Interferon alpha (pegylated and non-pegylated) and ribavirin for the treatment of mild chronic hepatitis C: a systematic review and economic evaluation

Is San Diego California on Track to Reach HCV Elimination? A Modeling Analysis of Combination Prevention Strategies

In 2020, the Eliminate Hepatitis C Initiative in the county of San Diego (COSD) was launched, a private-public joint endeavor between the COSD and the American Liver Foundation. We use epidemic modeling to assess whether the COSD is on track to reach its elimination targets (80% reduction in incidence, 65% reduction in hepatitis C virus (HCV)-related mortality by 2030 compared to 2015) and what intervention scale-up may be required. We adapted a previously developed dynamic, deterministic model of HCV transmission and disease progression among adults in the COSD, stratified by risk, age, gender, and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) status. The model is calibrated to detailed historical epidemiological data on HCV burden, treatment, and mortality in the COSD. We project HCV infections and mortality under status quo HCV treatment (65%/year among people coinfected with HCV and HIV, 0-5%/year among others) and determine what treatment scale-up among those without HIV is required to achieve HCV elimination, with or without concomitant reductions in injection transmission risk from 2024 onward. We project an increase in new HCV infections in the COSD to 2213 [95% C.I.: 1069-3763] in 2030, a mean 91% relative increase between 2015 and 2030. HCV-related deaths are expected to decrease to 246 [95% C.I.: 180-295] in 2030, a mean relative decrease of 14% compared to 2015. The incidence elimination target could be achieved through increasing HCV treatment among those without HIV to a mean of 60%/year, similar to the level achieved among people coinfected with HCV and HIV. Combination interventions reduce the treatment needed; if injecting risk is reduced by 25%, then treating 48%/year could achieve elimination. The COSD is likely not on track to reach the incidence or mortality targets, but achieving the incidence target is possible if treatment rates overall are scaled-up to rates that have been achieved among people coinfected with HCV and HIV. Elimination is achievable but requires committed funding and expansion of comprehensive testing, linkage, and treatment programs alongside harm reduction initiatives.

Cost-effectiveness of integrated treatment for hepatitis C virus (HCV) among people who inject drugs in Norway: An economic evaluation of the INTRO-HCV trial

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The INTRO-HCV randomized controlled trial conducted in Norway over 2017-2019 found that integrated treatment, compared with standard-of-care hospital treatment, for hepatitis C virus (HCV) with direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) improved treatment outcomes among people who inject drugs (PWID). We evaluated cost-effectiveness of the INTRO-HCV intervention.

DESIGN

A Markov health state transition model of HCV disease progression and treatment with cost-effectiveness analysis from the health-provider perspective. Primary cost, utility, and health outcome data were derived from the trial. Costs and health benefits (quality-adjusted life-years, QALYs) were tracked over 50 years. Probabilistic and univariate sensitivity analyses investigated DAA price reductions and variations in HCV treatment and disease care cost assumptions, using costs from different countries (Norway, United Kingdom, United States, France, Australia).

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

PWID attending community-based drug treatment centers for people with opioid dependence in Norway.

MEASUREMENTS

Incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) in terms of cost per QALY gained, compared against a conventional (€70 000/QALY) willingness-to-pay threshold for Norway and lower (€20 000/QALY) threshold common among high-income countries.

FINDINGS

Integrated treatment resulted in an ICER of €13 300/QALY gained, with 99% and 71% probability of being cost-effective against conventional and lower willingness-to-pay thresholds, respectively. A 30% lower DAA price reduced the ICER to €6 900/QALY gained, with 91% probability of being cost-effective at the lower willingness-to-pay threshold. A 60% and 90% lower DAA price had 36% and >99% probability of being cost-saving, respectively. Sensitivity analyses suggest integrated treatment was cost-effective at the lower willingness-to-pay threshold (>60% probability) across different assumptions on HCV treatment and disease care costs with 30% DAA price reduction, and became cost-saving with 60%-90% price reductions.

CONCLUSIONS

Integrated hepatitis C virus treatment for people who inject drugs in community settings is likely cost-effective compared with standard-of-care referral pathways in Norway and may be cost-saving in settings with particular characteristics.

Cost-effectiveness of Kidney Transplantation From Donors at Increased Risk of Blood-borne Virus Infection Transmission

BACKGROUND

Demand for donor kidneys outstrips supply. Using kidneys from selected donors with an increased risk of blood-borne virus (BBV) transmission (hepatitis B virus and hepatitis C virus [HCV], human immunodeficiency virus) may expand the donor pool, but cost-effectiveness of this strategy is uncertain.

METHODS

A Markov model was developed using real-world evidence to compare healthcare costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) of accepting kidneys from deceased donors with potential increased risk of BBV transmission, because of increased risk behaviors and/or history of HCV, versus declining these kidneys. Model simulations were run over a 20-y time horizon. Parameter uncertainty was assessed through deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses.

RESULTS

Accepting kidneys from donors at increased risk of BBVs (2% from donors with increased-risk behaviors and 5% from donors with active or past HCV infection) incurred total costs of 311 303 Australian dollars with a gain of 8.53 QALYs. Foregoing kidneys from these donors incurred total costs of $330 517 and a gain of 8.44 QALYs. A cost-saving of $19 214 and additional 0.09 QALYs (~33 d in full health) per person would be generated compared with declining these donors. Increasing the availability of kidneys with increased risk by 15% led to further cost-savings of $57 425 and additional 0.23 QALY gains (~84 d in full health). Probabilistic sensitivity analysis using 10 000 iterations showed accepting kidneys from donors at increased risk led to lower costs and higher QALY gains.

CONCLUSIONS

Shifting clinical practice to accept increased BBV risk donors would likely produce lower costs and higher QALYs for health systems.

Insights from a national survey in 2021 and from modelling on progress towards hepatitis C virus elimination in the country of Georgia since 2015

BackgroundBetween May 2015 and February 2022, 77,168 hepatitis C virus (HCV)-infected people in Georgia have been treated through an HCV elimination programme. To project the programme's long-term impacts, an HCV infection model was initially developed, based on data from surveys among people who inject drugs and a national serosurvey in 2015.AimAccounting for follow-up surveys in 2021, we validate and update projections of HCV infection prevalence and incidence.MethodWe assessed the initial model projections' accuracy for overall prevalence, by age, sex, and among people who ever injected drugs, compared with 2021 serosurvey data. We used 2021 results to weight model fits and to recalculate the national programme's impact leading up to March 2022 on HCV infection incidence rates. Cases and deaths averted were estimated. The impact of reduced treatment rates during the COVID-19 pandemic was assessed.ResultsThe original model overpredicted adult (≥ 18 years old) chronic HCV infection prevalence for 2021 (2.7%; 95% credible interval (CrI): 1.9-3.5%) compared with a 2021 serosurvey (1.8%; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.3-2.4%). Weighted model projections estimated a 60% decrease in HCV infection incidence by March 2022, with an absolute incidence of 66 (95% CrI: 34-131) per 100,000 person-years (overall population). Between May 2015 and March 2022, 9,186 (95% CrI: 5,396-16,720) infections and 842 (95% CrI: 489-1,324) deaths were averted. The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in 13,344 (95% CrI: 13,236-13,437) fewer treatments and 438 (95% CrI: 223-744) fewer averted infections by March 2022.ConclusionResults support the programme's high effectiveness. At current treatment rate (406/month), 90% reductions in prevalence and incidence in Georgia are achievable by 2030.

Hepatitis C Virus Micro-elimination Among People With HIV in San Diego: Are We on Track?

Background

Rising incidence of hepatitis C virus (HCV) among people with HIV (PWH) in San Diego County (SDC) was reported. In 2018, the University of California San Diego (UCSD) launched a micro-elimination initiative among PWH, and in 2020 SDC launched an initiative to reduce HCV incidence by 80% across 2015-2030. We model the impact of observed treatment scale-up on HCV micro-elimination among PWH in SDC.

Methods

A model of HCV transmission among people who inject drugs (PWID) and men who have sex with men (MSM) was calibrated to SDC. The model was additionally stratified by age, gender, and HIV status. The model was calibrated to HCV viremia prevalence among PWH in 2010, 2018, and 2021 (42.1%, 18.5%, and 8.5%, respectively), and HCV seroprevalence among PWID aged 18-39 years, MSM, and MSM with HIV in 2015. We simulate treatment among PWH, weighted by UCSD Owen Clinic (reaching 26% of HCV-infected PWH) and non-UCSD treatment, calibrated to achieve the observed HCV viremia prevalence. We simulated HCV incidence with observed and further treatment scale-up (+/- risk reductions) among PWH.

Results

Observed treatment scale-up from 2018 to 2021 will reduce HCV incidence among PWH in SDC from a mean of 429 infections/year in 2015 to 159 infections/year in 2030. County-wide scale-up to the maximum treatment rate achieved at UCSD Owen Clinic (in 2021) will reduce incidence by 69%, missing the 80% incidence reduction target by 2030 unless accompanied by behavioral risk reductions.

Conclusions

As SDC progresses toward HCV micro-elimination among PWH, a comprehensive treatment and risk reduction approach is necessary to reach 2030 targets.

Early cost-utility analysis of hepatitis C virus testing for emergency department attendees in France

Testing for hepatitis C virus (HCV) is currently targeted towards those at high-risk in France. While universal screening was recently rejected, a growing body of research from other high-income countries suggests that HCV testing in emergency departments (ED) can be effective and cost-effective. In the absence of any studies on the effectiveness of HCV testing in ED attendees in France, this study aimed to perform an early economic evaluation of ED-based HCV testing. A Markov model was developed to simulate HCV testing in the ED versus no ED testing. The model captured costs from a French health service perspective, presented in 2020 euros, and outcomes, presented as quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), over a lifetime horizon. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER) were calculated as costs per QALYs gained and compared to willingness-to-pay thresholds of €18,592 and €33,817 per QALY. Value of information analyses were also performed. ED testing for HCV was cost-effective at both thresholds when assuming ED prevalence of 1.1%, yielding an ICER of €3,800 per QALY. Testing remained cost-effective when the HCV prevalence amongst ED attendees remained higher than in the general population (0.3%). The maximum value of future research ranged from €10 to €79 million, depending on time horizons and willingness-to-pay thresholds. Our analysis suggests ED-based HCV testing may be cost-effective in France, although there is uncertainty due to the lack of empirical studies available. Further research is of high value, suggesting seroprevalence surveys and pilot studies in French ED settings are warranted.

