PLANT DIVERSITY AND ENDEMISM IN THE CALIFORNIA FLORISTIC PROVINCE

Will there be water? Climate change, housing needs, and future water demand in California

Climate change in California is expected to alter future water availability, impacting water supplies needed to support future housing growth and agriculture demand. In groundwater-dependent regions like California's Central Coast, new land-use related water demand and decreasing recharge is already stressing depleted groundwater basins. We developed a spatially explicit state-and-transition simulation model that integrates climate, land-use change, water demand, and groundwater gain-loss to examine the impact of future climate and land use change on groundwater balance and water demand in five counties along the Central Coast from 2010 to 2060. The model incorporated downscaled groundwater recharge projections based on a Warm/Wet and a Hot/Dry climate future from a spatially explicit hydrological process-based model. Two urbanization projections from a parcel-based, regional urban growth model representing 1) recent historical and 2) state-mandated housing growth projections were used as alternative spatial targets for future urban growth. Agricultural projections were based on recent historical trends from remote sensing data. Annual projected changes in groundwater balance were calculated as the difference between land-use related water demand, based on historical estimates, and climate-driven recharge plus agriculture return flows. Results indicate that future changes in climate-driven groundwater recharge, coupled with cumulative increases in agricultural water demand, result in overall declines in future groundwater balance, with a Hot/Dry future resulting in cumulative groundwater decline in all but Santa Cruz County. Cumulative declines by 2060 are especially prominent in San Luis Obispo (-2.9 to -5.1 Bm3) and Monterey counties (-6.5 to -8.7 Bm3), despite limited changes in agricultural water demand over the model period. These two counties show declining groundwater reserves in a Warm/Wet future as well, while San Benito and Santa Barbara County barely reach equilibrium. These results suggest future groundwater supplies may not be able to keep pace with regional demand and declining climate-driven recharge, resulting in a potential reduction in water security in the region. However, our county-scale projections showed new housing and associated water demand does not conflict with California's groundwater sustainability goals. Rather, future climate coupled with increasing agricultural groundwater demand may reduce water security in some counties, potentially limiting available groundwater supplies for new housing.

Climate change and California's terrestrial biodiversity

In this review and synthesis, we argue that California is an important test case for the nation and world because terrestrial biodiversity is very high, present and anticipated threats to biodiversity from climate change and other interacting stressors are severe, and innovative approaches to protecting biodiversity in the context of climate change are being developed and tested. We first review salient dimensions of California's terrestrial physical, biological, and human diversity. Next, we examine four facets of the threat to their sustainability of these dimensions posed by climate change: direct impacts, illustrated by a new analysis of shifting diversity hotspots for plants; interactive effects involving invasive species, land-use change, and other stressors; the impacts of changing fire regimes; and the impacts of land-based renewable energy development. We examine recent policy responses in each of these areas, representing attempts to better protect biodiversity while advancing climate adaptation and mitigation. We conclude that California's ambitious 30 × 30 Initiative and its efforts to harmonize biodiversity conservation with renewable energy development are important areas of progress. Adapting traditional suppression-oriented fire policies to the reality of new fire regimes is an area in which much progress remains to be made.

Climate resilience through ecocultural stewardship

The climate crisis has exacerbated many ecological and cultural problems including wildfire and drought vulnerability, biodiversity declines, and social justice and equity. While there are many concepts of social and ecological resilience, the exemplar practices of Indigenous stewardship are recognized in having sustained Indigenous peoples and their countries for millennia and past climate change events. California has been at the crossroads of many of these issues, and the historic and current contributions of Indigenous peoples to addressing these provide an excellent study of ecocultural stewardship and leadership by Indigenous peoples to achieve climate resilience.

The importance of geography in forecasting future fire patterns under climate change

An increasing amount of California's landscape has burned in wildfires in recent decades, in conjunction with increasing temperatures and vapor pressure deficit due to climate change. As the wildland-urban interface expands, more people are exposed to and harmed by these extensive wildfires, which are also eroding the resilience of terrestrial ecosystems. With future wildfire activity expected to increase, there is an urgent demand for solutions that sustain healthy ecosystems and wildfire-resilient human communities. Those who manage disaster response, landscapes, and biodiversity rely on mapped projections of how fire activity may respond to climate change and other human factors. California wildfire is complex, however, and climate-fire relationships vary across the state. Given known geographical variability in drivers of fire activity, we asked whether the geographical extent of fire models used to create these projections may alter the interpretation of predictions. We compared models of fire occurrence spanning the entire state of California to models developed for individual ecoregions and then projected end-of-century future fire patterns under climate change scenarios. We trained a Maximum Entropy model with fire records and hydroclimatological variables from recent decades (1981 to 2010) as well as topographic and human infrastructure predictors. Results showed substantial variation in predictors of fire probability and mapped future projections of fire depending upon geographical extents of model boundaries. Only the ecoregion models, accounting for the unique patterns of vegetation, climate, and human infrastructure, projected an increase in fire in most forested regions of the state, congruent with predictions from other studies.

