Remote sensing of particulate pollution from space: have we reached the promised land?

Trend-attribute forecasting of hourly PM2.5 trends in fifteen cities of Central England applying optimized machine learning feature selection

Recorded particulate matter (PM2.5) hourly trends are compared for fifteen urban recording sites distributed across central England for the period 2018 to 2022. They include 10 urban-background and five urban-traffic (roadside) sites with some located within the same urban area. The sites all show consistent background and peak distributions with mean annual values and standard deviations higher for 2018 and 2019 than for 2020 to 2022. The objective of this study is to demonstrate that trend attributes extracted from hourly recorded univariate PM2.5 trends at these sites can be used to provide reliable short-term hourly predictions and provide valuable insight into the regional variations in the recorded trends. Fifteen trend attributes extracted from the prior 12 h (t-1 to t-12) of recorded PM2.5 data were compiled and used as input to four supervised machine learning models (SML) to forecast PM2.5 concentrations up to 13 h ahead (t0 to t+12). All recording sites delivered forecasts with similar ranges of error levels for specific hours ahead which are consistent with their PM2.5 recorded ranges. Forecasting results for four representative sites are presented in detail using models trained and cross-validated with 2020 and 2021 hourly data to forecast 2021 and 2022 hourly data, respectively. A novel optimized feature selection procedure using a suite of five optimizers is used to improve the efficiency of the forecasting models. The LASSO and support vector regression models generate the best and most generalizable hourly PM2.5 forecasts from trained and validated SML models with mean average error (MAE) of between ∼1 and ∼3 μg/m3 for t0 to t+3 h ahead. A novel overfitting indicator, exploiting the cross-validation mean values, demonstrates that these two models are not affected by overfitting. Forecasts for t+6 to t+12 h forward generate higher MAE values between ∼3 and ∼4 μg/m3 due to their tendency to underestimate some of the extreme PM2.5 peaks. These findings indicate that further model refinements are required to generate more reliable short-term predictions for the t+6 to t+24 h ahead.

Estimation of PM2.5 using high-resolution satellite data and its mortality risk in an area of Iran

Satellite-based exposure of fine particulate matters has been seldom used as a predictor of mortality. PM2.5 was predicted using Aerosol Optical Depths (AOD) through a two-stage regression model. The predicted PM2.5 was corrected for the bias using two approaches. We estimated the impact by two different scenarios of PM2.5 in the model. We statistically found different distributions of the predicted PM2.5 over the region. Compared to the reference value (5 µg/m3), 90th and 95th percentiles had significant adverse effect on total mortality (RR 90th percentile:1.45; CI 95%: 1.08-1.95 and RR 95th percentile:1.53; CI 95%: 1.11-2.1). Nearly 1050 deaths were attributed to any range of the air pollution (unhealthy range), of which more than half were attributed to high concentration range. Given the adverse effect of extreme values compared to the both scenarios, more efforts are suggested to define local-specific reference values and preventive strategies.

A novel approach for forecasting PM2.5 pollution in Delhi using CATALYST

Air pollution is one of the main environmental issues in densely populated urban areas like Delhi. Predictions of the PM2.5 concentration must be accurate for pollution reduction strategies and policy actions to succeed. This research article presents a novel approach for forecasting PM2.5 pollution in Delhi by combining a pre-trained CNN model with a transformer-based model called CATALYST (Convolutional and Transformer model for Air Quality Forecasting). This proposed strategy uses a mixture of the two models. To derive attributes of the PM2.5 timeline of data, a pre-existing CNN model is utilized to transform the data into visual representations, which are analyzed subsequently. The CATALYST model is trained to predict future PM2.5 pollution levels using a sliding window training approach on extracted features. The model is utilized for analyzing temporal dependencies in PM2.5 time-series data. This model incorporates the advancements in the transformer-based architecture initially designed for natural language processing applications. CATALYST combines positional encoding with the Transformer architecture to capture intricate patterns and variations resulting from diverse meteorological, geographical, and anthropogenic factors. In addition, an innovative approach is suggested for building input-output couples, intending to address the problem of missing or partial data in environmental time-series datasets while ensuring that all training data blocks are comprehensive. On a PM2.5 dataset, we analyze the proposed CATALYST model and compare its performance with other standard time-series forecasting approaches, such as ARIMA and LSTM. The outcomes of the experiments demonstrate that the suggested model works better than conventional methods and is a potential strategy for accurately forecasting PM2.5 pollution. The applicability of CATALYST to real-world scenarios can be tested by running more experiments on real-world datasets. This can help develop efficient pollution mitigation measures, impacting public health and environmental sustainability.

Application of machine learning (individual vs stacking) models on MERRA-2 data to predict surface PM2.5 concentrations over India

The spatial coverage of PM2.5 monitoring is non-uniform across India due to the limited number of ground monitoring stations. Alternatively, Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2), is an atmospheric reanalysis data used for estimating PM2.5. MERRA-2 does not explicitly measure PM2.5 but rather follows an empirical model. MERRA-2 data were spatiotemporally collocated with ground observation for validation across India. Significant underestimation in MERRA-2 prediction of PM2.5 was observed over many monitoring stations ranging from -20 to 60 μg m-3. The utility of Machine Learning (ML) models to overcome this challenge was assessed. MERRA-2 aerosol and meteorological parameters were the input features used to train and test the individual ML models and compare them with the stacking technique. Initially, with 10% of randomly selected data, individual model performance was assessed to identify the best model. XGBoost (XGB) was the best model (r2 = 0.73) compared to Random Forest (RF) and LightGBM (LGBM). Stacking was then applied by keeping XGB as a meta-regressor. Stacked model results (r2 = 0.77) outperformed the best standalone estimate of XGB. Stacking technique was used to predict hourly and daily PM2.5 in different regions across India and each monitoring station. The eastern region exhibited the best hourly prediction (r2 = 0.80) and substantial reduction in Mean Bias (MB = -0.03 μg m-3), followed by the northern region (r2 = 0.63 and MB = -0.10 μg m-3), which showed better output due to the frequent observation of PM2.5 >100 μg m-3. Due to sparse data availability to train the ML models, the lowest performance was for the central region (r2 = 0.46 and MB = -0.60 μg m-3). Overall, India's PM2.5 prediction was good on an hourly basis compared to a daily basis using the ML stacking technique.

Nowcasting Applications of Geostationary Satellite Hourly Surface PM2.5 Data

The mass concentration of fine particulate matter (PM2.5; diameters less than 2.5 μm) estimated from geostationary satellite aerosol optical depth (AOD) data can supplement the network of ground monitors with high temporal (hourly) resolution. Estimates of PM2.5 over the United States (US) were derived from NOAA's operational geostationary satellites Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) AOD data using a geographically weighted regression with hourly and daily temporal resolution. Validation versus ground observations shows a mean bias of -21.4% and -15.3% for hourly and daily PM2.5 estimates, respectively, for concentrations ranging from 0 to 1000 μg/m3. Because satellites only observe AOD in the daytime, the relation between observed daytime PM2.5 and daily mean PM2.5 was evaluated using ground measurements; PM2.5 estimated from ABI AODs were also examined to study this relationship. The ground measurements show that daytime mean PM2.5 has good correlation (r > 0.8) with daily mean PM2.5 in most areas of the US, but with pronounced differences in the western US due to temporal variations caused by wildfire smoke; the relation between the daytime and daily PM2.5 estimated from the ABI AODs has a similar pattern. While daily or daytime estimated PM2.5 provides exposure information in the context of the PM2.5 standard (> 35 μg/m3), the hourly estimates of PM2.5 used in Nowcasting show promise for alerts and warnings of harmful air quality. The geostationary satellite based PM2.5 estimates inform the public of harmful air quality ten times more than standard ground observations (1.8 vs. 0.17 million people per hour).

Analysis and Variation of the Maiac Aerosol Optical Depth in Underexplored Urbanized Area of National Capital Region, India

Aerosol monitoring is the emerging application field of satellite remote sensing. As a satellite-based indicator of aerosol concentration, aerosol optical depth (AOD) can aid in assessing the crucial effects of aerosols on the global environment. Among various satellite-based aerosol product, Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Collection 6 (C6), Multiangle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC) aerosol product (1 km resolution) has still untapped potential in Indian regions. Considering the importance of regional validation of such high-resolution aerosol product, the present study attempts to fill this gap by validating MAIAC aerosol estimates (AODMAIAC) in highly polluted districts (Faridabad, Ghaziabad, Gautam Budh Nagar, Gurugram) of National Capital Region (NCR) with heavy aerosol loading using limited AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) observations obtained from AERONET sites at Amity University (AU) and Gual Pahari (GP). Such evaluation of satellite-retrieved aerosol product with ground data confirms its practicality based on retrieval errors (Expected Error (EE) values (EE = 0.05 + 15 %*AOD) (EE: 78.85 % at AU, 73.58 % at GP), root mean square error (RMSE) values (RMSE: 0.15 at AU, 0.24 at GP), and correlation coefficient (R) values (R: 0.86 at AU, 0.73 at GP). The seasonal variation in AOD over the study area from 2010-2019 reveals increasing trend of AOD in the monsoon and post-monsoon season due to natural and anthropogenic factors. In addition to contributing to a holistic assessment of MAIAC aerosol estimates as a recent, high-resolution aerosol product, present results provide a basis for further research into NCR aerosols.

