Long-term studies of hantavirus reservoir populations in the southwestern United States: a synthesis

Hantavirus: an overview and advancements in therapeutic approaches for infection

Hantaviruses are a significant and emerging global public health threat, impacting more than 200,000 individuals worldwide each year. The single-stranded RNA viruses belong to the Hantaviridae family and are responsible for causing two acute febrile diseases in humans: Hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS) and hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS). Currently, there are no licensed treatments or vaccines available globally for HTNV infection. Various candidate drugs have shown efficacy in increasing survival rates during the early stages of HTNV infection. Some of these drugs include lactoferrin, ribavirin, ETAR, favipiravir and vandetanib. Immunotherapy utilizing neutralizing antibodies (NAbs) generated from Hantavirus convalescent patients show efficacy against HTNV. Monoclonal antibodies such as MIB22 and JL16 have demonstrated effectiveness in protecting against HTNV infection. The development of vaccines and antivirals, used independently and/or in combination, is critical for elucidating hantaviral infections and the impact on public health. RNA interference (RNAi) arised as an emerging antiviral therapy, is a highly specific degrades RNA, with post-transcriptional mechanism using eukaryotic cells platform. That has demonstrated efficacy against a wide range of viruses, both in vitro and in vivo. Recent antiviral methods involve using small interfering RNA (siRNA) and other, immune-based therapies to target specific gene segments (S, M, or L) of the Hantavirus. This therapeutic approach enhances viral RNA clearance through the RNA interference process in Vero E6 cells or human lung microvascular endothelial cells. However, the use of siRNAs faces challenges due to their low biological stability and limited in vivo targeting ability. Despite their successful inhibition of Hantavirus replication in host cells, their antiviral efficacy may be hindered. In the current review, we focus on advances in therapeutic strategies, as antiviral medications, immune-based therapies and vaccine candidates aimed at enhancing the body's ability to control the progression of Hantavirus infections, with the potential to reduce the risk of severe disease.

Optimizing the delivery of self-disseminating vaccines in fluctuating wildlife populations

Zoonotic pathogens spread by wildlife continue to spill into human populations and threaten human lives. A potential way to reduce this threat is by vaccinating wildlife species that harbor pathogens that are infectious to humans. Unfortunately, even in cases where vaccines can be distributed en masse as edible baits, achieving levels of vaccine coverage sufficient for pathogen elimination is rare. Developing vaccines that self-disseminate may help solve this problem by magnifying the impact of limited direct vaccination. Although models exist that quantify how well these self-disseminating vaccines will work when introduced into temporally stable wildlife populations, how well they will perform when introduced into populations with pronounced seasonal population dynamics remains unknown. Here we develop and analyze mathematical models of fluctuating wildlife populations that allow us to study how reservoir ecology, vaccine design, and vaccine delivery interact to influence vaccine coverage and opportunities for pathogen elimination. Our results demonstrate that the timing of vaccine delivery can make or break the success of vaccination programs. As a general rule, the effectiveness of self-disseminating vaccines is optimized by introducing after the peak of seasonal reproduction when the number of susceptible animals is near its maximum.

Forecasting Outbreaks of Hantaviral Disease: Future Directions in Geospatial Modeling

Hantaviral diseases have been recognized as 'place diseases' from their earliest identification and, epidemiologically, are tied to single host species with transmission occurring from infectious hosts to humans. As such, human populations are most at risk when they are in physical proximity to suitable habitats for reservoir populations, when numbers of infectious hosts are greatest. Because of the lags between improving habitat conditions and increasing infectious host abundance and spillover to humans, it should be possible to anticipate (forecast) where and when outbreaks will most likely occur. Most mammalian hosts are associated with specific habitat requirements, so identifying these habitats and the ecological drivers that impact population growth and the dispersal of viral hosts should be markers of the increased risk for disease outbreaks. These regions could be targeted for public health and medical education. This paper outlines the rationale for forecasting zoonotic outbreaks, and the information that needs to be clarified at various levels of biological organization to make the forecasting of orthohantaviruses successful. Major challenges reflect the transdisciplinary nature of forecasting zoonoses, with needs to better understand the implications of the data collected, how collections are designed, and how chosen methods impact the interpretation of results.

The impact of wildlife and environmental factors on hantavirus infection in the host and its translation into human risk

Identifying factors that drive infection dynamics in reservoir host populations is essential in understanding human risk from wildlife-originated zoonoses. We studied zoonotic Puumala orthohantavirus (PUUV) in the host, the bank vole (Myodes glareolus), populations in relation to the host population, rodent and predator community and environment-related factors and whether these processes are translated into human infection incidence. We used 5-year rodent trapping and bank vole PUUV serology data collected from 30 sites located in 24 municipalities in Finland. We found that PUUV seroprevalence in the host was negatively associated with the abundance of red foxes, but this process did not translate into human disease incidence, which showed no association with PUUV seroprevalence. The abundance of weasels, the proportion of juvenile bank voles in the host populations and rodent species diversity were negatively associated with the abundance index of PUUV positive bank voles, which, in turn, showed a positive association with human disease incidence. Our results suggest certain predators, a high proportion of young bank vole individuals, and a diverse rodent community, may reduce PUUV risk for humans through their negative impacts on the abundance of infected bank voles.

Effects of habitat management on rodent diversity, abundance, and virus infection dynamics

As anthropogenic factors continue to degrade natural areas, habitat management is needed to restore and maintain biodiversity. However, the impacts of different habitat management regimes on ecosystems have largely focused on vegetation analyses, with limited evaluation of downstream effects on wildlife. We compared the effects of grassland management regimes (prescribed burning, cutting/haying, or no active management) on rodent communities and the viruses they hosted. Rodents were trapped in 13 existing grassland sites in Northwest Arkansas, USA during 2020 and 2021. Rodent blood samples were screened for antibodies against three common rodent-borne virus groups: orthohantaviruses, arenaviruses, and orthopoxviruses. We captured 616 rodents across 5953 trap nights. Burned and unmanaged sites had similarly high abundance and diversity, but burned sites had a higher proportion of grassland species than unmanaged sites; cut sites had the highest proportion of grassland species but the lowest rodent abundance and diversity. A total of 38 rodents were seropositive for one of the three virus groups (34 orthohantavirus, three arenavirus, and one orthopoxvirus). Thirty-six seropositive individuals were found in burned sites, and two orthohantavirus-seropositive individuals were found in cut sites. Cotton rats and prairie voles, two grassland species, accounted for 97% of the rodents seropositive for orthohantavirus. Our study indicates that prescribed burns lead to a diverse and abundant community of grassland rodent species compared with other management regimes; as keystone taxa, these results also have important implications for many other species in food webs. Higher prevalence of antibodies against rodent-borne viruses in burned prairies shows an unexpected consequence likely resulting from robust host population densities supported by the increased habitat quality of these sites. Ultimately, these results provide empirical evidence that can inform grassland restoration and ongoing management strategies.

Activity patterns and interactions of rodents in an assemblage composed by native species and the introduced black rat: implications for pathogen transmission

Background

The degree of temporal overlap between sympatric wild hosts species and their behavioral interactions can be highly relevant to the transmission of pathogens. However, this topic has been scantly addressed. Furthermore, temporal overlap and interactions within an assemblage of wild rodents composed of native and introduced species have been rarely discussed worldwide. We assessed the nocturnal activity patterns and interactions between rodent taxa of an assemblage consisting of native species (Oligoryzomys longicaudatus, Abrothrix hirta, and Abrothrix olivaceus) and the introduced black rat (Rattus rattus) in a temperate forest from southern Chile. All rodent species in this study are known hosts for various zoonotic pathogens.

Results

We found a high nocturnal temporal overlap within the rodent assemblage. However, pairwise comparisons of temporal activity patterns indicated significant differences among all taxa. Rattus rattus showed aggressive behaviors against all native rodents more frequently than against their conspecifics. As for native rodents, agonistic behaviors were the most common interactions between individuals of the same taxon and between individuals of different taxa (O. longicaudatus vs Abrothrix spp.).

