Economic modelling of diagnostic and treatment pathways in National Institute for Health and Care Excellence clinical guidelines: the Modelling Algorithm Pathways in Guidelines (MAPGuide) project

Cost-effectiveness of diagnostic imaging modalities in symptomatic patients with lower limb peripheral arterial disease: discrete event simulation model

Objective

Lower limb peripheral arterial disease in the symptomatic stage has a significant effect on patients´ functional disability. Before an intervention, an imaging diagnostic examination is necessary to determine the extent of the disability. This study evaluates cost-effectiveness of duplex ultrasonography (DUS), digital subtraction angiography (DSA), computed tomography angiography (CTA) and magnetic resonance angiography (MRA) in the diagnostics of symptomatic patients with lower limb peripheral arterial disease indicated for endovascular or surgical intervention.

Methods

Discrete event simulation was used to capture lifetime costs and effects. Costs were calculated from the perspective of the health care payer, and the effects were calculated as quality-adjusted life year's (QALY's). The cost-effectiveness analysis was performed to pairwise compare CTA, MRA and DSA with DUS as the baseline diagnostic modality. A scenario analysis and probabilistic sensitivity analysis were carried out to evaluate the robustness of the results.

Results

In the basic case, the DUS diagnostic was the least expensive modality, at a cost of EUR 10,778, compared with EUR 10,804 for CTA, EUR 11,184 for MRA, and EUR 11,460 for DSA. The effects of DUS were estimated at 5.542 QALYs compared with 5.554 QALYs for both CTA and MRA, and 5.562 QALYs for DSA. The final incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) value of all evaluated modalities was below the cost-effectiveness threshold whereas CTA has the lowest ICER of EUR 2,167 per QALY. However, the results were associated with a large degree of uncertainty, because iterations were spread across all cost-effectiveness quadrants in the probabilistic sensitivity analysis.

Conclusion

For imaging diagnosis of symptomatic patients with lower limb peripheral arterial disease, CTA examination appears to be the most cost-effective strategy with the best ICER value. Baseline diagnostics of the DUS modality has the lowest costs, but also the lowest effects. DSA achieves the highest QALYs, but it is associated with the highest costs.

A Blueprint for Multi-use Disease Modeling in Health Economics: Results from Two Expert-Panel Consultations

BACKGROUND

The current use of health economic decision models in HTA is mostly confined to single use cases, which may be inefficient and result in little consistency over different treatment comparisons, and consequently inconsistent health policy decisions, for the same disorder. Multi-use disease models (MUDMs) (other terms: generic models, whole disease models, disease models) may offer a solution. However, much is uncertain about their definition and application. The current research aimed to develop a blueprint for the application of MUDMs.

METHODS

We elicited expert opinion using a two-round modified Delphi process. The panel consisted of experts and stakeholders in health economic modelling from various professional backgrounds. The first questionnaire concerned definition, terminology, potential applications, issues and recommendations for MUDMs and was based on an exploratory scoping review. In the second round, the panel members were asked to reconsider their input, based on feedback regarding first-round results, and to score issues and recommendations for priority. Finally, adding input from external advisors and policy makers in a structured way, an overview of issues and challenges was developed during two team consensus meetings.

RESULTS

In total, 54 respondents contributed to the panel results. The term 'multi-use disease models' was proposed and agreed upon, and a definition was provided. The panel prioritized 10 potential applications (with comparing alternative policies and supporting resource allocation decisions as the top 2), while 20 issues (with model transparency and stakeholders' roles as the top 2) were identified as challenges. Opinions on potential features concerning operationalization of multi-use models were given, with 11 of these subsequently receiving high priority scores (regular updates and revalidation after updates were the top 2).

CONCLUSIONS

MUDMs would improve on current decision support regarding cost-effectiveness information. Given feasibility challenges, this would be most relevant for diseases with multiple treatments, large burden of disease and requiring more complex models. The current overview offers policy makers a starting point to organize the development, use, and maintenance of MUDMs and to support choices concerning which diseases and policy decisions they will be helpful for.

Challenges and Opportunities in Interdisciplinary Research and Real-World Data for Treatment Sequences in Health Technology Assessments

With an ever-increasing number of treatment options, the assessment of treatment sequences has become crucial in health technology assessment (HTA). This review systematically explores the multifaceted challenges inherent in evaluating sequences, delving into their interplay and nuances that go beyond economic model structures. We synthesised a 'roadmap' of literature from key methodological studies, highlighting the evolution of recent advances and emerging research themes. These insights were compared against HTA guidelines to identify potential avenues for future research. Our findings reveal a spectrum of challenges in sequence evaluation, encompassing selecting appropriate decision-analytic modelling approaches and comparators, deriving appropriate clinical effectiveness evidence in the face of data scarcity, scrutinising effectiveness assumptions and statistical adjustments, considering treatment displacement, and optimising model computations. Integrating methodologies from diverse disciplines-statistics, epidemiology, causal inference, operational research and computer science-has demonstrated promise in addressing these challenges. An updated review of application studies is warranted to provide detailed insights into the extent and manner in which these methodologies have been implemented. Data scarcity on the effectiveness of treatment sequences emerged as a dominant concern, especially because treatment sequences are rarely compared in clinical trials. Real-world data (RWD) provide an alternative means for capturing evidence on effectiveness and future research should prioritise harnessing causal inference methods, particularly Target Trial Emulation, to evaluate treatment sequence effectiveness using RWD. This approach is also adaptable for analysing trials harbouring sequencing information and adjusting indirect comparisons when collating evidence from heterogeneous sources. Such investigative efforts could lend support to reviews of HTA recommendations and contribute to synthesising external control arms involving treatment sequences.

A systematic review of whole disease models for informing healthcare resource allocation decisions

BACKGROUND

Whole disease models (WDM) are large-scale, system-level models which can evaluate multiple decision questions across an entire care pathway. Whilst this type of model can offer several advantages as a platform for undertaking economic analyses, the availability and quality of existing WDMs is unknown.

OBJECTIVES

This systematic review aimed to identify existing WDMs to explore which disease areas they cover, to critically assess the quality of these models and provide recommendations for future research.

METHODS

An electronic search was performed on multiple databases (MEDLINE, EMBASE, the NHS Economic Evaluation Database and the Health Technology Assessment database) on 23rd July 2023. Two independent reviewers selected studies for inclusion. Study quality was assessed using the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) appraisal checklist for economic evaluations. Model characteristics were descriptively summarised.

RESULTS

Forty-four WDMs were identified, of which thirty-two were developed after 2010. The main disease areas covered by existing WDMs are heart disease, cancer, acquired immune deficiency syndrome and metabolic disease. The quality of included WDMs is generally low. Common limitations included failure to consider the harms and costs of adverse events (AEs) of interventions, lack of probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) and poor reporting.

CONCLUSIONS

There has been an increase in the number of WDMs since 2010. However, their quality is generally low which means they may require significant modification before they could be re-used, such as modelling AEs of interventions and incorporation of PSA. Sufficient details of the WDMs need to be reported to allow future reuse/adaptation.

