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Lundberg AL, Wu SA, Soetikno AG, Hawkins C, Murphy RL, Havey RJ, Ozer EA, Moss CB, Welch SB, Mason M, Liu Y, Post LA. Updated Surveillance Metrics and History of the COVID-19 Pandemic (2020-2023) in Europe: Longitudinal Trend Analysis. JMIR Public Health Surveill 2024; 10:e53551. [PMID: 38568186 PMCID: PMC11226935 DOI: 10.2196/53551] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/10/2023] [Revised: 03/12/2024] [Accepted: 03/20/2024] [Indexed: 06/22/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND In this study, we built upon our initial research published in 2020 by incorporating an additional 2 years of data for Europe. We assessed whether COVID-19 had shifted from the pandemic to endemic phase in the region when the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the end of the public health emergency of international concern on May 5, 2023. OBJECTIVE We first aimed to measure whether there was an expansion or contraction in the pandemic in Europe at the time of the WHO declaration. Second, we used dynamic and genomic surveillance methods to describe the history of the pandemic in the region and situate the window of the WHO declaration within the broader history. Third, we provided the historical context for the course of the pandemic in Europe in terms of policy and disease burden at the country and region levels. METHODS In addition to the updates of traditional surveillance data and dynamic panel estimates from the original study, this study used data on sequenced SARS-CoV-2 variants from the Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data to identify the appearance and duration of variants of concern. We used Nextclade nomenclature to collect clade designations from sequences and Pangolin nomenclature for lineage designations of SARS-CoV-2. Finally, we conducted a 1-tailed t test for whether regional weekly speed was greater than an outbreak threshold of 10. We ran the test iteratively with 6 months of data across the sample period. RESULTS Speed for the region had remained below the outbreak threshold for 4 months by the time of the WHO declaration. Acceleration and jerk were also low and stable. While the 1-day and 7-day persistence coefficients remained statistically significant, the coefficients were moderate in magnitude (0.404 and 0.547, respectively; P<.001 for both). The shift parameters for the 2 weeks around the WHO declaration were small and insignificant, suggesting little change in the clustering effect of cases on future cases at the time. From December 2021 onward, Omicron was the predominant variant of concern in sequenced viral samples. The rolling t test of speed equal to 10 became insignificant for the first time in April 2023. CONCLUSIONS While COVID-19 continues to circulate in Europe, the rate of transmission remained below the threshold of an outbreak for 4 months ahead of the WHO declaration. The region had previously been in a nearly continuous state of outbreak. The more recent trend suggested that COVID-19 was endemic in the region and no longer reached the threshold of the pandemic definition. However, several countries remained in a state of outbreak, and the conclusion that COVID-19 was no longer a pandemic in Europe at the time is unclear.
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Affiliation(s)
- Alexander L Lundberg
- Buehler Center for Health Policy and Economics, Robert J. Havey, MD Institute for Global Health, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
| | - Scott A Wu
- Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
| | - Alan G Soetikno
- Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
| | - Claudia Hawkins
- Department of Medicine, Division of Infectious Diseases, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
- Center for Global Communicable and Emerging Infectious Diseases, Robert J. Havey, MD Institute for Global Health, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
| | - Robert L Murphy
- Department of Medicine, Division of Infectious Diseases, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
- Robert J. Havey, MD Institute for Global Health, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
| | - Robert J Havey
- Robert J. Havey, MD Institute for Global Health, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
- Department of Medicine, General Internal Medicine and Geriatrics, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
| | - Egon A Ozer
- Department of Medicine, Division of Infectious Diseases, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
- Center for Pathogen Genomics and Microbial Evolution, Robert J. Havey, MD Institute for Global Health, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
| | - Charles B Moss
- Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, United States
| | - Sarah B Welch
- Buehler Center for Health Policy and Economics, Robert J. Havey, MD Institute for Global Health, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
| | - Maryann Mason
- Buehler Center for Health Policy and Economics, Robert J. Havey, MD Institute for Global Health, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
| | - Yingxuan Liu
- Buehler Center for Health Policy and Economics, Robert J. Havey, MD Institute for Global Health, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
| | - Lori A Post
- Buehler Center for Health Policy and Economics, Robert J. Havey, MD Institute for Global Health, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
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Lundberg A, Soetikno AG, Wu SA, Ozer E, Welch SB, Mason M, Murphy R, Hawkins C, Liu Y, Moss C, Havey RJ, Achenbach C, Post LA. Sub-Saharan Africa Surveillance Metrics and History of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Updated Epidemiological Assessment. JMIR Public Health Surveill 2024. [PMID: 39013111 DOI: 10.2196/53409] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 07/18/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND This study updates the COVID-19 pandemic surveillance in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) we first conducted in 2020 by providing two additional years of data for the region. OBJECTIVE First, we aim to measure whether there was an expansion or contraction in the pandemic in SSA when the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the end of the public health emergency for the COVID-19 pandemic on May 5, 2023. Second, we use dynamic and genomic surveillance methods to describe the history of the pandemic in the region and situate the window of the WHO declaration within the broader history. Third, we aim to provide historical context for the course of the pandemic in SSA. METHODS In addition to updates of traditional surveillance data and dynamic panel estimates from the original study by Post