Conclusions

Our findings reveal several interactions among rodent taxa that may have implications for pathogens such as hantaviruses, Leptospira spp., and vector-borne pathogens. Furthermore, their transmission may be facilitated by the temporal overlap observed between rodent taxa.

Physiological links with behavior and fitness: The acute adrenocortical response predicts trappability but not survival in male and female deermice

The "Cort-Fitness" hypothesis predicts a negative relationship between baseline glucocorticoids (GCs) and fitness, although evidence for this hypothesis remains mixed. Such ambiguity could partially exist because blood GCs, typically used in field studies, can fluctuate too rapidly to measure accurately, while the relationship between GCs and trappability is often neglected. Here, by addressing these factors, we examined relationships between GC measures and survival of North American deermice (Peromyscus maniculatus; hereafter deermice) as a model system. To do this, we used more stable GC measures, including the integrated measures of baseline and stress response fecal corticosterone metabolites (FCMs), and downstream measures of neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio (N/L ratio), and body condition score (BCS), to characterize their relationships with survival and trappability. Over two years, deermice were live-trapped monthly, evaluated for BCS, and sampled for feces and blood. Stress response FCMs were evaluated only at first capture. Mark-recapture models, with GC measures as predictors of either survival or trappability, were compared to identify top models. We found that stress response FCMs negatively predicted trappability, and weaker evidence that BCS positively predicted survival. Although the latter provides some support for the "Cort-Fitness" hypothesis, there was no support when using integrated measures. Instead, our findings suggest that deermice with a lower adrenocortical response (i.e. stress response FCMs) were more likely to be captured. Therefore, GC-trappability relationships must be investigated in field studies to avoid linking the wrong GC profile to fitness, and physiological measures other than blood GCs may be useful for detecting GC-fitness patterns.

Extinction transition of hantavirus-infected rodents in a hostile environment

The spatial critical shelter sizes above which populations would survive are investigated for the infection of hantavirus among rodent populations surrounded by a deadly environment. We show that the critical shelter sizes for the infected population and the susceptible population are different due to symmetry breaking in the reproduction and the transmission processes. Therefore, there exists a shelter size gap within which the infected population becomes extinct while only the susceptible population survives. With the field data reported in the literature, we estimate that, if one confines the rodent population within a stripe region surrounded by a deadly environment with the shorter dimension between 335.5±27.2m and 547.9±78.3m, the infected population would become extinct. In addition, we introduce two factors that influence the movement of rodents, namely, the spatial asymmetry of the landscape and the sociality of rodents, to study their effects on the shelter size gap. The effects on the critical size due to environmental bias are twofold: it enhances the overall competition among rodents which increases the critical size, but on the other hand it promotes the spread of the hantavirus which reduces the critical size for the infected population. On the contrary, the sociality of rodents gives rise to a more localized population profile which promotes the spread of the hantavirus and reduces the shelter size gap. The results shed light on a possible strategy of eliminating hantavirus while preserving the integrity of food webs in ecosystems.

Influence of Climatic Factors on Human Hantavirus Infections in Latin America and the Caribbean: A Systematic Review

BACKGROUND

With the current climate change crisis and its influence on infectious disease transmission there is an increased desire to understand its impact on infectious diseases globally. Hantaviruses are found worldwide, causing infectious diseases such as haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) and hantavirus cardiopulmonary syndrome (HCPS)/hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS) in tropical regions such as Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). These regions are inherently vulnerable to climate change impacts, infectious disease outbreaks and natural disasters. Hantaviruses are zoonotic viruses present in multiple rodent hosts resident in Neotropical ecosystems within LAC and are involved in hantavirus transmission.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic review to assess the association of climatic factors with human hantavirus infections in the LAC region. Literature searches were conducted on MEDLINE and Web of Science databases for published studies according to Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) criteria. The inclusion criteria included at least eight human hantavirus cases, at least one climatic factor and study from > 1 LAC geographical location.

RESULTS

In total, 383 papers were identified within the search criteria, but 13 studies met the inclusion criteria ranging from Brazil, Chile, Argentina, Bolivia and Panama in Latin America and a single study from Barbados in the Caribbean. Multiple mathematical models were utilized in the selected studies with varying power to generate robust risk and case estimates of human hantavirus infections linked to climatic factors. Strong evidence of hantavirus disease association with precipitation and habitat type factors were observed, but mixed evidence was observed for temperature and humidity.

CONCLUSIONS

The interaction of climate and hantavirus diseases in LAC is likely complex due to the unknown identity of all vertebrate host reservoirs, circulation of multiple hantavirus strains, agricultural practices, climatic changes and challenged public health systems. There is an increasing need for more detailed systematic research on the influence of climate and other co-related social, abiotic, and biotic factors on infectious diseases in LAC to understand the complexity of vector-borne disease transmission in the Neotropics.

First Evidence of Akodon-Borne Orthohantavirus in Northeastern Argentina

Orthohantaviruses (genus Orthohantavirus, family Hantaviridae) are the etiologic agents of Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome in the Americas. In South America, orthohantaviruses are highly diverse and are hosted by sigmodontine rodents (subfamiliy Sigmodontinae, family Cricetidae), an also diverse group of rodents. The aims of this work were to (1) identify orthohantavirus hosts and (2) to study the spatial and temporal variations in the prevalence of infection and their associations with community, environmental and individual characteristics, in different environments of Misiones province, northeastern Argentina. Live-capture sessions were carried out during two years in different land uses, with a trapping effort of 31,653 trap nights. We captured 719 individuals from the species Akodon montensis, Rattus rattus, Mus musculus, Calomys tener, Thaptomys nigrita, Oligoryzomys nigripes, Euryoryzomys russatus, Oligoryzomys flavescens, Brucepattersonius sp., and Juliomys pictipes. Antibodies against orthohantavirus were detected in Akodon montensis in one natural protected and one periurban areas, and it was the most abundant species in almost every study sites. We observed the presence of spatial focality of orthohantavirus infection and a positive association with host abundance suggesting the existence of a threshold density. At the individual level, large, reproductively active, and male individuals were more likely to have antibodies against orthohantavirus. This is the first record of orthohantavirus infection in A. montensis in Argentina, which shows the importance of investigations about emerging diseases.

PARASITES OF AN ENDANGERED HARVEST MOUSE (REITHRODONTOMYS RAVIVENTRIS HALICOETES) IN A NORTHERN CALIFORNIA MARSH

Disease may limit recovery of endangered species. We surveyed parasites in the federally endangered salt marsh harvest mouse (SMHM; Reithrodontomys raviventris halicoetes) and sympatric rodents in Suisun Marsh (Solano County, California, USA) from April 2018 through March 2019. We investigated individual SMHM risk factors (age, sex, reproductive status, and body condition) for infection and relationships among the estimated parasite prevalence and season and habitat management (natural tidal habitats versus diked, nontidal habitats). We captured 625 individual rodents, including 439 SMHM, and tested these for infection with Bartonella spp., Borrelia spp., Rickettsia spp., Francisella tularensis, Leptospira spp., Cryptosporidium spp., Giardia spp., and Toxoplasma gondii by PCR. Over one-third (34.6%, confidence interval [CI], 30.2%-39.3%) of SMHM tested positive for at least one parasite. Four percent (CI, 2.8%-6.3%) of SMHM were infected with F. tularensis holarctica, a virulent bacterium that causes mortality in rodents shortly after infection. Additionally, we detected three species of Bartonella (B. henselae, B. rochalimae, B. vinsonii arupensis), Leptospira borgpetersenii serovar Ballum, Cryptosporidium sp. (deer mouse [Peromyscus maniculatus] genotype), Cryptosporidium parvum, Giardia intestinalis, and an unidentified Borrelia sp. The only parasite that was associated with habitat management was Bartonella spp., which was more prevalent in diked than tidal areas. Male SMHM were more likely to be parasitized than females, and individuals in modestly poor body condition were most likely to be infected with Bartonella spp. The estimated sample prevalence of multiple parasites varied by season and by host species. This is the first major parasite assessment in a long-endangered species, and these results will assist managers to incorporate parasitic disease into recovery planning and provide a critical baseline for future investigations, including how climatically induced habitat and species composition changes could alter disease dynamics.

