/risk profile than vitamin K antagonists in premenopausal women. Although rivaroxaban is preferred over VKAs in this population, further research is warranted, and should preferably take the shape of an internationally coordinated registry study including other NOACs.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12872-017-0692-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Re-treatment with varenicline is a cost-effective aid for smoking cessation

OBJECTIVE

One quit attempt with varenicline has been found to be a cost-effective smoking cessation intervention. The purpose of this study was to analyze varenicline's cost-effectiveness in patients who relapse during or after the first treatment. A comparison was made between re-treatment schema with varenicline and re-treatment schema with bupropion, NRT and unaided cessation, and treatment once with varenicline in a Finnish context.

METHODS

The two-quit version of BENESCO Markov model was used to follow a cohort of smokers making up to two quit attempts over a lifetime. The abstinence rates of the interventions were derived from a Cochrane review. Gender- and age-specific data on the incidence and prevalence of five smoking-related diseases were included in the model. Quality-adjusted life-years, total expected costs, and the lifetime cumulative incidence of smoking-related morbidities and mortality were the primary outcomes evaluated.

RESULTS

The study cohort comprised 116,533 smokers who were willing to make a quit attempt. In the lifetime simulation, re-treatment with varenicline yielded 6,150-20,250 extra quitters, depending on the comparator. Among these quitters it was possible to prevent 899-2,972 additional cases of smoking-related diseases, and 395-1,307 deaths attributable to smoking. Re-treatment with varenicline resulted in cost savings of up to 54.9 million Euros. Re-treatment with varenicline dominated all the other smoking cessation interventions used in the analysis. Sensitivity analysis supported the robustness of the base case results.

LIMITATIONS

The analysis did not consider adverse events, and included only five major smoking-related diseases, which is a conservative approach, and probably leads to under-estimation of cost-effectiveness of cessation interventions. Furthermore, assumptions of constant relative risks for smoking-related diseases for each smoking status and the proxy values used as efficacy estimates of second quit attempts for other interventions than varenicline are limitations.

CONCLUSIONS

A second quitting effort with varenicline is economically justifiable.