Diagnostic stability over 2 years in patients with acute and transient psychotic disorders

Development and Validation of Predictive Model for a Diagnosis of First Episode Psychosis Using the Multinational EU-GEI Case-control Study and Modern Statistical Learning Methods

Background and Hypothesis

It is argued that availability of diagnostic models will facilitate a more rapid identification of individuals who are at a higher risk of first episode psychosis (FEP). Therefore, we developed, evaluated, and validated a diagnostic risk estimation model to classify individual with FEP and controls across six countries.

Study Design

We used data from a large multi-center study encompassing 2627 phenotypically well-defined participants (aged 18-64 years) recruited from six countries spanning 17 research sites, as part of the European Network of National Schizophrenia Networks Studying Gene-Environment Interactions study. To build the diagnostic model and identify which of important factors for estimating an individual risk of FEP, we applied a binary logistic model with regularization by the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator. The model was validated employing the internal-external cross-validation approach. The model performance was assessed with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), calibration, sensitivity, and specificity.

Study Results

Having included preselected 22 predictor variables, the model was able to discriminate adults with FEP and controls with high accuracy across all six countries (rangesAUROC = 0.84-0.86). Specificity (range = 73.9-78.0%) and sensitivity (range = 75.6-79.3%) were equally good, cumulatively indicating an excellent model accuracy; though, calibration slope for the diagnostic model showed a presence of some overfitting when applied specifically to participants from France, the UK, and The Netherlands.

Conclusions

The new FEP model achieved a good discrimination and good calibration across six countries with different ethnic contributions supporting its robustness and good generalizability.

The predictive validity and outcome of ICD-10 and DSM-5 short-lived psychotic disorders: a review and meta-analysis

The ICD-10 Classification of Mental and Behavioural Disorders introduced the category of 'acute and transient psychotic disorders' (ATPDs) encompassing polymorphic, schizophrenic and predominantly delusional subtypes, and the forthcoming ICD-11 revision has restricted it to polymorphic psychotic disorder, while the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM-5) listed 'brief psychotic disorder' (BPD). To assess the predictive validity and outcome of ATPDs and BPD, relevant papers in English, French and German were searched in PubMed and Web of Science. Where possible meta-analysis of prognostic validators (diagnostic stability, course, outcome and response to treatment) was conducted. Fifty studies published between January 1993 and July 2019 were found. The clinical and functional outcome of ATPDs proved better than in schizophrenia and related disorders, but mortality risk is high, particularly suicide, and treatment trials provide little evidence. Meta-analysis of 25 studies (13,507 cases) revealed that 55% (95% CI 49-62) do not change diagnosis, 25% (95% CI 20-31) converted into schizophrenia and related disorders, and 12% (95% CI 7-16) into affective disorders on average over 6.3 years. Subgroup meta-analysis estimated prospective consistency of polymorphic psychotic disorder (55%; 95% CI 52-58) significantly greater than that of the ATPD subtypes with schizophrenic (OR 1.7; 95% CI 1.4-2.0) and predominantly delusional (OR 1.3; 95% CI 1.1-1.5) symptoms. Moreover, the diagnostic stability of BPD (13 studies; 294 cases) was 45% (95% CI 32-50) over a mean 4.2 years. Although these findings indicate that short-lived psychotic disorders have little predictive validity, significant differences among the ATPD subtypes support the revised ICD-11 ATPD category.

Diagnosis, prognosis, and treatment of brief psychotic episodes: a review and research agenda

Brief psychotic episodes represent an intriguing paradox in clinical psychiatry because they elude the standard knowledge that applies to the persisting psychotic disorders such as schizophrenia. This Review describes key diagnostic considerations such as conceptual foundations, current psychiatric classification versus research-based operationalisations, epidemiology, and sociocultural variations; prognostic aspects including the risk of psychosis recurrence, types of psychotic recurrences, other clinical outcomes, prognostic factors; and therapeutic issues such as treatment guidelines and unmet need of care. The advances and challenges associated with the scientific evidence are used to set a research agenda in this area. We conclude that brief psychotic episodes can be reconceptualised within a clinical staging model to promote innovative translational research and improve our understanding and treatment of psychotic disorders.

Clinical outcomes in brief psychotic episodes: a systematic review and meta-analysis

AIMS

Patients with brief psychotic episodes (BPE) have variable and fluctuating clinical outcomes which challenge psychiatric care. Our meta-analysis aims at providing a comprehensive summary of several clinical outcomes in this patient group.

METHODS

A multistep systematic PRISMA/MOOSE-compliant literature search was performed for articles published from inception until 1st March 2021. Web of Science database was searched, complemented by manual search of original articles reporting relevant outcomes (psychotic recurrence, prospective diagnostic change or stability, remission, quality of life, functional status, mortality and their predictors) for patients diagnosed with acute and transient psychotic disorders (ATPD), brief psychotic disorders (BPD), brief intermittent psychotic symptoms (BIPS) and brief limited intermittent psychotic symptoms (BLIPS). Random-effects methods and Q-statistics were employed, quality assessment with Newcastle-Ottawa Scale, assessment of heterogeneity with I2 index, sensitivity analyses (acute polymorphic psychotic disorders, APPD) and multiple meta-regressions, assessment of publication bias with funnel plot, Egger's test and meta-regression (psychotic recurrence and sample size).

