Incidence and Characteristics of Scarlet Fever, South Korea, 2008-2015

The association between the scarlet fever and meteorological factors, air pollutants and their interactions in children in northwest China

Scarlet fever (SF) is an acute respiratory transmitted disease that primarily affects children. The influence of meteorological factors and air pollutants on SF in children has been proved, but the relevant evidence in Northwest China is still lacking. Based on the weekly reported cases of SF in children in Lanzhou, northwest China, from 2014 to 2018, we used geographical detectors, distributed lag nonlinear models (DLNM), and bivariate response models to explore the influence of meteorological factors and air pollutants with SF. It was found that ozone (O3), carbon monoxide (CO), sulfur dioxide (SO2), temperature, pressure, water vapor pressure and wind speed were significantly correlated with SF based on geographical detectors. With the median as reference, the influence of high temperature, low pressure and high pressure on SF has a risk effect (relative risk (RR) > 1), and under extreme conditions, the dangerous effect was still significant. High O3 had the strongest effect at a 6-week delay, with an RR of 5.43 (95%CI: 1.74,16.96). The risk effect of high SO2 was strongest in the week of exposure, and the maximum risk effect was 1.37 (95%CI: 1.08,1.73). The interactions showed synergistic effects between high temperatures and O3, high pressure and high SO2, high nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and high particulate matter with diameter of less than 10 μm (PM10), respectively. In conclusion, high temperature, pressure, high O3 and SO2 were the most important factors affecting the occurrence of SF in children, which will provide theoretical support for follow-up research and disease prevention policy formulation.

Detection of toxigenic M1UK lineage group A Streptococcus clones in Taiwan

BACKGROUND

A new sublineage of emm1 group A Streptococcus (GAS), M1UK, has emerged in Europe, North America, and Australia. Notably, a significant portion of emm1 isolates in Asia, particularly in Hong Kong and mainland China, acquired scarlet fever-associated prophages following the 2011 Hong Kong scarlet fever outbreak. However, the presence of the M1UK sublineage has not yet been detected in Asia.

METHODS

This study included 181 GAS isolates (2011-2021). The emm type of these isolates were determined, and 21 emm1 isolates from blood or pleural fluid (2011-2021) and 10 emm1 isolates from throat swabs (2016-2018) underwent analysis. The presence of the scarlet fever-associated prophages and the specific single nucleotide polymorphisms of the M1UK clone were determined by polymerase chain reaction and the genome sequencing.

RESULTS

The M1UK lineage strains from throat swab and blood samples were identified. One of the M1UK strain in Taiwan carried the scarlet fever-associated prophage and therefore acquired the ssa, speC, and spd1 toxin repertoire. Nonetheless, the increase of M1UK was not observed until 2021, and there was a reduction in the diversity of emm types in 2020-2021, possibly due to the COVID-19 pandemic restriction policies in Taiwan.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggested that the M1UK lineage clone has introduced in Taiwan. In Taiwan, the COVID-19 restrictions were officially released in March 2023; therefore, it would be crucial to continuously monitor the M1UK expansion and its related diseases in the post COVID-19 era.

Early Warning and Prediction of Scarlet Fever in China Using the Baidu Search Index and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average With Explanatory Variable (ARIMAX) Model: Time Series Analysis

BACKGROUND

Internet-derived data and the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and ARIMA with explanatory variable (ARIMAX) models are extensively used for infectious disease surveillance. However, the effectiveness of the Baidu search index (BSI) in predicting the incidence of scarlet fever remains uncertain.

OBJECTIVE

Our objective was to investigate whether a low-cost BSI monitoring system could potentially function as a valuable complement to traditional scarlet fever surveillance in China.

METHODS

ARIMA and ARIMAX models were developed to predict the incidence of scarlet fever in China using data from the National Health Commission of the People's Republic of China between January 2011 and August 2022. The procedures included establishing a keyword database, keyword selection and filtering through Spearman rank correlation and cross-correlation analyses, construction of the scarlet fever comprehensive search index (CSI), modeling with the training sets, predicting with the testing sets, and comparing the prediction performances.

RESULTS

The average monthly incidence of scarlet fever was 4462.17 (SD 3011.75) cases, and annual incidence exhibited an upward trend until 2019. The keyword database contained 52 keywords, but only 6 highly relevant ones were selected for modeling. A high Spearman rank correlation was observed between the scarlet fever reported cases and the scarlet fever CSI (rs=0.881). We developed the ARIMA(4,0,0)(0,1,2)(12) model, and the ARIMA(4,0,0)(0,1,2)(12) + CSI (Lag=0) and ARIMAX(1,0,2)(2,0,0)(12) models were combined with the BSI. The 3 models had a good fit and passed the residuals Ljung-Box test. The ARIMA(4,0,0)(0,1,2)(12), ARIMA(4,0,0)(0,1,2)(12) + CSI (Lag=0), and ARIMAX(1,0,2)(2,0,0)(12) models demonstrated favorable predictive capabilities, with mean absolute errors of 1692.16 (95% CI 584.88-2799.44), 1067.89 (95% CI 402.02-1733.76), and 639.75 (95% CI 188.12-1091.38), respectively; root mean squared errors of 2036.92 (95% CI 929.64-3144.20), 1224.92 (95% CI 559.04-1890.79), and 830.80 (95% CI 379.17-1282.43), respectively; and mean absolute percentage errors of 4.33% (95% CI 0.54%-8.13%), 3.36% (95% CI -0.24% to 6.96%), and 2.16% (95% CI -0.69% to 5.00%), respectively. The ARIMAX models outperformed the ARIMA models and had better prediction performances with smaller values.

CONCLUSIONS

This study demonstrated that the BSI can be used for the early warning and prediction of scarlet fever, serving as a valuable supplement to traditional surveillance systems.

Epidemiological characteristics and spatiotemporal clustering of scarlet fever in Liaoning Province, China, 2010-2019

BACKGROUND

To explore the epidemiological characteristics and spatiotemporal distribution of scarlet fever in Liaoning Province, which could provide scientific evidence for the formulation and improvement of prevention and control strategies and measures.

METHODS

Data on scarlet fever cases and population were obtained from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention in Liaoning Province between 2010 and 2019. We examined the spatial and spatiotemporal clusters of scarlet fever across Liaoning Province using the Moran's I, local indicators of spatial association, local Gi* hotspot statistics, and Kulldorff's retrospective space-time scan statistical analysis.

RESULTS

Between 1st January 2010 and 31st December 2019, 46,652 cases of scarlet fever were reported in Liaoning Province, with an annual average incidence of 10.67 per 100,000. The incidence of scarlet fever had obvious seasonality with high incidence in early summer June and early winter December. The male-to-female ratio was 1.53:1. The highest incidence of cases occurred in 3-9 year old children. The most likely spatiotemporal cluster and the secondary clusters were detected in urban regions of Shenyang and Dalian, Liaoning Province.

CONCLUSIONS

The incidence of scarlet fever has obvious spatiotemporal clustering, with the high-risk areas mainly concentrated in urban area of Shenyang and Dalian, Liaoning Province. Control strategies need to focus on high-risk season, high-risk areas and high-risk populations in order to reduce the incidence of scarlet fever.

Patterns in the Incidence of Scarlet Fever Among Children Aged 0-9 Years - China, 2010-2019

Introduction

This study investigates the patterns of scarlet fever among Chinese children aged 0-9 years from 2010 to 2019. The objective is to provide insights that may inform potential adjustments to China's current prevention and control tactics for this illness.

Methods

The present study utilized data on the occurrence of scarlet fever in children from 2010 to 2019, sourced from the National Notifiable Disease Reporting System database, managed by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. This research implemented SAS9.4 software to construct trajectory models representing the temporal incidence of scarlet fever, accounting for key variables such as sex, geographic region, urban versus rural dwellings, and various age brackets.

