A Comprehensive Review of the Progress and Evaluation of the Thyroid Ultrasound Examination Program, the Fukushima Health Management Survey

A Historical Survey of Key Epidemiological Studies of Ionizing Radiation Exposure

In this article we review the history of key epidemiological studies of populations exposed to ionizing radiation. We highlight historical and recent findings regarding radiation-associated risks for incidence and mortality of cancer and non-cancer outcomes with emphasis on study design and methods of exposure assessment and dose estimation along with brief consideration of sources of bias for a few of the more important studies. We examine the findings from the epidemiological studies of the Japanese atomic bomb survivors, persons exposed to radiation for diagnostic or therapeutic purposes, those exposed to environmental sources including Chornobyl and other reactor accidents, and occupationally exposed cohorts. We also summarize results of pooled studies. These summaries are necessarily brief, but we provide references to more detailed information. We discuss possible future directions of study, to include assessment of susceptible populations, and possible new populations, data sources, study designs and methods of analysis.

Thyroid ultrasound findings in young and middle-aged adults living in the region of the Chornobyl Nuclear Power Plant

Nearly forty years have passed since the Chornobyl Nuclear Power Plant accident, which resulted in childhood and adolescent thyroid cancers increasing due to internal exposure to iodine-131. Therefore, the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station accident, in 2011, raised serious anxiety about potential risks of thyroid cancers. Considering the causal relationship between thyroid cancer and the Chornobyl accident, radiation dose to the thyroid due to this accident should be considered carefully. In addition, a thorough investigation of any influence of ultrasound screening of the thyroid on the detection of thyroid diseases was still missing. Consequently, from 2019 to 2021, the frequency of abnormal thyroid findings from screening of residents in Zhytomyr, Ukraine, which was heavily contaminated by the accident, was evaluated in this study. For this, the same diagnostic classification of any thyroid ultrasound findings as those of the Fukushima Health Management Survey were used. This classification used the categories "A1" (no findings), "A2" (thyroid cysts less than 20 mm and/or thyroid nodules less than 5 mm), and "B" (thyroid cysts more than 20 mm and/or thyroid nodules more than 5 mm). 2,978 participants were analyzed. It was found that the frequency of "B" findings increased with age. This may be due to the observed increased incidence of not only malignant but also benign thyroid nodules. It may well be that such an increase will also be observed in Fukushima in the future. It is concluded that future thyroid examiners in Fukushima should be aware of findings specific to adults, such as chronic thyroiditis. For comparison, it will be necessary to perform longitudinal studies in the Japanese population not exposed to radiation from the Fukushima accident.

Radiation Dose Does Not Affect the Predictive Value of Thyroid Biopsy for Diagnosing Papillary Thyroid Cancer in a Belarusian Cohort Exposed to Chernobyl Fallout

INTRODUCTION

The Chernobyl nuclear accident exposed residents of contaminated territories to substantial quantities of radioiodines and was followed by an increase in thyroid cancer, primarily papillary thyroid cancer (PTC), among exposed children and adolescents. Although thyroid biopsy is an essential component of screening programs following accidental exposure to radioiodines, it is unknown whether the predictive value of biopsy is affected by different levels of environmental exposure.

METHODS

A cohort of 11,732 Belarusians aged ≤18 years at the time of the Chernobyl accident with individual thyroid radiation dose estimates was screened at least once 11-22 years later. Paired cytologic conclusions and histopathologic diagnoses were possible for 258 thyroid nodules from 238 cohort members. Cytologic conclusions were divided into five reporting categories, with all follicular lesion aspirates combined into a single indeterminate category. Standard performance indicators, risk of malignancy (ROM), and odds ratios for a correct cytologic conclusion were calculated, both overall and according to quintile of thyroid radiation dose.

RESULTS

The arithmetic mean thyroid dose estimate for the study group was 1.73 Gy (range: 0.00-23.64 Gy). The final histopathologic diagnosis was cancer for 136 of 258 biopsies (52.7%; 135 papillary and 1 follicular). The overall ROM was 96.7% for cytologies definite for PTC, 83.7% for suspicious for PTC, 33.0% for indeterminate, 8.1% for benign, and 31.0% for non-diagnostic. The ROM showed little change according to level of radiation exposure. Overall, there was no association between thyroid radiation dose and the odds ratio for a correct cytologic conclusion (p = 0.24). When analyzed according to dose quintile, the odds ratio for a correct conclusion increased two-fold at 0.10-0.29 Gy compared to a dose of 0.00-0.09 Gy and decreased at doses of 0.3-24 Gy (p value for linear trend = 0.99).

CONCLUSIONS

At radiation doses received by a cohort of young Belarusians exposed to radioiodines by the Chernobyl accident, the predictive value of thyroid biopsy for diagnosing PTC was not significantly affected by level of radiation exposure.