RESULTS

A total of 91 independent articles (n = 94 samples) encompassed 37 ATPD, 24 BPD, 19 BLIPS and 14 BIPS samples, totalling 15 729 individuals (mean age: 30.89 ± 7.33 years, mean female ratio: 60%, 59% conducted in Europe). Meta-analytical risk of psychotic recurrence for all BPE increased from 15% (95% confidence interval (CI) 12-18) at 6 months, 25% (95% CI 22-30) at 12 months, 30% (95% CI 27-33) at 24 months and 33% (95% CI 30-37) at ⩾36 months follow-up, with no differences between ATPD, BPD, BLIPS and BIPS after 2 years of follow-up. Across all BPE, meta-analytical proportion of prospective diagnostic stability (average follow-up 47 months) was 49% (95% CI 42-56); meta-analytical proportion of diagnostic change (average follow-up 47 months) to schizophrenia spectrum psychoses was 19% (95% CI 16-23), affective spectrum psychoses 5% (95% CI 3-7), other psychotic disorders 7% (95% CI 5-9) and other (non-psychotic) mental disorders 14% (95% CI 11-17). Prospective diagnostic change within APPD without symptoms of schizophrenia was 34% (95% CI 24-46) at a mean follow-up of 51 months: 18% (95% CI 11-30) for schizophrenia spectrum psychoses and 17% (95% CI 10-26) for other (non-psychotic) mental disorders. Meta-analytical proportion of baseline employment was 48% (95% CI 38-58), whereas there were not enough data to explore the other outcomes. Heterogeneity was high; female ratio and study quality were negatively and positively associated with risk of psychotic recurrence, respectively. There were no consistent factor predicting clinical outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

Short-lived psychotic episodes are associated with a high risk of psychotic recurrences, in particular schizophrenia spectrum disorders. Other clinical outcomes remain relatively underinvestigated. There are no consistent prognostic/predictive factors.

Prognostic significance of psychotic relapse in patients with first-episode acute and transient psychosis: New empirical support for ICD-11

This study examined the impact of psychotic relapse on the diagnostic stability of acute and transient psychotic disorders (ATPD), and how this potential risk factor could differentiate 'acute polymorphic psychotic disorder without symptoms of schizophrenia' (APPD; ICD-10 code F23.0) from the remaining non-APPD subtypes (F23.1-9). A two-year cohort study was performed on 68 patients with first-episode ATPD. At the end of follow-up, the diagnostic stability of ATPD was 55.9% and the overall rate of psychotic relapse was 61.8%. Statistical analysis showed that recurrence was an independent risk factor for diagnostic shift in ATPDs (relative risk [RR] = 1.67, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.17-2.39; p = 0.005) and that this risk differed among their subtypes insofar as its appearance significantly increased the likelihood of diagnostic change in patients with non-APPD subtypes (RR = 2.52, 95% CI = 1.56-4.07; p < 0.001), but not in those with APPD (RR = 0.95, 95% CI = 0.57-1.57; p = 0.844). Our findings confirm the negative implications of recurrence in patients with ATPD, encourage long-term intervention targeting relapse prevention in this population, and provide new empirical evidence in support of narrowing the ATPD category to APPD in the upcoming ICD-11.

Employment and relationship outcomes in first-episode psychosis: A systematic review and meta-analysis of longitudinal studies

As employment and relationship status are important long-term outcomes in individuals with a diagnosis of first episode psychosis (FEP) disorders, there is a need to elucidate more accurately the extent of these social deficits in people with FEP. This in turn can aid treatment planning and policy development ultimately ensuring more complete and sustainable recoveries. We carried out a systematic review and meta-analysis of longitudinal studies in FEP reporting on employment and relationship status during the illness course. Random effects meta-analyses and meta-regression analyses were employed. Seventy-four studies were included with a sample totalling 15,272 (range = 20-1724) FEP cases with an average follow-up duration of 8.3 years (SD = 7.2). 32.5% (95%CI = 28.5-36.9) of people with a diagnosis of FEP disorders were employed and 21.3% (95%CI = 16.5-27.1) were in a relationship at the end of follow-up. Studies from high-income countries and Europe had a higher proportion of people in employment at the end of follow-up compared to middle-income nations and non-European countries. The inverse was found for relationship status. The proportion of people with a diagnosis of FEP in employment decreased significantly with longer follow-up. Living with family, being in a relationship at first contact and Black and White ethnicities were identified as significant moderators of these outcomes. These findings highlight marked functional recovery deficits for people with FEP, although cultural factors need to be considered. They support the need for interventions to improve employment opportunities, and social functioning, both in early psychosis and during the longitudinal illness course.

Naturalistic follow-up study of rehospitalization rates and assigned disability status of patients with first-episode schizophrenia spectrum psychosis in South East Latvia: preliminary results

BACKGROUND

Patients with first-episode schizophrenia spectrum psychosis (FEP) are at risk of not visiting an out-patient psychiatrist and are assigned disability status within a short period after diagnosis.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to conduct a naturalistic follow-up of FEP patients to explore their use of mental healthcare services and the rate of assigned disability status after FEP.

METHODS

This was the first study in Latvia to include all consecutive patients with FEP admitted to the largest regional hospital in South East Latvia, Daugavpils Psychoneurological Hospital (DPNH). Patients received standard treatment in a real-world environment. The mean follow-up time was 33 months (Min = 20 months, Max = 40 months).