et al. (2021), this study used data on sequenced SARS-CoV-2 variants from the Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data (GISAID) to identify the appearance and duration of variants of concern. We used Nextclade nomenclature to collect clade designations from sequences and Pangolin nomenclature for lineage designations of SARS-CoV-2. Finally, we conducted a one-sided t-test for whether regional weekly speed was greater than an outbreak threshold of ten. We ran the test iteratively with a rolling, six month-window of data across the sample period. RESULTS Speed for the region remained well below the outbreak threshold before and after the WHO declaration. Acceleration and jerk were also low and stable. The 7-day persistence coefficient remained somewhat large (1.11) and statistically significant. However, both shift parameters for the weeks around the WHO declaration were negative, meaning the clustering effect of new COVID-19 cases had become recently smaller. From November 2021 onward, Omicron was the predominant variant of concern in sequenced viral samples. The rolling t-test of speed equal to ten was insignificant for the entire sample period. CONCLUSIONS While COVID-19 continues to circulate in SSA, the region never reached outbreak status, and the weekly transmission rate had remained below one case per 100,000 population for well over one year ahead of the WHO declaration. COVID-19 is endemic in the region and no longer reaches the threshold of a pandemic definition. Both standard and enhanced surveillance metrics confirm that the pandemic had ended in SSA by the time of the WHO declaration. CLINICALTRIAL
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Affiliation(s)
- Alexander Lundberg
- Buehler Center for Health Policy and Economics, Robert J. Havey, MD Institute for Global Health, Northwestern University, 420 E. Superior, Chicago, US
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, US
| | - Alan G Soetikno
- Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, US
| | - Scott A Wu
- Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, US
| | - Egon Ozer
- Department of Medicine, Division of Infectious Diseases, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, US
- Center for Pathogen Genomics and Microbial Evolution, Robert J. Havey, MD Institute for Global Health, Northwestern University, Chicago, US
| | - Sarah B Welch
- Buehler Center for Health Policy and Economics, Robert J. Havey, MD Institute for Global Health, Northwestern University, 420 E. Superior, Chicago, US
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, US
| | - Maryann Mason
- Buehler Center for Health Policy and Economics, Robert J. Havey, MD Institute for Global Health, Northwestern University, 420 E. Superior, Chicago, US
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, US
| | - Robert Murphy
- Department of Medicine, Division of Infectious Diseases, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, US
- Robert J. Havey, MD Institute for Global Health, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, US
| | - Claudia Hawkins
- Department of Medicine, Division of Infectious Diseases, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, US
- Center for Global Communicable and Emerging Infectious Diseases, Robert J Havey, MD Institute for Global Health, Northwestern University, Chicago, US
| | - Yingxuan Liu
- Buehler Center for Health Policy and Economics, Robert J. Havey, MD Institute for Global Health, Northwestern University, 420 E. Superior, Chicago, US
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, US
| | - Charles Moss
- Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences, University of Florida, Gainesville, US
| | - Robert J Havey
- Robert J. Havey, MD Institute for Global Health, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, US
- Department of Medicine, General Internal Medicine and Geriatrics, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University,, Chicago, US
| | - Chad Achenbach
- Department of Medicine, Division of Infectious Diseases, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, US
- Robert J. Havey, MD Institute for Global Health, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, US
| | - Lori A Post
- Buehler Center for Health Policy and Economics, Robert J. Havey, MD Institute for Global Health, Northwestern University, 420 E. Superior, Chicago, US
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, US
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Post LA, Soetikno AG, Wu SA, Hawkins C, Mason M, Ozer E, Murphy R, Welch SB, Liu Y, Havey RJ, Moss CB, Achenbach CJ, Lundberg A. South Asia's COVID-19 History and Surveillance: Updated Epidemiological Assessment. JMIR Public Health Surveill 2024. [PMID: 39013116 DOI: 10.2196/53331] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 07/18/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND This study updates the COVID-19 pandemic surveillance in South Asia we first conducted in 2020 with two additional years of data for the region. We assess whether COVID-19 had transitioned from pandemic to endemic at the point the World Health Organization (WHO) ended the publication health emergency status for COVID-19 on May 5, 2023. OBJECTIVE First, we aim to measure whether there was an expansion or contraction in the pandemic in South Asia around the WHO declaration. Second, we use dynamic and genomic surveillance methods to describe the history of the pandemic in the region and situate the window of the WHO declaration within the broader history. Third, we aim to provide historical context for the course of the pandemic in South Asia. METHODS In addition to updates of traditional surveillance data and dynamic panel estimates from the original study Welch et al. (2021), this study used data on sequenced SARS-CoV-2 variants from the Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data (GISAID) to identify the appearance and duration of variants of concern. We used Nextclade nomenclature to collect clade designations from sequences and Pangolin nomenclature for lineage designations of SARS-CoV-2. Finally, we conducted a one-sided t-test for whether regional weekly speed or transmission rate per 100,000 population was greater than an outbreak threshold of ten. We ran the test iteratively with six months of data across the sample period. RESULTS Speed for the region remained below the outbreak threshold for over a year by the time of the WHO declaration. Acceleration and jerk were also low and stable. While the 1-day persistence coefficients remained statistically significant and positive (1.168), the 7-day persistence coefficient was negative (-0.185), suggesting limited cluster effects in which cases on a given day predict cases seven days forward. Furthermore, the shift parameters for either of the two most recent weeks around May 5, 2023, did not indicate any overall change in the persistence measure around the time of WHO declaration. From December of 2021 onward, Omicron was the predominant variant of concern in sequenced viral samples. The rolling t-test of speed equal to ten was statistically insignificant across the entire pandemic. CONCLUSIONS While COVID-19 continues to circulate in South Asia, the rate of transmission had remained below the outbreak threshold for well over a year ahead of the WHO declaration. COVID-19 is endemic in the region and no longer reaches the threshold of the pandemic definition. Both standard and enhanced surveillance metrics confirm that the pandemic had ended by the time of the WHO declaration. Prevention policies should be a focus ahead of future pandemics. On that point, policy should emphasize an epidemiological task force with widespread testing and a contact-tracing system. CLINICALTRIAL
