Has influenza B/Yamagata become extinct and what implications might this have for quadrivalent influenza vaccines?

The economic rationale for cell-based influenza vaccines in children and adults: A review of cost-effectiveness analyses

Seasonal influenza significantly affects both health and economic costs in children and adults. This narrative review summarizes published cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs) of cell-based influenza vaccines in children and adults <65 years of age, critically assesses the assumptions and approaches used in these analyses, and considers the role of cell-based influenza vaccines for children and adults. CEAs from multiple countries demonstrated the cost-effectiveness of cell-based quadrivalent influenza vaccines (QIVc) compared with egg-based trivalent/quadrivalent influenza vaccines (TIVe/QIVe). CEA findings were consistent across models relying on different relative vaccine effectiveness (rVE) estimate inputs, with the rVE of QIVc versus QIVe ranging from 8.1% to 36.2% in favor of QIVc. Across multiple scenarios and types of analyses, QIVc was consistently cost-effective compared with QIVe, including in children and adults across different regions of the world.

Global analysis of respiratory viral circulation and timing of epidemics in the pre-COVID-19 and COVID-19 pandemic eras, based on data from the Global Influenza Surveillance and Response System (GISRS)

OBJECTIVES

The COVID-19 pandemic significantly changed respiratory viruses' epidemiology due to non-pharmaceutical interventions and possible viral interactions. This study investigates whether the circulation patterns of respiratory viruses have returned to pre-pandemic norms by comparing their peak timing and duration during the first three SARS-CoV-2 seasons to pre-pandemic times.

METHODS

Global Influenza Surveillance and Response System data from 194 countries (2014-2023) was analyzed for epidemic peak timing and duration, focusing on pre-pandemic and pandemic periods across both hemispheres and the intertropical belt. The analysis was restricted to countries meeting specific data thresholds to ensure robustness.

RESULTS

In 2022/2023, the northern hemisphere experienced earlier influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) peaks by 1.9 months (P <0.001). The duration of influenza epidemics increased by 2.2 weeks (P <0.001), with RSV showing a similar trend. The southern hemisphere's influenza peak shift was not significant (P = 0.437). Intertropical regions presented no substantial change in peak timing but experienced a significant reduction in the duration for human metapneumovirus and adenovirus (7.2 and 6.5 weeks shorter, respectively, P <0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The pandemic altered the typical patterns of influenza and RSV, with earlier peaks in 2022 in temperate areas. These findings highlight the importance of robust surveillance data to inform public health strategies on evolving viral dynamics in the years to come.

Longitudinal assessment of human antibody binding to hemagglutinin elicited by split-inactivated influenza vaccination over six consecutive seasons

Participants between the ages of 10-86 years old were vaccinated with split-inactivated influenza vaccine (Fluzone®) in six consecutive influenza seasons from 2016-2017 to 2021-2022. Vaccine effectiveness varies from season to season as a result of both host immune responses as well as evolutionary changes in the influenza virus surface glycoproteins that provide challenges to vaccine manufacturers to produce more effective annual vaccines. Next generation influenza vaccines are in development and may provide protective immune responses against a broader number of influenza viruses and reduce the need for annual vaccination. An improved understanding how current influenza vaccines are influenced by human host immune responses in people of different ages and co-morbidities is necessary for designing the next-generation of 'universal' or broadly-protective influenza vaccines. Overall, pre-existing immune responses to previous influenza virus exposures, either by past infections or vaccinations, is a critical factor influencing host responses to seasonal influenza vaccination. Participants vaccinated in consecutive seasons had reduced serum hemagglutination-inhibition (HAI) activity against strains included in the vaccine compared to participants that had not been vaccinated in the preceding 1-2 years prior to entering this study. The magnitude and breadth of these antibody responses were also modulated by the age of the participant. Elderly participants over 65 years of age, in general, had lower pre-existing HAI titers each season prior to vaccination with lower post-vaccination titers compared to children or young adults under the age of 35. The administration of higher doses (HD) of the split-inactivated vaccine enhanced the antibody titers in the elderly. This report showcases 6 consecutive years of antibody HAI activity in human subjects receiving seasonal split-inactivated influenza vaccine.