Impact of Predator Exclusion and Habitat on Seroprevalence of New World Orthohantavirus Harbored by Two Sympatric Rodents within the Interior Atlantic Forest

Understanding how perturbations to trophic interactions influence virus-host dynamics is essential in the face of ongoing biodiversity loss and the continued emergence of RNA viruses and their associated zoonoses. Herein, we investigated the role of predator exclusion on rodent communities and the seroprevalence of hantaviruses within the Reserva Natural del Bosque Mbaracayú (RNBM), which is a protected area of the Interior Atlantic Forest (IAF). In the IAF, two sympatric rodent reservoirs, Akodon montensis and Oligoryzomys nigripes, harbor Jaborá and Juquitiba hantavirus (JABV, JUQV), respectively. In this study, we employed two complementary methods for predator exclusion: comprehensive fencing and trapping/removal. The goal of exclusion was to preclude the influence of predation on small mammals on the sampling grids and thereby potentially reduce rodent mortality. Following baseline sampling on three grid pairs with different habitats, we closed the grids and began predator removal. By sampling three habitat types, we controlled for habitat-specific effects, which is important for hantavirus-reservoir dynamics in neotropical ecosystems. Our six-month predator exclusion experiment revealed that the exclusion of terrestrial mammalian predators had little influence on the rodent community or the population dynamics of A. montensis and O. nigripes. Instead, fluctuations in species diversity and species abundances were influenced by sampling session and forest degradation. These results suggest that seasonality and landscape composition play dominant roles in the prevalence of hantaviruses in rodent reservoirs in the IAF ecosystem.

Influence of Season, Population and Individual Characteristics on the Prevalence of Leptospira spp. in Bank Voles in North-West Germany

Simple Summary

Leptospirosis is a worldwide emerging zoonotic disease. Clinical symptoms in humans range from mild flu-like symptoms to severe clinical disease with kidney failure and multiple organ dysfunction. Infections occur after contact with infected animals or through water and soil contaminated by urine of infected animals. Cases are mostly linked to occupational risk groups such as field workers or farmers, but contact with pets and recreational activities like fresh water sports also lead to a higher exposure risk. This study was conducted to evaluate the prevalence and species distribution of Leptospira in bank voles in Germany. We analyzed the DNA of 1817 kidney samples and detected a mean prevalence of 7.5% with the following pathogenic Leptospira species: L. interrogans, L. kirschneri, and L. borgpetersenii. The individual infection risk in bank voles depended on season, body weight and abundance of bank voles. Even if leptospirosis case numbers in Germany are low, our study shows that pathogenic Leptospira spp. are present and a potential source for human infection, which should be recognized by clinicians and veterinarians.

Abstract

Leptospirosis is a worldwide zoonotic disease with more than 1 million human cases annually. Infections are associated with direct contact to infected animals or indirect contact to contaminated water or soil. As not much is known about the prevalence and host specificity of Leptospira spp. in bank voles (Clethrionomys glareolus), our study aimed to evaluate Leptospira spp. prevalence and genomospecies distribution as well as the influence of season, host abundance and individual characteristics on the Leptospira prevalence. Bank voles, which are abundant and widely distributed in forest habitats, were collected in the years 2018 to 2020 in North-West Germany, covering parts of North Rhine-Westphalia and Lower Saxony. The DNA of 1817 kidney samples was analyzed by real-time PCR targeting the lipl32 gene. Positive samples were further analyzed by targeting the secY gene to determine Leptospira genomospecies and multilocus sequence typing (MLST) to determine the sequence type (ST). The overall prevalence was 7.5% (95% confidence interval: 6.4–8.9). Leptospira interrogans (83.3%), L. kirschneri (11.5%) and L. borgpetersenii (5.2%) were detected in bank voles. Increasing body weight as a proxy for age increased the individual infection probability. Only in years with high bank vole abundance was this probability significantly higher in males than in females. Even if case numbers of human leptospirosis in Germany are low, our study shows that pathogenic Leptospira spp. are present and thus a persisting potential source for human infection.

Long-Term Rodent Surveillance after Outbreak of Hantavirus Infection, Yosemite National Park, California, USA, 2012

In 2012, a total of 9 cases of hantavirus infection occurred in overnight visitors to Yosemite Valley, Yosemite National Park, California, USA. In the 6 years after the initial outbreak investigation, the California Department of Public Health conducted 11 rodent trapping events in developed areas of Yosemite Valley and 6 in Tuolumne Meadows to monitor the relative abundance of deer mice (Peromyscus maniculatus) and seroprevalence of Sin Nombre orthohantavirus, the causative agent of hantavirus pulmonary syndrome. Deer mouse trap success in Yosemite Valley remained lower than that observed during the 2012 outbreak investigation. Seroprevalence of Sin Nombre orthohantavirus in deer mice during 2013–2018 was also lower than during the outbreak, but the difference was not statistically significant (p = 0.02). The decreased relative abundance of Peromyscus spp. mice in developed areas of Yosemite Valley after the outbreak is probably associated with increased rodent exclusion efforts and decreased peridomestic habitat.

Moving to healthier landscapes: Forest restoration decreases the abundance of Hantavirus reservoir rodents in tropical forests

Hantavirus Cardiopulmonary Syndrome (HCPS) is a disease with high human lethality rates, whose transmission risk is directly related to the abundance of reservoir rodents. In the Brazilian Atlantic forest, the main reservoirs species, Oligoryzomys nigripes and Necromys lasiurus, are thought to increase in abundance with deforestation. Therefore, forest restoration may contribute to decrease HCPS transmission risk, a topic still unexplored, especially in tropical regions. Aiming at filling this research gap, we quantified the potential of forest restoration, as required by the current environmental legislation, to reduce the abundance of Hantavirus reservoir rodents in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest. Using a dataset on small mammal communities sampled at 104 sites, we modeled how the abundance of these two rodent species change with the percentage of forest cover and forest edge density. From the best model, we extrapolated rodent abundance to the entire Atlantic Forest, considering two scenarios: current and restored forest cover. Comparing the estimated abundance between these two scenarios, we show that forest restoration can reduce the abundance of O. nigripes up to 89.29% in 43.43% of Atlantic forest territory. For N. lasiurus, abundance decreased up to 46% in 44% of the Atlantic forest. To our knowledge, this is the first study linking forest restoration and zoonotic diseases. Our results indicate that forest restoration would decrease the chance of HCPS transmission in ~45% of the Atlantic forest, making the landscape healthier to ~2,8 million people living within this area. This positive effect of restoration on disease regulation should be considered as an additional argument to encourage and promote forest restoration in tropical areas around the world.

Mixed Effects of Habitat Degradation and Resources on Hantaviruses in Sympatric Wild Rodent Reservoirs within a Neotropical Forest

Understanding the ecology of rodent-borne hantaviruses is critical to assessing the risk of spillover to humans. Longitudinal surveys have suggested that hantaviral prevalence in a given host population is tightly linked to rodent ecology and correlates with changes in the species composition of a rodent community over time and/or habitat composition. We tested two hypotheses to identify whether resource addition and/or habitat composition may affect hantavirus prevalence among two sympatric reservoir hosts in a neotropical forest: (i) increased food resources will alter the rodent community and thus hantaviral prevalence; and (ii) host abundance and viral seroprevalence will be associated with habitat composition. We established a baseline of rodent-virus prevalence in three grid pairs of distinct habitat compositions and subjected one grid of each pair to resource augmentation. Increased rodent species diversity was observed on grids where food was added versus untreated control grids during the first post-treatment sampling session. Resource augmentation changed species community composition, yet it did not affect the prevalence of hantavirus in the host population over time, nor was there evidence of a dilution effect. Secondly, we show that the prevalence of the virus in the respective reservoir hosts was associated with habitat composition at two spatial levels, independent of resource addition, supporting previous findings that habitat composition is a primary driver of the prevalence of hantaviruses in the neotropics.