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Affiliation(s)
- Lori Ann Post
- Buehler Center for Health Policy and Economics, Robert J. Havey MD Institute for Global Health, Northwestern University, 420 E. Superior St., Chicago, US
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, US
| | - Alan G Soetikno
- Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, US
| | - Scott A Wu
- Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, US
| | - Claudia Hawkins
- Department of Medicine, Division of Infectious Diseases, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, US
- Center for Global Communicable and Emerging Infectious Diseases, Robert J Havey, MD Institute for Global Health, Northwestern University, Chicago, US
| | - Maryann Mason
- Buehler Center for Health Policy and Economics, Robert J. Havey MD Institute for Global Health, Northwestern University, 420 E. Superior St., Chicago, US
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, US
| | - Egon Ozer
- Department of Medicine, Division of Infectious Diseases, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, US
- Center for Pathogen Genomics and Microbial Evolution, Robert J. Havey, MD Institute for Global Health, Northwestern University, Chicago, US
| | - Robert Murphy
- Department of Medicine, Division of Infectious Diseases, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, US
- Robert J. Havey, MD Institute for Global Health, Northwestern University, Chicago, US
| | - Sarah B Welch
- Buehler Center for Health Policy and Economics, Robert J. Havey MD Institute for Global Health, Northwestern University, 420 E. Superior St., Chicago, US
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, US
| | - Yingxuan Liu
- Buehler Center for Health Policy and Economics, Robert J. Havey MD Institute for Global Health, Northwestern University, 420 E. Superior St., Chicago, US
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, US
| | - Robert J Havey
- Robert J. Havey, MD Institute for Global Health, Northwestern University, Chicago, US
- Department of Medicine, General Internal Medicine and Geriatrics, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, US
| | - Charles B Moss
- Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences, University of Florida, Gainesville, US
| | - Chad J Achenbach
- Department of Medicine, Division of Infectious Diseases, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, US
- Robert J. Havey, MD Institute for Global Health, Northwestern University, Chicago, US
| | - Alexander Lundberg
- Buehler Center for Health Policy and Economics, Robert J. Havey MD Institute for Global Health, Northwestern University, 420 E. Superior St., Chicago, US
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, US
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Soetikno AG, Lundberg AL, Ozer EA, Wu SA, Welch SB, Mason M, Liu Y, Havey RJ, Murphy RL, Hawkins C, Moss CB, Post LA. Updated Surveillance Metrics and History of the COVID-19 Pandemic (2020-2023) in the Middle East and North Africa: Longitudinal Trend Analysis. JMIR Public Health Surveill 2024; 10:e53219. [PMID: 38568184 PMCID: PMC11208839 DOI: 10.2196/53219] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/03/2023] [Revised: 03/12/2024] [Accepted: 03/20/2024] [Indexed: 06/13/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND This study updates the COVID-19 pandemic surveillance in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) we first conducted in 2020 with 2 additional years of data for the region. OBJECTIVE The objective of this study is to determine whether the MENA region meets the criteria for moving from a pandemic to endemic. In doing so, this study considers pandemic trends, dynamic and genomic surveillance methods, and region-specific historical context for the pandemic. These considerations continue through the World Health Organization (WHO) declaration of the end of the public health emergency for the COVID-19 pandemic on May 5, 2023. METHODS In addition to updates to traditional surveillance data and dynamic panel estimates from the original study by Post et al, this study used data on sequenced SARS-CoV-2 variants from the Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data (GISAID) to identify the appearance and duration of variants of concern. We used Nextclade nomenclature to collect clade designations from sequences and Pangolin nomenclature for lineage designations of SARS-CoV-2. Finally, we conducted a 1-sided t test to determine whether regional weekly speed of COVID-19 spread was greater than an outbreak threshold of 10. We ran the test iteratively with 6 months of data from September 4, 2020, to May 12, 2023. RESULTS The speed of COVID-19 spread for the region had remained below the outbreak threshold for 7 continuous months by the time of the WHO declaration. Acceleration and jerk were also low and stable. Although the 1- and 7-day persistence coefficients remained statistically significant and positive, the weekly shift parameters suggested the coefficients had most recently turned negative, meaning the clustering effect of new COVID-19 cases became even smaller in the 2 weeks around the WHO declaration. From December 2021 onward, Omicron was the predominant variant of concern in sequenced viral samples. The rolling t test of the speed of spread equal to 10 became entirely insignificant from October 2022 onward. CONCLUSIONS The COVID-19 pandemic had far-reaching effects on MENA, impacting health care systems, economies, and social well-being. Although COVID-19 continues to circulate in the MENA region, the rate of transmission remained well below the threshold of an outbreak for over 1 year ahead of the WHO declaration. COVID-19 is endemic in the region and no longer reaches the threshold of the pandemic definition. Both standard and enhanced surveillance metrics confirm that the pandemic had transitioned to endemic by the time of the WHO declaration.