Results

From 2010 to 2019, a total of 554,695 scarlet fever cases were reported among children aged 0-9 years in the 31 mainland Chinese provincial-level administrative divisions, signifying a rate of 35.36 per 100,000 individuals. An inconsistent yet generally rising trend was observed, evidenced by a 3.17-fold increase in reported cases and a 3.02-fold escalation in incidence rate over this period. Examination of these trends revealed three distinctive developmental patterns for both males and females, with the lowest prevalence in the first trajectory and the highest in the third. The incidence was consistently higher among males than females in all trajectories. The urban and northern regions displayed equal or greater trajectory rates than their rural and southern counterparts, respectively. In terms of age groups, the lowest incidence was observed in the 0-1-year age group, while the highest was recorded in the 4-5 and 6-7-year age groups.

Conclusions

Between 2010 and 2019, there was a marked increase in the incidence of scarlet fever among children in China. The disease predominantly impacts urban-dwelling children, ranging from 4 to 7 years old, in the northern regions of the country. The incidence is reported to be higher among boys compared to girls.

Insertion of an immunodominant T helper cell epitope within the Group A Streptococcus M protein promotes an IFN-γ-dependent shift from a non-protective to a protective immune response

The common pathogen Group A Streptococcus (GAS, Streptococcus pyogenes) is an extracellular bacterium that is associated with a multitude of infectious syndromes spanning a wide range of severity. The surface-exposed M protein is a major GAS virulence factor that is also target for protective antibody responses. In this study, we use a murine immunization model to investigate aspects of the cellular and molecular foundation for protective adaptive immune responses generated against GAS. We show that a wild type M1 GAS strain induces a non-protective antibody response, while an isogenic strain carrying the immunodominant 2W T helper cell epitope within the M protein elicits an immune response that is protective against the parental non-recombinant M1 GAS strain. Although the two strains induce total anti-GAS IgG levels of similar magnitude, only the 2W-carrying strain promotes elevated titers of the complement-fixing IgG2c subclass. Protection is dependent on IFN-γ, and IFN-γ-deficient mice show a specific reduction in IgG2c levels. Our findings suggest that inclusion of the 2W T cell epitope in the M protein confers essential qualitative alterations in the adaptive immune response against GAS, and that sparsity in IFN-γ-promoting Th cell epitopes in the M protein may constitute an immune evasion mechanism, evolved to allow the pathogen to avoid attack by complement-fixing antibodies.

Pathogenesis, epidemiology and control of Group A Streptococcus infection

Streptococcus pyogenes (Group A Streptococcus; GAS) is exquisitely adapted to the human host, resulting in asymptomatic infection, pharyngitis, pyoderma, scarlet fever or invasive diseases, with potential for triggering post-infection immune sequelae. GAS deploys a range of virulence determinants to allow colonization, dissemination within the host and transmission, disrupting both innate and adaptive immune responses to infection. Fluctuating global GAS epidemiology is characterized by the emergence of new GAS clones, often associated with the acquisition of new virulence or antimicrobial determinants that are better adapted to the infection niche or averting host immunity. The recent identification of clinical GAS isolates with reduced penicillin sensitivity and increasing macrolide resistance threatens both frontline and penicillin-adjunctive antibiotic treatment. The World Health Organization (WHO) has developed a GAS research and technology road map and has outlined preferred vaccine characteristics, stimulating renewed interest in the development of safe and effective GAS vaccines.

Epidemiological Impact of the Pediatric Live Attenuated Influenza Vaccine (LAIV) Program on Group A Streptococcus (GAS) Infection in England

Background

Influenza is known to predispose to secondary bacterial infections including invasive group A streptococcal (iGAS) disease. The universal pediatric live attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV) program introduced in England from the 2013/2014 influenza season was implemented incrementally, introducing cohorts of children annually to 2-16 years of coverage. Additionally, from the beginning of the program, discrete pilot areas offered LAIV vaccination to all primary school-age children, allowing for a unique comparison of infection rates between pilot and nonpilot areas during the program rollout.

Methods

Cumulative incidence rate ratios (IRRs) of GAS infections (all), scarlet fever (SF), and iGAS infection within each season by age group were compared for pilot and nonpilot areas using Poisson regression. The overall effect of the pilot program in the pre- (2010/2011-2012/2013 seasons) and postintroduction (2013/2014-2016/2017 seasons) periods was assessed using negative binomial regression by comparing changes in incidence between pilot/nonpilot areas (ratio of IRR [rIRR]).

Results

Reductions in IRRs of GAS and SF were observed within most post-LAIV program seasons, among the age groups 2-4 and 5-10 years. Significant reductions were seen among 5-10 years (rIRR, 0.57; 95% CI, 0.45-0.71; P < .001), 2-4 years (rIRR, 0.62; 95% CI, 0.43-0.90; P = .011), and 11-16 years (rIRR, 0.63; 95% CI, 0.43-0.90; P = .018) for GAS infections when assessing the overall effect of the program.

Conclusions

Our findings suggest that vaccination with LAIV may be associated with a reduced risk of GAS infection and support attaining high uptake of childhood influenza vaccination.

Group A streptococcal disease in paediatric inpatients: a European perspective

Group A streptococcal (GAS) disease shows increasing incidence worldwide. We characterised children admitted with GAS infection to European hospitals and studied risk factors for severity and disability. This is a prospective, multicentre, cohort study (embedded in EUCLIDS and the Swiss Pediatric Sepsis Study) including 320 children, aged 1 month to 18 years, admitted with GAS infection to 41 hospitals in 6 European countries from 2012 to 2016. Demographic, clinical, microbiological and outcome data were collected. A total of 195 (61%) patients had sepsis. Two hundred thirty-six (74%) patients had GAS detected from a normally sterile site. The most common infection sites were the lower respiratory tract (LRTI) (22%), skin and soft tissue (SSTI) (23%) and bone and joint (19%). Compared to patients not admitted to PICU, patients admitted to PICU more commonly had LRTI (39 vs 8%), infection without a focus (22 vs 8%) and intracranial infection (9 vs 3%); less commonly had SSTI and bone and joint infections (p < 0.001); and were younger (median 40 (IQR 21-83) vs 56 (IQR 36-85) months, p = 0.01). Six PICU patients (2%) died. Sequelae at discharge from hospital were largely limited to patients admitted to PICU (29 vs 3%, p < 0.001; 12% overall) and included neurodisability, amputation, skin grafts, hearing loss and need for surgery. More patients were recruited in winter and spring (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

In an era of observed marked reduction in vaccine-preventable infections, GAS infection requiring hospital admission is still associated with significant severe disease in younger children, and short- and long-term morbidity. Further advances are required in the prevention and early recognition of GAS disease.

WHAT IS KNOWN

• Despite temporal and geographical variability, there is an increase of incidence of infection with group A streptococci. However, data on the epidemiology of group A streptococcal infections in European children is limited.

WHAT IS NEW

• In a large, prospective cohort of children with community-acquired bacterial infection requiring hospitalisation in Europe, GAS was the most frequent pathogen, with 12% disability at discharge, and 2% mortality in patients with GAS infection. • In children with GAS sepsis, IVIG was used in only 4.6% of patients and clindamycin in 29% of patients.

Epidemiological trend in scarlet fever incidence in China during the COVID-19 pandemic: A time series analysis

Objective

Over the past decade, scarlet fever has caused a relatively high economic burden in various regions of China. Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) are necessary because of the absence of vaccines and specific drugs. This study aimed to characterize the demographics of patients with scarlet fever, describe its spatiotemporal distribution, and explore the impact of NPIs on the disease in the era of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China.

Methods

Using monthly scarlet fever data from January 2011 to December 2019, seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA), advanced innovation state-space modeling framework that combines Box-Cox transformations, Fourier series with time-varying coefficients, and autoregressive moving average error correction method (TBATS) models were developed to select the best model for comparing between the expected and actual incidence of scarlet fever in 2020. Interrupted time series analysis (ITSA) was used to explore whether NPIs have an effect on scarlet fever incidence, while the intervention effects of specific NPIs were explored using correlation analysis and ridge regression methods.

Results

From 2011 to 2017, the total number of scarlet fever cases was 400,691, with children aged 0-9 years being the main group affected. There were two annual incidence peaks (May to June and November to December). According to the best prediction model TBATS (0.002, {0, 0}, 0.801, {<12, 5>}), the number of scarlet fever cases was 72,148 and dual seasonality was no longer prominent. ITSA showed a significant effect of NPIs of a reduction in the number of scarlet fever episodes (β2 = -61526, P < 0.005), and the effect of canceling public events (c3) was the most significant (P = 0.0447).

