The effect of the gastrectomy on survival in patients with metastatic gastric cancer: a study of ASMO

A prognostic nomogram to predict the cancer-specific survival of patients with initially diagnosed metastatic gastric cancer: a validation study in a Chinese cohort

BACKGROUND

Few studies have been designed to predict the survival of Chinese patients initially diagnosed with metastatic gastric cancer (mGC). Therefore, the objective of this study was to construct and validate a new nomogram model to predict cancer-specific survival (CSS) in Chinese patients.

METHODS

We collected 328 patients with mGC from Northern Jiangsu People's Hospital as the training cohort and 60 patients from Xinyuan County People's Hospital as the external validation cohort. Multivariate Cox regression was used to identify risk factors, and a nomogram was created to predict CSS. The predictive performance of the nomogram was evaluated using the consistency index (C-index), the calibration curve, and the decision curve analysis (DCA) in the training cohort and the validation cohort.

RESULTS

Multivariate Cox regression identified differentiation grade (P < 0.001), T-stage (P < 0.05), N-stage (P < 0.001), surgery (P < 0.05), and chemotherapy (P < 0.001) as independent predictors of CSS. Nomogram of chemotherapy regimens and cycles was also designed by us for the prediction of mGC. Thus, these factors are integrated into the nomogram model: the C-index value was 0.72 (95% CI 0.70-0.85) for the nomogram model and 0.82 (95% CI 0.79-0.89) and 0.73 (95% CI 0.70-0.86) for the internal and external validation cohorts, respectively. Calibration curves and DCA also demonstrated adequate fit and ideal net benefit in prediction and clinical applications.

CONCLUSIONS

We established a practical nomogram to predict CSS in Chinese patients initially diagnosed with mGC. Nomograms can be used to individualize survival predictions and guide clinicians in making therapeutic decisions.

Gastrectomy for stage IV gastric cancer: a comparison of different treatment strategies from the SEER database

In the West, more than one third of newly diagnosed subjects show metastatic disease in gastric cancer (mGC) with few care options available. Gastrectomy has recently become a subject of debate, with some evidence showing advantages in survival beyond the sole purpose of treatment tumor-related complications. We investigated the survival benefit of different strategies in mGC patients, focusing on the role and timing of gastrectomy. Data were extracted from the SEER database. Groups were determined according to whether patients received gastrectomy, chemotherapy, supportive care. Patients receiving a multimodality treatment were further divided according to timing of surgery, whether performed before (primary gastrectomy, PG) or after chemotherapy (secondary gastrectomy, SG). 16,596 patients were included. Median OS was significantly higher (p < 0.001) in the SG (15 months) than in the PG (13 months), gastrectomy alone (6 months), and chemotherapy (7 months) groups. In the multivariate analysis, SG showed better OS (HR = 0.22, 95%CI = 0.18-0.26, p < 0.001) than PG (HR = 0.25, 95%CI = 0.23-0.28, p < 0.001), gastrectomy (HR = 0.40, 95%CI = 0.36-0.44, p < 0.001), and chemotherapy (HR = 0.42, 95%CI = 0.4-0.44, p < 0.001). The survival benefits persisted even after the PSM analysis. This study shows survival advantages of gastrectomy as multimodality strategy after chemotherapy. In selected patients, SG can be proposed to improve the management of stage IV disease.

The incidence, risk factors and predictive nomograms for early death among patients with stage IV gastric cancer: a population-based study

Background

Although advances in the treatment of stage IV gastric cancer (GC) patients, some patients were observed to die within 3 months of initial diagnosis. The present study aimed to explore the early mortality and risk factors for stage IV GC and further develop nomograms.

Methods

A total of 2,174 eligible stage IV GC patients were selected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. Logistic regression analyses were used to determine the risk factors and develop the nomograms to predict all-cause early death and cancer-specific early death. The predictive performance of the nomograms was assessed by receiver operating characteristic curves (ROC), calibration plots and decision curve analyses (DCA) in both training and validation cohorts.

Results

Of 2,174 patients enrolled, 708 died within 3 months of initial diagnosis (n=668 for cancer-specific early death). Early mortality remained stable from 2010-2015. Non-Asian or Pacific Islander (API) race, poorer differentiation, middle sites of the stomach, no surgery, no radiotherapy, no chemotherapy, lung metastases and liver metastases were associated with high risk of both all-causes early death and cancer-specific early death. The nomograms constructed based on these factors showed favorable sensitivity, with the area under the ROC range of 0.816-0.847. The calibration curves and DCAs also exhibited adequate fit and ideal net benefit in prediction and clinical application.

Conclusions

Approximately one-third of stage IV GC patients experienced early death. These associated risk factors and predictive nomograms may help clinicians identify the patients at high risk of early death and be the reference for treatment choices.

Survival benefits of palliative gastrectomy in stage IV gastric cancer: a propensity score matched analysis

Background

This study aimed to investigate the effect of palliative gastrectomy on survival in stage IV gastric cancer.