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Affiliation(s)
- Alan G Soetikno
- Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
| | - Alexander L Lundberg
- Buehler Center for Health Policy and Economics, Robert J. Havey, MD Institute for Global Health, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
| | - Egon A Ozer
- Department of Medicine, Division of Infectious Diseases, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
- Center for Pathogen Genomics and Microbial Evolution, Robert J. Havey, MD Institute for Global Health, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
| | - Scott A Wu
- Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
| | - Sarah B Welch
- Buehler Center for Health Policy and Economics, Robert J. Havey, MD Institute for Global Health, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
| | - Maryann Mason
- Buehler Center for Health Policy and Economics, Robert J. Havey, MD Institute for Global Health, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
| | - Yingxuan Liu
- Buehler Center for Health Policy and Economics, Robert J. Havey, MD Institute for Global Health, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
| | - Robert J Havey
- Robert J. Havey, MD Institute for Global Health, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
- Department of Medicine, General Internal Medicine and Geriatrics, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
| | - Robert L Murphy
- Department of Medicine, Division of Infectious Diseases, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
- Robert J. Havey, MD Institute for Global Health, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
| | - Claudia Hawkins
- Department of Medicine, Division of Infectious Diseases, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
- Center for Global Communicable and Emerging Infectious Diseases, Robert J. Havey, MD Institute for Global Health, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
| | - Charles B Moss
- Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, United States
| | - Lori Ann Post
- Buehler Center for Health Policy and Economics, Robert J. Havey, MD Institute for Global Health, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
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Post LA, Wu SA, Soetikno AG, Ozer EA, Liu Y, Welch SB, Hawkins C, Moss CB, Murphy RL, Mason M, Havey RJ, Lundberg AL. Updated Surveillance Metrics and History of the COVID-19 Pandemic (2020-2023) in Latin America and the Caribbean: Longitudinal Trend Analysis. JMIR Public Health Surveill 2024; 10:e44398. [PMID: 38568194 PMCID: PMC11129782 DOI: 10.2196/44398] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/06/2023] [Revised: 03/12/2024] [Accepted: 03/20/2024] [Indexed: 05/18/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND In May 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) the epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic, with over 40% of worldwide COVID-19-related deaths at the time. This high disease burden was a result of the unique circumstances in LAC. OBJECTIVE This study aimed to (1) measure whether the pandemic was expanding or contracting in LAC when the WHO declared the end of COVID-19 as a public health emergency of international concern on May 5, 2023; (2) use dynamic and genomic surveillance methods to describe the history of the pandemic in the region and situate the window of the WHO declaration within the broader history; and (3) provide, with a focus on prevention policies, a historical context for the course of the pandemic in the region. METHODS In addition to updates of traditional surveillance data and dynamic panel estimates from the original study, we used data on sequenced SARS-CoV-2 variants from the Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data (GISAID) to identify the appearance and duration of variants of concern (VOCs). We used Nextclade nomenclature to collect clade designations from sequences and Pangolin nomenclature for lineage designations of SARS-CoV-2. Additionally, we conducted a 1-sided t test for whether the regional weekly speed (rate of novel COVID-19 transmission) was greater than an outbreak threshold of 10. We ran the test iteratively with 6 months of data across the period from August 2020 to May 2023. RESULTS The speed of pandemic spread for the region had remained below the outbreak threshold for 6 months by the time of the WHO declaration. Acceleration and jerk were also low and stable. Although the 1- and 7-day persistence coefficients remained statistically significant for the 120-day period ending on the week of May 5, 2023, the coefficients were relatively modest in magnitude (0.457 and 0.491, respectively). Furthermore, the shift parameters for either of the 2 most recent weeks around May 5, 2023, did not indicate any change in this clustering effect of cases on future cases. From December 2021 onward, Omicron was the predominant VOC in sequenced viral samples. The rolling t test of speed=10 became entirely insignificant from January 2023 onward. CONCLUSIONS Although COVID-19 continues to circulate in LAC, surveillance data suggest COVID-19 is endemic in the region and no longer reaches the threshold of the pandemic definition. However, the region experienced a high COVID-19 burden in the early stages of the pandemic, and prevention policies should be an immediate focus in future pandemics. Ahead of vaccination development, these policies can include widespread testing of individuals and an epidemiological task force with a contact-tracing system.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lori Ann Post
- Buehler Center for Health Policy and Economics, Robert J Havey, MD Institute for Global Health, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
| | - Scott A Wu
- Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
| | - Alan G Soetikno
- Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
| | - Egon A Ozer
- Department of Medicine, Division of Infectious Diseases, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
- Center for Pathogen Genomics and Microbial Evolution, Robert J Havey, MD Institute for Global Health, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
| | - Yingxuan Liu
- Buehler Center for Health Policy and Economics, Robert J Havey, MD Institute for Global Health, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
| | - Sarah B Welch
- Buehler Center for Health Policy and Economics, Robert J Havey, MD Institute for Global Health, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
| | - Claudia Hawkins
- Department of Medicine, Division of Infectious Diseases, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
- Center for Global Communicable and Emerging Infectious Diseases, Robert J Havey, MD Institute for Global Health, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
| | - Charles B Moss
- Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, United States
| | - Robert L Murphy
- Department of Medicine, Division of Infectious Diseases, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
- Robert J Havey, MD Institute for Global Health, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
| | - Maryann Mason
- Buehler Center for Health Policy and Economics, Robert J Havey, MD Institute for Global Health, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
| | - Robert J Havey
- Robert J Havey, MD Institute for Global Health, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
- Department of Medicine, General Internal Medicine and Geriatrics, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
| | - Alexander L Lundberg
- Buehler Center for Health Policy and Economics, Robert J Havey, MD Institute for Global Health, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
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Lundberg A, Ozer EA, Wu SA, Soetikno AG, Welch SB, Liu Y, Havey RJ, Murphy RL, Hawkins C, Mason M, Achenbach CJ, Post LA. Central Asian Surveillance Metrics and History of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Longitudinal Analyses. JMIR Public Health Surveill 2024. [PMID: 39013115 DOI: 10.2196/52318] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 07/18/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND This study updates the COVID-19 pandemic surveillance in Central Asia we first conducted in 2020 by providing two additional years of data for the region. The historical context provided through additional data can inform regional preparedness and early responses to infectious outbreaks of either the SARS-CoV-2 virus or future pathogens in Central Asia. OBJECTIVE First, we aim to measure whether there was an expansion or contraction in the pandemic in Central Asia when the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the end of the public health emergency for the COVID-19 pandemic on May 5, 2023. Second, we use dynamic and genomic surveillance methods to describe the history of the pandemic in the region and situate the window of the WHO declaration within the broader history. Third, we aim to provide historical context for the course of the pandemic in Central Asia. METHODS Traditional surveillance metrics, including counts and rates of COVID-19 transmissions and deaths, and enhanced surveillance indicators, including speed, acceleration, jerk, and persistence, were used to measure shifts in the pandemic. To identify the appearance and duration of variants of concern, we used data on sequenced SARS-CoV-2 variants from the Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data (GISAID). We used Nextclade nomenclature to collect clade designations from sequences and Pangolin nomenclature for lineage designations of SARS-CoV-2. Finally, we conducted a one-sided t-test for whether regional speed was greater than an outbreak threshold of ten. We ran the test iteratively with six months of data across the sample period. RESULTS Speed for the region had remained below the outbreak threshold for seven months by the time of the WHO declaration. Acceleration and jerk were also low and stable. While the 1- and 7-day persistence coefficients remained statistically significant, the coefficients were relatively small in magnitude (0.125 and 0.347, respectively). Furthermore, the shift parameters for either of the two most recent weeks around May 5, 2023, were both significant and negative, meaning the clustering effect of new COVID-19 cases became even smaller in the two weeks around the WHO declaration. From December 2021 onward, Omicron was the predominant variant of concern in sequenced viral samples. The rolling t-test of speed equal to ten became entirely insignificant for the first time in March of 2023. CONCLUSIONS While COVID-19 continues to circulate in Central Asia, the rate of transmission remained well below the threshold of an outbreak for seven months ahead of the WHO declaration. COVID-19 appeared to be endemic in the region and no longer reached the threshold of pandemic. Both standard and enhanced surveillance metrics suggest the pandemic had ended by the time of the WHO declaration.