Phylogenomic perspectives on speciation and reproductive isolation in a North American biodiversity hotspot: an example using California sages (Salvia subgenus Audibertia: Lamiaceae)

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The California Floristic Province (CA-FP) is the most species-rich region of North America north of Mexico. One of several proposed hypotheses explaining the exceptional diversity of the region is that the CA-FP harbours myriad recently diverged lineages with nascent reproductive barriers. Salvia subgenus Audibertia is a conspicuous element of the CA-FP, with multiple sympatric and compatible species.

METHODS

Using 305 nuclear loci and both organellar genomes, we reconstruct species trees, examine genomic discordance, conduct divergence-time estimation, and analyse contemporaneous patterns of gene flow and mechanical reproductive isolation.

KEY RESULTS

Despite strong genomic discordance, an underlying bifurcating tree is supported. Organellar genomes capture additional introgression events not detected in the nuclear genome. Most interfertility is found within clades, indicating that reproductive barriers arise with increasing genetic divergence. Species are generally not mechanically isolated, suggesting that it is unlikely to be the primary factor leading to reproductive isolation.

CONCLUSIONS

Rapid, recent speciation with some interspecific gene flow in conjunction with the onset of a Mediterranean-like climate is the underlying cause of extant diversity in Salvia subgenus Audibertia. Speciation has largely not been facilitated by gene flow. Its signal in the nuclear genome seems to mostly be erased by backcrossing, but organellar genomes each capture different instances of historical gene flow, probably characteristic of many CA-FP lineages. Mechanical reproductive isolation appears to be only part of a mosaic of factors limiting gene flow.

Broken Ring Speciation in California Mygalomorph Spiders (Nemesiidae, Calisoga)

AbstractIdealized ring species, with approximately continuous gene flow around a geographic barrier but singular reproductive isolation at a ring terminus, are rare in nature. A broken ring species model preserves the geographic setting and fundamental features of an idealized model but accommodates varying degrees of gene flow restriction over complex landscapes through evolutionary time. Here we examine broken ring species dynamics in Calisoga spiders, which, like the classic ring species Ensatina salamanders, are distributed around the Central Valley of California. Using nuclear and mitogenomic data, we test key predictions of common ancestry, ringlike biogeography, biogeographic timing, population connectivity, and terminal overlap. We show that a ring complex of populations shares a single common ancestor, and from an ancestral area in the Sierra Nevada mountains, two distributional and phylogenomic arms encircle the Central Valley. Isolation by distance occurs along these distributional arms, although gene flow restriction is also evident. Where divergent lineages meet in the South Coast Ranges, we find rare lineage sympatry, without evidence for nuclear gene flow and with clear evidence for morphological and ecological divergence. We discuss general insights provided by broken ring species and how such a model could be explored and extended in other systems and future studies.

Using unstructured crowd-sourced data to evaluate urban tolerance of terrestrial native animal species within a California Mega-City

In response to biodiversity loss and biotic community homogenization in urbanized landscapes, there are increasing efforts to conserve and increase biodiversity within urban areas. Accordingly, around the world, previously extirpated species are (re)colonizing and otherwise infiltrating urban landscapes, while other species are disappearing from these landscapes. Tracking the occurrence of traditionally urban intolerant species and loss of traditionally urban tolerant species should be a management goal of urban areas, but we generally lack tools to study this phenomenon. To address this gap, we first used species' occurrences from iNaturalist, a large collaborative dataset of species observations, to calculate an urban association index (UAI) for 967 native animal species that occur in the city of Los Angeles. On average, the occurrence of native species was negatively associated with our composite measure of urban intensity, with the exception of snails and slugs, which instead occur more frequently in areas of increased urban intensity. Next, we assessed 8,348 0.25 x 0.25 mile grids across the City of Los Angeles to determine the average grid-level UAI scores (i.e., a summary of the UAIs present in a grid cell, which we term Community Urban Tolerance Index or CUTI). We found that areas of higher urban intensity host more urban tolerant species, but also that taxonomic groups differ in their aggregate tolerance of urban areas, and that spatial patterns of tolerance vary between groups. The framework established here has been designed to be iteratively reevaluated by city managers of Los Angeles in order to track the progress of initiatives to preserve and encourage urban biodiversity, but can be rescaled to sample different regions within the city or different cities altogether to provide a valuable tool for city managers globally.