Radiation-Related Thyroid Cancer

Radiation is an environmental factor that elevates the risk of developing thyroid cancer. Actual and possible scenarios of exposures to external and internal radiation are multiple and diverse. This article reviews radiation doses to the thyroid and corresponding cancer risks due to planned, existing, and emergency exposure situations, and medical, public, and occupational categories of exposures. Any exposure scenario may deliver a range of doses to the thyroid, and the risk for cancer is addressed along with modifying factors. The consequences of the Chornobyl and Fukushima nuclear power plant accidents are described, summarizing the information on thyroid cancer epidemiology, treatment, and prognosis, clinicopathological characteristics, and genetic alterations. The Chornobyl thyroid cancers have evolved in time: becoming less aggressive and driver shifting from fusions to point mutations. A comparison of thyroid cancers from the 2 areas reveals numerous differences that cumulatively suggest the low probability of the radiogenic nature of thyroid cancers in Fukushima. In view of continuing usage of different sources of radiation in various settings, the possible ways of reducing thyroid cancer risk from exposures are considered. For external exposures, reasonable measures are generally in line with the As Low As Reasonably Achievable principle, while for internal irradiation from radioactive iodine, thyroid blocking with stable iodine may be recommended in addition to other measures in case of anticipated exposures from a nuclear reactor accident. Finally, the perspectives of studies of radiation effects on the thyroid are discussed from the epidemiological, basic science, and clinical points of view.

2022 Fukushima Medical University International Symposium on the Fukushima Health Management Survey Build Back Better, Together. "Science for Society: Advancing Fukushima's Well-Being"

The Fukushima Medical University (FMU) International Symposium on the Fukushima Health Management Survey (FHMS) convened for the fourth time in March 2022 to share FHMS findings within Fukushima and beyond. Dr. TAKENOSHITA Seiichi, FMU President, underscored Fukushima's restoration journey, while Governor UCHIBORI Masao committed to partnering with FMU for residents' welfare.The Introduction by Dr. KAMIYA Kenji highlighted FHMS results for more than 460,000 participants, of whom 99.8% were exposed to radiation doses below 5 mSv post-accident. Thyroid examinations detected tumors, but no dose-response relationship was found. The Comprehensive Health Check showed increased lifestyle-related diseases among evacuees, with improvements in some health markers. Mental health issues initially prevalent after the accident decreased over time, and perinatal outcomes were consistent with national data.Session 1 focused on radiation effects in Fukushima. The UNSCEAR 2020 Report indicated significantly reduced radiation exposure estimates and negligible cancer risks. Studies from Hiroshima, Nagasaki, and Chernobyl found no radiation-induced genetic effects.Session 2 explored post-disaster well-being, emphasizing the evolution of psychological responses. Practices like Psychological First Aid (PFA) and emotional resilience promotion were highlighted. Katsurao Village's post-evacuation health measures addressed lifestyle diseases, but faced challenges. The WHO framework for mental health and psychosocial support in nuclear emergencies emphasized the importance of mental health care throughout all disaster phases.The symposium facilitated valuable insights, underlining comprehensive health strategies and the significance of long-term studies for Fukushima's recovery and health management.

Confounding factors and biases involved in regional differences in the detection rate of thyroid cancer in the second-round Thyroid Ultrasound Examination: the Fukushima Health Management Survey

In response to concerns about health due to radiation exposure, the Fukushima Prefecture launched the Thyroid Ultrasound Examination program for residents aged 0-18 years at the time of the earthquake. Herein, we considered the confounding factors involved in the regional differences in the development of thyroid cancer. In this study, the 242 065 individuals who participated in both first- and second-round surveys were classified into four groups by address according to their air radiation dose. The number of participants diagnosed as malignant or suspicious for malignancy by cytological examination were 17, 38, 10 and 4 with detection rates of 53.8, 27.8, 21.7 and 14.5 per 100 000 participants in Regions 1, 2, 3 and 4, respectively. Sex (P = 0.0400), age at the time of the primary examination (P < 0.0001) and interval between the first- and second-round surveys (P < 0.0001) were significantly different among the four regions, and these were suspected to be confounding factors affecting regional differences in malignant nodule detection rates. In addition, significant regional differences were observed in the participation rate in the confirmatory examination (P = 0.0037) and the fine needle aspiration cytology implementation rate (P = 0.0037), which could be potential biases. No significant regional differences in the detection of malignant nodules were found in the multivariate logistic regression analysis after adjusting for the survey interval alone or for sex, age and survey interval. The confounding factors and biases identified in this study that may have important impacts on thyroid cancer detection rate should be fully considered in future studies.

Area Dose-Response and Radiation Origin of Childhood Thyroid Cancer in Fukushima Based on Thyroid Dose in UNSCEAR 2020/2021: High 131I Exposure Comparable to Chernobyl

The FMU and the United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR) concluded that the high incidence of thyroid cancer after the Fukushima nuclear accident was not the result of radiation exposure, but rather might have been overdiagnosis based on the low thyroid dose estimated in the UNSCEAR 2020/2021 report. In this study, the origin of increased PTC in Fukushima was examined based on the thyroid dose estimated by UNSCEAR. The dose-response relationship of the incidence rate per person-years (PY) was analyzed for four areas in Fukushima prefecture via regression analysis. The linear response of the annual incidence rates to thyroid dose in the first six years showed that the dominant origin of childhood thyroid cancer was radiation exposure. Excess absolute risk (EAR) proportionally increased with thyroid dose, with an EAR/104 PY Gy of 143 (95%CI: 122, 165) in the second TUE (p < 0.001), which is approximately 50-100 times higher than the EAR/104 PY Gy ≒ 2.3 observed after the Chernobyl accident. This suggests an underestimation of the thyroid dose by UNSCEAR of approximately 1/50~1/100 compared with the thyroid dose for Chernobyl. The increased childhood thyroid cancer in Fukushima was found to arise from radioactive iodine exposure, which was comparable to that in Chernobyl.