Ensemble averaging using remote sensing data to model spatiotemporal PM10 concentrations in sparsely monitored South Africa

There is a paucity of air quality data in sub-Saharan African countries to inform science driven air quality management and epidemiological studies. We investigated the use of available remote-sensing aerosol optical depth (AOD) data to develop spatially and temporally resolved models to predict daily particulate matter (PM₁₀) concentrations across four provinces of South Africa (Gauteng, Mpumalanga, KwaZulu-Natal and Western Cape) for the year 2016 in a two-staged approach. In stage 1, a Random Forest (RF) model was used to impute Multiangle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction AOD data for days where it was missing. In stage 2, the machine learner algorithms RF, Gradient Boosting and Support Vector Regression were used to model the relationship between ground-monitored PM₁₀ data, AOD and other spatial and temporal predictors. These were subsequently combined in an ensemble model to predict daily PM₁₀ concentrations at 1 km × 1 km spatial resolution across the four provinces. An out-of-bag R² of 0.96 was achieved for the first stage model. The stage 2 cross-validated (CV) ensemble model captured 0.84 variability in ground-monitored PM₁₀ with a spatial CV R² of 0.48 and temporal CV R² of 0.80. The stage 2 model indicated an optimal performance of the daily predictions when aggregated to monthly and annual means. Our results suggest that a combination of remote sensing data, chemical transport model estimates and other spatiotemporal predictors has the potential to improve air quality exposure data in South Africa's major industrial provinces. In particular, the use of a combined ensemble approach was found to be useful for this area with limited availability of air pollution ground monitoring data.

Fine particulate matter induces METTL3-mediated m6A modification of BIRC5 mRNA in bladder cancer

Long-term exposure to fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) is reportedly related to a variety of cancers including bladder cancer. However, little is known about the biological mechanism underlying this association. In the present study, PM_2.5 exposure was significantly associated with increased levels of m⁶A modification in bladder cancer patients and bladder cells. METTL3 expression was aberrantly upregulated after PM_2.5 exposure, and METTL3 was involved in PM_2.5-induced m⁶A methylation. Higher METTL3 expression was observed in bladder cancer tissues and METTL3 knockdown dramatically inhibited bladder cancer cell proliferation, colony formation, migration and invasion, inducing apoptosis and disrupting the cell cycle. Mechanistically, PM_2.5 enhanced the expression of METTL3 by inducing the promoter hypomethylation of its promoter and increasing the binding affinity of the transcription factor HIF1A. BIRC5 was identified as the target of METTL3 through m⁶A sequencing (m⁶A-Seq) and KEGG analysis. The methylated BIRC5 transcript was subsequently recognized by IGF2BP3, which increased its mRNA stability. In particular, PM_2.5 exposure promoted the m⁶A modification of BIRC5 and its recognition by IGF2BP3. In addition, BIRC5 was involved in bladder cancer proliferation and metastasis, as well as VEGFA-regulated angiogenesis_. This comprehensive study revealed that PM_2.5 exposure exerts epigenetic regulatory effects on bladder cancer via the HIF1A/METTL3/IGF2BP3/BIRC5/VEGFA network.

Estimating Full-Coverage PM2.5 Concentrations Based on Himawari-8 and NAQPMS Data over Sichuan-Chongqing

Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) has attracted extensive attention due to its harmful effects on humans and the environment. The sparse ground-based air monitoring stations limit their application for scientific research, while aerosol optical depth (AOD) by remote sensing satellite technology retrieval can reflect air quality on a large scale and thus compensate for the shortcomings of ground-based measurements. In this study, the elaborate vertical-humidity method was used to estimate PM2.5 with the spatial resolution 1 km and the temporal resolution 1 hour. For vertical correction, the scale height of aerosols (Ha) was introduced based on the relationship between the visibility data and extinction coefficient of meteorological observations to correct the AOD of the Advance Himawari Imager (AHI) onboard the Himawari-8 satellite. The hygroscopic growth factor (f(RH)) was fitted site-by-site and month by month (1–12 months). Meanwhile, the spatial distribution of the fitted coefficients can be obtained by interpolation assuming that the aerosol properties vary smoothly on a regional scale. The inverse distance weighted (IDW) method was performed to construct the hygroscopic correction factor grid for humidity correction so as to estimate the PM2.5 concentrations in Sichuan and Chongqing from 09:00 to 16:00 in 2017–2018. The results indicate that the correlation between “dry” extinction coefficient and PM2.5 is slightly improved compared to the correlation between AOD and PM2.5, with r coefficient values increasing from 0.12–0.45 to 0.32–0.69. The r of hour-by-hour verification is between 0.69 and 0.85, and the accuracy of the afternoon is higher than that of the morning. Due to the missing rate of AOD in the southwest is very high, this study utilized inverse variance weighting (IVW) gap-filling method combine satellite estimation PM2.5 and the nested air-quality prediction modeling system (NAQPMS) simulation data to obtain the full-coverage hourly PM2.5 concentration and analyze a pollution process in the fall and winter.

Prediction of Fine Particulate Matter Concentration near the Ground in North China from Multivariable Remote Sensing Data Based on MIV-BP Neural Network

Rapid urbanization and industrialization lead to severe air pollution in China, threatening public health. However, it is challenging to understand the pollutants’ spatial distributions by relying on a network of ground-based monitoring instruments, considering the incomplete dataset. To predict the spatial distribution of fine-mode particulate matter (PM2.5) pollution near the surface, we established models based on the back propagation (BP) neural network for PM2.5 mass concentration in North China using remote sensing products. According to our predictions, PM2.5 mass concentrations are affected by changes in surface reflectance and the dominant particle size for different seasons. The PM2.5 mass concentration predicted by the seasonal model shows a similar spatial pattern (high in the east but low in the west) influenced by the terrain, but shows high value in winter and low in summer. Compared to the ground-based data, our predictions agree with the spatial distribution of PM2.5 mass concentrations, with a mean bias of +17% in the North China Plain in 2017. Furthermore, the correlation coefficients (R) of the four seasons’ instantaneous measurements are always above 0.7, indicating that the seasonal models primarily improve the PM2.5 mass concentration prediction.

Analyzing the role of in situ coal fire in greenhouse gases emission in a coalfield using remote sensing data and their dispersion and source apportionment study

In situ coal fires significantly pollute the environment in many countries of the world. Monitoring these pollutants is challenging due to extensive area coverage and spatial variations. Thus, the present study demonstrates the method of deriving the spatial and temporal profiles of columnar density of three major greenhouse gases (carbon monoxide (CO), sulfur dioxide (SO₂), and nitrogen dioxide (NO₂)) in an in situ coal fire region (Jharia coalfield (JCF), India) using high-resolution satellite data (TROPOMI) of the European Space Agency (ESA). The study also demonstrates a new methodology for estimating greenhouse gas emissions from in situ coal burning. JCF is one of the significant polluted mining regions with multiple in situ coal fire pockets. The columnar density of the gaseous pollutants in the mining region was compared with the same in the rural, urban, and forest regions to identify the major emission inventories. The study results indicated that coal fire is the major source of CO emission in the region, as the CO was high in the fire regions compared to that of the non-fire regions. But, the major source of NO₂ is the traffic, as the NO₂ was high in the city area as compared to other regions. The spatial profile of SO₂ does not reveal the specific emission sources. The study results indicated that TROPOMI onboard satellite sensors could be effectively used for deriving the spatial profiles of greenhouse gaseous in coal fire regions, which further assist in identifying the emission inventories. Furthermore, the satellite-based Earth observations offer information to understand and manage the greenhouse gas emissions over a large area.

High Spatiotemporal Resolution PM2.5 Concentration Estimation with Machine Learning Algorithm: A Case Study for Wildfire in California

As an aggregate of suspended particulate matter in the air, atmospheric aerosols can affect the regional climate. With the help of satellite remote sensing technology to retrieve AOD (aerosol optical depth) on a global or regional scale, accurate estimation of PM2.5 concentration has become an important task to quantify the spatiotemporal distribution of AOD and PM2.5. However, due to the limitations of satellite platforms, sensors, and inversion algorithms, the spatiotemporal resolution of current major AOD products is still relatively low. Meanwhile, for the impact of cloud, the AOD products often have a serious data gap problem, which also objectively limits the spatiotemporal coverage of predicted PM2.5 concentration. Therefore, how to effectively improve the spatiotemporal resolution and coverage of PM2.5 concentration under the requisite accuracy is still a grand challenge. In this study, the fused high spatial-temporal resolution AOD data in our previous study were used to estimate the ground PM2.5 concentration through machine learning algorithms, the deep belief network (DBN). The PM2.5 data had spatiotemporal autocorrelation in geostatistics and followed the Gaussian kernel distribution. Hence, the autocorrelation model modified by Gaussian kernel function integrated with DBN algorithm, named Geoi-DBN, was used to estimate PM2.5 concentration. The cross-validation results showed that the Geoi-DBN (R2 = 0.86, RMSE = 6.84 µg m−3) performed better than the original DBN (R2 = 0.67, RMSE = 10.46 µg m−3). The final high quality PM2.5 concentration data can be applied for urban air quality monitoring and related PM2.5 exposure risk assessment such as wildfire.

