Gender differences in antidepressant use-related seasonality change in suicide mortality in Hungary, 1998-2006

Patterns of suicide deaths in Hungary between 1995 and 2017

Hungary has had one of the highest suicide mortality rates in the world for decades. Investigating seasonality of suicide deaths is essential as its findings could be key elements in the prevention. In our study we have analyzed the seasonal effect in suicide mortality in relation to possible risk factors in Hungary during 1995–2017.

Data on the numbers of suicide deaths were obtained from a published online database. Negative binomial regression was employed to investigate the effect of possible risk factors and seasonal and annual trends in suicide rates. The seasonal effect was further investigated, adding a significant risk factor from the “initial” negative binomial regression.

The suicide risk was significantly (p < 0.001) higher in men than in women (incidence rate ratio: 3.48), and it increased with age and decreased with education level. Marriage was a protective factor against suicide. Annual suicide mortality declined significantly (p < 0.001 for trend) from 36.7 (95% confidence interval: 35.5–37.9) to 16.5 (15.7–17.3) per 100,000 persons per year during the study period. Significant seasonality was found in suicide rates with a peak in late June. Similar peaks were observed at each level of each risk factor. There were differences in peaks by suicide method. The peak of non-violent suicides was in early June; suicides committed by violent methods peaked half a month later.

This study suggests that there was a significant seasonal effect on suicide deaths between 1995 and 2017, which remained significant even in the presence of each risk factor. To our knowledge, this has been the first study to investigate the seasonal pattern so extensively in Hungary. Our findings confirm that the environmental effects are involved in the etiology of suicide mortality.

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Significant seasonality was found in suicide rates with a peak in late June.

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Seasonal effect remained almost unchanged after adjusting sociodemographic factors.

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There were differences in seasonal peaks by suicide method.

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Environmental effects are involved in the etiology of suicide mortality.

Do psychiatric diseases follow annual cyclic seasonality?

Seasonal affective disorder (SAD) famously follows annual cycles, with incidence elevation in the fall and spring. Should some version of cyclic annual pattern be expected from other psychiatric disorders? Would annual cycles be similar for distinct psychiatric conditions? This study probes these questions using 2 very large datasets describing the health histories of 150 million unique U.S. citizens and the entire Swedish population. We performed 2 types of analysis, using “uncorrected” and “corrected” observations. The former analysis focused on counts of daily patient visits associated with each disease. The latter analysis instead looked at the proportion of disease-specific visits within the total volume of visits for a time interval. In the uncorrected analysis, we found that psychiatric disorders’ annual patterns were remarkably similar across the studied diseases in both countries, with the magnitude of annual variation significantly higher in Sweden than in the United States for psychiatric, but not infectious diseases. In the corrected analysis, only 1 group of patients—11 to 20 years old—reproduced all regularities we observed for psychiatric disorders in the uncorrected analysis; the annual healthcare-seeking visit patterns associated with other age-groups changed drastically. Analogous analyses over infectious diseases were less divergent over these 2 types of computation. Comparing these 2 sets of results in the context of published psychiatric disorder seasonality studies, we tend to believe that our uncorrected results are more likely to capture the real trends, while the corrected results perhaps reflect mostly artifacts determined by dominantly fluctuating, health-seeking visits across a given year. However, the divergent results are ultimately inconclusive; thus, we present both sets of results unredacted, and, in the spirit of full disclosure, leave the verdict to the reader.

Should we expect psychiatric disorders to show a cyclic annual pattern? This study reveals that psychiatric diseases’ annual patterns were remarkably similar across the studied diseases in both the US and Sweden, with the magnitude of annual variation significantly higher in Sweden than in the US for psychiatric, but not infectious, diseases.

