A predictive model of progression of CKD to ESRD in a predialysis pediatric interdisciplinary program

Predicting pediatric kidney disease progression-are 3 variables all you need?

Accurate estimation of chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression risk is vital for clinical decision-making. Existing risk equations lack validation in pediatric CKD populations. Ng et al. developed new risk equations using the CKD in Children and European Study Consortium for Chronic Kidney Disorders Affecting Pediatric Patients cohorts. The elementary model, incorporating estimated glomerular filtration rate, urine protein-creatinine ratio, and diagnosis, exhibited excellent discrimination and calibration at external validation. External validation of enriched models is pending. The equations have the potential to aid pediatric CKD centers in patient counseling and care planning.

Chronic kidney disease in children: an update

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a major healthcare issue worldwide. However, the prevalence of pediatric CKD has never been systematically assessed and consistent information is lacking in this population. The current definition of CKD is based on glomerular filtration rate (GFR) and the extent of albuminuria. Given the physiological age-related modification of GFR in the first years of life, the definition of CKD is challenging per se in the pediatric population, resulting in high risk of underdiagnosis in this population, treatment delays and untailored clinical management. The advent and spreading of massive-parallel sequencing technology has prompted a profound revision of the epidemiology and the causes of CKD in children, supporting the hypothesis that CKD is much more frequent than currently reported in children and adolescents. This acquired knowledge will eventually converge in the identification of the molecular pathways and cellular response to damage, with new specific therapeutic targets to control disease progression and clinical features of children with CKD. In this review, we will focus on recent innovations in the field of pediatric CKD and in particular those where advances in knowledge have become available in the last years, with the aim of providing a new perspective on CKD in children and adolescents.

Renal Survival of Chronic Kidney Disease Patients in a Tertiary Referral Hospital in Malaysia

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) represents a major public health issue, which then progresses to end-stage renal disease (ESRD) sooner or later. This retrospective cohort study aimed to determine the renal survival time of CKD patients. In total, 247 CKD patients in one of the tertiary referral hospitals in Malaysia between January 2005 and December 2015 were enrolled. All CKD patients were included if they were dependent on dialysis. Patients who were transferred out and those with incomplete records were excluded from the study. The renal survival time was calculated from the time of the first diagnosis of CKD to a confirmed ESRD diagnosis or the use of dialysis. In total, 193 (78.1%) CKD patients progressed to ESRD. The mean age of the ESRD patients was 53 years old. The majority of ESRD patients were male (57.0%) and of Malay ethnicity (89.6%). The most common comorbidities among ESRD patients were hypertension (92.2%) and diabetes mellitus (85.5%). The majority of patients were in Stage IV and V (97.9%). The overall renal survival time of CKD patients who develop ESRD was 26 months (95% confidence interval: 20.41, 31.59). Patients who smoked (P = 0.001), had hyperlipidemia (P <0.001) and consumed lipid-lowering agents (P = 0.004) had a significant P-value in the log-rank test. The progression of CKD from diagnosis to ESRD was within 2 years. Therefore, early recognition of CKD is important to improve patients' outcomes and prolong their renal survival time.

Clinical outcomes of renin angiotensin system inhibitor-based dual antihypertensive regimens in chronic kidney disease: a network meta-analysis

This study comprehensively investigated clinical outcomes associated with renin angiotensin system inhibitor-based dual antihypertensive regimens in non-dialysis chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients. Keyword searches of databases were performed per PRISMA-NMA guidelines. Frequentist network meta-analysis were conducted with 16 head-to-head randomized controlled trials. The effect sizes of dichotomous and continuous variables were estimated with odds ratio (OR) and standard mean differences (SMD), respectively. The protocol is registered in PROSPERO (CRD42022365927). Dual antihypertensive regimens with combination of angiotensin receptor blockers (ARB) and calcium channel blockers (CCB) demonstrated substantially reduced odd of major cardiovascular disease (CVD) events over other regimens including angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitor (ACEI) monotherapy (OR 3.19) and ARB monotherapy (OR 2.64). Most significant reductions in systolic (SBP) and diastolic blood pressure (DBP) were observed with ARB-based CCB dual regimen over ACEI monotherapy (SMD 17.60 SBP and 9.40 for DBP), ACEI-based CCB regimen (SMD 12.90 for SBP and 9.90 for DBP), and ARB monotherapy (SMD 13.20 for SBP and 5.00 for DBP). However, insignificant differences were noticed for the odds of hyperkalemia, end stage renal disease progression, and all-cause mortality. ARB-based CCB regimen has the greatest benefits on BP reduction as well as major CVD risks in non-dialysis CKD patients.

HLA types and their association with end-stage renal disease in Vietnamese patients: A cross-sectional study

End-stage renal disease (ESRD) is a significant public health issue with an estimated increasing burden over the next 10 years. Early prediction of patients with a high risk of ESRD progression is crucial to monitor and initiate appropriate interventions, of which HLA alleles have been proposed as promising biomarkers. This cross-sectional study described HLA profiles of a Vietnamese cohort and investigated the association between HLA alleles and ESRD. All ESRD patients who were waitlisted to receive kidney transplant and potential donors in a tertiary hospital from March 2018 to April 2020 were invited to participate in the study. A total of 458 participants were eligible, including 126 ESRD patients and 126 family-related donors, 98 ESRD patients and 108 unrelated donors. HLA typing was performed using Luminex-based PCR-SSO technology. We found HLA-A*02, A*11, A*24, B*15, B*07, DRB1*12, DRB1*09, DQA1*01, DQA1*06, DQB1*03 and DQB1*05 as the most common alleles, which is similar to the general Vietnamese population and other countries in East and South-east Asia. HLA-B*07 (P = .040), DQA1*06 (P = .031), and DQB1*03 (P = .036) were susceptible to ESRD, while HLA-B*27 (P = .024) and DQB1*02 (P = .006) were associated with a decreased risk of ESRD.