Universal testing for hepatitis B and hepatitis C in the emergency department: a cost-effectiveness and budget impact analysis of two urban hospitals in the United Kingdom

Background

Numerous studies have shown the effectiveness of testing for hepatitis B (HBV) and hepatitis C (HCV) in emergency departments (ED), due to the elevated prevalence amongst attendees. The aim of this study was to conduct a cost-effectiveness analysis of universal opt-out HBV and HCV testing in EDs based on 2 long-term studies of the real-world effectiveness of testing in 2 large ED’s in the UK.

Methods

A Markov model was used to evaluate ED-based HBV and HCV testing versus no ED testing, in addition to current testing practice. The two EDs had a HBV HBsAg prevalence of 0.5–0.9% and an HCV RNA prevalence of 0.9–1.0%. The analysis was performed from a UK health service perspective, over a lifetime time horizon. Costs are reported in British pounds (GBP), and outcomes as quality adjusted life years (QALYs), with both discounted at 3.5% per year. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER) are calculated as costs per QALY gained. A willingness-to-pay threshold of £20,000/QALY was used. The cost-effectiveness was estimated for both infections, in both ED’s.

Results

HBV and HCV testing were highly cost-effective in both settings, with ICERs ranging from £7,177 to £12,387 per QALY gained. In probabilistic analyses, HBV testing was 89–94% likely to be cost-effective at the threshold, while HCV testing was 94–100% likely to be cost-effective, across both settings. In deterministic sensitivity analyses, testing remained cost-effective in both locations at ≥ 0.25% HBsAg prevalence, and ≥ 0.49% HCV RNA prevalence. This is much lower than the prevalence observed in the two EDs included in this study.

Conclusions

HBV and HCV testing in urban EDs is highly cost-effective in the UK, and can be cost-effective at relatively low prevalence. These results should be reflected in UK and European hepatitis testing guidelines.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12962-022-00388-7.

Cost effectiveness of simplified HCV screening-and-treatment interventions for people who inject drugs in Dar-es-Salaam, Tanzania

BACKGROUND

Compared to other countries in sub-Saharan Africa, Tanzania has a relatively progressive illicit drug harm reduction (HR) policy, through a predominantly opioid substitution therapy-based programme. However, access to hepatitis C virus (HCV) diagnosis and curative direct acting antiviral therapy remains elusive. We developed a cost-effectiveness model to evaluate a simplified HCV screening-and-treatment intervention amongst PWID in Dar-es-Salaam, Tanzania.

METHODS

A decision tree and Markov state transition model compared existing practice (no access to HCV viral confirmation and treatment) with the integration of point-of-care HCV screening and treatment within (1) existing HR services and (2) expansion to include PWID not currently engaged in HR. Outcome measures were screening, treatment, HR and disease-related costs per PWID, quality-adjusted life years (QALY) and disability adjusted life years (DALY). Cost-effectiveness was evaluated from a healthcare payer's perspective over a 30-year time horizon over a range of willingness-to-pay thresholds (USD$273 to USD$1,050). Both deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses have been conducted.

RESULTS

Assuming a chronic HCV prevalence of 18.8%, screening-and-treatment in existing HR settings resulted in an ICER per QALY-gained and DALY averted of USD$633 and USD$1,161, respectively. Expanding to include an outreach programme for unengaged PWID yielded an ICER per QALY-gained and DALY-averted of USD$4,091 and USD$10,288. Factors affecting the sensitivity of the ICER value included the cost of HR and the health utility of non-cirrhotic disease states.

CONCLUSION

Simplified HCV screening and treatment of PWID has the potential to be cost-effective in Dar-es-Salaam, Tanzania. In practice, synergism of human and financial resources with established health programmes may offer a pragmatic solution to minimise operational costs.

Integrating Hepatitis C Care for opioid substitution treatment patients attending general practice: Feasibility, Clinical and Cost Effectiveness (Preprint)

Background

Objective

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Utilization of Intravenous Ribavirin Among Reproductive Age Adults in 2010-2017: A Population-Based Study in the Yinzhou District, Ningbo City of China

Background: Intravenous (IV) ribavirin is not approved in US and European Union, but it is authorized in China. Significant teratogenic and embryocidal effects of ribavirin have been found in almost all animal studies, it is critical to investigate the prevalence and trends of the utilization of IV ribavirin among reproductive age population.

Objective: To evaluate the prevalence and trends of IV ribavirin use among reproductive-age population in 2010–2017.

Methods: The study design of our study is retrospective cross-sectional study based on healthcare database. We identified and extracted the data of residents aged 18–44 years by using Yinzhou healthcare information database at 21 January, 2018. A cohort of IV ribavirin users were identified through outpatient prescription records in 3 general hospitals and 24 community health centers from 2010 to 2017. We reported the number, proportion, and prevalence of the exposure to IV ribavirin stratified by sex, age, marital status, education level, occupation, hospital level, calendar year, diagnosis, and dosage. The overall trends of IV ribavirin use, and the trends in different levels of hospital and common diagnoses were further analyzed and described.

Result: During the study period, the prevalence of IV ribavirin use among reproductive-age adults was 6.02% (48,287/801,667). Relatively higher prevalence were found in adults aged 40–44 (8.04%, 95% CI: 7.90–8.17), unmarried patients (8.91%, 95% CI: 8.74–9.08), and who had more than 9 years of education (6.82%, 95% CI: 6.74–6.90). Compared to secondary and tertiary hospitals, IV ribavirin was more likely to be dispensed in primary hospitals (19.44%, 95% CI: 19.28–19.61). The most common diagnoses were acute upper respiratory infections (AURIs), accounting for 80% of the patients exposed to IV ribavirin. For patients with AURIs, the prevalence of IV ribavirin was nearly 30%. Overall, the prevalence of IV ribavirin use decreased from 1.72% in 2010 to 0.24% in 2017.

Conclusion: We found IV ribavirin was mainly used for AURIs which suggested that a large amount of IV ribavirin use was probably inappropriate. The prevalence was decreasing by 87% over the past 8 years, and we encourage clinicians and pharmacists to continually avoid inappropriate use of IV ribavirin.

Cost-effectiveness of hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination strategies among people who inject drugs (PWID) in Tijuana, Mexico

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

In Latin America, Mexico was first to launch a hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination strategy, where people who inject drugs (PWID) are a main risk group for transmission. In Tijuana, HCV seroprevalence among PWID is > 90%, with minimal harm reduction (HR). We evaluated cost-effectiveness of strategies to achieve the incidence elimination target among PWID in Tijuana.

METHODS

Modeling study using a dynamic, cost-effectiveness model of HCV transmission and progression among active and former PWID in Tijuana, to assess the cost-effectiveness of incidence elimination strategies from a health-care provider perspective. The model incorporated PWID transitions between HR stages (no HR, only opioid agonist therapy, only high coverage needle-syringe programs, both). Four strategies that could achieve the incidence target (80% reduction by 2030) were compared with the status quo (no intervention). The strategies incorporated the number of direct-acting anti-viral (DAA) treatments required with: (1) no HR scale-up, (2) HR scale-up from 2019 to 20% coverage among PWID, (3) HR to 40% coverage and (4) HR to 50% coverage. Costs (2019 US$) and health outcomes [disability-adjusted life years (DALYs)] were discounted 3% per year. Mean incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER, $/DALY averted) were compared with one-time per capita gross domestic product (GDP) ($9698 in 2019) and purchasing power parity-adjusted per capita GDP ($4842-13 557) willingness-to-pay (WTP) thresholds.

RESULTS

DAAs alone were the least costly elimination strategy [$173 million, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 126-238 million], but accrued fewer health benefits compared with strategies with HR. DAAs + 50% HR coverage among PWID averted the most DALYs but cost $265 million, 95% CI = 210-335 million). The optimal strategy was DAAs + 50% HR (ICER $6743/DALY averted compared to DAAs only) under the one-time per-capita GDP WTP ($9698).

CONCLUSIONS

A combination of high-coverage harm reduction and hepatitis C virus treatment is the optimal cost-effective strategy to achieve the HCV incidence elimination goal in Mexico.

Cost-effectiveness of mass screening for Hepatitis C virus among all inmates in an Irish prison

BACKGROUND

In Irish prisons, there is a high proportion of people who inject drugs (PWID; 26%) and a high prevalence of HCV (16%), making prison a high priority setting for HCV testing and treatment. We evaluate the cost-effectiveness of a mass HCV screening intervention in Mountjoy Prison, Dublin, compared to the standard-of-care of intermittent screening on committal.

METHODS

Primary cost data was collected from the intervention using an overall provider perspective. Standard-of-care (SOC) costs were estimated through interview. All costs were inflated to 2020 Euros. An HCV transmission and disease progression model among incarcerated and community PWID and ex-injectors was calibrated to the Dublin HCV epidemic, allowing inclusion of population-level health benefits. The model used intervention data, suggesting 419 individuals were screened, 50 HCV infections diagnosed and 32 individuals initiated treatment, to project the resulting costs and health benefits (quality adjusted life years or QALYs) over 50 years with 5% discounting. The incremental cost effectiveness ratio (ICER), cost per QALY gained, was estimated for the screening intervention compared to the standard-of-care. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses (PSA) determined the probability that the intervention was cost-effective compared to a willingness-to-pay threshold of €30,000/QALY as used in Ireland. The ICER for 1- or 3-yearly mass screening in all Dublin prisons was also calculated.

RESULTS

The total direct costs of the intervention (not including treatment drug costs) was €82,392, with most costs being due to staff (43%) and overhead or management costs (38%). Despite having little epidemiological impact due to the small numbers treated, over 50 years the incremental cost of the intervention was €36,592 and 3.8 QALYs were gained, giving a mean ICER of €9,552/QALY. The majority (84%) of PSA runs were below the willingness-to-pay threshold. Yearly mass screening had an ICER of €2,729/QALY compared to SOC and gave a higher net monetary benefit (€7,393,382) than screening every 3 years (€6,252,816).

CONCLUSION

Prison mass screening could be a cost-effective initiative for increasing testing and treatment of HCV in Ireland.

