A methodological framework to characterize the wildlife-livestock interface: The case of wild boar in mainland Spain

BACKGROUND

The representation of wildlife-livestock interface (WLI) at an accurate spatial resolution poses several challenges. Furthermore, there is a lack of published material providing detailed descriptions of geospatial techniques for the purpose of producing visual results that are interpretable and contrastable for epidemiological analysis.

OBJECTIVES

Our aim is to develop a standardized, applicable, and scalable methodological framework for describing and characterizing the WLI across a large spatial extent. Subsequently, we aim to employ this framework to depict specific WLI based on different epidemiological scenarios determined by the abundance of wild boar (Sus scrofa) and domestic ungulates as an illustrative case, specifically focusing on mainland Spain.

METHODS

To establish a methodological framework, we merged data from both wild and domestic sources into a hexagonal grid. We utilized data on wild boar hunting and the locations of pig, cattle, sheep, and goat farms in mainland Spain. New variables were derived from this combined dataset to illustrate the overlapping abundance between wild boar and domestic species. Finally, a cluster analysis of the generated variables was carried out, with the aim of distinguishing and characterizing various scenarios of the wild boar-domestic ungulate interface in mainland Spain.

RESULTS

The hexagonal grid proved appropriate to represent and evaluate the WLI at fine spatial resolution over such broad extent. Despite the inability to ascribe a dominant livestock type and production system to a specific region, we were able to identify fifteen main areas of interest in terms of overlap. As for extensive livestock, normally at the highest risk of interaction with wild boar, the primary regions in Spain were those with dehesa agroecosystem and the Atlantic areas. Certain scenarios were particularly relevant in terms of risk for interaction and subsequent transmission of disease, namely, the case of extensive pig production in south western Spain (dehesa agroecosystem), which is especially concerned about the potential introduction of African Swine fever (ASF) in the Country. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS: We provide a basis for visualizing and understanding of different WLI scenarios, which is extensible to other regions and interfaces, and automatable where precise source of data from wildlife and livestock are available. This spatial statistics framework enables the utilization of high-resolution data, ensuring consistency on uniform grids. This aligns with the needs of high-resolution disease dissemination models based on wildlife behaviour. Such aspects are crucial for developing risk assessment and improving strategies for the prevention, control, and eradication of shared priority emerging diseases at national and international levels, such as ASF.

What drives wild boar density and population growth in Mediterranean environments?

Accurate prediction of fluctuations of wildlife local number of individuals is crucial for effective population management to minimise human-wildlife conflicts. Climate, habitat, food availability, and density dependence are among the main factors influencing mammalian population dynamics. In southern Europe, precipitation and temperature, particularly during summer have been suggested as key factors affecting wild boar (Sus scrofa L.). However, there is uncertainty regarding the role of these factors and the mechanisms driving population fluctuations. This study utilized long-term data of wild boar populations from 14 study sites collected for 23 years in Catalonia, Spain, to analyse the factors that drive population density and growth rate. Generalized Additive Mixed Models (GAMM) explained respectively, 94 % and 65 % of the density and growth rate variability. Spring precipitation in both current and previous year, female weight, and forest cover (particularly above 60 %) were directly associated with higher wild boar densities and population growth rates. The interaction between crop cover and total annual precipitation also played a significant role in determining population density. Higher densities were linked to lower population growth in the following year, likely due to a density-dependent process. These results suggest that the expected decrease in rainfall linked with global warming may limit the availability of natural resources and potentially slow wild boar population growth. Nevertheless, wild boar can exploit alternative anthropogenic food sources, potentially leading to an increase of human-wildlife conflicts. Therefore, incorporating management policies aimed at restricting wild boar access to human food sources is key for controlling their reproductive output. Additionally, landscape management strategies targeted at diminishing refuge and resource availability in regions experiencing high wild boar impact are essential for contributing to sustainable coexistence between wild boars and human populations.