Outbreak of influenza and SARS-CoV-2 at the Armed Forces of the Philippines Health Service Education and Training Center, September 25-October 10, 2023

In the last week of September 2023, a surge of influenza-like illness was observed among students of the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) Health Service Education and Training Center, where 48 (27 males and 21 females; age in years: mean 33, range 27-41) of 247 military students at the Center presented with respiratory symptoms. Between September 25 and October 10, 2023, all 48 symptomatic students were evaluated with real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction and sequencing for both influenza and SARS-CoV-2. Thirteen (27%) students were found positive for influenza A/H3 only, 6 (13%) for SARS-CoV-2 only, and 4 (8%) were co-infected with influenza A/H3 and SARS-CoV-2. Seventeen influenza A/ H3N2 viruses belonged to the same clade, 3C.2a1b.2a.2a.3a, and 4 SARSCoV-2 sequences belonged to the JE1.1 lineage, indicating a common source outbreak for both. The influenza A/H3N2 circulating virus belonged to a different clade than the vaccine strain for 2023 (3C.2a1b.2a.2a). Only 4 students had received the influenza vaccine for 2023. In response, the AFP Surgeon General issued a memorandum to all military health institutions on October 19, 2023 that mandated influenza vaccination as a prerequisite for enrollment of students at all education and training centers, along with implementation of non-pharmaceutical interventions and early notification and testing of students exhibiting influenza-like-illness.

Probable extinction of influenza B/Yamagata and its public health implications: a systematic literature review and assessment of global surveillance databases

Early after the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, the detection of influenza B/Yamagata cases decreased globally. Given the potential public health implications of this decline, in this Review, we systematically analysed data on influenza B/Yamagata virus circulation (for 2020-23) from multiple complementary sources of information. We identified relevant articles published in PubMed and Embase, and data from the FluNet, Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data, and GenBank databases, webpages of respiratory virus surveillance systems from countries worldwide, and the Global Influenza Hospital Surveillance Network. A progressive decline of influenza B/Yamagata detections was reported across all sources, in absolute terms (total number of cases), as positivity rate, and as a proportion of influenza B detections. Sporadically reported influenza B/Yamagata cases since March, 2020 were mostly vaccine-derived, attributed to data entry errors, or have yet to be definitively confirmed. The likelihood of extinction necessitates a rapid response in terms of reassessing the composition of influenza vaccines, enhanced surveillance for B/Yamagata, and a possible change in the biosafety level when handling B/Yamagata viruses in laboratories.

The effect of nonpharmaceutical interventions on influenza virus transmission

Background

The use of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) during severe acute respiratory syndrome 2019 (COVID-19) outbreaks may influence the spread of influenza viruses. This study aimed to evaluate the impact of NPIs against SARS-CoV-2 on the epidemiological features of the influenza season in China.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective observational study analyzing influenza monitoring data obtained from the China National Influenza Center between 2011 and 2023. We compared the changes in influenza-positive patients in the pre-COVID-19 epidemic, during the COVID-19 epidemic, and post-COVID-19 epidemic phases to evaluate the effect of NPIs on influenza virus transmission.

Results

NPIs targeting COVID-19 significantly suppressed influenza activity in China from 2019 to 2022. In the seventh week after the implementation of the NPIs, the number of influenza-positive patients decreased by 97.46% in southern regions of China and 90.31% in northern regions of China. However, the lifting of these policies in December 2022 led to an unprecedented surge in influenza-positive cases in autumn and winter from 2022 to 2023. The percentage of positive influenza cases increased by 206.41% (p < 0.001), with high positivity rates reported in both the northern and southern regions of China.

Conclusion

Our findings suggest that NPIs against SARS-CoV-2 are effective at controlling influenza epidemics but may compromise individuals' immunity to the virus.