Adapting global evidence-based practice guidelines to the Egyptian healthcare context: the Egyptian Pediatric Clinical Practice Guidelines Committee (EPG) initiative

Background

In Egypt, academic organizations, professional societies, and research groups develop clinical practice guidelines (CPGs) in order to improve patient quality care and safety. Although important improvements have been made over the past years, many of these consensus-based guideline documents still lack the transparency and methodological rigor of international standards and methodologies recommended by reference evidence-based healthcare and guideline organizations like the Guidelines International Network.

Main body of the abstract

In the Egyptian Pediatric Clinical Practice Guidelines Committee (EPG), we have adopted one of the CPG formal adaptation methodological frameworks named the 'Adapted ADAPTE', relevant CPG resources (e.g., the Appraisal of Guidelines for Research and Evaluation or AGREE II Instrument), and involved key stakeholders including clinical and healthcare topic experts and guideline methodologists in producing 32 trustworthy national evidence-based CPGs and one protocol customized to the healthcare context and services provided for Egyptian children. An EPG online website was launched to make these CPGs available and accessible as CPG summaries for pediatricians and relevant healthcare providers.

Short conclusion

The lessons learned, enablers, challenges, and solutions relevant to Egyptian National Pediatric CPGs identified in this paper could be used to address and enrich the debate on pediatric high-quality CPGs, especially for countries of similar contexts and systems.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s42269-023-01059-0.

Synergy between health technology assessments and clinical guidelines for multiple sclerosis

Decision-making for reimbursement and clinical guidelines (CGs) serves different purposes although the decision-criteria and required evidence largely overlap. This study aimed to assess similarities and discrepancies between health technology assessment (HTA) reports as compared to CGs for multiple sclerosis (MS) medicines. All HTA reports and corresponding CGs for MS from the UK, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Poland, Sweden, and the European Union were assessed to identify synergies in recommendations for MS medicines (approved 1995-2020). A content analysis of HTA reports and CGs was performed to identify similarities and discrepancies in wording of treatment recommendations across documents. We assessed 132 HTA reports and 9 CGs for 16 MS treatments. Final recommendations for reimbursement and inclusion in CGs were mostly similar (90%), albeit with considerable differences in treatment lines and subindications. Since 2010, HTA reports refer to the use of CGs in 42% (55/132) and to consultations with clinicians in 43% (57/132) of cases. Six of nine CGs referred to HTA reports and two referred to HTA consultations, in one case having a formal relation to the HTA organization. CGs referenced pharmacoeconomic studies (4/9) for costs and cost-effectiveness. To date, not all new HTA recommendations for MS treatments are included in CGs. Some synergy exists between treatment recommendations in HTA reports and CGs, although discrepancies were seen in timelines and in recommended treatment lines and subindications. More stakeholder dialogue and/or consultation of each other's publications may further improve synergy, facilitate transparency, and enhance patient access.

Process mining for healthcare decision analytics with micro-costing estimations

Managing constrained healthcare resources is an important and inescapable role of healthcare decision makers. Allocative decisions are based on downstream consequences of changes to care processes: judging whether the costs involved are offset by the magnitude of the consequences, and therefore whether the change represents value for money. Process mining techniques can inform such decisions by quantitatively discovering, comparing and detailing care processes using recorded data, however the scope of techniques typically excludes anything 'after-the-process' i.e., their accumulated costs and resulting consequences. Cost considerations are increasingly incorporated into process mining techniques, but the majority of healthcare costs for service and overhead components are commonly apportioned and recorded at the patient (trace) level, hiding event level detail. Within decision-analysis, event-driven and individual-level simulation models are sometimes used to forecast the expected downstream consequences of process changes, but are expensive to manually operationalise. In this paper, we address both of these gaps within and between process mining and decision analytics, by better linking them together. In particular, we introduce a new type of process model containing trace data that can be used in individual-level or cohort-level decision-analytical model building. Furthermore, we enhance these models with process-based micro-costing estimations. The approach was evaluated with health economics and decision modelling experts, with discussion centred on how the outputs could be used, and how similar information would otherwise be compiled.

Cost-effectiveness of population screening for atrial fibrillation: the STROKESTOP study

AIMS

Previous studies on the cost-effectiveness of screening for atrial fibrillation (AF) are based on assumptions of long-term clinical effects. The STROKESTOP study, which randomised 27 975 persons aged 75/76 years into a screening invitation group and a control group, has a median follow-up time of 6.9 years. The aim of this study was to estimate the cost-effectiveness of population-based screening for AF using clinical outcomes.

METHODS AND RESULTS

The analysis is based on a Markov cohort model. The prevalence of AF, the use of oral anticoagulation, clinical event data, and all-cause mortality were taken from the STROKESTOP study. The cost for clinical events, age-specific utilities, utility decrement due to stroke, and stroke death was taken from the literature. Uncertainty in the model was considered in a probabilistic sensitivity analysis. Per 1000 individuals invited to the screening, there were 77 gained life years and 65 gained quality-adjusted life years. The incremental cost was €1.77 million lower in the screening invitation group. Gained quality-adjusted life years to a lower cost means that the screening strategy was dominant. The result from 10 000 Monte Carlo simulations showed that the AF screening strategy was cost-effective in 99.2% and cost-saving in 92.7% of the simulations. In the base-case scenario, screening of 1000 individuals resulted in 10.6 [95% confidence interval (CI): -22.5 to 1.4] fewer strokes (8.4 ischaemic and 2.2 haemorrhagic strokes), 1.0 (95% CI: -1.9 to 4.1) more cases of systemic embolism, and 2.9 (95% CI: -18.2 to 13.1) fewer bleedings associated with hospitalization.

CONCLUSION

Based on the STROKESTOP study, this analysis shows that a broad AF screening strategy in an elderly population is cost-effective. Efforts should be made to increase screening participation.

Discrete Event Simulation Model for Cost-Effectiveness Evaluation of Screening for Asymptomatic Patients with Lower Extremity Arterial Disease

Lower limb ischemic disease (LEAD) affects a significant portion of the population, with most patients being asymptomatic. Patient screening is necessary because LEAD patients have an increased risk of occurrence of other cardiovascular events and manifestations of disease, in terms of leg symptoms such as intermittent claudication, critical limb ischemia, or amputation. The aim of this work was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of screening using ABI diagnostics in asymptomatic patients and its impact on limb symptoms associated with LEAD. A discrete event simulation model was created to capture lifetime costs and effects. Costs were calculated from the perspective of the health care payer, and the effects were calculated as QALYs. A cost-effectiveness analysis was performed to compare ABI screening examination and the situation without such screening. A probabilistic sensitivity analysis and scenario analysis were carried out to evaluate the robustness of the results. In the basic setting, the screening intervention was a more expensive intervention, at a cost of CZK 174,010, compared to CZK 70,177 for the strategy without screening. The benefits of screening were estimated at 14.73 QALYs, with 14.46 QALYs without screening. The final ICER value of CZK 389,738 per QALY is below the willingness to pay threshold. Likewise, the results of the probabilistic sensitivity analysis and of the scenario analysis were below the threshold of willingness to pay, thus confirming the robustness of the results. In conclusion, ABI screening appears to be a cost-effective strategy for asymptomatic patients aged 50 years when compared to the no-screening option.

