Laboratory markers predicting severity of acute pancreatitis

Radiomics models of contrast-enhanced computed tomography for predicting the activity and prognosis of acute pancreatitis

BACKGROUND

The modified pancreatitis activity scoring system (mPASS) was proposed to assess the activity of acute pancreatitis (AP) while it doesn't include indicators that directly reflect pathophysiology processes and imaging characteristics.

OBJECTIVES

To determine the threshold of admission mPASS and investigate radiomics and laboratory parameters to construct a model to predict the activity of AP.

METHODS

AP inpatients at institution 1 were randomly divided into training and validation groups based on a 5:5 ratio. AP inpatients at Institution 2 were served as test group. The cutoff value of admission mPASS scores in predicting severe AP was selected to divide patients into high and low level of disease activity group. LASSO was used in screening features. Multivariable logistic regression was used to develop radiomics model. Meaningful laboratory parameters were used to construct combined model.

RESULTS

There were 234 (48 years ± 10, 155 men) and 101 (48 years ± 11, 69 men) patients in two institutions. The threshold of admission mPASS score was 112.5 in severe AP prediction. The AUC of the radiomics model was 0.79, 0.72, and 0.76 and that of the combined model incorporating rad-score and white blood cell were 0.84, 0.77, and 0.80 in three groups for activity prediction. The AUC of the combined model in predicting disease without remission was 0.74.

CONCLUSIONS

The threshold of admission mPASS was 112.5 in predicting severe AP. The model based on CECT radiomics has the ability to predict AP activity. Its ability to predict disease without remission is comparable to mPASS.

CRITICAL RELEVANCE STATEMENT

This work is the first attempt to assess the activity of acute pancreatitis using contrast-enhanced CT radiomics and laboratory parameters. The model provides a new method to predict the activity and prognosis of AP, which could contribute to further management.

KEY POINTS

Radiomics features and laboratory parameters are associated with the activity of acute pancreatitis. The combined model provides a new method to predict the activity and prognosis of AP. The ability of the combined model is comparable to the modified Pancreatitis Activity Scoring System.

Value of soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase 1 for predicting acute pancreatitis severity: a systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this study was to explore the relationship between serum soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase 1 and the severity of acute pancreatitis and its diagnostic utility.

METHODS

This study was carried out by searching Chinese and English literature from the establishment of the database to July 9, 2023, systematically, and assessing the quality and heterogeneity of the articles included.

RESULTS

Thirteen studies with a total of 986 patients were included. Patients with severe acute pancreatitis showed higher levels of soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase 1 compared with mild acute pancreatitis [weighted mean difference=76.64 pg/mL, 95% confidence interval (95%CI 50.39-102.89, p<0.001)]. Soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase 1 predicted pooled sensitivity, specificity, and area under the curve were 79%, 74%, and 0.85 for severe acute pancreatitis, with some heterogeneity (I2>50% or p<0.05). In the subgroup analysis, cutoff >150 pg/mL was found to be a heterogeneous factor.

CONCLUSION

Soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase 1 is a reliable tool for identifying acute pancreatitis severity, but only as a screening tool.

The role of Interleukin-22 in severe acute pancreatitis

Severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) begins with premature activation of enzymes, promoted by the immune system, triggering a potential systemic inflammatory response that leads to organ failure with increased mortality and a bleak prognosis. Interleukin-22 (IL-22) is a cytokine that may have a significant role in SAP. IL-22, a member of the IL-10 cytokine family, has garnered growing interest owing to its potential tissue-protective properties. Recently, emerging research has revealed its specific effects on pancreatic diseases, particularly SAP. This paper provides a review of the latest knowledge on the role of IL-22 and its viability as a therapeutic target in SAP.

Vitamin B6 ameliorates acute pancreatitis by suppressing the caspase3 signaling pathway

BACKGROUND

Acute pancreatitis (AP) is a prevalent exocrine inflammatory disorder of the pancreas characterized by pancreatic inflammation and injury to acinar cells. Vitamin B6 (VB6) is a vital nutrient that plays a significant role in preserving human health and has anti-inflammatory and anti-apoptotic effects.

METHODS

This study aimed to explore the potential pancreatic protective effects of VB6 in mitigating pancreatic inflammation and apoptosis induced by taurocholate sodium (TLCS) in an AP model and to assess the underlying mechanism of action. AP was induced in Sprague‒Dawley (SD) rats through TLCS administration and lipopolysaccharide (LPS)-treated AR42J cells, followed by treatment with VB6.

RESULTS

Various parameters associated with AP were assessed in both plasma and pancreatic tissues. VB6 has been shown to ameliorate the severity of AP through various mechanisms. It effectively reduces the levels of serum amylase, lipase, and inflammatory factors, thereby mitigating histological injury to the pancreas. Moreover, VB6 inhibited pancreatic apoptosis by downregulating bax expression and up-regulating Bcl2 expression in TLCS-treated rats. Additionally, VB6 suppressed the expression of caspase3. The anti-inflammatory and anti-apoptotic effects of VB6 observed in LPS-treated AR42J cells are consistent with those observed in a rat model of AP.

CONCLUSIONS

These results suggest that VB6 exerts anti-inflammatory and anti-apoptotic effects through inhibition of the caspase3 signaling pathway and has a protective effect against AP.

A risk model for parenteral nutrition-associated liver disease in patients with severe acute pancreatitis

BACKGROUND AND STUDY AIMS

The aim of this study is to explore the risk factors for parenteral nutrition-associated liver disease (PNALD) in patients with severe acute pancreatitis by establishing a verification risk model.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

A total of 176 patients with severe acute pancreatitis from January 2019 to August 2021, were assigned into the observation group (n = 88) and control group (n = 88) based on the diagnostic results of PNALD, randomly. Their clinical data were recorded. Alanine aminotransferase (ALT), aspartate aminotransferase (AST), total bilirubin (TBIL) and alkaline phosphatase (ALP), etc., were detected. The logistic model and desicion tree model were used to analyze the risk factors.

RESULTS

Patients in the observation group had higher levels of ALT, AST, TBIL, and lower level of ALP than those of control group (P < 0.05). Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that alcohol intake history, ALT ≥69.65 U/L, AST ≥71.27 U/L, TBIL ≥26.27 μmol/L and ALP ≤45.11 U/L were risk factors for PNALD. The levels of ALT and AST in observation group were two times as high as those in the control group, which conformed to the Danan's criteria and accorded with the results of univariate analysis.

CONCLUSION

The regression model showed high consistency with the decision tree model in the prediction of risk factors. Alcohol intake history, ALT ≥69.65 U/L, AST ≥71.27 U/L, TBIL ≥26.27 μmol/L and ALP ≤45.11 U/L are risk factors for PNALD.

Ferritin and Ferritin-to-Hemoglobin Ratio as Promising Prognostic Biomarkers of Severity in Acute Pancreatitis-A Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Acute pancreatitis is an inflammation of the pancreas with variable outcomes depending on its severity. Multiple systems of prediction have been proposed, each with variable specificity and sensitivity and with uneven clinical use. Ferritin is a versatile protein associated with various acute and chronic conditions.

AIMS

In our study, we aimed to assess the association of serum ferritin and the ferritin-to-hemoglobin ratio (FHR) with the severity of acute pancreatitis.

METHODS

A retrospective study was conducted in our hospital from January 2020 to September 2022 and included 116 patients with acute pancreatitis (graded according to the revised Atlanta classification). Serum ferritin and FHR were determined next to established laboratory parameters in the first 24 h following admission (hematological parameters, amylase, lipase, C-reactive protein, D-dimers, lactate dehydrogenase). We performed a receiver operating characteristic curve analysis for potential predictors. Also, we made correlations and conducted univariate and multivariate analyses for all potential severity biomarkers.

RESULTS

The median values of serum ferritin and FHR differed significantly between patients with severe acute pancreatitis and mild cases (serum ferritin: 352.40 vs. 197.35 ng/mL, p = 0.011; FHR: 23.73 vs. 13.74, p = 0.002) and between patients with organ failure and those without organ failure (serum ferritin: 613.45 vs. 279.65 ng/mL, p = 0.000; FHR: 48.12 vs. 18.64, p = 0.000). The medians of the serum ferritin and FHR levels were significantly higher in non-survivors compared with survivors (serum ferritin: 717.71 vs. 305.67 ng/mL, p = 0.013; FHR: 52.73 vs. 19.58, p = 0.016). Serum ferritin and FHR were good predictors for organ failure and mortality, next to D-dimers and procalcitonin (AUC > 0.753 for organ failure and AUC > 0.794 for mortality). In univariate regression analysis, serum ferritin and FHR were independent variables for moderate-severe forms of acute pancreatitis. Still, adjusting the multivariate analysis, only FHR remained a significant predictor. The cut-offs for serum ferritin and FHR for predicting organ failure were 437.81 ng/mL (sensitivity, 71%; specificity, 75%) and 45.63 (sensitivity, 61%; specificity, 88%), and those for mortality during hospitalization were 516 ng/mL (sensitivity, 83%; specificity, 74%) and 51.58 (sensitivity, 66%; specificity, 86%).