Conservation Genetics of the Endangered Lompoc Yerba Santa (Eriodictyon capitatum Eastw., Namaceae), including Phylogenomic Insights into the Evolution of Eriodictyon

Eriodictyon capitatum (Namaceae) is a narrowly distributed shrub endemic to western Santa Barbara County, where it is known from only 10 extant California Natural Diversity Database element occurrences (EOs). Owing to low numbers of plants in nature, a limited overall extent, and multiple current threats, E. capitatum is listed as Endangered under the Federal Endangered Species Act and as Rare under the California Native Plant Protection Act. In the present study, high-throughput DNA sequence data were analyzed to investigate genetic diversity within and among all accessible EOs; to determine the extent of genetic isolation among EOs; to examine clonality within EOs; and to examine the taxonomic circumscriptions of E. capitatum, E. altissimum, E. angustifolium, and E. californicum through phylogenomic analysis. Population genetic analyses of E. capitatum reveal a pattern of strong genetic differentiation by location/EO. The clonality assessment shows that certain small EOs may support relatively few multilocus genotypes. The phylogenomic analyses strongly support the present-day taxonomic circumscriptions of both E. altissimum and E. capitatum, showing them to be reciprocally monophyletic and sister with strong support. Taken together, these results paint a picture of an evolutionarily and morphologically distinct species known from relatively few, genetically isolated stations.

Estimates of biomass reductions of ozone sensitive herbaceous plants in California

Exposure to tropospheric ozone pollution impairs photosynthesis and growth in plants and this can have consequences for ecosystems. However, exposure-response research in the United States (U.S.) has historically focused on trees and crops, and less attention has been given to non-crop herbaceous species. We combined U.S. Environmental Protection Agency ozone monitoring data from the entirety of 2016 with published exposure-response relationships from controlled exposure experiments for twenty herbaceous plant species occurring in California. The U.S. Department of Agriculture PLANTS database was used to identify county-level occurrence data of these plant species. A kriged ozone exposure surface for 2016 was generated using data from monitoring stations in California and surrounding states, using Accumulated Ozone exposure over a Threshold of 40 ppb (AOT40) as an exposure metric. County-wide ozone exposure estimations were then combined with published exposure response functions for focal plants, and maps were created to estimate ozone-induced growth losses in the counties where the plants occur. Plant species had estimated annual growth losses from <1 % to >20 % based on exposure levels and sensitivity. Of the 20 species, 17 had predicted biomass loss >5 % in at least one county, emphasizing the vulnerability of herbaceous species at recent ozone concentrations. Butte, Nevada, Plumas, San Luis Obispo, and Shasta Counties, an area of about 31,652 km2, had the highest number of species (6) with >10 % estimated biomass loss, the loss threshold for European critical levels. White clover (Trifolium repens L.) was one of the most affected species with more than an estimated 10 % annual estimated growth loss over 59 % of the state. Overall, these estimated growth losses demonstrate potential for shifts in plant communities and negative effects on ecosystems. This study addresses critical policy needs for risk assessments on herbaceous species in a single year of ozone exposure.

Capturing patterns of evolutionary relatedness with reflectance spectra to model and monitor biodiversity