Long-Term Cost-Effectiveness Comparison of Catheter Ablation and Antiarrhythmic Drugs in Atrial Fibrillation Treatment Using Discrete Event Simulation

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the lifetime cost-effectiveness of 3 widely used atrial fibrillation (AF) treatments from the perspectives of Chinese healthcare system: antiarrhythmic drugs (AADs), ThermoCool SmartTouch guided by ablation index (STAI), and second-generation cryoballoon (CB2).

METHODS

A discrete event simulation (DES) model was implemented to compare the lifetime cost-effectiveness of AADs, STAI, and CB2. AF disease progression was explicitly modeled based on the Atrial Fibrillation Progression Trial clinical study results. The base-case analysis assumed that patients with paroxysmal AF (PAF) entered the model at the age of 55 years and had a CHA2DS2-VASc (Congestive heart failure, Hypertension, Age ( > 65 = 1 point, > 75 = 2 points), Diabetes, previous Stroke/transient ischemic attack (2 points)-Vascular disease (peripheral arterial disease, previous myocardial infarction, aortic atheroma), Age 65 to 74 years, and Sex category) score of 2 for males and 3 for females. Model parameter uncertainties were incorporated throughout the DES simulation with full probabilistic model parameterization.

RESULTS

The lifetime cost-effectiveness evaluations showed that patients treated with AADs gained an average of 4.98 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and 9.63 life-years (LYs) at an average cost of US dollar (USD) 15 374. Patients treated with CB2 gained 5.92 QALYs and 10.74 LYs at an average cost of USD 26 811. The STAI group gained an average of 6.55 QALYs and 11.57 LYs at an average cost of USD 24 722. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios was USD 5927 and USD 12 167 per QALY for STAI versus AADs and CB2 versus AADs, respectively. Assuming the willingness-to-pay threshold for China is USD 30 390 per QALY, both ablation treatments will be cost-effective compared with AADs for patients with PAF.

CONCLUSIONS

The DES model demonstrated that catheter ablations are more cost-effective than AADs for patients with PAF under the healthcare system in China. Among catheter ablation technologies, STAI provides better outcomes at lower costs.

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Robotic-Assisted Radical Prostatectomy for Localized Prostate Cancer From the Brazilian Public System Perspective

OBJECTIVES

Radical prostatectomy (RP) is the gold standard for the surgical treatment of localized prostate cancer, presenting better results than radiotherapy especially for high-risk patients. Although it has clinical and technical benefits compared with open and laparoscopic techniques, the robotic-assisted RP is not publicly funded in Brazil. The objective of this study was to calculate the cost-effectiveness of the robotic-assisted RP from the Brazilian public system perspective.

METHODS

A state transition model was built to simulate the life of a patient undergoing RP. A total of 3 arms were compared: robotic-assisted, laparoscopic, and open surgeries. The assumed time horizon was 20 years; discounts were applied to both costs and health outcomes. Events and transition probabilities were obtained in the literature, and costs were obtained in official government databases. The results were reported as incremental cost-utility ratios.

RESULTS

Robotic-assisted surgery was found to be costlier but more effective than both open and laparoscopic techniques, resulting in Brazilian reals 4518 per quality-adjusted life-year and Brazilian reals 3631 per quality-adjusted life-year incremental cost-effectiveness ratios, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

This study gives relevant inputs for decision making regarding the inclusion of robotic-assisted RP in the Brazilian public formularies. The study demonstrates that the technology is cost-effective even when considering willingness-to-pay thresholds lower than the traditionally used ones.

Economic Evaluation of Transperineal versus Transrectal Devices for Local Anaesthetic Prostate Biopsies

BACKGROUND

Biopsy of the prostate for suspected cancer is usually performed transrectally under local anaesthesia in the outpatient clinic setting. As this involves piercing the bowel wall, the procedure is associated with a risk of infection. Recently, devices that facilitate transperineal biopsy approaches have been developed that avoid piercing the bowel and so should reduce the risk of infection.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to estimate the cost effectiveness of transperineal versus transrectal ultrasound-guided local anaesthesia procedures for prostate biopsy from the perspective of the UK NHS and to estimate the value of further research in the area.

METHODS

a) Decision tree and Markov model synthesising all relevant evidence estimating the life-time costs and QALYs accrued from each biopsy mode. b) Value of information analysis to predict the return from further research and thus guide future research efforts.

RESULTS

Transperineal biopsy yields an ICER below £20,000 per QALY gained at a per-procedure device acquisition cost below £81, or £41 for cost-neutrality. These results are driven by differences in consumables cost, reduced cost of treating infections, and QALY gains associated with reduced infections. There is value in future research on the diagnostic accuracy of transperineal versus transrectal biopsies and the incidence of iatrogenic infection and sepsis; consideration should be given to enriching the patient population with men with intermediate-risk disease.

CONCLUSIONS

Transperineal biopsy devices may be cost effective compared with transrectal biopsy at per-procedure acquisition costs below £81 and cost-neutral if under £41. Future research is required to confirm or refute these findings, particularly randomised comparisons of the diagnostic accuracy and infection risks between the methods.

The association of Coronavirus Disease-19 mortality and prior bacille Calmette-Guerin vaccination: a robust ecological analysis using unsupervised machine learning

Population-level data have suggested that bacille Calmette-Guerin (BCG) vaccination may lessen the severity of Coronavirus Disease-19 (COVID-19) prompting clinical trials in this area. Some reports have demonstrated conflicting results. We performed a robust, ecologic analysis comparing COVID-19 related mortality (CRM) between strictly selected countries based on BCG vaccination program status utilizing publicly available databases and machine learning methods to define the association between active BCG vaccination programs and CRM. Validation was performed using linear regression and country-specific modeling. CRM was lower for the majority of countries with a BCG vaccination policy for at least the preceding 15 years (BCG15). CRM increased significantly for each increase in the percent population over age 65. A higher total population of a country and BCG15 were significantly associated with improved CRM. There was a consistent association between countries with a BCG vaccination for the preceding 15 years, but not other vaccination programs, and CRM. BCG vaccination programs continued to be associated with decreased CRM even for populations < 40 years old where CRM events are less frequent.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of robotic-assisted versus retropubic radical prostatectomy: a single cancer center experience