CONCLUSIONS

Serum ferritin and the ferritin-to-hemoglobin ratio stood out in this study as valuable and accessible predictors of disease severity in the early assessment of acute pancreatitis, next to established severity serum markers (CRP, fibrinogen, D-dimers).

Bone Marrow Mesenchymal Stem Cells Alleviate Acute Severe Pancreatitis and Promote Lung Repair via Inhibiting NLRP3 Inflammasome in Rat

BACKGROUND

Acute severe pancreatitis (SAP) is a severe acute abdominal disease, which can lead to pancreatic infection and necrosis as well as distant organ damage. Bone marrow mesenchymal stem cells (BMSCs) can exert anti-inflammatory effect on SAP, while NLRP3 inflammasomes play an important role in the inflammatory response. This study aimed to investigate whether BMSCs exert anti-inflammatory effect on SAP by inhibiting NLRP3 inflammasome.

METHODS

The rat SAP model was established. Serum amylase, lipase and inflammatory factor levels were measured by ELISA, and the level of tissue injury was assessed by HE staining. The expression of NLRP3 inflammasome was detected by PCR, Western Blot and immunohistochemistry. ML385 was used to block Nrf2 pathway, aiming to investigate whether Nrf2 pathway was involved in the therapeutic effect of BMSCs on SAP by regulating NLRP3 inflammasome expression.

RESULTS

In SAP rats, NLRP3 inflammasome was activated, which became more evident over time. After transplantation of BMSCs, the NLRP3 inflammasome expression decreased at both mRNA and protein levels, the serum levels of amylase, lipase and inflammatory factors decreased, and the pathological scores of the pancreas and lung were both improved. After blocking the Nrf2 pathway, the NLRP3 inflammasome expression increased in the injured pancreas and lung, and the inflammation deteriorated, which inhibited the therapeutic effects of BMSCs on SAP.

CONCLUSION

The therapeutic effect of BMSC on SAP is at least partially ascribed to the inhibition of NLRP3 inflammasome, and Nrf2 pathway mediates the therapeutic effect of BMSC on SAP by inhibiting NLRP3 inflammasome.

Predictive value of serum retinol binding protein in severity and complications of acute pancreatitis: a retrospective cohort study

OBJECTIVES

Retinol binding protein (RBP) is associated with an increased risk of insulin resistance, metabolic syndrome, atherosclerosis and hypertension. This study aimed to evaluate serum RBP levels in patients with acute pancreatitis (AP).

METHODS

The study included 1,871 AP patients, including 1,411 with mild AP (MAP), 244 with moderately severe AP (MSAP), and 186 with severe AP (SAP). Retrospective analysis was conducted on RBP concentrations and other clinical data of AP patients.

RESULTS

AP patients were subgrouped by RBP level into low RBP (LRBP), normal RBP (NRBP), and high RBP (HRBP) groups. The LRBP group showed a significantly higher proportion of SAP patients than NRBP and HRBP groups. Additionally, the LRBP group had the highest BISAP and CTSI scores among the three groups; WBC and CRP levels in the NRBP group were significantly lower than those in the LRBP and HRBP groups. RBP was better at predicting acute necrotic collection (ANC) than other local complications, with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.821. RBP was also an independent risk factor for acute lung injury (ALI) and ANC in AP patients. The AUC of RBP for predicting ALI was 0.829, with 30.45 mg/L as the optimal cutoff value, and the sensitivity and specificity were 59.70% and 96.50%, respectively. The AUC of RBP for predicting ANC was 0.821, with 28.35 mg/L as the optimal cutoff value, and the sensitivity and specificity were 61.20% and 95.50%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Serum RBP had predictive value for AP severity, local and systemic complications.

Mitochondrial DNA Copy Number, a Damage-Associated Molecular Pattern Molecule, Can Predict Pancreatic Necrosis and Is Correlated with the Severity of Acute Pancreatitis

BACKGROUND

Mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) is a damage-associated molecular pattern molecule that can trigger an immune-inflammatory response during pancreatic necrosis (PN).

AIM

To evaluate the role of mtDNA in the detection of PN and severe acute pancreatitis (SAP).

METHODS

The present study included 40 AP patients and 30 controls. AP patients were grouped into mild AP (MAP, n = 15), moderately severe AP (MSAP, n = 17), and SAP (n = 8). Also, the SAP + MSAP group, n = 25, was compared to MAP. AP patients were divided into NAP (n = 7) and non-necrotizing AP (n = 33). The mtDNA copy number, IL-6, and STAT3 expression levels were measured using quantitative real-time PCR.

RESULTS

The mtDNA, IL-6, and STAT3 levels were significantly higher in AP patients than in controls and in the SAP + MSAP than in the MAP. However, the SAP had non-significantly higher levels of mtDNA, STAT3, and IL-6 levels than the MSAP and statistically significant mtDNA, STAT3, and IL-6 when compared to the MAP. mtDNA, IL-6, and STAT3 showed significantly higher levels in NAP compared with non-necrotizing AP. mtDNA was positively correlated with STAT3, IL-6, CRP, APACHE, and CT severity index (CTSI) and negatively correlated with albumin. In the receiver operating curve (ROC), mtDNA was the most significant independent predictor of PN and MAP vs. SAP + MSAP. IL-6 and mtDNA + CRP had higher diagnostic abilities for SIRS and high CTSI.

CONCLUSIONS

mtDNA could enhance the prediction of NAP; however, its diagnostic ability of SAP needs further study.

Composition and functional profiles of gut microbiota reflect the treatment stage, severity, and etiology of acute pancreatitis

Acute pancreatitis (AP) is a type of digestive system disease with high mortality. Previous studies have shown that gut microbiota can participate in developing and treating acute pancreatitis by affecting the host's metabolism. In this study, we followed 20 AP patients to generate longitudinal gut microbiota profiles and activity during disease (before treatment, on the third day of treatment, and 1 month after discharge). We analyzed species composition and metabolic pathways' changes across the treatment phase, severity, and etiology. The diversity of the gut microbiome of patients with AP did not show much variation with treatment. In contrast, the metabolic functions of the gut microbiota, such as the essential chemical reactions that produce energy and maintain life, were partially reinstated after treatment. The severe AP (SAP) patients contained less beneficial bacteria (i.e., Bacteroides xylanisolvens, Clostridium lavalense, and Roseburia inulinivorans) and weaker sugar degradation function than mild AP patients before treatment. Moreover, etiology was one of the drivers of gut microbiome composition and explained the 3.54% variation in species' relative abundance. The relative abundance of pathways related to lipid synthesis was higher in the gut of hyperlipidemia AP patients than in biliary AP patients. The composition and functional profiles of the gut microbiota reflect the severity and etiology of AP. Otherwise, we also identified bacterial species associated with SAP, i.e., Oscillibacter sp. 57_20, Parabacteroides johnsonii, Bacteroides stercoris, Methanobrevibacter smithii, Ruminococcus lactaris, Coprococcus comes, and Dorea formicigenerans, which have the potential to identify the SAP at an early stage. IMPORTANCE Acute pancreatitis (AP) is a type of digestive system disease with high mortality. Previous studies have shown that gut microbiota can participate in the development and treatment of acute pancreatitis by affecting the host's metabolism. However, fewer studies acquired metagenomic sequencing data to associate species to functions intuitively and performed longitudinal analysis to explore how gut microbiota influences the development of AP. We followed 20 AP patients to generate longitudinal gut microbiota profiles and activity during disease and studied the differences in intestinal flora under different severities and etiologies. We have two findings. First, the gut microbiota profile has the potential to identify the severity and etiology of AP at an early stage. Second, gut microbiota likely acts synergistically in the development of AP. This study provides a reference for characterizing the driver flora of severe AP to identify the severity of acute pancreatitis at an early stage.

Management of Intra-Abdominal Infections: The Role of Procalcitonin

Patients with intra-abdominal sepsis suffer from significant mortality and morbidity. The main pillars of treatment for intra-abdominal infections are (1) source control and (2) early delivery of antibiotics. Antibiotic therapy should be started as soon as possible. However, the duration of antibiotics remains a matter of debate. Prolonged antibiotic delivery can lead to increased microbial resistance and the development of nosocomial infections. There has been much research on biomarkers and their ability to aid the decision on when to stop antibiotics. Some of these biomarkers include interleukins, C-reactive protein (CRP) and procalcitonin (PCT). PCT's value as a biomarker has been a focus area of research in recent years. Most studies use either a cut-off value of 0.50 ng/mL or an >80% reduction in PCT levels to determine when to stop antibiotics. This paper performs a literature review and provides a synthesized up-to-date global overview on the value of PCT in managing intra-abdominal infections.