Long-term monitoring of mammal communities in the Peneda-Gerês National Park using camera-trap data

Background

In the past decades, agricultural land abandonment and declining land-use intensity became common, especially in the Mediterranean countries of southern Europe. In some areas, this development opened up possibilities for rewilding and the recolonisation or expansion of large mammal populations. Yet, in some instances, co-occurrence of wild mammals and free-ranging domestic herbivores might lead to potential conflicts. It is, therefore, necessary to study the ecological interactions between wild and domestic mammal species to understand the effects of land abandonment and rewilding on biodiversity and ecosystem services. Camera traps are an effective tool for studying species interactions and occupancy dynamics as they allow for long-term monitoring with minimal interference. We conducted a long-term monitoring programme with camera traps in the Peneda-Gerês National Park in northern Portugal. The area has undergone substantial land-use changes following the abandonment of agricultural areas in the past 60 years. While agro-pastoral activities, especially the breeding of free-ranging horses and cattle, are still common in the area, the intensity of these activities has decreased significantly, promoting natural succession and an increase or return of several large mammal species in recent years. Overall, our project aims at: (1) assessing the population trends of the medium and large sized mammals in the area over time; (2) analysing the effects of passive rewilding on occurrence, abundance and behaviour; and (3) understanding potential interactions or conflicts between wild and domestic herbivores. In this publication, we present results of a primary occupancy analysis between 2015 and 2020, as well as a comparison between occupancy and density estimates for 2019.

New information

Our publication provides a dataset from long-term camera-trap monitoring in the Peneda-Gerês National Park between 2015 and 2021. We established a 16 km² grid of 64 cameras deployed yearly during the summer months. Together with this publication, we publish the data and images collected between 2015 and 2021, using both the Camtrap DP standard and the GBIF Darwin Event Core. We obtained a total of 934,810 pictures on 41,234 trap nights. The pictures were automatically grouped into sequences with each sequence representing a distinct occurrence event, resulting in 80,191 occurrences. Out of those, 14,442 contained observations of a species, while the remaining were either blank or the species was not identifiable. We only obtained the information whether a species was present or absent on a picture, disregarding the number of individuals. Most observations were of domestic cattle (Bostaurus) and horses (Equuscaballus), followed by European roe deer (Capreoluscapreolus) and wild boar (Susscrofa). Further observations include red fox (Vulpesvulpes), gray wolf (Canislupus), Eurasian badger (Melesmeles), stone marten (Martesfoina), common genet (Genettagenetta), Iberian ibex (Caprapyrenaica) and red deer (Cervuselaphus). We estimated occupancy and densities for the most common species. The project is on-going and additional data will be included in the future. The dataset is freely available for ecological analysis, but also for training machine-learning systems in automated image classification as all pictures have been manually classified.

Hepatitis E Virus Infections in Free-Ranging and Captive Cetaceans, Spain, 2011-2022

Epidemiologic surveillance of hepatitis E virus in over 300 free-ranging and captive cetaceans in waters off Spain revealed extensive exposure to this pathogen. We suggest the persistent and widespread presence of hepatitis E in the marine environment off the coast of Spain may be driven by terrestrial sources of contamination.

Dental formula variations in wild and domestic Sus scrofa: is the first premolar agenesis an evolutionary trend?

We investigated the occurrence of congenital dental abnormalities in 94 wild boars Sus scrofa scrofa, and 20 Iberian pigs Sus scrofa domesticus from Doñana (DNP) and Sierra de Andújar Natural Park (ANP) southern Spain. The only dental variation found was agenesis of the lower first premolar, either deciduous (Dp1) or permanent (P1). We analyzed prevalence variations using: odds ratios, Fisher’s exact test and logistic-regression models. The lower first premolar has often been reported to be absent in modern domestic breeds of pigs, but it is usually reported as present in wild boar. However, we found a similar occurrence of agenesis in wild boar as in Iberian pigs. A common genotypic background between wild boar and Iberian pig populations of ANP sharing the same ecosystems may explain this result. When considering only wild boar, unexpected differences between populations were detected. The wild boar from ANP showed higher estimated probabilities of agenesis than those from DNP. Environmental conditions can also represent influencing factors for changes within subspecies. Our findings reinforce the idea that in suids the congenital absence of premolars probably has an evolutionary relevance, which could represent a generalized trend towards the reduction of the dental formula from the plesiomorphic placental dentition.