Prostate cancer (PCa) treatment has been greatly impacted by the robotic surgery. The economics literature about PCa is scarce. We aim to carry-out cost-effectiveness and cost-utility analyses of the robotic-assisted radical prostatectomy (RALP) using the "time-driven activity-based cost" methodology. Patients who underwent radical prostatectomy in 2013 were retrospectively analyzed in a cancer center over a 5-year period. Fifty-six patients underwent RALP and 149 patients underwent retropubic radical prostatectomy (RRP). The amounts were subject to a 5% discount as correction of monetary value considering time elapsed. Calculation of the Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratios (ICER) related to events avoided and the Incremental Cost-Utility Ratio (ICUR) related to "QALY saved" were performed. QALY was performed using values of utility and "disutility" weights from the "Cost-Effectiveness Analysis Registry". Hypothetical cohorts were simulated with 1000 patients in each group, based on the treatment outcomes. Total and average costs were R$1,903,671.93, and R$12,776.32 for the RRP group, and R$1,373,987.26, and R$24,535.49 for the RALP group, respectively. The costs to treat the hypothetical cohorts were R$10,010,582.35 for RRP, and R$19,224,195.90 for RALP. ICER calculation evidenced R$9,213,613.55 of difference between groups. ICUR was R$ 22,690.83 per QALY saved. Limitations were the lack of cost-effectiveness analyses related to re-hospitalization rates and complications, single center perspective, and currency-translation differences. Medical fees were not included. RALP showed advantages in cost-effectiveness and cost-utility over RRP in the long term. Despite the increased costs to the introduction of robotic technology, its adoption should be encouraged due to the gains.

What are the cost-savings and health benefits of improving detection and management for six high cardiovascular risk conditions in England? An economic evaluation

OBJECTIVES

To estimate the cost savings and health benefits of improving detection of individuals at high risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in England, to determine to which patient subgroups these benefits arise, and to compare different strategies for subsequent management.

DESIGN

An economic analysis using the School for Public Health Research CVD Prevention Model.

SETTING

England 2018.

PARTICIPANTS

Adults aged 16 and older with one or more high cardiovascular risk conditions, including hypertension, diabetes, non-diabetic hyperglycaemia, atrial fibrillation, chronic kidney disease and high cholesterol.

INTERVENTIONS

Detection of 100% of individuals with CVD high risk conditions compared with current levels of detection in England. Detected individuals are assumed to be managed either according to current levels of care or National Institute of Health and Care Excellence (NICE) guidelines.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Incremental and cumulative costs, savings, quality adjusted life years (QALYs), CVD cases, and net monetary benefit, from a UK NHS and Personal Social Services perspective.

RESULTS

£68 billion could be saved, 4.9 million QALYs gained and 3.4 million cases of CVD prevented over 25 years if all individuals in England with the six CVD high risk conditions were diagnosed and subsequently managed at current levels. Additionally, if all detected individuals were managed according to NICE guidelines, total savings would be £61 billion, 8.1 million QALYs would be gained and 5.2 million CVD cases prevented. Most benefits come from detection of high cholesterol in the short term and diabetes in the long term.

CONCLUSIONS

Substantial cost savings and health benefits would accrue if all individuals with conditions that increase CVD risk could be diagnosed, with detection of undiagnosed diabetes producing greatest benefits. Ensuring all conditions are managed according to NICE guidelines would further increase health benefits. Projected cost-savings could be invested in developing acceptable and cost-effective solutions for improving detection and management.

The Diffusion of Discrete Event Simulation Approaches in Health Care Management in the Past Four Decades: A Comprehensive Review

This study systematically examines the diffusion of the discrete event simulation (DES) approach in health services and health care management by examining relevant factors such as research areas, channels with the objective of promoting the application of DES in the health field. We examined 483 journal papers referencing this approach that were published in 230 journals during 1981 to 2014. The application of DES has extended from health service operational research evaluation to the assessment of interventions in diverse health arenas. The increase in the number of adopters (paper authors) of DES and the increase in number of related channels (journals publishing DES-related articles) are highly correlated, which suggests an increase of DES-related publications in health research. The same conclusion is reached, that is, an increased diffusion of DES in health research, when we focus on the temporal trends of the channels and adopters. The applications of DES in health research cover 22 major areas based on our categorization. The expansion in the health areas also suggests to a certain extent the rapid diffusion of DES in health research.

Multiparametric MRI to improve detection of prostate cancer compared with transrectal ultrasound-guided prostate biopsy alone: the PROMIS study

BACKGROUND

Men with suspected prostate cancer usually undergo transrectal ultrasound (TRUS)-guided prostate biopsy. TRUS-guided biopsy can cause side effects and has relatively poor diagnostic accuracy. Multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging (mpMRI) used as a triage test might allow men to avoid unnecessary TRUS-guided biopsy and improve diagnostic accuracy.

OBJECTIVES

To (1) assess the ability of mpMRI to identify men who can safely avoid unnecessary biopsy, (2) assess the ability of the mpMRI-based pathway to improve the rate of detection of clinically significant (CS) cancer compared with TRUS-guided biopsy and (3) estimate the cost-effectiveness of a mpMRI-based diagnostic pathway.

DESIGN

A validating paired-cohort study and an economic evaluation using a decision-analytic model.

SETTING

Eleven NHS hospitals in England.

PARTICIPANTS

Men at risk of prostate cancer undergoing a first prostate biopsy.

INTERVENTIONS

Participants underwent three tests: (1) mpMRI (the index test), (2) TRUS-guided biopsy (the current standard) and (3) template prostate mapping (TPM) biopsy (the reference test).

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Diagnostic accuracy of mpMRI, TRUS-guided biopsy and TPM-biopsy measured by sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) using primary and secondary definitions of CS cancer. The percentage of negative magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans was used to identify men who might be able to avoid biopsy.

RESULTS

Diagnostic study - a total of 740 men were registered and 576 underwent all three tests. According to TPM-biopsy, the prevalence of any cancer was 71% [95% confidence interval (CI) 67% to 75%]. The prevalence of CS cancer according to the primary definition (a Gleason score of ≥ 4 + 3 and/or cancer core length of ≥ 6 mm) was 40% (95% CI 36% to 44%). For CS cancer, TRUS-guided biopsy showed a sensitivity of 48% (95% CI 42% to 55%), specificity of 96% (95% CI 94% to 98%), PPV of 90% (95% CI 83% to 94%) and NPV of 74% (95% CI 69% to 78%). The sensitivity of mpMRI was 93% (95% CI 88% to 96%), specificity was 41% (95% CI 36% to 46%), PPV was 51% (95% CI 46% to 56%) and NPV was 89% (95% CI 83% to 94%). A negative mpMRI scan was recorded for 158 men (27%). Of these, 17 were found to have CS cancer on TPM-biopsy. Economic evaluation - the most cost-effective strategy involved testing all men with mpMRI, followed by MRI-guided TRUS-guided biopsy in those patients with suspected CS cancer, followed by rebiopsy if CS cancer was not detected. This strategy is cost-effective at the TRUS-guided biopsy definition 2 (any Gleason pattern of ≥ 4 and/or cancer core length of ≥ 4 mm), mpMRI definition 2 (lesion volume of ≥ 0.2 ml and/or Gleason score of ≥ 3 + 4) and cut-off point 2 (likely to be benign) and detects 95% (95% CI 92% to 98%) of CS cancers. The main drivers of cost-effectiveness were the unit costs of tests, the improvement in sensitivity of MRI-guided TRUS-guided biopsy compared with blind TRUS-guided biopsy and the longer-term costs and outcomes of men with cancer.