Application Value of the Automated Machine Learning Model Based on Modified Computed Tomography Severity Index Combined With Serological Indicators in the Early Prediction of Severe Acute Pancreatitis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Machine learning (ML) algorithms are widely applied in building models of medicine due to their powerful studying and generalizing ability. To assess the value of the Modified Computed Tomography Severity Index (MCTSI) combined with serological indicators for early prediction of severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) by automated ML (AutoML).

PATIENTS AND METHODS

The clinical data, of the patients with acute pancreatitis (AP) hospitalized in Hospital 1 and hospital 2 from January 2017 to December 2021, were retrospectively analyzed. Serological indicators within 24 hours of admission were collected. MCTSI score was completed by noncontrast computed tomography within 24 hours of admission. Data from the hospital 1 were adopted for training, and data from the hospital 2 were adopted for external validation. The diagnosis of AP and SAP was based on the 2012 revised Atlanta classification of AP. Models were built using traditional logistic regression and AutoML analysis with 4 types of algorithms. The performance of models was evaluated by the receiver operating characteristic curve, the calibration curve, and the decision curve analysis based on logistic regression and decision curve analysis, feature importance, SHapley Additive exPlanation Plot, and Local Interpretable Model Agnostic Explanation based on AutoML.

RESULTS

A total of 499 patients were used to develop the models in the training data set. An independent data set of 201 patients was used to test the models. The model developed by the Deep Neural Net (DL) outperformed other models with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (areas under the curve) of 0.907 in the test set. Furthermore, among these AutoML models, the DL and gradient boosting machine models achieved the highest sensitivity values, both exceeding 0.800.

CONCLUSION

The AutoML model based on the MCTSI score combined with serological indicators has good predictive value for SAP in the early stage.

Association between time in range 70-180 mg/dl in early stage and severity with in patients acute pancreatitis

BACKGROUND

It is not well understood whether glucose control in the early stage of acute pancreatitis(AP) is related to outcome. This study aimed to investigate the association between blood glucose time in range (TIR) of 70-180 mg/dL in the first 72 h(h) on admission and the progression of AP.

METHODS

Individuals admitted with AP to the Gastroenterology Department of the Affiliated Changzhou No.2 People's Hospital of Nanjing Medical University between January 2017 and December 2021 were included and retrospectively evaluated. The percentage of TIR between 70 and 180 mg/dL in the first 72 h was calculated. According to the progress of AP at discharge, patients were divided into mild pancreatitis(MAP), and moderately severe acute pancreatitis (MSAP), or severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) groups. We examined the association between TIR or TIR ≥ 70% and AP severity using logistic regression models stratified by a glycosylated hemoglobin (HbA1c) level of 6.5%. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were generated to assess the ability of the TIR to predict MSAP or SAP.

RESULTS

A total of 298 individuals were included, of whom 35 developed MSAP or SAP. Logistic regression analyses indicated that TIR was independently associated with the incidence of more serious AP (odds ratio [OR] = 0.962, 95% CI = 0.941-0.983, p = 0.001). This association remained significant in individuals with HbA1c levels ≤ 6.5% (OR = 0.928, 95% CI = 0.888-0.969, p = 0.001). A TIR ≥ 70% was independently associated with reduced severity only in people with well-antecedent controls (OR = 0.238; 95% CI = 0.071-0.802; p = 0.020). TIR was not powerful enough to predict the severity of AP in both patients with poor antecedent glucose control (AUC = 0.641) or with HbA1c < 6.5% (AUC = 0.668).

CONCLUSIONS

TIR was independently associated with severity in patients with AP, particularly those with good antecedent glucose control.

Decreased HDL-C Levels as a Predictor of Organ Failure in Acute Pancreatitis in the Emergency Department

High-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) is reported as a biomarker of systemic inflammation and multi-organ failure (MOF), which has been rarely investigated in acute pancreatitis (AP), a frequent condition in the emergency department (ED). The objective was to study the predictive capacity of the decrease in HDL-C to the progression of MOF in AP in the ED; analyzing 114 patients with AP for one year in a longitudinal and prospective study, AP severity was obtained by the Atlanta classification, in relation to modified Marshall and Bedside Index for Severity in Acute Pancreatitis (BISAP) scores, and clinical and laboratory parameters in a 48 h hospital stay. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to estimate the validity of the predictor and define optimal cut-off points. It was found that AP was classified as severe in 24.5%, mainly for biliary etiology (78.9%) and female sex (73.6%). As a biomarker, HDL-C decreased from 31.6 to 29.5 mg/dL in a 48 h stay (p < 0.001), correlating negatively with the increase in severity index > 2 and the modified Marshall (p < 0.032) and BISAP (p < 0.009) scores, finding an area under the ROC curve with a predictive capacity of 0.756 (95% CI, 0.614-0.898; p < 0.004) and a cut-off point of 28.5 mg/dL (sensitivity: 79%, specificity: 78%), demonstrating that the decrease in HDL-C levels serves as a useful indicator with a predictive capacity for MOF in mild to severe AP, during a 48 h hospital stay in the ED.

Establishment and Validation of a Nomogram Prediction Model for the Severe Acute Pancreatitis

Background

Severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) can progress to lung and kidney dysfunction, and blood clotting within 48 hours of its onset, and is associated with a high mortality rate. The aim of this study was to establish a reliable diagnostic prediction model for the early stage of severe pancreatitis.

Methods

The clinical data of patients diagnosed with acute pancreatitis from October 2017 to June 2022 at the Shangluo Central Hospital were collected. The risk factors were screened by least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression analysis. A novel nomogram model was then established by multivariable logistic regression analysis.

Results

The data of 436 patients with acute pancreatitis, 45 (10.3%) patients had progressed to SAP. Through univariate and LASSO regression analyses, the neutrophils (P <0.001), albumin (P < 0.001), blood glucose (P < 0.001), serum calcium (P < 0.001), serum creatinine (P < 0.001), blood urea nitrogen (P < 0.001) and procalcitonin (P = 0.005) were identified as independent predictive factors for SAP. The nomogram built on the basis of these factors predicted SAP with sensitivity of 0.733, specificity of 0.9, positive predictive value of 0.458 and negative predictive value of 0.967. Furthermore, the concordance index of the nomogram reached 0.889 (95% CI, 0.837-0.941), and the area under the curve (AUC) in receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) analysis was significantly higher than that of the APACHEII and ABISAP scoring systems. The established model was validated by plotting the clinical decision curve analysis (DCA) and clinical impact curve (CIC).

Conclusion

We established a nomogram to predict the progression of early acute pancreatitis to SAP with high discrimination and accuracy.

Acute peripancreatic fluid collection in acute pancreatitis: Incidence, outcome, and association with inflammatory markers

Background

The hospital outcomes and predictors of acute peripancreatic fluid collection (APFC) have not been well-characterized. In this study, we aimed to investigate the clinical outcomes of APFC in patients with acute pancreatitis (AP) and the role of the systemic immune-inflammation index (SII), systemic inflammation response index (SIRI), and C-reactive protein (CRP) level in predicting the occurrence of APFC.

Methods

In this retrospective study, the complicated group (patients with APFC) and the uncomplicated group (patients without APFC) were compared for their clinical characteristics, hospital outcomes (mortality rate, intensive care unit admission rate, and length of hospital stay), pseudocyst formation, CRP levels, SII, and SIRI on admission and at 48 hours.

Results

Of 132 patients with AP, 51 (38.6%) had APFC and eight (6.1%) had pancreatic pseudocysts. Of 51 patients with APFC, 15.7% had pancreatic pseudocysts. Pseudocyst did not develop in the uncomplicated group. SII value at 48 h [median 859 (541-1740) x 109/L vs. 610 (343-1259) x 109/L, P = 0.01] and CRP level at 48 h [89 (40-237) mg/L vs. 38 (12-122) mg/L, P = 0.01] were higher in the complicated group than in the uncomplicated group. The length of hospital stay was longer in the complicated group, compared with the uncomplicated group [median 8 days (5-15), vs. 4 days (3-7), P < 0.001, respectively]. No significant difference was detected between the two study groups' mortality rates and intensive care unit admission rates.

Conclusions

While 38.6% of the AP patients had APFC, 6.1% of all patients and 15.7% of the patients with APFC had pancreatic pseudocysts. APFC was found to lengthen the hospital stay and to be associated with the SII value and CRP level measured at 48 h.