Biogeographic history can set initial conditions for vegetation community assemblages that determine their climate responses at broad extents that land surface models attempt to forecast. Numerous studies have indicated that evolutionarily conserved biochemical, structural, and other functional attributes of plant species are captured in visible-to-short wavelength infrared, 400 to 2,500 nm, reflectance properties of vegetation. Here, we present a remotely sensed phylogenetic clustering and an evolutionary framework to accommodate spectra, distributions, and traits. Spectral properties evolutionarily conserved in plants provide the opportunity to spatially aggregate species into lineages (interpreted as "lineage functional types" or LFT) with improved classification accuracy. In this study, we use Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer data from the 2013 Hyperspectral Infrared Imager campaign over the southern Sierra Nevada, California flight box, to investigate the potential for incorporating evolutionary thinking into landcover classification. We link the airborne hyperspectral data with vegetation plot data from 1372 surveys and a phylogeny representing 1,572 species. Despite temporal and spatial differences in our training data, we classified plant lineages with moderate reliability (Kappa = 0.76) and overall classification accuracy of 80.9%. We present an assessment of classification error and detail study limitations to facilitate future LFT development. This work demonstrates that lineage-based methods may be a promising way to leverage the new-generation high-resolution and high return-interval hyperspectral data planned for the forthcoming satellite missions with sparsely sampled existing ground-based ecological data.

Phylogeography of an endemic California silkmoth genus suggests the importance of an unheralded central California province in generating regional endemic biodiversity

The California Floristic province is a biodiversity hotspot. Understanding the phylogeographic patterns that exist in this diverse region is essential to understanding its evolution and for guiding conservation efforts. Calosaturnia is a charismatic silkmoth genus endemic to large portions of the region with three described species, C. mendocino, C. walterorum, and C. albofasciata. We sampled all three species from across their ranges, sequenced 1463 bp of mitochondrial COI and 1941 bp of nuclear DNA from three genes, and reconstructed phylogenetic relationships and estimated divergence times within the lineages. All three species show pronounced evidence of isolation and, in two cases, secondary reconnection. An unexpected monophyletic mtDNA lineage was found in the Central Coast region, in a region thought to represent an intergrade between C. mendocino and C. walterorum. Our genetic data also significantly revise previous hypotheses as to which species occur in which regions, suggesting that historical ecological changes around four Ma ago isolated some lineages, and a secondary isolation event two Ma ago led to isolation of populations both in the Central Coast region and the southern Sierra Nevada. Our results add to a currently under-appreciated pattern suggesting that coastal Central California is not a transition zone between Northern and Southern California Floristic Province faunas but rather its own unique, periodically isolated, biogeographic region. They also suggest cryptic diversity may be present in many other currently unrecognized groups. Additional research should focus on this central California region because many species may be highly restricted in range and in need of conservation attention.

Rangeland Land-Sharing, Livestock Grazing’s Role in the Conservation of Imperiled Species

Land sharing, conserving biodiversity on productive lands, is globally promoted. Much of the land highest in California’s biodiversity is used for livestock production, providing an opportunity to understand land sharing and species conservation. A review of United States Fish and Wildlife Service listing documents for 282 threatened and endangered species in California reveals a complex and varied relationship between grazing and conservation. According to these documents, 51% or 143 of the federally listed animal and plant species are found in habitats with grazing. While livestock grazing is a stated threat to 73% (104) of the species sharing habitat with livestock, 59% (85) of the species are said to be positively influenced, with considerable overlap between species both threatened and benefitting from grazing. Grazing is credited with benefiting flowering plants, mammals, insects, reptiles, amphibians, fish, crustaceans, and bird species by managing the state’s novel vegetation and providing and maintaining habitat structure and ecosystem functions. Benefits are noted for species across all of California’s terrestrial habitats, except alpine, and for some aquatic habitats, including riparian, wetlands, and temporary pools. Managed grazing can combat anthropomorphic threats, such as invasive species and nitrogen deposition, supporting conservation-reliant species as part of land sharing.

Two cryptic species of California mustard within Caulanthus lasiophyllus

PREMISE

Cryptic species are evolutionarily distinct lineages lacking distinguishing morphological traits. Hidden diversity may be lurking in widespread species whose distributions cross phylogeographic barriers. This study investigates molecular and morphological variation in the widely distributed Caulanthus lasiophyllus (Brassicaceae) in comparison to its closest relatives.

METHODS

Fifty-two individuals of C. lasiophyllus from across the species' range were sequenced for the nuclear ribosomal internal transcribed spacer region (ITS) and the chloroplast trnL-F region. A subset of these samples were examined for the chloroplast ndhF gene. All 52 individuals were scored for 13 morphological traits, as well as monthly and annual climate conditions at the collection locality. Morphological and molecular results are compared with the closest relatives-C. anceps and C. flavescens-in the "Guillenia Clade." To test for polyploidy, genome size estimates were made for four populations.