LIMITATIONS

The PROstate Magnetic resonance Imaging Study (PROMIS) was carried out in a selected group and excluded men with a prostate volume of > 100 ml, who are less likely to have cancer. The limitations in the economic modelling arise from the limited evidence on the long-term outcomes of men with prostate cancer and on the sensitivity of MRI-targeted repeat biopsy.

CONCLUSIONS

Incorporating mpMRI into the diagnostic pathway as an initial test prior to prostate biopsy may (1) reduce the proportion of men having unnecessary biopsies, (2) improve the detection of CS prostate cancer and (3) increase the cost-effectiveness of the prostate cancer diagnostic and therapeutic pathway. The PROMIS data set will be used for future research; this is likely to include modelling prognostic factors for CS cancer, optimising MRI scan sequencing and biomarker or translational research analyses using the blood and urine samples collected. Better-quality evidence on long-term outcomes in prostate cancer under the various management strategies is required to better assess cost-effectiveness. The value-of-information analysis should be developed further to assess new research to commission.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN16082556 and NCT01292291.

FUNDING

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 22, No. 39. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information. This project was also supported and partially funded by the NIHR Biomedical Research Centre at University College London (UCL) Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust and UCL and by The Royal Marsden NHS Foundation Trust and The Institute of Cancer Research Biomedical Research Centre and was co-ordinated by the Medical Research Council's Clinical Trials Unit at UCL (grant code MC_UU_12023/28). It was sponsored by UCL. Funding for the additional collection of blood and urine samples for translational research was provided by Prostate Cancer UK.

Irreversible electroporation of malignant liver tumors: Effect on laboratory values

Liver cancer is often associated with chronic liver diseases. Treatment with percutaneous irreversible electroporation (IRE) may preserve liver function. In the present study, the clinical data of 29 patients with liver tumors between July 2015 and December 2016, all of whom underwent liver IRE at Fuda Cancer Hospital, Guangzhou, China was retrospectively reviewed. All the patients survived the treatment. Of the 29 patients, 7 were positive for hepatitis B, 15 had hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and 7 had pancreatic cancer with liver metastases. All patients survived IRE. Despite liver-protective treatment prior to IRE, the mean alanine transaminase (ALT) and aspartate transaminase (AST) levels were significantly elevated 1-2 days after IRE, to 540 and 712 U/l, respectively; however they had returned to the preoperative values by 2 weeks following IRE. Prior to IRE, the mean total bilirubin and direct bilirubin measurement levels were normal; however, 8-10 days after IRE, they had increased to 24 U/l and 12 µmol/l, respectively, and had returned back to the preoperative levels by 2 weeks after IRE. This first group included all patients. The result of the 4 subgroups of cancer patients demonstrated a variation between different measurement days and recovery with patients positive for the hepatitis B virus taking the longest duration to recover (17±3 days) meanwhile patients with pancreatic cancer with liver metastases took the shortest time to achieve recovery (10.78±2 days). The findings of the present study indicate that hepatic injury caused by IRE is transient and self-limiting in patients with liver tumors.

Machine learning methods for locating re-entrant drivers from electrograms in a model of atrial fibrillation

Mapping resolution has recently been identified as a key limitation in successfully locating the drivers of atrial fibrillation (AF). Using a simple cellular automata model of AF, we demonstrate a method by which re-entrant drivers can be located quickly and accurately using a collection of indirect electrogram measurements. The method proposed employs simple, out-of-the-box machine learning algorithms to correlate characteristic electrogram gradients with the displacement of an electrogram recording from a re-entrant driver. Such a method is less sensitive to local fluctuations in electrical activity. As a result, the method successfully locates 95.4% of drivers in tissues containing a single driver, and 95.1% (92.6%) for the first (second) driver in tissues containing two drivers of AF. Additionally, we demonstrate how the technique can be applied to tissues with an arbitrary number of drivers. In its current form, the techniques presented are not refined enough for a clinical setting. However, the methods proposed offer a promising path for future investigations aimed at improving targeted ablation for AF.

Catheter Ablation versus Thoracoscopic Surgical Ablation in Long Standing Persistent Atrial Fibrillation (CASA-AF): study protocol for a randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Atrial fibrillation is the commonest arrhythmia which raises the risk of heart failure, thromboembolic stroke, morbidity and death. Pharmacological treatments of this condition are focused on heart rate control, rhythm control and reduction in risk of stroke. Selective ablation of cardiac tissues resulting in isolation of areas causing atrial fibrillation is another treatment strategy which can be delivered by two minimally invasive interventions: percutaneous catheter ablation and thoracoscopic surgical ablation. The main purpose of this trial is to compare the effectiveness and safety of these two interventions.

METHODS/DESIGN

Catheter Ablation versus Thoracoscopic Surgical Ablation in Long Standing Persistent Atrial Fibrillation (CASA-AF) is a prospective, multi-centre, randomised controlled trial within three NHS tertiary cardiovascular centres specialising in treatment of atrial fibrillation. Eligible adults (n = 120) with symptomatic, long-standing, persistent atrial fibrillation will be randomly allocated to either catheter ablation or thoracoscopic ablation in a 1:1 ratio. Pre-determined lesion sets will be delivered in each treatment arm with confirmation of appropriate conduction block. All patients will have an implantable loop recorder (ILR) inserted subcutaneously immediately following ablation to enable continuous heart rhythm monitoring for at least 12 months. The devices will be programmed to detect episodes of atrial fibrillation and atrial tachycardia ≥ 30 s in duration. The patients will be followed for 12 months, completing appropriate clinical assessments and questionnaires every 3 months. The ILR data will be wirelessly transmitted daily and evaluated every month for the duration of the follow-up. The primary endpoint in the study is freedom from atrial fibrillation and atrial tachycardia at the end of the follow-up period.

DISCUSSION

The CASA-AF Trial is a National Institute for Health Research-funded study that will provide first-class evidence on the comparative efficacy, safety and cost-effectiveness of thoracoscopic surgical ablation and conventional percutaneous catheter ablation for long-standing persistent atrial fibrillation. In addition, the results of the trial will provide information on the effects on patients' quality of life.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ISRCTN Registry, ISRCTN18250790 . Registered on 24 April 2015.

A multicentre randomised controlled trial of Transfusion Indication Threshold Reduction on transfusion rates, morbidity and health-care resource use following cardiac surgery (TITRe2)

BACKGROUND

Uncertainty about optimal red blood cell transfusion thresholds in cardiac surgery is reflected in widely varying transfusion rates between surgeons and cardiac centres.

OBJECTIVE

To test the hypothesis that a restrictive compared with a liberal threshold for red blood cell transfusion after cardiac surgery reduces post-operative morbidity and health-care costs.