Seasonality of Suicides among Victims Who Are under the Influence of Alcohol

Introduction: Suicide is one of the most frequent causes of death. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), each year, over eight hundred thousand people worldwide die as a result of suicide. The most common risk factors for suicide are depressive disorders and alcohol dependence. Alcohol can directly influence a decision about suicide, or be a factor facilitating this decision. The aim of the study was to analyse the seasonality of suicides among persons under the influence of alcohol. Material and Methods: Data for analysis were obtained from the Department of Forensic Medicine (DFM) of the Medical University of Warsaw. A retrospective analysis was performed on 317 victims of suicides by hanging, those which were entered into the registry of deaths kept by the DFM in the years 2009–2013. The analysis took into account the age and sex of victims, initial cause of death, date of post-mortem examination, autopsy result and alcohol concentration in the blood or muscles of the victims. Statistical analysis was performed using IBM SPSS Statistics version 20. Results: In the analysis, a spring peak of suicides was found for men, and an autumn peak was revealed for women. In addition, a significant correlation was observed between the age of victims and the concentration of alcohol; the older the victims, the higher the alcohol concentration. However, this correlation was reported only in the spring months. Conclusions: The results of the analysis seem to be consistent with seasonal patterns observed in other studies, and they indicate the occurrence of suicide seasonality. In order to improve the strategies of suicide prevention, it is necessary to identify factors which are related to the seasonal variation of suicidal behaviours, as well as to gain knowledge about the mechanisms behind this phenomenon.

Seasonal variation of mortality from external causes in Hungary between 1995 and 2014

Objective

To analyze trends in external mortality in Hungary between 1995 and 2014 by sex.

Methods

Data on the numbers of deaths due to external causes were obtained from the published nationwide population register. Negative binomial regression was applied to investigate the yearly trends in external-cause mortality rates. Cyclic trends were investigated using the Walter-Elwood method.

Results

Suicide and accidents accounted for approximately 84% of the all-external-cause of deaths in Hungary. Annual suicide, unintentional falls and traffic accidents mortality declined significantly (p-value for annual trend: p < 0.001) from 30.5 (95% CI: 29.5–31.5) to 15.8 (15.1–16.5), from 31.2 (30.2–32.2) to 12.2 (11.7–12.8) and from 17.2 (16.4–18) to 5.4 (5–5.8) per 100 000 persons per year, respectively, during the study period. A significant declining trend in annual mortality was also found for assault, cold/heating-related accidents and accidents caused by electric current. However, the declining trend for drowning-related accidents was significant only for males. Significant winter-peak seasonality was found in the mortality rates from accidental falls, cold/heat-related accidents, other accidents caused by submersion/obstruction and other causes. Seasonal trends with a peak from June to July were observed in death rates from suicide/self-harm, accidental drowning/submersion and accidents caused by electric current. A significant seasonal variation with a peak in September was revealed in the mortality due to traffic accidents.

Conclusions

This Hungarian study suggests that there was a significant seasonal effect on almost all kinds of deaths from external causes between 1995 and 2014. Environmental effects are involved in the aetiology of suicide and accidents.

Climate change but not unemployment explains the changing suicidality in Thessaloniki Greece (2000-2012)

INTRODUCTION

Recently there was a debate concerning the etiology behind attempts and completed suicides. The aim of the current study was to search for possible correlations between the rates of attempted and completed suicide and climate variables and regional unemployment per year in the county of Thessaloniki, Macedonia, northern Greece, for the years 2000-12.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

The regional rates of suicide and attempted suicide as well as regional unemployment were available from previous publications of the authors. The climate variables were calculated from the daily E-OBS gridded dataset which is based on observational data

RESULTS

Only the male suicide rates correlate significantly with high mean annual temperature but not with unemployment. The multiple linear regression analysis results suggest that temperature is the only variable that determines male suicides and explains 51% of their variance. Unemployment fails to contribute significantly to the model. There seems to be a seasonal distribution for attempts with mean rates being higher for the period from May to October and the rates clearly correlate with temperature. The highest mean rates were observed during May and August and the lowest during December and February. Multiple linear regression analysis suggests that temperature also determines the female attempts rate although the explained variable is significant but very low (3-5%)

CONCLUSION

Climate variables and specifically high temperature correlate both with suicide and attempted suicide rates but with a different way between males and females. The climate effect was stronger than the effect of unemployment.