Cloud-Based Decision Support System for Air Quality Management

Air quality is important for the protection of human health, the environment and our cultural heritage and it is an issue that will acquire increased significance in the future due to the adverse effects of climate change. Thus, it is important to not simply monitor air quality, but to make information immediately available to those responsible for monitoring the networks, to policy/decision makers, but also to the general population. Moreover, the development of information technologies over the last couple of decades has allowed the proliferation of real-time pollution monitoring. The work presented herein concerns the development of an effective way of monitoring environmental parameters using dedicated software. It offers a complete suite of applications that support environmental data collection management and reporting for air quality and associated meteorology. It combines modern technologies for the proper monitoring of air quality networks, which can consist of one or more measuring stations. Innovatively, it also focuses on how to effectively present the relevant information, utilizing modern technologies, such as cloud and mobile applications, to network engineers, policy/decision managers, and to the general public at large. It also has the capability of notifying appropriate personnel in the event of failures, overruns or abnormal values. The system, in its current configuration, handles information from six networks that include over 55 air pollution monitoring stations that are located throughout Greece. This practical application has shown that the system can achieve high data availability rates, even higher than 99% during the year.

High Spatial-Temporal PM2.5 Modeling Utilizing Next Generation Weather Radar (NEXRAD) as a Supplementary Weather Source

PM2.5, a type of fine particulate with a diameter equal to or less than 2.5 micrometers, has been identified as a major source of air pollution, and is associated with many health issues. Research on utilizing various data sources, such as remote sensing and in situ sensors, for PM2.5 concentrations modeling remains a hot topic. In this study, the Next Generation Weather Radar (NEXRAD) is used as a supplementary weather data source, along with European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), solar angles, and Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES16) Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) to model high spatial-temporal PM2.5 concentrations. PM2.5 concentrations as well as in situ weather condition variables are collected from the 31 sensors that are deployed in the Dallas Metropolitan area. Four machine learning models with different predictor variables are developed based on an ensemble approach. Since in situ weather observations are not widely available, ECMWF is used as an alternative data source for weather conditions in studies. Hence, the four established models are compared in three groups. Both models in this first group use weather variables collected from deployed sensors, but one uses NEXRAD and the other does not. In the second group, the two models use weather variables retrieved from ECMWF, one using NEXRAD and one without. In the third group, one model uses weather variables from ECMWF, and the other uses in situ weather variables, both without NEXRAD. The first two environmental groups investigate how NEXRAD can enhance model performances with weather variables collected from in situ observations and ECMWF, respectively. The third group explores how effective using ECMWF as an alternative source of weather conditions. Based on the results, the incorporation of NEXRAD achieves an R2 score of 0.86 and 0.83 for groups 1 and 2, respectively, for an improvement of 2.8% and 9.6% over those models without NEXRAD. For group three, the use of ECMWF as an alternative source of in situ weather observations results in a 0.13 R2 drop. For PM2.5 estimation, weather variables including precipitation, temperature, pressure, and surface pressure from ECMWF and deployed sensors, as well as NEXRAD velocity, are shown to be significant factors.

Improving surface PM2.5 forecasts in the United States using an ensemble of chemical transport model outputs: 2. bias correction with satellite data for rural areas

This work serves as the second of a two-part study to improve surface PM2.5 forecasts in the continental U.S. through the integrated use of multi-satellite aerosol optical depth (AOD) products (MODIS Terra/Aqua and VIIRS DT/DB), multi chemical transport model (CTM) (GEOS-Chem, WRF-Chem and CMAQ) outputs and ground observations. In part I of the study, a multi-model ensemble Kalman filter (KF) technique using three CTM outputs and ground observations was developed to correct forecast bias and generate a single best forecast of PM2.5 for next day over non-rural areas that have surface PM2.5 measurements in the proximity of 125 km. Here, with AOD data, we extended the bias correction into rural areas where the closest air quality monitoring station is at least 125 - 300 km away. First, we ensembled all of satellite AOD products to yield the single best AOD. Second, we corrected daily PM2.5 in rural areas from multiple models through the AOD spatial pattern between these areas and non-rural areas, referred to as "extended ground truth" or EGT, for today. Lastly, we applied the KF technique to update the bias in the forecast for next day using the EGT. Our results find that the ensemble of bias-corrected daily PM2.5 from three models for both today and next day show the best performance. Together, the two-part study develops a multi-model and multi-AOD bias correction technique that has the potential to improve PM2.5 forecasts in both rural and non-rural areas in near real time, and be readily implemented at state levels.

Estimating monthly PM2.5 concentrations from satellite remote sensing data, meteorological variables, and land use data using ensemble statistical modeling and a random forest approach

Fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) is associated with various adverse health outcomes and poses serious concerns for public health. However, ground monitoring stations for PM_2.5 measurements are mostly installed in population-dense or urban areas. Thus, satellite retrieved aerosol optical depth (AOD) data, which provide spatial and temporal surrogates of exposure, have become an important tool for PM_2.5 estimates in a study area. In this study, we used AOD estimates of surface PM_2.5 together with meteorological and land use variables to estimate monthly PM_2.5 concentrations at a spatial resolution of 3 km² over Taiwan Island from 2015 to 2019. An ensemble two-stage estimation procedure was proposed, with a generalized additive model (GAM) for temporal-trend removal in the first stage and a random forest model used to assess residual spatiotemporal variations in the second stage. We obtained a model-fitting R² of 0.98 with a root mean square error (RMSE) of 1.40 μg/m³. The leave-one-out cross-validation (LOOCV) R² with seasonal stratification was 0.82, and the RMSE was 3.85 μg/m³, whereas the R² and RMSE obtained by using the pure random forest approach produced R² and RMSE values of 0.74 and 4.60 μg/m³, respectively. The results indicated that the ensemble modeling approach had a higher predictive ability than the pure machine learning method and could provide reliable PM_2.5 estimates over the entire island, which has complex terrain in terms of land use and topography.

A machine learning model to estimate ambient PM2.5 concentrations in industrialized highveld region of South Africa

Exposure to fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) has been linked to a substantial disease burden globally, yet little has been done to estimate the population health risks of PM_2.5 in South Africa due to the lack of high-resolution PM_2.5 exposure estimates. We developed a random forest model to estimate daily PM_2.5 concentrations at 1 km² resolution in and around industrialized Gauteng Province, South Africa, by combining satellite aerosol optical depth (AOD), meteorology, land use, and socioeconomic data. We then compared PM_2.5 concentrations in the study domain before and after the implementation of the new national air quality standards. We aimed to test whether machine learning models are suitable for regions with sparse ground observations such as South Africa and which predictors played important roles in PM_2.5 modeling. The cross-validation R² and Root Mean Square Error of our model was 0.80 and 9.40 μg/m³, respectively. Satellite AOD, seasonal indicator, total precipitation, and population were among the most important predictors. Model-estimated PM_2.5 levels successfully captured the temporal pattern recorded by ground observations. Spatially, the highest annual PM_2.5 concentration appeared in central and northern Gauteng, including northern Johannesburg and the city of Tshwane. Since the 2016 changes in national PM_2.5 standards, PM_2.5 concentrations have decreased in most of our study region, although levels in Johannesburg and its surrounding areas have remained relatively constant. This is anadvanced PM_2.5 model for South Africa with high prediction accuracy at the daily level and at a relatively high spatial resolution. Our study provided a reference for predictor selection, and our results can be used for a variety of purposes, including epidemiological research, burden of disease assessments, and policy evaluation.