APOL1 Genotype, Proteinuria, and the Risk of Kidney Failure: A Secondary Analysis of the AASK (African American Study of Kidney Disease and Hypertension) and CRIC (Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort) Studies

Rationale & Objective

Patients with a high-risk Apolipoprotein L1 (APOL1) genotype are more likely to develop chronic kidney disease and kidney failure. It is unclear whether this increased risk is entirely mediated by the development of proteinuria.

Study Design

Retrospective observational study of the African American Study of Kidney Disease and Hypertension cohort and Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort.

Exposures & Predictors

Self-identified race (Black/non-Black) and presence of high-risk APOL1 genotype. The primary model was adjusted for age, sex, diabetes, estimated glomerular filtration rate, and urinary protein-creatinine ratio.

Outcomes

Time to kidney failure defined as time to dialysis or transplantation.

Analytical Approach

We used Cox proportional hazard models to study how proteinuria mediates the association between APOL1 and kidney failure. We modeled proteinuria at baseline and as a time-varying covariate.

Results

A high-risk APOL1 genotype was associated with a significantly higher risk of kidney failure, even for patients with minimal proteinuria (HR, 1.87; 95% CI, 1.23-2.84). The association was not significant among patients with high proteinuria (HR, 1.22; 95% CI, 0.93-1.61). When modeling proteinuria as a time-varying covariate, a high-risk APOL1 genotype was associated with higher kidney failure risk even among patients who never developed proteinuria (HR, 2.04; 95% CI, 1.10-3.77). Compared to non-Black patients, Black patients without the high-risk genotype did not have higher risk of kidney failure (HR, 0.96; 95% CI, 0.85-1.10).

Limitations

Two datasets were combined to increase statistical power. Limited generalizability beyond the study cohorts. Residual confounding common to observational studies.

Conclusions

A high-risk APOL1 genotype is significantly associated with increased kidney failure risk, especially among patients without baseline proteinuria. Although our results suggest that the risk is partially mediated through proteinuria, higher kidney failure risk was present even among patients who never developed proteinuria. Providers should consider screening for the high-risk APOL1 genotype, especially among Black patients without proteinuria in populations with chronic kidney disease.

Hemostasis and oxidative stress in chronic kidney disease in children and adolescents

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) can be defined as the progressive loss of renal function, characterized by decreased glomerular filtration rate (GFR). The etiology of CKD in childhood is mainly associated with congenital anomalies of the kidneys and urinary tract (CAKUT) and to glomerular diseases. The goal of this study was to investigate the hemostasis and oxidative stress in pediatric CKD of different etiologies. 54 CKD children and adolescents and 52 controls were enrolled in this study. The evaluation of hemostasis was carried out by determination of D-Dimer (D-Di) and plasminogen activator inhibitor (PAI-1) plasma levels, while oxidative stress by thiobarbituric acid reactive substances (TBARS) levels, protein carbonyl content, plasma antioxidant capacity (MTT) and ascorbate. The D-Di was increased in CAKUT stage 3 or 4 patients compared to those with glomerular disease. PAI-1 was increased in patients with glomerular disease compared to CAKUT. Carbonyl protein content was higher in the control group compared to glomerular disease stage 3 or 4 patients. Our findings showed that the reduction in GFR is associated with a state of hypercoagulability. The analysis of integrated networks showed an expansion of connections among hemostatic and oxidative stress markers in CKD children and adolescents comparing to controls.

Multidisciplinary treatment for patients with chronic kidney disease in pre-dialysis minimizes costs: a four-year retrospective cohort analysis

INTRODUCTION

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) can progress to end-stage renal disease (ESRD), and clinical studies show that this progression can be slowed. The objective of this study was to estimate the costs to Brazil's public health system (SUS) throughout the course of CKD in the pre-dialysis stage compared to the costs to the SUS of dialysis treatment (DT).

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study was conducted to analyze clinical and laboratory variables; the outcome analyzed was need for DT. To assess cost, a microcosting survey was conducted according to the Methodological Guidelines for Economic Evaluations in Healthcare and the National Program for Cost Management, both recommended by the Brazilian Ministry of Health for economic studies.

RESULTS

A total of 5,689 patients were followed between 2011 and 2014, and 537 met the inclusion criteria. Average costs increased substantially as the disease progressed. The average cost incurred in stage G1 in Brazilian reals was R$ 7,110.78, (US$1,832.06) and in stage G5, it was R$ 26,814.08 (US$6,908.53), accumulated over the four years.