DESIGN

Multicentre, parallel randomised controlled trial and within-trial cost-utility analysis from a UK NHS and Personal Social Services perspective. We could not blind health-care staff but tried to blind participants. Random allocations were generated by computer and minimised by centre and operation.

SETTING

Seventeen specialist cardiac surgery centres in UK NHS hospitals.

PARTICIPANTS

Patients aged > 16 years undergoing non-emergency cardiac surgery with post-operative haemoglobin < 9 g/dl. Exclusion criteria were: unwilling to have transfusion owing to beliefs; platelet, red blood cell or clotting disorder; ongoing or recurrent sepsis; and critical limb ischaemia.

INTERVENTIONS

Participants in the liberal group were eligible for transfusion immediately after randomisation (post-operative haemoglobin < 9 g/dl); participants in the restrictive group were eligible for transfusion if their post-operative haemoglobin fell to < 7.5 g/dl during the index hospital stay.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The primary outcome was a composite outcome of any serious infectious (sepsis or wound infection) or ischaemic event (permanent stroke, myocardial infarction, gut infarction or acute kidney injury) during the 3 months after randomisation. Events were verified or adjudicated by blinded personnel. Secondary outcomes included blood products transfused; infectious events; ischaemic events; quality of life (European Quality of Life-5 Dimensions); duration of intensive care or high-dependency unit stay; duration of hospital stay; significant pulmonary morbidity; all-cause mortality; resource use, costs and cost-effectiveness.

RESULTS

We randomised 2007 participants between 15 July 2009 and 18 February 2013; four withdrew, leaving 1000 and 1003 in the restrictive and liberal groups, respectively. Transfusion rates after randomisation were 53.4% (534/1000) and 92.2% (925/1003). The primary outcome occurred in 35.1% (331/944) and 33.0% (317/962) of participants in the restrictive and liberal groups [odds ratio (OR) 1.11, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.91 to 1.34; p = 0.30], respectively. There were no subgroup effects for the primary outcome, although some sensitivity analyses substantially altered the estimated OR. There were no differences for secondary clinical outcomes except for mortality, with more deaths in the restrictive group (4.2%, 42/1000 vs. 2.6%, 26/1003; hazard ratio 1.64, 95% CI 1.00 to 2.67; p = 0.045). Serious post-operative complications excluding primary outcome events occurred in 35.7% (354/991) and 34.2% (339/991) of participants in the restrictive and liberal groups, respectively. The total cost per participant from surgery to 3 months postoperatively differed little by group, just £182 less (standard error £488) in the restrictive group, largely owing to the difference in red blood cells cost. In the base-case cost-effectiveness results, the point estimate suggested that the restrictive threshold was cost-effective; however, this result was very uncertain partly owing to the negligible difference in quality-adjusted life-years gained.

CONCLUSIONS

A restrictive transfusion threshold is not superior to a liberal threshold after cardiac surgery. This finding supports restrictive transfusion due to reduced consumption and costs of red blood cells. However, secondary findings create uncertainty about recommending restrictive transfusion and prompt a new hypothesis that liberal transfusion may be superior after cardiac surgery. Reanalyses of existing trial datasets, excluding all participants who did not breach the liberal threshold, followed by a meta-analysis of the reanalysed results are the most obvious research steps to address the new hypothesis about the possible harm of red blood cell transfusion.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN70923932.

FUNDING

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 20, No. 60. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

A systematic decision-making process on the need for updating clinical practice guidelines proved to be feasible in a pilot study

OBJECTIVES

The objective of this study was to test and evaluate a new decision-making process on the need for updating within the update of a German clinical practice guideline (CPG).

STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING

The pilot study comprised (1) limited searches in Pubmed to identify new potentially relevant evidence, (2) an online survey among the members of the CPG group to assess the need for update, and (3) a consensus conference for determination and prioritization of guideline sections with a high need for update. Subsequently, we conducted a second online survey to evaluate the procedure.

RESULTS

The searches resulted in 902 abstracts that were graded as new potentially relevant evidence. Twenty five of 39 members of the CPG group (64%) participated in the online survey. Seventy six percent of those took part in the second online survey. The evaluation study found on average a grade of support of the procedure regarding the determination of the need for update of 3.65 (standard deviation: 0.76) on a likert scale with 1 = "no support" to 5 = "very strong support."

CONCLUSION

The conducted procedure presents a systematic approach for assessing whether and to what extent a CPG requires updating and enables setting priorities for which particular guideline section to update within a CPG.

Mechanisms of stochastic onset and termination of atrial fibrillation studied with a cellular automaton model

Mathematical models of cardiac electrical excitation are increasingly complex, with multiscale models seeking to represent and bridge physiological behaviours across temporal and spatial scales. The increasing complexity of these models makes it computationally expensive to both evaluate long term (more than 60 s) behaviour and determine sensitivity of model outputs to inputs. This is particularly relevant in models of atrial fibrillation (AF), where individual episodes last from seconds to days, and interepisode waiting times can be minutes to months. Potential mechanisms of transition between sinus rhythm and AF have been identified but are not well understood, and it is difficult to simulate AF for long periods of time using state-of-the-art models. In this study, we implemented a Moe-type cellular automaton on a novel, topologically equivalent surface geometry of the left atrium. We used the model to simulate stochastic initiation and spontaneous termination of AF, arising from bursts of spontaneous activation near pulmonary veins. The simplified representation of atrial electrical activity reduced computational cost, and so permitted us to investigate AF mechanisms in a probabilistic setting. We computed large numbers (approx. 10⁵) of sample paths of the model, to infer stochastic initiation and termination rates of AF episodes using different model parameters. By generating statistical distributions of model outputs, we demonstrated how to propagate uncertainties of inputs within our microscopic level model up to a macroscopic level. Lastly, we investigated spontaneous termination in the model and found a complex dependence on its past AF trajectory, the mechanism of which merits future investigation.

Development of a prioritisation tool for the updating of clinical guideline questions: the UpPriority Tool protocol

INTRODUCTION

Due to a continuous emergence of new evidence, clinical guidelines (CGs) require regular surveillance of evidence to maintain their trustworthiness. The updating of CGs is resource intensive and time consuming; therefore, updating may include a prioritisation process to efficiently ensure recommendations remain up to date. The objective of our project is to develop a pragmatic tool to prioritise clinical questions for updating within a CG.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

To develop the tool, we will use the results and conclusions of a systematic review of methodological research on prioritisation processes for updating and will adopt a methodological approach we have successfully implemented in a previous experience.We will perform a multistep process including (1) generation of an initial version of the tool, (2) optimisation of the tool (feasibility test of the tool, semistructured interviews, Delphi consensus survey, external review by CG methodologists and users and pilot test of the tool) and (3) approval of the final version of the tool.At each step of the process, we will (1) calculate absolute frequencies and proportions (quantitative data), (2) use content analysis to summarise and draw conclusions (qualitative data) and (3) draft a final report, discuss results and refine the previous versions of the tool. Finally, we will calculate intraclass coefficients with 95% CIs for each item and overall as indicators of agreement among reviewers.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

We have obtained a waiver of approval from the Clinical Research Ethics Committee at the Hospital de la Santa Creu i Sant Pau (Barcelona). The results of the study will be published in peer-reviewed journal and communicated to interested stakeholders.The tool could support the standardisation of prioritisation processes for updating CGs and therefore have important implications for a more efficient use of resources in the CG field.