PM2.5 Modeling and Historical Reconstruction over the Continental USA Utilizing GOES-16 AOD

In this study, we present a nationwide machine learning model for hourly PM2.5 estimation for the continental United States (US) using high temporal resolution Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES-16) Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) data, meteorological variables from the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) and ancillary data collected between May 2017 and December 2020. A model sensitivity analysis was conducted on predictor variables to determine the optimal model. It turns out that GOES16 AOD, variables from ECMWF, and ancillary data are effective variables in PM2.5 estimation and historical reconstruction, which achieves an average mean absolute error (MAE) of 3.0 μg/m3, and a root mean square error (RMSE) of 5.8 μg/m3. This study also found that the model performance as well as the site measured PM2.5 concentrations demonstrate strong spatial and temporal patterns. Specifically, in the temporal scale, the model performed best between 8:00 p.m. and 11:00 p.m. (UTC TIME) and had the highest coefficient of determination (R2) in Autumn and the lowest MAE and RMSE in Spring. In the spatial scale, the analysis results based on ancillary data show that the R2 scores correlate positively with the mean measured PM2.5 concentration at monitoring sites. Mean measured PM2.5 concentrations are positively correlated with population density and negatively correlated with elevation. Water, forests, and wetlands are associated with low PM2.5 concentrations, whereas developed, cultivated crops, shrubs, and grass are associated with high PM2.5 concentrations. In addition, the reconstructed PM2.5 surfaces serve as an important data source for pollution event tracking and PM2.5 analysis. For this purpose, from May 2017 to December 2020, hourly PM2.5 estimates were made for 10 km by 10 km and the PM2.5 estimates from August through November 2020 during the period of California Santa Clara Unite (SCU) Lightning Complex fires are presented. Based on the quantitative and visualization results, this study reveals that a number of large wildfires in California had a profound impact on the value and spatial-temporal distributions of PM2.5 concentrations.

A balloon-borne imaging Fourier transform spectrometer for atmospheric trace gas profiling

The upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) region is a highly variable region of the atmosphere and critical for understanding climate. Yet, it remains undersampled in the observational satellite record. Due to recent advances in interferometer and infrared detection technologies, imaging Fourier transform spectrometer (FTS) technology has been identified as a feasible remote sensing approach to obtain the required precision and spatial resolution of atmospheric trace gas composition in the UTLS. Building on the success of instruments such as the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding and gimbaled limb observer for radiance imaging of the atmosphere, the limb imaging Fourier transform spectrometer experiment (LIFE) instrument, of which this paper details the design and performance, is a balloon-borne infrared imaging FTS developed as an early prototype of a low earth orbit satellite instrument. LIFE is constructed primarily with commercially available off-the-shelf components, with a design emphasis on greatly reducing the complexity of the instrument, particularly the cooling requirements, with a minimal reduction in information gain on the target atmospheric greenhouse gases of water vapor, methane, ozone, and nitrous oxide. The developed instrument was characterized through a series of thermal and vacuum tests and validated through a successful demonstration balloon flight during the 2019 Strato-Science campaign in Canada. In the calibration of the data from the balloon flight, an issue was identified regarding a lack of knowledge in the emissivity of the on-board blackbody calibration sources. These systematic effects were minimized through the application of an emissivity ratio determined from the characterization tests where a wider range of known blackbody temperatures were available. Despite this identified calibration issue, the results demonstrate that the instrument is capable of meeting primary performance requirements for trace gas retrievals of the target atmospheric species.

Evaluation of MODIS Aerosol Optical Depth and Surface Data Using an Ensemble Modeling Approach to Assess PM2.5 Temporal and Spatial Distributions

The use of statistical models and machine-learning techniques along satellite-derived aerosol optical depth (AOD) is a promising method to estimate ground-level particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of ≤2.5 μm (PM2.5), mainly in urban areas with low air quality monitor density. Nevertheless, the relationship between AOD and ground-level PM2.5 varies spatiotemporally and differences related to spatial domains, temporal schemes, and seasonal variations must be assessed. Here, an ensemble multiple linear regression (EMLR) model and an ensemble neural network (ENN) model were developed to estimate PM2.5 levels in the Monterrey Metropolitan Area (MMA), the second largest urban center in Mexico. Four AOD-SDSs (Scientific Datasets) from MODIS Collection 6 were tested using three spatial domains and two temporal schemes. The best model performance was obtained using AOD at 0.55 µm from MODIS-Aqua at a spatial resolution of 3 km, along meteorological parameters and daily scheme. EMLR yielded a correlation coefficient (R) of ~0.57 and a root mean square error (RMSE) of ~7.00 μg m−3. ENN performed better than EMLR, with an R of ~0.78 and RMSE of ~5.43 μg m−3. Satellite-derived AOD in combination with meteorology data allowed for the estimation of PM2.5 distributions in an urban area with low air quality monitor density.

Synergistic aircraft and ground observations of transported wildfire smoke and its impact on air quality in New York City during the summer 2018 LISTOS campaign

Air pollution associated with wildfire smoke transport during the summer can significantly affect ozone (O₃) and particulate matter (PM) concentrations, even in heavily populated areas like New York City (NYC). Here, we use observations from aircraft, ground-based lidar, in-situ analyzers and satellite to study and assess wildfire smoke transport, vertical distribution, optical properties, and potential impact on air quality in the NYC urban and coastal areas during the summer 2018 Long Island Sound Tropospheric Ozone Study (LISTOS). We investigate an episode of dense smoke transported and mixed into the planetary boundary layer (PBL) on August 15-17, 2018. The horizontal advection of the smoke is shown to be characterized with the prevailing northwest winds in the PBL (velocity > 10 m/s) based on Doppler wind lidar measurements. The wildfire sources and smoke transport paths from the northwest US/Canada to northeast US are identified from the NOAA hazard mapping system (HMS) fires and smoke product and NOAA-HYbrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) backward trajectory analysis. The smoke particles are distinguished from the urban aerosols by showing larger lidar-ratio (70-sr at 532-nm) and smaller depolarization ratio (0.02) at 1064-nm using the NASA High Altitude Lidar Observatory (HALO) airborne high-spectral resolution lidar (HSRL) measurements. The extinction-related angstrom exponents in the near-infrared (IR at 1020-1640 nm) and Ultraviolet (UV at 340-440 nm) from NASA-Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) product show a reverse variation trend along the smoke loadings, and their absolute differences indicate strong correlation with the smoke-Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) (R > 0.94). We show that the aloft smoke plumes can contribute as much as 60-70% to the column AOD and that concurrent high-loadings of O₃, carbon monoxide (CO), and black carbon (BC) were found in the elevated smoke layers from the University of Maryland (UMD) aircraft in-situ observations. Meanwhile, the surface PM_2.5 (PM with diameter ≤ 2.5 μm), organic carbon (OC) and CO measurements show coincident and sharp increase (e.g., PM_2.5 from 5 μg/m³ before the plume intrusion to ~30 μg/m³) with the onset of the plume intrusions into the PBL along with hourly O₃ exceedances in the NYC region. We further evaluate the NOAA-National Air Quality Forecasting Capability (NAQFC) model PBL-height, PM_2.5, and O₃ with the observations and demonstrate good consistency near the ground during the convective PBL period, but significant bias at other times. The aloft smoke layers are sometimes missed by the model.

SAMIRA-SAtellite Based Monitoring Initiative for Regional Air Quality

The satellite based monitoring initiative for regional air quality (SAMIRA) initiative was set up to demonstrate the exploitation of existing satellite data for monitoring regional and urban scale air quality. The project was carried out between May 2016 and December 2019 and focused on aerosol optical depth (AOD), particulate matter (PM), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and sulfur dioxide (SO2). SAMIRA was built around several research tasks: 1. The spinning enhanced visible and infrared imager (SEVIRI) AOD optimal estimation algorithm was improved and geographically extended from Poland to Romania, the Czech Republic and Southern Norway. A near real-time retrieval was implemented and is currently operational. Correlation coefficients of 0.61 and 0.62 were found between SEVIRI AOD and ground-based sun-photometer for Romania and Poland, respectively. 2. A retrieval for ground-level concentrations of PM2.5 was implemented using the SEVIRI AOD in combination with WRF-Chem output. For representative sites a correlation of 0.56 and 0.49 between satellite-based PM2.5 and in situ PM2.5 was found for Poland and the Czech Republic, respectively. 3. An operational algorithm for data fusion was extended to make use of various satellite-based air quality products (NO2, SO2, AOD, PM2.5 and PM10). For the Czech Republic inclusion of satellite data improved mapping of NO2 in rural areas and on an annual basis in urban background areas. It slightly improved mapping of rural and urban background SO2. The use of satellites based AOD or PM2.5 improved mapping results for PM2.5 and PM10. 4. A geostatistical downscaling algorithm for satellite-based air quality products was developed to bridge the gap towards urban-scale applications. Initial testing using synthetic data was followed by applying the algorithm to OMI NO2 data with a direct comparison against high-resolution TROPOMI NO2 as a reference, thus allowing for a quantitative assessment of the algorithm performance and demonstrating significant accuracy improvements after downscaling. We can conclude that SAMIRA demonstrated the added value of using satellite data for regional- and urban-scale air quality monitoring.

Estimating ground-level PM2.5 concentrations by developing and optimizing machine learning and statistical models using 3 km MODIS AODs: case study of Tehran, Iran

PURPOSE

In this study we aimed to develop an optimized prediction model to estimate a fine-resolution grid of ground-level PM_2.5 levels over Tehran. Using remote sensing data to obtain fine-resolution grids of particulate levels in highly polluted environments in areas such as Middle East with the abundance of brightly reflecting deserts is challenging.