A novel HCP (heparin-binding protein-C reactive protein-procalcitonin) inflammatory composite model can predict severe acute pancreatitis

Severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) presents with an aggressive clinical presentation and high lethality rate. Early prediction of the severity of acute pancreatitis will help physicians to further precise treatment and improve intervention. This study aims to construct a composite model that can predict SAP using inflammatory markers. 212 patients with acute pancreatitis enrolled from January 2018 to June 2020 were included in this study, basic parameters at admission and 24 h after hospitalization, and laboratory results such as inflammatory markers were collected. Pearson's test was used to analyze the correlation between heparin-binding protein (HBP), procalcitonin (PCT), and C-reactive protein (CRP). Risk factors affecting SAP were analyzed using multivariate logistic regression, inflammatory marker models were constructed, and subject operating curves were used to verify the discrimination of individual as well as inflammatory marker models and to find the optimal cut-off value based on the maximum Youden index. In the SAP group, the plasma levels of HBP, CRP, and PCT were 139.1 ± 74.8 ng/mL, 190.7 ± 106.3 mg/L and 46.3 ± 22.3 ng/mL, and 25.3 ± 16.0 ng/mL, 145.4 ± 67.9 mg/L and 27.9 ± 22.4 ng/mL in non-SAP patients, with a statistically significant difference between the two groups (P < 0.001), The Pearson correlation analysis showed a positive correlation between the three values of HBP, CRP, and PCT. The results of the multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that HBP (OR = 1.070 [1.044-1.098], P < 0.001), CRP (OR = 1.010 [1.004-1.016], P = 0.001), and PCT (OR = 1.030[1.007-1.053], P < 0.001) were risk factors for SAP, and the area under the curve of the HBP-CRP-PCT model was 0.963 (0.936-0.990). The HCP model, consisting of HBP, CRP, and PCT; is well differentiated and easy to use and can predict the risk of SAP in advance.

Administration of Warfarin Inhibits the Development of Cerulein-Induced Edematous Acute Pancreatitis in Rats

Acute pancreatitis (AP) is a severe disease with high morbidity and mortality in which inflammation and coagulation play crucial roles. The development of inflammation leads to vascular injury, endothelium and leukocytes stimulation, and an increased level of tissue factor, which results in the activation of the coagulation process. For this reason, anticoagulants may be considered as a therapeutic option in AP. Previous studies have shown that pretreatment with heparin, low-molecular-weight heparin (LMWH), or acenocoumarol inhibits the development of AP. The aim of the present study was to check if pretreatment with warfarin affects the development of edematous pancreatitis evoked by cerulein. Warfarin (90, 180, or 270 µg/kg/dose) or saline were administered intragastrically once a day for 7 days consecutively before the induction of AP. AP was evoked by the intraperitoneal administration of cerulein. The pre-administration of warfarin at doses of 90 or 180 µg/kg/dose reduced the histological signs of pancreatic damage in animals with the induction of AP. Additionally, other parameters of AP, such as an increase in the serum activity of lipase and amylase, the plasma concentration of D-dimer, and interleukin-1β, were decreased. In addition, pretreatment with warfarin administered at doses of 90 or 180 µg/kg/dose reversed the limitation of pancreatic blood flow evoked by AP development. Warfarin administered at a dose of 270 µg/kg/dose did not exhibit a preventive effect in cerulein-induced AP. Conclusion: Pretreatment with low doses of warfarin inhibits the development of AP evoked by the intraperitoneal administration of cerulein.

Plasma Osteopontin Reflects Tissue Damage in Acute Pancreatitis

Several scoring systems for clinical prediction of the severity of acute pancreatitis (AP) have been proposed. Yet, there is still a need for an easy-to-measure biomarker. Osteopontin (OPN) may be released to the circulation early during tissue injury, but the significance of OPN in AP has not yet been established. We aimed to evaluate plasma levels of OPN in relation to the severity of AP. In 39 individuals with confirmed AP, plasma was collected on the day of admission and consecutively for three days thereafter. Sex- and age-matched healthy blood donors (n = 39) served as controls. Plasma OPN was measured by a commercial enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. At admission, patients with AP displayed higher OPN, 156.4 ng/mL (IQR 111.8-196.2) compared to controls, 37.4 ng/mL (IQR 11.7-65.7) (p < 0.0001). However, OPN levels on admission could not discriminate between mild and moderate-to-severe disease (132.6 ng/mL vs. 163.4 ng/mL). Nevertheless, the changes in OPN within 24 h of admission and Day 2/3 were higher among patients with moderate/severe AP (33.7%) compared to mild AP (-8.1%) (p = 0.01). This indicates that OPN is a relevant biomarker reflecting tissue injury in AP. The increase in OPN over time suggests that serial OPN measurements could contribute to the early detection of at-risk patients. Prospective studies assessing OPN in relation to outcome in AP are warranted.

A novel ROS-Related chemiluminescent semiconducting polymer nanoplatform for acute pancreatitis early diagnosis and severity assessment

Acute pancreatitis (AP) is a common and potentially life-threatening inflammatory disease of the pancreas. Reactive oxygen species (ROS) play a key role in the occurrence and development of AP. With increasing ROS levels, the degree of oxidative stress and the severity of AP increase. However, diagnosing AP still has many drawbacks, including difficulties with early diagnosis and undesirable sensitivity and accuracy. Herein, we synthesized a semiconducting polymer nanoplatform (SPN) that can emit ROS-correlated chemiluminescence (CL) signals. The CL intensity increased in solution after optimization of the SPN. The biosafety of the SPN was verified in vitro and in vivo. The mechanism and sensitivity of the SPN for AP early diagnosis and severity assessment were evaluated in three groups of mice using CL intensity, serum marker evaluations and hematoxylin and eosin staining assessments. The synthetic SPN can be sensitively combined with different concentrations of ROS to produce different degrees of high-intensity CL in vitro and in vivo. Notably, the SPN shows an excellent correlation between CL intensity and AP severity. This nanoplatform represents a superior method to assess the severity of AP accurately and sensitively according to ROS related chemiluminescence signals. This research overcomes the shortcomings of AP diagnosis in clinical practice and provides a novel method for the clinical diagnosis of pancreatitis in the future.

Potential of extracellular vesicles for early prediction of severity and potential risk stratification in critical inflammatory diseases

Some acute inflammatory diseases are often exacerbated during or after hospitalization, leading to some severe manifestations like systemic inflammatory response syndrome, multiple organ failure, and high mortality. Early clinical predictors of disease severity are urgently needed to optimize patient management for better prognosis. The existing clinical scoring system and laboratory tests cannot circumvent the problems of low sensitivity and limited specificity. Extracellular vesicles (EVs) are heterogeneous nanosecretory vesicles containing various biomolecules related to immune regulation, inflammation activation, and inflammation-related complications. This review provides an overview of EVs as inflammatory mediators, inflammatory signaling pathway regulators, promoters of inflammatory exacerbation, and markers of severity and prognosis. Currently, although relevant biomarkers are clinically available or are in the preclinical research stage, searching for new markers and detection methods is still warranted, as the problems of low sensitivity/specificity, cumbersome laboratory operation and high cost still plague clinicians. In-depth study of EVs might open a door in the search for novel predictors.

The severity and infection of acute pancreatitis may increase the risk of bleeding in patients undergoing EUS-guided drainage and endoscopic necrosectomy: a large retrospective cohort

BACKGROUND

There has been great progress in the use of endoscopic ultrasound (EUS)-guided drainage in acute pancreatitis patients using a novel lumen-apposing metal stent (LAMS) in the last decade, but some patients experience bleeding. Our research analyzed the preprocedural risk factors for bleeding.

METHODS

From July 13, 2016 to June 23, 2021, we retrospectively analyzed all patients who received endoscopic drainage by the LAMS in our hospital. Univariate and multivariate statistical analyses were used to identify the independent risk factors. We plotted ROC curves based on the independent risk factors.

RESULTS

A total of 205 patients were analyzed and 5 patients were excluded. A total of 200 patients were included in our research. Thirty (15%) patients presented with bleeding. In the multivariate analysis, computed tomography severity index score (CTSI) score [odds ratio (OR), 2.66; 95% CI: 1.31-5.38; P = 0.007], positive blood cultures [odds ratio (OR), 5.35; 95% CI: 1.31-21.9; P = 0.02], and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) score [odds ratio (OR), 1.14; 95% CI: 1. 01-1.29; P = 0.045] were associated with bleeding. The area under the ROC curve of the combined predictive indicator was 0.79.

CONCLUSION

Bleeding in endoscopic drainage by the LAMS is significantly associated with the CTSI score, positive blood cultures, and APACHE II score. This result could help clinicians make more appropriate choices.

Current trends in acute pancreatitis: Diagnostic and therapeutic challenges

Acute pancreatitis (AP) is an inflammatory disease of the pancreas, which can progress to severe AP, with a high risk of death. It is one of the most complicated and clinically challenging of all disorders affecting the abdomen. The main causes of AP are gallstone migration and alcohol abuse. Other causes are uncommon, controversial and insufficiently explained. The disease is primarily characterized by inappropriate activation of trypsinogen, infiltration of inflammatory cells, and destruction of secretory cells. According to the revised Atlanta classification, severity of the disease is categorized into three levels: Mild, moderately severe and severe, depending upon organ failure and local as well as systemic complications. Various methods have been used for predicting the severity of AP and its outcome, such as clinical evaluation, imaging evaluation and testing of various biochemical markers. However, AP is a very complex disease and despite the fact that there are of several clinical, biochemical and imaging criteria for assessment of severity of AP, it is not an easy task to predict its subsequent course. Therefore, there are existing controversies regarding diagnostic and therapeutic modalities, their effectiveness and complications in the treatment of AP. The main reason being the fact, that the pathophysiologic mechanisms of AP have not been fully elucidated and need to be studied further. In this editorial article, we discuss the efficacy of the existing diagnostic and therapeutic modalities, complications and treatment failure in the management of AP.