Why Hantavirus Prevalence Does Not Always Increase With Host Density: Modeling the Role of Host Spatial Behavior and Maternal Antibodies

For wildlife diseases, one often relies on host density to predict host infection prevalence and the subsequent force of infection to humans in the case of zoonoses. Indeed, if transmission is mainly indirect, i.e., by way of the environment, the force of infection is expected to increase with host density, yet the laborious field data supporting this theoretical claim are often absent. Hantaviruses are among those zoonoses that have been studied extensively over the past decades, as they pose a significant threat to humans. In Europe, the most widespread hantavirus is the Puumala virus (PUUV), which is carried by the bank vole and causes nephropathia epidemica (NE) in humans. Extensive field campaigns have been carried out in Central Finland to shed light on this supposed relationship between bank vole density and PUUV prevalence and to identify other drivers for the infection dynamics. This resulted in the surprising observation that the relationship between bank vole density and PUUV prevalence is not purely monotonic on an annual basis, contrary to what previous models predicted: a higher vole density does not necessary result in a higher infection prevalence, nor in an increased number of humans reported having NE. Here, we advance a novel individual-based spatially-explicit model which takes into account the immunity provided by maternal antibodies and which simulates the spatial behavior of the host, both possible causes for this discrepancy that were not accounted for in previous models. We show that the reduced prevalence in peak years can be attributed to transient immunity, and that the density-dependent spatial vole behavior, i.e., the fact that home ranges are smaller in high density years, plays only a minor role. The applicability of the model is not limited to the study and prediction of PUUV (and NE) occurrence in Europe, as it could be easily adapted to model other rodent-borne diseases, either with indirect or direct transmission.

Mathematical models for diseases in wildlife populations with indirect transmission

In this paper, five different models for five different kinds of diseases occurring in wildlife populations are introduced. In all models, a logistic growth term is taken into account and the disease is transmitted to the susceptible population indirectly through an environment reservoir. The time evolution of these diseases is described together with its spatial propagation.

The character of spatial homogeneous equilibria against the uniform and non-uniform perturbations together with the occurrence of Hopf bifurcations are discussed through a linear stability analysis. No Turing instability is observed.

The partial differential field equations are also integrated numerically to validate the stability results herein obtained and to extract additional information on the temporal and spatial behavior of the different diseases.

Ecology of Neglected Rodent-Borne American Orthohantaviruses

The number of documented American orthohantaviruses has increased significantly over recent decades, but most fundamental research has remained focused on just two of them: Andes virus (ANDV) and Sin Nombre virus (SNV). The majority of American orthohantaviruses are known to cause disease in humans, and most of these pathogenic strains were not described prior to human cases, indicating the importance of understanding all members of the virus clade. In this review, we summarize information on the ecology of under-studied rodent-borne American orthohantaviruses to form general conclusions and highlight important gaps in knowledge. Information regarding the presence and genetic diversity of many orthohantaviruses throughout the distributional range of their hosts is minimal and would significantly benefit from virus isolations to indicate a reservoir role. Additionally, few studies have investigated the mechanisms underlying transmission routes and factors affecting the environmental persistence of orthohantaviruses, limiting our understanding of factors driving prevalence fluctuations. As landscapes continue to change, host ranges and human exposure to orthohantaviruses likely will as well. Research on the ecology of neglected orthohantaviruses is necessary for understanding both current and future threats to human health.

New data about home range and movements of Oligoryzomys flavescens (Rodentia: Cricetidae) help to understand the spread and transmission of Andes virus that causes Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome

Hantavirus pulmonary syndrome is an emerging infectious disease caused by viruses of the genus Orthohantavirus. The rodent Oligoryzomys flavescens is distributed along four countries of South America. In Argentina, O. flavescens acts as a reservoir of three genotypes of ANDV orthohantavirus. The aims of this work were to estimate home range size and movements-with spool-and-line and radiotelemetry-of infected and non-infected O. flavescens in order to understand the spread and transmission of the virus. O. flavescens use a wide area to satisfice its requirements, reaching a home range of 1.82 ha during spring. Orthohantavirus infection did not change the behaviour of individuals. We observed a great overlapping in the home range of infected and non-infected individuals resulting in a high probability of virus dispersion on rodent population. These results show that human health risks could be high on island environments and knowledge about the movement ecology of O. flavescens provides useful information on prevention.

Mechanisms of Hantavirus Transmission in Oligoryzomys longicaudatus

The cricetid rodent Oligoryzomys longicaudatus is the species host of Andes virus (ANDV) which causes hantavirus pulmonary syndrome in southern Argentina and Chile. Population density, behavioral interactions, and spacing patterns are factors that affect viral transmission among wild rodents. We predict that the highest prevalence of hantavirus antibody positive would be found among wounded, reproductive males and that, at high population densities, wounded, reproductive males would be dispersers rather than resident individuals. The study was conducted seasonally from October (spring) 2011 to October (spring) 2013 in a shrubland habitat of Cholila, Argentina. During each trapping session, we classified captured O. longicaudatus as resident or disperser individuals, estimated population density, and recorded wounds as an indicator of aggression among individuals. We obtained blood samples from each individual for serological testing. We used generalized linear models to test the statistical significance of association between antibody prevalence, and sex, resident/dispersal status, wounds and trapping session. The highest proportion of seropositive O. longicaudatus individuals was among wounded reproductive males during periods of the greatest population density, and the characteristics of seroconverted individuals support that transmission is horizontal through male intrasexual competition. A positive association between dispersing individuals and hantavirus antibody was detected at high population density. Our study design allowed us to obtain data on a large number of individuals that are seroconverted, enabling a better understanding of the ecology and epidemiology of the ANDV host system.

Density dependence and persistence of Morogoro arenavirus transmission in a fluctuating population of its reservoir host

A key aim in wildlife disease ecology is to understand how host and parasite characteristics influence parasite transmission and persistence. Variation in host population density can have strong impacts on transmission and outbreaks, and theory predicts particular transmission-density patterns depending on how parasites are transmitted between individuals. Here, we present the results of a study on the dynamics of Morogoro arenavirus in a population of multimammate mice (Mastomys natalensis). This widespread African rodent, which is also the reservoir host of Lassa arenavirus in West Africa, is known for its strong seasonal density fluctuations driven by food availability. We investigated to what degree virus transmission changes with host population density and how the virus might be able to persist during periods of low host density. A seven-year capture-mark-recapture study was conducted in Tanzania where rodents were trapped monthly and screened for the presence of antibodies against Morogoro virus. Observed seasonal seroprevalence patterns were compared with those generated by mathematical transmission models to test different hypotheses regarding the degree of density dependence and the role of chronically infected individuals. We observed that Morogoro virus seroprevalence correlates positively with host density with a lag of 1-4 months. Model results suggest that the observed seasonal seroprevalence dynamics can be best explained by a combination of vertical and horizontal transmission and that a small number of animals need to be infected chronically to ensure viral persistence. Transmission dynamics and viral persistence were best explained by the existence of both acutely and chronically infected individuals and by seasonally changing transmission rates. Due to the presence of chronically infected rodents, rodent control is unlikely to be a feasible approach for eliminating arenaviruses such as Lassa virus from Mastomys populations.

Characterization of the Puumala orthohantavirus Strains in the Northwestern Region of the Republic of Tatarstan in Relation to the Clinical Manifestations in Hemorrhagic Fever With Renal Syndrome Patients

Over 1,000 cases of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) were recorded in the Republic of Tatarstan (RT) in 2015. HFRS is a zoonotic disease caused by several different Old World hantaviruses. In RT, Puumala orthohantavirus (PUUV) is a prevalent etiological agent of HFRS. We looked for the genetic link between the PUUV strains isolated from the bank voles and from the infected humans. In addition, possible correlation between the genetic makeup of the PUUV strain involved and different clinical picture of HFRS was investigated. Partial PUUV small (S) genome segment sequences were retrieved from 37 small animals captured in the northwestern region of RT in 2015. Phylogenetic analysis revealed that 34 PUUV sequences clustered with strains of the previously identified “Russia” (RUS) genetic lineage, while 3 remaining PUUV sequences clustered with the known lineage from Finland (FIN). Sequence comparisons showed that the majority of the S-segment sequences isolated in the current study displayed 98.2–100.0% sequence identity when compared with the strains isolated earlier from the HFRS patients hospitalized in Kazan city. HFRS patients infected with PUUV strains of either RUS or FIN genetic lineages were observed to have consistent differences in clinical presentation of the disease and laboratory findings. These findings indicated a strong genetic link between the infected bank voles and human HFRS cases from the same localities. Thus, S-segment sequences of the PUUV strains isolated from HFRS patients could serve as a molecular marker for determining the likely geographic area where infection occurred.