No increase in translocated chromosomal aberrations, an indicator of ionizing radiation exposure, in childhood thyroid cancer in Fukushima Prefecture

To investigate the effects of radiation exposure due to the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident, following the disaster Fukushima Prefecture launched thyroid ultrasound examinations of residents who were generally younger than 18 years at the time of the earthquake. As the rate of pediatric thyroid cancer was higher than expected, we conducted biological dose assessment based on the frequency of translocated chromosome (Tr) aberrations using peripheral blood lymphocytes. Tr formation frequency was compared among the thyroid cancer (n = 38, median age 18 years, age range 12-26 years), thyroid-related disease (n = 30, median age 21 years, age range 15-28 years), and healthy controls (n = 31, median age 22 years, age range 20-23 years) groups. Tr aberration frequency was initially significantly higher in the thyroid cancer than in the other two groups; however, differences among the groups disappeared after adjusting for history of CT scan, as 92%, 67%, and 28% of those in the thyroid cancer, thyroid-related disease, and control groups, respectively, had undergone CT previously. Therefore, the significant difference in the initial number of Tr formations is presumably due to radiation exposure from CT. Accordingly, the effects of medical exposure on the chromosomes of children and adolescents should be noted.

Achievements and Current Status of the Fukushima Health Management Survey

The Fukushima Health Management Survey (FHMS) was established in response to the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident on March 11, 2011. The primary objectives of the study are to monitor residents' long-term health and promote their future well-being, and to determine the health effects of long-term low-dose radiation exposure. This special issue summarizes the results and current status of the FHMS and discusses the challenges and future directions of the FHMS. The FHMS, a cohort study of all people who were residents in Fukushima Prefecture at the time of the accident, consists of a Basic Survey, Thyroid Ultrasound Examination, Comprehensive Health Check, Mental Health and Lifestyle Survey, and Pregnancy and Birth Survey. The radiation exposure was estimated based on the behavioral records examined using the Basic Survey. Although the response rate was low in the Basic Survey, the representativeness of the radiation exposure data was confirmed using additional surveys. There appears to be no relationship between the radiation exposure and risk of thyroid cancer, although more thyroid cancer cases were detected than initially expected. The ongoing Comprehensive Health Check and Mental Health and Lifestyle Survey have provided evidence of worsening physical and mental health status. The Pregnancy and Birth Survey showed rates of preterm delivery, low birth weight, and congenital abnormalities similar to the national average. Considering the above evidence, the Fukushima Prefectural Government decided to end the Pregnancy and Birth Survey at the end of March 2021, as recommended by the Prefectural Oversight Committee. The framework of the FHMS has not changed, but the FHMS needs to adapt according to the survey results and the changing needs of the eligible residents and municipalities.

Revisiting the Geographical Distribution of Thyroid Cancer Incidence in Fukushima Prefecture: Analysis of Data From the Second- and Third-round Thyroid Ultrasound Examination

BACKGROUND

After the first-round (Preliminary Baseline Survey) ultrasound-based examination for thyroid cancer in response to the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant in 2011, two rounds of surveys (Full-scale Survey) have been carried out in Fukushima Prefecture. Using the data from these surveys, the geographical distribution of thyroid cancer incidence over 6 or 7 years after the disaster was examined.

METHODS

Children and adolescents who underwent the ultrasound-based examinations in the second- and/or third-round (Full-scale) survey in addition to the first-round survey were included. With a discrete survival model, we computed age, sex, and body mass index standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) for municipalities. Then, we employed spatial statistics to assess geographic clustering tendency in SIRs and Poisson regression to assess the association of SIRs with the municipal average absorbed dose to the thyroid gland at the 59-municipality level.

RESULTS

Throughout the second- and third-round surveys, 99 thyroid cancer cases were diagnosed in the study population of 252,502 individuals. Both flexibly shaped spatial scan statistics and maximized excess events test did not detect statistically significant spatial clustering (P = 0.17 and 0.54, respectively). Poisson regression showed no significant dose-response relationship: the estimated relative risks of lowest, middle-low, middle-high, and highest areas were 1.16 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.52-2.59), 0.55 (95% CI, 0.31-0.97), 1.05 (95% CI, 0.79-1.40), and 1.24 (95% CI, 0.89-1.74).

CONCLUSION

There was no statistical support for geographic clustering or regional association with radiation dose measures of the thyroid cancer incidence in the cohort followed up to the third-round survey (fiscal years 2016-2017) in Fukushima Prefecture.