Retrospective spatial analysis for African swine fever in endemic areas to assess interactions between susceptible host populations

African Swine Fever (ASF) is one of the most complex and significant diseases from a sanitary-economic perspective currently affecting the world's swine-farming industry. ASF has been endemic in Sardinia (Italy) since 1978, and several control and eradication programmes have met with limited success. In this traditional ASF endemic area, there are three susceptible host populations for this virus sharing the same habitat: wild boar, farmed domestic pigs and non-registered free-ranging pigs (known as "brado" animals). The main goal of this study was to determine and predict fine-scale spatial interactions of this multi-host system in relation to the epidemiology of ASF in the main endemic area of Sardinia, Montes-Orgosolo. To this end, simultaneous monitoring of GPS-GSM collared wild boar and free-ranging pigs sightings were performed to predict interaction indexes through latent selection difference functions with environmental, human and farming factors. Regarding epidemiological assessment, the spatial inter-specific interaction indexes obtained here were used to correlate ASF notifications in wild boar and domestic pig farms. Daily movement patterns, home ranges (between 120.7 and 2,622.8 ha) and resource selection of wild boar were obtained for the first time on the island. Overall, our prediction model showed the highest spatial interactions between wild boar and free-ranging pigs in areas close to pig farms. A spatially explicit model was obtained to map inter-specific interaction over the complete ASF-endemic area of the island. Our approach to monitoring interaction indexes may help explain the occurrence of ASF notifications in wild boar and domestic pigs on a fine-spatial scale. These results support the recent and effective eradication measures taken in Sardinia. In addition, this methodology could be extrapolated to apply in the current epidemiological scenarios of ASF in Eurasia, where exist multi-host systems involving free-ranging pigs and wild boar.

Accounting for detection unveils the intricacy of wild boar and rabbit co-occurrence patterns in a Mediterranean landscape

The patterns of species co-occurrence have long served as a primary approach to explore concepts of interspecific interaction. However, the interpretation of such patterns is difficult as they can result from several complex ecological processes, in a scale-dependent manner. Here, we aim to investigate the co-occurrence pattern between European rabbit and wild boar in an estate in Central Portugal, using two-species occupancy modelling. With this framework, we tested species interaction for occupancy and detection, but also the interdependencies between both parameters. According to our results, the wild boar and European rabbit occurred independently in the study area. However, model averaging of the detection parameters revealed a potential positive effect of wild boar’s presence on rabbit’s detection probability. Upon further analysis of the parameter interdependencies, our results suggested that failing to account for a positive effect on rabbit’s detection could lead to potentially biased interpretations of the co-occurrence pattern. Our study, in spite of preliminary, highlights the need to understand these different pathways of species interaction to avoid erroneous inferences.

Microgeographic variation in recruitment under adult trees: arrival of new genotypes or perpetuation of the existing ones?

Investigating spatial variation in the relative importance of sexual reproduction and clonal propagation is critical to obtain more accurate estimates of future effective population sizes and genetic diversity, as well as to identify ecological correlates of clonality. We combined a stratified sampling scheme with microsatellite genetic analyses to estimate variation in the proportion of sexual versus clonal recruits among saplings in five populations of the tree Pyrus bourgaeana. Using a likelihood framework, we identified clones among the genotypes analysed and examined variation among populations regarding the proportion of saplings coming from clonal propagation. We also examined the relationship between the relative abundance of clonal shoots across the studied populations and their herbivory levels. Our results revealed that one third of the saplings examined (N = 225 saplings) had a probability above 0.9 of being clones of nearby (<10 m) trees, with the ratio between clonal propagation and sexual recruitment varying up to eight-fold among populations. A small portion of these putative clonal shoots reached sexual maturity. Relative abundance of clonal shoots did not significantly relate to the herbivory by ungulates. Our results call into question optimistic expectations of previous studies reporting sufficient levels of recruitment under parental trees without animal seed dispersal services. Nevertheless, given that some of these clonal shoots reach sexual maturity, clonal propagation can ultimately facilitate the long-term persistence of populations during adverse periods (e.g. environmental stress, impoverished pollinator communities, seed dispersal limitation).

Spatial Analysis of Wildlife Tuberculosis Based on a Serologic Survey Using Dried Blood Spots, Portugal

We investigated the spatial epidemiology of bovine tuberculosis (TB) in wildlife in a multihost system. We surveyed bovine TB in Portugal by serologic analysis of elutes of dried blood spots obtained from hunted wild boar. We modeled spatial disease risk by using areal generalized linear mixed models with conditional autoregressive priors. Antibodies against Mycobaterium bovis were detected in 2.4% (95% CI 1.5%-3.8%) of 678 wild boar in 2 geographic clusters, and the predicted risk fits well with independent reports of M. bovis culture. Results show that elutes are an almost perfect substitute for serum (Cohen unweighted κ = 0.818), indicating that serologic tests coupled with dried blood spots are an effective strategy for large-scale bovine TB surveys, using wild boar as sentinel species. Results also show that bovine TB is an emerging wildlife disease and stress the need to prevent further geographic spread and prevalence increase.