The cost-effectiveness of case-finding strategies for achieving hepatitis C elimination among men who have sex with men in the UK

Modelling suggests hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination is possible among men who have sex with men (MSM), with key screening groups including HIV-diagnosed MSM and MSM using pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP). Mathematical modelling was used to determine the cost-effectiveness of HCV case-finding strategies among MSM from the provider perspective, and to determine which interventions could achieve a 90% reduction in HCV incidence over 2015-2030. At baseline, we assumed symptomatic screening in HIV-negative MSM (including PrEP users) and 12-monthly screening among HIV-diagnosed MSM. Improved case-finding strategies included screening alongside HIV testing in HIV-negative MSM not using PrEP (PrEP non-users); 12/6/3-monthly screening in PrEP users; and 6-monthly screening in HIV-diagnosed MSM, with the cost-effectiveness being compared incrementally. Costs (GBP) and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were assessed to estimate the mean incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) with a time horizon to 2050, compared to a willingness-to-pay threshold of £20,000/QALY. From the baseline, the most incrementally cost-effective strategy is to firstly undertake: (1) 12-monthly HCV screening of PrEP users (gaining 6715 QALYs with ICER £1760/QALY), followed by (2) HCV screening among PrEP non-users alongside HIV testing (gaining 7048 QALYs with ICER £4972/QALY). Compared to the baseline, this combined strategy would cost £46.9 (95%CrI £25.3-£66.9) million and achieve the HCV elimination target in 100% of model runs. Additional screening incurs ICERs >£20,000/QALY compared to this combined strategy. In conclusion, HCV elimination can be achieved cost-effectively among UK MSM. Policymakers should consider scaling-up HCV screening in HIV-negative MSM, especially PrEP users, for achieving this target.

Hepatitis C elimination in Myanmar: Modelling the impact, cost, cost-effectiveness and economic benefits

Background

Myanmar has set national hepatitis C (HCV) targets to achieve 50% of people diagnosed and 50% treated by 2030. The WHO has additional targets of reducing incidence by 80% and mortality by 65% by 2030. We aimed to estimate the impact, cost, cost-effectiveness and net economic benefit of achieving these targets.

Methods

Mathematical models of HCV transmission, disease progression and the care cascade were calibrated to 15 administrative regions of Myanmar. Cost data were collected from a community testing and treatment program in Yangon. Three scenarios were projected for 2020-2030: (1) baseline (current levels of testing/treatment); and testing/treatment scaled up sufficiently to reach (2) the national strategy targets; and (3) the WHO targets.

Findings

Without treatment scale-up, 333,000 new HCV infections and 97,000 HCV-related deaths were estimated to occur in Myanmar 2020-2030, with HCV costing a total $100 million in direct costs (testing, treatment, disease management) and $10.4 billion in lost productivity. In the model, treating 55,000 people each year was sufficient to reach the national strategy targets and prevented a cumulative 40,000 new infections (12%) and 25,000 HCV-related deaths (25%) 2020-2030. This was estimated to cost a total $189 million in direct costs ($243 per DALY averted compared to no treatment scale-up), but only $9.8 billion in lost productivity, making it cost-saving from a societal perspective by 2024 with an estimated net economic benefit of $553 million by 2030. Reaching the WHO targets required further treatment scale-up and additional direct costs but resulted in greater longer-term benefits.

Interpretation

Current levels of HCV testing and treatment in Myanmar are insufficient to reach the national strategy targets. Scaling up HCV testing and treatment in Myanmar to reach the national strategy targets is estimated to generate significant health and economic benefits.

Funding

Gilead Sciences.

Cost-effectiveness of screening and treatment using direct-acting antivirals for chronic Hepatitis C virus in a primary care setting in Karachi, Pakistan

Despite the availability of effective direct-acting antiviral (DAA) treatments for Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, many people remain undiagnosed and untreated. We assessed the cost-effectiveness of a Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) HCV screening and treatment programme within a primary health clinic in Karachi, Pakistan. A health state transition Markov model was developed to estimate the cost-effectiveness of the MSF programme. Programme cost and outcome data were analysed retrospectively. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was calculated in terms of incremental cost (2016 US$) per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted from the provider's perspective over a lifetime horizon. The robustness of the model was evaluated using deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses (PSA). The ICER for implementing testing and treatment compared to no programme was US$450/DALY averted, with 100% of PSA runs falling below the per capita Gross Domestic Product threshold for cost-effective interventions for Pakistan (US$1,422). The ICER increased to US$532/DALY averted assuming national HCV seroprevalence (5.5% versus 33% observed in the intervention). If the cost of liver disease care was included (adapted from resource use data from Cambodia which has similar GDP to Pakistan), the ICER dropped to US$148/DALY, while it became cost-saving if a recently negotiated reduced drug cost of $75/treatment course was assumed (versus $282 in base-case) in addition to cost of liver disease care. In conclusion, screening and DAA treatment for HCV infection are expected to be highly cost-effective in Pakistan, supporting the expansion of similar screening and treatment programmes across Pakistan.

Is hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination achievable among people who inject drugs in Tijuana, Mexico? A modeling analysis

BACKGROUND

In 2019, Mexico became the first Latin American country committed to hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination, but the amount of intervention scale-up required is unclear. In Tijuana, HCV among people who inject drugs (PWID) is high; yet there is minimal and intermittent harm reduction, and involuntary exposure to compulsory abstinence programs (CAP) occurs which is associated with increased HCV risk. We determined what combination intervention scale-up can achieve HCV elimination among current and former PWID in Tijuana.

METHODS

We constructed a dynamic, deterministic model of HCV transmission, disease progression, and harm reduction among current and former PWID parameterized to Tijuana (~10,000 current PWID, 90% HCV seropositive, minimal opiate agonist therapy [OAT] or high coverage needle/syringe programs [HCNSP]). We evaluated the number of direct-acting antiviral (DAA) treatments needed from 2019 to achieve elimination targets (80% incidence reduction, 65% mortality reduction by 2030) with: (a) DAAs alone, (b) DAAs plus scale-up of OAT+HCNSP (up to 50% coverage of OAT and HCNSP separately, producing 25% of PWID receiving both), (c) DAAs plus CAP scale-up to 50%. Scenarios examined the number of DAAs required if prioritized to current PWID or provided regardless of current injection status, and impact of harm reduction interruptions.

RESULTS

Modeling suggests among ~30,000 current and former PWID in Tijuana, 16,160 (95%CI: 12,770-21,610) have chronic HCV. DAA scale-up can achieve the incidence target, requiring 770 treatments/year (95%CI: 640-970) if prioritized to current PWID. 40% fewer DAAs are required with OAT+HCNSP scale-up to 50% among PWID, whereas more are required with involuntary CAP scale-up. Both targets can only be achieved through treating both current and former PWID (1,710 treatments/year), and impact is reduced with harm reduction interruptions.

CONCLUSIONS

Elimination targets are achievable in Tijuana through scale-up of harm reduction and DAA therapy, whereas involuntary CAP and harm reduction interruptions hamper elimination.

Cost-effectiveness of using hepatitis C viremic hearts for transplantation into HCV-negative recipients

Outcomes following hepatitis C virus (HCV)-viremic heart transplantation into HCV-negative recipients with HCV treatment are good. We assessed cost-effectiveness between cohorts of transplant recipients willing and unwilling to receive HCV-viremic hearts. Markov model simulated long-term outcomes among HCV-negative patients on the transplant waitlist. We compared costs (2018 USD) and health outcomes (quality-adjusted life-years, QALYs) between cohorts willing to accept any heart and those willing to accept only HCV-negative hearts. We assumed 4.9% HCV-viremic donor prevalence. Patients receiving HCV-viremic hearts were treated, assuming $39 600/treatment with 95% cure. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were compared to a $100 000/QALY gained willingness-to-pay threshold. Sensitivity analyses included stratification by blood type or region and potential negative consequences of receipt of HCV-viremic hearts. Compared to accepting only HCV-negative hearts, accepting any heart gained 0.14 life-years and 0.11 QALYs, while increasing costs by $9418/patient. Accepting any heart was cost effective (ICER $85 602/QALY gained). Results were robust to all transplant regions and blood types, except type AB. Accepting any heart remained cost effective provided posttransplant mortality and costs among those receiving HCV-viremic hearts were not >7% higher compared to HCV-negative hearts. Willingness to accept HCV-viremic hearts for transplantation into HCV-negative recipients is cost effective and improves clinical outcomes.

Systematic Review of Health State Utility Values Used in European Pharmacoeconomic Evaluations for Chronic Hepatitis C: Impact on Cost-Effectiveness Results

BACKGROUND

Health state utility values (HSUVs) identified from utility elicitation studies are widely used in pharmacoeconomic evaluations for chronic hepatitis C (CHC) and are particularly instrumental in health technology assessment (HTA) evaluations such as those from the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE).

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to identify HSUVs used in cost-utility analyses (CUAs) for CHC in Europe and to evaluate the impact of HSUV selection on cost-effectiveness results in terms of the incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained (ICER).

METHODS

A systematic search of pharmacoeconomic evaluations for CHC was updated in the MEDLINE and EMBASE databases for the periods 2012-2017 and 2017-2020. Data on health states, HSUVs, and utility elicitation studies were extracted. The difference in HSUVs of the same health state in different CUAs, and the difference between HSUVs of one health state and of the interlink health state in the same CUAs, were calculated. A quality assessment was performed to evaluate the selection of HSUVs in CUAs. Sets of HSUVs identified were used in a reconstructed CUA model to assess the impact on the ICER.

RESULTS

Twenty-six CUAs conducted in European countries and referring to 17 utility elicitation studies were included. The difference in HSUVs of the same health state in different CUAs ranged from 0.021 (liver transplant) to 0.468 (decompensated cirrhosis). The difference between HSUVs of one health state and of the interlink health state of the next disease severity level was calculated between the health states of F0-F1/mild and F2-F3/moderate (n = 11, 0.040-0.110), F2-F3/moderate and F4/compensated cirrhosis (n = 18, 0.027-0.130), compensated cirrhosis and decompensated cirrhosis (n = 22, 0.020-0.100), decompensated cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (n = 24, 0.000-0.200), hepatocellular carcinoma and liver transplant in the first year (n = 17, - 0.329 to 0.170) and liver transplant in the first and subsequent years (n = 17, - 0.340 to 0.000). The utility elicitation study selected by most CUAs (n = 11) was recommended as the source of HSUVs, at least for the CUAs conducted in the UK, based on the results of quality assessment. Seven sets of HSUVs were generated to fit the reconstructed model and changed the results of the incremental analysis from being cost effective to not being cost effective (ICER ranging from £2460 to £24,954 per QALY gained), and to being dominated in the UK setting.

CONCLUSIONS

The CUAs for CHC were found to apply to various HSUVs from different utility elicitation studies in the same health state. This variability in HSUVs has the potential to significantly affect ICER and ICER-based reimbursement decisions. A rigorous selection of HSUVs in CUAs to inform healthcare resource allocation is suggested for future studies of CUAs and for guideline development.