Sensitivity and specificity of CRP and symptom screening as tuberculosis screening tools among HIV-positive and negative outpatients at a primary healthcare facility in Lusaka, Zambia: a prospective cross-sectional study

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the performance of point-of-care C-reactive protein (CRP) as a screening tool for tuberculosis (TB) using a threshold of 10 mg/L in both people living with HIV (PLHIV) and HIV-negative individuals and compare it to symptom screening using a composite reference for bacteriological confirmation of TB.

METHODS

Prospective cross-sectional study.

SETTING

A primary healthcare facility in Lusaka, Zambia.

PARTICIPANTS

Consecutive adults (≥18 years) presenting for routine outpatient healthcare were enrolled. Of the 816 individuals approached to participate in the study, 804 eligible consenting adults were enrolled into the study, of which 783 were included in the analysis.

PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES

Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value (NPV) of CRP and symptom screening.

RESULTS

Overall, sensitivity of WHO-recommended four-symptom screen (W4SS) and CRP were 87.2% (80.0-92.5) and 86.6% (79.6-91.8) while specificity was 30.3% (26.7-34.1) and 34.8% (31.2-38.6), respectively. Among PLHIV, sensitivity of W4SS and CRP was 92.2% (81.1-97.8) and 94.8% (85.6-98.9) while specificity was 37.0% (31.3-43.0) and 27.5% (22.4-33.1), respectively. Among those with CD4≥350, the NPV for CRP was 100% (92.9-100). In the HIV negative, sensitivity of W4SS and CRP was 83.8% (73.4-91.3) and 80.3% (69.5-88.5) while specificity was 25.4% (20.9-30.2) and 40.5% (35.3-45.6), respectively. Parallel use of CRP and W4SS yielded a sensitivity and NPV of 100% (93.8-100) and 100% (91.6-100) among PLHIV and 93.3% (85.1-97.8) and 90.0% (78.2-96.7) among the HIV negatives, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Sensitivity and specificity of CRP were similar to symptom screening in HIV-positive outpatients. Independent use of CRP offered limited additional benefit in the HIV negative. CRP can independently accurately rule out TB in PLHIV with CD4≥350. Parallel use of CRP and W4SS improves sensitivity irrespective of HIV status and can accurately rule out TB in PLHIV, irrespective of CD4 count.

Emodin Exerts its Therapeutic Effects Through Metabolic Remodeling in Severe Acute Pancreatitis-Related Intestinal Injury

Background

Intestinal injury caused by severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) can induce peripancreatic and systemic infection, and aggravate systemic inflammation. Emodin has demonstrated efficacy in mitigating SAP-associated intestinal injury. Although metabolites in tissues cause histopathophysiological changes, data on the mechanisms of emodin on metabolic processes remain scant.

Methods

The SAP-related intestinal injury rat model was induced by injection of 3.5% sodium taurocholate solution through the biliopancreatic duct. The protective effect of emodin on intestinal injury was evaluated by histologic analyses. On the other hand, we assessed the effect of emodin on metabolic remodeling in intestinal tissues using untargeted metabolomics.

Results

Out of the analyzed 1187 metabolites, untargeted metabolomics identified 99 differential metabolites in the intestinal tissues. Emodin significantly alleviated the inflammatory injury in the pancreas and intestines. Emodin treatment led to significant changes in bile acid metabolism, amino acid metabolism, intestinal microbiota related metabolism, and glycerol phospholipid metabolism in the intestinal tissues. In addition, using the weighted gene co-expression network analysis, we constructed emodin related metabolite–metabolite interaction network and showed that intestinal microbiota related metabolites and glycerol phospholipid metabolism were associated with emodin treatment. Glycine, LPC (0:0/22:6), Spermidine, 11β-hydroxyprogesterone, and N1-methyl-2-Pyridone-5-carboxamide may be efficient molecules after emodin treatment.

Conclusion

Taken together, our data demonstrated that intestinal injury caused by SAP induces an obvious metabolic disorder. Emodin exerts its therapeutic effects through metabolic remodeling.

EARLY PREDICTIVE VALUE OF PRESEPSIN FOR SECONDARY SEPSIS AND MORTALITY IN INTENSIVE CARE UNIT PATIENTS WITH SEVERE ACUTE PANCREATITIS

ABSTRACT

Purpose : Sepsis is the leading cause of death in patients with severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) in the intensive care unit (ICU). Early prediction of sepsis secondary to SAP developed in the late phase and of related mortality can enable appropriate treatment and improve outcomes. This study was conducted to evaluate the predictive value of presepsin in ICU patients with SAP at the early stage and compared it with established blood markers and scoring systems. Methods : This retrospective study enrolled 48 septic patients and 53 nonseptic patients admitted to ICU with SAP. Presepsin and other blood markers (procalcitonin, C-reactive protein, IL-6, white blood cell, and serum creatinine) on days 1, 3, and 7 after enrollment as well as scoring systems were assessed to predict secondary sepsis. Outcomes were evaluated at ICU discharge and on days 28 and 90. Results : Presepsin levels (on days 1, 3, and 7) were significantly higher in septic patients than in nonseptic patients. Presepsin levels showed an increasing trend over time in both sepsis and nonsepsis groups, but concentrations increased more rapidly in the sepsis group than in the nonsepsis group. Among the analyzed biomarkers, presepsin was the only blood marker independently associated with sepsis secondary to SAP on days 3 and 7, and presepsin on day 3 was independently associated with mortality at ICU discharge and on days 28 and 90. It showed similar or even better predictive accuracy for both secondary sepsis and mortality than procalcitonin and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score. Conclusion : Presepsin could be a valuable early predictor of secondary sepsis and mortality in patients admitted to the ICU with SAP and may serve as an indicator for early risk stratification.

Complicated appendicitis, acute pancreatitis, pleural effusion, and sinus bradycardia in a COVID-19 patient

This study shows that complicated appendicitis and acute pancreatitis could occur during a COVID-19 infection, since the same gastrointestinal manifestations are notable in all aforementioned diseases. Sinus bradycardia is a side effect of remdesivir. Both COVID-19 infection and remdesivir therapy can elevate liver transaminases.

Effect of Synbiotics in Reducing the Systemic Inflammatory Response and Septic Complications in Moderately Severe and Severe Acute Pancreatitis: A Prospective Parallel-Arm Double-Blind Randomized Trial

AIM

This study aimed at evaluating the efficacy of synbiotics in reducing septic complications in moderately severe and severe acute pancreatitis.

METHODS

This was a prospective, parallel-arm, double-blinded superiority randomized control study. All patients with moderately severe and severe acute pancreatitis were included in the study. Acute on chronic pancreatitis, pancreatitis due to trauma, ERCP and malignancy were excluded. 1 g of synbiotic containing both pre- and probiotics was administered to the cases twice a day for 14 days and a similar-looking placebo to controls. Patients were followed for 90 days. Primary outcomes were reduction of septic complications and inflammatory marker levels. Secondary outcomes were mortality, non-septic morbidity, length of hospitalization (LOH) and need for intervention.

RESULTS

A total of 86 patients were randomized to 43 in each arm. Demographic profile and severity of pancreatitis were comparable. There was no significant difference in septic complications between the groups (59% vs. 64%; p 0.59). Total leucocyte and neutrophil counts showed a significant reduction in the first 7 days (p = 0.01 and 0.05). No significant difference was seen in other inflammatory markers. There was a significant reduction in the LOH (10 vs. 7; p = 0.02). Non-septic morbidity (41% vs. 62.2%; p 0.06) and length of ICU stay (3 vs. 2; p 0.06) had a trend towards significance. The need for intervention and mortality was comparable.

CONCLUSION

Synbiotics did not significantly reduce the septic complications in patients with moderately severe and severe acute pancreatitis; however, they significantly reduced the LOH. There was no reduction in mortality and need for intervention. Clinical Trials Registry of India Number: CTRI/2018/03/012597.

Pancreatitis aguda: puntos clave. Revisión argumentativa de la literatura

Introducción. La pancreatitis aguda es una condición gastrointestinal común que se asocia a una importante morbimortalidad. Se estima que su incidencia es de 34 por cada 100.000 habitantes, afecta principalmente a adultos a partir de la sexta década de la vida y en nuestra región es debida en la mayoría de los casos a cálculos biliares. Métodos. Se hizo una revisión de los aspectos fundamentales de esta patología, común y potencialmente mortal. Resultados. El diagnóstico requiere del hallazgo de manifestaciones clínicas, aumento de las enzimas pancreáticas en suero y, en ocasiones, el uso de imágenes diagnósticas. Se puede clasificar en leve, moderada y severa, lo cual es fundamental para determinar la necesidad de tratamiento y vigilancia en una unidad de cuidados intensivos. Conclusión. En la actualidad los pilares de manejo de la pancreatitis aguda son la terapia temprana con líquidos, tratamiento del dolor, inicio precoz de la vía oral y resolución del factor etiológico desencadenante. En presencia de complicaciones o un curso severo de enfermedad, pueden requerirse manejo antibiótico e intervenciones invasivas.