Wild pig (Sus scrofa L.) occupancy patterns in the Brazilian Atlantic forest

Abstract: Despite the great impacts of invasive wild pig (Sus scrofa) to natural ecosystems, habitat use by this species in the neotropics remains poorly studied. Here, we investigated the effects of local habitat and landscape covariates (vegetation types, running watercourses and roads) on occupancy patterns of wild pig in the Atlantic Forest of southern Brazil. We used single season occupancy modeling to estimate detection (p) and occupancy (ψ) probabilities, using 8-day camera-trap monitoring of 100 sampled sites. The cameras detected wild pig in 64 sites (naïve occupancy = 64 %). The four best models explained 72.7 % of the occupancy patterns, and the top model (with "water" variable) had a weight of 28.5 %. Even though none of the tested variables had high explanatory power of wild pig occupancy, the water variable had a negative effect trend (β = -1.124; SE = 0.734), with 59 % of occupancy when water was present and 82 % when it was absent around the sampling sites. Vestiges of the presence of wild pig in different vegetation types revealed that they used plantations of Pinus sp., native forests, and corn and oat crops. The occupation pattern shows that wild pig are generalist at our study site at the Atlantic Forest being found everywhere, raising ecological and economic concerns about the high potential negative effects of its invasion.

Stochastic assessment of management strategies for a Mediterranean peri-urban wild boar population

Wild boar (Sus scrofa) population spread into urban and periurban areas has exacerbated conflicts with humans. There is a need for planned wild boar management strategies, and Population viability analysis (PVA) combined with perturbation analyses allow the assessment of the management effort of control methods. Our study aims to develop stochastic predictive models of the increasing wild boar population of the 80 km² peri-urban Mediterranean area of Collserola Natural Park (CNP), located near Barcelona, Spain, as well as assessing specific management measures (including reduced food availability, selective harvest, and reduction in fertility). Population parameters were estimated from previously published census and hunting data provided by the CNP and the local hunting administration. The results revealed that under the current conditions the CNP wild boar population will continue to increase. The most efficient strategy to reduce wild boar abundance was a combination of reducing supplementary anthropogenic food resources and selective removal of juvenile (<1 year) and yearling (1–2 years) wild boar. These strategies will probably be also the most efficient ones in other oversupplemented increasing wild boar populations in similar situations, although specific studies will be needed to fine-tune the best management option for each context. PVA allows the prediction of future population trends and the assessment of the efficacy and efficiency of potential management strategies before implementing management measures.

Wild boar mapping using population-density statistics: From polygons to high resolution raster maps

The wild boar is an important crop raider as well as a reservoir and agent of spread of swine diseases. Due to increasing densities and expanding ranges worldwide, the related economic losses in livestock and agricultural sectors are significant and on the rise. Its management and control would strongly benefit from accurate and detailed spatial information on species distribution and abundance, which are often available only for small areas. Data are commonly available at aggregated administrative units with little or no information about the distribution of the species within the unit. In this paper, a four-step geostatistical downscaling approach is presented and used to disaggregate wild boar population density statistics from administrative units of different shape and size (polygons) to 5 km resolution raster maps by incorporating auxiliary fine scale environmental variables. 1) First a stratification method was used to define homogeneous bioclimatic regions for the analysis; 2) Under a geostatistical framework, the wild boar densities at administrative units, i.e. subnational areas, were decomposed into trend and residual components for each bioclimatic region. Quantitative relationships between wild boar data and environmental variables were estimated through multiple regression and used to derive trend components at 5 km spatial resolution. Next, the residual components (i.e., the differences between the trend components and the original wild boar data at administrative units) were downscaled at 5 km resolution using area-to-point kriging. The trend and residual components obtained at 5 km resolution were finally added to generate fine scale wild boar estimates for each bioclimatic region. 3) These maps were then mosaicked to produce a final output map of predicted wild boar densities across most of Eurasia. 4) Model accuracy was assessed at each different step using input as well as independent data. We discuss advantages and limits of the method and its potential application in animal health.