AMERICAN ASSOCIATION OF CLINICAL ENDOCRINOLOGISTS AND AMERICAN COLLEGE OF ENDOCRINOLOGY PROTOCOL FOR STANDARDIZED PRODUCTION OF CLINICAL PRACTICE GUIDELINES, ALGORITHMS, AND CHECKLISTS - 2017 UPDATE

Clinical practice guideline (CPG), clinical practice algorithm (CPA), and clinical checklist (CC, collectively CPGAC) development is a high priority of the American Association of Clinical Endocrinologists (AACE) and American College of Endocrinology (ACE). This 2017 update in CPG development consists of (1) a paradigm change wherein first, environmental scans identify important clinical issues and needs, second, CPA construction focuses on these clinical issues and needs, and third, CPG provide CPA node/edge-specific scientific substantiation and appended CC; (2) inclusion of new technical semantic and numerical descriptors for evidence types, subjective factors, and qualifiers; and (3) incorporation of patient-centered care components such as economics and transcultural adaptations, as well as implementation, validation, and evaluation strategies. This third point highlights the dominating factors of personal finances, governmental influences, and third-party payer dictates on CPGAC implementation, which ultimately impact CPGAC development. The AACE/ACE guidelines for the CPGAC program is a successful and ongoing iterative exercise to optimize endocrine care in a changing and challenging healthcare environment.

ABBREVIATIONS

AACE = American Association of Clinical Endocrinologists ACC = American College of Cardiology ACE = American College of Endocrinology ASeRT = ACE Scientific Referencing Team BEL = best evidence level CC = clinical checklist CPA = clinical practice algorithm CPG = clinical practice guideline CPGAC = clinical practice guideline, algorithm, and checklist EBM = evidence-based medicine EHR = electronic health record EL = evidence level G4GAC = Guidelines for Guidelines, Algorithms, and Checklists GAC = guidelines, algorithms, and checklists HCP = healthcare professional(s) POEMS = patient-oriented evidence that matters PRCT = prospective randomized controlled trial.

Methodological systematic review identifies major limitations in prioritization processes for updating

OBJECTIVES

The aim of the study was to identify and describe strategies to prioritize the updating of systematic reviews (SRs), health technology assessments (HTAs), or clinical guidelines (CGs).

STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING

We conducted an SR of studies describing one or more methods to prioritize SRs, HTAs, or CGs for updating. We searched MEDLINE (PubMed, from 1966 to August 2016) and The Cochrane Methodology Register (The Cochrane Library, Issue 8 2016). We hand searched abstract books, reviewed reference lists, and contacted experts. Two reviewers independently screened the references and extracted data.

RESULTS

We included 14 studies. Six studies were classified as descriptive (6 of 14, 42.9%) and eight as implementation studies (8 of 14, 57.1%). Six studies reported an updating strategy (6 of 14, 42.9%), six a prioritization process (6 of 14, 42.9%), and two a prioritization criterion (2 of 14, 14.2%). Eight studies focused on SRs (8 of 14, 57.1%), six studies focused on CGs (6 of 14, 42.9%), and none were about HTAs. We identified 76 prioritization criteria that can be applied when prioritizing documents for updating. The most frequently cited criteria were as follows: available evidence (19 of 76, 25.0%), clinical relevance (10 of 76; 13.2%), and users' interest (10 of 76; 13.2%).

CONCLUSION

There is wide variability and suboptimal reporting of the methods used to develop and implement processes to prioritize updating of SRs, HTAs, and CGs.

Screening strategies for atrial fibrillation: a systematic review and cost-effectiveness analysis

Background

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a common cardiac arrhythmia that increases the risk of thromboembolic events. Anticoagulation therapy to prevent AF-related stroke has been shown to be cost-effective. A national screening programme for AF may prevent AF-related events, but would involve a substantial investment of NHS resources.

Objectives

To conduct a systematic review of the diagnostic test accuracy (DTA) of screening tests for AF, update a systematic review of comparative studies evaluating screening strategies for AF, develop an economic model to compare the cost-effectiveness of different screening strategies and review observational studies of AF screening to provide inputs to the model.

Design

Systematic review, meta-analysis and cost-effectiveness analysis.

Setting

Primary care.

Participants

Adults.

Intervention

Screening strategies, defined by screening test, age at initial and final screens, screening interval and format of screening {systematic opportunistic screening [individuals offered screening if they consult with their general practitioner (GP)] or systematic population screening (when all eligible individuals are invited to screening)}.

Main outcome measures

Sensitivity, specificity and diagnostic odds ratios; the odds ratio of detecting new AF cases compared with no screening; and the mean incremental net benefit compared with no screening.

Review methods

Two reviewers screened the search results, extracted data and assessed the risk of bias. A DTA meta-analysis was perfomed, and a decision tree and Markov model was used to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the screening strategies.

Results

Diagnostic test accuracy depended on the screening test and how it was interpreted. In general, the screening tests identified in our review had high sensitivity (> 0.9). Systematic population and systematic opportunistic screening strategies were found to be similarly effective, with an estimated 170 individuals needed to be screened to detect one additional AF case compared with no screening. Systematic opportunistic screening was more likely to be cost-effective than systematic population screening, as long as the uptake of opportunistic screening observed in randomised controlled trials translates to practice. Modified blood pressure monitors, photoplethysmography or nurse pulse palpation were more likely to be cost-effective than other screening tests. A screening strategy with an initial screening age of 65 years and repeated screens every 5 years until age 80 years was likely to be cost-effective, provided that compliance with treatment does not decline with increasing age.

Conclusions

A national screening programme for AF is likely to represent a cost-effective use of resources. Systematic opportunistic screening is more likely to be cost-effective than systematic population screening. Nurse pulse palpation or modified blood pressure monitors would be appropriate screening tests, with confirmation by diagnostic 12-lead electrocardiography interpreted by a trained GP, with referral to a specialist in the case of an unclear diagnosis. Implementation strategies to operationalise uptake of systematic opportunistic screening in primary care should accompany any screening recommendations.

Limitations

Many inputs for the economic model relied on a single trial [the Screening for Atrial Fibrillation in the Elderly (SAFE) study] and DTA results were based on a few studies at high risk of bias/of low applicability.

Future work

Comparative studies measuring long-term outcomes of screening strategies and DTA studies for new, emerging technologies and to replicate the results for photoplethysmography and GP interpretation of 12-lead electrocardiography in a screening population.

Study registration

This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42014013739.