Antidepressant drugs and teenage suicide in Hungary: Time trend and seasonality analysis

OBJECTIVE

The aim of the present study was to analyze the relationship between increasing utilization of antidepressants and lithium, and suicide rate of persons less than 20 years of age in Hungary, with particular regard to seasonal patterns.

METHODS

Time trend analysis was carried out to determine the correlation between antidepressant and lithium prescription patterns in Hungarian persons under age of 20 years as well as seasonal variations within the study period from January 1998 to December 2006.

RESULTS

There was a significant correlation (P = 0.03) between the eight-fold increase in antidepressant + lithium prescriptions and decreasing suicides in young Hungarian people under 20 years of age within the study period. Lithium, selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) and the group of "other antidepressant drugs" rather than nonselective monoamine reuptake inhibitors and monoamine oxidase-A inhibitors were responsible for this association. No significant association could be drawn from seasonal variation with boys (P = 0.964), girls (P = 0.140), or both genders (P = 0.997).

LIMITATION

Ecological study design.

CONCLUSION

Our findings are in good agreement with large-scale ecological studies showing that the beneficial effect of more widely used antidepressants at a given point could appear on the level of suicide rate of the general population even among patients under the age of 20 years.

Development and psychometric testing of the Suicide Caring Competence Scale (SCCS) for family caregivers in Taiwan

Suicide caring competence is important for family caregivers to care their relatives with suicidal tendencies. The purpose of this study was to develop and test the psychometric properties of the Suicide Caring Competence Scale (SCCS) for family caregivers in Taiwan. A 20-item SCCS was tested on 165 family caregivers. Confirmatory factor analysis indicated that five subscales with 19 items best fit the data. The Cronbach's α and test-retest reliability of the SCCS was 0.90 and 0.81, respectively. The SCCS demonstrated acceptable construct validity and reliability. Nurses can use the SCCS to assess the suicide caring competence of family caregivers.

Maximizing the value of mobile health monitoring by avoiding redundant patient reports: prediction of depression-related symptoms and adherence problems in automated health assessment services

Background

Interactive voice response (IVR) calls enhance health systems’ ability to identify health risk factors, thereby enabling targeted clinical follow-up. However, redundant assessments may increase patient dropout and represent a lost opportunity to collect more clinically useful data.

Objective

We determined the extent to which previous IVR assessments predicted subsequent responses among patients with depression diagnoses, potentially obviating the need to repeatedly collect the same information. We also evaluated whether frequent (ie, weekly) IVR assessment attempts were significantly more predictive of patients’ subsequent reports than information collected biweekly or monthly.

Methods

Using data from 1050 IVR assessments for 208 patients with depression diagnoses, we examined the predictability of four IVR-reported outcomes: moderate/severe depressive symptoms (score ≥10 on the PHQ-9), fair/poor general health, poor antidepressant adherence, and days in bed due to poor mental health. We used logistic models with training and test samples to predict patients’ IVR responses based on their five most recent weekly, biweekly, and monthly assessment attempts. The marginal benefit of more frequent assessments was evaluated based on Receiver Operator Characteristic (ROC) curves and statistical comparisons of the area under the curves (AUC).

Results

Patients’ reports about their depressive symptoms and perceived health status were highly predictable based on prior assessment responses. For models predicting moderate/severe depression, the AUC was 0.91 (95% CI 0.89-0.93) when assuming weekly assessment attempts and only slightly less when assuming biweekly assessments (AUC: 0.89; CI 0.87-0.91) or monthly attempts (AUC: 0.89; CI 0.86-0.91). The AUC for models predicting reports of fair/poor health status was similar when weekly assessments were compared with those occurring biweekly (P value for the difference=.11) or monthly (P=.81). Reports of medication adherence problems and days in bed were somewhat less predictable but also showed small differences between assessments attempted weekly, biweekly, and monthly.