Conclusions

The incidence of scarlet fever during COVID-19 was lower than expected, and the total incidence decreased by 80.74% in 2020. The results of this study indicate that strict NPIs may be of potential benefit in preventing scarlet fever occurrence, especially that related to public event cancellation. However, it is still important that vaccines and drugs are available in the future.

The dynamics of scarlet fever in The Netherlands, 1906-1920: a historical analysis

Background. Scarlet fever, an infectious disease caused by Streptococcus pyogenes, largely disappeared in developed countries during the twentieth century. In recent years, scarlet fever is on the rise again, and there is a need for a better understanding of possible factors driving transmission. Methods. Using historical case notification data from the three largest cities in The Netherlands (Amsterdam, Rotterdam and The Hague) from 1906 to 1920, we inferred the transmission rate for scarlet fever using time-series susceptible-infected-recovered (TSIR) methods. Through additive regression modelling, we investigated the contributions of meteorological variables and school term times to transmission rates. Results. Estimated transmission rates varied by city, and were highest overall for Rotterdam, the most densely populated city at that time. High temperature, seasonal precipitation levels and school term timing were associated with transmission rates, but the roles of these factors were limited and not consistent over all three cities. Conclusions. While weather factors alone can only explain a small portion of the variability in transmission rates, these results help understand the historical dynamics of scarlet fever infection in an era with less advanced sanitation and no antibiotic treatment and may offer insights into the driving factors associated with its recent resurgence.

Collateral Impact of COVID-19 Prevention Measures on Re-Emergence of Scarlet Fever and Pertussis in Mainland China and Hong Kong China

The incidence of scarlet fever and pertussis has increased significantly in China in recent years. During the COVID-19 pandemic, stringent non-pharmaceutical intervention measures were widely adopted to contain the spread of the virus, which may also have essential collateral impacts on other infectious diseases, such as scarlet fever and pertussis. We compared the incidence data of scarlet fever and pertussis in Mainland China and Hong Kong from 2004 to 2021 before and after the COVID-19 pandemic. The results show that the incidence of both diseases decreased significantly in 2020-2021 compared to the after-re-emergence stage in these two locations. Specifically, in 2020, scarlet fever decreased by 73.13% and pertussis by 76.63% in Mainland China, and 83.70% and 76.10%, respectively, in Hong Kong. In the absence of COVID-19, the predicted incidence of both diseases was much higher than the actual incidence in Mainland China and Hong Kong in 2020-2021. This study demonstrates that non-pharmaceutical measures implemented during the COVID-19 pandemic can partially reduce scarlet fever and pertussis re-emergence in Mainland China and Hong Kong.

Distribution of emm genotypes in group A streptococcus isolates of Korean children from 2012 to 2019

OBJECTIVES

Changes in the epidemiology of group A streptococcus (GAS) infection is related to emm genotype. We studied the distribution of emm genotypes and their antibiotic susceptibility among Korean children.

METHODS

Isolates from children with GAS infection between 2012 and 2019 were collected. emm typing and cluster analysis was performed according to the Centers for Disease Control emm cluster classification. Antimicrobial susceptibility was tested using the E-test and resistance genes were analyzed for macrolide resistant phenotypes.

RESULTS

Among 169 GAS isolates, 115 were from children with scarlet fever. Among invasive isolates, emm1 (6/22, 27.3%), emm12 (4/22, 18.2%), and emm4 (4/22, 18.2%) were most common. In scarlet fever, although emm4 (38/115, 33.0%) was the most prevalent throughout the study period, emm4 was replaced by emm3 (28/90, 31.1%) during an outbreak in 2017-2018. Among all isolates, only 2 (1.2%) exhibited erythromycin resistance and harbored both ermA and ermB genes.

CONCLUSIONS

In this analysis of GAS isolated from Korean children, emm1 was the most prevalent in invasive infection. In scarlet fever, emm4 was prevalent throughout the study period, with an increase in emm3 during 2017-2018. GAS isolates during 2012-2019 demonstrated low erythromycin resistance.

Prevalence and identification of antibiotic-resistant scarlet fever group A Streptococcus strains in some pediatric cases at Shenzhen, China

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to investigate the annual incidence, molecular epidemiological characteristics, and antimicrobial resistance of group A Streptococcus (GAS) clinical isolates from pediatric patients at Shenzhen Children's Hospital during 2016-2020.

METHODS

Clinical samples were collected from pediatric patients with a suspected diagnosis of GAS infections. We studied the annual incidence and characteristics of GAS infections using the GAS antigen detection method. Additionally, 250 GAS isolates were randomly selected for genotyping of the emm gene, and antimicrobial susceptibility assay was performed using the Kirby-Bauer paper dispersion strategy.

RESULTS

Among 43,593 collected samples, 9,313 were positive for the GAS antigen. The main emm type was emm12, followed by emm1, emm6, and emm 4, which were used for distinguishing 90% of the scarlet fever isolated strains. The percentage of emm1 increased from 36% in 2016 to 44% in 2019, whereas the percentage of emm12 decreased from 62% to 50%. Several unusual emm types isolated from scarlet fever patients showed an increase in proportions from 2016 to 2020. These GAS isolates were sensitive to penicillin, ceftriaxone, and vancomycin and were highly resistant to erythromycin and clindamycin.

CONCLUSION

There was a high incidence of GAS infections during 2016-2020 in Shenzhen, China. The GAS isolates had a high resistance rate to erythromycin and clindamycin; penicillin was the antibiotic of choice for GAS infections. The common emm types were emm12 and emm1. Future studies should investigate the clonal structure and superantigen profiles of the population of GAS isolates associated with scarlet fever.

A global snapshot on the prevalent macrolide-resistant emm types of Group A Streptococcus worldwide, their phenotypes and their resistance marker genotypes during the last two decades: A systematic review

Watchful epidemiological surveillance of macrolide-resistant Group A Streptococcus (MRGAS) clones is important owing to the evolutionary and epidemiological dynamic of GAS. Meanwhile, data on the global distribution of MRGAS emm types according to macrolide resistance phenotypes and genotypes are scant and need to be updated. For this, the present systematic review analyses a global set of extensively characterized MRGAS isolates from patients of diverse ages and clinical presentations over approximately two decades (2000 to 2020) and recaps the peculiar epidemiological features of the dominant MRGAS clones. Based on the inclusion and exclusion criteria, 53 articles (3593 macrolide-resistant and 15,951 susceptible isolates) distributed over 23 countries were dissected with a predominance of high-income countries over low-income ones. Although macrolide resistance in GAS is highly variable in different countries, its within-GAS distribution seems not to be random. emm pattern E, 13 major emm types (emm12, 4, 28, 77, 75, 11, 22, 92, 58, 60, 94, 63, 114) and 4 emm clusters (A-C4, E1, E6, and E2) were significantly associated with macrolide resistance. emm patterns A-C and D, 14 major emm types (emm89, 3, 6, 2, 44, 82, 87, 118, 5, 49, 81, 59, 227, 78) and 3 well-defined emm clusters (A-C5, E3, and D4) were significantly associated with macrolide susceptibility. Scrutinizing the tendency of each MRGAS emm type to be significantly associated with specific macrolide resistance phenotype or genotype, interesting vignettes are also unveiled. The 30-valent vaccine covers ~95% of MRGAS isolates. The presented data urge the importance of comprehensive nationwide sustained surveillance of MRGAS circulating clones particularly in Low and Middle income countries where sampling bias is high and GAS epidemiology is obfuscated and needs to be demystified.

