Spatial Patterns of Longitudinal Gray Matter Change as Predictors of Concurrent Cognitive Decline in Amyloid Positive Healthy Subjects

Toward a statistical validation of brain signatures as robust measures of behavioral substrates

The "brain signature of cognition" concept has garnered interest as a data-driven, exploratory approach to better understand key brain regions involved in specific cognitive functions, with the potential to maximally characterize brain substrates of behavioral outcomes. Previously we presented a method for computing signatures of episodic memory. However, to be a robust brain measure, the signature approach requires a rigorous validation of model performance across a variety of cohorts. Here we report validation results and provide an example of extending it to a second behavioral domain. In each of two discovery data cohorts, we derived regional brain gray matter thickness associations for two domains: neuropsychological and everyday cognition memory. We computed regional association to outcome in 40 randomly selected discovery subsets of size 400 in each cohort. We generated spatial overlap frequency maps and defined high-frequency regions as "consensus" signature masks. Using separate validation datasets, we evaluated replicability of cohort-based consensus model fits and explanatory power by comparing signature model fits with each other and with competing theory-based models. Spatial replications produced convergent consensus signature regions. Consensus signature model fits were highly correlated in 50 random subsets of each validation cohort, indicating high replicability. In comparisons over each full cohort, signature models outperformed other models. In this validation study, we produced signature models that replicated model fits to outcome and outperformed other commonly used measures. Signatures in two memory domains suggested strongly shared brain substrates. Robust brain signatures may therefore be achievable, yielding reliable and useful measures for modeling substrates of behavioral domains.

A robust brain signature region approach for episodic memory performance in older adults

The brain signature concept aims to characterize brain regions most strongly associated with an outcome of interest. Brain signatures derive their power from data-driven searches that select features based solely on performance metrics of prediction or classification. This approach has important potential to delineate biologically relevant brain substrates for prediction or classification of future trajectories. Recent work has used exploratory voxel-wise or atlas-based searches, with some using machine learning techniques to define salient features. These have shown undoubted usefulness, but two issues remain. The preponderance of recent work has been aimed at categorical rather than continuous outcomes, and it is rare for non-atlas reliant voxel-based signatures to be reported that would be useful for modelling and hypothesis testing. We describe a cross-validated signature region model for structural brain components associated with baseline and longitudinal episodic memory across cognitively heterogeneous populations including normal, mild impairment and dementia. We used three non-overlapping cohorts of older participants: from the UC Davis Aging and Diversity cohort (n = 255; mean age 75.3 ± 7.1 years; 128 cognitively normal, 97 mild cognitive impairment, 30 demented and seven unclassified); from Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) 1 (n = 379; mean age 75.1 ± 7.2; 82 cognitively normal, 176 mild cognitive impairment, 121 Alzheimer's dementia); and from ADNI2/GO (n = 680; mean age 72.5 ± 7.1; 220 cognitively normal, 381 mild cognitive impairment and 79 Alzheimer's dementia). We used voxel-wise regression analysis, correcting for multiple comparisons, to generate an array of regional masks corresponding to different association strength levels of cortical grey matter with baseline memory and brain atrophy with memory change. Cognitive measures were episodic memory using Spanish and English Neuropsychological Assessment Scales instruments for UC Davis and ADNI-Mem for ADNI 1 and ADNI2/GO. Performance metric was the adjusted R2 coefficient of determination of each model explaining outcomes in two cohorts other than where it was computed. We compared within-cohort performances of signature models against each other and against other recent signature models of episodic memory. Findings were: (i) two independently generated signature region of interest models performed similarly in a third separate cohort; (ii) a signature region of interest generated in one imaging cohort replicated its performance level when explaining cognitive outcomes in each of other, separate cohorts; and (iii) this approach better explained baseline and longitudinal memory than other recent theory-driven and data-driven models. This suggests our approach can generate signatures that may be easily and robustly applied for modelling and hypothesis testing in mixed cognition cohorts.

Gray matter volume and estimated brain age gap are not linked with sleep-disordered breathing

Alzheimer's disease (AD) and sleep-disordered breathing (SDB) are prevalent conditions with a rising burden. It is suggested that SDB may contribute to cognitive decline and advanced aging. Here, we assessed the link between self-reported SDB and gray matter volume in patients with AD, mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and healthy controls (HCs). We further investigated whether SDB was associated with advanced brain aging. We included a total of 330 participants, divided based on self-reported history of SDB, and matched across diagnoses for age, sex and presence of the Apolipoprotein E4 allele, from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI). Gray-matter volume was measured using voxel-wise morphometry and group differences in terms of SDB, cognitive status, and their interaction were assessed. Further, using an age-prediction model fitted on gray-matter data of external datasets, we predicted study participants' age from their structural images. Cognitive decline and advanced age were associated with lower gray matter volume in various regions, particularly in the bilateral temporal lobes. Brains age was well predicted from the morphological data in HCs and, as expected, elevated in MCI and particularly in AD subjects. However, there was neither a significant difference between regional gray matter volume in any diagnostic group related to the SDB status, nor in SDB-by-cognitive status interaction. Moreover, we found no difference in estimated chronological age gap related to SDB, or by-cognitive status interaction. Contrary to our hypothesis, we were not able to find a general or a diagnostic-dependent association of SDB with either gray-matter volumetric or brain aging.