Does the widely distributed rodent Calomys tener (Cricetidae: Sigmodontinae) constitute a single evolutionary unit?

The nominal species Calomystener (Winge, 1887) ranges broadly in open lands of the Caatinga, Cerrado, Pantanal and Mata Atlântica of Brazil, and was recently reported from the Pampas of southern Brazil, and in the Selva Paranaense of eastern Paraguay and northeastern Argentina. This rodent can be infected with the pathogenic Araraquara hantavirus in Brazil. Given that most epidemiological studies have not taken into account updated taxonomic findings of their rodent hosts, in this study, we obtained sequence data of the Cyt-b and COI genes of specimens of C.tener from 22 different geographical localities from throughout the currently known distribution of the species (including individuals from Argentina, Paraguay, Bolivia, and Brazil) to test if it constitutes a single genetic unit or if it presents genetic discontinuities that may represent different evolutionary lineages. Phylogenetic analyses including several species of Calomys recovered several clades with strong support. Regarding C.tener, it is recovered as sister to the node that cluster C.laucha (Fischer, 1814) sensu lato, C.expulsus (Lund, 1841) and species in the C.callosus (Rengger, 1830) species complex. At the intraspecific level there are no genetic gaps among haplotypes of C.tener that could suggest more than one species. The recent captures in the Pampas of southern Brazil and in the Selva Paranaense suggest that the species may be colonizing new geographic areas.

Policy and Science for Global Health Security: Shaping the Course of International Health

The global burden of infectious diseases and the increased attention to natural, accidental, and deliberate biological threats has resulted in significant investment in infectious disease research. Translating the results of these studies to inform prevention, detection, and response efforts often can be challenging, especially if prior relationships and communications have not been established with decision-makers. Whatever scientific information is shared with decision-makers before, during, and after public health emergencies is highly dependent on the individuals or organizations who are communicating with policy-makers. This article briefly describes the landscape of stakeholders involved in information-sharing before and during emergencies. We identify critical gaps in translation of scientific expertise and results, and biosafety and biosecurity measures to public health policy and practice with a focus on One Health and zoonotic diseases. Finally, we conclude by exploring ways of improving communication and funding, both of which help to address the identified gaps. By leveraging existing scientific information (from both the natural and social sciences) in the public health decision-making process, large-scale outbreaks may be averted even in low-income countries.

Transmissible vaccines in heterogeneous populations: Implications for vaccine design

Transmissible vaccines may provide a promising solution for improving the control of infectious disease, particularly zoonotic pathogens with wildlife reservoirs. Although it is well known that heterogeneity in pathogen transmission impacts the spread of infectious disease, the effects of heterogeneity on vaccine transmission are largely unknown. Here we develop and analyze a mathematical model that quantifies the potential benefits of a transmissible vaccine in a population where transmission is heterogeneous between two subgroups. Our results demonstrate that the effect of heterogeneity on the benefit of vaccine transmission largely depends on the vaccine design and the pattern of vaccine administration across subgroups. Specifically, our results show that in most cases a transmissible vaccine designed to mirror the transmission of the pathogen is optimal. If the vaccination effort can be preferentially biased towards a given subgroup, a vaccine with a pattern of transmission opposite to that of the pathogen can become optimal in some cases. To better understand the consequences of heterogeneity on the effectiveness of a transmissible vaccine in the real world, we parameterized our model using data from Sin Nombre virus in deer mice (Peromyscus maniculatus). The results of this analysis reveal that when a vaccination campaign is limited in vaccine availability, a traditional vaccine must be administered primarily to males for the spread of Sin Nombre virus to be prevented. In contrast, a transmissible vaccine remains effective even when it cannot be preferentially administered to males.

The ecological dynamics of hantavirus diseases: From environmental variability to disease prevention largely based on data from China

Hantaviruses can cause hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS) in the Americas and hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) in Eurasia. In recent decades, repeated outbreaks of hantavirus disease have led to public concern and have created a global public health burden. Hantavirus spillover from natural hosts into human populations could be considered an ecological process, in which environmental forces, behavioral determinants of exposure, and dynamics at the human–animal interface affect human susceptibility and the epidemiology of the disease. In this review, we summarize the progress made in understanding hantavirus epidemiology and rodent reservoir population biology. We mainly focus on three species of rodent hosts with longitudinal studies of sufficient scale: the striped field mouse (Apodemus agrarius, the main reservoir host for Hantaan virus [HTNV], which causes HFRS) in Asia, the deer mouse (Peromyscus maniculatus, the main reservoir host for Sin Nombre virus [SNV], which causes HPS) in North America, and the bank vole (Myodes glareolus, the main reservoir host for Puumala virus [PUUV], which causes HFRS) in Europe. Moreover, we discuss the influence of ecological factors on human hantavirus disease outbreaks and provide an overview of research perspectives.

Distributional ecology of Andes hantavirus: a macroecological approach

BACKGROUND

Hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS) is an infection endemic in Chile and Argentina, caused by Andes hantavirus (ANDV). The rodent Oligoryzomys longicaudatus is suggested as the main reservoir, although several other species of Sigmodontinae are known hosts of ANDV. Here, we explore potential ANDV transmission risk to humans in southern South America, based on eco-epidemiological associations among: six rodent host species, seropositive rodents, and human HPS cases.

METHODS

We used ecological niche modeling and macroecological approaches to determine potential geographic distributions and assess environmental similarity among rodents and human HPS cases.

RESULTS

Highest numbers of rodent species (five) were in Chile between 35° and 41°S latitude. Background similarity tests showed niche similarity in 14 of the 56 possible comparisons: similarity between human HPS cases and the background of all species and seropositive rodents was supported (except for Abrothrix sanborni). Of interest among the results is the likely role of O. longicaudatus, Loxodontomys micropus, Abrothrix olivaceus, and Abrothrix longipilis in HPS transmission to humans.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results support a role of rodent species' distributions as a risk factor for human HPS at coarse scales, and suggest that the role of the main reservoir (O. longicaudatus) may be supported by the broader rodent host community in some areas.

Spatiotemporal variation of the association between climate dynamics and HFRS outbreaks in Eastern China during 2005-2016 and its geographic determinants

Background

Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is a rodent-associated zoonosis caused by hantavirus. The HFRS was initially detected in northeast China in 1931, and since 1955 it has been detected in many regions of the country. Global climate dynamics influences HFRS spread in a complex nonlinear way. The quantitative assessment of the spatiotemporal variation of the “HFRS infections-global climate dynamics” association at a large geographical scale and during a long time period is still lacking.

Methods and findings

This work is the first study of a recently completed dataset of monthly HFRS cases in Eastern China during the period 2005–2016. A methodological synthesis that involves a time-frequency technique, a composite space-time model, hotspot analysis, and machine learning is implemented in the study of (a) the association between HFRS incidence spread and climate dynamics and (b) the geographic factors impacting this association over Eastern China during the period 2005–2016. The results showed that by assimilating core and city-specific knowledge bases the synthesis was able to depict quantitatively the space-time variation of periodic climate-HFRS associations at a large geographic scale and to assess numerically the strength of this association in the area and period of interest. It was found that the HFRS infections in Eastern China has a strong association with global climate dynamics, in particular, the 12, 18 and 36 mos periods were detected as the three main synchronous periods of climate dynamics and HFRS distribution. For the 36 mos period (which is the period with the strongest association), the space-time correlation pattern of the association strength indicated strong temporal but rather weak spatial dependencies. The generated space-time maps of association strength and association hotspots provided a clear picture of the geographic variation of the association strength that often-exhibited cluster characteristics (e.g., the south part of the study area displays a strong climate-HFRS association with non-point effects, whereas the middle-north part displays a weak climate-HFRS association). Another finding of this work is the upward climate-HFRS coherency trend for the past few years (2013–2015) indicating that the climate impacts on HFRS were becoming increasingly sensitive with time. Lastly, another finding of this work is that geographic factors affect the climate-HFRS association in an interrelated manner through local climate or by means of HFRS infections. In particular, location (latitude, distance to coastline and longitude), grassland and woodland are the geographic factors exerting the most noticeable effects on the climate-HFRS association (e.g., low latitude has a strong effect, whereas distance to coastline has a wave-like effect).