Cost-effectiveness of strategies to improve HCV screening, linkage-to-care and treatment in remand prison settings in England

BACKGROUND

A simplified cascade-of-care may improve screening and treatment uptake among incarcerated individuals. We assessed the cost-effectiveness of traditional and simplified screening and treatment in a London remand prison.

METHODS

Using empirical data from Her Majesty's Prison (HMP) Wormwood Scrubs, London, we designed a decision tree and Markov transition state model using national average data for HCV screening and treatment for the base-case scenario. This compared two alternative strategies; (a) general prison population screening and treatment and (b) prioritising screening and treatment among people who inject drugs (PWID) combined with general prison population screening and treatment. Strategies varied the rates of screening (47%-90%), linkage-to-care (60%-86%) and treatment (21%-85%). Cost, utility and disease transition rates were obtained from existing literature. Outcome measures were as follows: screening, treatment and disease-related costs per admitted individual, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were calculated for each intervention. All costs and utilities were discounted at a rate of 3.5% per annum. Both univariate and probabilistic sensitivity analyses have been conducted.

RESULTS

In our cohort of 5239 incarcerated individuals with an estimated chronic HCV prevalence of 2.6%, all strategy ICER values (£3565-10 300) fell below the national willingness to pay threshold (£30 000). Increased successful treatment (7%-54%) was observed by an optimising cascade-of-care. A robust sensitivity analysis identified treatment cost of, QALY for mild liver disease and probability of completing treatment as important factors that impact the ICER value.

CONCLUSION

In our remand setting, optimising adherence to the cascade-of-care is cost-effective. Where universal screening is not practical, a stratified approach focused on intensive screening and treatment of PWID also results in increased treatment uptake and is highly cost-effective.

Cost and cost-effectiveness of a simplified treatment model with direct-acting antivirals for chronic hepatitis C in Cambodia

BACKGROUND & AIMS

In 2016, Médecins Sans Frontières established the first general population Hepatitis C virus (HCV) screening and treatment site in Cambodia, offering free direct-acting antiviral (DAA) treatment. This study analysed the cost-effectiveness of this intervention.

METHODS

Costs, quality adjusted life years (QALYs) and cost-effectiveness of the intervention were projected with a Markov model over a lifetime horizon, discounted at 3%/year. Patient-level resource-use and outcome data, treatment costs, costs of HCV-related healthcare and EQ-5D-5L health states were collected from an observational cohort study evaluating the effectiveness of DAA treatment under full and simplified models of care compared to no treatment; other model parameters were derived from literature. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (cost/QALY gained) were compared to an opportunity cost-based willingness-to-pay threshold for Cambodia ($248/QALY).

RESULTS

The total cost of testing and treatment per patient for the full model of care was $925(IQR $668-1631), reducing to $376(IQR $344-422) for the simplified model of care. EQ-5D-5L values varied by fibrosis stage: decompensated cirrhosis had the lowest value, values increased during and following treatment. The simplified model of care was cost saving compared to no treatment, while the full model of care, although cost-effective compared to no treatment ($187/QALY), cost an additional $14 485/QALY compared to the simplified model, above the willingness-to-pay threshold for Cambodia. This result is robust to variation in parameters.

CONCLUSIONS

The simplified model of care was cost saving compared to no treatment, emphasizing the importance of simplifying pathways of care for improving access to HCV treatment in low-resource settings.

The Cost-Effectiveness of Hepatitis C Virus Screening Strategies among Recently Arrived Migrants in the Netherlands

Objective: We aimed to assess the cost-effectiveness of hepatitis C virus (HCV) screening strategies among recently arrived migrants in the Netherlands. Methods: A Markov model was used to estimate the health effects and costs of HCV screening from the healthcare perspective. A cohort of 50,000 recently arrived migrants was used. In this cohort, three HCV screening strategies were evaluated: (i) no screening, (ii) screening of migrants from HCV-endemic countries and (iii) screening of all migrants. Results: Strategy (ii) screening of migrants from HCV-endemic countries compared to strategy (i) no screening, yielded an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of €971 per quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained. Strategy (iii) screening of all migrants compared with strategy (ii) screening of migrants from HCV-endemic countries yielded an ICER of €1005 per QALY gained. The budget impact of strategy (ii) screening of migrants from HCV-endemic countries and strategy (iii) screening of all migrants was €13,752,039 and €20,786,683, respectively. Conclusion: HCV screening is cost-effective. However, the budget impact may have a strong influence on decision making.

Cost-effectiveness of the HepCATT intervention in specialist drug clinics to improve case-finding and engagement with HCV treatment for people who inject drugs in England

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

People who inject drugs (PWID) are at high risk of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection; however, ~50% are undiagnosed in England and linkage-to-care is poor. This study investigated the cost-effectiveness of an intervention (HepCATT) to improve case-finding and referral to HCV treatment compared with standard-of-care pathways in drug treatment centres in England.

DESIGN

HCV transmission and disease progression model with cost-effectiveness analysis using a health-care perspective. Primary outcome and cost data from the HepCATT study parameterized the intervention, suggesting that HepCATT increased HCV testing in drug treatment centres 2.5-fold and engagement onto the HCV treatment pathway 10-fold. A model was used to estimate the decrease in HCV infections and HCV-related deaths from 2016, with costs and health benefits (quality-adjusted life-years or QALYs) tracked over 50 years. Univariable and probabilistic sensitivity analyses (PSA) were undertaken.

SETTING

England-specific epidemic with 40% prevalence of chronic HCV among PWID.

PARTICIPANTS

PWID attending drug treatment centres.

INTERVENTION

Nurse facilitator in drug treatment centres to improve the HCV care pathway from HCV case-finding to referral and linkage to specialist care. Comparator was the standard-of-care HCV care pathway.

MEASUREMENTS

Incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) in terms of cost per QALY gained through improved case-finding.

FINDINGS

Over 50 years per 1000 PWID, the HepCATT intervention could prevent 75 (95% central interval 37-129) deaths and 1330 (827-2040) or 51% (30-67%) of all new infections. The mean ICER was £7986 per QALY gained, with all PSA simulations being cost-effective at a £20 000 per QALY willingness-to-pay threshold. Univariable sensitivity analyses suggest the intervention would become cost-saving if the cost of HCV treatment reduces to £3900. If scaled up to all PWID in England, the intervention would cost £8.8 million and decrease incidence by 56% (33-70%) by 2030.

CONCLUSIONS

Increasing hepatitis C virus infection case-finding and treatment referral in drug treatment centres could be a highly cost-effective strategy for decreasing hepatitis C virus incidence among people who inject drugs.

The cost-effectiveness of an HCV outreach intervention for at-risk populations in London, UK

Background

HCV disproportionately affects marginalized communities such as homeless populations and people who inject drugs (PWID), posing a challenge to traditional health services. The HepFriend initiative in London is a model of care utilizing HCV outreach screening and peer support to link vulnerable individuals to HCV treatment in secondary care.

Objectives

To assess the cost-effectiveness of the HepFriend initiative from a healthcare provider perspective, compared with standard-of-care pathways (consisting of testing in primary care and other static locations, including drug treatment centres, and linkage to secondary care).

Methods

Cost-effectiveness analysis using a dynamic HCV transmission and disease progression model among PWID and those who have ceased injecting, including housing status and drug treatment service contact. The model was parameterized using London-specific surveillance and survey data, and primary intervention cost and effectiveness data (September 2015 to June 2018). Out of 461 individuals screened, 197 were identified as HCV RNA positive, 180 attended secondary care and 89 have commenced treatment to date. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was determined using a 50 year time horizon.

Results

For a willingness-to-pay threshold of £20000 per QALY gained, the HepFriend initiative is cost-effective, with a mean ICER of £9408/QALY, and would become cost saving at 27% (£10525 per treatment) of the current drug list price. Results are robust to variations in intervention costs and model assumptions, and if treatment rates are doubled the intervention becomes more cost-effective (£8853/QALY).

Conclusions

New models of care that undertake active case-finding with enhanced peer support to improve testing and treatment uptake amongst marginalized and vulnerable groups could be highly cost-effective and possibly cost saving.

Detachable low dead space syringes for the prevention of hepatitis C among people who inject drugs in Bristol, UK: an economic evaluation

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Traditional detachable syringes used by people who inject drugs (PWID) retain larger volumes of blood when the plunger is depressed than syringes with fixed needles-referred to as high (HDSS) and low dead space syringes (LDSS), respectively. Evidence suggests that using HDSS may result in greater hepatitis C virus (HCV) transmission risk than LDSS. We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of an intervention to introduce detachable LDSS in a needle and syringe programme (NSP).

DESIGN

HCV transmission and disease progression model with cost-effectiveness analysis using a health-care perspective. Detachable LDSS are associated with increased costs (£0.008) per syringe, yearly staff training costs (£536) and an estimated decreased risk (by 47.5%) of HCV transmission compared with HDSS. The intervention was modelled for 10 years, with costs and health benefits (quality-adjusted life-years: QALYs) tracked over 50 years.

SETTING

Bristol, UK.

PARTICIPANTS AND CASES

PWID attending NSP.

INTERVENTION AND COMPARATOR

Gradual replacement of HDSS at NSP, with 8, 58 and 95% of HDSS being replaced by detachable LDSS in 2016, 2017 and 2018, respectively. Comparator was continuing use of HDSS.

MEASUREMENTS

Net monetary benefit. Benefits were measured in QALYs.

FINDINGS

Introducing detachable LDSS was associated with a small increase in intervention costs (£21 717) compared with not introducing detachable LDSS, but considerable savings in HCV-related treatment and care costs (£4 138 118). Overall cost savings were £4 116 401 over 50 years and QALY gains were 1000, with an estimated 30% reduction in new infections over the 10-year intervention period. In all sensitivity analyses, detachable LDSS resulted in cost savings and additional QALYs. Threshold analyses suggested that detachable LDSS would need to reduce HCV transmission risk of HDSS by 0.26% to be cost-saving and 0.04% to be cost-effective.

CONCLUSIONS

Replacing high dead space syringes with detachable low dead space syringes in needle and syringe programmes in the United Kingdom is likely to be a cost-saving approach for reducing hepatitis C virus transmission.