CONCLUSION

A pre-dialysis care program may reduce by R$ 33,023.12 ± 1,676.80 (US$ 8,508.26 ± 432.02) the average cost for each year of DT avoided, which is sufficient to cover the program's operation, minimizing cost. These results signal to public health policy makers the real possibility of achieving significant cost reduction in the medium term for CKD care (4 years), to a program that disbursed R$ 24 billion (US$ 6.8 billion) for DT in Brazil between 2009 and 2018.

Sex and Glomerular Filtration Rate Trajectories in Children

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Differences in CKD progression by sex have been hypothesized to explain disparities in access to kidney transplantation in children. This study aims to identify distinct trajectories of eGFR decline and to investigate the association of sex with eGFR decline.

DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, & MEASUREMENTS

We used data from the CKD in Children study. Latent class mixed models were used to identify eGFR trajectories and patient characteristics were compared between trajectories. Progression was studied to two outcomes: ESKD (dialysis or transplantation) and a combined outcome of ESKD or 50% eGFR decline from baseline, using multivariable parametric failure time models.

RESULTS

Among 888 patients, 613 with nonglomerular and 275 with glomerular diseases, we observed four and two distinct GFR trajectories, respectively. Among patients with nonglomerular diseases, there was a higher proportion of males in the group with a low baseline GFR. This group had an increased risk of ESKD or 50% GFR decline, despite a similar absolute decline in GFR. Eight patients with nonglomerular diseases, mostly males with obstructive uropathies, had a more rapid absolute GFR decline. However, the association between male sex and rapid absolute GFR decline was NS after adjustment for age, baseline GFR, and proteinuria. Among patients with glomerular diseases, a subgroup including mostly females with systemic immunologic diseases or crescentic GN had a rapid absolute GFR decline.

CONCLUSIONS

This study identifies different trajectories of CKD progression in children and found a faster progression of CKD in females in patients with glomerular diseases, but no significant sex difference in patients with nonglomerular diseases. The differences in progression seem likely explained by sex differences in the underlying primary kidney disease and in baseline GFR rather than by a direct effect of sex on progression.

A clinical predictive model of renal injury in children with isolated antenatal hydronephrosis

Background

Antenatal hydronephrosis (ANH) affects ∼1-5% of pregnancies. The aim of this study was to develop a clinical prediction model of renal injury in a large cohort of infants with isolated ANH.

Methods

This is a longitudinal cohort study of 447 infants with ANH admitted since birth between 1989 and 2015 at a tertiary care center. The primary endpoint was time until the occurrence of a composite event of renal injury, which includes proteinuria, hypertension and chronic kidney disease (CKD). A predictive model was developed using a Cox proportional hazards model and evaluated by C-statistics.

Results

Renal pelvic dilatation (RPD) was classified into two groups [Grades 1-2 (n = 255) versus Grades 3-4 (n = 192)]. The median follow-up time was 6.4 years (interquartile range 2.8-12.5). Thirteen patients (2.9%) developed proteinuria, 6 (1.3%) hypertension and 14 (3.1%) CKD Stage 2. All events occurred in patients with RPD Grades 3-4. After adjustment, three covariables remained as predictors of the composite event: creatinine {hazard ratio [HR] 1.27, [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.05-1.56]}, renal parenchyma thickness at birth [HR 0.78(95% CI 0.625-0.991)] and recurrent urinary tract infections [HR 4.52 (95% CI 1.49-13.6)]. The probability of renal injury at 15 years of age was estimated as 0, 15 and 24% for patients assigned to the low-risk, medium-risk and high-risk groups, respectively (P < 0.001).

Conclusion

Our findings indicate an uneventful clinical course for patients with Society for Fetal Urology (SFU) Grades 1-2 ANH. Conversely, for infants with SFU Grades 3-4 ANH, our prediction model enabled the identification of a subgroup of patients with increased risk of renal injury over time.

Comparison and development of machine learning tools in the prediction of chronic kidney disease progression

BACKGROUND

Urinary protein quantification is critical for assessing the severity of chronic kidney disease (CKD). However, the current procedure for determining the severity of CKD is completed through evaluating 24-h urinary protein, which is inconvenient during follow-up.

OBJECTIVE

To quickly predict the severity of CKD using more easily available demographic and blood biochemical features during follow-up, we developed and compared several predictive models using statistical, machine learning and neural network approaches.

METHODS

The clinical and blood biochemical results from 551 patients with proteinuria were collected. Thirteen blood-derived tests and 5 demographic features were used as non-urinary clinical variables to predict the 24-h urinary protein outcome response. Nine predictive models were established and compared, including logistic regression, Elastic Net, lasso regression, ridge regression, support vector machine, random forest, XGBoost, neural network and k-nearest neighbor. The AU-ROC, sensitivity (recall), specificity, accuracy, log-loss and precision of each of the models were evaluated. The effect sizes of each variable were analysed and ranked.

RESULTS

The linear models including Elastic Net, lasso regression, ridge regression and logistic regression showed the highest overall predictive power, with an average AUC and a precision above 0.87 and 0.8, respectively. Logistic regression ranked first, reaching an AUC of 0.873, with a sensitivity and specificity of 0.83 and 0.82, respectively. The model with the highest sensitivity was Elastic Net (0.85), while XGBoost showed the highest specificity (0.83). In the effect size analyses, we identified that ALB, Scr, TG, LDL and EGFR had important impacts on the predictability of the models, while other predictors such as CRP, HDL and SNA were less important.