RESULTS

Caulanthus lasiophyllus consists of two distinct lineages separated by eight ITS differences-eight times more variation than what distinguishes C. anceps and C. flavescens. Fewer variable sites were detected in trnL-F and ndhF regions, yet these data are consistent with the ITS results. The two lineages of C. lasiophyllus are geographically and climatically distinct; yet morphologically overlapping. Their genome sizes are not consistently different.

CONCLUSIONS

Two cryptic species within C. lasiophyllus are distinguished at the molecular, geographic, and climatic scales. They have similar genome sizes and are morphologically broadly overlapping, but an ephemeral basal leaf character may help distinguish the species.

Climate and plant community diversity in space and time

Climate strongly shapes plant diversity over large spatial scales, with relatively warm and wet (benign, productive) regions supporting greater numbers of species. Unresolved aspects of this relationship include what causes it, whether it permeates to community diversity at smaller spatial scales, whether it is accompanied by patterns in functional and phylogenetic diversity as some hypotheses predict, and whether it is paralleled by climate-driven changes in diversity over time. Here, studies of Californian plants are reviewed and new analyses are conducted to synthesize climate-diversity relationships in space and time. Across spatial scales and organizational levels, plant diversity is maximized in more productive (wetter) climates, and these consistent spatial relationships are mirrored in losses of taxonomic, functional, and phylogenetic diversity over time during a recent climatic drying trend. These results support the tolerance and climatic niche conservatism hypotheses for climate-diversity relationships, and suggest there is some predictability to future changes in diversity in water-limited climates.

Early life history responses and phenotypic shifts in a rare endemic plant responding to climate change

Changes in species ranges are anticipated with climate change, where in alpine settings, fragmentation and contraction are likely. This is especially true in high altitude biodiversity hotspots, where warmer growing seasons and increased drought events may negatively impact populations by limiting regeneration. Here, we test for high-altitude species responses to the interactive effects of warming and drought in Heterotheca brandegeei, a perennial cushion plant endemic to alpine outcroppings in Sierra de San Pedro Mártir National Park, Baja California, México. We exposed H. brandegeei seedlings to experimental warming and drought conditions to document early life history responses and the species ability to tolerate climate change. Drought negatively influenced seedling growth, with overall reductions in above- and belowground biomass. Warming and drought each led to substantial reductions in leaf development. At the same time, individuals maintained high specific leaf area and carbon investment in leaves across treatments, suggesting that existing phenotypic variation within populations may be high enough to withstand climate change. However, warming and drought interacted to negatively influence leaf-level water-use efficiency (WUE). Seedling mortality rates were nearly three times higher in warming and drought treatments, suggesting bleak prospects for H. brandegeei populations in future climate conditions. Overall, our results suggest H. brandegeei populations may experience substantial declines under future warmer and drier conditions. Some individuals may be able to establish, albeit, as smaller, more stressed plants. These results further suggest that warming alone may not be as consequential to populations as drought will be in this already water-limited system.

Local patterns of diversity in California northern coastal scrub

Within global biodiversity hotspots such as the California Floristic Province, local patterns of diversity must be better understood to prioritize conservation for the greatest number of species. This study investigates patterns of vascular plant diversity in relation to coast-inland environmental gradients in the shrublands of Central California known as northern coastal scrub. We sampled coastal shrublands of the San Francisco Bay Area at coastal and inland locations, modeled fine-scale climatic variables, and developed an index for local exposure to maritime salts. We compared diversity, composition, and structure of the coastal and inland plots using indirect gradient analysis and estimated species accumulation using rarefaction curves. Coastal plots were significantly higher in alpha, beta, and gamma diversity than inland plots. Plant diversity (effective species number) in coastal plots was 2.1 times greater than inland plots, and beta diversity was 1.9 times greater. Estimated richness by rarefaction was 2.05 times greater in coastal sites than inland sites. Salt deposition and water availability were the abiotic process most strongly correlated with increased maritime plant diversity and compositional differences. Stands of northern coastal scrub on the immediate coast with higher maritime influence exhibit markedly higher plant diversity than most interior stands, paralleling previous work in other vegetation types in this region. These studies suggest that the California coastline deserves special consideration for botanical conservation. Fine-scale climatic models of cloud frequency, water availability, and the salt deposition index presented here can be used to define priority areas for plant conservation in California and other coastal regions worldwide.