Promises and challenges of single-domain antibodies to control influenza

The World Health Organization advices the use of a quadrivalent vaccine as prophylaxis against influenza, to prevent severe influenza-associated disease and -mortality, and to keep up with influenza antigenic diversity. Different small molecule antivirals to treat influenza have become available. However, emergence of drug resistant influenza viruses has been observed upon use of these antivirals. An appealing alternative approach to prevent or treat influenza is the use of antibody-based antivirals, such as conventional monoclonal antibodies and single-domain antibodies (sdAbs). The surface of the influenza A and B virion is decorated with hemagglutinin molecules, which act as receptor-binding and membrane fusion proteins and represent the main target of neutralizing antibodies. SdAbs that target influenza A and B hemagglutinin have been described. In addition, sdAbs directed against the influenza A virus neuraminidase have been reported, whereas no sdAbs targeting influenza B neuraminidase have been described to date. SdAbs directed against influenza A matrix protein 2 or its ectodomain have been reported, while no sdAbs have been described targeting the influenza B matrix protein 2. Known for their high specificity, ease of production and formatting, sdAb-based antivirals could be a major leap forward in influenza control.

Immunogenicity of High-Dose Versus MF59-Adjuvanted Versus Standard Influenza Vaccine in Solid Organ Transplant Recipients: The Swiss/Spanish Trial in Solid Organ Transplantation on Prevention of Influenza (STOP-FLU Trial)

BACKGROUND

The immunogenicity of the standard influenza vaccine is reduced in solid-organ transplant (SOT) recipients, so new vaccination strategies are needed in this population.

METHODS

Adult SOT recipients from 9 transplant clinics in Switzerland and Spain were enrolled if they were >3 months after transplantation. Patients were randomized (1:1:1) to a MF59-adjuvanted or a high-dose vaccine (intervention), or a standard vaccine (control), with stratification by organ and time from transplant. The primary outcome was vaccine response rate, defined as a ≥4-fold increase of hemagglutination-inhibition titers to at least 1 vaccine strain at 28 days postvaccination. Secondary outcomes included polymerase chain reaction-confirmed influenza and vaccine reactogenicity.

RESULTS

A total of 619 patients were randomized, 616 received the assigned vaccines, and 598 had serum available for analysis of the primary endpoint (standard, n = 198; MF59-adjuvanted, n = 205; high-dose, n = 195 patients). Vaccine response rates were 42% (84/198) in the standard vaccine group, 60% (122/205) in the MF59-adjuvanted vaccine group, and 66% (129/195) in the high-dose vaccine group (difference in intervention vaccines vs standard vaccine, 0.20; 97.5% confidence interval [CI], .12-1); P < .001; difference in high-dose vs standard vaccine, 0.24 [95% CI, .16-1]; P < .001; difference in MF59-adjuvanted vs standard vaccine, 0.17 [97.5% CI, .08-1]; P < .001). Influenza occurred in 6% of the standard, 5% in the MF59-adjuvanted, and 7% in the high-dose vaccine groups. Vaccine-related adverse events occurred more frequently in the intervention vaccine groups, but most of the events were mild.

CONCLUSIONS

In SOT recipients, use of an MF59-adjuvanted or a high-dose influenza vaccine was safe and resulted in a higher vaccine response rate.

CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION

Clinicaltrials.gov NCT03699839.

Multivalent Epigraph Hemagglutinin Vaccine Protects against Influenza B Virus in Mice

Influenza B virus is a respiratory pathogen that contributes to seasonal epidemics, accounts for approximately 25% of global influenza infections, and can induce severe disease in young children. While vaccination is the most commonly used method of preventing influenza infections, current vaccines only induce strain-specific responses and have suboptimal efficacy when mismatched from circulating strains. Further, two influenza B virus lineages have been described, B/Yamagata-like and B/Victoria-like, and the limited cross-reactivity between the two lineages provides an additional barrier in developing a universal influenza B virus vaccine. Here, we report a novel multivalent vaccine using computationally designed Epigraph hemagglutinin proteins targeting both the B/Yamagata-like and B/Victoria-like lineages. When compared to the quadrivalent commercial vaccine, the Epigraph vaccine demonstrated increased breadth of neutralizing antibody and T cell responses. After lethal heterologous influenza B virus challenge, mice immunized with the Epigraph vaccine were completely protected against both weight loss and mortality. The superior cross-reactive immunity conferred by the Epigraph vaccine immunogens supports their continued investigation as a universal influenza B virus vaccine.