Antibiotic Treatment, Mechanisms for Failure, and Adjunctive Therapies for Infections by Group A Streptococcus

Group A Streptococcus (GAS; Streptococcus pyogenes) is a nearly ubiquitous human pathogen responsible for a significant global disease burden. No vaccine exists, so antibiotics are essential for effective treatment. Despite a lower incidence of antimicrobial resistance than many pathogens, GAS is still a top 10 cause of death due to infections worldwide. The morbidity and mortality are primarily a consequence of the immune sequelae and invasive infections that are difficult to treat with antibiotics. GAS has remained susceptible to penicillin and other β-lactams, despite their widespread use for 80 years. However, the failure of treatment for invasive infections with penicillin has been consistently reported since the introduction of antibiotics, and strains with reduced susceptibility to β-lactams have emerged. Furthermore, isolates responsible for outbreaks of severe infections are increasingly resistant to other antibiotics of choice, such as clindamycin and macrolides. This review focuses on the challenges in the treatment of GAS infection, the mechanisms that contribute to antibiotic failure, and adjunctive therapeutics. Further understanding of these processes will be necessary for improving the treatment of high-risk GAS infections and surveillance for non-susceptible or resistant isolates. These insights will also help guide treatments against other leading pathogens for which conventional antibiotic strategies are increasingly failing.

The association between ambient air pollution and scarlet fever in Qingdao, China, 2014-2018: a quantitative analysis

Background

We conducted a distributed lag non-linear time series analysis to quantify the association between air pollution and scarlet fever in Qingdao city during 2014–2018.

Methods

A distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) combined with a generalized additive mixed model (GAMM) was applied to quantify the distributed lag effects of air pollutions on scarlet fever, with daily incidence of scarlet fever as the dependent variable and air pollutions as the independent variable adjusted for potential confounders.

Results

A total of 6316 cases of scarlet fever were notified, and there were 376 days occurring air pollution during the study period. Scarlet fever was significantly associated with air pollutions at a lag of 7 days with different relative risk (RR) of air pollution degrees [1.172, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.038–1.323 in mild air pollution; 1.374, 95% CI 1.078–1.749 in moderate air pollution; 1.610, 95% CI 1.163–2.314 in severe air pollution; 1.887, 95% CI 1.163–3.061 in most severe air pollution].

Conclusions

Our findings show that air pollution is positively associated with scarlet fever in Qingdao, and the risk of scarlet fever could be increased along with the degrees of air pollution. It contributes to developing strategies to prevent and reduce health impact from scarlet fever and other non-vaccine-preventable respiratory infectious diseases in air polluted areas.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12879-021-06674-8.

Spatiotemporal clustering and meteorological factors affected scarlet fever incidence in mainland China from 2004 to 2017

OBJECTIVE

To analyze the spatiotemporal dynamic distribution and detect the related meteorological factors of scarlet fever from an ecological perspective, which could provide scientific information for effective prevention and control of this disease.

METHODS

The data on scarlet fever cases in mainland China were downloaded from the Data Center of the China Public Health Science, while monthly meteorological data were extracted from the official website of the National Bureau of Statistics. Global Moran's I, local Getis-Ord G_i^⁎ hotspot statistics, and Kulldorff's retrospective space-time scan statistical analysis were used to detect the spatial and spatiotemporal clusters of scarlet fever across all settings. A spatial panel data model was conducted to estimate the impact of meteorological factors on scarlet fever incidence.

RESULTS

Scarlet fever in China had obvious spatial, temporal, and spatiotemporal clustering, high-incidence spatial clusters were located mainly in the north and northeast of China. Nine spatiotemporal clusters were identified. A spatial lag fixed effects panel data model was the best fit for regression analysis. After adjusting for spatial individual effects and spatial autocorrelation (ρ = 0.5623), scarlet fever incidence was positively associated with a one-month lag of average temperature, precipitation, and total sunshine hours (all P-values < 0.05). Each 10 °C, 2 cm, and 10 h increase in temperature, precipitation, and sunshine hours, respectively, was associated with a 6.41% increment and 1.04% and 1.41% decrement in scarlet fever incidence, respectively.

CONCLUSION

The incidence of scarlet fever in China showed an upward trend in recent years. It had obvious spatiotemporal clustering, with the high-risk areas mainly concentrated in the north and northeast of China. Areas with high temperature and with low precipitation and sunshine hours tended to have a higher scarlet fever incidence, and we should pay more attention to prevention and control in these places.

[Epidemiological characteristics of infectious diseases of group A, B and C among Chinese students' population]

OBJECTIVE

To analyze the secular trend, ranking change, age- and regional- characteristics of leading infectious diseases among Chinese students population aged 6 to 22 years from 2008 to 2017.

METHODS

Data were drawn from the national surveillance from 2008 to 2017, and the participants were students aged from 6 to 22 years who were diagnosed with notifiable infectious diseases. A total of 40 infectious diseases were classified into three groups based on national notifiable infectious diseases classification of A, B and C. The morbidity and mortality rates from infectious diseases were calculated using the numbers of students published by the ministry of education as the denominator. The age- and province-specific infectious diseases with the highest incidence were selected as the leading infectious diseases for analysis.

RESULTS

From 2008 to 2017, the incidence rate, the number of cases and the number of deaths of infectious diseases among the boys aged 6-22 years in China were higher than that of the girls, and the overall trend was downward during the study period. The incidence rates in the boys and girls decreased from 2008 to 2015 with decrease of 43.4% and 40.1%, respectively. However, by 2017, the increase rate rebounded with the increases of 47.1% and 53.8%. The rebound trend was mainly caused by the increase of group C of infectious diseases. During the past decade, the top leading three diseases of groups A and B of infectious diseases were viral hepatitis, tuberculosis and dysentery in 2018, respectively, which changed to tuberculosis, scarlet fever and viral hepatitis in 2017. The top leading three infectious diseases in terms of mortality were rabies, tuberculosis, and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)/acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) in 2008, which were transformed into HIV/AIDS, rabies, and tuberculosis in 2017. There was no significantly obvious change in the incidence and mortality order of group C of infectious diseases during the decade. In the analysis of age groups and regions, the leading infectious diseases in groups A and B transferred from viral hepatitis to scarlet fever and tuberculosis, while in group C, mumps and infectious diarrhoea almost always dominated the leading infectious diseases. But in recent years, influenza and hand-foot-and-mouth disease increased significantly in the eastern region.

CONCLUSION

During the past decade, China has got remarkable achievements in the prevention and control of children infectious disease. However, the change patterns and characteristics of notifiable infectious diseases among children and adolescents show the urgent need for prevention and control of respiratory tract infectious diseases, HIV/AIDS and other sexually transmitted diseases as well as new emerging infectious diseases in China in the future. This study provides important basis for policy making of Chinese national school-based infectious disease prevention and control mechanism.

[Epidemiological characteristics of infectious diseases of group A, B and C among Chinese students' population]

OBJECTIVE

To analyze the secular trend, ranking change, age- and regional- characteristics of leading infectious diseases among Chinese students population aged 6 to 22 years from 2008 to 2017.

METHODS

Data were drawn from the national surveillance from 2008 to 2017, and the participants were students aged from 6 to 22 years who were diagnosed with notifiable infectious diseases. A total of 40 infectious diseases were classified into three groups based on national notifiable infectious diseases classification of A, B and C. The morbidity and mortality rates from infectious diseases were calculated using the numbers of students published by the ministry of education as the denominator. The age- and province-specific infectious diseases with the highest incidence were selected as the leading infectious diseases for analysis.

RESULTS

From 2008 to 2017, the incidence rate, the number of cases and the number of deaths of infectious diseases among the boys aged 6-22 years in China were higher than that of the girls, and the overall trend was downward during the study period. The incidence rates in the boys and girls decreased from 2008 to 2015 with decrease of 43.4% and 40.1%, respectively. However, by 2017, the increase rate rebounded with the increases of 47.1% and 53.8%. The rebound trend was mainly caused by the increase of group C of infectious diseases. During the past decade, the top leading three diseases of groups A and B of infectious diseases were viral hepatitis, tuberculosis and dysentery in 2018, respectively, which changed to tuberculosis, scarlet fever and viral hepatitis in 2017. The top leading three infectious diseases in terms of mortality were rabies, tuberculosis, and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)/acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) in 2008, which were transformed into HIV/AIDS, rabies, and tuberculosis in 2017. There was no significantly obvious change in the incidence and mortality order of group C of infectious diseases during the decade. In the analysis of age groups and regions, the leading infectious diseases in groups A and B transferred from viral hepatitis to scarlet fever and tuberculosis, while in group C, mumps and infectious diarrhoea almost always dominated the leading infectious diseases. But in recent years, influenza and hand-foot-and-mouth disease increased significantly in the eastern region.