Monitoring of Schmallenberg virus in Spanish wild artiodactyls, 2006-2015

Schmallenberg disease is an emerging disease that affects domestic and wild ruminants in Europe. An epidemiological survey was carried out to assess exposure to Schmallenberg virus (SBV) in wild artiodactyls in Spain between 2006 and 2015. A total of 1751 sera from wild artiodactyls, including 1066 red deer, 304 fallow deer, 192 mouflon, 109 wild boar, 49 roe deer and 31 Spanish ibex were tested for antibodies against SBV by ELISA and confirmed by virus neutralization test. SBV was not detected between the 2006/2007 and the 2010/2011 hunting seasons. Overall seroprevalence (including samples collected between the 2011/2012 and 2014/2015 hunting seasons) was 14.6% (160/1099; 95%CI: 12.7–16.6). Mean SBV seroprevalence was 13.3±2.6% in red deer, 23.9±4.2% in fallow deer, 16.4±6.1% in mouflon and 2.8±3.1% in wild boar. No antibodies against SBV were found in roe deer or Spanish ibex. The presence of SBV RNA was confirmed in three of 255 (1.2%) spleen samples from wild ruminants analysed by rRT-PCR. In a multivariate mixed-effects logistic regression model, the main risk factors associated with SBV seroprevalence were: species (fallow deer, red deer and mouflon), age (adults) and interactions between hunting areas of more than 1000 hectares and hunting season (2012/2013, 2013/2014 and 2014/2015). The hypothesis of endemic circulation of SBV in the last few years is supported by the detection of SBV RNA in animals sampled in 2011 and 2015, as well as antibodies detected at low level in juveniles in 2012, 2013 and 2014. The results indicate that SBV circulated in wild ruminant populations in Spain during the same period when the virus was first reported in northern Europe, and at least five months before the first case was officially reported in livestock in Spain.

A Cartographic Tool for Managing African Swine Fever in Eurasia: Mapping Wild Boar Distribution Based on the Quality of Available Habitats

The current African swine fever (ASF) epidemic in Eurasia represents a risk for the swine industry with devastating socio-economic and political consequences. Wild boar appears to be a key factor in maintaining the disease in endemic areas (mainly the Russian Federation) and spreading the disease across borders, including within the European Union. To help predict and interpret the dynamics of ASF infection, we developed a standardized distribution map based on global land cover vegetation (GLOBCOVER) that quantifies the quality of available habitats (QAH) for wild boar across Eurasia as an indirect index for quantifying numbers of wild boar. QAHs were estimated using a seven-level scale based on expert opinion and found to correlate closely with georeferenced presence of wild boar (n = 22 362): the highest wild boar densities (74.47%) were found in areas at the two highest QAH levels, while the lowest densities (5.66%) were found in areas at the lowest QAH levels. Mapping notifications from 2007 to 2016 onto the QAH map showed that in endemic areas, 60% of ASF notifications occurred in domestic pigs, mostly in agricultural landscapes (QAHs 1.75 and 1) containing low-biosecurity domestic pig farms. In the EU, in contrast, 95% of ASF notifications occurred in wild boar, within natural landscapes (QAH 2). These results suggest that the QAH map can be a useful epi-tool for defining risk scenarios and identifying potential travel corridors for ASF. This tool will help inform resource allocation decisions and improve prevention, control and surveillance of ASF and potentially of other diseases affecting swine and wild boar in Eurasia.

Update on the Risk of Introduction of African Swine Fever by Wild Boar into Disease-Free European Union Countries

Despite efforts to prevent the appearance and spread of African swine fever (ASF) in the European Union, several Member States are now affected (Lithuania, Poland, Latvia and Estonia). Disease appearance in 2014 was associated with multiple entrances linked to wild boar movement from endemic areas (EFSA Journal, 8, 2015, 1556), but the risk of new introductions remains high (Gallardo et al., Porcine Health Management, 1, and 21) as ASF continues to be active in endemic countries (Russian Federation, Belarus and Ukraine). Since 2014, the number of ASF notifications has increased substantially, particularly in wild boar (WB), in parallel with slow but constant geographical advance of the disease. This situation suggests a real risk of further disease spread into other Member States, posing a great threat to pig production in the EU. Following the principles of the risk-based veterinary surveillance, this article applies a methodology developed by De la Torre et al. (Transboundary and Emerging Diseases, 62, and 272) to assess the relative risk of new introductions of ASF by natural movements of WB according to the current epidemiological situation. This update incorporates the most recent available data and an improved version of the most important risk estimator: an optimized cartographic tool of WB distribution to analyse wild boar suitable habitat. The highest relative risk values were estimated for Slovakia (5) and Romania (5), followed by Finland (4), Czech Republic (3) and Germany (3). Relative risk for Romania and Finland is associated mainly with disease entrance from endemic areas such as the Russian Federation and Ukraine, where the disease is currently spreading; relative risk for Germany and Czech Republic is associated mainly with the potential progress of the disease through the EU, and relative risk for Slovakia is associated with both pathways. WB habitat is the most important risk estimator, whereas WB density is the least significant, suggesting that WB presence is more relevant than density. These results can provide actionable advice for dealing with risk. They can be directly used to inform risk-based national strategies and identify countries that may need to pay greater attention to surveillance or conduct additional evaluations at the subnational level.