METHODS

Different prediction models implementing 3 km AOD products from the MODIS collection 6 and various effective parameters were used to obtain a reliable model to estimate ground-level PM_2.5 concentrations. In this regards, the linear mixed effect model (LME), multi-variable linear regression model (MLR), Gaussian process model (GPM), artificial neural network (ANN) and support vector regression (SVR) were developed and their performance were compared. Since the LME and GPM outperformed other models, they were further optimized based on meteorological and topographical variables. These models were used to estimate PM_2.5 values over the highly polluted megacity, Tehran, Iran. Moreover, the influence of site effect term on the performance of different shapes of LME models was evaluated by considering the random intercept for sites.

RESULTS

Results showed LME models without the site effect term were able to explain ground-level variabilities of PM_2.5 concentrations in ranges of 60-66% (RMSE = 9.6 to 10.3 μg/m³) and 35-41% (RMSE = 12.7 to 13.3 μg/m³) during the model-fitting and cross-validation, respectively. By considering the site effect term, the performance of LME models during calibrations and validations improved by 20% and 50% on average, respectively (18.5% and 17% decrease in the RSME) as compared to LME models without the site effect term. The optimized shape of LME models had a good agreement during both model-fitting (R² of 0.76) and cross-validation (R² of 0.6). Site-specific and seasonal performances of all types of models revealed that LME models had highest R² values over all monitoring stations and all seasons during the cross-validation. LME models had the best performance in May and March compared to other months during the model-fitting and cross-validation. However, LME models had a significant weakness in predicting extreme values of PM_2.5 during the cross-validation. Among all other types of models, GPM with the R² value of 0.59 and the RMSE of 10.2 μg/m³ had the best performance during the cross-validation.

CONCLUSIONS

While the best shape of LME and GPM had similar and reliable performances in predicting ground-level PM_2.5 values during the cross-validation, GPM was able to predict extreme values of ground-level PM_2.5 concentrations, which was the weakness of LME models and was an important issue in urban polluted environments. In this respect, GPM could be a good alternative for LME models for high levels of PM_2.5 concentrations. The spatial distribution of estimated PM_2.5 values represented that central parts of Tehran were the most polluted area over the studied region which was consistent with the ground-level recording PM_2.5 data over monitoring stations.

Spatial and Temporal Characteristics of Environmental Air Quality and Its Relationship with Seasonal Climatic Conditions in Eastern China during 2015-2018

Exploring the relationship between environmental air quality (EAQ) and climatic conditions on a large scale can help better understand the main distribution characteristics and the mechanisms of EAQ in China, which is significant for the implementation of policies of joint prevention and control of regional air pollution. In this study, we used the concentrations of six conventional air pollutants, i.e., carbon monoxide (CO), sulfur dioxide (SO₂), nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), fine particulate matter (PM_2.5), coarse particulate matter (PM₁₀), and ozone (O₃), derived from about 1300 monitoring sites in eastern China (EC) from January 2015 to December 2018. Exploiting the grading concentration limit (GB3095-2012) of various pollutants in China, we also calculated the monthly average air quality index (AQI) in EC. The results show that, generally, the EAQ has improved in all seasons in EC from 2015 to 2018. In particular, the concentrations of conventional air pollutants, such as CO, SO₂, and NO₂, have been decreasing year by year. However, the concentrations of particulate matter, such as PM_2.5 and PM₁₀, have changed little, and the O₃ concentration increased from 2015 to 2018. Empirical mode decomposition (EOF) was used to analyze the major patterns of AQI in EC. The first mode (EOF1) was characterized by a uniform structure in AQI over EC. These phenomena are due to the precipitation variability associated with the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM), referred to as the "summer-winter" pattern. The second EOF mode (EOF2) showed that the AQI over EC is a north-south dipole pattern, which is bound by the Qinling Mountains and Huaihe River (about 35° N). The EOF2 is mainly caused by seasonal variations of the mixed concentration of PM_2.5 and O₃. Associated with EOF2, the Mongolia-Siberian High influences the AQI variation over northern EC by dominating the low-level winds (10 m and 850 hPa) in autumn and winter, and precipitation affects the AQI variation over southern EC in spring and summer.

Ground PM2.5 prediction using imputed MAIAC AOD with uncertainty quantification

Satellite-derived aerosol optical depth (AOD) has been widely used to predict ground-level fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) concentrations, although its utility can be limited due to missing values. Despite recent attempts to address this issue by imputing missing satellite AOD values, the uncertainty associated with the AOD imputation and its impacts on PM_2.5 predictions have been understudied. To fill this gap, we developed a missing data imputation model for the AOD derived from the Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC) and PM_2.5 prediction models using several machine learning methods. We also examined how the uncertainty associated with the imputed AOD and a choice of machine learning algorithm were propagated to PM_2.5 predictions. The application of the proposed imputation model to the data from New York State in the U.S. achieved a superior performance than those related studies, with a cross-validated R² of 0.94 and a Root Mean Square Error of 0.017. We also found that there was considerable uncertainty in PM_2.5 predictions associated with the use of imputed AOD values, although it was not as high as the uncertainty from the machine learning algorithms used in PM_2.5 prediction models. We concluded that the quantification of uncertainties for both AOD imputation and its propagation to AOD-based PM_2.5 prediction is necessary for accurate and reliable PM_2.5 predictions.

COVID-19 induced lockdown and decreasing particulate matter (PM10): An empirical investigation of an Asian megacity

The air quality in the cities of developing countries is deteriorating with the proliferation of anthropogenic activities that add pollutant matters in the lower part of the troposphere. Particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter lower than 10 μm (PM₁₀) is considered one of the direct indicators of air quality in an urban area as it brings health morbidities. The article empirically investigates the role COVID-19 related lockdown has played in bringing down pollution level (PM₁₀) in the megacity of Kolkata. It does so by taking account of PM₁₀ level in three stages - pre, presage and complete-lockdown timelines. The extracted results show a significant declining trend (about 77% vis-a-vis the pre-lockdown period) with 95% of the geographical area under 100 μm/m³ and a strong fit with the station-based records. The feasibility and robustness showed by the remotely sensed data along with other earth observatory information for larger-scale pollution prevalence make its adoption imperative. Simultaneously, it becomes urgent in times of lockdown when the physical mobility of maintenance and research staff to stations is significantly curtailed. The work contributes to study on PM₁₀ by its ability to replicate in examining cities of both the global north and global south.

The Impact of Individual Mobility on Long-Term Exposure to Ambient PM2.5: Assessing Effect Modification by Travel Patterns and Spatial Variability of PM2.5

The impact of individuals' mobility on the degree of error in estimates of exposure to ambient PM2.5 concentrations is increasingly reported in the literature. However, the degree to which accounting for mobility reduces error likely varies as a function of two related factors-individuals' routine travel patterns and the local variations of air pollution fields. We investigated whether individuals' routine travel patterns moderate the impact of mobility on individual long-term exposure assessment. Here, we have used real-world time-activity data collected from 2013 participants in Erie/Niagara counties, New York, USA, matched with daily PM2.5 predictions obtained from two spatial exposure models. We further examined the role of the spatiotemporal representation of ambient PM2.5 as a second moderator in the relationship between an individual's mobility and the exposure measurement error using a random effect model. We found that the effect of mobility on the long-term exposure estimates was significant, but that this effect was modified by individuals' routine travel patterns. Further, this effect modification was pronounced when the local variations of ambient PM2.5 concentrations were captured from multiple sources of air pollution data ('a multi-sourced exposure model'). In contrast, the mobility effect and its modification were not detected when ambient PM2.5 concentration was estimated solely from sparse monitoring data ('a single-sourced exposure model'). This study showed that there was a significant association between individuals' mobility and the long-term exposure measurement error. However, the effect could be modified by individuals' routine travel patterns and the error-prone representation of spatiotemporal variability of PM2.5.

Spatiotemporal Variations in Particulate Matter and Air Quality over China: National, Regional and Urban Scales

Ambient exposure to particulate matter (PM) air pollution is known to have an adverse effect on public health worldwide. Rapid increase rates of economic and urbanization, industrial development, and environmental change in China have exacerbated the occurrence of air pollution. This study examines the temporal and spatial distribution of PM on national, regional and local scales in China during 2014–2016. The relationships between the PM2.5 concentration rising rate (PMRR) and meteorological parameters (wind speed and wind direction) are discussed. The dataset of Air Quality Index (AQI), PM10 (PM diameter < 10 μm ) and PM2.5 (PM diameter < 2.5 μm) were collected in 169, 369, and 367 cities in 2014, 2015, and 2016 over China, respectively. The results show that the air quality has been generally improved on the national scale, but deteriorated locally in areas such as the Feiwei Plain. The northwest China (NW) and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) regions are the worst areas of PM pollution, which are mainly manifested by the excessive PM10 caused by blowing dust in spring in NW and the intensive emissions of PM2.5 in winter in BTH. With the classified seven geographic regions, we demonstrate the significant spatial difference and seasonal variation of PM concentration and PM2.5/PM10 ratio, which indicate different emission sources. Furthermore, the dynamic analysis of the PM2.5 pollution process in 11 large urban cities shows dramatic effects of wind speed and wind direction on the PM2.5 loadings.