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Affiliation(s)
- Alexander Lundberg
- Buehler Center for Health Policy and Economics, Robert J. Havey, MD Institute for Global Health, Northwestern University, 420 E. Superior St., Chicago, US
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, US
| | - Egon A Ozer
- Department of Medicine, Division of Infectious Diseases, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, US
- Center for Pathogen Genomics and Microbial Evolution, Robert J. Havey, MD Institute for Global Health, Northwestern University, Chicago, US
| | - Scott A Wu
- Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, US
| | - Alan G Soetikno
- Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, US
| | - Sarah B Welch
- Buehler Center for Health Policy and Economics, Robert J. Havey, MD Institute for Global Health, Northwestern University, 420 E. Superior St., Chicago, US
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, US
| | - Yingxuan Liu
- Buehler Center for Health Policy and Economics, Robert J. Havey, MD Institute for Global Health, Northwestern University, 420 E. Superior St., Chicago, US
| | - Robert J Havey
- Robert J. Havey, MD Institute for Global Health, Northwestern University, Chicago, US
- Department of Medicine, General Internal Medicine and Geriatrics, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, US
| | - Robert L Murphy
- Department of Medicine, Division of Infectious Diseases, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, US
- Robert J. Havey, MD Institute for Global Health, Northwestern University, Chicago, US
| | - Claudia Hawkins
- Department of Medicine, Division of Infectious Diseases, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, US
- Center for Global Communicable and Emerging Infectious Diseases, Robert J Havey, MD Institute for Global Health, Northwestern University,, Chicago, US
| | - Maryann Mason
- Buehler Center for Health Policy and Economics, Robert J. Havey, MD Institute for Global Health, Northwestern University, 420 E. Superior St., Chicago, US
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, US
| | - Chad J Achenbach
- Department of Medicine, Division of Infectious Diseases, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, US
- Robert J. Havey, MD Institute for Global Health, Northwestern University, Chicago, US
| | - Lori Ann Post
- Buehler Center for Health Policy and Economics, Robert J. Havey, MD Institute for Global Health, Northwestern University, 420 E. Superior St., Chicago, US
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, US
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7
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Yuan B, Zhao H, Li J. Health policy response to mobility during the pandemic: Evaluating the effectiveness using location‐based services big data. Int J Health Plann Manage 2022; 37:2836-2851. [DOI: 10.1002/hpm.3507] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/12/2021] [Revised: 04/12/2022] [Accepted: 05/11/2022] [Indexed: 12/12/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Bocong Yuan
- School of Tourism Management, Sun Yat‐sen University Guangzhou Guangdong China
| | - Hairong Zhao
- School of Tourism Management, Sun Yat‐sen University Guangzhou Guangdong China
| | - Jiannan Li
- Institute of Advanced Studies in Humanities and Social Sciences, Beijing Normal University Zhuhai China
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8
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Her PH, Saeed S, Tram KH, Bhatnagar SR. Novel mobility index tracks COVID-19 transmission following stay-at-home orders. Sci Rep 2022; 12:7654. [PMID: 35538129 PMCID: PMC9088135 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-022-10941-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/15/2021] [Accepted: 04/12/2022] [Indexed: 12/13/2022] Open
Abstract
Considering the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants and low vaccine access and uptake, minimizing human interactions remains an effective strategy to mitigate the spread of SARS-CoV-2. Using a functional principal component analysis, we created a multidimensional mobility index (MI) using six metrics compiled by SafeGraph from all counties in Illinois, Ohio, Michigan and Indiana between January 1 to December 8, 2020. Changes in mobility were defined as a time-updated 7-day rolling average. Associations between our MI and COVID-19 cases were estimated using a quasi-Poisson hierarchical generalized additive model adjusted for population density and the COVID-19 Community Vulnerability Index. Individual mobility metrics varied significantly by counties and by calendar time. More than 50% of the variability in the data was explained by the first principal component by each state, indicating good dimension reduction. While an individual metric of mobility was not associated with surges of COVID-19, our MI was independently associated with COVID-19 cases in all four states given varying time-lags. Following the expiration of stay-at-home orders, a single metric of mobility was not sensitive enough to capture the complexity of human interactions. Monitoring mobility can be an important public health tool, however, it should be modelled as a multidimensional construct.
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Affiliation(s)
- Peter Hyunwuk Her
- Department of Pharmacology and Therapeutics, McGill University, Montreal, Canada.,Department of Medical Biophysics, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada
| | - Sahar Saeed
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, Washington University School of Medicine, St. Louis, USA.,Department of Public Health Sciences, Queen's University, Ontario, Canada
| | - Khai Hoan Tram
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, USA
| | - Sahir R Bhatnagar
- Department of Epidemiology, Biostatistics and Occupational Health, McGill University, Montreal, Canada. .,Department of Diagnostic Radiology, McGill University, Montreal, Canada.