RESULTS

From the 94 consecutive FEP patients admitted to DPNH (1 January 2016 to 31 December 2017), 68 participated and provided informed consent to be followed up. During the first 12 months after discharge from the acute psychiatric ward, 23% (n = 14) never visited a psychiatrist, and 6.5% (n = 4) had a single visit to get prescription for medication. Furthermore, 36.1% (n = 22) had a rehospitalization during the first 12 months. At the end of follow-up period, 34.4% (n = 21) of patients were assigned disability status within a median time of 8 months (IQR 4.5‒20.0).

CONCLUSION

Approximately, one-third of patients did not continue treatment as out-patients after FEP. One-third of FEP patients were assigned disability status. We suggest that Latvia needs improved treatment options for FEP patients, such as early intervention.

Predictors of diagnostic stability in acute and transient psychotic disorders: validation of previous findings and implications for ICD-11

Acute and transient psychotic disorders (ATPD) have moderate prospective diagnostic stability. Female gender, older age at onset, good premorbid adjustment, abrupt onset, shifting polymorphic symptomatology and absence of schizophrenic features have been found to be predictive factors of diagnostic stability in ATPDs. Nevertheless, most of these findings need to be replicated. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the diagnostic stability of patients with ATPD, and to determine whether previously accepted predictors of diagnostic stability for ATPD could be externally validated in our cohort. To that end, a prospective 2-year observational study was conducted on patients with first-episode ATPD. Multivariate analysis was performed to determine factors associated with ATPD diagnostic stability at the end of the follow-up period. The following prior knowledge variables were analyzed: female gender, older age at onset, good premorbid adjustment, abrupt onset, shifting polymorphic symptomatology and absence of schizophrenic features. Sixty-eight patients with first-episode ATPD completed the follow-up, of whom 55.9% (n = 38) retained their diagnosis of ATPD at the end of the study. Multivariate analysis revealed that diagnostic stability was independently significantly associated with the presence of shifting polymorphic symptomatology (OR = 7.42, 95% CI 1.65-33.30; p = 0.009) and the absence of schizophrenic features (OR = 6.37, 95% CI 1.47-27.54; p = 0.013) at the onset of the psychotic disorder. Our findings provide empirical support for the ICD-11 proposal restricting the new ATPD category to the acute polymorphic disorder without schizophrenia symptoms.

Transition of Substance-Induced, Brief, and Atypical Psychoses to Schizophrenia: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

Some people who experience substance-induced psychosis later develop an enduring psychotic disorder such as schizophrenia. This study examines the proportion of people with substance-induced psychoses who transition to schizophrenia, compares this to other brief and atypical psychoses, and examines moderators of this risk. A search of MEDLINE, PsychINFO, and Embase identified 50 eligible studies, providing 79 estimates of transition to schizophrenia among 40 783 people, including 25 studies providing 43 substance-specific estimates in 34 244 people. The pooled proportion of transition from substance-induced psychosis to schizophrenia was 25% (95% CI 18%-35%), compared with 36% (95% CI 30%-43%) for brief, atypical and not otherwise specified psychoses. Type of substance was the primary predictor of transition from drug-induced psychosis to schizophrenia, with highest rates associated with cannabis (6 studies, 34%, CI 25%-46%), hallucinogens (3 studies, 26%, CI 14%-43%) and amphetamines (5 studies, 22%, CI 14%-34%). Lower rates were reported for opioid (12%), alcohol (10%) and sedative (9%) induced psychoses. Transition rates were slightly lower in older cohorts but were not affected by sex, country of the study, hospital or community location, urban or rural setting, diagnostic methods, or duration of follow-up. Substance-induced psychoses associated with cannabis, hallucinogens, and amphetamines have a substantial risk of transition to schizophrenia and should be a focus for assertive psychiatric intervention.

The prognostic role of catatonia, hallucinations, and symptoms of schizophrenia in acute and transient psychosis

OBJECTIVES

To examine the prospective temporal stability of acute and transient psychotic disorders (ATPDs) and analyze whether there are clinical, psychopathological, or sociodemographic characteristics that predict ATPD diagnostic stability.

METHOD

We conducted a prospective, 2-year, observational study of patients presenting a first-episode ATPD. A multivariate logistic regression model was developed to identify independent variables associated with ATPD diagnostic stability. Well-established predictive factors of diagnostic stability, as well as all the psychopathological features included in the ICD-10 Diagnostic Criteria for Research (DCR) descriptions of ATPD, were analyzed.

RESULTS

Sixty-eight patients with a first episode of ATPD completed the study with a diagnostic stability rate as high as 55.9% (n = 38) at the end of the follow-up period. Multivariate analysis revealed that diagnostic stability was independently significantly associated with the baseline presence of motility disturbances (OR = 6.86, 95% CI = 1.10-42.62; P = 0.039), the absence of hallucinations (OR = 5.75, 95% CI = 1.51-21.98; P = 0.010), and the absence of schizophrenic features (OR = 7.13, 95% CI = 1.38-36.90; P = 0.019).

CONCLUSION

A symptom checklist assessing these psychopathological features would enable early identification of those subjects whose initial ATPD diagnosis will remain stable over time.

Acute and Transient Psychotic Disorders: Newer Understanding

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

We review the ongoing research in the area of acute and transient psychotic disorders (ATPDs) with regard to their nosology, epidemiology, clinical description, genetics, and neurobiology, examining evidence for distinctiveness or otherwise of ATPDs. We further highlight the lacuna in research in ATPDs.