Estimation of Surface Concentrations of Black Carbon from Long-Term Measurements at Aeronet Sites over Korea

We estimated fine-mode black carbon (BC) concentrations at the surface using AERONET data from five AERONET sites in Korea, representing urban, rural, and background. We first obtained the columnar BC concentrations by separating the refractive index (RI) for fine-mode aerosols from AERONET data and minimizing the difference between separated RIs and calculated RIs using a mixing rule that can represent a real aerosol mixture (Maxwell Garnett for water-insoluble components and volume average for water-soluble components). Next, we acquired the surface BC concentrations by establishing a multiple linear regression (MLR) between in-situ BC concentrations from co-located or adjacent measurement sites, and columnar BC concentrations, by linearly adding meteorological parameters, month, and land-use type as the independent variables. The columnar BC concentrations estimated from AERONET data using a mixing rule well reproduced site-specific monthly variations of the in-situ measurement data, such as increases due to heating and/or biomass burning and long-range transport associated with prevailing westerlies in the spring and winter, and decreases due to wet scavenging in the summer. The MLR model exhibited a better correlation between measured and predicted BC concentrations than those based on columnar concentrations only, with a correlation coefficient of 0.64. The performance of our MLR model for BC was comparable to that reported in previous studies on the relationship between aerosol optical depth and particulate matter concentration in Korea. This study suggests that the MLR model with properly selected parameters is useful for estimating the surface BC concentration from AERONET data during the daytime, at sites where BC monitoring is not available.

New interpretable deep learning model to monitor real-time PM2.5 concentrations from satellite data

Particulate matter with a mass concentration of particles with a diameter less than 2.5 μm (PM_2.5) is a key air quality parameter. A real-time knowledge of PM_2.5 is highly valuable for lowering the risk of detrimental impacts on human health. To achieve this goal, we developed a new deep learning model-EntityDenseNet to retrieve ground-level PM_2.5 concentrations from Himawari-8, a geostationary satellite providing high temporal resolution data. In contrast to the traditional machine learning model, the new model has the capability to automatically extract PM_2.5 spatio-temporal characteristics. Validation across mainland China demonstrates that hourly, daily and monthly PM_2.5 retrievals contain the root-mean-square errors of 26.85, 25.3, and 15.34 μg/m³, respectively. In addition to a higher accuracy achievement when compared with various machine learning inversion methods (backpropagation neural network, extreme gradient boosting, light gradient boosting machine, and random forest), EntityDenseNet can "peek inside the black box" to extract the spatio-temporal features of PM_2.5. This model can show, for example, that PM_2.5 levels in the coastal city of Tianjin were more influenced by air from Hebei than Beijing. Further, EntityDenseNet can still extract the seasonal characteristics that demonstrate that PM_2.5 is more closely related within three month groups over mainland China: (1) December, January and February, (2) March, April and May, (3) July, August and September, even without meteorological information. EntityDenseNet has the ability to obtain high temporal resolution satellite-based PM_2.5 data over China in real-time. This could act as an important tool to improve our understanding of PM_2.5 spatio-temporal features.

Review: Strategies for using satellite-based products in modeling PM2.5 and short-term pollution episodes

Short-term air pollution episodes motivate improved understanding of the association between air pollution and acute morbidity and mortality episodes, and triggers required mitigation plans. A variety of methods have been employed to estimate exposure to air pollution episodes, including GIS-based dispersion models, interpolation between sparse monitoring sites, land-use regression models, optimization models, line- or area-dispersion plume models, and models using information from imaging satellites, often including land-use and meteorological variables. There has been increasing use of satellite-borne aerosol products for assessing short-term air quality events. They provide better spatial coverage, but currently at the price of low temporal coverage and rather crude spatial resolution. This is a brief review on using satellite data for modeling short-term air quality and pollution events. The review can be pursued as a practical guide for modeling air quality with satellite-based products, as it includes important questions that should be considered in both the study design as well as the model development stages. Progress in this field is detailed and includes published models and their use in environmental and health studies. Both current and future satellite-borne capabilities are covered. It also provides links to access and download relevant datasets and some example R code for data processing and modeling.

Estimation of ground-level PM2.5 concentration using MODIS AOD and corrected regression model over Beijing, China

To establish a new model for estimating ground-level PM2.5 concentration over Beijing, China, the relationship between aerosol optical depth (AOD) and ground-level PM2.5 concentration was derived and analysed firstly. Boundary layer height (BLH) and relative humidity (RH) were shown to be two major factors influencing the relationship between AOD and ground-level PM2.5 concentration. Thus, they are used to correct MODIS AOD to enhance the correlation between MODIS AOD and PM2.5. When using corrected MODIS AOD for modelling, the correlation between MODIS AOD and PM2.5 was improved significantly. Then, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), surface temperature (ST) and surface wind speed (SPD) were introduced as auxiliary variables to further improve the performance of the corrected regression model. The seasonal and annual average distribution of PM2.5 concentration over Beijing from 2014 to 2016 were mapped for intuitively analysing. Those can be regarded as important references for monitoring the ground-level PM2.5 concentration distribution. It is obviously that the PM2.5 concentration distribution over Beijing revealed the trend of "southeast high and northwest low", and showed a significant decrease in annual average PM2.5 concentration from 2014 to 2016.

Estimating ground level PM2.5 concentrations and associated health risk in India using satellite based AOD and WRF predicted meteorological parameters

PM_2.5 concentrations in most of the Indian cities are in alarming levels. However, the current network of 308 monitoring stations are heterogeneously placed and do not cover many parts of the country. This limits the ability of agencies to measure the concentration which people are exposed to. In this study, ground level PM_2.5 concentrations and the associated risk and mortality in India using satellite based AOD data for the year 2015 was estimated to identify the state specific number of more monitoring sites required. Results indicate that average PM_2.5 concentrations were 89 μg/m³, which caused 1.61 million deaths including 0.34 million Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) deaths, 0.2 million Lung Cancer (LC) deaths, 0.53 million Ischemic Heart Disease (IHD) deaths and 0.70 million deaths due to Stroke. The years of life lost (YLL) per 1000 population due to exposure to PM_2.5 indicated Delhi (North-India) to be severely affected by PM_2.5 resulting in 227.47 years of life lost and was closely followed by Bihar (Eastern-India) (225.18), Rajasthan (Western-India) (225.05) and Uttar Pradesh (Northern-India) (213.16). Eastern India had the highest population weighted concentration (102.09 μg/m³) and contributed to 23.46% of premature mortality and was followed by Central (75.32 μg/m³) and Northern India (75.12 μg/m³), thus indicating severity of air pollution in India and need for its constant monitoring. As per Indian regulatory agency's guidelines, India still needs 1638 more air quality monitoring stations, of which North-Indian states require maximum number of additional stations i.e. 400, followed by 382 in eastern states.

Remote Sensing Estimation of Regional NO2 via Space-Time Neural Networks

Nitrogen dioxide (NO2) is an essential air pollutant related to adverse health effects. A space-time neural network model is developed for the estimation of ground-level NO2 in this study by integrating ground NO2 station measurements, satellite NO2 products, simulation data, and other auxiliary data. Specifically, a geographically and temporally weighted generalized regression neural network (GTW-GRNN) model is used with the advantage to consider the spatiotemporal variations of the relationship between NO2 and influencing factors in a nonlinear neural network framework. The case study across the Wuhan urban agglomeration (WUA), China, indicates that the GTW-GRNN model outperforms the widely used geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR), with the site-based cross-validation R2 value increasing by 0.08 (from 0.61 to 0.69). Besides, the comparison between the GTW-GRNN and original global GRNN models shows that considering the spatiotemporal variations in GRNN modeling can boost estimation accuracy. All these results demonstrate that the GTW-GRNN based NO2 estimation framework will be of great use for remote sensing of ground-level NO2 concentrations.

Satellite Observations of PM2.5 Changes and Driving Factors Based Forecasting Over China 2000–2025

In China, atmospheric fine particulate matter (PM2.5) pollution is a challenging environmental problem. Systematic PM2.5 measurements have started only in 2013, resulting in a lack of historical data which is a key obstacle for the analysis of long-term PM2.5 trends and forecasting the evolution over this hot region. Satellite data can provide a new approach to derive historical PM2.5 information provided that the column-integrated aerosol properties can adequately be converted to PM2.5. In this study, a recently developed formulation for the calculation of surface PM2.5 concentrations using satellite data is introduced and applied to reconstruct a PM2.5 time series over China from 2000 to 2015. The formulated model is also used to explore the PM2.5 driving factors related to anthropogenic or meteorological parameters in this historical period. The results show that the annually averaged PM2.5 over China’s polluted regions increased rapidly between 2004 and 2007 (with an average rate of 3.07 μg m−3 yr−1) to reach values of up to 61.1 μg m−3 in 2007, and decreased from 2011 to 2015 with an average rate of −2.61 μg m−3 yr−1, to reach a value of 46.9 μg m−3 in 2015. The analysis shows that the increase in PM2.5 before 2008 was mainly associated with increasing anthropogenic factors, further augmented by the effect of meteorological influences. However, the decrease in PM2.5 after 2011 is mainly attributed to the effect of pollution control measures on anthropogenic factors, whereas the effects of meteorological factors have continued to increase since 2000. The results also suggest that further reduction in anthropogenic emissions is needed to accelerate the decrease in PM2.5 concentrations to reach the target of 35 μg m−3 over major polluted areas in China before 2025.