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9
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Lundberg AL, Lorenzo-Redondo R, Hultquist JF, Hawkins CA, Ozer EA, Welch SB, Prasad PVV, Achenbach CJ, White JI, Oehmke JF, Murphy RL, Havey RJ, Post LA. Overlapping Delta and Omicron Outbreaks: Dynamic Panel Data (Preprint). JMIR Public Health Surveill 2022; 8:e37377. [PMID: 35500140 PMCID: PMC9169703 DOI: 10.2196/37377] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/03/2022] [Revised: 03/25/2022] [Accepted: 04/29/2022] [Indexed: 11/17/2022] Open
Abstract
Background The Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 is more transmissible than prior variants of concern (VOCs). It has caused the largest outbreaks in the pandemic, with increases in mortality and hospitalizations. Early data on the spread of Omicron were captured in countries with relatively low case counts, so it was unclear how the arrival of Omicron would impact the trajectory of the pandemic in countries already experiencing high levels of community transmission of Delta. Objective The objective of this study is to quantify and explain the impact of Omicron on pandemic trajectories and how they differ between countries that were or were not in a Delta outbreak at the time Omicron occurred. Methods We used SARS-CoV-2 surveillance and genetic sequence data to classify countries into 2 groups: those that were in a Delta outbreak (defined by at least 10 novel daily transmissions per 100,000 population) when Omicron was first sequenced in the country and those that were not. We used trend analysis, survival curves, and dynamic panel regression models to compare outbreaks in the 2 groups over the period from November 1, 2021, to February 11, 2022. We summarized the outbreaks in terms of their peak rate of SARS-CoV-2 infections and the duration of time the outbreaks took to reach the peak rate. Results Countries that were already in an outbreak with predominantly Delta lineages when Omicron arrived took longer to reach their peak rate and saw greater than a twofold increase (2.04) in the average apex of the Omicron outbreak compared to countries that were not yet in an outbreak. Conclusions These results suggest that high community transmission of Delta at the time of the first detection of Omicron was not protective, but rather preluded larger outbreaks in those countries. Outbreak status may reflect a generally susceptible population, due to overlapping factors, including climate, policy, and individual behavior. In the absence of strong mitigation measures, arrival of a new, more transmissible variant in these countries is therefore more likely to lead to larger outbreaks. Alternately, countries with enhanced surveillance programs and incentives may be more likely to both exist in an outbreak status and detect more cases during an outbreak, resulting in a spurious relationship. Either way, these data argue against herd immunity mitigating future outbreaks with variants that have undergone significant antigenic shifts.
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Affiliation(s)
- Alexander L Lundberg
- Buehler Center for Health Policy and Economics, Robert J Havey, MD Institute for Global Health, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
| | - Ramon Lorenzo-Redondo
- Department of Medicine, Division of Infectious Diseases, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
- Center for Pathogen Genomics and Microbial Evolution, Robert J Havey, MD Institute for Global Health, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
| | - Judd F Hultquist
- Department of Medicine, Division of Infectious Diseases, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
- Center for Pathogen Genomics and Microbial Evolution, Robert J Havey, MD Institute for Global Health, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
| | - Claudia A Hawkins
- Department of Medicine, Division of Infectious Diseases, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
- Center for Global Communicable and Emerging Infectious Diseases, Robert J Havey, MD Institute for Global Health, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
| | - Egon A Ozer
- Department of Medicine, Division of Infectious Diseases, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
- Center for Pathogen Genomics and Microbial Evolution, Robert J Havey, MD Institute for Global Health, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
| | - Sarah B Welch
- Buehler Center for Health Policy and Economics, Robert J Havey, MD Institute for Global Health, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
| | - P V Vara Prasad
- Sustainable Intensification Innovation Lab, Kansas State University, Manhattan, KS, United States
| | - Chad J Achenbach
- Department of Medicine, Division of Infectious Diseases, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
- Robert J Havey, MD Institute for Global Health, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
| | - Janine I White
- Buehler Center for Health Policy and Economics, Robert J Havey, MD Institute for Global Health, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
| | - James F Oehmke
- Buehler Center for Health Policy and Economics, Robert J Havey, MD Institute for Global Health, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
| | - Robert L Murphy
- Department of Medicine, Division of Infectious Diseases, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
- Robert J Havey, MD Institute for Global Health, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
| | - Robert J Havey
- Robert J Havey, MD Institute for Global Health, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
- Department of Medicine, General Internal Medicine and Geriatrics, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
| | - Lori A Post
- Buehler Center for Health Policy and Economics, Robert J Havey, MD Institute for Global Health, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
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10
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The Public Health Governance of the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Bibliometric Analysis. Healthcare (Basel) 2022; 10:healthcare10020299. [PMID: 35206913 PMCID: PMC8872432 DOI: 10.3390/healthcare10020299] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/12/2021] [Revised: 01/30/2022] [Accepted: 02/01/2022] [Indexed: 01/08/2023] Open
Abstract
The 2019 global outbreak of COVID-19 has had a huge impact on public health governance systems around the world. In response, numerous scholars have conducted research on public health governance in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. This paper provides a bibliometric analysis of 1437 documents retrieved from the Web of Science (WoS) core collection database, with 49,695 references. It analyses the research directions, countries of publications, core journals, leading authors and institutions and important publications. The paper also summarises research trends by analysing the co-occurrence of keywords, frequently cited documents and co-cited references. It summarises the global responses to COVID-19, including public health interventions and a range of supporting policies based on the features and impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. The paper provides comprehensive literary support and clear lines of research for future studies on the governance or regulation of public health emergencies.