CONCLUSION

During the past decade, China has got remarkable achievements in the prevention and control of children infectious disease. However, the change patterns and characteristics of notifiable infectious diseases among children and adolescents show the urgent need for prevention and control of respiratory tract infectious diseases, HIV/AIDS and other sexually transmitted diseases as well as new emerging infectious diseases in China in the future. This study provides important basis for policy making of Chinese national school-based infectious disease prevention and control mechanism.

Incidence and Effects of Acquisition of the Phage-Encoded ssa Superantigen Gene in Invasive Group A Streptococcus

The acquisition of the phage-encoded superantigen ssa by scarlet fever-associated group A Streptococcus (Streptococcus pyogenes, GAS) is found in North Asia. Nonetheless, the impact of acquiring ssa by GAS in invasive infections is unclear. This study initially analyzed the prevalence of ssa+ GAS among isolates from sterile tissues and blood. Among 220 isolates in northern Taiwan, the prevalence of ssa+ isolates increased from 1.5% in 2008–2010 to 40% in 2017–2019. Spontaneous mutations in covR/covS, which result in the functional loss of capacity to phosphorylate CovR, are frequently recovered from GAS invasive infection cases. Consistent with this, Phostag western blot results indicated that among the invasive infection isolates studied, 10% of the ssa+ isolates lacked detectable phosphorylated CovR. Transcription of ssa is upregulated in the covS mutant. Furthermore, in emm1 and emm12 covS mutants, ssa deletion significantly reduced their capacity to grow in human whole blood. Finally, this study showed that the ssa gene could be transferred from emm12-type isolates to the emm1-type wild-type strain and covS mutants through phage infection and lysogenic conversion. As the prevalence of ssa+ isolates increased significantly, the role of streptococcal superantigen in GAS pathogenesis, particularly in invasive covR/covS mutants, should be further analyzed.

Infectious Respiratory Diseases Decreased during the COVID-19 Pandemic in South Korea

Infectious respiratory diseases are highly contagious and very common, and thus can be considered as one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality worldwide. We followed up the incidence rates (IRs) of eight infectious respiratory diseases, including chickenpox, measles, pertussis, mumps, invasive pneumococcal disease, scarlet fever, rubella, and meningococcal disease, after COVID-19 mitigation measures were implemented in South Korea, and then compared those with the IRs in the corresponding periods in the previous 3 years. Overall, the IRs of these diseases before and after age- or sex-standardization significantly decreased in the intervention period compared with the pre-intervention periods (p < 0.05 for all eight diseases). However, the difference in the IRs of all eight diseases between the IRs before and after age-standardization was significant (p < 0.05 for all periods), while it was not significant with regard to sex-standardization. The incidence rate ratios for eight diseases in the pre-intervention period compared with the intervention period ranged from 3.1 to 4.1. These results showed the positive effects of the mitigation measures on preventing the development of respiratory infectious diseases, regardless of age or sex, but we need to consider the age-structure of the population to calculate the effect size. In the future, some of these measures could be applied nationwide to prevent the occurrence or to reduce the transmission during outbreaks of these infections. This study provides evidence for strengthening the infectious disease management policies in South Korea.

Prophage exotoxins enhance colonization fitness in epidemic scarlet fever-causing Streptococcus pyogenes

The re-emergence of scarlet fever poses a new global public health threat. The capacity of North-East Asian serotype M12 (emm12) Streptococcus pyogenes (group A Streptococcus, GAS) to cause scarlet fever has been linked epidemiologically to the presence of novel prophages, including prophage ΦHKU.vir encoding the secreted superantigens SSA and SpeC and the DNase Spd1. Here, we report the molecular characterization of ΦHKU.vir-encoded exotoxins. We demonstrate that streptolysin O (SLO)-induced glutathione efflux from host cellular stores is a previously unappreciated GAS virulence mechanism that promotes SSA release and activity, representing the first description of a thiol-activated bacterial superantigen. Spd1 is required for resistance to neutrophil killing. Investigating single, double and triple isogenic knockout mutants of the ΦHKU.vir-encoded exotoxins, we find that SpeC and Spd1 act synergistically to facilitate nasopharyngeal colonization in a mouse model. These results offer insight into the pathogenesis of scarlet fever-causing GAS mediated by prophage ΦHKU.vir exotoxins.

The pathogenesis of Streptococcus pyogenes (GAS) causing scarlet fever has been associated with the presence of prophages, such as ΦHKU.vir, and their products. Here, the authors characterize the exotoxins SpeC and Spd1 of ΦHKU.vir and show these to act synergistically to facilitate nasopharyngeal colonization in mice.

Exposure to air pollution and scarlet fever resurgence in China: a six-year surveillance study

Scarlet fever has resurged in China starting in 2011, and the environment is one of the potential reasons. Nationwide data on 655,039 scarlet fever cases and six air pollutants were retrieved. Exposure risks were evaluated by multivariate distributed lag nonlinear models and a meta-regression model. We show that the average incidence in 2011-2018 was twice that in 2004-2010 [RR = 2.30 (4.40 vs. 1.91), 95% CI: 2.29-2.31; p < 0.001] and generally lower in the summer and winter holiday (p = 0.005). A low to moderate correlation was seen between scarlet fever and monthly NO₂ (r = 0.21) and O₃ (r = 0.11). A 10 μg/m³ increase of NO₂ and O₃ was significantly associated with scarlet fever, with a cumulative RR of 1.06 (95% CI: 1.02-1.10) and 1.04 (95% CI: 1.01-1.07), respectively, at a lag of 0 to 15 months. In conclusion, long-term exposure to ambient NO₂ and O₃ may be associated with an increased risk of scarlet fever incidence, but direct causality is not established.

Increase of emm1 isolates among group A Streptococcus strains causing scarlet fever in Shanghai, China

OBJECTIVE

Scarlet fever epidemics caused by group A Streptococcus (GAS) have been ongoing in China since 2011. However, limited data are available on the dynamic molecular characterizations of the epidemic strains.

METHOD

Epidemiological data of scarlet fever in Shanghai were obtained from the National Notifiable Infectious Disease Surveillance System. Throat swabs of patients with scarlet fever and asymptomatic school-age children were cultured. Illumina sequencing was performed on 39emm1 isolates.

RESULTS

The annual incidence of scarlet fever was 7.5-19.4/100,000 persons in Shanghai during 2011-2015, with an average GAS carriage rate being 7.6% in school-age children. The proportion ofemm1 GAS strains increased from 3.8% in 2011 to 48.6% in 2014; they harbored a superantigen profile similar to emm12 isolates, except for the speA gene. Two predominant clones, SH001-emm12, and SH002-emm1, circulated in 66.9% of scarlet fever cases and 44.8% of carriers. Genomic analysis showed emm1 isolates throughout China constituted distinct clades, enriched by the presence of mobile genetic elements carrying the multidrug-resistant determinants ermB and tetM and virulence genes speA, speC, and spd1.

CONCLUSION

A significant increase in the proportion ofemm1 strains occurred in the GAS population, causing scarlet fever in China. Ongoing surveillance is warranted to monitor the dynamic changes of GAS clones.

Infectious diseases in children and adolescents in China: analysis of national surveillance data from 2008 to 2017

OBJECTIVES

To outline which infectious diseases in the pre-covid-19 era persist in children and adolescents in China and to describe recent trends and variations by age, sex, season, and province.

DESIGN

National surveillance studies, 2008-17.

SETTING

31 provinces in mainland China.

PARTICIPANTS

4 959 790 Chinese students aged 6 to 22 years with a diagnosis of any of 44 notifiable infectious diseases. The diseases were categorised into seven groups: quarantinable; vaccine preventable; gastrointestinal and enteroviral; vectorborne; zoonotic; bacterial; and sexually transmitted and bloodborne.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Diagnosis of, and deaths from, 44 notifiable infectious diseases.