Early predictive value of scoring systems and routine laboratory tests in severity and prognosis of acute pancreatitis in pregnancy

Background

Currently, no guidelines specifically recommend scoring systems and biomarkers for early evaluation of the severity and prognosis of acute pancreatitis in pregnancy (APIP).

Objectives

This study aimed to explore the early predictive value of scoring systems and routine laboratory tests on APIP severity and maternofetal prognosis.

Design

This study retrospectively analyzed 62 APIP cases in a 6-year period.

Methods

The predictive value of scoring systems and routine laboratory tests that were collected 24 h and 48 h after admission, for APIP severity and fetal loss, were analyzed.

Results

To detect severe acute pancreatitis (SAP), a 24-h Bedside Index for severity in acute pancreatitis (BISAP) achieved a higher area under the curve (AUC) value of 0.910 than the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (AUC = 0.898) and Ranson score (AUC = 0.880). The combination of BISAP, glucose, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), hematocrit (Hct), and serum creatinine (Scr) provided an AUC value of 0.984, which had greater predictive power than BISAP (p = 0.015). 24-h BISAP and Hct were independent risk factors for predicting SAP of APIP. The cutoff values of Hct and blood urea nitrogen (BUN) to predict SAP were 35.60% and 3.75 mmol/l in the APIP. Furthermore, 24-h BISAP had the highest predictive power (AUC = 0.958) for fetal loss.

Conclusion

BISAP is a convenient and reliable indicator for the early prediction of SAP and fetal loss in APIP. The combination of BISAP, glucose, NLR, Hct and Scr proved to be the optimal early markers for the prediction of SAP in APIP within 24 h after admission. In addition, Hct > 35.60% and BUN > 3.75 mmol/l may be suitable thresholds for predicting SAP in APIP.

The Evaluation of Inflammatory Biomarkers in Predicting Progression of Acute Pancreatitis to Pancreatic Necrosis: A Diagnostic Test Accuracy Review

Acute pancreatitis is the acute inflammation of the pancreas; 30% of cases may progress to pancreatic necrosis. The aim of this study was to assess the diagnostic accuracy of inflammatory biomarkers (C-reactive protein (CRP), procalcitonin (PCT), and lactate dehydrogenase (LDH)) in detecting pancreatic necrosis in adults with confirmed acute pancreatitis within 14 days of symptom onset and without organ failure. A systematic search was conducted across the Cumulative Index of Nursing and Allied Health (CINAHL), Cochrane, Embase, PubMed, and Web of Science until May 30, 2022, with the following keywords: acute disease, biomarkers, C-reactive protein, calcitonin, differential, diagnosis, lactate dehydrogenase, pancreatitis, acute necrotizing, necrosis, sensitivity, specificity. Statistical analysis was conducted in RevMan 5.4.1 (Cochrane). Five studies pooling 645 participants were included of which 59.8% were males, with a mean age of 49 years. CRP was the best cutoff at 279 mg/L (χ2 = 47.43, p < 0.001), followed by 200 mg/L (χ2 = 36.54, p < 0.001). LDH was cut off at 290 units/L (χ2 = 51.6, p < 0.001), whereas PCT did not display the most reliable results at 0.05 ng/mL. Inflammatory biomarkers are scalable diagnostic tools that may confer clinical value by decreasing the mortality of acute pancreatitis sequelae.

Dynamics of Serum Procalcitonin Can Predict Outcome in Patients of Infected Pancreatic Necrosis: A Prospective Analysis

BACKGROUND

Timely intervention can alter outcome in patients of infected pancreatic necrosis (IPN) but lacks adequate biomarker. Role of serum procalcitonin (PCT) in the management of IPN is understudied, and hence, this study was planned.

METHODOLOGY

All patients of acute pancreatitis with IPN without prior intervention were included. Baseline demographic, radiological and laboratory parameters were documented. PCT was measured at baseline, prior to intervention, and thereafter every 72 h. Patients were grouped into those having baseline PCT < 1.0 ng/mL and those with PCT ≥ 1.0 ng/mL and various outcome measures were compared.

RESULTS

Of the 242 patients screened, 103 cases (66 males; 64.1%) with IPN were grouped into 2: PCT < 1.0 ng/mL (n = 29) and PCT ≥ 1.0 ng/mL (n = 74). Patients with baseline PCT ≥ 1.0 ng/mL had significantly more severe disease scores. 16 out of 19 patients with rise in PCT on day-7 post-intervention expired. PCT ≥ 1.0 ng/mL group had higher need for ICU (p = 0.001) and mortality (p = 0.044). PCT > 2.25 ng/mL (aOR 22.56; p = 0.013) at baseline and failure in reduction of PCT levels to < 60% of baseline at day-7 post-intervention (aOR 53.76; p = 0.001) were significant mortality predictors.

CONCLUSION

Baseline PCT > 1.0 ng/mL is associated with poor outcome. PCT > 2.25 ng/mL and failure in reduction of PCT levels to < 60% of its baseline at day-7 post-intervention can identify high-mortality risk patients.

Evidence-Based Approach to the Surgical Management of Acute Pancreatitis

Background  Acute pancreatitis is a significant challenge to health services. Remarkable progress has been made in the last decade in optimizing its management.

Methods  This review is a comprehensive assessment of 7 guidelines employed in current clinical practice with an appraisal of the underlying evidence, including 15 meta-analyses/systematic reviews, 16 randomized controlled trials, and 31 cohort studies.

Results  Key tenets of early management of acute pancreatitis include severity stratification based on the degree of organ failure and early goal-directed fluid resuscitation. Rigorous determination of etiology reduces the risk of recurrence. Early enteral nutrition and consideration of epidural analgesia have been pioneered in recent years with promising results. Indications for invasive intervention are becoming increasingly refined. The definitive indications for endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography in acute pancreatitis are associated with cholangitis and common bile duct obstruction. The role of open surgical necrosectomy has diminished with the development of a minimally invasive step-up necrosectomy protocol. Increasing use of endoscopic ultrasound–guided intervention in the management of pancreatic necrosis has helped reduce pancreatic fistula rates and hospital stay.

Conclusion  The optimal approach to surgical management of complicated pancreatitis depends on patient physiology and disease anatomy, in addition to the available resources and expertise. This is best achieved with a multidisciplinary approach. This review provides a distillation of the recommendations of clinical guidelines and critical discussion of the evidence that informs them and presents an algorithmic approach to key areas of patient management.

Interleukin-6 is better than C-reactive protein for the prediction of infected pancreatic necrosis and mortality in patients with acute pancreatitis

INTRODUCTION

This study aimed to identify whether interleukin-6 (IL-6) is better than C-reactive protein (CRP) for the prediction of severe acute pancreatitis (SAP), infected pancreatic necrosis (IPN), and mortality.

METHODS

Sixty-seven patients with acute pancreatitis (AP) who were hospitalized within 48 h of onset and received serum CRP and IL-6 tests from September 2018 to September 2019 were included. Spearman's correlation was performed to assess their associations with severity. The areas under the curve (AUCs) for the prediction of SAP, organ failure, pancreatic necrosis, IPN, and mortality were estimated using receiver operating characteristic curves.

RESULT

Serum CRP and IL-6 levels were significantly positively correlated with the severity of AP (p < 0.05). The AUC for the prediction of SAP based on the CRP level was 0.78 (95% CI, 0.66-0.89) and that based on the IL-6 level was 0.69 (95% CI, 0.56-0.82). For the prediction of organ failure and pancreatic necrosis, CRP was more accurate than IL-6 (AUC 0.80 vs. 0.72 and 0.75 vs. 0.68, respectively). However, CRP was less accurate than IL-6 for predicting mortality and IPN (AUC 0.70 vs. 0.75 and 0.65 vs. 0.81, respectively). Systemic inflammatory response syndrome plus CRP was more accurate than systemic inflammatory response syndrome plus IL-6 (AUC 0.79 vs. 0.72) for the prediction of SAP.

CONCLUSIONS

IL-6 was more accurate than CRP for predicting mortality and IPN in patients with AP.

Preexisting diabetes, serum calcium and D-dimer levels as predictable risk factors for pancreatic necrosis of patients with acute pancreatitis: a retrospective study

BACKGROUND

Some individuals with acute pancreatitis (AP) suffer from pancreatic necrosis. Diabetes affects the severity of AP, but whether diabetes influences pancreatic necrosis is unclear. This study aims to investigate the clinical characteristics of AP patients with and without diabetes as well as analyze the risk factors of pancreatic necrosis.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

A total of 625 AP patients participated in the study. Clinical and laboratory data were retrieved. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to identify the risk factors for pancreatic necrosis. ROC curves assess the accuracy of indicators for predicting pancreatic necrosis in AP.