A systematic review of influenza virus in water environments across human, poultry, and wild bird habitats

Influenza, a highly contagious acute respiratory disease, remains a major global health concern. This study aimed to comprehensively assess the prevalence of influenza virus in different aquatic environments. Using 43 articles from four databases, we thoroughly examined water matrices from wastewater treatment plants (WTPs) and other human environments, as well as poultry habitats and areas frequented by migratory wild birds. In WTP influents (10 studies), positivity rates for influenza A ranged from 0.0 % to 97.6 %. For influenza B (8 studies), most studies reported no positivity, except for three studies reporting detection in 0.8 %, 5.6 %, and 46.9 % of samples. Within poultry habitats (13 studies), the prevalence of influenza A ranged from 4.3 % to 76.4 %, while in environments frequented by migratory wild birds (11 studies), it ranged from 0.4 % to 69.8 %. Geographically, the studies were distributed as follows: 39.5 % from the Americas, 18.6 % from Europe, 2.3 % from South-East Asia and 39.5 % from the Western Pacific. Several influenza A subtypes were found in water matrices, including avian influenza (H3N6, H3N8, H4N1, H4N2, H4N6, H4N8, H5N1, H5N8, H6N2, H6N6, H7N9, H0N8, and H11N9) and seasonal human influenza (H1N1 and H3N2). The existing literature indicates a crucial requirement for more extensive future research on this topic. Specifically, it emphasizes the need for method harmonization and delves into areas deserving of in-depth research, such as water matrices pertaining to pig farming and prevalence studies in low-income countries.

Influenza B virus neuraminidase: a potential target for next-generation vaccines?

INTRODUCTION

Influenza B viruses (IBV) cause a significant health and economic burden annually. Due to lower antigenic drift rate, less extensive antigenic diversity, and lack of animal reservoirs, the development of highly effective universal vaccines against IBV might be in reach. Current seasonal influenza vaccines are formulated to induce antibodies against the Hemagglutinin (HA) protein, but their effectiveness is reduced by mismatch between vaccine and circulating strains.

AREAS COVERED

Given antibodies against the Neuraminidase (NA) have been associated with protection during influenza infection, there is considerable interest in the development of NA-based influenza vaccines. This review summarizes insights into the role of NA-based immunity against IBV and highlights knowledge gaps that should be addressed to inform the design of next-generation influenza B vaccines. We discuss how antibodies recognize broadly cross-reactive epitopes on the NA and the lack of understanding of IBV NA antigenic evolution which would benefit vaccine development in the future.

EXPERT OPINION

Demonstrating NA antibodies as correlates of protection for IBV in humans would be paramount. Determining the extent of IBV NA antigenic evolution will be informative. Finally, it will be critical to determine optimal strategies for incorporating the appropriate NA antigens in existing clinically approved vaccine formulations.

Resurgence of influenza during COVID-19 in Chongqing, China: A retrospective analysis

To better understand the trends of influenza and the impact of public health and social measures (PHSMs) implemented during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) period in Chongqing, China. Data from the China Influenza Surveillance Information System from January 2017 to June 2022 were extracted. Epidemiological characteristics (influenza-like illness [ILI] and ILI%) and virological characteristics (influenza positive rate and circulating (sub)types) of influenza were described and compared between the pre-COVID-19 period and the COVID-19 period. Our survey showed that the implementation of PHSMs during the COVID-19 period had a positive impact on reducing influenza transmission. However, influenza activity resurged in 2021-2022 as the PHSMs were eased. Children under 5 years old constituted the highest proportion of ILI cases. The overall influenza positive rate was 23.70%, with a higher rate observed during the pre-COVID-19 period (31.55%) compared to the COVID-19 period (13.68%). Influenza virus subtypes co-circulated and the predominant subtype varied each year, with influenza A subtypes predominated in 2018/2019, while influenza B/Victoria lineage dominated in 2020/2021. PHSMs are effective measures to mitigate the spread of influenza. The findings underscore the need for bolstering monitoring systems, advocating influenza vaccination, and implementing practical PHSMs to strengthen prevention and control measures against influenza.