CONCLUSIONS

Blood-derived tests could be applied as non-urinary predictors during outpatient follow-up. Features in routine blood tests, including ALB, Scr, TG, LDL and EGFR levels, showed predictive ability for CKD severity. The developed online tool can facilitate the prediction of proteinuria progress during follow-up in clinical practice.

Posterior urethral valves: comparison of clinical outcomes between postnatal and antenatal cohorts

BACKGROUND

Posterior urethral valves (PUVs) constitute the most common infravesical urinary obstruction in boys and are often accompanied by severe consequences to the lower and upper urinary tract. Currently, about two-thirds of diagnosis of PUVs has been suspected by prenatal ultrasonography findings. The aim of this study was to compare long-term clinical outcomes in two groups of patients with PUVs, with antenatal vs. postnatal diagnosis.

STUDY DESIGN

This was a retrospective cohort study of 173 patients with PUVs systematically followed up in a tertiary center. Median follow-up time was 66.5 months (interquartile range [IQ], 11.4-147.9 months) for those patients who survived neonatal period. Seventy-nine (45.6%) patients were followed up for more than 5 years and 55 (32%) for more than 10 years. For analysis, the cohort was stratified into two groups according to the clinical presentation (prenatal vs. postnatal). The events of interest were urinary tract infection (UTI), surgical interventions, proteinuria, hypertension, chronic kidney disease (CKD), and death. Survival analyses were performed to evaluate time until occurrence of the events.

RESULTS

Sixty-two patients (35.8%) were diagnosed by fetal sonography. Patients of postnatal group presented a higher incidence rate of UTI episodes (6.5, 95% confidence interval [CI], 4.9-8.3) than antenatal group (1.2, 95% CI, 0.4-2.7) (P < 0.001). Thirty-six patients (21%) presented hypertension, and 77 (44.5%) had persistent mild proteinuria. There was no significant difference in the estimated incidence of hypertension (P = 0.28) and proteinuria (P = 0.78) between antenatal and postnatal groups. The cumulative incidence of CKD stage ≥3 was estimated to be about 37% at 10 years of age, and 56% at 18 years of age. By survival analysis, there was no significant difference in the estimated incidence of CKD stage ≥3 (log-rank = 0.32, P = 0.57) and CKD stage 5 (log-rank = 1.08, P = 0.28, Figure) between antenatal and postnatal groups. Of 173 patients included in the analysis, 13 (7.5%) died during follow-up with a median age of 2.6 months (IQ, 15 days-62 months). Survival analyses have not shown any significant difference in the estimated incidence of death between antenatal and postnatal groups (log-rank = 1.38, P = 0.24).

CONCLUSION

The study findings did not corroborate the initial hypothesis that the rates of renal function declining in patients with PUVs would be attenuated by an early diagnosis and intervention after antenatal diagnosis.

A clinical predictive model of renal injury in children with congenital solitary functioning kidney

BACKGROUND

Solitary functioning kidney (SFK) is an important condition in the spectrum of congenital anomalies of the kidney and urinary tract. The aim of this study was to describe the risk factors for renal injury in a cohort of patients with congenital SFK.

METHODS

In this retrospective cohort study, 162 patients with SFK were systematically followed up (median, 8.5 years). The primary endpoint was time until the occurrence of a composite event of renal injury, which includes proteinuria, hypertension, and chronic kidney disease (CKD). A predictive model was developed using Cox proportional hazards model and evaluated by c statistics.

RESULTS

Among 162 children with SFK included in the analysis, 132 (81.5%) presented multicystic dysplastic kidney, 20 (12.3%) renal hypodysplasia, and 10 (6.2%) unilateral renal agenesis. Of 162 patients included in the analysis, 10 (6.2%) presented persistent proteinuria, 11 (6.8%) had hypertension, 9 (5.6%) developed CKD stage ≥ 3, and 18 (11%) developed the composite outcome. After adjustment by the Cox model, three variables remained as independent predictors of the composite event: creatinine (HR, 3.93; P < 0.001), recurrent urinary tract infection (UTI) (HR, 5.05; P = 0.002), and contralateral renal length at admission (HR, 0.974; P = 0.002). The probability of the composite event at 10 years of age was estimated as 3%, 11%, and 56% for patients assigned to the low-risk, medium-risk, and high-risk groups, respectively (P < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Our findings have shown an overall low risk of renal injury for most of infants with congenital SFK. Nevertheless, our prediction model enabled the identification of a subgroup of patients with an increased risk of renal injury over time.

Predicting outcomes of chronic kidney disease from EMR data based on Random Forest Regression

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is prevalent across the world, and kidney function is well defined by an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). The progression of kidney disease can be predicted if the future eGFR can be accurately estimated using predictive analytics. In this study, we developed and validated a prediction model of eGFR by data extracted from a regional health system. This dataset includes demographic, clinical and laboratory information from primary care clinics. The model was built using Random Forest regression and evaluated using Goodness-of-fit statistics and discrimination metrics. After data preprocessing, the patient cohort for model development and validation contained 61,740 patients. The final model included eGFR, age, gender, body mass index (BMI), obesity, hypertension, and diabetes, which achieved a mean coefficient of determination of 0.95. The estimated eGFRs were used to classify patients into CKD stages with high macro-averaged and micro-averaged metrics. In conclusion, a model using real-world electronic medical records (EMR) data can accurately predict future kidney functions and provide clinical decision support.