The control of classical swine fever in wild boar

Classical swine fever (CSF) is a viral disease with severe economic consequences for domestic pigs. Natural hosts for the CSF virus (CSFV) are members of the family Suidae, i.e., Eurasian wild boar (sus scrofa) are also susceptible. CSF in wild boar poses a serious threat to domestic pigs. CSFV is an enveloped RNA virus belonging to the pestivirus genus of the Flaviviridae family. Transmission of the infection is usually by direct contact or by feeding of contaminated meat products. In recent decades CSF has been successfully eradicated from Australia, North America, and the European Union. In areas with dense wild boar populations CSF tends to become endemic whereas it is often self-limiting in small, less dense populations. In recent decades eradication strategies of CSF in wild boar have been improved considerably. The reduction of the number of susceptible animals to a threshold level where the basic reproductive number is R 0 < 1 is the major goal of all control efforts. Depending on the epidemiological situation, hunting measures combined with strict hygiene may be effective in areas with a relatively low density of wild boar. Oral immunization was shown to be highly effective in endemic situations in areas with a high density of wild boar.

Spatio-temporal Analysis of African Swine Fever in Sardinia (2012-2014): Trends in Domestic Pigs and Wild Boar

African swine fever (ASF) is a notifiable viral disease affecting domestic pigs and wild boars that has been endemic in Sardinia since 1978. Several risk factors complicate the control of ASF in Sardinia: generally poor level of biosecurity, traditional breeding practices, illegal behaviour in movements and feeding of pigs, and sporadic occurrence of long-term carriers. A previous study describes the disease in Sardinia during 1978-2013. The aim of this study was to gain more in-depth knowledge of the spatio-temporal pattern of ASF in Sardinia during 2012 to May 2014, comparing patterns of occurrence in domestic pigs and wild boar and identifying areas of local transmission. African swine fever notifications were studied considering seasonality, spatial autocorrelation, spatial point pattern and spatio-temporal clusters. Results showed differences in temporal and spatial pattern of wild boar and domestic pig notifications. The peak in wild boar notifications (October 2013 to February 2014) occurred six months after than in domestic pig (May to early summer 2013). Notifications of cases in both host species tended to be clustered, with a maximum significant distance of spatial association of 15 and 25 km in domestic pigs and wild boars, respectively. Five clusters for local ASF transmission were identified for domestic pigs, with a mean radius and duration of 4 km (3-9 km) and 38 days (6-55 days), respectively. Any wild boar clusters were found. The apparently secondary role of wild boar in ASF spread in Sardinia could be explained by certain socio-economic factors (illegal free-range pig breeding or the mingling of herds. The lack of effectiveness of previous surveillance and control programmes reveals the necessity of employing a new approach). Results present here provide better knowledge of the dynamics of ASF in Sardinia, which could be used in a more comprehensive risk analysis necessary to introduce a new approach in the eradication strategy.

Spatial dynamics of bovine tuberculosis in the Autonomous Community of Madrid, Spain (2010-2012)