Inhibition of cardiomyocyte differentiation of human induced pluripotent stem cells by Ribavirin: Implication for its cardiac developmental toxicity

Ribavirin has been proven to be an antiviral treatment, whereas there are still risks of hemolysis and congenital malformation. Abnormal cardiac development contributes to the occurrence and development of many heart diseases. However, there is so far no evidence that ribavirin induces human cardiac developmental toxicity. Herein, we employed the cardiac differentiation model of human induced pluripotent stem cells (hiPSCs) to determine the impact of ribavirin on heart development. Our data showed that ribavirin at clinically high concentrations (5 and 10 μM) significantly inhibited the proliferation and differentiation of hiPSCs from mesoderm to cardiac progenitor cells and cardiac progenitor cells to cardiomyocytes, but not from pluripotent status to mesoderm. Meanwhile, DCFH-DA staining revealed that ribavirin could increase ROS content in the mid-phase of differentiation. In addition, ribavirin treatment (1, 5 and 10 μM) remarkably caused DNA damage which was shown by the increase of γH2AX-positive cells and upregulation of the p53 during the differentiation of hiPSCs from mesoderm to cardiac progenitor cells. Moreover, exposuring to ribavirin (5 and 10 μM) markedly upregulated the expression of lncRNAs Gas5 in both mid-phase and late phase of differentiation and HBL1 in the mid-phase. In conclusion, our results suggest that ribavirin is detrimental in cardiac differentiation of hiPSCs, which may be associated with DNA damage, upregulated p53 and increased Gas5. It may provide the evidence for the rational clinical application of ribavirin.

Interim effect evaluation of the hepatitis C elimination programme in Georgia: a modelling study

BACKGROUND

Georgia has a high prevalence of hepatitis C, with 5·4% of adults chronically infected. On April 28, 2015, Georgia launched a national programme to eliminate hepatitis C by 2020 (90% reduction in prevalence) through scaled-up treatment and prevention interventions. We evaluated the interim effect of the programme and feasibility of achieving the elimination goal.

METHODS

We developed a transmission model to capture the hepatitis C epidemic in Georgia, calibrated to data from biobehavioural surveys of people who inject drugs (PWID; 1998-2015) and a national survey (2015). We projected the effect of the administration of direct-acting antiviral treatments until Feb 28, 2019, and the effect of continuing current treatment rates until the end of 2020. Effect was estimated in terms of the relative decrease in hepatitis C incidence, prevalence, and mortality relative to 2015 and of the deaths and infections averted compared with a counterfactual of no treatment over the study period. We also estimated treatment rates needed to reach Georgia's elimination target.

FINDINGS

From May 1, 2015, to Feb 28, 2019, 54 313 patients were treated, with approximately 1000 patients treated per month since mid 2017. Compared with 2015, our model projects that these treatments have reduced the prevalence of adult chronic hepatitis C by a median 37% (95% credible interval 30-44), the incidence of chronic hepatitis C by 37% (29-44), and chronic hepatitis C mortality by 14% (3-30) and have prevented 3516 (1842-6250) new infections and averted 252 (134-389) deaths related to chronic hepatitis C. Continuing treatment of 1000 patients per month is predicted to reduce prevalence by 51% (42-61) and incidence by 51% (40-62), by the end of 2020. To reach a 90% reduction by 2020, treatment rates must increase to 4144 (2963-5322) patients initiating treatment per month.

INTERPRETATION

Georgia's hepatitis C elimination programme has achieved substantial treatment scale-up, which has reduced the burden of chronic hepatitis C. However, the country is unlikely to meet its 2020 elimination target unless treatment scales up considerably.

FUNDING

CDC Foundation, National Institute for Health Research, National Institutes of Health.

Cost-effectiveness of transplanting lungs and kidneys from donors with potential hepatitis C exposure or infection

Organ transplant guidelines in many settings recommend that people with potential hepatitis C virus (HCV) exposure or infection are deemed ineligible to donate. The recent availability of highly-effective treatments for HCV means that this may no longer be necessary. We used a mathematical model to estimate the expected difference in healthcare costs, difference in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and cost-effectiveness of removing HCV restrictions for lung and kidney donations in Australia. Our model suggests that allowing organ donations from people who inject drugs, people with a history of incarceration and people who are HCV antibody-positive could lead to an estimated 10% increase in organ supply, population-level improvements in health (reduction in DALYs), and on average save AU$2,399 (95%CI AU$1,155-3,352) and AU$2,611 (95%CI AU$1,835-3,869) per person requiring a lung and kidney transplant respectively. These findings are likely to hold for international settings, since this policy change remained cost saving with positive health gains regardless of HCV prevalence, HCV treatment cost and waiting list survival probabilities. This study suggests that guidelines on organ donation should be revisited in light of recent changes to clinical outcomes for people with HCV.

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Ombitasvir/Paritaprevir/Ritonavir and Dasabuvir With or Without Ribavirin Regimen for Patients Infected With Chronic Hepatitis C Virus Genotype 1 in Malaysia

OBJECTIVES

The combination of pegylated-interferon and ribavirin (PegIFN+RBV) is currently the gold standard in treating chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) patients in Malaysia and is reimbursed by the Malaysian authorities. This analysis evaluated the cost-effectiveness (CE) of the ombitasvir/paritaprevir/ritonavir and dasabuvir with or without ribavirin (OBT/PTV/r+DSB±RBV) regimen as compared with the PegIFN+RBV or no treatment in chronic HCV Genotype 1 (GT1) treatment-naïve and treatment-experienced cirrhotic and noncirrhotic patients in Malaysia.

METHODS

A Markov model based on previously published CE models of HCV was adapted for the Malaysian public healthcare payer perspective, based on good modeling practices. Treatment attributes included efficacy, regimen duration, and EQ-5D treatment-related health utility. Transitional probabilities and health state health utilities were derived from previous studies. Costs were derived from Malaysian data sources. Costs and outcomes were discounted at 3.0% per year. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed to evaluate the impact of uncertainties around key variables.

RESULTS

Based on the analysis, patients treated with the OBT/PTV/r+DSB±RBV showed less frequent progression to compensated cirrhosis, decompensated cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma, and liver-related deaths when compared with standard care (ie, PegIFN+RBV or no treatment). At a price of MYR 1846/day, the OBT/PTV/r+DSB±RBV regimen is cost-effective over PegIFN+RBV and yields better outcomes in terms of life-years (LYs) gained and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) at a higher cost, which is still well below the implied willingness to pay threshold of MYR 384 503/QALY.

CONCLUSION

The OBT/PTV/r+DSB±RBV regimen is cost-effective for treatment naïve, treatment experienced, cirrhotic, and noncirrhotic GT1 chronic HCV patients in Malaysia.

A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Glecaprevir/Pibrentasvir Versus Existing Direct-Acting Antivirals to Treat Chronic Hepatitis C in Japan

INTRODUCTION

The objective of the study was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of glecaprevir/pibrentasvir versus other direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) for treating chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infections in Japan.

METHODS

We developed a health state transition model to capture the natural history of HCV. A cost-effectiveness analysis of DAAs from the perspective of a public healthcare payer in Japan with a lifetime horizon over annual cycles was performed. Treatment attributes, baseline demographics, transition probabilities, health-state utilities, and costs data were extracted from publications. Costs and outcomes were discounted at 2% per annum. In the base case we focused on genotype 1 (GT1) treatment-naïve patients without cirrhosis. The scenario analysis examined a pan-genotype treatment in GT1-3 (i.e., portfolio), treatment-naïve, and treatment-experienced patients. The portfolio cost-effectiveness of DAAs was derived by calculating a weighted average of patient segments defined by treatment history, cirrhosis status, and genotype.

RESULTS

The base case results indicated that glecaprevir/pibrentasvir was dominant (i.e., generating higher quality-adjusted life years [QALYs] and lower lifetime costs) compared to all other DAAs. The predicted lifetime risk of hepatocellular carcinoma was 3.66% for glecaprevir/pibrentasvir and sofosbuvir/ledipasvir, 4.99% for elbasvir/grazoprevir, and 5.27% for daclatasvir/asunaprevir/beclabuvir. In scenario analysis the glecaprevir/pibrentasvir (GLE/PIB) portfolio dominated the sofosbuvir (SOF)-based portfolio (namely sofosbuvir/ledipasvir in GT1-2 and sofosbuvir + ribavirin in GT3). The base case probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) showed that glecaprevir/pibrentasvir was cost-effective in 93.4% of the simulations for a willingness-to-pay/QALY range of Japanese yen (JPY) 1.6-20 million. The PSA for the portfolio scenario indicated that the GLE/PIB portfolio was cost-effective in 100% of simulations until the willingness-to-pay/QALY reached JPY 5.2 million; this proportion decreased to 69.4% at a willingness-to-pay/QALY of JPY 20 million. Results were also robust in deterministic sensitivity analyses.

CONCLUSION

In GT1 treatment-naïve non-cirrhotic patients GLE/PIB was a cost-effective strategy compared to other DAAs. When a pan-genotypic framework was used, the GLE/PIB portfolio dominated the SOF-based portfolio.

Upscaling prevention, testing and treatment to control hepatitis C as a public health threat in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania: A cost-effectiveness model

BACKGROUND

Hepatitis C (HCV) elimination strategies are required for low and middle-income countries (LMICs), because although treatment access is currently limited, this is unlikely to remain the case forever. We estimate and compare the impact, cost and cost-effectiveness of a variety of prevent, test and treat strategies for HCV in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania.

METHODS

A mathematical model.

RESULTS

Without intervention, the HCV epidemic in Dar es Salaam was estimated to result in US$29.1 million in disease costs between 2018 and 2030. Maintaining existing harm reduction coverage (4% needle and syringe program, 42% opioid substitution therapy) over this period was estimated to prevent 22% of injecting drug use-acquired HCV infections compared to a zero coverage scenario. Implementing antibody/RNA, serum-based HCV core antigen (HCVcAg) and dry blood spot (DBS) HCVcAg test/treat programs among PWID increased the total cost by US$0.7 million, US$3.1 million and US$6.5 million respectively by 2030; however this expenditure led to 57%, 61% and 73% reductions in annual incidence among PWID, 25%, 27% and 33% reductions overall annual incidence (PWID+non-PWID), and reduced HCV prevalence among PWID from 27% to 9%, 8% and 5%, respectively. The Ab/RNA, serum-based and DBS HCVcAg test/treat programs cost US$689, US$2857 and US$5400 per disability-adjusted life year averted, respectively, compared to no test/treat program.

CONCLUSION

Primary prevention among PWID can provide important reductions in HCV transmission in the absence of treatment availability. HCV Ab/RNA or serum-based HCVcAg test/treat programs among PWID are likely to be cost-effective in Dar es Salaam, with serum-based HCVcAg test/treat achieving greater impact due to a simpler diagnostic process and better retention in care. If used for regular testing of PWID, the additional coverage benefits of non-laboratory-based DBS HCVcAg tests in LMICs would outweigh their reduced sensitivity.