Ultramafic geoecology of South and Southeast Asia

Globally, ultramafic outcrops are renowned for hosting floras with high levels of endemism, including plants with specialised adaptations such as nickel or manganese hyperaccumulation. Soils derived from ultramafic regoliths are generally nutrient-deficient, have major cation imbalances, and have concomitant high concentrations of potentially phytotoxic trace elements, especially nickel. The South and Southeast Asian region has the largest surface occurrences of ultramafic regoliths in the world, but the geoecology of these outcrops is still poorly studied despite severe conservation threats. Due to the paucity of systematic plant collections in many areas and the lack of georeferenced herbarium records and databased information, it is not possible to determine the distribution of species, levels of endemism, and the species most threatened. However, site-specific studies provide insights to the ultramafic geoecology of several locations in South and Southeast Asia. The geoecology of tropical ultramafic regions differs substantially from those in temperate regions in that the vegetation at lower elevations is generally tall forest with relatively low levels of endemism. On ultramafic mountaintops, where the combined forces of edaphic and climatic factors intersect, obligate ultramafic species and hyperendemics often occur. Forest clearing, agricultural development, mining, and climate change-related stressors have contributed to rapid and unprecedented loss of ultramafic-associated habitats in the region. The geoecology of the large ultramafic outcrops of Indonesia's Sulawesi, Obi and Halmahera, and many other smaller outcrops in South and Southeast Asia, remains largely unexplored, and should be prioritised for study and conservation.

Species richness and endemism in the native flora of California

PREMISE OF THE STUDY

California's vascular flora is the most diverse and threatened in temperate North America. Previous studies of spatial patterns of Californian plant diversity have been limited by traditional metrics, non-uniform geographic units, and distributional data derived from floristic descriptions for only a subset of species.

METHODS

We revisited patterns of sampling intensity, species richness, and relative endemism in California based on equal-area spatial units, the full vascular flora, and specimen-based distributional data. We estimated richness, weighted endemism (inverse range-weighting of species), and corrected weighted endemism (weighted endemism corrected for richness), and performed a randomization test for significantly high endemism.

KEY RESULTS

Possible biases in herbarium data do not obscure patterns of high richness and endemism at the spatial resolution studied. High species richness was sometimes associated with significantly high endemism (e.g., Klamath Ranges) but often not. In Stebbins and Major's (1965) main endemism hotspot, Southwestern California, species richness is high across much of the Peninsular and Transverse ranges but significantly high endemism is mostly localized to the Santa Rosa and San Bernardino mountains. In contrast, species richness is low in the Channel Islands, where endemism is significantly high, as also found for much of the Death Valley region.

CONCLUSIONS

Measures of taxonomic richness, even with greater weighting of range-restricted taxa, are insufficient for identifying areas of significantly high endemism that warrant conservation attention. Differences between our findings and those in previous studies appear to mostly reflect the source and scale of distributional data, and recent analytical refinements.

Population-level genetic variation and climate change in a biodiversity hotspot

INTRODUCTION

Estimated future climate scenarios can be used to predict where hotspots of endemism may occur over the next century, but life history, ecological and genetic traits will be important in informing the varying responses within myriad taxa. Essential to predicting the consequences of climate change to individual species will be an understanding of the factors that drive genetic structure within and among populations. Here, I review the factors that influence the genetic structure of plant species in California, but are applicable elsewhere; existing levels of genetic variation, life history and ecological characteristics will affect the ability of an individual taxon to persist in the presence of anthropogenic change.

FACTORS INFLUENCING THE DISTRIBUTION OF GENETIC VARIATION

Persistence in the face of climate change is likely determined by life history characteristics: dispersal ability, generation time, reproductive ability, degree of habitat specialization, plant-insect interactions, existing genetic diversity and availability of habitat or migration corridors. Existing levels of genetic diversity in plant populations vary based on a number of evolutionary scenarios that include endemism, expansion since the last glacial maximum, breeding system and current range sizes.

REGIONAL PRIORITIES AND EXAMPLES

A number of well-documented examples are provided from the California Floristic Province. Some predictions can be made for the responses of plant taxa to rapid environmental changes based on geographic position, evolutionary history, existing genetic variation, and ecological amplitude.

CONCLUSIONS, SOLUTIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

The prediction of how species will respond to climate change will require a synthesis drawing from population genetics, geography, palaeontology and ecology. The important integration of the historical factors that have shaped the distribution and existing genetic structure of California's plant taxa will enable us to predict and prioritize the conservation of species and areas most likely to be impacted by rapid climate change, human disturbance and invasive species.