Factors associated with long-term progression of pediatric chronic kidney disease of nonglomerular etiologies

BACKGROUND/PURPOSE

The aims of this study were to determine the long-term associated factors for chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression in a pediatric group with non-glomerular (non-GN) etiologies.

METHODS

Pediatric patients with a presumptive diagnosis of CKD were enrolled to this study. Recorded information included demographic and laboratory information. We included the patients with non-GN etiologies and investigated the factors including systolic and diastolic blood pressure (BP), proteinuria, and anemia status in association with reductions in the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR).

RESULTS

A total of 308 children were enrolled and the mean duration of follow-up was 4.40 ± 3.53 years. Median baseline age was 5 years old and the males represented 55% of all patients. One-unit increased baseline systolic BP z-score was associated with 1.2 ml/min per 1.73 m² (95% CI = -2 to -0.5) faster rate of eGFR decline. The presence of baseline proteinuria and anemia were also associated with 4.1 ml/min per 1.73 m² (95% CI = -5.7 to -2.5) and 2.2 ml/min per 1.73 m² (95% CI = -3.6 to -0.8) more rapid eGFR declination, respectively. Hypertension, anemia and proteinuria during the follow-up were also associated with 3.25 ml/min per 1.73 m² (95% CI = -5.32 to -1.18), 4.34 ml/min per 1.73 m² (95% CI = -7.25 to -1.43) and 4.97 ml/min per 1.73 m² (95% CI = -8.23 to -1.71) more rapid eGFR declination, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Elevated systolic BP, proteinuria, and anemia are independently associated with CKD progression in pediatric patients with non-GN etiologies.

Prospective cohort analyzing risk factors for chronic kidney disease progression in children

OBJECTIVE

To identify risk factors for chronic kidney disease progression in Brazilian children and to evaluate the interactions between factors.

METHODS

This was a multicenter prospective cohort in São Paulo, involving 209 children with CKD stages 3-4. The study outcome included: (a) death, (b) start of kidney replacement therapy, (c) eGFR decrease >50% during the followup. Thirteen risk factors were tested using univariate regression models, followed by multivariable Cox regression models. The terms of interaction between the variables showing significant association with the outcome were then introduced to the model.

RESULTS

After a median follow-up of 2.5 years (IQR=1.4-3.0), the outcome occurred in 44 cases (21%): 22 started dialysis, 12 had >50% eGFR decrease, seven underwent transplantation, and three died. Advanced CKD stage at onset (HR=2.16, CI=1.14-4.09), nephrotic proteinuria (HR=2.89, CI=1.49-5.62), age (HR=1.10, CI=1.01-1.17), systolic blood pressure Z score (HR=1.36, CI=1.08-1.70), and anemia (HR=2.60, CI=1.41-4.77) were associated with the outcome. An interaction between anemia and nephrotic proteinuria at V1 (HR=0.25, CI=0.06-1.00) was detected.

CONCLUSIONS

As the first CKD cohort in the southern hemisphere, this study supports the main factors reported in developed countries with regards to CKD progression, affirming the potential role of treatments to slow CKD evolution. The detected interaction suggests that anemia may be more deleterious for CKD progression in patients without proteinuria and should be further studied.

Predicting risk of hospitalisation: a retrospective population-based analysis in a paediatric population in Emilia-Romagna, Italy

OBJECTIVES

Develop predictive models for a paediatric population that provide information for paediatricians and health authorities to identify children at risk of hospitalisation for conditions that may be impacted through improved patient care.

DESIGN

Retrospective healthcare utilisation analysis with multivariable logistic regression models.

DATA

Demographic information linked with utilisation of health services in the years 2006-2014 was used to predict risk of hospitalisation or death in 2015 using a longitudinal administrative database of 527 458 children aged 1-13 years residing in the Regione Emilia-Romagna (RER), Italy, in 2014.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Models designed to predict risk of hospitalisation or death in 2015 for problems that are potentially avoidable were developed and evaluated using the C-statistic, for calibration to assess performance across levels of predicted risk, and in terms of their sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive value.

RESULTS

Of the 527 458 children residing in RER in 2014, 6391 children (1.21%) were hospitalised for selected conditions or died in 2015. 49 486 children (9.4%) of the population were classified in the 'At Higher Risk' group using a threshold of predicted risk >2.5%. The observed risk of hospitalisation (5%) for the 'At Higher Risk' group was more than four times higher than the overall population. We observed a C-statistic of 0.78 indicating good model performance. The model was well calibrated across categories of predicted risk.

CONCLUSIONS

It is feasible to develop a population-based model using a longitudinal administrative database that identifies the risk of hospitalisation for a paediatric population. The results of this model, along with profiles of children identified as high risk, are being provided to the paediatricians and other healthcare professionals providing care to this population to aid in planning for care management and interventions that may reduce their patients' likelihood of a preventable, high-cost hospitalisation.

Contribution of symmetric dimethylarginine to GFR decline in pediatric chronic kidney disease

BACKGROUND

In pediatric chronic kidney disease (pCKD), traditional factors (proteinuria, etiology, and race) do not fully explain disease progression. The levels of methylated arginine derivatives (MADs: asymmetric and symmetric dimethylarginine, respectively) rise in CKD and increase with CKD progression. The impact of MADs on glomerular filtration rate (GFR) decline has not been examined in pCKD. The aim of this study was to examine the additive impact of baseline (BL) levels of MADs on directly measured GFR (mGFR) decline per year (ml/min/1.73 m²/year) for a period of up to 4 years.