Predicting Hepatitis B Virus Infection Based on Health Examination Data of Community Population

Despite a decline in the prevalence of hepatitis B in China, the disease burden remains high. Large populations unaware of infection risk often fail to meet the ideal treatment window, resulting in poor prognosis. The purpose of this study was to develop and evaluate models identifying high-risk populations who should be tested for hepatitis B surface antigen. Data came from a large community-based health screening, including 97,173 individuals, with an average age of 54.94. A total of 33 indicators were collected as model predictors, including demographic characteristics, routine blood indicators, and liver function. Borderline-Synthetic minority oversampling technique (SMOTE) was conducted to preprocess the data and then four predictive models, namely, the extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), random forest (RF), decision tree (DT), and logistic regression (LR) algorithms, were developed. The positive rate of hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) was 8.27%. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curves for XGBoost, RF, DT, and LR models were 0.779, 0.752, 0.619, and 0.742, respectively. The Borderline-SMOTE XGBoost combined model outperformed the other models, which correctly predicted 13,637/19,435 cases (sensitivity 70.8%, specificity 70.1%), and the variable importance plot of XGBoost model indicated that age was of high importance. The prediction model can be used to accurately identify populations at high risk of hepatitis B infection that should adopt timely appropriate medical treatment measures.

Cost-Effectiveness of One-Time Birth Cohort Screening for Hepatitis C as Part of the National Health Service Health Check Program in England

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Birth cohort screening for the hepatitis C virus (HCV) has been implemented in the US, but there is little evidence of its cost-effectiveness in England. We aim to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of one-time HCV screening for individuals born between 1950 and 1979 as part of the National Health Service health check in England, a health check for adults aged 40 to 74 years in primary care.

METHODS

A Markov model was developed to analyze add-on HCV testing to the National Health Service health check for individuals in birth cohorts between 1950 and 1979, versus current background HCV testing only, over a lifetime horizon. The model used data from a back-calculation model of the burden of HCV in England, sentinel surveillance of HCV testing, and published literature. Results are presented from a health service perspective in pounds in 2017, as incremental cost-effectiveness ratios per quality-adjusted life years gained.

RESULTS

The base-case incremental cost-effectiveness ratios ranged from £7648 to £24 434, and £18 681 to £46 024, across birth cohorts when considering 2 sources of HCV transition probabilities. The intervention is most likely to be cost-effective for those born in the 1970s, and potentially cost-effective for those born from 1955 to 1969. The model results were most sensitive to the source of HCV transition probabilities, the probability of referral and receiving treatment, and the HCV prevalence among testers. The maximum value of future research across all birth cohorts was £11.3 million at £20 000 per quality-adjusted life years gained.

CONCLUSION

Birth cohort screening is likely to be cost-effective for younger birth cohorts, although considerable uncertainty exists for other birth cohorts. Further studies are warranted to reduce uncertainty in cost-effectiveness and consider the acceptability of the intervention.

Epidemiología, consumo de recursos y costos del manejo médico de la Hepatitis C en Argentina, Colombia, Uruguay y Venezuela

OBJECTIVE

To describe the epidemiology, the consumption of resources and the relevant costs in the management of hepatitis C in four Latin American countries: Argentina, Colombia, Uruguay and Venezuela.

STUDY DESIGN

Bibliographic review, study of costs and elicitation by experts METHODS: A literature search was carried out to collect epidemiological and cost data for the management of the disease. Information was additionally elicited with hepatologists from each country using the modified Delphi Panel technique. For the estimation of costs, the perspective of the health system was adopted. The direct medical costs of the different stages associated with the natural history of the disease were considered through micro-costing.

RESULTS

Extensive epidemiological and economic information is provided for the four countries under study. The age range between 40 and 60 years was the most affected. The frequency of genotypes showed a predominance of genotype 1 (68 to 88%), genotype 1b having been reported as the most prevalent in Argentina and Colombia and 1a in Uruguay and Venezuela. The costs of drug regimens, associated health events and adverse events present important differences in the four selected countries of Latin America.

CONCLUSION

Hepatitis C presents a high burden of disease in the countries under study, and its management imposes significant costs on health systems.

A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Shortened Direct-Acting Antiviral Treatment in Genotype 1 Noncirrhotic Treatment-Naive Patients With Chronic Hepatitis C Virus

BACKGROUND

Direct-acting antivirals are successful in curing hepatitis C virus infection in more than 95% of patients treated for 12 weeks, but they are expensive. Shortened treatment durations, which may have lower cure rates, have been proposed to reduce costs.

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the lifetime cost-effectiveness of different shortened treatment durations for genotype 1 noncirrhotic treatment-naive patients.

METHODS

Assuming a UK National Health Service perspective, we used a probabilistic decision tree and Markov model to compare 3 unstratified shortened treatment durations (8, 6, and 4 weeks) against a standard 12-week treatment duration. Patients failing shortened first-line treatment were re-treated with a 12-week treatment regimen. Parameter inputs were taken from published studies.

RESULTS

The 8-week treatment duration had an expected incremental net monetary benefit of £7737 (95% confidence interval £3242-£11 819) versus the standard 12-week treatment, per 1000 patients. The 6-week treatment had a positive incremental net monetary benefit, although some uncertainty was observed. The probability that the 8- and 6-week treatments were the most cost-effective was 56% and 25%, respectively, whereas that for the 4-week treatment was 17%. Results were generally robust to sensitivity analyses, including a threshold analysis that showed that the 8-week treatment was the most cost-effective at all drug prices lower than £40 000 per 12-week course.

CONCLUSIONS

Shortening treatments licensed for 12 weeks to 8 weeks is cost-effective in genotype 1 noncirrhotic treatment-naive patients. There was considerable uncertainty in the estimates for 6- and 4-week treatments, with some indication that the 6-week treatment may be cost-effective.

Evaluating the cost-effectiveness of existing needle and syringe programmes in preventing hepatitis C transmission in people who inject drugs

AIM

To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of needle and syringe programmes (NSPs) compared with no NSPs on hepatitis C virus (HCV) transmission in the United Kingdom.

DESIGN

Cost-effectiveness analysis from a National Health Service (NHS)/health-provider perspective, utilizing a dynamic transmission model of HCV infection and disease progression, calibrated using city-specific surveillance and survey data, and primary data collection on NSP costs. The effectiveness of NSPs preventing HCV acquisition was based on empirical evidence.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

UK settings with different chronic HCV prevalence among people who inject drugs (PWID): Dundee (26%), Walsall (18%) and Bristol (45%) INTERVENTIONS: Current NSP provision is compared with a counterfactual scenario where NSPs are removed for 10 years and then returned to existing levels with effects collected for 40 years.

MEASUREMENTS

HCV infections and cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained through NSPs over 50 years.

FINDINGS

Compared with a willingness-to-pay threshold of £20 000 per QALY gained, NSPs were highly cost-effective over a time-horizon of 50 years and decreased the number of HCV incident infections. The mean incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was cost-saving in Dundee and Bristol, and £596 per QALY gained in Walsall, with 78, 46 and 40% of simulations being cost-saving in each city, respectively, with differences driven by coverage of NSP and HCV prevalence (lowest in Walsall). More than 90% of simulations were cost-effective at the willingness-to-pay threshold. Results were robust to sensitivity analyses, including varying the time-horizon, HCV treatment cost and numbers of HCV treatments per year.

CONCLUSIONS

Needle and syringe programmes are a highly effective low-cost intervention to reduce hepatitis C virus transmission, and in some settings they are cost-saving. Needle and syringe programmes are likely to remain cost-effective irrespective of changes in hepatitis C virus treatment cost and scale-up.

Impact of current and scaled-up levels of hepatitis C prevention and treatment interventions for people who inject drugs in three UK settings-what is required to achieve the WHO's HCV elimination targets?

AIMS

To estimate the impact of existing high-coverage needle and syringe provision (HCNSP, defined as obtaining more than one sterile needle and syringe per injection reported) and opioid substitution therapy (OST) on hepatitis C virus (HCV) transmission among people who inject drugs (PWID) in three UK settings and to determine required scale-up of interventions, including HCV treatment, needed to reach the World Health Organization (WHO) target of reducing HCV incidence by 90% by 2030.

DESIGN

HCV transmission modelling using UK empirical estimates for effect of OST and/or HCNSP on individual risk of HCV acquisition.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

Three UK cities with varying chronic HCV prevalence (Bristol 45%, Dundee 26%, Walsall 19%), OST (72-81%) and HCNSP coverage (28-56%).

MEASUREMENTS

Relative change in new HCV infections throughout 2016-30 if current interventions were stopped. Scale-up of HCNSP, OST and HCV treatment required to achieve the WHO elimination target.

FINDINGS

Removing HCNSP or OST would increase the number of new HCV infections throughout 2016 to 2030 by 23-64 and 92-483%, respectively. Conversely, scaling-up these interventions to 80% coverage could achieve a 29 or 49% reduction in Bristol and Walsall, respectively, whereas Dundee may achieve a 90% decrease in incidence with current levels of intervention because of existing high levels of HCV treatment (47-58 treatments per 1000 PWID). If OST and HCNSP are scaled-up, Walsall and Bristol can achieve the same impact by treating 14 or 40 per 1000 PWID annually, respectively (currently two and nine treatments per 1000 PWID), while 18 and 43 treatments per 1000 PWID would be required if OST and HCNSP are not scaled-up.

CONCLUSIONS

Current opioid substitution therapy and high-coverage needle and syringe provision coverage is averting substantial hepatitis C transmission in the United Kingdom. Maintaining this coverage while getting current drug injectors onto treatment can reduce incidence by 90% by 2030.

Assessing uncertainty in the burden of hepatitis C virus: Comparison of estimated disease burden and treatment costs in the UK

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is a major and growing public health concern. We need to know the expected health burden and treatment cost, and understand uncertainty in those estimates, to inform policymaking and future research. Two models that have been important in informing treatment guidelines and assessments of HCV burden were compared by simulating cohorts of individuals with chronic HCV infection initially aged 20, 35 and 50 years. One model predicts that health losses (measured in quality-adjusted life-years [QALYs]) and treatment costs decrease with increasing initial age of the patients, whilst the other model predicts that below 40 years, costs increase and QALY losses change little with age, and above 40 years, they decline with increasing age. Average per-patient costs differ between the models by up to 38%, depending on the patients' initial age. One model predicts double the total number, and triple the peak annual incidence, of liver transplants compared to the other model. One model predicts 55%-314% more deaths than the other, depending on the patients' initial age. The main sources of difference between the models are estimated progression rates between disease states and rates of health service utilization associated with different disease states and, in particular, the age dependency of these parameters. We conclude that decision-makers need to be aware that uncertainties in the health burden and economic cost of HCV disease have important consequences for predictions of future need for care and cost-effectiveness of interventions to avert HCV transmission, and further quantification is required to inform decisions.