Conclusions

The technical feasibility of gathering high frequency health data via IVR may in some instances exceed the clinical benefit of doing so. Predictive analytics could make data gathering more efficient with negligible loss in effectiveness. In particular, weekly or biweekly depressive symptom reports may provide little marginal information regarding how the person is doing relative to collecting that information monthly. The next generation of automated health assessment services should use data mining techniques to avoid redundant assessments and should gather data at the frequency that maximizes the value of the information collected.

Suicide in Hungary-epidemiological and clinical perspectives

Annual suicide rates of Hungary were unexpectedly high in the previous century. In our narrative review, we try to depict, with presentation of the raw data, the main descriptive epidemiological features of the Hungarian suicide scene of the past decades. Accordingly, we present the annual suicide rates of the period mentioned and also data on how they varied by gender, age, urban vs. rural living, seasons, marital status, etc. Furthermore, the overview of trends of other factors that may have influenced suicidal behavior (e.g., alcohol and tobacco consumption, antidepressant prescription, unemployment rate) in the past decades is appended as well. Based on raw data and also on results of the relevant papers of Hungarian suicidology we tried to explain the observable trends of the Hungarian suicide rate. Eventually, we discuss the results, the possibilities, and the future tasks of suicide prevention in Hungary.

Suicide seasonality and antidepressants: a register-based study in Sweden

OBJECTIVE

Seasonality of completed suicides with a peak in spring and early summer is a well-documented finding. The circannual serotonergic functioning is hypothesized to be central in this phenomenon. Antidepressant medications exert their pharmacological action mainly by regulating serotonin. Our aim is to study the amplitude of the seasonal effect among suicide victims positive for different classes of antidepressants or without any antidepressants at the time of death.

METHOD

By using Swedish Registers, 12 448 suicides with forensic data for antidepressive medication and information on in-patient-treated mental disorder were identified during 1992-2003. Seasonality was estimated with a Poisson regression variant of the circular normal distribution of completed suicides.

RESULTS

Higher suicide seasonality was found for individuals treated with selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRIs) compared to those with other antidepressant treatment or without any antidepressant treatment. The finding is more evident for men and violent suicide methods and those without history of in-patient treatment.

CONCLUSION

Our results provide preliminary support for the serotonergic hypothesis of suicide seasonality and raise the question of a possible accentuation of the natural suicide seasonality in patients treated with SSRIs, a hypothesis that warrants further investigation.

Suicide deaths and nonfatal hospital admissions for deliberate self-harm in the United States. Temporality by day of week and month of year

BACKGROUND

No one knows whether the temporality of nonfatal deliberate self-harm in the United States mirrors the temporality of suicide deaths.

AIMS

To analyze day- and month-specific variation in population rates for suicide fatalities and, separately, for hospital admissions for nonfatal deliberate self-harm.

METHODS

For 12 states, we extracted vital statistics data on all suicides (n = 11,429) and hospital discharge data on all nonfatal deliberate self-harm admissions (n = 60,870) occurring in 1997. We used multinomial logistic regression to analyze the significance of day-to-day and month-to-month variations in the occurrence of suicides and nonfatal deliberate self-harm admissions.

RESULTS

Both fatal and nonfatal events had a 6%-10% excess occurrence on Monday and Tuesday and were 5%-13% less likely to occur on Saturdays (p < .05). Males were more likely than females to act on Wednesdays and Saturdays. Nonfatal admission rates were 6% above the average in April and May (p < .05). In contrast, suicide rates were 6% above the average in February and March and 8% below it in November (p < .05).

CONCLUSIONS

Suicides and nonfatal hospital admissions for deliberate self-harm have peaks and troughs on the same days in the United States. In contrast, the monthly patterns for these fatal and nonfatal events are not congruent.