METHODS

Plasma and data, including mGFR by plasma iohexol clearance, were provided by the prospective, observational Chronic Kidney Disease in Children study. BL MADs were analyzed by high-performance liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry.

RESULTS

For 352 pCKD subjects, the median [interquartile range] BL mGFR was 45 [35, 57] ml/min/1.73 m². The levels of BL MADs were inversely related to the initial mGFR and its decline over time (p < 0.0005) but not to the rate of decline. Covariates, non-glomerulopathy and Tanner stage of ≥ 3 demonstrated weaker relationships between BL levels and beginning mGFR (p = 0.004 and p = 0.002, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

In pCKD, higher concentrations of BL MADs were inversely related to BL mGFR. MADs did not affect the CKD progression rate. Quantification of this relationship is novel to the pCKD literature.

Progression of chronic kidney disease in children - role of glomerular hemodynamics and interstitial fibrosis

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

The aim of this review is to provide an overview of the current advances in the understanding of the mechanisms involved in the progression of chronic kidney disease (CKD) with emphasis on the role of glomerular hemodynamics and tubulointerstitial fibrosis.

RECENT FINDINGS

Despite the varied causes of CKD, the progressive destruction of renal tissue processes through a complex common pathway. Current studies have highlighted both the role of the abnormal intrarenal hemodynamics and of the activation of fibrogenic biochemical pathway in the replacement of normal renal structure by extracellular matrix and ultimately by fibrosis. Molecular markers with the potential to contribute to the detection of tubular cell damage and tubulointerstitial fibrosis in the kidney has been identified.

SUMMARY

There is a clear need to understand and elucidate the mechanisms of progression of CKD to develop efficient therapeutic strategies to halt decline of renal function in children.

Impact of Adjuvant Urinary Diversion versus Valve Ablation Alone on Progression from Chronic to End Stage Renal Disease in Posterior Urethral Valves: A Single Institution 15-Year Time-to-Event Analysis

PURPOSE

Long-term progression to end stage renal disease of valve ablation alone vs ablation followed by additional urinary diversion were compared among children with stage 3 chronic kidney disease due to posterior urethral valves.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We performed a retrospective study of children with posterior urethral valves and stage 3 chronic kidney disease treated at a single institution between 1986 and 2011. The 3 treatment groups were classified as group 1-valve ablation alone, group 2-ablation plus subsequent vesicostomy and group 3-ablation followed by ureterostomies and/or pyelostomies. Baseline demographic characteristics were analyzed. Statistical analyses compared the incidence of time to end stage renal disease among the intervention groups using the Fisher-Freeman-Halton exact test and Kaplan-Meier analysis with the log rank test. Cox regression was used to determine predictors of end stage renal disease progression.

RESULTS

A total of 40 eligible patients were included in the study (group 1-14 patients, group 2-13 patients, group 3-13 patients). Baseline characteristics and post-intervention estimated glomerular filtration rate revealed no significant between-group differences. A statistically significant difference in progression to end stage renal disease was noted within 1 year after diagnosis of stage 3 chronic kidney disease among the treatment groups (log rank test p=0.02). However, cumulative end stage renal disease incidence at 15-year followup showed no statistical difference (log rank test p=0.628). Cox regression analysis determined that bilateral renal dysplasia (HR 2.76, 95% CI 1.21-6.30) and estimated glomerular filtration rate 60 ml/minute/1.73 m² or greater after intervention (HR 0.23, 95% CI 0.09-0.61) were predictive of the likelihood of progression to end stage renal disease.

CONCLUSIONS

Urinary diversion following valve ablation in children with stage 3 chronic kidney disease associated with posterior urethral valves may temporarily delay progression to end stage renal disease. However, no long-term benefit was noted from diversion in the ultimate incidence of end stage renal disease, suggesting that these interventions should be seen as a temporizing measure. Bilateral renal dysplasia and post-intervention estimated glomerular filtration rate are independent variables predicting overall chronic kidney disease progression.

Development and validation of a risk prediction model for end-stage renal disease in patients with type 2 diabetes

The aim of this study is to develop a prediction model for ESRD in patients with type 2 diabetes. A retrospective cohort study was conducted, consisting of 24,104 Chinese patients with type 2 diabetes. We adopted the procedures proposed by the Framingham Heart Study to develop a prediction model for ESRD. Participants were randomly assigned to the derivation and validation sets at a 2:1 ratio. The Cox proportional hazard regression model was used for model development. A total of 813 and 402 subjects (5.06% and 5.00%, respectively) developed ESRD in the derivation and validation sets over a mean follow-up period of 8.3 years. The risk-scoring systems included age, gender, age of diabetes onset, combined statuses of blood pressure and anti-hypertensive medication use, creatinine, variation in HbA1c, variation in systolic blood pressure, diabetes retinopathy, albuminuria, anti-diabetes medications, and combined statuses of hyperlipidemia and anti-hyperlipidemia medication use. The area under curves of 3-year, 5-year, and 8-year ESRD risks were 0.90, 0.86, and 0.81 in the derivation set, respectively. This risk score model can be used as screening for early prevention. The risk prediction for 3-year, 5-year, and 8-year period demonstrated good predictive accuracy and discriminatory ability.