Cost-effectiveness of daclatasvir plus asunaprevir for chronic hepatitis C genotype 1b treatment-naïve patients in China

BACKGROUND

Hepatitis C is the second fastest growing infectious disease in China. The standard-of-care for chronic hepatitis C in China is Pegylated interferon plus ribavirin (PR), which is associated with tolerability and efficacy issues. An interferon- and ribavirin-free, all-oral regimen comprising daclatasvir (DCV) and asunaprevir (ASV), which displays higher efficacy and tolerability, has recently been approved in China.

OBJECTIVES

This study is to estimate the cost-effectiveness of DCV+ASV (24 weeks) for chronic hepatitis C genotype 1b treatment-naïve patients compared with PR regimen (48 weeks) in China.

METHODS

A cohort-based Markov model was developed from Chinese payer perspective to project the lifetime outcomes of treating 10,000 patients with an average age of 44.5 with two hypothetical regimens, DCV+ASV and PR. Chinese-specific health state costs and efficacy data were used. The annual discount rate was 5%. Base-case analysis and sensitivity analysis were conducted.

RESULTS

For HCV Genotype 1b treatment-naïve patients, DCV+ASV proved to be dominant over PR, with a cost saving of ¥33,480(5,096 USD) and gains in QALYs and life years of 1.29 and 0.85, respectively. The lifetime risk of compensated cirrhosis, decompensated cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma and liver-related death was greatly reduced with DCV+ASV. Univariate sensitivity analysis demonstrated that key influencers were the discount rate, time horizon, initial disease severity and sustained virological response rate of DCV+ASV, with all scenarios resulting in additional benefit. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis demonstrated that DCV+ASV has a high likelihood (100%) of being cost-effective.

CONCLUSION

DCV+ASV is not only an effective and well-tolerated regimen to treat chronic HCV genotype 1b infection treatment-naïve patients, but also is more cost-effective than PR regimen. DCV+ASV can benefit both the public health and reimbursement system in China.

Cost-effectiveness of novel treatment of hepatitis C virus in Lebanese patients

Background Limited data is available on Hepatitis C disease prevalence, treatment initiation and its cost-effectiveness in Lebanon and the whole Middle East. Objective The aim of the study is to assess whether initiation of novel Direct Acting Antiviral agents (DAAs) at early stage of hepatitis C is cost-effective in Lebanese patients. Setting Lebanon. Methods This modeling study was conducted from the perspective of Lebanese third party payers, where existing practice is based on international guidelines for the diagnosis and treatment of diseases. The model assessed cost-effectiveness of early versus delayed DAAs treatment in a standard patient upon HCV diagnosis. Medical costs were valued using in-house database. Main outcome measures Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratio (ICER) per QALY and per life-year extended. Results Treatment at early HCV disease stage has led to an ICER of 587 euro per QALY gained throughout the course of the disease. Outcomes of early treatment with DAAs upon HCV diagnosis led to an incremental cost of 27,268 euro per QALY gained at first year of treatment, and of 1527 euro per additional life-year extended. Sensitivity analysis showed that a 25% decrease in the cost of dual drug option resulted in a decrease of incremental cost to 16,982 euro per QALY gained at first year of treatment with DAAs upon early HCV diagnosis. Conclusion Decision makers are encouraged to reinforce the need to screen for HCV and initiate novel treatment at early disease stage in the Lebanese healthcare system.

Evaluation of health status in patients with hepatitis c treated with and without interferon

Background

The evolution of technology in healthcare has increased the health care’s costs and, the universal healthcare systems, in developed countries, need to ensure proper allocation of resources. Thus, the major issue is assessing the effectiveness of new medical technologies. The evaluation of quality of life in response to new treatments has become a key indicator in chronic conditions for which medical interventions are evaluated not only in terms of increasing the number of expected life years but also in terms of increasing quality of life. The aim of this observational study was to verify whether a simple instrument (EQ-5D-5 L) can capture variations in health-related quality of life (HRQoL) and allow us to evaluate the impact of different drug treatment protocols in patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV) on daily activities.

Methods

Sixty six patients with HCV were consecutively enrolled in the Hepatology Unit at the University Hospital of Catania “G. Rodolico”. Sixteen patients received new direct-acting-antiviral agents (DAAs) plus pegylated alpha interferon (Peg-α-IFN) protocol (Group A) and 50 DAAs IFN free protocol (Group B).

The EQ-5D-5 L® questionnaire and visual analog scale (VAS) were given to both groups to calculate coefficient’s utility. We used the EQ-5D-5 L Crosswalk Index Value Calculator to obtain the utility EQIndex and both parametric and non parametric tests for the statistical analysis.

Results

The biopsy taken at the beginning of treatment showed comparable cell damage in both groups. The difference in the VAS results was negative for patients who received protocols containing IFN (indicating decreased quality of life),whereas it was positive in patients treated with IFN-free protocols. The baseline EQIndex did not reveal any differences between the two treatment groups. The post-treatment EQIndex was statistically better in the groups that received IFN-free therapy.

Conclusions

When innovative treatments are introduced into clinical practice, assessing quality of life is mandatory to determine their benefits. The instruments used in the present study are effective in detecting the areas in which improvement has occurred. These instruments can be easily managed by general practitioners for follow up of progression of the disease and referred to the specialist.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of the use of daclatasvir + sofosbuvir + ribavirin (16 weeks and 12 weeks) vs sofosbuvir + ribavirin (16 weeks and 24 weeks) for the treatment of cirrhotic patients affected with hepatitis C virus genotype 3 in Italy

The WHO estimates that more than 185 million people are infected with hepatitis C virus (HCV) worldwide. The aim of the study is to assess the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of the use of daclatasvir (DCV) + sofosbuvir (SOF) + ribavirin (RBV) for 12 and 16 weeks vs SOF + RBV for 16 and 24 weeks for the treatment of genotype 3 HCV infected cirrhotic patients from the Italian National Health Service (NHS) perspective. A published cohort-based Markov model was used to perform the analysis estimating the lifetime direct medical costs associated with the management of the pathology and the quality adjusted life years gained by patients. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed to test the robustness of the results. SOF + RBV for 16 weeks was excluded from the analysis due to the significant lower effectiveness, compared with SOF + RBV for 24 weeks (51% vs 79%). DCV + SOF + RBV would increase QALYs and costs in all the comparisons: the ICERs obtained comparing DCV + SOF + RBV for 12 and 16 weeks with SOF + RBV for 24 weeks (reference scenario) are 38,572 €/QALY and 16,436 €/QALY, respectively, both below the 40,000 €/QALY threshold identified by the Italian Health Economics Association. Sensitivity analyses confirmed the robustness of the results. The use of DCV + SOF + RBV is likely to be cost-effective compared with SOF + RBV (for 24 weeks) for the treatment of cirrhotic patients infected with genotype 3 HCV considering a threshold value of 40,000 €/QALY.

Characterization and structure-activity relationship study of iminodipyridinopyrimidines as novel hepatitis C virus inhibitor

Upon high-throughput screening of synthetic small molecule libraries with the infectious hepatitis C virus (HCV) cell culture system, we identified an iminodipyridinopyrimidine (IDPP) scaffold. IDPP did not inhibit HCV replication, but exhibited very potent inhibitory activity on early and late steps of HCV life cycle. Applying an intensive structure-activity relationship (SAR) study, a promising IDPP Lead compound (12c) with excellent potency (EC₅₀ = 10 nM), high safety margin (SI > 2000), and an acceptable stability in human and rat liver microsomes (t_1/2 >60 min) was identified. Overall, our results suggest that the IDPP scaffold could be used for the development of novel HCV interventions.

Hepatitis C disease transmission and treatment uptake: impact on the cost-effectiveness of new direct-acting antiviral therapies

BACKGROUND

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) treatment can reduce the incidence of future infections through removing opportunities for onward transmission. This benefit is not captured in conventional cost-effectiveness evaluations of treatment and is particularly relevant in patient groups with a high risk of transmission, such as those people who inject drugs (PWID), where the treatment rates have been historically low. This study aimed to quantify how reduced HCV transmission changes the cost-effectiveness of new direct-acting antiviral (DAA) regimens as a function of treatment uptake rates.

METHODS

An established model of HCV disease transmission and progression was used to quantify the impact of treatment uptake (10-100%), within the PWID population, on the cost-effectiveness of a DAA regimen versus pre-DAA standard of care, conducted using daclatasvir plus sofosbuvir in the UK setting as an illustrative example.

RESULTS

The consequences of reduced disease transmission due to treatment were associated with additional net monetary benefit of £24,304-£90,559 per patient treated at £20,000/QALY, when 10-100% of eligible patients receive treatment with 100% efficacy. Dependent on patient genotype, the cost-effectiveness of HCV treatment using daclatasvir plus sofosbuvir improved by 36-79% versus conventional analysis, at 10-100% treatment uptake in the PWID population.

CONCLUSIONS

The estimated cost-effectiveness of HCV treatment was shown to improve as more patients are treated, suggesting that the value of DAA regimens to the NHS could be enhanced by improved treatment uptake rates among PWID. However, the challenge for the future will lie in achieving increased rates of treatment uptake, particularly in the PWID population.

Assessing the impact and cost-effectiveness of needle and syringe provision and opioid substitution therapy on hepatitis C transmission among people who inject drugs in the UK: an analysis of pooled data sets and economic modelling

Background

There is limited evidence of the impact of needle and syringe programmes (NSPs) and opioid substitution therapy (OST) on hepatitis C virus (HCV) incidence among people who inject drugs (PWID), nor have there been any economic evaluations.

Objective(s)

To measure (1) the impact of NSP and OST, (2) changes in the extent of provision of both interventions, and (3) costs and cost-effectiveness of NSPs on HCV infection transmission.

Design

We conducted (1) a systematic review; (2) an analysis of existing data sets, including collating costs of NSPs; and (3) a dynamic deterministic model to estimate the impact of differing OST/NSP intervention coverage levels for reducing HCV infection prevalence, incidence and disease burden, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios to measure the cost-effectiveness of current NSP provision versus no provision.

Setting

Cost-effectiveness analysis and impact modelling in three UK sites. The pooled analysis drew on data from the UK and Australia. The review was international.

Participants

PWID.

Interventions

NSP coverage (proportion of injections covered by clean needles) and OST.

Outcome

New cases of HCV infection.