RECENT FINDINGS

Studies on ATPDs as defined in the ICD 10 have been reported from different parts of the world, more so from the developing countries. There is consistent evidence that there exist a group of ATPDs that occur more commonly among females, are often precipitated by stressful life events or exposure to physiological stresses like fever, child birth, are associated with well-adjusted premorbid personality, and show complete recovery in a short period. Although in some cases of ATPDs, there is symptomatic overlap with schizophrenic symptoms in the acute phase, they follow a completely different course and outcome, exhibit genetic distinctiveness, and do not share genetic relationship with schizophrenias or bipolar affective disorder (BPAD). Comparative studies on neurophysiology and neuroimaging in ATPDs and schizophrenias have demonstrated evidence of hyper arousal and hyper metabolism in ATPDs vs hypo arousal and hypo metabolism as noted in the P300 response and on FDG PET studies, respectively. Immune markers such as IL-6, TNF-alpha, and TGF-beta show higher levels in ATPDs as compared to healthy controls. Findings on the neurobiological mechanisms underlying ATPDs, so far, point towards significant differences from those in schizophrenia or BPAD. Although the studies are few and far between, nevertheless, these point towards the possibility of ATPDs as a distinct entity and underscore the need for pursuing alternate hypothesis such as neuro inflammatory or metabolic. Research on ATPDs is limited due to many reasons including lack of harmony between the ICD and DSM diagnostic systems and clinician biases. Available research data supports the validity of ATPDs as a distinct clinical entity. There is also evidence that ATPDs are different from schizophrenias or BPAD on genetic, neuroimaging, neurophysiological, and immunological markers and require further studies.

Acute Polymorphic Psychotic Disorder: Concepts, Empirical Findings, and Challenges for ICD-11

The ICD-11 International Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems will move toward a narrower concept of "acute and transient psychotic disorders" (ATPD) characterized by the remnant "polymorphic psychotic disorder" (APPD) of the current ICD-10 category, also including schizophrenic and predominantly delusional subtypes. To assess the validity of APPD, relevant articles published between January 1993 and September 2017 were found through searches in PubMed and Web of Science. APPD is a rare mental disorder and affects significantly more women than men in early-middle adulthood. Its diagnostic reliability is relatively low, and its consistency reaches just 53.8% on average over 8.8 years, but is significantly greater than either of ATPD subtypes, which are more likely to progress to schizophrenia and related disorders. Although APPD has distinctive features and higher predictive power, its rarity and the fleeting and polymorphic nature of its symptoms could reduce its usefulness in clinical practice and discourage research.

Acute and transient psychoses: clinical and nosological issues

This article examines the clinical, epidemiological and nosological aspects of short-lived psychotic disorders as currently classified under ‘acute and transient psychotic disorders' in ICD-10 and ‘brief psychotic disorder’ in DSM-5. After describing earlier diagnostic concepts such as bouffée délirante, cycloid psychosis, reactive psychosis and schizophreniform psychosis, we present an overview of the literature and discuss implications for classification, diagnosis and treatment of these conditions, pointing out differences from longer-lasting psychotic disorders.

Remission and recovery from first-episode psychosis in adults: systematic review and meta-analysis of long-term outcome studies

BackgroundRemission and recovery rates for people with first-episode psychosis (FEP) remain uncertain.AimsTo assess pooled prevalence rates of remission and recovery in FEP and to investigate potential moderators.MethodWe conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to assess pooled prevalence rates of remission and recovery in FEP in longitudinal studies with more than 1 year of follow-up data, and conducted meta-regression analyses to investigate potential moderators.ResultsSeventy-nine studies were included representing 19072 patients with FEP. The pooled rate of remission among 12301 individuals with FEP was 58% (60 studies, mean follow-up 5.5 years). Higher remission rates were moderated by studies from more recent years. The pooled prevalence of recovery among 9642 individuals with FEP was 38% (35 studies, mean follow-up 7.2 years). Recovery rates were higher in North America than in other regions.ConclusionsRemission and recovery rates in FEP may be more favourable than previously thought. We observed stability of recovery rates after the first 2 years, suggesting that a progressive deteriorating course of illness is not typical. Although remission rates have improved over time recovery rates have not, raising questions about the effectiveness of services in achieving improved recovery.

Improvement of cycloid psychosis following electroconvulsive therapy

BACKGROUND

The treatment of choice for cycloid psychosis has traditionally been electroconvulsive therapy (ECT), but there is a lack of studies on its effectiveness.

AIMS

The primary aim of this register study was to determine the rates of remission and response after ECT for cycloid psychosis. The secondary aim was to examine possible predictors of outcome.

METHODS

Data were obtained from the National Quality Register for ECT in Sweden. The study population was patients (n = 42) who received ECT for acute polymorphic psychotic disorder without symptoms of schizophrenia or for cycloid psychosis between 2011-2015 in 13 hospitals. Remission and response rates were calculated using Clinical Global Impression-Severity (CGI-S) and -Improvement scores, respectively. Variables with possible predictive value were tested using Chi-square and Fisher's exact test.