Development and Validation of the Modified Charlson Comorbidity Index in Incident Peritoneal Dialysis Patients: A National Population-Based Approach

Background

The utility of applying the Charlson comorbidity index (CCI) to peritoneal dialysis (PD) patients is disputed because the relative weight of each comorbidity in PD patients may be different from those in other chronic diseases. We aimed to develop and validate a modified CCI in incident PD patients (mCCI-IPD) for better risk stratification and prediction of mortality.

Methods

The mCCI-IPD was developed using data from all Korean adult incident PD patients between 2005 and 2008 ( n = 7,606). Multivariate Cox regression was used to determine new weights for the individual comorbidities in the CCI. The prognostic performance of the mCCI-IPD was validated in an independent cohort ( n = 664) through c-statistics and continuous net reclassification improvement (cNRI).

Results

A total of 75.5% of the patients in the development cohort had 1 or more comorbidities. The Cox proportional hazards model provided reassigned severity weights for the 11 comorbidities that significantly predicted mortality. In the validation cohort, the CCI and mCCI-IPD scores were both correlated with survival and showed no differences in their c-statistics. However, multivariate analyses using cNRI revealed that the mCCI-IPD provided a 38.2% improvement in mortality risk assessment compared with the CCI (95% confidence interval [CI], 15.3 – 61.0; p < 0.001). These significant reclassification improvements were observed consistently in subjects with events (cNRIEvent, 28.2% [95% CI, 6.9 – 49.5; p = 0.009]) and without events (cNRINon-event, 10.0% [95% CI, 1.7 – 18.2; p = 0.019]).

Conclusions

Compared with the CCI, the mCCI-IPD showed better performance in mortality prediction for incident PD patients. Therefore, this tool may be used as a preferred index for statistical analysis and clinical decision-making.

Renal Interstitial Fibrosis: An Imperfect Predictor of Kidney Disease Progression in Some Patient Cohorts

BACKGROUND

The extent of interstitial fibrosis on kidney biopsy is regarded as a prognostic indicator and guide to treatment. Patients with extensive fibrosis are assigned to supportive treatments with the expectation that they have advanced beyond the point at which immunosuppressive or other disease-modifying therapies would be of benefit. Our study highlights some of the limitations of using interstitial fibrosis to predict who will develop end-stage renal disease (ESRD).

METHODS

Analysis of 434 consecutive renal biopsies performed between 2001 and 2012 at a single center. We assessed the influence of various clinical factors along with fibrosis as predictors of ESRD and dialysis-free survival in various patient groups.

RESULTS

Interstitial fibrosis performed well overall as a predictor of progression to dialysis. On average, patients with >50% fibrosis progressed more rapidly than those with either 25-49 or 0-24% fibrosis with a median time to dialysis of 1.2, 6.5 and >10 years, respectively. In contrast, interstitial fibrosis was of less value as a predictor of disease progression in a subset of cases that included patients over the age of 70 and those with diabetic nephropathy on biopsy. Surprisingly, 13.9% of patients with normal renal function had 25-49% fibrosis and 5% had more than 50% fibrosis on biopsy, and 5 years after undergoing biopsy 21% of patients with >50% fibrosis still remained dialysis free.

CONCLUSION

Renal fibrosis is an imperfect prognostic indicator for the development of ESRD and caution should be exercised in applying it too rigidly, especially in elderly or diabetic patients.

Type of Referral, Dialysis Start and Choice of Renal Replacement Therapy Modality in an International Integrated Care Setting

INTRODUCTION

Integrated Care Settings (ICS) provide a holistic approach to the transition from chronic kidney disease into renal replacement therapy (RRT), offering at least both types of dialysis.

OBJECTIVES

To analyze which factors determine type of referral, modality provision and dialysis start on final RRT in ICS clinics.

METHODS

Retrospective analysis of 626 patients starting dialysis in 25 ICS clinics in Poland, Hungary and Romania during 2012. Scheduled initiation of dialysis with a permanent access was considered as planned RRT start.

RESULTS

Modality information (80% of patients) and renal education (87%) were more frequent (p<0.001) in Planned (P) than in Non-Planned (NP) start. Median time from information to dialysis start was 2 months. 89% of patients started on hemodialysis, 49% were referred late to ICS (<3 months from referral to RRT) and 58% were NP start. Late referral, non-vascular renal etiology, worse clinical status, shorter time from information to RRT and less peritoneal dialysis (PD) were associated with NP start (p<0.05). In multivariate logistic regression analysis, P start (p≤0.05) was associated with early referral, eGFR >8.2 ml/min, >2 months between information and RRT initiation and with vascular etiology after adjustment for age and gender. "Optimal care," defined as ICS follow-up >12 months plus modality information and P start, occurred in 23%.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite the high rate of late referrals, information and education were widely provided. However, NP start was high and related to late referral and may explain the low frequency of PD.

Evaluation and management of hydronephrosis in the neonate

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

The prenatal detection of congenital anomalies of the kidney and urinary tract (CAKUT) has permitted the early management of these conditions. The aim of this review is to provide an overview of the management of neonates with antenatal hydronephrosis (ANH).