Results

The review suggested that OST reduced the risk of HCV infection acquisition by 50% [rate ratio (RR) 0.50, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.40 to 0.63]. Weaker evidence was found in areas of high (≥ 100%) NSP coverage (RR 0.77, 95% CI 0.38 to 1.54) internationally. There was moderate evidence for combined high coverage of NSPs and OST (RR 0.29, 95% CI 0.13 to 0.65). The pooled analysis showed that combined high coverage of NSPs and OST reduced the risk of HCV infection acquisition by 29–71% compared with those on minimal harm reduction (no OST, ≤ 100% NSP coverage). NSPs are likely to be cost-effective and are cost-saving in some settings. The impact modelling suggest that removing OST (current coverage 81%) and NSPs (coverage 54%) in one site would increase HCV infection incidence by 329% [95% credible interval (CrI) 110% to 953%] in 2031 and at least double (132% increase; 95% CrI 51% to 306%) the number of new infections over 15 years. Increasing NSP coverage to 80% has the largest impact in the site with the lowest current NSP coverage (35%), resulting in a 27% (95% CrI 7% to 43%) decrease in new infections and 41% (95% CrI 11% to 72%) decrease in incidence by 2031 compared with 2016. Addressing homelessness and reducing the harm associated with the injection of crack cocaine could avert approximately 60% of HCV infections over the next 15 years.

Limitations

Findings are limited by the misclassification of NSP coverage and the simplified intervention definition that fails to capture the integrated services that address other social and health needs as part of this.

Conclusions

There is moderate evidence of the effectiveness of OST and NSPs, especially in combination, on HCV infection acquisition risk. Policies to ensure that NSPs can be accessed alongside OST are needed. NSPs are cost-saving in some sites and cost-effective in others. NSPs and OST are likely to prevent considerable rates of HCV infection in the UK. Increasing NSP coverage will have most impact in settings with low coverage. Scaling up other interventions such as HCV infection treatment are needed to decrease epidemics to low levels in higher prevalence settings.

Future work

To understand the mechanisms through which NSPs and OST achieve their effect and the optimum contexts to support implementation.

Funding

The National Institute for Health Research Public Health Research programme.

Estimating the cost-effectiveness of daclatasvir + sofosbuvir versus sofosbuvir + ribavirin for patients with genotype 3 hepatitis C virus

BACKGROUND

As treatments for chronic hepatitis C are moving away from interferon-containing regimens, the most appropriate allocation of resources to higher cost, interferon-free, direct-acting antiviral (DAA) regimens needs to be assessed. Hepatitis C virus (HCV) genotype 3 is associated with faster disease progression and has fewer treatment options, historically, than other HCV genotypes. This analysis aims to estimate the comparative cost-effectiveness of two recently licenced interferon-free regimens for the treatment of HCV genotype 3.

METHODS

Utilising a published Markov model and results of a matching-adjusted indirect comparison of recently published clinical trial data (ALLY-3 and VALENCE, respectively), 12 weeks of treatment with daclatasvir + sofosbuvir (DCV + SOF) was compared to 24 weeks of treatment with sofosbuvir + ribavirin (SOF + RBV). UK-specific model inputs were used to inform a cost-utility analysis of these regimens.

RESULTS

In the base case analysis, DCV + SOF was found to be dominant over SOF + RBV in treatment-naïve patients, patients that had previously been treated, and patients that are intolerant to, or ineligible for, interferon-containing regimens. Given the low rates of treatment currently observed in the UK, DCV + SOF was also compared to no treatment in the interferon-ineligible/intolerant patients, and may be considered cost-effective with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of £8817.

CONCLUSIONS

When compared to 24 weeks of SOF + RBV, 12 weeks of treatment with DCV + SOF results in improved quality of life and reduced total costs, and therefore is likely to represent significant clinical and economic value as a treatment option for genotype 3 HCV infection.

Value of Sustained Virologic Response in Patients with Hepatitis C as a Function of Time to Progression of End-Stage Liver Disease

BACKGROUND

Targeted intervention in patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV) closest to end-stage liver disease (ESLD) progression may offer an approach to treatment prioritisation whilst delivering benefits for patients and the healthcare system. In contrast to previous HCV economic analyses, this study aimed to estimate the health economic value of sustained virologic response (SVR) stratified by the patient's propensity to progress to ESLD.

METHODS

An HCV natural history model was adapted to estimate the value of avoiding ESLD complications following SVR, assessed as cost offsets and quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gains, as a function of time to ESLD at treatment initiation. These outcomes were used to estimate the financial value of achieving SVR, defined as the maximum investment that could be allocated without exceeding a willingness-to-pay threshold of £20,000/QALY.

RESULTS

Regardless of time to ESLD onset, achieving SVR was beneficial, resulting in cost offsets and QALY gains, due to avoidance of ESLD complications. The value of achieving SVR was greatest in patients closest to ESLD onset, resulting in increased cost offsets and QALY gains (up to £50,901 and 9.56 QALYs). In patients closest to ESLD onset, the financial value of achieving SVR was £242,051, compared with £127,116 in patients furthest from onset.

CONCLUSIONS

Standard cost-effectiveness evaluations may underestimate the value of treatment in HCV patients closest to ESLD development. Targeted intervention would promote efficient allocation of limited healthcare resources and reconcile concerns surrounding the affordability of new direct-acting antivirals, by minimising the number-needed-to-treat to maximise health benefit, whilst minimising healthcare expenditure.

The cost impact of outreach testing and treatment for hepatitis C in an urban Drug Treatment Unit

BACKGROUND & AIMS

In developed countries persons who inject drugs (PWID) represents a significant risk for chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV). It is reported that up to half of persons with chronic HCV remain undiagnosed and reliance on attendance to specialist clinics remain a barrier to treatment. This study assesses the feasibility and cost-effectiveness of outreach screening and treatment within a Drug Treatment Unit (DTU).

METHODS

All persons attending a London DTU were offered HCV testing, and where appropriate follow-up and treatment by a specialist nurse at the DTU. Three years of data informed a cost-effective-analysis using a validated Markov model. A hypothetical scenario in which only direct acting antiviral (DAA) treatments were used was also assessed.

RESULTS

Of 321 persons eligible, 216 were screened, 89 were HCV positive and 66 had confirmatory evidence of viraemia. All were infected with either HCV genotype 1 or 3. Treatment was initiated in 29 persons, 22 with interferon based and 7 DAA only regimens. Following initial treatment 21 (72%) achieved SVR12. It is estimated that this programme represents an average per-patient cost-saving of £2498 and a quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gain of 4.10 over a lifetime. In a hypothetical scenario of all oral DAA treatment, an incremental cost per QALY of £1029 was estimated.

CONCLUSION

This study demonstrates feasibility and cost effectiveness of outreach testing and treatment of hepatitis C within comparable DTU settings. Additional costs of newer DAA therapies would not be prohibitive when considering willingness-to-pay thresholds commonly used by policy makers.

Optimizing choice of oral interferon-free treatment for genotype 1 hepatitis C virus using testing for NS5A resistance: a cost-utility analysis from the perspective of the Italian National Health Service

BACKGROUND

Patients with genotype-1 hepatitis C virus infection who have failed to respond to standard therapy or who relapse following treatment may be considered for an interferon-free regimen incorporating a nonstructural protein 5A (NS5A) inhibitor. Sustained virologic response (SVR) with these regimens is typically >90%, but this is reduced in patients with NS5A resistance. European Association for Study of the Liver guidelines recommend simeprevir + sofosbuvir ± ribavirin (SMV+SOF±R) for re-treating patients failing an NS5A inhibitor-containing regimen. An alternative strategy would be to test for NS5A resistance prior to treatment, with therapy optimized based on the results. This study investigates the cost-effectiveness of this strategy.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A Markov model was used to estimate disease progression for treatment-experienced genotype 1 patients with severe fibrosis or compensated cirrhosis. Targeted treatment with either SMV+SOF±R or sofosbuvir + ledipasvir ± ribavirin (SOF+LDV±R) based on pretreatment NS5A resistance testing was compared to routine SOF+LDV±R without testing. Treatment duration was 12 or 24 weeks for patients with severe fibrosis or compensated cirrhosis (Metavir F3/F4). SVR data for the treatment options were based on the results of published clinical trials. The analysis was carried out from the perspective of the Italian National Health Service.

RESULTS

Optimized treatment using NS5A resistance testing yielded 0.163 additional QALYs and increased costs of €2,789 per patient versus no testing. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was €17,078/QALY. Sensitivity analysis identified the SVR attributable to each of the treatment regimens as the most sensitive determinant of ICER (range: €10,055/QALY-€43,501/QALY across plausible range). Probabilistic sensitivity analysis demonstrated that, at a willingness-to-pay threshold of €30,000/QALY, the probability that NS5A-directed treatment will be cost-effective is 81.4%.

CONCLUSION

Optimizing therapy with either SMV+SOF±R or SOF+LDV±R based on pretreatment NS5A resistance testing was cost-effective from the perspective of the Italian National Health Service, in treatment-experienced patients with severe fibrosis or compensated cirrhosis.

A clinician's guide to the cost and health benefits of hepatitis C cure assessed from the individual patient perspective

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The hepatitis C virus (HCV) remains a considerable public health challenge. Novel direct-acting antiviral (DAA) regimens offer high cure rates and the promise of reduced HCV incidence and prevalence following the up-scaling of treatment. This has focused attention towards affordability. This study aimed to estimate the economic value of cure to evaluate the treatment costs justifiable from the patient perspective.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

A published, validated HCV model was utilized to contrast clinical and cost outcomes for patients aged 30-70 years, stratified by METAVIR F0-F4, for (i) no treatment and (ii) successful treatment [i.e. sustained virologic response (SVR)] ignoring the cost of treatment. Regression equations were fitted and used to determine the financial expenditure justifiable to achieve a cost-neutral or a cost-effective [£20 000 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY)] cure. Model inputs were derived from UK literature; costs and utilities were discounted at 3.5% over a lifetime horizon.

RESULTS

To achieve cost-neutrality, the maximum discounted expenditure justifiable for SVR was £3774-43 607 across ages and fibrosis stages. Spending between £19 745 (70 years, F0) and £188 420 (30 years, F4) on SVR is expected to be cost-effective at £20 000/QALY willingness-to-pay threshold.

CONCLUSION

Heterogeneity across HCV patients is considerable, which can obscure the relevance of conventional cohort-based economic models evaluated at the mean, particularly when considering the value of treatment at the individual patient level. By quantifying the full exposition of HCV cost-savings and health benefits realizable following HCV cure, this study provides insight into the economic value of successful treatment from the patient perspective.