Effects of sunshine on suicide rates

OBJECTIVES

Seasonal spring peaks of suicide are well described in epidemiological studies, but their origin is poorly understood. More recent evidence suggests that this peak may be associated with the increase in the duration of sunshine in spring. We investigated the effect of number of sunshine hours per month on suicide rates in Austria between 1996 and 2006.

METHODS

Suicide data, differentiated by month of suicide, sex, and method of suicide (violent vs nonviolent methods), were provided by Statistics Austria. Data on the average number of sunshine hours per month were calculated from 39 representative meteorological stations (provided by the Austrian Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics). For statistical analysis, analysis of variance tests, Kruskal-Wallis tests, and Pearson correlation tests were used.

RESULTS

A total of 16,673 suicides with a median of 126 ± 19.8 suicides per month occurred in the examined period. A clear seasonal pattern was observed, with suicide frequencies being highest between March and May and lowest between November and January (df = 11, F = 5.2, P < .0001) for men (df = 11, F = 4.9, P < .0001) and women (df = 11, F = 2.4, P = .008). The average number of sunshine hours per month was significantly correlated with the number of suicides among both sexes (r = .43, P < .0001), violent methods (r = .48, P < .0001) but not with nonviolent methods (r = .03, P = .707).

CONCLUSIONS

This study shows that seasonal changes in sunshine account for variations in the number of suicides and especially violent suicides. We propose that sunshine, via interactions with serotonin neurotransmission, may trigger increased impulsivity and promote suicidal acts. However, because of the hypothesis-generating design of this study, more research is needed to further clarify the role of sunshine in triggering neurobiologic changes, which might contribute to suicidal behavior.

Seasonality of suicidal behavior

A seasonal suicide peak in spring is highly replicated, but its specific cause is unknown. We reviewed the literature on suicide risk factors which can be associated with seasonal variation of suicide rates, assessing published articles from 1979 to 2011. Such risk factors include environmental determinants, including physical, chemical, and biological factors. We also summarized the influence of potential demographic and clinical characteristics such as age, gender, month of birth, socioeconomic status, methods of prior suicide attempt, and comorbid psychiatric and medical diseases. Comprehensive evaluation of risk factors which could be linked to the seasonal variation in suicide is important, not only to identify the major driving force for the seasonality of suicide, but also could lead to better suicide prevention in general.

Suicide and seasonality

OBJECTIVE

  Seasonal variation of deaths by suicide offers an important pathway in the study of possible suicide determinants of suicide and consequently suicide prevention.

METHOD

  We conducted a review of the literature on suicide seasonality, assessing articles published between 1979 and 2009.

RESULTS

  The majority of the studies confirm a peak in spring, mainly for men, older individuals, and violent methods of suicide. A secondary peak during autumn is observed. There is no common seasonality pattern for suicide methods. However, there are also certain studies that did not confirm seasonal variation. Inconsistent results with reduced, unchanged, and even increased suicide seasonality have been reported. Aspects on the association between seasonality and suicides are discussed. Except sex, age, and method of suicide, other parameters were taken into account to find more specific characteristics of seasonality in suicides as well. The influence of clinical, bioclimatic, sociodemographic as well as biological factors seems to affect the seasonal variation.

CONCLUSION

  Studies from both the Northern and the Southern hemisphere report a seasonal pattern for suicides. These studies are not only an important source of epidemiological data for suicides but also represent a global effort to uncover hidden parameters of this self-destructive behaviour.

Tobacco consumption and antidepressant use are associated with the rate of completed suicide in Hungary: an ecological study