RESULTS

The response rate was 90.5%. The remission rate was 45.2%. Of 42 patients, 40 improved their CGI-S score after ECT (p < 0.001). The mean number of ECT treatments was 2.5 for non-responders and 7.0 for responders (p = 0.010). The mean number of ECT treatments did not differ significantly between remitters and non-remitters (7.2 vs 6.1, p = 0.31). None of the other investigated potential predictors was statistically significantly associated with outcome.

CONCLUSIONS

ECT is an effective treatment for cycloid psychosis. Future studies need to compare the outcome of ECT to that of other treatment strategies.

CLINICAL IMPLICATIONS

The high response rate with ECT indicates that cycloid psychosis is a clinically useful diagnosis.

Diagnostic validity of ICD-10 acute and transient psychotic disorders and DSM-5 brief psychotic disorder

BACKGROUND

Short-lived psychotic disorders are currently classified under "acute and transient psychotic disorders" (ATPDs) in ICD-10, and "brief psychotic disorder" (BPD) in DSM-5. This study's aim is to review the literature and address the validity of ATPDs and BPD.

METHOD

Papers published between January 1993 and December 2016 were identified through searches in Web of Science. Reference lists in the located papers provided further sources.

RESULTS

A total of 295 articles were found and 100 were included in the review. There were only a few studies about the epidemiology, vulnerability factors, neurobiological correlates and treatment of these disorders, particularly little interest seems to exist in BPD. The available evidence suggests that short-lived psychotic disorders are rare conditions and more often affect women in early to middle adulthood. They also are neither associated with premorbid dysfunctions nor characteristic family predisposition, while there seems to be greater evidence of environmental factors particularly in developing countries and migrant populations. Follow-up studies report a favourable clinical and functional outcome, but case identification has proved difficult owing to high rates of transition mainly either to schizophrenia and related disorders or, to a lesser extent, affective disorders over the short- and longer-terms.

CONCLUSIONS

Although the lack of neurobiological findings and little predictive power argue against the validity of the above diagnostic categories, it is important that they are kept apart from longer-lasting psychotic disorders both for clinical practice and research. Close overlap between ATPDs and BPD could enhance the understanding of these conditions.

Outcome of first-episode acute and transient psychotic disorder in Hong Kong Chinese: a 20-year retrospective follow-up study

BACKGROUND

'Acute and transient psychotic disorder' (ATPD) is a category in ICD-10 marked by psychosis with acute onset and early remission. It remains relatively under-researched, despite controversies over its nosological status in the current classification system.

AIMS

(1) To assess the changes in diagnosis over time in patients initially diagnosed as ATPD. (2) To identify factors predicting changes in diagnosis, and compare the long-term outcomes of various patterns of diagnostic shift. (3) To make recommendations on the classification and treatment of ATPD based on the findings of the study.

METHODS

This was a retrospective longitudinal study based on review of medical records of patients first admitted to a regional hospital in Hong Kong for ATPD during the period from 1990-2000.

RESULTS

Of the 87 subjects initially diagnosed as ATPD, 64.4% had their diagnoses revised over an average of 20 years, mostly to bipolar disorder and schizophrenia. Among those with diagnosis of ATPD unchanged, 54.8% had one single episode, while the remaining 45.2% had recurrence. Subjects with diagnostic shift had significantly younger age of onset, more first-degree relatives with a history of mental illness, and more subsequent psychiatric admissions.

CONCLUSIONS

ATPD is likely a composite category consisting of clinically distinct outcome groups, for which further research is warranted to identify diagnostic features that distinguish them at initial presentation and revise the current nosological status of ATPD. Long-term follow-up, judicial use of antipsychotics, and education on prognosis are of paramount importance in managing patients diagnosed with ATPD.

Diagnostic Stability of ICD/DSM First Episode Psychosis Diagnoses: Meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Validity of current International Classification of Disease/Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (ICD/DSM) first episode psychosis diagnoses is essential in clinical practice, research, training and public health.

METHOD

We provide a meta-analytical estimate of prospective diagnostic stability and instability in ICD-10 or DSM-IV first episode diagnoses of functional psychoses. Independent extraction by multiple observers. Random effect meta-analysis conducted with the "metaprop," "metaninf," "metafunnel," "metabias," and "metareg" packages of STATA13.1. Moderators were tested with meta-regression analyses. Heterogeneity was assessed with the I ² index. Sensitivity analyses tested robustness of results. Publication biases were assessed with funnel plots and Egger's test.

FINDINGS

42 studies and 45 samples were included, for a total of 14 484 first episode patients and an average follow-up of 4.5 years. Prospective diagnostic stability ranked: schizophrenia 0.90 (95% CI 0.85-0.95), affective spectrum psychoses 0.84 (95% CI 0.79-0.89), schizoaffective disorder 0.72 (95% CI 0.61-0.73), substance-induced psychotic disorder 0.66 (95% CI 0.51-0.81), delusional disorder 0.59 (95% CI 0.47-0.71), acute and transient psychotic disorder/brief psychotic disorder 0.56 (95% CI 0.62-0.60), psychosis not otherwise specified 0.36 (95% CI 0.27-0.45, schizophreniform disorder 0.29 (95% CI 0.22-0.38). Diagnostic stability within schizophrenia spectrum psychoses was 0.93 (95% CI 0.89-0.97); changes to affective spectrum psychoses were 0.05 (95% CI 0.01-0.08). About 0.10 (95% CI 0.05-0.15) of affective spectrum psychoses changed to schizophrenia spectrum psychosis. Across the other psychotic diagnoses there was high diagnostic instability, mostly to schizophrenia.