RESULTS

From 2008 to 2017, 44 notifiable infectious diseases were diagnosed in 4 959 790 participants (3 045 905 males, 1 913 885 females) and there were 2532 deaths (1663 males, 869 females). The leading causes of death among infectious diseases shifted from rabies and tuberculosis to HIV/AIDS, particularly in males. Mortality from infectious diseases decreased steadily from 0.21 per 100 000 population in 2008 to 0.07 per 100 000 in 2017. Quarantinable conditions with high mortality have effectively disappeared. The incidence of notifiable infectious diseases in children and adolescents decreased from 280 per 100 000 in 2008 to 162 per 100 000 in 2015, but rose again to 242 per 100 000 in 2017, largely related to mumps and seasonal influenza. Excluding mumps and influenza, the incidence of vaccine preventable diseases fell from 96 per 100 000 in 2008 to 7 per 100 000 in 2017. The incidence of gastrointestinal and enterovirus diseases remained constant, but typhoid, paratyphoid, and dysentery continued to decline. Vectorborne diseases all declined, with a particularly noticeable reduction in malaria. Zoonotic infections remained at low incidence, but there were still unpredictable outbreaks, such as pandemic A/H1N1 2009 influenza. Tuberculosis remained the most common bacterial infection, although cases of scarlet fever doubled between 2008 and 2017. Sexually transmitted diseases and bloodborne infections increased significantly, particularly from 2011 to 2017, among which HIV/AIDS increased fivefold, particularly in males. Difference was noticeable between regions, with children and adolescents in western China continuing to carry a disproportionate burden from infectious diseases.

CONCLUSIONS

China's success in infectious disease control in the pre-covid-19 era was notable, with deaths due to infectious diseases in children and adolescents aged 6-22 years becoming rare. Many challenges remain around reducing regional inequalities, scaling-up of vaccination, prevention of further escalation of HIV/AIDS, renewed efforts for persisting diseases, and undertaking early and effective response to highly transmissible seasonal and unpredictable diseases such as that caused by the novel SARS-CoV-2 virus.

Emergence of dominant toxigenic M1T1 Streptococcus pyogenes clone during increased scarlet fever activity in England: a population-based molecular epidemiological study

BACKGROUND

Since 2014, England has seen increased scarlet fever activity unprecedented in modern times. In 2016, England's scarlet fever seasonal rise coincided with an unexpected elevation in invasive Streptococcus pyogenes infections. We describe the molecular epidemiological investigation of these events.

METHODS

We analysed changes in S pyogenes emm genotypes, and notifications of scarlet fever and invasive disease in 2014-16 using regional (northwest London) and national (England and Wales) data. Genomes of 135 non-invasive and 552 invasive emm1 isolates from 2009-16 were analysed and compared with 2800 global emm1 sequences. Transcript and protein expression of streptococcal pyrogenic exotoxin A (SpeA; also known as scarlet fever or erythrogenic toxin A) in sequenced, non-invasive emm1 isolates was quantified by real-time PCR and western blot analyses.

FINDINGS

Coincident with national increases in scarlet fever and invasive disease notifications, emm1 S pyogenes upper respiratory tract isolates increased significantly in northwest London in the March to May period, from five (5%) of 96 isolates in 2014, to 28 (19%) of 147 isolates in 2015 (p=0·0021 vs 2014 values), to 47 (33%) of 144 in 2016 (p=0·0080 vs 2015 values). Similarly, invasive emm1 isolates collected nationally in the same period increased from 183 (31%) of 587 in 2015 to 267 (42%) of 637 in 2016 (p<0·0001). Sequences of emm1 isolates from 2009-16 showed emergence of a new emm1 lineage (designated M1UK)-with overlap of pharyngitis, scarlet fever, and invasive M1UK strains-which could be genotypically distinguished from pandemic emm1 isolates (M1global) by 27 single-nucleotide polymorphisms. Median SpeA protein concentration in supernatant was nine-times higher among M1UK isolates (190·2 ng/mL [IQR 168·9-200·4]; n=10) than M1global isolates (20·9 ng/mL [0·0-27·3]; n=10; p<0·0001). M1UK expanded nationally to represent 252 (84%) of all 299 emm1 genomes in 2016. Phylogenetic analysis of published datasets identified single M1UK isolates in Denmark and the USA.

INTERPRETATION

A dominant new emm1 S pyogenes lineage characterised by increased SpeA production has emerged during increased S pyogenes activity in England. The expanded reservoir of M1UK and recognised invasive potential of emm1 S pyogenes provide plausible explanation for the increased incidence of invasive disease, and rationale for global surveillance.

FUNDING

UK Medical Research Council, UK National Institute for Health Research, Wellcome Trust, Rosetrees Trust, Stoneygate Trust.

Analysis of Epidemiological Characteristics of Scarlet Fever in Zhejiang Province, China, 2004-2018

Objective: The aim of this study was to analyze the trends and epidemiological characteristics of scarlet fever in Zhejiang Province in 2004–2018, intending to provide a basis for targeted prevention and control of this disease. Method: We collated the epidemiological data for cases of scarlet fever from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention (CISDCP) in Zhejiang province between 1 January 2004 and 31 December 2018. Descriptive statistical analysis was used to analyze epidemiological characteristics of scarlet fever, whereas the Getis-Ord Gi* statistic was used to determine the hotspot incidence of scarlet fever. Results: In 2004–2018, a total of 22,194 cases of scarlet fever were reported in Zhejiang Province, with no death reports. The annual average of scarlet fever incidence was 2.82/100,000 (range,1.12 to 6.34/100,000). The male incidence was higher than that among female (χ² = 999.834, p < 0.05), and a majority of the cases (86.42%) occurred in children aged 3–9 years. Each year, the incidence of scarlet fever in Zhejiang Province appeared two seasonal peaks: the first peak occurred from March to June (the constituent ratio was 49.06%), the second peak was lower than the first one during November and the following January (the constituent ratio was 28.67%). The two peaks were almost in accordance with the school spring semester and autumn–winter semester, respectively. The incidence in the northern regions of the province was generally higher than that in the southern regions. High-value clusters were detected in the central and northern regions, while low-value clusters occurred in the southern regions via the Getis-Ord Gi* statistical analysis. Conclusions: The prevalence of scarlet fever in Zhejiang Province showed a marked seasonality variation and mainly clustered in the central and northern regions in 2004–2018. Children under 15 years of age were most susceptible to scarlet fever. Kindergartens and primary schools should be the focus of prevention and control, and targeted strategies and measures should be taken to reduce the incidence.

Predominance of emm4 and antibiotic resistance of Streptococcus pyogenes in acute pharyngitis in a southern region of Korea

BACKGROUND

Streptococcus pyogenes is the most common cause of bacterial pharyngitis. Genotyping of emm is useful for molecular epidemiological survey of S. pyogenes. Antibiotic resistance data are needed for empirical treatments.

METHODS

In total, 358 children in Changwon, Korea who had pharyngitis symptoms were subjected to throat cultures to isolate S. pyogenes in 2017. emm genotyping was performed by direct sequencing. An antibiotic susceptibility test was performed using the disk diffusion method for erythromycin (ERY), clindamycin (CLI), tetracycline (TET) and ofloxacin (OFX). Screening for macrolide resistance phenotype and its determinants was performed for the ERY-resistant strains.

RESULTS

A total of 190 strains (53.1 %) of S. pyogenes were isolated from 358 children. The most frequent emm genotype was emm4 (53.2 %), followed by emm89 (12.6 %), emm28 (11.6 %) and emm1 (10 %). Antibiotic resistance rates to ERY, CLI, TET and OFX were 3.2 %, 2.6 %, 1.1 % and 2.6%, respectively. There were five isolates of the cMLSB phenotype having the ermB gene and one M phenotype harbouring the mefA gene.

CONCLUSIONS

The distribution of emm genotypes was quite different from those previously reported in Korea. emm4 accounted for more than 50  % of the genotypes. Macrolide resistance rates remained very low, but five of six ERY-resistant strains displayed the cMLSB phenotype.

Incidence of Scarlet Fever in Children in Jeju Province, Korea, 2002-2016: An Age-period-cohort Analysis

Objectives:

Outbreaks of scarlet fever in Mexico in 1999, Hong Kong and mainland China in 2011, and England in 2014-2016 have received global attention, and the number of notified cases in Korean children, including in Jeju Province, has also increased since 2010. To identify relevant hypotheses regarding this emerging outbreak, an age-period-cohort (APC) analysis of scarlet fever incidence was conducted among children in Jeju Province, Korea.