Existing Evidence for Influenza B Virus Adaptations to Drive Replication in Humans as the Primary Host

Influenza B virus (IBV) is one of the two major types of influenza viruses that circulate each year. Unlike influenza A viruses, IBV does not harbor pandemic potential due to its lack of historical circulation in non-human hosts. Many studies and reviews have highlighted important factors for host determination of influenza A viruses. However, much less is known about the factors driving IBV replication in humans. We hypothesize that similar factors influence the host restriction of IBV. Here, we compile and review the current understanding of host factors crucial for the various stages of the IBV viral replication cycle. While we discovered the research in this area of IBV is limited, we review known host factors that may indicate possible host restriction of IBV to humans. These factors include the IBV hemagglutinin (HA) protein, host nuclear factors, and viral immune evasion proteins. Our review frames the current understanding of IBV adaptations to replication in humans. However, this review is limited by the amount of research previously completed on IBV host determinants and would benefit from additional future research in this area.

A computationally optimized broadly reactive hemagglutinin vaccine elicits neutralizing antibodies against influenza B viruses from both lineages

Influenza B viruses (IBV) can cause severe disease and death much like influenza A viruses (IAV), with a disproportionate number of infections in children. Despite moving to a quadrivalent vaccine to include strains from both the B/Victoria and B/Yamagata lineages, vaccine effectiveness rates continue to be variable and low in many past seasons. To develop more effective influenza B virus vaccines, three novel IBV hemagglutinin (HA) vaccines were designed using a computationally optimized broadly reactive antigen (COBRA) methodology. These IBV HA proteins were expressed on the surface of a virus-like particle (VLP) and used to vaccinate ferrets that were pre-immune to historical B/Victoria or B/Yamagata lineage viruses. Ferrets vaccinated with B-COBRA HA vaccines had neutralizing antibodies with high titer HAI titer against all influenza B viruses regardless of pre-immunization history. Conversely, VLPs expressing wild-type IBV HA antigens preferentially boosted titers against viruses from the same lineage and there was little-to-no seroprotective antibodies detected in ferrets with mismatched IBV pre-immune infections. Overall, a single IBV HA developed using the COBRA methodology elicited protective broadly-reactive antibodies against current and future drifted IBVs from both lineages.

Development of an Enhanced High-Yield Influenza Vaccine Backbone in Embryonated Chicken Eggs

Vaccination is an efficient approach to preventing influenza virus infections. Recently, we developed influenza A and B virus vaccine backbones that increased the yield of several vaccine viruses in Madin-Darby canine kidney (MDCK) and African green monkey kidney (Vero) cells. These vaccine backbones also increased viral replication in embryonated chicken eggs, which are the most frequently used platform for influenza vaccine manufacturing. In this study, to further increase the viral titers in embryonated chicken eggs, we introduced random mutations into the 'internal genes' (i.e., all influenza viral genes except those encoding the hemagglutinin and neuraminidase proteins) of the influenza A virus high-yield virus backbone we developed previously. The randomly mutated viruses were sequentially passaged in embryonated chicken eggs to select variants with increased replicative ability. We identified a candidate that conferred higher influenza virus growth than the high-yield parental virus backbone. Although the observed increases in virus growth may be considered small, they are highly relevant for vaccine manufacturers.