Conclusions

The proposed synthetic quantitative approach revealed important aspects of the spatiotemporal variation of the climate-HFRS association in Eastern China during a long time period, and identified the geographic factors having a major impact on this association. Both findings could improve public health policy in an HFRS-torn country like China. Furthermore, the synthetic approach developed in this work can be used to map the space-time variation of different climate-disease associations in other parts of China and the World.

China has the largest number of HFRS infections in the world (9045 cases in 2016). Previous studies have found that HFRS infections are related to climate. However, the spatiotemporal distribution of the association between HFRS outbreaks at a large scale and global climate dynamics (i.e., over Eastern China during the period 2005–2016), as well as the identification of the geographic factors impacting this association have not been studied yet. This is then the dual focus of the present study. Strong synchronicities between global climate change and HFRS infections were detected across the entire study area that were linked to three main time periods (12, 18 and 36 mos). Specifically, strong and weak associations with non-point effects were detected in the south and middle-north parts of the study region, respectively. The climate impacts on HFRS were becoming increasingly sensitive with time. On the other hand, the geographic location (north coordinate, distance to coastline, east coordinate) makes a considerable contribution to the climate-HFRS association. As regards land-use, grassland and woodland were found to play important contributing roles to climate-HFRS association. Certain space-time links between global climate dynamics and HFRS infections were confirmed at a large spatial scale and within a long time period. The above findings could improve both the understanding of the HFRS transmission pattern and the forecasting of HFRS outbreaks.

Space Use and Social Mating System of the Hantavirus Host, Oligoryzomys longicaudatus

The long-tailed mouse, Oligoryzomys longicaudatus (Cricetidae: Sigmodontinae), is the major host of Andes hantavirus, the etiological agent of hantavirus pulmonary syndrome in the south of Argentina and Chile. Studying the ecology of this species is necessary to understand how Andes hantavirus is maintained in nature. In this study, we examine the home range size and intra- and intersexual overlap degree of male and female O. longicaudatus in order to elucidate the mating system of this species. To our knowledge, this research provides the first documentation, obtained from a specific design, of spacing and mating systems in this species in Argentina. The study was conducted seasonally from April (autumn) 2012 to October (spring) 2013 in a shrubland habitat of Cholila, Andean region, Argentina. We studied spacing patterns using 59 and 51 home ranges established by adult males and females, respectively, in two 3.24 ha capture-marked and recapture grids. Significant differences between sexes in home range size and overlap degree were found. Male home ranges were always larger than those of females. We observed exclusive space use both among males and females (13.15 ± 18.67, and 3.60 ± 3.43%, respectively). Considering only those males that get access to receptive females (40%), average intersexual overlap value was about 30.82 ± 19.73%. Sexual differences in home range sizes and the spatial avoidance between breeding males, that would reflect intrasexual competition for receptive females, allows us to propose a polygynous mating system for O. longicaudatus.

A damped precipitation-driven, bottom-up model for deer mouse population abundance in the northwestern United States

Small-mammal population densities can be regulated by bottom-up (food availability) and top-down (predation) forces. In 1993, an El Niño Southern Oscillation event was followed by a cluster of human hantavirus with pulmonary syndrome in the southwestern United States. An upward trophic cascade hypothesis was proposed as an explanation for the outbreak: Increased plant productivity as a consequence of El Niño precipitations led to an unusual increase in distribution and abundance of deer mice (Peromyscus maniculatus; reservoir host of Sin Nombre virus). Could such drastic events occur in mesic habitats, where plant productivity in response to climate conditions is likely to be much less dramatic? In this work, we investigate to what extent deer mouse populations follow a precipitation-driven, bottom-up model in central and western Montana and discuss important conditions for such a model to be possible. We found positive correlations between deer mouse abundance and on-the-ground measured plant productivity with a several-month lag in three of six study sites. This effect was weaker when deer mouse populations were more abundant, indicating density-dependent effects. Dispersal resulting from territoriality may be important in attenuating local density increments in spite of high food availability. In addition, there is evidence that population abundance in the study area could respond to other abiotic factors. In particular, precipitation in the form of snow may reduce deer mice survival, thus compensating the benefits of improved plant productivity. Deer mouse populations in Montana study sites follow complex dynamics determined by multiple limiting factors, leading to a damped precipitation-driven bottom-up regulation. This prevents dramatic changes in rodent abundances after sudden increments of food availability, such as those observed in other regions.

Is species richness driving intra- and interspecific interactions and temporal activity overlap of a hantavirus host? An experimental test

High species diversity of the potential animal host community for a zoonotic pathogen may reduce pathogen transmission among the most competent host, a phenomenon called the “dilution effect”, but the mechanisms driving this effect have been little studied. One proposed mechanism is “encounter reduction” where host species of low-competency decrease contact rates between infected and susceptible competent hosts, especially in directly transmitted diseases. We conducted an experiment in outdoor enclosures in northwestern Mexico where we manipulated rodent assemblages to assess the effect of species richness on the frequency of intra- and interspecific interactions and activity patterns of a hantavirus reservoir host (North American deermouse; Peromyscus maniculatus). Trials consisted of three treatments of rodent assemblages that differed in species richness, but had equal abundance of deermice; treatment 1 consisted of only deermice, treatment 2 included deermice and one non-competent host species, and treatment 3 included two non-competent host species in addition to deermice. To measure interactions and temporal activity, we strategically deployed foraging stations and infrared cameras. We did not find differences in the frequency of intraspecific interactions of deermice among treatments, but there were significantly more interspecific interactions between deermouse and non-competent hosts in treatment 2 than treatment 3, which is explained by the identity of the non-competent host species. In addition, there were differences in activity patterns between rodent species, and also between deermice from treatment 1 and treatment 2. These results indicate that at least at a small-scale analysis, the co-occurrence with other species in the study area does not influence the frequency of intraspecific interactions of deermice, and that deermice may be changing their activity patterns to avoid a particular non-competent host species (Dipodomys merriami). In conclusion, in this deermouse-hantavirus system a potential dilution effect would not be through intraspecific encounter reduction in the most competent hantavirus host. To identify variables of host assemblages that can influence pathogen transmission, we highlight the need to address the identity of species and the composition of assemblages, not only host species richness or diversity.

INTERSPECIFIC COMPARISON OF HANTAVIRUS PREVALENCE IN PEROMYSCUS POPULATIONS FROM A FRAGMENTED AGRO-ECOSYSTEM IN INDIANA, USA

Comparatively little is known about hantavirus prevalence within rodent populations from the Midwestern US, where two species of native mice, the prairie deer mouse ( Peromyscus maniculatus bairdii) and the white-footed mouse ( Peromyscus leucopus noveboracensis), are dominant members of rodent communities. We sampled both species in central Indiana and tested individuals for presence of hantavirus antibodies to determine whether seroprevalence (percent of individuals with antibodies reactive to Sin Nombre virus antigen) differed between species, or among different habitat types within fragmented agro-ecosystems. Prevalence of hantavirus antibodies varied significantly between species, with seroprevalence in prairie deer mice (21.0%) being nearly four times higher than in white-footed mice (5.5%). Seroprevalence was almost eight times higher within the interior of row-crop fields (37.7%) occupied solely by prairie deer mouse populations, relative to field edges (5.2%) or adjacent forest habitat (6.1%). In the fragmented Midwestern agro-ecosystem of this study, prairie deer mice appear to be the dominant hantavirus reservoir, with particularly high seroprevalence in populations within the interior of row-crop fields.