The suicide rate of Hungary is the highest in the world averaged over the last century but it has shown a very pronounced decrease since 1987. To explore the background of this decrease we investigated the associations between some known suicide-related factors (i.e. tobacco use, antidepressant use and alcohol consumption at the population level) and the suicide rate between 1985 and 2008. The total number of man-hours worked per year by psychiatrists in the outpatient service system and real GDP growth were also monitored in our study. A time series analysis model was constructed to investigate the associations between the above variables and the suicide rate. In the unadjusted model annual tobacco consumption was significantly associated with the suicide rate in a positive manner, while antidepressant use and man-hours were significantly associated with the suicide rate in a negative manner. After adjustment, the associations remained significant only for tobacco consumption and antidepressant use. Neither alcohol consumption nor real GDP growth was associated with the suicide rate in any models. Our results from group-level data confirmed the role of smoking in suicidal behavior previously suggested mainly by studies using individual-level data and also corroborated the results of previous ecological studies concerning the inverse association between antidepressant use and suicide rate. These findings and the results of previous studies - investigating the relationship between smoking and the risk of suicidal behavior at the individual-level - may suggest that programs to prevent tobacco use or to address the widespread recognition and treatment of depression may also prevent suicidality.

Antidepressants and Suicide Risk: A Comprehensive Overview

The annual worldwide suicide rate currently averages approximately 13 per 100,000 individuals per year (0.013% per year), with higher average rates for men than for women in all but a few countries, very low rates in children, and relatively high rates in elderly men. Suicide rates vary markedly between countries, reflecting in part differences in case-identification and reporting procedures. Rates of attempted suicide in the general population average 20-30 times higher than rates of completed suicide, but are probably under-reported. Research on the relationship between pharmacotherapy and suicidal behavior was rare until a decade ago. Most ecological studies and large clinical studies have found that a general reduction in suicide rates is significantly correlated with higher rates of prescribing modern antidepressants. However, ecological, cohort and case-control studies and data from brief, randomized, controlled trials in patients with acute affective disorders have found increases, particularly in young patients and particularly for the risk of suicide attempts, as well as increases in suicidal ideation in young patients. whether antidepressants are associated with specific aspects of suicidality (e.g., higher rates of completed suicide, attempted suicide and suicidal ideation) in younger patients with major affective disorders remains a highly controversial question. In light of this gap this paper analyzes research on the relationship between suicidality and antidepressant treatment.

Season of birth is significantly associated with the risk of completed suicide

BACKGROUND

Previous studies have provided somewhat inconsistent results about the effects of season of birth on the risk of suicidal behavior. Therefore, we decided to investigate this question in a large sample of suicide completers.

METHODS

We determined the season of birth-associated risk of completed suicide between the years 1970 and 2008 among all individuals who were born in the area of today's Hungary between 1930 and 1939, 1941 and 1942, and 1944 and 1969.

RESULTS

The final sample of participants included around six and a half million people. About 80,000 completed suicides occurred among participants during the period investigated (the number of suicide completers in our study greatly exceeds the number of suicide completers in any previous studies). A significantly (p < .05) elevated risk of completed suicide was found among those individuals who were born in the high-risk period (spring and summer). Quantitatively, the biggest increase (7.6% [95% confidence interval: 5.4-9.9]) in suicide risk was detected among those who were born in July compared with the average risk of suicide in the population investigated. The associations between season of birth and the risk of completed suicide were stronger among male subjects than among female subjects and among those who committed suicide using violent methods than among those who chose nonviolent methods.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results from a large sample of suicide completers from Hungary--a country with one of the highest suicide rates in the world over the last century--strongly support the concept that the season of birth is significantly associated with the risk of completed suicide.

Internet monitoring of suicide risk in the population

BACKGROUND

Public health statistics are often released too late to affect reversible societal factors affecting suicide. Increasingly, internet search volume is used in epidemiology, but this method has not yet been applied to suicide.

METHODS

Google internet search engine activity for suicide-related terms from the years 2004-2009 was measured and correlated to available suicide and intentional self-injury data from the Centers of Disease Control (CDC).

RESULTS

Google search volumes correlated to CDC statistics for both suicide and self-injury, but in patterns that differed by age. Whereas internet search activity was negatively correlated to the suicide rate in the general population, it was positively correlated to both intentional self-injury and completed suicides among youth.

CONCLUSIONS

Monitoring changes in search volumes on the internet may provide an early indicator of suicide risk within the population. Furthermore, youth may utilize the internet in ways that differ from the general population with respect to suicide.