A survey on machine and statistical learning for longitudinal analysis of neuroimaging data in Alzheimer's disease

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Recently, longitudinal studies of Alzheimer's disease have gathered a substantial amount of neuroimaging data. New methods are needed to successfully leverage and distill meaningful information on the progression of the disease from the deluge of available data. Machine learning has been used successfully for many different tasks, including neuroimaging related problems. In this paper, we review recent statistical and machine learning applications in Alzheimer's disease using longitudinal neuroimaging.

METHODS

We search for papers using longitudinal imaging data, focused on Alzheimer's Disease and published between 2007 and 2019 on four different search engines.

RESULTS

After the search, we obtain 104 relevant papers. We analyze their approach to typical challenges in longitudinal data analysis, such as missing data and variability in the number and extent of acquisitions.

CONCLUSIONS

Reviewed works show that machine learning methods using longitudinal data have potential for disease progression modelling and computer-aided diagnosis. We compare results and models, and propose future research directions in the field.

Prediction of Cognitive Decline in Temporal Lobe Epilepsy and Mild Cognitive Impairment by EEG, MRI, and Neuropsychology

Cognitive decline is a severe concern of patients with mild cognitive impairment. Also, in patients with temporal lobe epilepsy, memory problems are a frequently encountered problem with potential progression. On the background of a unifying hypothesis for cognitive decline, we merged knowledge from dementia and epilepsy research in order to identify biomarkers with a high predictive value for cognitive decline across and beyond these groups that can be fed into intelligent systems. We prospectively assessed patients with temporal lobe epilepsy (N = 9), mild cognitive impairment (N = 19), and subjective cognitive complaints (N = 4) and healthy controls (N = 18). All had structural cerebral MRI, EEG at rest and during declarative verbal memory performance, and a neuropsychological assessment which was repeated after 18 months. Cognitive decline was defined as significant change on neuropsychological subscales. We extracted volumetric and shape features from MRI and brain network measures from EEG and fed these features alongside a baseline testing in neuropsychology into a machine learning framework with feature subset selection and 5-fold cross validation. Out of 50 patients, 27 had a decline over time in executive functions, 23 in visual-verbal memory, 23 in divided attention, and 7 patients had an increase in depression scores. The best sensitivity/specificity for decline was 72%/82% for executive functions based on a feature combination from MRI volumetry and EEG partial coherence during recall of memories; 95%/74% for visual-verbal memory by combination of MRI-wavelet features and neuropsychology; 84%/76% for divided attention by combination of MRI-wavelet features and neuropsychology; and 81%/90% for increase of depression by combination of EEG partial directed coherence factor at rest and neuropsychology. Combining information from EEG, MRI, and neuropsychology in order to predict neuropsychological changes in a heterogeneous population could create a more general model of cognitive performance decline.

β-amyloid pathology and hippocampal atrophy are independently associated with memory function in cognitively healthy elderly

The independent effects of different brain pathologies on age-dependent cognitive decline are unclear. We examined this in 300 cognitively unimpaired elderly individuals from the BioFINDER study. Using cognition as outcome we studied the effects of cerebrospinal fluid biomarkers for amyloid-β (Aβ42/40), neuroinflammation (YKL-40), and neurodegeneration and tau pathology (T-tau and P-tau) as well as MRI measures of white-matter lesions, hippocampal volume (HV), and regional cortical thickness. We found that Aβ positivity and HV were independently associated with memory. Results differed depending on age, with memory being associated with HV (but not Aβ) in older participants (73.3–88.4 years), and with Aβ (but not HV) in relatively younger participants (65.2–73.2 years). This indicates that Aβ and atrophy are independent contributors to memory variability in cognitively healthy elderly and that Aβ mainly affects memory in younger elderly individuals. With advancing age, the effect of brain atrophy overshadows the effect of Aβ on memory function.

Secondary prevention of Alzheimer's dementia: neuroimaging contributions

BACKGROUND

In Alzheimer's disease (AD), pathological changes may arise up to 20 years before the onset of dementia. This pre-dementia window provides a unique opportunity for secondary prevention. However, exposing non-demented subjects to putative therapies requires reliable biomarkers for subject selection, stratification, and monitoring of treatment. Neuroimaging allows the detection of early pathological changes, and longitudinal imaging can assess the effect of interventions on markers of molecular pathology and rates of neurodegeneration. This is of particular importance in pre-dementia AD trials, where clinical outcomes have a limited ability to detect treatment effects within the typical time frame of a clinical trial. We review available evidence for the use of neuroimaging in clinical trials in pre-dementia AD. We appraise currently available imaging markers for subject selection, stratification, outcome measures, and safety in the context of such populations.