INTERPRETATION

There is meta-analytical evidence for high prospective diagnostic stability in schizophrenia spectrum and affective spectrum psychoses, with no significant ICD/DSM differences. These results may inform the development of new treatment guidelines for early psychosis and impact drug licensing from regulatory agencies.

Short-term course and outcome of acute and transient psychotic disorders: Differences from other types of psychosis with acute onset

BACKGROUND

The category of 'acute and transient psychotic disorders' (ATPDs) appeared in the ICD-10 Classification of Mental and Behavioural Disorders (ICD-10), but its distinctive features remain uncertain.

AIM

To examine the course and outcome of ATPDs, pointing out differences from other types of psychosis.

METHODS

A one-year follow-up investigation of patients enrolled at the former World Health Organization (WHO) Centre for Research and Training in Mental Health in Aarhus (Denmark) for the WHO collaborative study on acute psychoses.

RESULTS

Of 91 patients aged 15-60 years presenting with acute psychosis, 47 (51.6%) were diagnosed with ATPD, and it occurred more commonly in females; yet, the other acute psychoses featured mainly mood disorders and affected equally both genders. After 1 year, the ATPD diagnosis did not change in 28 cases (59.6%); the remaining developed either affective psychoses (27.7%), or schizophrenia and schizoaffective disorder (12.8%). Nearly, all patients with unchanged diagnosis of ATPD enjoyed full recovery, while those with other types of acute psychosis had significantly higher rates of recurrence or incomplete remission. Duration of illness within 4 weeks and stressful events in the 3 months before symptom onset predicted 1-year favourable clinical outcome for acute psychoses.

CONCLUSION

Although ATPDs fared better over the short-term than other acute psychoses, their diagnostic stability is relatively low.

Diagnostic change 10 years after a first episode of psychosis

BACKGROUND

A lack of an aetiologically based nosology classification has contributed to instability in psychiatric diagnoses over time. This study aimed to examine the diagnostic stability of psychosis diagnoses using data from an incidence sample of psychosis cases, followed up after 10 years and to examine those baseline variables which were associated with diagnostic change.

METHOD

Data were examined from the ÆSOP and ÆSOP-10 studies, an incidence and follow-up study, respectively, of a population-based cohort of first-episode psychosis cases from two sites. Diagnosis was assigned using ICD-10 and DSM-IV-TR. Diagnostic change was examined using prospective and retrospective consistency. Baseline variables associated with change were examined using logistic regression and likelihood ratio tests.

RESULTS

Slightly more (59.6%) cases had the same baseline and lifetime ICD-10 diagnosis compared with DSM-IV-TR (55.3%), but prospective and retrospective consistency was similar. Schizophrenia, psychotic bipolar disorder and drug-induced psychosis were more prospectively consistent than other diagnoses. A substantial number of cases with other diagnoses at baseline (ICD-10, n = 61; DSM-IV-TR, n = 76) were classified as having schizophrenia at 10 years. Many variables were associated with change to schizophrenia but few with overall change in diagnosis.

CONCLUSIONS

Diagnoses other than schizophrenia should to be regarded as potentially provisional.

Diagnostic Stability of Acute and Transient Psychotic Disorders in Developing Country Settings: An Overview

Acute and transient psychotic disorders (ATPD), introduced in the International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10) diagnostic system in 1992, are not receiving much attention in developing countries. Therefore, the main objective of this article is to review the literature related to the diagnostic stability of ATPD in developing countries. A PubMed search was conducted to review the studies concerned with this issue in the context of developing countries, as diagnostic stability is more of a direct test of validity of psychiatric diagnoses. Four publications were found. According to the literature search, the stability percentage of the ICD-10 ATPD diagnosis is 63-100%. The diagnostic shift is more commonly either towards bipolar disorder or schizophrenia, if any. Shorter duration of illness (<1 month) and abrupt onset (<48 hours) predict a stable diagnosis of ATPD. Based on available evidence, the diagnosis of ATPD appears to be relatively stable in developing countries. However, it is difficult to make a definitive conclusion, as there is a substantial lack of literature in developing country settings.

A prospective follow-up study of first-episode acute transient psychotic disorder in Latvia

BACKGROUND

Acute and transient psychotic disorder (ATPD) has been described as an acute psychosis with brief onset and polymorphous symptomatology (WHO, 1993). The study of ATPD is growing increasingly relevant as scientists start an active discussion of the possibility of changing the ATPD classification in the next International Classification of Diseases (ICD-11). The aims of this study were to describe the clinical features of the index episode of ATPD in patients in Latvia, to analyse the stability and longitudinal changes of the diagnosis, to explore potential correlations between the sociodemographic and disease characteristics and to describe stressful life events before the first ATPD episode.

METHODS

A prospective follow-up study of all first-time admitted patients from the Riga Centre of Psychiatry and Addiction Disorders who fulfilled the ICD-10 criteria for ATPD (WHO, 1993) during the 15-month period from 9 January 2010 to 30 March 2011 and followed up until 31 October 2012. Stressful life events, demographics and clinical features during the index episode were assessed.