Landscape, Climate and Hantavirus Cardiopulmonary Syndrome Outbreaks

We performed a literature review in order to improve our understanding of how landscape and climate drivers affect HCPS outbreaks. Anthropogenic landscape changes such as forest loss, fragmentation and agricultural land uses are related with a boost in hantavirus reservoir species abundance and hantavirus prevalence in tropical areas, increasing HCPS risk. Additionally, higher precipitation, especially in arid regions, favors an increase in vegetational biomass, which augments the resources for reservoir rodents, also increasing HCPS risk. Although these relationships were observed, few studies described it so far, and the ones that did it are concentrated in few places. To guide future research on this issue, we build a conceptual model relating landscape and climate variables with HCPS outbreaks and identified research opportunities. We point out the need for studies addressing the effects of landscape configuration, temperature and the interaction between climate and landscape variables. Critical landscape thresholds are also highly relevant, once HCPS risk transmission can increase rapidly above a certain degree of landscape degradation. These studies could be relevant to implement preventive measures, creating landscapes that can mitigate disease spread risk.

Climate change and sugarcane expansion increase Hantavirus infection risk

Hantavirus Cardiopulmonary Syndrome (HCPS) is a disease caused by Hantavirus, which is highly virulent for humans. High temperatures and conversion of native vegetation to agriculture, particularly sugarcane cultivation can alter abundance of rodent generalist species that serve as the principal reservoir host for HCPS, but our understanding of the compound effects of land use and climate on HCPS incidence remains limited, particularly in tropical regions. Here we rely on a Bayesian model to fill this research gap and to predict the effects of sugarcane expansion and expected changes in temperature on Hantavirus infection risk in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. The sugarcane expansion scenario was based on historical data between 2000 and 2010 combined with an agro-environment zoning guideline for the sugar and ethanol industry. Future evolution of temperature anomalies was derived using 32 general circulation models from scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (Representative greenhouse gases Concentration Pathways adopted by IPCC). Currently, the state of São Paulo has an average Hantavirus risk of 1.3%, with 6% of the 645 municipalities of the state being classified as high risk (HCPS risk ≥ 5%). Our results indicate that sugarcane expansion alone will increase average HCPS risk to 1.5%, placing 20% more people at HCPS risk. Temperature anomalies alone increase HCPS risk even more (1.6% for RCP4.5 and 1.7%, for RCP8.5), and place 31% and 34% more people at risk. Combined sugarcane and temperature increases led to the same predictions as scenarios that only included temperature. Our results demonstrate that climate change effects are likely to be more severe than those from sugarcane expansion. Forecasting disease is critical for the timely and efficient planning of operational control programs that can address the expected effects of sugarcane expansion and climate change on HCPS infection risk. The predicted spatial location of HCPS infection risks obtained here can be used to prioritize management actions and develop educational campaigns.

The impact of illegal waste sites on a transmission of zoonotic viruses

BACKGROUND

Illegal waste disposal impacts public health and causes aesthetic and environmental pollution. Waste disposed in places without permitted and controlled facilities can provide a ready source of nutrition and shelter for rodents and thus promote the spread of their ecto- and endoparasites. The presence of two distinct zoonotic viruses, lymphocytic choriomeningitis virus (LCMV) and tick-borne encephalitis virus (TBEV), was searched at illegal waste sites. The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence of infection with both viruses in rodents and to discuss the virus-rodent relations in such environments.

METHODS

Rodents sampled between October 2011 and April 2013 at 7 locations in the Istrian peninsula, were identified morphologically and genetically to minimize misidentification. Serological and molecular techniques were used to determine seroprevalence of infection in rodents and to detect viral RNAs. Serological testing was performed by immune fluorescence assay for detection of LCMV and TBEV specific antibodies. Real-time RT PCR was used for the detection of LCMV nucleoprotein gene and TBEV 3' non-coding region. Data were statistically analysed using SPSS statistic v2.0.

RESULTS

Out of 82 rodent sera tested, the presence of LCMV antibodies was demonstrated in 24.93%. The highest prevalence of LCMV infection was found in commensal Mus musculus (47.37%), followed by 11.53%, 19.04% and 25% prevalence of infection in A. agrarius, A. flavicolis and A. sylvaticus, respectively. The highest prevalence of infection in rodents (53.33%) was found in locations with large waste sites and high anthropogenic influence. LCMV seroprevalence was significantly lower in rodents sampled from natural habitats. Viral nucleic acids were screened in 46 samples but yielded no amplicons of LCMV or TBEV. In addition, TBEV specific antibodies were not detected.

CONCLUSIONS

Illegal waste sites have considerable impact on the area where they are located. Results have shown that the transmission of human pathogens can be significantly increased by the presence of waste sites. However, the pathogen must be endemic in the environment where the waste site is located. The introduction of a human pathogen as a consequence of the waste site in the area of interest could not be proven.

Puumala hantavirus infections in bank vole populations: host and virus dynamics in Central Europe

BACKGROUND

In Europe, bank voles (Myodes glareolus) are widely distributed and can transmit Puumala virus (PUUV) to humans, which causes a mild to moderate form of haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome, called nephropathia epidemica. Uncovering the link between host and virus dynamics can help to prevent human PUUV infections in the future. Bank voles were live trapped three times a year in 2010-2013 in three woodland plots in each of four regions in Germany. Bank vole population density was estimated and blood samples collected to detect PUUV specific antibodies.

RESULTS

We demonstrated that fluctuation of PUUV seroprevalence is dependent not only on multi-annual but also on seasonal dynamics of rodent host abundance. Moreover, PUUV infection might affect host fitness, because seropositive individuals survived better from spring to summer than uninfected bank voles. Individual space use was independent of PUUV infections.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study provides robust estimations of relevant patterns and processes of the dynamics of PUUV and its rodent host in Central Europe, which are highly important for the future development of predictive models for human hantavirus infection risk.

Temperature and population density determine reservoir regions of seasonal persistence in highland malaria

A better understanding of malaria persistence in highly seasonal environments such as highlands and desert fringes requires identifying the factors behind the spatial reservoir of the pathogen in the low season. In these 'unstable' malaria regions, such reservoirs play a critical role by allowing persistence during the low transmission season and therefore, between seasonal outbreaks. In the highlands of East Africa, the most populated epidemic regions in Africa, temperature is expected to be intimately connected to where in space the disease is able to persist because of pronounced altitudinal gradients. Here, we explore other environmental and demographic factors that may contribute to malaria's highland reservoir. We use an extensive spatio-temporal dataset of confirmed monthly Plasmodium falciparum cases from 1995 to 2005 that finely resolves space in an Ethiopian highland. With a Bayesian approach for parameter estimation and a generalized linear mixed model that includes a spatially structured random effect, we demonstrate that population density is important to disease persistence during the low transmission season. This population effect is not accounted for in typical models for the transmission dynamics of the disease, but is consistent in part with a more complex functional form of the force of infection proposed by theory for vector-borne infections, only during the low season as we discuss. As malaria risk usually decreases in more urban environments with increased human densities, the opposite counterintuitive finding identifies novel control targets during the low transmission season in African highlands.

Landscape, Environmental and Social Predictors of Hantavirus Risk in São Paulo, Brazil

Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS) is a disease caused by Hantavirus, which are negative-sense RNA viruses in the family Bunyaviridae that are highly virulent to humans. Numerous factors modify risk of Hantavirus transmission and consequent HPS risk. Human-driven landscape change can foster transmission risk by increasing numbers of habitat generalist rodent species that serve as the principal reservoir host. Climate can also affect rodent population dynamics and Hantavirus survival, and a number of social factors can influence probability of HPS transmission to humans. Evaluating contributions of these factors to HPS risk may enable predictions of future outbreaks, and is critical to development of effective public health strategies. Here we rely on a Bayesian model to quantify associations between annual HPS incidence across the state of São Paulo, Brazil (1993–2012) and climate variables (annual precipitation, annual mean temperature), landscape structure metrics (proportion of native habitat cover, number of forest fragments, proportion of area planted with sugarcane), and social factors (number of men older than 14 years and Human Development Index). We built separate models for the main two biomes of the state (cerrado and Atlantic forest). In both biomes Hantavirus risk increased with proportion of land cultivated for sugarcane and HDI, but proportion of forest cover, annual mean temperature, and population at risk also showed positive relationships in the Atlantic forest. Our analysis provides the first evidence that social, landscape, and climate factors are associated with HPS incidence in the Neotropics. Our risk map can be used to support the adoption of preventive measures and optimize the allocation of resources to avoid disease propagation, especially in municipalities that show medium to high HPS risk (> 5% of risk), and aimed at sugarcane workers, minimizing the risk of future HPS outbreaks.