RECENT FINDINGS

In spite of the continuous advances in the understanding of the genetic basis, clinical course, and outcomes of CAKUT, there are still many controversies regarding the clinical significance, postnatal evaluation, and management of neonates with ANH. Mild ANH will often resolve spontaneously, whereas moderate to severe ANH is frequently associated with CAKUT.

SUMMARY

ANH is a surrogate marker of potential congenital renal anomalies, but usually cannot identify a specific disease. A multidisciplinary team approach is required to diagnose and treat these complex disorders. Currently nonsurgical management of CAKUT should be considered whenever possible for infants with ANH.

A predictive model of progressive chronic kidney disease in idiopathic nephrotic syndrome

BACKGROUND

There are limited data on the risk factors for chronic kidney disease (CKD) in children with idiopathic nephrotic syndrome (INS). This retrospective cohort study aimed to develop a predictive model for CKD progression in children with INS.

METHODS

Between 1970 and 2012, a total of 294 patients with INS were followed up. The primary outcome was progression to CKD stage 3 or higher. A predictive model was developed using a Cox proportional hazards model. A score was calculated using b-coefficients and summing up points assigned to each significant variable. Prognostic score was grouped into categories: low risk, medium risk, and high risk.

RESULTS

Median follow-up was 6.9 years. Median renal survival was 26.1 years and probability of CKD stage 3 or higher was 8% in 10 years. Multivariate analysis showed that the most accurate model included initial age, hematuria, and steroid resistance. Accuracy was high with a c-statistic of 0.95 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.91-0.99), 0.92 (95% CI 0.88-0.96), and 0.92 (95% CI 0.87-0.97) at 2, 5, and 10 years of follow-up respectively. By survival analysis, 10-year renal survival was 100% for the low-risk and 95% for the medium-risk group, while 40% of high-risk patients would exhibit CKD stage 3 or higher (P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Our predictive model of CKD may contribute to the early identification of a subgroup of INS patients at a high risk of renal dysfunction.

Predictors of Rapid Progression of Glomerular and Nonglomerular Kidney Disease in Children and Adolescents: The Chronic Kidney Disease in Children (CKiD) Cohort

BACKGROUND

Few studies have prospectively evaluated the progression of chronic kidney disease (CKD) in children and adolescents, as well as factors associated with progression.

STUDY DESIGN

Prospective multicenter observational cohort study.

SETTING & PARTICIPANTS

496 children and adolescents with CKD enrolled in the Chronic Kidney Disease in Children (CKiD) Study.

PREDICTORS

Proteinuria, hypoalbuminemia, blood pressure, dyslipidemia, and anemia.

OUTCOMES

Parametric failure-time models were used to characterize adjusted associations between baseline levels and changes in predictors and time to a composite event of renal replacement therapy or 50% decline in glomerular filtration rate (GFR).

RESULTS

398 patients had nonglomerular disease and 98 had glomerular disease; of these, 29% and 41%, respectively, progressed to the composite event after median follow-ups of 5.2 and 3.7 years, respectively. Demographic and clinical characteristics and outcomes differed substantially according to the underlying diagnosis; hence, risk factors for progression were assessed in stratified analyses, and formal interactions by diagnosis were performed. Among patients with nonglomerular disease and after adjusting for baseline GFR, times to the composite event were significantly shorter with urinary protein-creatinine ratio > 2mg/mg, hypoalbuminemia, elevated blood pressure, dyslipidemia, male sex, and anemia, by 79%, 69%, 38%, 40%, 38%, and 45%, respectively. Among patients with glomerular disease, urinary protein-creatinine ratio >2mg/mg, hypoalbuminemia, and elevated blood pressure were associated with significantly reduced times to the composite event by 94%, 71%, and 67%, respectively. Variables expressing change in patient clinical status over the initial year of the study contributed significantly to the model, which was cross-validated internally.

LIMITATIONS

Small number of events in glomerular patients and use of internal cross-validation.

CONCLUSIONS

Characterization and modeling of risk factors for CKD progression can be used to predict the extent to which these factors, either alone or in combination, would shorten the time to renal replacement therapy or 50% decline in GFR in children with CKD.

Anthropometric and biochemical profile of children and adolescents with chronic kidney disease in a predialysis pediatric interdisciplinary program

This is longitudinal retrospective observational cohort study that evaluated anthropometric and biochemical variables of children and adolescents admitted to a Predialysis Interdisciplinary Management Program (PDIMP) responsible for the follow-up of children and adolescents at stages 2 to 4 of chronic kidney disease (CKD) at a tertiary center. One hundred thirty-eight patients with CKD on predialysis treatment with median age at admission of 9 years and the median follow-up time of 5 years were evaluated. Seventy-four (53%) had CKD stage 3 at admission and 70 (51%) reached CKD stage 5 at the end of the follow-up. There was no significant difference between the mean initial and final hemoglobin and serum albumin. However, the final serum bicarbonate presented a significant improvement. Analyses stratified according to clinical variables of interest showed a significant improvement in body mass index (BMI) Z score, especially in the subgroup of children admitted under two years of age. In relation to stature-for-age Z score, data show a significant improvement in stature SD at the end of the study. In conclusion, the present study showed improvement of nutritional status of CKD patients and that the deterioration of renal function was not correlated with BMI-for-age Z score.