RESULTS

One hundred two patients were admitted with first-episode ATPD. The majority were females (60.7%). Over an average 26.5-month follow-up period, 59.8% of the patients were not readmitted. The overall stability rate of ATPD diagnosis in our sample was 67.4% (p = 0.0001). In the subgroup of patients who were readmitted, 70.7% had their diagnosis converted to schizophrenia in subsequent visits. Stressful life events before the first episode were found in 49.0% of first-episode ATPD patients. Thought disorder was found to be the strongest statistically significant predictor of ATPD diagnosis conversation to schizophrenia (odds ratio 4.3), with high Wald's criterion (9.435) in binary logistic regression.

CONCLUSIONS

ATPD is prevalent in Latvia, with rather high overall stability rate. Combining these data from first-episode ATPD patients in Latvia with data from other countries may help predict the development of the disease and provide a basis for potential changes to ICD-11.

First-episode acute and transient psychotic disorder in Latvia: a 6-year follow-up study

BACKGROUND

Acute and transient psychotic disorder (ATPD; F23, ICD-10) is an acute, short-lived psychosis, which has variable prevalence worldwide and has not been extensively studied.

AIMS

To explore the first episode of ATPD in patients in Latvia by describing the clinical features, analyzing the longitudinal changes of diagnosis and associated socio-demographic characteristics.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

Retrospective chart review of all first-time hospitalized patients fulfilling the ICD-10 criteria for ATPD treated at the Riga Centre of Psychiatry and Addiction Disorders, Latvia, during a 3-year period. Patients were followed-up and assessed using standardized instruments.

RESULTS

During a 3-year period, 294 patients were first-time hospitalized with a ATPD diagnosis; 54% were women. The average age at first psychotic episode was 35.7 ± 12.3 years for women, and 30.0 ± 10.8 years for men (P < 0.0001). Over an average of 5.6 years follow-up period, 51% of patients were not re-hospitalized. Later diagnosis was changed to schizophrenia in 73% of the re-hospitalized patients, mostly within the first 2 years of illness. The overall stability rate of ATPD diagnosis reached 58%. Typical polymorphic symptomatology, abrupt onset (i.e. within 48 h), less frequent anxiety, but more frequent hallucinations were observed in ATPD patients that later developed schizophrenia (P < 0.05). Stressful life events in the 6 months prior to the first episode were found in 44% of patients.

CONCLUSIONS

Combining these assessments from first-episode ATPD patients in Latvia, with data from other countries may help to predict the development of disease and provide the possible basis for potential changes to ICD-11.

Epidemiology, course and outcome of acute polymorphic psychotic disorder: implications for ICD-11

BACKGROUND

The proposed revision of the ICD-10 category of 'acute and transient psychotic disorders' (ATPDs), subsuming polymorphic, schizophrenic or predominantly delusional syndromes, would restrict their classification to acute polymorphic psychotic disorder, reminiscent of the clinical concepts of bouffée délirante and cycloid psychosis.

SAMPLING AND METHODS

We selected all subjects aged 15-64 years (n = 5,426) who were listed in the Danish Psychiatric Central Register with a first-admission diagnosis of ATPDs in 1995-2008 and estimated incidence rates, course and outcome up to 2010.

RESULTS

Although about half of ATPD patients tended to experience transition to another category over a mean follow-up period of 9.3 years, acute polymorphic psychotic disorder fared better in terms of cases with a single episode of psychosis and temporal stability than the subtypes featuring schizophrenic or predominantly delusional symptoms. Acute polymorphic psychotic disorder was more common in females, while cases with acute schizophrenic features predominated in younger males and evolved more often into schizophrenia and related disorders.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings suggest that acute polymorphic psychotic disorder exhibits distinctive features and challenge the current approach to the classification of ATPDs.

Variations in incidence and age of onset of acute and transient psychotic disorders

PURPOSE

To determine incidence and age of onset of the ICD-10 category of 'acute and transient psychotic disorders' (ATPDs) characterised by subtypes with polymorphic, schizophrenic and predominantly delusional symptoms, pointing out differences from schizophrenia (SZ) and bipolar affective disorder (BD).

METHODS

We identified all subjects aged 15-64 years who were listed for the first time in the Danish Psychiatric Register with a diagnosis of ATPDs (n = 3,350), SZ (n = 4,576) and BD (n = 3,200) in 1995-2008. Incidence rates and rate ratios (IRR; 95 % confidence interval) by gender and age were calculated.

RESULTS

The incidence of ATPDs was 6.7 per 100,000 person-years, similarly high for both genders (IRR 1.0; 0.9-1.1). Among the ATPD subtypes, polymorphic psychotic disorder was more common in females (IRR 1.4; 1.2-1.6) as opposed to those featuring schizophrenic symptoms, which tended to occur in younger males (IRR 1.4; 1.2-1.7). No significant gender difference was found for acute predominantly delusional disorder (IRR 1.0; 0.9-1.2), which had a later onset than any ATPD subtypes. SZ had an incidence twice as high in males (IRR 2.0; 1.9-2.2), and an earlier age of onset than ATPDs. A different pattern was observed for BD in terms of a slightly greater incidence in females (IRR 1.1; 1.0-1.1), and a later age of onset than both ATPDs and SZ.

CONCLUSION

These findings are likely to reflect the heterogeneity of the clinical features encompassed by ATPDs, and contribute to building a case for their revision in ICD-11.