Methods:

This study analyzed data from the nationwide insurance claims database administered by the Korean National Health Insurance Service. The inclusion criteria were children aged ≤14 years residing in Jeju Province, Korea who received any form of healthcare for scarlet fever from 2002 to 2016. The age and year variables were categorized into 5 groups, respectively. After calculating the crude incidence rate (CIR) for age and calendar year groups, the intrinsic estimator (IE) method was applied to conduct the APC analysis.

Results:

In total, 2345 cases were identified from 2002 to 2016. Scarlet fever was most common in the 0-2 age group, and boys presented more cases than girls. Since the CIR decreased with age between 2002 and 2016, the age and period effect decreased in all observed years. The IE coefficients suggesting a cohort effect shifted from negative to positive in 2009.

Conclusions:

The results suggest that the recent outbreak of scarlet fever among children in Jeju Province might be explained through the cohort effect. As children born after 2009 showed a higher risk of scarlet fever, further descriptive epidemiological studies are needed.

Effect of meteorological factors on scarlet fever incidence in Guangzhou City, Southern China, 2006-2017

OBJECTIVE

To explore the relationship between meteorological factors and scarlet fever incidence from 2006 to 2017 in Guangzhou, the largest subtropical city of Southern China, and assist public health prevention and control measures.

METHODS

Data for weekly scarlet fever incidence and meteorological variables from 2006 to 2017 in Guangzhou were collected from the National Notifiable Disease Report System (NNDRS) and the Guangzhou Meteorological Bureau (GZMB). Distributed lag nonlinear models (DLNMs) were conducted to estimate the effect of meteorological factors on weekly scarlet fever incidence in Guangzhou.

RESULTS

We observed nonlinear effects of temperature, relative humidity, and wind velocity. The risk was the highest when the weekly mean temperature was 31 °C during lag week 14, yielding a relative risk (RR) of 1.48 (95% CI: 1.01-2.17). When relative humidity was 43.5% during lag week 0, the RR was 1.49 (95% CI: 1.04-2.12); the highest RR (1.55, 95% CI: 1.20-1.99) was reached when relative humidity was 93.5% during lag week 20. When wind velocity was 4.4 m/s during lag week 13, the RR was highest at 3.41 (95% CI: 1.57-7.44). Positive correlations were observed among weekly temperature ranges and atmospheric pressure with scarlet fever incidence, while a negative correlation was detected with aggregate rainfall. The cumulative extreme effect of meteorological variables on scarlet fever incidence was statistically significant, except for the high effect of wind velocity.

CONCLUSION

Weekly mean temperature, relative humidity, and wind velocity had double-trough effects on scarlet fever incidence; high weekly temperature range, high atmospheric pressure, and low aggregate rainfall were risk factors for scarlet fever morbidity. Our findings provided preliminary, but fundamental, information that may be useful for a better understanding of epidemic trends of scarlet fever and for developing an early warning system. Laboratory surveillance for scarlet fever should be strengthened in the future.

Detecting spatio-temporal hotspots of scarlet fever in Taiwan with spatio-temporal Gi* statistic

A resurgence of scarlet fever has caused many pediatric infections in East Asia and the United Kingdom. Although scarlet fever in Taiwan has not been a notifiable infectious disease since 2007, the comprehensive national health insurance data can still track its trend. Here, we used data from the open data portal of the Taiwan Centers for Disease Control. The scarlet fever trend was measured by outpatient and hospitalization rates from 2009 to 2017. In order to elucidate the spatio-temporal hotspots, we developed a new method named the spatio-temporal Gi* statistic, and applied Joinpoint regression to compute the annual percentage change (APC). The overall APCs in outpatient and hospitalization were 15.1% (95% CI: 10.3%-20.2%) and 7.7% (95%CI: 4.5% -10.9%). The major two infected groups were children aged 5-9 (outpatient: 0.138 scarlet fever diagnoses per 1,000 visits; inpatient: 2.579 per 1,000 visits) and aged 3-4 (outpatient: 0.084 per 1,000 visits; inpatient: 1.469 per 1,000 visits). We found the counties in eastern Taiwan and offshore counties had the most hotspots in the outpatient setting. In terms of hospitalization, the hotspots mostly occurred in offshore counties close to China. With the help of the spatio-temporal statistic, health workers can set up enhanced laboratory surveillance in those hotspots.

Toxins and Superantigens of Group A Streptococci

Streptococcus pyogenes (i.e., the group A Streptococcus ) is a human-restricted and versatile bacterial pathogen that produces an impressive arsenal of both surface-expressed and secreted virulence factors. Although surface-expressed virulence factors are clearly vital for colonization, establishing infection, and the development of disease, the secreted virulence factors are likely the major mediators of tissue damage and toxicity seen during active infection. The collective exotoxin arsenal of S. pyogenes is rivaled by few bacterial pathogens and includes extracellular enzymes, membrane active proteins, and a variety of toxins that specifically target both the innate and adaptive arms of the immune system, including the superantigens; however, despite their role in S. pyogenes disease, each of these virulence factors has likely evolved with humans in the context of asymptomatic colonization and transmission. In this article, we focus on the biology of the true secreted exotoxins of the group A Streptococcus , as well as their roles in the pathogenesis of human disease.

The fall and rise of Group A Streptococcus diseases

Streptococcus pyogenes (or Group A Streptococcus, GAS) is a Gram-positive human pathogen responsible for a diverse array of superficial, invasive and immune-related diseases. GAS infections have historically been diseases of poverty and overcrowding, and remain a significant problem in the developing world and in disadvantaged populations within developed countries. With improved living conditions and access to antibiotics, the rates of GAS diseases in developed societies have gradually declined during the 20th century. However, genetic changes in circulating GAS strains and/or changes in host susceptibility to infection can lead to dramatic increases in the rates of specific diseases. No situations exemplify this more than the global upsurge of invasive GAS disease that originated in the 1980s and the regional increases in scarlet fever in north-east Asia and the UK. In each case, increased disease rates have been associated with the emergence of new GAS strains with increased disease-causing capability. Global surveillance for new GAS strains with increased virulence is important and determining why certain populations suddenly become susceptible to circulating strains remains a research priority. Here, we overview the changing epidemiology of GAS infections and the genetic alterations that accompany the emergence of GAS strains with increased capacity to cause disease.

Increasing Number of Scarlet Fever Cases, South Korea, 2011-2016

The increasing number of reported scarlet fever cases during 2011‒2016 in the National Notifiable Infectious Disease database in South Korea occurred because of increased overall reporting and expanded reporting criteria rather than because of increasing scarlet fever incidence. Further increases are anticipated because of other expansions in reporting requirements.

Resurgence of scarlet fever in China: a 13-year population-based surveillance study

Background

A re-emergence of scarlet fever has been noted in Hong Kong, South Korea, and England, UK, since 2008. China also had a sudden increase in the incidence of the disease in 2011. In this study, we aimed to assess the epidemiological changes before and after the upsurge. We also aimed to explore the reasons for the upsurge in disease in 2011, the epidemiological factors that contributed to it, and assess how these could be managed to prevent future epidemics.

Methods

In this observational study, we extracted the epidemiological data for all cases of scarlet fever between 2004 and 2016 in China from the Chinese Public Health Science Data Center, the official website of National Health Commission of the People's Republic of China, and the National Notifiable Infectious Disease Surveillance System. These data had been collected from 31 provinces and regions in China and included geographical, seasonal, and patient demographic information. We used descriptive statistical methods and joinpoint regression to examine the spatiotemporal patterns and annual percentage change in incidence of the upsurge of disease across China.