MAIN BODY

Amyloid positron emission tomography (PET) is a validated in-vivo marker of fibrillar amyloid plaques. It is appropriate for inclusion in trials targeting the amyloid pathway, as well as to monitor treatment target engagement. Amyloid PET, however, has limited ability to stage the disease and does not perform well as a prognostic marker within the time frame of a pre-dementia AD trial. Structural magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), providing markers of neurodegeneration, can improve the identification of subjects at risk of imminent decline and hence play a role in subject inclusion. Atrophy rates (either hippocampal or whole brain), which can be reliably derived from structural MRI, are useful in tracking disease progression and have the potential to serve as outcome measures. MRI can also be used to assess comorbid vascular pathology and define homogeneous groups for inclusion or for subject stratification. Finally, MRI also plays an important role in trial safety monitoring, particularly the identification of amyloid-related imaging abnormalities (ARIA). Tau PET to measure neurofibrillary tangle burden is currently under development. Evidence to support the use of advanced MRI markers such as resting-state functional MRI, arterial spin labelling, and diffusion tensor imaging in pre-dementia AD is preliminary and requires further validation.

CONCLUSION

We propose a strategy for longitudinal imaging to track early signs of AD including quantitative amyloid PET and yearly multiparametric MRI.

Associations between polygenic risk scores for four psychiatric illnesses and brain structure using multivariate pattern recognition

Psychiatric illnesses are complex and polygenic. They are associated with widespread alterations in the brain, which are partly influenced by genetic factors. There have been some attempts to relate polygenic risk scores (PRS) - a measure of the overall genetic risk an individual carries for a disorder - to brain structure using univariate methods. However, PRS are likely associated with distributed and covarying effects across the brain. We therefore used multivariate machine learning in this proof-of-principle study to investigate associations between brain structure and PRS for four psychiatric disorders; attention deficit-hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), autism, bipolar disorder and schizophrenia. The sample included 213 individuals comprising patients with depression (69), bipolar disorder (33), and healthy controls (111). The five psychiatric PRSs were calculated based on summary data from the Psychiatric Genomics Consortium. T1-weighted magnetic resonance images were obtained and voxel-based morphometry was implemented in SPM12. Multivariate relevance vector regression was implemented in the Pattern Recognition for Neuroimaging Toolbox (PRoNTo). Across the whole sample, a multivariate pattern of grey matter significantly predicted the PRS for autism (r = 0.20, pFDR = 0.03; MSE = 4.20 × 10-5, pFDR = 0.02). For the schizophrenia PRS, the MSE was significant (MSE = 1.30 × 10-5, pFDR = 0.02) although the correlation was not (r = 0.15, pFDR = 0.06). These results lend support to the hypothesis that polygenic liability for autism and schizophrenia is associated with widespread changes in grey matter concentrations. These associations were seen in individuals not affected by these disorders, indicating that this is not driven by the expression of the disease, but by the genetic risk captured by the PRSs.

Treatment with a GLP-1R agonist over four weeks promotes weight loss-moderated changes in frontal-striatal brain structures in individuals with mood disorders

Cognitive deficits are a core feature across psychiatric disorders. Emerging evidence indicates that metabolic pathways are highly relevant for the substrates and phenomenology of the cognitive domain. Herein, we aimed to determine the effects of liraglutide, a GLP-1R agonist, on brain structural/volumetric parameters in adults with a mood disorder. This is the secondary analysis of a 4-week, pilot, proof-of-concept, open-label study. Participants (N=19) exhibiting impairments in executive function with either major depressive disorder (MDD) or bipolar disorder (BD) were recruited. Liraglutide 1.8mg/day was added as an adjunct to existing pharmacotherapy. Structural magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scanning was obtained at baseline and endpoint. Results showed that at endpoint there was significant weight loss (mean: 3.15%; p<0.001). Changes in frontal and striatal volumes were significantly correlated with changes in body mass index (BMI), indicating the weight loss was associated with volume increase in most regions (e.g. r=-0.561, p=0.042 in the left superior frontal area). After adjusting for intracranial volume, age, gender, and BMI, we observed significant changes from baseline to endpoint in multiple regions (e.g. RR: 1.011, p=0.049 in the left rostral middle frontal area). Changes in regional volumes were associated with improvement in executive function (e.g. r=0.698, p=0.003 for the right superior frontal area). Adjunctive liraglutide results in clinically significant weight loss, with corresponding improvement in cognitive function; changes in cognitive function were partially moderated by changes in brain morphometry, underscoring the interrelationship between weight and brain structure/function.