Family psychiatric morbidity of acute and transient psychotic disorders and their relationship to schizophrenia and bipolar disorder

BACKGROUND

Although transient psychotic disorders are currently classified as a category separate from schizophrenia (SZ) and affective disorders, their distinctive features remain uncertain. This study examines the family psychiatric morbidity of the ICD-10 category of 'acute and transient psychotic disorders' (ATPDs), pointing out differences from SZ and bipolar disorder (BD).

METHOD

From a cohort of 2.5 million persons, we identified all patients enrolled in the Danish Psychiatric Register who were ever admitted with ATPDs (n=2537), SZ (n = 10639) and BD disorder (n=5292) between 1996 and 2008. The relative risk (RR) of ATPDs, SZ and BD associated with psychiatric morbidity in first-degree relatives (FDRs) was calculated as the incidence rate ratio using Poisson regression.

RESULTS

The RR of ATPDs [1.93, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.76-2.11] was higher if patients with ATPDs had at least one FDR admitted with any mental disorder than patients without family psychiatric antecedents. An additional risk arose if they had FDRs admitted not only with ATPDs (RR 1.60, 95% CI 1.33-1.92) but also with SZ (RR 2.06, 95% CI 1.70-2.50) and/or BD (RR 1.55, 95% CI 1.23-1.96). Despite some overlap, the risk of SZ (RR 2.80, 95% CI 2.58-3.04) and BD (RR 3.68, 95% CI 3.29-4.12) was markedly higher if patients with SZ and BD had FDRs admitted with the same condition.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings suggest that family psychiatric predisposition has a relatively modest impact on ATPDs and argue against a sharp differentiation of ATPDs from SZ and BD.

Excess mortality of acute and transient psychotic disorders: comparison with bipolar affective disorder and schizophrenia

OBJECTIVE

To investigate mortality and causes of death of short-lived psychotic disorders, by carrying out a comparison with bipolar disorder and schizophrenia.

METHOD

Record linkage study to the official register of causes of death of all cases aged 15-64 years who were listed for the first time in the Danish Psychiatric Register between 1995 and 2008 with an ICD-10 diagnosis of 'acute and transient psychotic disorders' (ATPDs; n = 4157), bipolar disorder (n = 3200) and schizophrenia (n = 4576).

RESULTS

A total of 232 patients (5.6%) with ATPDs, 172 (5.4%) with bipolar disorder and 233 (5.1%) with schizophrenia had died over a mean follow-up period of 6.6 years. The standardized mortality ratio for all causes, natural causes and unnatural causes was significantly high for the three conditions. Mortality of ATPDs was greater in men, with about two-thirds of all deaths resulting from natural causes mainly cardiovascular, digestive, neoplastic and respiratory diseases. Suicide was the major cause of premature death in patients with ATPDs.

CONCLUSION

These findings suggest that ATPDs are associated with an increased mortality from both natural causes and suicide.

Long-term stability of acute and transient psychotic disorders

OBJECTIVE

To examine the temporal stability of the category 'acute and transient psychotic disorders' (ATPDs), ICD-10 Classification of Mental and Behavioural Disorders, including subtypes characterised by polymorphic, schizophrenic and predominantly delusional features.

METHOD

We checked the readmission patterns of all patients aged 15-64 years (n = 5426), whether admitted to hospital or treated as outpatients, who were enrolled for the first time in the Danish Psychiatric Register with a diagnosis of ATPDs between 1995 and 2008.

RESULTS

An increasing number of cases with ATPDs changed diagnosis in subsequent admissions after 1, 2 and 5 years, mainly either to schizophrenia and related disorders or affective disorders. In their last admission, on average after 7.3 years, there were 2429 patients listed with ATPDs, accounting for an overall stability of 44.8%. Females were less likely than males to develop another diagnosis. Among the ATPD subtypes, polymorphic psychotic disorder without schizophrenic symptoms had a higher stability than those featuring schizophrenic or predominantly delusional features.

CONCLUSIONS

The low diagnostic stability of ATPDs reflects the lack of clearly defining features and argues against their validity as a distinct category.

Acute and transient psychotic disorders: an overview of studies in Asia

Acute and transient psychotic disorders (ATPD), introduced in the International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10) diagnostic system, have not received much attention in Asia. As the World Health Organization (WHO) is in the process of revising the ICD-10 and ICD-11 is expected to be published in the near future, it seems appropriate to review the status of ATPD in this region. A PubMed search using appropriate keywords was conducted to identify literature describing samples from Asian countries with the diagnosis of ATPD for evidence of ATPD as a distinct diagnostic group. A total of 103 papers were found, but only nine publications were specifically related to ATPD and the ICD-10 criteria. The total number of patients receiving a diagnosis of ATPD in these studies was 390. Immigrants appear prone to ATPD, especially foreign domestic workers. When compared to schizophrenia, ATPD as a group had a different family history, course and outcome. However, ATPD was diagnostically unstable over time. A range of 35.5% to 73.3% in Asian patients with baseline ATPD retained their diagnoses over 3-12 years. Most individuals with polymorphic subtypes of ATPD in India and Hong Kong were rediagnosed with bipolar disorder after 3-5 years. In Japan, 31.2% of polymorphic cases were diagnosed as schizophrenia after 12 years of follow-up. This review supports the ICD-10 concept of separating ATPD into its own group; however, polymorphic subtypes may need revision in ICD-11. Before firm suggestions are submitted to the WHO, further research and data review from other regions is necessary.