Improving Surface PM2.5 Forecasts in the United States Using an Ensemble of Chemical Transport Model Outputs: 1. Bias Correction With Surface Observations in Nonrural Areas

This work is the first of a two-part study that aims to develop a computationally efficient bias correction framework to improve surface PM_2.5 forecasts in the United States. Here, an ensemble-based Kalman filter (KF) technique is developed primarily for nonrural areas with approximately 500 surface observation sites for PM_2.5 and applied to three (GEOS-Chem, WRF-Chem, and WRF-CMAQ) chemical transport model (CTM) hindcast outputs for June 2012. While all CTMs underestimate daily surface PM_2.5 mass concentration by 20-50%, KF correction is effective for improving each CTM forecast. Subsequently, two ensemble methods are formulated: (1) the arithmetic mean ensemble (AME) that equally weights each model and (2) the optimized ensemble (OPE) that calculates the individual model weights by minimizing the least-square errors. While the OPE shows superior performance than the AME, the combination of either the AME or the OPE with a KF performs better than the OPE alone, indicating the effectiveness of the KF technique. Overall, the combination of a KF with the OPE shows the best results. Lastly, the Successive Correction Method (SCM) was applied to spread the bias correction from model grids with surface PM_2.5 observations to the grids lacking ground observations by using a radius of influence of 125 km derived from surface observations, which further improves the forecast of surface PM_2.5 at the national scale. Our findings provide the foundation for the second part of this study that uses satellite-based aerosol optical depth (AOD) products to further improve the forecast of surface PM_2.5 in rural areas by performing statistical analysis of model output.

Spatial and Temporal Distribution of PM2.5 Pollution over Northeastern Mexico: Application of MERRA-2 Reanalysis Datasets

Aerosol and meteorological remote sensing data could be used to assess the distribution of urban and regional fine particulate matter (PM2.5), especially in locations where there are few or no ground-based observations, such as Latin America. The objective of this study is to evaluate the ability of Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Application, version 2 (MERRA-2) aerosol components to represent PM2.5 ground concentrations and to develop and validate an ensemble neural network (ENN) model that uses MERRA-2 aerosol and meteorology products to estimate the monthly average of PM2.5 ground concentrations in the Monterrey Metropolitan Area (MMA), which is the main urban area in Northeastern Mexico (NEM). The project involves the application of the ENN model to a regional domain that includes not only the MMA but also other municipalities in NEM in the period from January 2010 to December 2014. Aerosol optical depth (AOD), temperature, relative humidity, dust PM2.5, sea salt PM2.5, black carbon (BC), organic carbon (OC), and sulfate (SO42−) reanalysis data were identified as factors that significantly influenced PM2.5 concentrations. The ENN estimated a PM2.5 monthly mean of 25.62 μg m−3 during the entire period. The results of the comparison between the ENN and ground measurements were as follows: correlation coefficient R ~ 0.90; root mean square error = 1.81 μg m−3; mean absolute error = 1.31 μg m−3. Overall, the PM2.5 levels were higher in winter and spring. The highest PM2.5 levels were located in the MMA, which is the major source of air pollution throughout this area. The estimated data indicated that PM2.5 was not distributed uniformly throughout the region but varied both spatially and temporally. These results led to the conclusion that the magnitude of air pollution varies among seasons and regions, and it is correlated with meteorological factors. The methodology developed in this study could be used to identify new monitoring sites and address information gaps.

Global Distribution of Column Satellite Aerosol Optical Depth to Surface PM2.5 Relationships

Using a combined Terra and Aqua Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) mid-visible aerosol optical depth (AOD) product at 0.1 × 0.1-degree spatial resolution and collocated surface PM2.5 (particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter smaller than 2.5 μm) monitors, we provide a global five-year (2015–2019) assessment of the spatial and seasonal AOD–PM2.5 relationships of slope, intercepts, and correlation coefficients. Only data from ground monitors accessible through an open air-quality portal that are available to the worldwide community for air quality research and decision making are used in this study. These statistics that are reported 1 × 1-degree resolution are important since satellite AOD is often used in conjunction with spatially limited surface PM2.5 monitors to estimate global distributions of surface particulate matter concentrations. Results indicate that more than 3000 ground monitors are now available for PM2.5 studies. While there is a large spread in correlation coefficients between AOD and PM2.5, globally, averaged over all seasons, the correlation coefficient is 0.55 with a unit AOD producing 54 μgm−3 of PM2.5 (Slope) with an intercept of 8 μgm−3. While the number of surface PM2.5 measurements has increased by a factor of 10 over the last decade, a concerted effort is still needed to continue to increase these monitors in areas that have no surface monitors, especially in large population centers that will further leverage the strengths of satellite data.

Feasibility Study on Measuring the Particulate Matter Level in the Atmosphere by Means of Yagi-Uda-Like Antennas

In this work, the application of a technique for monitoring changes of the dielectric constant of the atmosphere caused by the presence of pollution is discussed. The method is based on changes in the reflection coefficient of the device induced by these dielectric constant variations of the surrounding medium. To that end, several Yagi–Uda-like antenna designs with different size limitations were simulated by using a Method-of-Moments software and optimized by means of a simulated annealing strategy. It has been found that the larger the optimal elements of the array are allowed to be, the higher the sensitivity reached. Thus, in a trade-off between sensitivity and moderate length (regarding flexibility purposes), the most promising solution has been built. This prototype has been experimentally tested in presence of an artificial aerosol made of PAO (polyalphaolefin) oil and black carbon inclusions of a size of 0.2 μm. As a result, potentials for developing a measurement procedure by means of changes in the characteristic parameters of the antenna led by different concentration levels of suspended particles in the surrounding medium are shown. In this manner, a local mapping of polluted levels could be developed in an easy, real-time, and flexible procedure.

Atmospheric Pollution and Thyroid Function of Pregnant Women in Athens, Greece: A Pilot Study

Exposure to air pollution and, in particular, to nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) or particulate pollutants less than 2.5 μm (PM2.5) or 10 μm (PM10) in diameter has been linked to thyroid (dys)function in pregnant women. We hypothesized that there may be a dose-effect relationship between air pollutants and thyroid function parameters. We retrospectively evaluated thyrotropin (TSH) in 293 women, NO₂, PM2.5 and PM10 levels in Athens. All the women were diagnosed with hypothyroidism for the first time during their pregnancy. Exposure to air pollution for each woman was considered according to her place of residence. Statistical analysis of age, pregnancy weight change, and air pollutants versus TSH was performed with ordinary least squares regression (OLS-R) and quantile regression (Q-R). A positive correlation for logTSH and PM2.5(r = +0.13, p = 0.02) was found, using OLS-R. Further analysis with Q-R showed that each incremental unit increase (for the 10th to the 90th response quantile) in PM2.5 increased logTSH(±SE) between +0.029 (0.001) to +0.025 (0.001) mIU/L (p < 0.01). The other parameters and pollutants (PM10 and NO₂) had no significant effect on TSH. Our results indeed show a dose-response relationship between PM2.5 and TSH. The mechanisms involved in the pathophysiological effects of atmospheric pollutants, in particular PM2.5, are being investigated.

Deep Flexible Sequential (DFS) Model for Air Pollution Forecasting

Growing metropolitan areas bring rapid urbanization and air pollution problems. As diseases and mortality rates increase because of the air pollution problem, it becomes a necessity to estimate the air pollution density and inform the public to protect the health. Air pollution problem displays contextual characteristics such as meteorological conditions, industrial and technological developments, traffic problem etc. that change from country to country and also from city to city. In this study, we determined PM[Formula: see text] as the target pollutant and designed a new deep learning based air quality forecasting model, namely DFS (Deep Flexible Sequential). Our study uses real world hourly data from Istanbul, Turkey between 2014 and 2018 to forecast the air pollution 4, 12, and 24 hours before. DFS model is a hybrid & flexible deep model including Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) and Convolutional Neural Network (CNN). The proposed model also is capable of generalization with standard and flexible Dropout layers. Through flexible Dropout layer, the model also obtains flexibility to adapt changing window sizes in sequential modelling. Moreover, this model can be applied to other air pollution time series data problems with small modifications on parameters by taking into account the nature of the data set.