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11
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Lundberg AL, Lorenzo-Redondo R, Ozer EA, Hawkins CA, Hultquist JF, Welch SB, Prasad PVV, Oehmke JF, Achenbach CJ, Murphy RL, White JI, Havey RJ, Post LA. Has Omicron Changed the Evolution of the Pandemic? (Preprint). JMIR Public Health Surveill 2021; 8:e35763. [PMID: 35072638 PMCID: PMC8812144 DOI: 10.2196/35763] [Citation(s) in RCA: 23] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/22/2021] [Revised: 01/17/2022] [Accepted: 01/22/2022] [Indexed: 02/06/2023] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Alexander L Lundberg
- Buehler Center for Health Policy and Economics, Robert J. Havey, MD Institute for Global Health, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
| | - Ramon Lorenzo-Redondo
- Department of Medicine, Division of Infectious Diseases, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
- Center for Pathogen Genomics and Microbial Evolution, Robert J. Havey, MD Institute for Global Health, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
| | - Egon A Ozer
- Department of Medicine, Division of Infectious Diseases, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
- Center for Pathogen Genomics and Microbial Evolution, Robert J. Havey, MD Institute for Global Health, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
| | - Claudia A Hawkins
- Department of Medicine, Division of Infectious Diseases, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
- Center for Global Communicable and Emerging Infectious Diseases, Robert J. Havey, MD Institute for Global Health, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
| | - Judd F Hultquist
- Department of Medicine, Division of Infectious Diseases, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
- Center for Pathogen Genomics and Microbial Evolution, Robert J. Havey, MD Institute for Global Health, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
| | - Sarah B Welch
- Buehler Center for Health Policy and Economics, Robert J. Havey, MD Institute for Global Health, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
| | - P V Vara Prasad
- Sustainable Intensification Innovation Lab, Kansas State University, Manhattan, KS, United States
| | - James F Oehmke
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
| | - Chad J Achenbach
- Department of Medicine, Division of Infectious Diseases, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
- Robert J. Havey, MD Institute for Global Health, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
| | - Robert L Murphy
- Department of Medicine, Division of Infectious Diseases, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
- Robert J. Havey, MD Institute for Global Health, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
| | - Janine I White
- Buehler Center for Health Policy and Economics, Robert J. Havey, MD Institute for Global Health, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
| | - Robert J Havey
- Robert J. Havey, MD Institute for Global Health, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
- Department of Medicine, General Internal Medicine and Geriatrics, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
| | - Lori Ann Post
- Buehler Center for Health Policy and Economics, Robert J. Havey, MD Institute for Global Health, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
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12
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Oehmke TB, Moss CB, Oehmke JF. COVID-19 Surveillance Updates in U.S. Metropolitan Areas-A Dynamic Panel Data Modeling Approach: Is the 'Delta wave' over? JMIR Public Health Surveill 2021; 8:e28737. [PMID: 34882569 PMCID: PMC8914733 DOI: 10.2196/28737] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/15/2021] [Revised: 09/30/2021] [Accepted: 11/30/2021] [Indexed: 12/03/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Despite the availability of vaccines, the US incidence of new COVID-19 cases per day nearly doubled from the beginning of July to the end of August 2021, fueled largely by the rapid spread of the Delta variant. While the “Delta wave” appears to have peaked nationally, some states and municipalities continue to see elevated numbers of new cases. Vigilant surveillance including at a metropolitan level can help identify any reignition and validate continued and strong public health policy responses in problem localities. Objective This surveillance report aimed to provide up-to-date information for the 25 largest US metropolitan areas about the rapidity of descent in the number of new cases following the Delta wave peak, as well as any potential reignition of the pandemic associated with declining vaccine effectiveness over time, new variants, or other factors. Methods COVID-19 pandemic dynamics for the 25 largest US metropolitan areas were analyzed through September 19, 2021, using novel metrics of speed, acceleration, jerk, and 7-day persistence, calculated from the observed data on the cumulative number of cases as reported by USAFacts. Statistical analysis was conducted using dynamic panel data models estimated with the Arellano-Bond regression techniques. The results are presented in tabular and graphic forms for visual interpretation. Results On average, speed in the 25 largest US metropolitan areas declined from 34 new cases per day per 100,000 population, during the week ending August 15, 2021, to 29 new cases per day per 100,000 population, during the week ending September 19, 2021. This average masks important differences across metropolitan areas. For example, Miami’s speed decreased from 105 for the week ending August 15, 2021, to 40 for the week ending September 19, 2021. Los Angeles, San Francisco, Riverside, and San Diego had decreasing speed over the sample period and ended with single-digit speeds for the week ending September 19, 2021. However, Boston, Washington DC, Detroit, Minneapolis, Denver, and Charlotte all had their highest speed of the sample during the week ending September 19, 2021. These cities, as well as Houston and Baltimore, had positive acceleration for the week ending September 19, 2021. Conclusions There is great variation in epidemiological curves across US metropolitan areas, including increasing numbers of new cases in 8 of the largest 25 metropolitan areas for the week ending September 19, 2021. These trends, including the possibility of waning vaccine effectiveness and the emergence of resistant variants, strongly indicate the need for continued surveillance and perhaps a return to more restrictive public health guidelines for some areas.