Brand-specific estimates of influenza vaccine effectiveness for the 2021-2022 season in Europe: results from the DRIVE multi-stakeholder study platform

Introduction

Development of Robust and Innovative Vaccine Effectiveness (DRIVE) was a European public-private partnership (PPP) that aimed to provide annual, brand-specific estimates of influenza vaccine effectiveness (IVE) for regulatory and public health purposes. DRIVE was launched in 2017 under the umbrella of the Innovative Medicines Initiative (IMI) and conducted IVE studies from its pilot season in 2017-2018 to its final season in 2021-2022.

Methods

In 2021-2022, DRIVE conducted four primary care-based test-negative design (TND) studies (Austria, Italy, Iceland, and England; involving >1,000 general practitioners), nine hospital-based TND studies (France, Iceland, Italy, Romania, and Spain, for a total of 21 hospitals), and one population-based cohort study in Finland. In the TND studies, patients with influenza-like illness (primary care) or severe acute respiratory infection (hospital) were enrolled, and laboratory tested for influenza using RT-PCR. Study contributor-specific IVE was calculated using logistic regression, adjusting for age, sex, and calendar time, and pooled by meta-analysis.

Results

In 2021-2022, pooled confounder-adjusted influenza vaccine effectiveness (IVE) estimates against laboratory-confirmed influenza (LCI) overall and per type and subtype/lineage was produced, albeit with wide confidence intervals (CI). The limited circulation of influenza in Europe did not allow the network to reach the optimal sample size to produce precise IVE estimates for all the brands included. The most significant IVE estimates were 76% (95% CI 23%-93%) for any vaccine and 81% (22%-95%) for Vaxigrip Tetra in adults ≥65 years old and 64% (25%-83%) for Fluenz Tetra in children (TND primary care setting), 85% (12%-97%) for any vaccine in adults 18-64 years (TND hospital setting), and 38% (1%-62%) in children 6 months-6 years (population-based cohort, mixed setting).

Discussion

Over five seasons, DRIVE collected data on >35,000 patients, more than 60 variables, and 13 influenza vaccines. DRIVE demonstrated that estimating brand-specific IVE across Europe is possible, but achieving sufficient sample size to obtain precise estimates for all relevant stratifications remains a challenge. Finally, DRIVE's network of study contributors and lessons learned have greatly contributed to the development of the COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness platform COVIDRIVE.

Global variability of influenza activity and virus subtype circulation from 2011 to 2023

BACKGROUND

Although decreased influenza activity has been reported in many countries during the COVID-19 pandemic, it remains unknown how global influenza activity has changed. We described the global variability of influenza activity and virus subtype circulation from 2011 to 2023 to prepare for the potential influenza outbreak with the control of the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

Influenza virological surveillance data between 2011 and 2023 were obtained from the WHO-FluNet database. We first calculated and compared the influenza activity before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. For countries whose influenza activity has recovered, we also described changes in the duration of influenza epidemics. We then determined the proportion of influenza cases caused by the different influenza virus types.

RESULTS

In total, 73 countries with 2.17 million influenza cases were included. In the early stage of the COVID-19 pandemic, decreased influenza activity was observed in all WHO regions. In 2022 and 2023, rebound in influenza activity was observed in all WHO regions, especially in Western Pacific Region. At the same time, a change in the duration of the influenza epidemic was observed in several Southern Hemisphere countries. Moreover, in all WHO regions, few B/Yamagata viruses were detected during the COVID-19 pandemic.

CONCLUSIONS

Lack of exposure to influenza will diminish population immunity and increase the severity of large epidemics on a future global resurgence. Ongoing monitoring of the changes in the duration of the influenza epidemic and circulation subtypes should be the focus of future work.