Influence of Spatial Resolution and Retrieval Frequency on Applicability of Satellite-Predicted PM2.5 in Northern China

Satellite aerosol optical depth (AOD) products have been widely used in estimating fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations near the surface at a regional scale, and perform well compared with ground measurements. However, the influence of limitations such as retrieval frequency and the spatial resolution of satellite AODs on the applicability of predicted PM2.5 values has been rarely considered. With three widely used MODIS AOD products, including Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC), Deep Blue (DB) and Dark Target (DT), here we evaluate the influence of their spatial resolution and sampling frequency by estimating daily PM2.5 concentrations in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region of northern China during 2017 utilizing a mixed effects model. The daily concentrations of PM2.5 derived from MAIAC, DB and DT AOD all have high correlations (R2: 0.78, 0.8, and 0.78) with the observed values, but the predicted annual PM2.5 exhibits a distinct spatial distribution. DT estimation obviously underestimates annual PM2.5 in polluted areas due to lower sampling of heavy pollution events. By contrast, the retrieval frequency (~40-60%) of MAIAC and DB AOD can represent well annual PM2.5 in nearly all 83 sites tested. However, MAIAC and DB-derived PM2.5 have a larger bias compared with observed values than DT, indicating that the large spatial variation of aerosol properties can exert an influence on the reliability of the statistical AOD-PM2.5 relationship. Also, there is notable difference between MAIAC and DB PM2.5 due to their different cloud screening methods. The MAIAC PM2.5 with high spatial resolution at 1 km can capture much finer hotpots than DB and DT at 10 km. Our results suggest that it is crucial to consider the applicability of satellite-predicted PM2.5 values derived from different aerosol products according to the specific requirements besides modeling the AOD-PM2.5 relationship.

Spatiotemporal Characteristics of the Association between AOD and PM over the California Central Valley

Many air pollution health effects studies rely on exposure estimates of particulate matter (PM) concentrations derived from remote sensing observations of aerosol optical depth (AOD). Simple but robust calibration models between AOD and PM are therefore important for generating reliable PM exposures. We conduct an in-depth examination of the spatial and temporal characteristics of the AOD-PM2.5 relationship by leveraging data from the Distributed Regional Aerosol Gridded Observation Networks (DRAGON) field campaign where eight NASA Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) sites were co-located with EPA Air Quality System (AQS) monitoring sites in California’s Central Valley from November 2012 to April 2013. With this spatiotemporally rich data we found that linear calibration models (R2 = 0.35, RMSE = 10.38 μg/m3) were significantly improved when spatial (R2 = 0.45, RMSE = 9.54 μg/m3), temporal (R2 = 0.62, RMSE = 8.30 μg/m3), and spatiotemporal (R2 = 0.65, RMSE = 7.58 μg/m3) functions were included. As a use-case we applied the best spatiotemporal model to convert space-borne MultiAngle Imaging Spectroradiometer (MISR) AOD observations to predict PM2.5 over the region (R2 = 0.60, RMSE = 8.42 μg/m3). Our results imply that simple AERONET AOD-PM2.5 calibrations are robust and can be reliably applied to space-borne AOD observations, resulting in PM2.5 prediction surfaces for use in downstream applications.

Contribution of Satellite-Derived Aerosol Optical Depth PM2.5 Bayesian Concentration Surfaces to Respiratory-Cardiovascular Chronic Disease Hospitalizations in Baltimore, Maryland

The fine particulate matter baseline (PMB), which includes PM_2.5 monitor readings fused with Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model predictions, using the Hierarchical Bayesian Model (HBM), is less accurate in rural areas without monitors. To address this issue, an upgraded HBM was used to form four experimental aerosol optical depth (AOD)-PM_2.5 concentration surfaces. A case-crossover design and conditional logistic regression evaluated the contribution of the AOD-PM_2.5 surfaces and PMB to four respiratory-cardiovascular hospital events in all 99 12 km² CMAQ grids, and in grids with and without ambient air monitors. For all four health outcomes, only two AOD-PM_2.5 surfaces, one not kriged (PMC) and the other kriged (PMCK), had significantly higher Odds Ratios (ORs) on lag days 0, 1, and 01 than PMB in all grids, and in grids without monitors. In grids with monitors, emergency department (ED) asthma PMCK on lag days 0, 1 and 01 and inpatient (IP) heart failure (HF) PMCK ORs on lag days 01 were significantly higher than PMB ORs. Warm season ORs were significantly higher than cold season ORs. Independent confirmation of these results should include AOD-PM_2.5 concentration surfaces with greater temporal-spatial resolution, now easily available from geostationary satellites, such as GOES-16 and GOES-17.

Optimal Inversion of Conversion Parameters from Satellite AOD to Ground Aerosol Extinction Coefficient Using Automatic Differentiation

Satellite aerosol optical depth (AOD) plays an important role for high spatiotemporal-resolution estimation of fine particulate matter with diameters ≤2.5 μm (PM2.5). However, the MODIS sensors aboard the Terra and Aqua satellites mainly measure column (integrated) AOD using the aerosol (extinction) coefficient integrated over all altitudes in the atmosphere, and column AOD is less related to PM2.5 than low-level or ground-based aerosol (extinction) coefficient (GAC). With recent development of automatic differentiation (AD) that has been widely applied in deep learning, a method using AD to find optimal solution of conversion parameters from column AOD to the simulated GAC is presented. Based on the computational graph, AD has considerably improved the efficiency in applying gradient descent to find the optimal solution for complex problems involving multiple parameters and spatiotemporal factors. In a case study of the Jing-Jin-Ji region of China for the estimation of PM2.5 in 2015 using the Multiangle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction AOD, the optimal solution of the conversion parameters was obtained using AD and the loss function of mean square error. This solution fairly modestly improved the Pearson’s correlation between simulated GAC and PM2.5 up to 0.58 (test R2: 0.33), in comparison with three existing methods. In the downstream validation, the simulated GACs were used to reliably estimate PM2.5, considerably improving test R2 up to 0.90 and achieving consistent match for GAC and PM2.5 in their spatial distribution and seasonal variations. With the availability of the AD tool, the proposed method can be generalized to the inversion of other similar conversion parameters in remote sensing.

Methods, availability, and applications of PM2.5 exposure estimates derived from ground measurements, satellite, and atmospheric models

Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is a well-established risk factor for public health. To support both health risk assessment and epidemiological studies, data are needed on spatial and temporal patterns of PM2.5 exposures. This review article surveys publicly available exposure datasets for surface PM2.5 mass concentrations over the contiguous U.S., summarizes their applications and limitations, and provides suggestions on future research needs. The complex landscape of satellite instruments, model capabilities, monitor networks, and data synthesis methods offers opportunities for research development, but would benefit from guidance for new users. Guidance is provided to access publicly available PM2.5 datasets, to explain and compare different approaches for dataset generation, and to identify sources of uncertainties associated with various types of datasets. Three main sources used to create PM2.5 exposure data are ground-based measurements (especially regulatory monitoring), satellite retrievals (especially aerosol optical depth, AOD), and atmospheric chemistry models. We find inconsistencies among several publicly available PM2.5 estimates, highlighting uncertainties in the exposure datasets that are often overlooked in health effects analyses. Major differences among PM2.5 estimates emerge from the choice of data (ground-based, satellite, and/or model), the spatiotemporal resolutions, and the algorithms used to fuse data sources.Implications: Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) has large impacts on human morbidity and mortality. Even though the methods for generating the PM2.5 exposure estimates have been significantly improved in recent years, there is a lack of review articles that document PM2.5 exposure datasets that are publicly available and easily accessible by the health and air quality communities. In this article, we discuss the main methods that generate PM2.5 data, compare several publicly available datasets, and show the applications of various data fusion approaches. Guidance to access and critique these datasets are provided for stakeholders in public health sectors.

Optimal Band Analysis of a Space-Based Multispectral Sensor for Urban Air Pollutant Detection

Air pollution continues to attract more and more public attention. Space-based infrared sensors provide a measure to monitor air quality in large areas. In this paper, a band selection procedure of space-based infrared sensors is proposed for urban air pollutant detection, in which observation geometry, ground and atmosphere radiant characteristics, and sensor system noise are integrated. The physics-based atmospheric radiative transfer model is reviewed and used to calculate total spectral radiance at the sensor aperture. Spectral filters with different central wavelength and bandwidth are designed to calculate contrasts in various bands, which can be presented as a two-dimensional matrix. Minimal available bandwidth and signal-to-noise ratio threshold are set to characterize the impacts of the sensor system. In this way, the band with higher contrast is assumed to have better detection performance. The proposed procedure is implemented to analyze an optimal band for detecting four types of gaseous pollutants and discriminating aerosol particle pollution to demonstrate usefulness. Simulation results show that narrower bands tend to achieve better performance while the optimal band is related to the available minimal bandwidth and pollutant density. In addition, the bands that are near optimal can achieve similar performance.