Methods

Patients diagnosed with stage IV gastric cancer between 2010 and 2016 were selected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Survival curves were estimated by the Kaplan-Meier method before and after propensity score matching (PSM). Univariate and multivariate Cox analyses were performed to evaluate risk factors for survival in patients who underwent palliative gastrectomy.

Results

We examined 6,529 patients with stage IV gastric cancer, of which 625 underwent palliative gastrectomy. Using a 1:2 PSM, the 625 patients were matched with 1,250 patients from the no gastrectomy group. The overall survival was higher in the gastrectomy group before [hazard ratio (HR) =0.57, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.53-0.62, P<0.0001] and after PSM (HR =0.51, 95% CI: 0.46-0.57, P<0.0001). Multivariate Cox analysis confirmed the survival benefits of palliative gastrectomy and chemotherapy. Older age, over-lapping lesions, non-adenocarcinomas, higher tumor grade, and lung metastasis significantly increased the risk of mortality. In the gastrectomy group, patients aged ≥80 years, diagnosed with grades 3/4 non-adenocarcinomas, or with lung metastasis showed poorer prognosis. However, chemotherapy could improve the survival of these patients.

Conclusions

Palliative gastrectomy provides survival benefits to stage IV gastric cancer patients. However, age, tumor grade, tumor histology, and lung metastasis status should be considered while making a decision regarding gastrectomy. Chemotherapy should also be recommended for these patients.

Nomograms for predicting survival in patients with metastatic gastric adenocarcinoma who undergo palliative gastrectomy

BACKGROUND

Recently, evidence has emerged that palliative gastrectomy in patients with stage IV gastric cancer may offer some survival benefits. However, the decision whether to perform primary tumor surgery remains challenging for surgeons, and investigations into models that are predictive of prognosis are scarce. Current study aimed to develop and validate prognostic nomograms for patients with metastatic gastric adenocarcinoma treated with palliative gastrectomy.

METHODS

The development dataset comprised 1186 patients from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program who were diagnosed with metastatic gastric adenocarcinoma in 2004-2011, while the validation dataset included 407 patients diagnosed in 2012-2015. Variables were incorporated into a Cox proportional hazards model to identify independent risk factors for survival. Both pre- and postoperative nomograms for predicting 1- or 2-year survival probabilities were constructed using the development dataset. The concordance index (c-index) and calibration curves were plotted to determine the accuracy of the nomogram models. Finally, the cut-off value of the calculated total scores based on preoperative nomograms was set and validated by comparing survival with contemporary cases without primary tumor surgery.

RESULTS

Age, tumor size, location, grade, T stage, N stage, metastatic site, scope of gastrectomy, number of examined lymph node(s), chemotherapy and radiotherapy were risk factors of survival and were included as variables in the postoperative nomogram; the c-indices of the development and validation datasets were 0.701 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.693-0.710) and 0.699 (95% CI: 0.682-0.716), respectively. The preoperative nomogram incorporated age, tumor size, location, grade, depth of invasion, regional lymph node(s) status, and metastatic site. The c-indices for the internal (bootstrap) and external validation sets were 0.629 (95% CI: 0.620-0.639) and 0.607 (95% CI: 0.588-0.626), respectively. Based on the preoperative nomogram, patients with preoperative total score > 28 showed no survival benefit with gastrectomy compared to no primary tumor surgery.

CONCLUSIONS

Our survival nomograms for patients with metastatic gastric adenocarcinoma undergoing palliative gastrectomy can assist surgeons in treatment decision-making and prognostication.

Palliative Gastrectomy and Survival in Patients With Metastatic Gastric Cancer: A Propensity Score-Matched Analysis of a Large Population-Based Study

OBJECTIVES

The role of palliative gastrectomy in the management of metastatic gastric cancer remains inadequately clarified.

METHODS

We analyzed patients with metastatic gastric cancer enrolled in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results registry from January 2004 to December 2012. Propensity score (PS) analysis with 1:1 matching and the nearest neighbor matching method was performed to ensure well-balanced characteristics of the groups of patients who undergone gastrectomy and those without gastrectomy. Data were analyzed by Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazards regression models to evaluate the overall survival and cancer-specific survival rates with corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs).

RESULTS

In general, receiving any kind of gastrectomy was associated with an improvement in survival in the multivariate analyses (hazard ratio [HR]os = 0.64, 95% CI = 0.59-0.70, HRcss = 0.63, 95% CI = 0.57-0.68) and PS matching (PSM) analyses (HRos = 0.63, 95% CI = 0.56-0.70, HRcss = 0.62, 95% CI = 0.55-0.70). After PSM, palliative gastrectomy was found to be associated with remarkably improved survival for patients with stage M1 with only 1 metastasis but not associated with survival of patients with stage M1 with extensive metastasis (≥2 metastatic sites).

DISCUSSION

The results obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database suggest that patients with metastatic gastric cancer might benefit from palliative gastrectomy on the basis of chemotherapy. However, a PSM cohort study of this kind still has a strong selection bias and cannot replace a properly conducted randomized controlled trial.