Moderately Low Effectiveness of the Influenza Quadrivalent Vaccine: Potential Mismatch between Circulating Strains and Vaccine Strains

The annual seasonal influenza vaccination is the most effective way of preventing influenza illness and hospitalization. However, the effectiveness of influenza vaccines has always been controversial. Therefore, we investigated the ability of the quadrivalent influenza vaccine to induce effective protection. Here we report strain-specific influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) against laboratory-confirmed influenza cases during the 2019/2020 season, characterized by the co-circulation of four different influenza strains. During 2019-2020, 778 influenza-like illness (ILI) samples were collected from 302 (39%) vaccinated ILI patients and 476 (61%) unvaccinated ILI patients in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. VE was found to be 28% and 22% for influenza A and B, respectively. VE for preventing A(H3N2) and A(H1N1)pdm09 illness was 37.4% (95% CI: 43.7-54.3) and 39.2% (95% CI: 21.1-28.9), respectively. The VE for preventing influenza B Victoria lineage illness was 71.7% (95% CI: -0.9-3), while the VE for the Yamagata lineage could not be estimated due to the limited number of positive cases. The overall vaccine effectiveness was moderately low at 39.7%. Phylogenetic analysis revealed that most of the Flu A genotypes in our dataset clustered together, indicating their close genetic relatedness. In the post-COVID-19 pandemic, flu B-positive cases have reached three-quarters of the total number of influenza-positive cases, indicating a nationwide flu B surge. The reasons for this phenomenon, if related to the quadrivalent flu VE, need to be explored. Annual monitoring and genetic characterization of circulating influenza viruses are important to support Influenza surveillance systems and to improve influenza vaccine effectiveness.

The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Influenza Transmission in Poland

BACKGROUND

The aim of this study was to determine whether the occurrence of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic affected the incidence of influenza in Poland and the efficiency of the SENTINEL influenza surveillance system.

METHODS

The analysis was based on virologic data from the 2018/2019-2021/2022 epidemic seasons. The data in question were obtained from the SENTINEL influenza surveillance system, which is utilized in Poland.

RESULTS

In the 2020/2021 epidemic season, only one positive case was confirmed. In the epidemic season of 2021/2022, the number of positive cases increased. There was a delay in the peak of the season, since the start of pandemic, which was observed in the 14th week of 2022. Previously, it was recorded in the 5-10th week, depending on the season. Before the pandemic, the number of positive samples in relation to the tested ones oscillated between 41-49.4%. After the pandemic, it was 0.3% and below 20%, respectively, for season 2020/2021 and season 2021/2022.

CONCLUSIONS

The COVID-19 pandemic caused a decline in many other infectious diseases, including influenza, as a result of the numerous lockdowns and from people shifting to remote work. Other safety measures, such as obligatory protective masks and the use of disinfectants, had a significant impact on reducing the number of cases.

Global patterns and drivers of influenza decline during the COVID-19 pandemic

OBJECTIVES

The influenza circulation reportedly declined during the COVID-19 pandemic in many countries. The occurrence of this change has not been studied worldwide nor its potential drivers.

METHODS

The change in the proportion of positive influenza samples reported by country and trimester was computed relative to the 2014-2019 period using the FluNet database. Random forests were used to determine predictors of change from demographical, weather, pandemic preparedness, COVID-19 incidence, and pandemic response characteristics. Regression trees were used to classify observations according to these predictors.

RESULTS

During the COVID-19 pandemic, the influenza decline relative to prepandemic levels was global but heterogeneous across space and time. It was more than 50% for 311 of 376 trimesters-countries and even more than 99% for 135. COVID-19 incidence and pandemic preparedness were the two most important predictors of the decline. Europe and North America initially showed limited decline despite high COVID-19 restrictions; however, there was a strong decline afterward in most temperate countries, where pandemic preparedness, COVID-19 incidence, and social restrictions were high; the decline was limited in countries where these factors were low. The "zero-COVID" countries experienced the greatest decline.

CONCLUSION

Our findings set the stage for interpreting the resurgence of influenza worldwide.

Preparing for the upcoming 2022/23 influenza season: A modelling study of the susceptible population in Australia, France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom

We analysed the influenza epidemic that occurred in Australia during the 2022 winter using an age-structured dynamic transmission model, which accounts for past epidemics to estimate the population susceptibility to an influenza infection. We applied the same model to five European countries. Our analysis suggests Europe might experience an early and moderately large influenza epidemic. Also, differences may arise between countries, with Germany and Spain experiencing larger epidemics, than France, Italy and the United Kingdom, especially in children.