RESULTS

AP patients with diabetes had high BMI, CTSI scores, pancreatitis severity, WBC, neutrophil, CRP, triacylglycerols and glucose levels. Diabetes, serum calcium and D-dimer were independent risk factors for pancreatic necrosis. Pancreatic necrosis in diabetes patients is also associated with sex and age. D-dimer is a better predictor of pancreatic necrosis in AP patients than serum calcium.

CONCLUSIONS

Diabetic patients are more likely to suffer severe AP. Serum calcium and D-dimer are independent predictors for pancreatic necrosis. Furthermore, low serum calcium, high D-dimer levels, younger age and female sex are independent risk factors for pancreatic necrosis in AP patients with diabetes.

Management of Necrotizing Pancreatitis

Necrotizing pancreatitis affects 10% to 15% of all patients with acute pancreatitis. Despite improved understanding of this complex disease, it is still attended by up to 15% mortality. Necrotizing pancreatitis provides the clinical challenges of working in a multi-disciplinary group, determining proper timing for intervention, and identifying appropriate intervention approaches. The step-up approach consists of supportive care initially. When there is documented infected necrosis, treatment begins with antibiotics, progressing to minimally invasive mechanical necrosis intervention, and reserving surgery as the final treatment modality. However, treatment must be tailored to the individual patient. This article provides an overview of necrotizing pancreatitis.

CT Characteristics of Acute Pancreatitis with Preexisting Fatty Liver and Its Impact on Pancreatitis Severity and Persistent Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome

Purpose

To study the CT characteristics of acute pancreatitis (AP) associated with preexisting fatty liver (FL) and the impact of preexisting FL on the severity of AP and persistent systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS).

Patients and Methods

A total of 189 patients with AP were divided into AP with and without preexisting FL. The CT features, clinical characteristics, severity of AP, and presence of persistent SIRS between the two groups were compared. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to determine the risk factors for predicting SIRS. The diagnostic performances of the risk factors were evaluated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis.

Results

Among the 189 patients, 49.7% (94/189) had preexisting FL. On CT, AP patients with preexisting FL were more likely to develop necrosis (23.4% vs 10.5%, p=0.021), local complications (45.7% vs 29.5%, p=0.025) and persistent SIRS (59.6% vs 27.4%, p<0.001). Multivariate analysis showed that preexisting FL (OR=2.863, 95% CI: 1.264–6.486, p=0.012), APACHE II≥6 (OR=1.334, 95% CI: 1.117–1.594, p=0.002), and MCTSI ≥4 (OR=1.489, 95% CI: 1.046–2.119, p=0.027) could be independent risk factors for persistent SIRS. The areas under the ROC curve of preexisting FL, APACHE II, and MCISI in diagnosing AP patients with persistent SIRS were 0.664, 0.703, and 0.783, respectively.

Conclusion

Patients with preexisting FL were more likely to develop necrosis and local complications on CT and present more severe AP and persistent SIRS. Preexisting FL can be an independent risk factor in predicting the presence of persistent SIRS in patients with AP.

Diagnosis and Treatment of Acute Pancreatitis

The pancreas is a glandular organ that is responsible for the proper functioning of the digestive and endocrine systems, and therefore, it affects the condition of the entire body. Consequently, it is important to effectively diagnose and treat diseases of this organ. According to clinicians, pancreatitis—a common disease affecting the pancreas—is one of the most complicated and demanding diseases of the abdomen. The classification of pancreatitis is based on clinical, morphologic, and histologic criteria. Medical doctors distinguish, inter alia, acute pancreatitis (AP), the most common causes of which are gallstone migration and alcohol abuse. Effective diagnostic methods and the correct assessment of the severity of acute pancreatitis determine the selection of an appropriate treatment strategy and the prediction of the clinical course of the disease, thus preventing life-threatening complications and organ dysfunction or failure. This review collects and organizes recommendations and guidelines for the management of patients suffering from acute pancreatitis.

Myeloid-Derived Suppressor Cells in Patients With Acute Pancreatitis With Increased Inhibitory Function

Acute pancreatitis (AP) is pancreatic or systemic inflammation without or with motion organ dysfunction. Severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) is the main cause of death for patients with AP. A pro-/anti-inflammatory imbalance is considered the key regulation of disease severity. However, the real mechanism of SAP remains unclear. This study aimed to identify the frequency and specific roll of myeloid-derived suppressor cell (MDSC) in AP. We evaluated MDSC frequency and disease severity by analyzing MDSCs in the peripheral blood of healthy controls (HCs) and patients with mild acute pancreatitis (MAP) and SAP by flow cytometry. We also compared the frequency and inhibitory ability of MDSCs from HCs and SAP, and finally detected the reason for the difference in inhibitory ability. AP was marked by expansion of MDSCs as well as its subsets, granulocytic MDSCs (G-MDSCs) and monocytic MDSCs (M-MDSCs). The proportion of MDSC in the peripheral blood mononuclear cells of patients with AP was increased and positively correlated with AP severity. The frequency of MDSC was decreased after treatment compared with pre-treatment. CD3+ T cells were remarkably inhibited by MDSC derived from the patients with SAP. In the expression of arginase-1 (Arg-1) and reactive oxygen species (ROS), the MDSCs from patients with SAP increased. These findings demonstrated that MDSCs expanded in the peripheral blood in patients with AP, especially in those with SAP. Moreover, the inhibitory ability of MDSCs was increased in the patients with SAP compared with that in the HCs. The enhanced suppressive function was possibly caused by an overexpression of Arg-1 and ROS.

Ovariectomy Affects Acute Pancreatitis in Mice

BACKGROUND

Serum estradiol levels in severe acute injury are correlated with in hospital mortality. In acute pancreatitis, serum estradiol levels are strong predictors of disease severity. Studies of whether changes in estradiol levels play a causative role in acute pancreatitis severity are limited. The ovariectomized mouse model has been used to study the effects of estradiol in health and disease.

AIMS

We assessed whether the ovariectomized mouse model could be used to assess the effects of estradiol on pancreatitis severity.

METHODS

C57BL/6 mice with their ovaries removed were used to simulate low circulating estradiol conditions. Ovariectomized mice were treated with six hourly injections of cerulein to induce mild acute pancreatitis and compared to ovariectomized mice pre-treated with subcutaneous estradiol injections.

RESULTS

Findings suggest ovariectomized model is a problematic preparation to study pancreatitis. At baseline, ovariectomy leads to prominent acinar cell ultrastructure changes as well as changes in other select morphologic and biomarkers of pancreatitis. In addition, ovariectomy changed select acute pancreatitis responses that were only partially rescued by estradiol pre-treatment.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings suggest that the ovariectomized mouse as a model of estradiol depletion should be used with caution in pancreatic studies. Future studies should explore whether derangements in other female hormones produced by the ovaries can lead to changes in pancreatic studies.

The predictive value of procalcitonin combined with C-reactive protein and D dimer in moderately severe and severe acute pancreatitis

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this study is to investigate the predictive value of a parametric model constructed by using procalcitonin, C-reactive protein (CRP) and D dimer within 48 h after admission in moderately severe and severe acute pancreatitis.

METHODS

A total of 238 patients were enrolled, of which 170 patients were moderately severe and severe acute pancreatitis (MSAP+SAP). The concentrations of procalcitonin, CRP and D dimer within 48 h after admission were obtained. The predictive value of the parametric model, modified computed tomography severity index (MCTSI), bedside index for severity in acute pancreatitis (BISAP), Ranson score, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) score, modified Marshall score and systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) score of all patients was calculated and compared.

RESULTS

The area under receiver operator characteristic curve, sensitivity, specificity, Youden index and critical value of the parametric model for predicting MSAP+SAP were 0.853 (95% CI, 0.804-0.903), 84.71%, 70.59%, 55.30% and 0.2833, respectively. The sensitivity of the parametric model was higher than that of MCTSI (84.00%), Ranson score (73.53%), BISAP (56.47%), APACHE II score (27.65%), modified Marshall score (17.06%) and SIRS score (78.24%); the specificity of it were higher than that of MCTSI (52.94%) and Ranson score (67.65%), but lower than BISAP (73.53%), APACHE II score (76.47%), modified Marshall score (100%)and SIRS score (100.00%).

CONCLUSION

The parametric model constructed by using procalcitonin 48 h, CRP 48 h and D dimer 48 h can be regarded as an evaluation model for predicting moderately severe and severe acute pancreatitis.

Role of Pancreatic Stone Protein as an Early Biomarker for Risk Stratification of Acute Pancreatitis

BACKGROUND

Early risk stratification of acute pancreatitis is crucial to improve clinical outcomes. The objective of this study was to evaluate the ability of pancreatic stone protein (PSP) to predict acute pancreatitis severity and to compare it with the biomarkers and severity scores currently used for that purpose.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Prospective single-center observational study enrolling 268 adult patients with acute pancreatitis. Biomarkers including PSP were measured upon admission to the Emergency Department and severity scores as SOFA, PANC-3, and BISAP were computed. Patients were classified into mild-moderate (non-severe) and severe acute pancreatitis according to the Determinant-Based Classification Criteria. Area under the curve (AUC) and regression analysis were used to analyze the discrimination abilities and the association of biomarkers and scores with severity.