Findings

Between Jan 1, 2004, and Dec 31, 2016, 502 723 cases of scarlet fever, with ten fatalities, were reported in China, resulting in an annualised average incidence of 2·8807 per 100 000 people. The annual average incidence increased from 1·457 per 100 000 people in 2004 to 4·7638 per 100 000 people in 2011 (incidence rate ratio [IRR] 3·27, 95% CI 3·22–3·32; p<0·0001), peaking in 2015 (5·0092 per 100 000 people). The annual incidence after the 2011 upsurge of scarlet fever, between 2011 and 2016, was twice the average annual incidence reported between 2004 and 2010 (4·0125 vs 1·9105 per 100 000 people; IRR 2·07, 95% CI 2·06–2·09; p<0·0001). Most cases were distributed in the north, northeast, and northwest of the country. Semi-annual patterns were observed in May–June and November–December. The median age at onset of disease was 6 years, with the annual highest incidence observed in children aged 6 years (49·4675 per 100 000 people). The incidence among boys and men was 1·54 greater than that among girls and women before the upsurge, and 1·51 times greater after the upsurge (p<0·0001 for both). The median time from disease onset to reporting of the disease was shorter after the upsurge in disease than before (3 days vs 4 days; p=0·001).

Interpretation

To our knowledge, this is the largest epidemiological study of scarlet fever worldwide. The patterns of infection across the country were similar before and after the 2011 upsurge, but the incidence of disease was substantially higher after 2011. Prevention and control strategies being implemented in response to this threat include improving disease surveillance and emergency response systems. In particular, the school absenteeism and symptom monitoring and early-warning system will contribute to the early diagnosis and report of the scarlet fever. This approach will help combat scarlet fever and other childhood infectious diseases in China.

Funding

National Key R&D Plan of China Science and key epidemiological disciplines of Zhejiang Provincial Health of China.

Complete Genome Sequence of a Streptococcus pyogenes Serotype M12 Scarlet Fever Outbreak Isolate from China, Compiled Using Oxford Nanopore and Illumina Sequencing

The incidence of scarlet fever cases remains high in China. Here, we report the complete genome sequence of a Streptococcus pyogenes isolate of serotype M12, which has been confirmed as the predominant serotype in recent outbreaks. Genome sequencing was achieved by a combination of Oxford Nanopore MinION and Illumina methodologies.

Scarlet Fever Epidemic in China Caused by Streptococcus pyogenes Serotype M12: Epidemiologic and Molecular Analysis

From 2011, Hong Kong and mainland China have witnessed a sharp increase in reported cases, with subsequent reports of epidemic scarlet fever in North Asia and the United Kingdom. Here we examine epidemiological data and investigate the genomic context of the predominantly serotype M12 Streptococcus pyogenes scarlet fever isolates from mainland China. Incident case data was obtained from the Chinese Nationwide Notifiable Infectious Diseases Reporting Information System. The relative risk of scarlet fever in recent outbreak years 2011–2016 was calculated using the median age-standardised incidence rate, compared to years 2003–2010 prior this outbreak. Whole genome sequencing was performed on 32 emm12 scarlet fever isolates and 13 emm12 non-scarlet fever isolates collected from different geographic regions of China, and compared with 203 published emm12 S. pyogenes genomes predominantly from scarlet fever outbreaks in Hong Kong (n = 134) and the United Kingdom (n = 63). We found during the outbreak period (2011–2016), the median age-standardised incidence in China was 4.14/100,000 (95% confidence interval (CI) 4.11-4.18), 2.62-fold higher (95% CI 2.57-2.66) than that of 1.58/100,000 (95% CI 1.56-1.61) during the baseline period prior to the outbreak (2003 − 2010). Highest incidence was reported for children 5 years of age (80.5/100,000). Streptococcal toxin encoding prophage φHKU.vir and φHKU.ssa in addition to the macrolide and tetracycline resistant ICE-emm12 and ICE-HKU397 elements were found amongst mainland China multi-clonal emm12 isolates suggesting a role in selection and expansion of scarlet fever lineages in China. Global dissemination of toxin encoded prophage has played a role in the expansion of scarlet fever emm12 clones. These findings emphasize the role of comprehensive surveillance approaches for monitoring of epidemic human disease.

•

The study used all epidemiological data from 1950 to 2016, and describe increased incidence levels for the current outbreak.

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Using global emm12 scarlet fever isolate genome sequences, the multiclonal nature of the outbreak was confirmed.

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Global surveillance of GAS toxin and drug resistance mobile genes in the scarlet fever outbreak is necessary.

Our study provides a detailed report of scarlet fever epidemiology and genomic analysis for mainland China since the 2011 outbreak began. We also provide a comprehensive comparison of the genomic relationship of scarlet fever outbreak emm12 isolates from China, Hong Kong and the United Kingdom, countries experiencing an unparalleled re-emergence of scarlet fever. Our observations implicate an important role for GAS toxin and drug resistance related mobile genes in the outbreak and reveal different evolutionary patterns, and identify common themes relating to the acquisition of toxin carrying prophage elements. This work emphasizes the importance of comprehensive nationwide surveillance to track scarlet fever, GAS emm types, exotoxin-encoding prophage and antibiotic resistance genes in a global context.

Investigation of Scarlet Fever Outbreak in a Kindergarten

Background

Scarlet fever is caused by a group A streptococcal (GAS) infection. On April 3, 2017, an outbreak among children in a kindergarten was reported to the local health department. An epidemiologic investigation was conducted to identify the possible transmission route of this outbreak and to recommend appropriate control measures.

Materials and Methods

A retrospective cohort study was conducted using questionnaires including age, sex, the classroom attended at a kindergarten, and date and type of symptoms developed. A case-patient is defined as a child having sore throat, fever, skin rash, or strawberry tongue with or without laboratory confirmation of GAS infection between March 28 and April 28, 2017.

Results

The index case-patients developed symptoms on March 28, 2017, and this outbreak persisted over a period of 16 days. The outbreak affected 21 out of 158 children (13.3%) in the kindergarten, with the mean age of 4.2 (range 3–5) years; 12 (57.1%) of them were boys. The common symptoms reported were fever (71.4%), sore throat (71.4%), reddened tonsil (57.1%), and skin rash (52.4%). The epidemiologic analysis showed that children attending one of the classrooms in the kindergarten were 14.12 times affected than the other classrooms (relative risk, 14.12; 95% confidence interval, 4.99–33.93; P <0.01). All case-patients were recommended to stay away from the kindergarten and its social activities for >24 hours after starting appropriate antibiotic treatment, and all the children in the kindergarten were instructed to keep strict personal hygiene practices.

Conclusion

Our results suggest that the outbreak likely affected from the index case-patients who attended to one of the classrooms in the kindergarten. This highlights the importance of immediate notification of outbreak to prevent large number of patients.

Resurgence of scarlet fever in England, 2014-16: a population-based surveillance study

BACKGROUND

After decades of decreasing scarlet fever incidence, a dramatic increase was seen in England beginning in 2014. Investigations were launched to assess clinical and epidemiological patterns and identify potential causes.

METHODS

In this population-based surveillance study, we analysed statutory scarlet fever notifications held by Public Health England from 1911 to 2016 in England and Wales to identify periods of sudden escalation of scarlet fever. Characteristics of cases and outbreaks in England including frequency of complications and hospital admissions were assessed and compared with the pre-upsurge period. Isolates from throat swabs were obtained and were emm typed.

FINDINGS

Data were retrieved for our analysis between Jan 1, 1911, and Dec 31, 2016. Population rates of scarlet fever increased by a factor of three between 2013 and 2014 from 8·2 to 27·2 per 100 000 (rate ratio [RR] 3·34, 95% CI 3·23-3·45; p<0·0001); further increases were observed in 2015 (30·6 per 100 000) and in 2016 (33·2 per 100 000), which reached the highest number of cases (19 206) and rate of scarlet fever notifcation since 1967. The median age of cases in 2014 was 4 years (IQR 3-7) with an incidence of 186 per 100 000 children under age 10 years. All parts of England saw an increase in incidence, with 620 outbreaks reported in 2016. Hospital admissions for scarlet fever increased by 97% between 2013 and 2016; one in 40 cases were admitted for management of the condition or potential complications. Analysis of strains (n=303) identified a diversity of emm types with emm3 (43%), emm12 (15%), emm1 (11%), and emm4 (9%) being the most common. Longitudinal analysis identified 4-yearly periodicity in population incidence of scarlet fever but of consistently lower magnitude than the current escalation.

INTERPRETATION

England is experiencing an unprecedented rise in scarlet fever with the highest incidence for nearly 50 years. Reasons for this escalation are unclear and identifying these remains a public health priority.

FUNDING

None.