Progress in control of bovine tuberculosis (bTB) is often not uniform, usually due to the effect of one or more sometimes unknown epidemiological factors impairing the success of eradication programs. Use of spatial analysis can help to identify clusters of persistence of disease, leading to the identification of these factors thus allowing the implementation of targeted control measures, and may provide some insights of disease transmission, particularly when combined with molecular typing techniques. Here, the spatial dynamics of bTB in a high prevalence region of Spain were assessed during a three year period (2010-2012) using data from the eradication campaigns to detect clusters of positive bTB herds and of those infected with certain Mycobacterium bovis strains (characterized using spoligotyping and VNTR typing). In addition, the within-herd transmission coefficient (β) was estimated in infected herds and its spatial distribution and association with other potential outbreak and herd variables was evaluated. Significant clustering of positive herds was identified in the three years of the study in the same location ("high risk area"). Three spoligotypes (SB0339, SB0121 and SB1142) accounted for >70% of the outbreaks detected in the three years. VNTR subtyping revealed the presence of few but highly prevalent strains within the high risk area, suggesting maintained transmission in the area. The spatial autocorrelation found in the distribution of the estimated within-herd transmission coefficients in herds located within distances <14 km and the results of the spatial regression analysis, support the hypothesis of shared local factors affecting disease transmission in farms located at a close proximity.

Assessing the Risk of African Swine Fever Introduction into the European Union by Wild Boar

The presence of African swine fever (ASF) in the Caucasus region and Russian Federation has increased concerns that wild boars may introduce the ASF virus into the European Union (EU). This study describes a semi-quantitative approach for evaluating the risk of ASF introduction into the EU by wild boar movements based on the following risk estimators: the susceptible population of (1) wild boars and (2) domestic pigs in the country of origin; the outbreak density in (3) wild boars and (4) domestic pigs in the countries of origin, the (5) suitable habitat for wild boars along the EU border; and the distance between the EU border and the nearest ASF outbreak in (6) wild boars or (7) domestic pigs. Sensitivity analysis was performed to identify the most influential risk estimators. The highest risk was found to be concentrated in Finland, Romania, Latvia and Poland, and wild boar habitat and outbreak density were the two most important risk estimators. Animal health authorities in at-risk countries should be aware of these risk estimators and should communicate closely with wild boar hunters and pig farmers to rapidly detect and control ASF.

Introduction of African swine fever into the European Union through illegal importation of pork and pork products

Transboundary animal diseases can have very severe socio-economic impacts when introduced into new regions. The history of disease incursions into the European Union suggests that initial outbreaks were often initiated by illegal importation of meat and derived products. The European Union would benefit from decision-support tools to evaluate the risk of disease introduction caused by illegal imports in order to inform its surveillance strategy. However, due to the difficulty in quantifying illegal movements of animal products, very few studies of this type have been conducted. Using African swine fever as an example, this work presents a novel risk assessment framework for disease introduction into the European Union through illegal importation of meat and products. It uses a semi-quantitative approach based on factors that likely influence the likelihood of release of contaminated smuggled meat and products, and subsequent exposure of the susceptible population. The results suggest that the European Union is at non-negligible risk of African swine fever introduction through illegal importation of pork and products. On a relative risk scale with six categories from negligible to very high, five European Union countries were estimated at high (France, Germany, Italy and United Kingdom) or moderate (Spain) risk of African swine fever release, five countries were at high risk of exposure if African swine fever were released (France, Italy, Poland, Romania and Spain) and ten countries had a moderate exposure risk (Austria, Bulgaria, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Portugal, Sweden and United Kingdom). The approach presented here and results obtained for African swine fever provide a basis for the enhancement of risk-based surveillance systems and disease prevention programmes in the European Union.

Reducing Eurasian wild boar (Sus scrofa) population density as a measure for bovine tuberculosis control: effects in wild boar and a sympatric fallow deer (Dama dama) population in Central Spain

Research on management of bovine tuberculosis (bTB) in wildlife reservoir hosts is crucial for the implementation of effective disease control measures and the generation of practical bTB management recommendations. Among the management methods carried out on wild species to reduce bTB prevalence, the control of population density has been frequently used, with hunting pressure a practical strategy to reduce bTB prevalence. However, despite the number of articles about population density control in different bTB wildlife reservoirs, there is little information regarding the application of such measures on the Eurasian wild boar (Sus scrofa), which is considered the main bTB wildlife reservoir within Mediterranean ecosystems. This study shows the effects of a management measure leading to a radical decrease in wild boar population density at a large hunting estate in Central Spain, in order to assess the evolution of bTB prevalence in both the wild boar population and the sympatric fallow deer population. The evolution of bTB prevalence was monitored in populations of the two wild ungulate species over a 5-year study period (2007-2012). The results showed that bTB prevalence decreased in fallow deer, corresponding to an important reduction in the wild boar population. However, this decrease was not homogeneous: in the last season of study there was an increase in bTB-infected male animals. Moreover, bTB prevalence remained high in the remnant wild boar population.