RESULTS

Two hundred and thirty-five patients (87.7%) were classified as non-severe and 33 (12.3%) as severe acute pancreatitis. Median [IQR] PSP was increased in patients with severe acute pancreatitis (890 μg/L [559-1142] vs. 279 μg/L [141-496]; p < 0.001) and it was the best predictor (ROC AUC: 0.827). In multivariate analysis, PSP and urea were the only independent predictors for severe acute pancreatitis and a model combining them both ("biomarker model") showed an AUC of 0.841 for prediction of severe acute pancreatitis, higher than the other severity scores.

CONCLUSIONS

PSP is a promising biomarker for predicting the severity of acute pancreatitis upon admission. A model combining PSP and urea might further constitute a potential tool for early risk stratification of this disease.

Dynamic nomogram for persistent organ failure in acute biliary pancreatitis: Development and validation in a retrospective study

BACKGROUND

Persistent organ failure (POF) increases the risk of death in patients with acute biliary pancreatitis (ABP). Currently, there is no early risk assessment tool for POF in patients with ABP.

AIMS

To establish and validate a dynamic nomogram for predicting the risk of POF in ABP.

METHODS

This was a retrospective study of 792 patients with ABP, with 595 cases in the development group and 197 cases in the validation group. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression screened the predictors of POF, and logistic regression established the model (P < 0.05). A dynamic nomogram showed the model. We evaluated the model's discrimination, calibration, and clinical effectiveness; used the bootstrap method for internal validation; and conducted external validation in the validation group.

RESULTS

Neutrophils, haematocrit, serum calcium, and blood urea nitrogen were predictors of POF in ABP. In the development group and validation group, the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCs) were 0.875 and 0.854, respectively, and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test (P > 0.05) and calibration curve showed good consistency between the actual and prediction probability. Decision curve analysis showed that the dynamic nomogram has excellent clinical value.

CONCLUSION

This dynamic nomogram helps with the early identification and screening of high-risk patients with POF in ABP.

Predictive value of serum cholinesterase in the mortality of acute pancreatitis: A retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Severe acute pancreatitis has a high mortality of 20%-40%, but there is a lack of optimal prognostic biomarker for the severity of acute pancreatitis (AP) or mortality. This study is designed to investigate the relationship between serum cholinesterase (ChE) level and poor outcomes of AP.

METHODS

A total of 1904 AP patients were screened in the study, and we finally got 692 patients eligible for analysis. Patients were divided into 2 groups based on serum ChE. The primary outcome was mortality, and multivariable logistic regression analysis for mortality was completed. Additionally, we used receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis to clarify the predictive value of serum ChE for mortality and organ failure.

RESULTS

Three hundred and seventy eight patients and 314 patients were included in the ChE-low and ChE-normal group, respectively. Patients in the ChE-low group were older (46.68 ± 12.70 vs. 43.56 ± 12.13 years old, p = .001) and had a lower percentage of man (62.4% vs. 71.0%, p = .017) when compared to the ChE-normal group. Mortality was significantly different in two groups (10.3% vs. 0.0%, p < .001). Moreover, organ failure also differed significantly in two groups (46.6% vs. 8.6%, p < .001). Decreased ChE level was independently associated with mortality in acute pancreatitis (odds ratio: 0.440; 95% confidence interval, 0.231, 0.838, p = .013). The area under the curve of serum ChE was 0.875 and 0.803 for mortality and organ failure, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Lower level of serum ChE was independently associated with the severity and mortality of AP.

Predicting the Need for Therapeutic Intervention and Mortality in Acute Pancreatitis: A Two-Center International Study Using Machine Learning

Background: Current approaches to predicting intervention needs and mortality have reached 65–85% accuracy, which falls below clinical decision-making requirements in patients with acute pancreatitis (AP). We aimed to accurately predict therapeutic intervention needs and mortality on admission, in AP patients, using machine learning (ML). Methods: Data were obtained from three databases of patients admitted with AP: one retrospective (Chengdu) and two prospective (Liverpool and Chengdu) databases. Intervention and mortality differences, as well as potential predictors, were investigated. Univariate analysis was conducted, followed by a random forest ML algorithm used in multivariate analysis, to identify predictors. The ML performance matrix was applied to evaluate the model’s performance. Results: Three datasets of 2846 patients included 25 potential clinical predictors in the univariate analysis. The top ten identified predictors were obtained by ML models, for predicting interventions and mortality, from the training dataset. The prediction of interventions includes death in non-intervention patients, validated with high accuracy (96%/98%), the area under the receiver-operating-characteristic curve (0.90/0.98), and positive likelihood ratios (22.3/69.8), respectively. The post-test probabilities in the test set were 55.4% and 71.6%, respectively, which were considerably superior to existing prognostic scores. The ML model, for predicting mortality in intervention patients, performed better or equally with prognostic scores. Conclusions: ML, using admission clinical predictors, can accurately predict therapeutic interventions and mortality in patients with AP.

Establishment of Early Multi-Indicator Prediction Models of Moderately Severe Acute Pancreatitis and Severe Acute Pancreatitis

Background

It is critical to accurately identify patients with severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) and moderately SAP (MSAP) in a timely manner. The study was done to establish two early multi-indicator prediction models of MSAP and SAP.

Methods

Clinical data of 469 patients with acute pancreatitis (AP) between 2015 and 2020, at the First Affiliated Hospital of Fujian Medical University, and between 2012 and 2020, at the Affiliated Union Hospital of Fujian Medical University, were retrospectively analyzed. The unweighted predictive score (unwScore) and weighted predictive score (wScore) for MSAP and SAP were derived using logistic regression analysis and were compared with four existing systems using receiver operating characteristic curves.

Results

Seven prognostic indicators were selected for incorporation into models, including white blood cell count, lactate dehydrogenase, C-reactive protein, triglyceride, D-dimer, serum potassium, and serum calcium. The cut-offs of the unwScore and wScore for predicting severity were set as 3 points and 0.513 points, respectively. The unwScore (AUC = 0.854) and wScore (AUC = 0.837) were superior to the acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II score (AUC = 0.526), the bedside index for severity in AP score (AUC = 0.766), and the Ranson score (AUC = 0.693) in predicting MSAP and SAP, which were equivalent to the modified computed tomography severity index score (AUC = 0.823).

Conclusions

The unwScore and wScore have good predictive value for MSAP and SAP, which could provide a valuable clinical reference for management and treatment.

The visceral adiposity index predicts the severity of hyperlipidaemic acute pancreatitis

It is important to clarify the severity of acute pancreatitis (AP) in the early stages of the disease. The visceral adiposity index (VAI), calculated using the waist circumference (WC), body mass index (BMI), triglyceride (TG) levels, and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-c), indirectly reflects visceral adiposity function and can be used to explore its value in evaluating and predicting the severity of hyperlipidaemic acute pancreatitis (HLAP). The VAIs of 227 patients with HLAP were calculated by retrospective analysis of body parameters and laboratory indicators. The correlation between the VAI and HLAP severity, local complications, and systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) response was analysed. The VAI was significantly higher in patients with severe and moderately severe AP than in patients with mild AP (both p < 0.05). Length of hospital stay (LOS), AP severity, systemic complications, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE-II) score, and SIRS score were significantly correlated with the VAI in HLAP patients. The VAI had the highest area under the curve of receiver operating characteristics (ROC) (0.755, 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.691-0.819) for predicting AP severity. The multivariate-adjusted odds ratio (HR) for the VAI in the relationship of body parameters and the severity of HLAP was 3.818 (95% CI, 1.395-10.452). Our study shows that the VAI is a valuable indicator for predicting and assessing the severity of hyperlipidaemic acute pancreatitis. Its increase is closely related to poor prognosis in patients with HLAP.

A Severe Acute Pancreatitis Mouse Model Transited from Mild Symptoms Induced by a “Two-Hit” Strategy with L-Arginine

To develop a severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) model transited from mild symptoms, we investigated a “two-hit” strategy with L-arginine in mice. The mice were intraperitoneally injected with ice-cold L-arginine (4 g/kg) twice at an interval of 1 h on the first day and subjected to the repeated operation 72 h afterwards. The results showed the “two-hit” strategy resulted in the destructive damage and extensive necrosis of acinar cells in the pancreas compared with the “one-hit” model. Meanwhile, excessive levels of pro-inflammatory mediators, namely IL-6 and TNF-α, were released in the serum. Remarkably, additional deleterious effects on multiple organs were observed, including high intestinal permeability, kidney injury, and severe acute lung injury. Therefore, we confirmed that the SAP animal model triggered by a “two-hit” strategy with L-arginine was successfully established, providing a solid foundation for a deeper understanding of SAP initiation and therapy research to prevent worsening of the disease.