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Affiliation(s)
- Theresa B Oehmke
- Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Berkeley, 202 O'Brien Hall, Berkeley, US
| | - Charles B Moss
- Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences, University of Florida, Gainesville, US
| | - James F Oehmke
- Department of Emergency Medicine, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, US
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13
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Welch SB, Kulasekere DA, Prasad PVV, Moss CB, Murphy RL, Achenbach CJ, Ison MG, Resnick D, Singh L, White J, Issa TZ, Culler K, Boctor MJ, Mason M, Oehmke JF, Faber JMM, Post LA. The Interplay Between Policy and COVID-19 Outbreaks in South Asia: Longitudinal Trend Analysis of Surveillance Data. JMIR Public Health Surveill 2021; 7:e24251. [PMID: 34081593 PMCID: PMC8213065 DOI: 10.2196/24251] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/09/2020] [Revised: 03/18/2021] [Accepted: 06/03/2021] [Indexed: 12/11/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND COVID-19 transmission rates in South Asia initially were under control when governments implemented health policies aimed at controlling the pandemic such as quarantines, travel bans, and border, business, and school closures. Governments have since relaxed public health restrictions, which resulted in significant outbreaks, shifting the global epicenter of COVID-19 to India. Ongoing systematic public health surveillance of the COVID-19 pandemic is needed to inform disease prevention policy to re-establish control over the pandemic within South Asia. OBJECTIVE This study aimed to inform public health leaders about the state of the COVID-19 pandemic, how South Asia displays differences within and among countries and other global regions, and where immediate action is needed to control the outbreaks. METHODS We extracted COVID-19 data spanning 62 days from public health registries and calculated traditional and enhanced surveillance metrics. We use an empirical difference equation to measure the daily number of cases in South Asia as a function of the prior number of cases, the level of testing, and weekly shifts in variables with a dynamic panel model that was estimated using the generalized method of moments approach by implementing the Arellano-Bond estimator in R. RESULTS Traditional surveillance metrics indicate that South Asian countries have an alarming outbreak, with India leading the region with 310,310 new daily cases in accordance with the 7-day moving average. Enhanced surveillance indicates that while Pakistan and Bangladesh still have a high daily number of new COVID-19 cases (n=4819 and n=3878, respectively), their speed of new infections declined from April 12-25, 2021, from 2.28 to 2.18 and 3.15 to 2.35 daily new infections per 100,000 population, respectively, which suggests that their outbreaks are decreasing and that these countries are headed in the right direction. In contrast, India's speed of new infections per 100,000 population increased by 52% during the same period from 14.79 to 22.49 new cases per day per 100,000 population, which constitutes an increased outbreak. CONCLUSIONS Relaxation of public health restrictions and the spread of novel variants fueled the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in South Asia. Public health surveillance indicates that shifts in policy and the spread of new variants correlate with a drastic expansion in the pandemic, requiring immediate action to mitigate the spread of COVID-19. Surveillance is needed to inform leaders whether policies help control the pandemic.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sarah B Welch
- Buehler Center for Health Policy & Economics, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
| | | | - P V Vara Prasad
- Sustainable Intensification Innovation Lab, Department of Crop Ecophysiology, Kansas State University, Manhattan, KS, United States
| | - Charles B Moss
- Food and Resource Economics Department, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, United States
| | - Robert Leo Murphy
- Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
| | - Chad J Achenbach
- Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
| | - Michael G Ison
- Divison of Infectious Diseases, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
| | - Danielle Resnick
- International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, DC, United States
| | - Lauren Singh
- Buehler Center for Health Policy & Economics, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
| | - Janine White
- Buehler Center for Health Policy & Economics, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
| | - Tariq Z Issa
- Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
| | - Kasen Culler
- Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
| | - Michael J Boctor
- Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
| | - Maryann Mason
- Buehler Center for Health Policy & Economics, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
| | - James Francis Oehmke
- Buehler Center for Health Policy & Economics, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
| | | | - Lori Ann Post
- Buehler Center for Health Policy & Economics, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
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14
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Post L, Mason M, Singh LN, Wleklinski NP, Moss CB, Mohammad H, Issa TZ, Akhetuamhen AI, Brandt CA, Welch SB, Oehmke JF. Impact of Firearm Surveillance on Gun Control Policy: Regression Discontinuity Analysis. JMIR Public Health Surveill 2021; 7:e26042. [PMID: 33783360 PMCID: PMC8103291 DOI: 10.2196/26042] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/19/2021] [Revised: 03/24/2021] [Accepted: 03/30/2021] [Indexed: 02/06/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Public mass shootings are a significant public health problem that require ongoing systematic surveillance to test and inform policies that combat gun injuries. Although there is widespread agreement that something needs to be done to stop public mass shootings, opinions on exactly which policies that entails vary, such as the prohibition of assault weapons and large-capacity magazines. OBJECTIVE The aim of this study was to determine if the Federal Assault Weapons Ban (FAWB) (1994-2004) reduced the number of public mass shootings while it was in place. METHODS We extracted public mass shooting surveillance data from the Violence Project that matched our inclusion criteria of 4 or more fatalities in a public space during a single event. We performed regression discontinuity analysis, taking advantage of the imposition of the FAWB, which included a prohibition on large-capacity magazines in addition to assault weapons. We estimated a regression model of the 5-year moving average number of public mass shootings per year for the period of 1966 to 2019 controlling for population growth and homicides in general, introduced regression discontinuities in the intercept and a time trend for years coincident with the federal legislation (ie, 1994-2004), and also allowed for a differential effect of the homicide rate during this period. We introduced a second set of trend and intercept discontinuities for post-FAWB years to capture the effects of termination of the policy. We used the regression results to predict what would have happened from 1995 to 2019 had there been no FAWB and also to project what would have happened from 2005 onward had it remained in place. RESULTS The FAWB resulted in a significant decrease in public mass shootings, number of gun deaths, and number of gun injuries. We estimate that the FAWB prevented 11 public mass shootings during the decade the ban was in place. A continuation of the FAWB would have prevented 30 public mass shootings that killed 339 people and injured an additional 1139 people. CONCLUSIONS This study demonstrates the utility of public health surveillance on gun violence. Surveillance informs policy on whether a ban on assault weapons and large-capacity magazines reduces public mass shootings. As society searches for effective policies to prevent the next mass shooting, we must consider the overwhelming evidence that bans on assault weapons and/or large-capacity magazines work.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lori Post
- Buehler Center for Health Policy and Economics, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
| | - Maryann Mason
- Buehler Center for Health Policy and Economics, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
| | - Lauren Nadya Singh
- Buehler Center for Health Policy and Economics, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
| | | | - Charles B Moss
- Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences, University of Florida, Gainsville, FL, United States
| | - Hassan Mohammad
- Buehler Center for Health Policy and Economics, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
| | - Tariq Z Issa
- Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
| | | | - Cynthia A Brandt
- Yale Center for Medical Informatics, Yale School of Medicine, Yale University, New Haven, CT, United States
| | - Sarah B Welch
- Buehler Center for Health Policy and Economics, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
| | - James Francis Oehmke
- Buehler Center for Health Policy and Economics, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, IL, United States
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