A Unified Framework for the Infection Dynamics of Zoonotic Spillover and Spread

A considerable amount of disease is transmitted from animals to humans and many of these zoonoses are neglected tropical diseases. As outbreaks of SARS, avian influenza and Ebola have demonstrated, however, zoonotic diseases are serious threats to global public health and are not just problems confined to remote regions. There are two fundamental, and poorly studied, stages of zoonotic disease emergence: ‘spillover’, i.e. transmission of pathogens from animals to humans, and ‘stuttering transmission’, i.e. when limited human-to-human infections occur, leading to self-limiting chains of transmission. We developed a transparent, theoretical framework, based on a generalization of Poisson processes with memory of past human infections, that unifies these stages. Once we have quantified pathogen dynamics in the reservoir, with some knowledge of the mechanism of contact, the approach provides a tool to estimate the likelihood of spillover events. Comparisons with independent agent-based models demonstrates the ability of the framework to correctly estimate the relative contributions of human-to-human vs animal transmission. As an illustrative example, we applied our model to Lassa fever, a rodent-borne, viral haemorrhagic disease common in West Africa, for which data on human outbreaks were available. The approach developed here is general and applicable to a range of zoonoses. This kind of methodology is of crucial importance for the scientific, medical and public health communities working at the interface between animal and human diseases to assess the risk associated with the disease and to plan intervention and appropriate control measures. The Lassa case study revealed important knowledge gaps, and opportunities, arising from limited knowledge of the temporal patterns in reporting, abundance of and infection prevalence in, the host reservoir.

Many dangerous diseases emerge via spillover from animals, with limited human-to-human infection (stuttering-transmission) often being the first stage of human disease spread. Understanding the conditions (biological, environmental and socio-economic factors) that regulate spillover and disease spread is key to its mitigation. Here we are interested in questions such as: If we have quantified pathogen dynamics in the reservoir, with some knowledge of the mechanism of contact, can we estimate the likelihood of spillover events? Can we tease apart how much the disease is transmitted by animals and how much by humans? We developed a unified mathematical framework, based on Poisson processes with memory of past events, to understand the dynamics of spillover and stuttering-transmission. This framework, which can be applied across the disease transmission spectrum, allows the teasing apart of the disease burden attributed to animal-human and human-human transmission. Using this model, we can infer human disease risk based on knowledge of infection patterns in the animal reservoir host and the contact mechanisms required for transmission to humans.

Community perceptions of health and rodent-borne diseases along the Inter-Oceanic Highway in Madre de Dios, Peru

Background

Madre de Dios is located in the southeastern Amazonian region of Peru. Rodents have been estimated to be the reservoirs for up to 50 % of emerging zoonotic pathogens, including a host of viruses, bacteria, and parasites. As part of a larger study involving both human and animal research, this study serves to obtain a broader understanding of the key challenges and concerns related to health and rodent-borne illnesses from the perspective of the people living in these communities.

Methods

We used a mixed methods approach, which comprised of 12 focus group discussions, 34 key informant interviews and the application of a survey (n = 522) in four communities along the Inter-Oceanic Highway (IOH) in Madre de Dios, Peru over a two-year period.

Results

Although 90 % of survey respondents answered that rodents can transmit diseases and had seen rodents in their homes and immediate surroundings, most could not name specific rodent-borne diseases and, when probed, described rodents as pests or nuisance animals, but were not concerned about acquiring illnesses from them. Key informant interview data suggests that there has been a perceived increase in the amount of rodents in the communities since the construction of the IOH, however this potential increase was not coupled with increased knowledge about diseases or perceived risks among these key informants. Health providers also mentioned a lack of diagnostic tools specific for rodent-borne illnesses. This may be related to the fact that although a common rodent-borne disease like leptospirosis is frequently detected in the region, it is not routinely and readily diagnosed, therefore the real burden of the disease and exposure risk can be underestimated. If rodent-borne diseases are not on the radar of health professionals, they may not consider presumptive treatment, which could result in unnecessary morbidity and mortality.

Conclusion

Awareness of rodent-borne diseases is still lacking in the area, even among health care professionals within the communities, despite the known burden of diseases like leptospirosis. We expect to report further findings as we obtain more information from all the study components.

How much effort is required to accurately describe the complex ecology of a rodent-borne viral disease?

We use data collected on 18,1-ha live trapping grids monitored from 1994 through 2005 and on five of those grids through 2013 in the mesic northwestern US to illustrate the complexity of the deer mouse (Peromyscus maniculatus)/Sin Nombre virus (SNV) host-pathogen system. Important factors necessary to understand zoonotic disease ecology include those associated with distribution and population dynamics of reservoir species as well as infection dynamics. Results are based on more than 851,000 trap nights, 16,608 individual deer mice and 10,572 collected blood samples. Deer mice were distributed throughout every habitat we sampled and were present during every sampling period in all habitats except high altitude habitats over1900 m. Abundance varied greatly among locations with peak numbers occurring mostly during fall. However, peak rodent abundance occurred during fall, winter and spring during various years on three grids trapped 12 mo/yr. Prevalence of antibodies to SNV averaged 3.9% to 22.1% but no grids had mice with antibodies during every month. The maximum period without antibody-positive mice ranged from one month to 52 months, or even more at high altitude grids where deer mice were not always present. Months without antibody-positive mice were more prevalent during fall than spring. Population fluctuations were not synchronous over broad geographic areas and antibody prevalences were not well spatially consistent, differing greatly over short distances. We observed an apparently negative, but non-statistically significant relationship between average antibody prevalence and average deer mouse population abundance and a statistically significant positive relationship between the average number of antibody positive mice and average population abundance. We present data from which potential researchers can estimate the effort required to adequately describe the ecology of a rodent-borne viral system. We address different factors affecting population dynamics and hantavirus antibody prevalence and discuss the path to understanding a complex rodent-borne disease system as well as the obstacles in that path.

Environmental Variables Associated with Hantavirus Reservoirs and Other Small Rodent Species in Two National Parks in the Paraná Delta, Argentina: Implications for Disease Prevention

Hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS) is a severe zoonotic disease caused by hantaviruses hosted in various rodents species. In Argentina, its transmission to humans has been associated to exposure during activities such as farming, recreation, and tourism which are carried out in wild and rural areas. The aim of this study was to analyze the macro- and micro-habitat use and spatio-temporal variation of small sylvan rodents in Pre Delta and Islas de Santa Fe national parks, located in an HPS-endemic area of Argentina. Rodent communities were studied at six sites: two islands, a riparian forest, an inland forest, a marsh, and the margins of a pond. A total of 453 individuals of five species were captured with a trapping effort of 9471 trap-nights. Maximum species richness was found at the marsh and the pond margin sites. Abundance of rodents was influenced by flooding events. Two hantavirus reservoirs, Oligoryzomys flavescens and Akodon azarae, were identified in the area. O. flavescens was captured in every habitat, but it was dominant in Islas de Santa Fe National Park where its abundance was strongly influenced by flooding. A. azarae was captured in every habitat except on the islands. A. azarae behaved as a generalist species at a micro-habitat scale in every habitat of Pre Delta National Park except for the marsh where it selected patches with low vegetation height. Based on these results, several disease prevention measures, including the use of rodent-proof containers for food, and keeping the grass short in the camp site, are proposed in order to reduce the risk to visitors and residents of contracting HPS.