Funding

The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Better guidelines for better care: accounting for multimorbidity in clinical guidelines – structured examination of exemplar guidelines and health economic modelling

Background

Multimorbidity is common but most clinical guidelines focus on single diseases.

Aim

To test the feasibility of new approaches to developing single-disease guidelines to better account for multimorbidity.

Design

Literature-based and economic modelling project focused on areas where multimorbidity makes guideline application problematic.

Methods

(1) Examination of accounting for multimorbidity in three exemplar National Institute for Health and Care Excellence guidelines (type 2 diabetes, depression, heart failure); (2) examination of the applicability of evidence in multimorbidity for the exemplar conditions; (3) exploration of methods for comparing absolute benefit of treatment; (4) incorporation of treatment pay-off time and competing risk of death in an exemplar economic model for long-term preventative treatments with slowly accruing benefit; and (5) development of a discrete event simulation model-based cost-effectiveness analysis for people with both depression and coronary heart disease.

Results

(1) Comorbidity was rarely accounted for in the clinical research questions that framed the development of the exemplar guidelines, and was rarely accounted for in treatment recommendations. Drug–disease interactions were common only for comorbid chronic kidney disease, but potentially serious drug–drug interactions between recommended drugs were common and rarely accounted for in guidelines. (2) For all three conditions, the trials underpinning treatment recommendations largely excluded older, more comorbid and more coprescribed patients. The implications of low applicability varied by condition, with type 2 diabetes having large differences in comorbidity, whereas potentially serious drug–drug interactions were more important for depression. (3) Comparing absolute benefit of treatments for different conditions was shown to be technically feasible, but only if guideline developers are willing to make a number of significant assumptions. (4) The lifetime absolute benefit of statins for primary prevention is highly sensitive to the presence of both the direct treatment disutility of taking a daily tablet and competing risk of death. (5) It was feasible to use a discrete event simulation-based model to represent the relevant care pathways to estimate the relative cost-effectiveness of pharmacological treatments of major depressive disorder in primary care for patients who are also likely to go on and receive treatment for coronary heart disease but the analysis was reliant on eliciting some parameter values from experts, which increases the inherent uncertainty in the results. The key limitation was that real-life use in guideline development was not examined.

Conclusions

Guideline developers could feasibly (1) use epidemiological data characterising the guideline population to inform consideration of applicability and interactions; (2) systematically compare the absolute benefit of long-term preventative treatments to inform decision-making in people with multimorbidity and high treatment burden; and (3) modify the output from economic models used in guideline development to examine time to benefit in terms of the pay-off time and varying competing risk of death from other conditions.

Future work

Further research is needed to optimise presentation of comparative absolute benefit information to clinicians and patients, to evaluate the use of epidemiological and time-to-benefit data in guideline development, to better quantify direct treatment disutility and to better quantify benefit and harm in people with multimorbidity.

Funding

The National Institute for Health Research Health Services and Delivery Research programme.

CHANGING HEALTH TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT PARADIGMS?

Objectives: Health technology assessment (HTA) has to innovate to best support changing health system environments and to help provide access to valuable innovation under fiscal constraint.

Methods: Issues associated with changing HTA paradigms were identified through scoping and explored through deliberation at a meeting of industry and HTA leaders.

Results: Five broad areas of change (engagement, scientific dialogue, research prioritization, adaptive approaches, and real world data) were identified. The meeting focused on two themes derived from these: re-thinking scientific dialogue and multi-stakeholder engagement, and re-thinking value, affordability, and access. Earlier and ongoing engagement to steer the innovation process and help achieve appropriate use across the technology lifecycle was perceived as important but would be resource intensive and would require priority setting. Patients need to be involved throughout, and particularly at the early stages. Further discussion is needed on the type of body best suited to convening the dialogue required. There was agreement that HTA must continue to assess value, but views differed on the role that HTA should play in assessing affordability and on appropriate responses to challenges around affordability. Enhanced horizon scanning could play an important role in preparing for significant future investments.

Conclusions: Early and ongoing multi-stakeholder engagement and revisiting approaches to valuing innovation are required. Questions remain as to the most appropriate role for HTA bodies. Changing HTA paradigms extend HTA's traditional remit of being responsive to decision-makers demands to being more proactive and considering whole system value.

Economic evaluation of treatments for patients with localized prostate cancer in Europe: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Our objective was to assess the efficiency of treatments in patients with localized prostate cancer, by synthesizing available evidence from European economic evaluations through systematic review.

METHODS

Articles published 2000-2015 were searched in MEDLINE, EMBASE and NHS EED (Prospero protocol CRD42015022063). Two authors independently selected studies for inclusion and extracted the data. A third reviewer resolved discrepancies. We included European economic evaluations or cost comparison studies, of any modality of surgery or radiotherapy treatments, regardless the comparator/s. Drummond's Checklist was used for quality assessment.

RESULTS

After reviewing 8,789 titles, 13 European eligible studies were included: eight cost-utility, two cost-effectiveness, one cost-minimization, and two cost-comparison analyses. Of them, five compared interventions with expectant management, four contrasted robotic with non robotic-assisted surgery, three assessed new modalities of radiotherapy, and three compared radical prostatectomy with brachytherapy. All but two studies scored ≥8 in the quality checklist. Considering scenario and comparator, three interventions were qualified as dominant strategies (active surveillance, robotic-assisted surgery and IMRT), and six were cost-effective (radical prostatectomy, robotic-assisted surgery, IMRT, proton therapy, brachytherapy, and 3DCRT). However, QALY gains in most of them were small. For interventions considered as dominant strategies, QALY gain was 0.013 for active surveillance over radical prostatectomy; and 0.007 for robotic-assisted over non-robotic techniques. The highest QALY gains were 0.57-0.86 for radical prostatectomy vs watchful waiting, and 0.72 for brachytherapy vs conventional radiotherapy.

CONCLUSIONS

Currently, relevant treatment alternatives for localized prostate cancer are scarcely evaluated in Europe. Very limited available evidence supports the cost-effectiveness of radical prostatectomy over watchful waiting, brachytherapy over radical prostatectomy, and new treatment modalities over traditional procedures. Relevant disparities were detected among studies, mainly based on effectiveness. These apparently contradictory results may be reflecting the difficulty of interpreting small differences between treatments regarding QALY gains.

Why Do Health Economists Promote Technology Adoption Rather Than the Search for Efficiency? A Proposal for a Change in Our Approach to Economic Evaluation in Health Care

At a time of intense pressure on health care budgets, the technology management challenge is for disinvestment in low-value technologies and reinvestment in higher value alternatives. The aim of this article is to explore ways in which health economists might begin to redress the observed imbalance between the evaluation of new and existing in-use technologies. The argument is not against evaluating new technologies but in favor of the “search for efficiency,” where the ultimate objective is to identify reallocations that improve population health in the face of resource scarcity. We explore why in-use technologies may be of low value and consider how economic evaluation analysts might embrace a broader efficiency lens, first through “technology management” (a process of analysis and evidence-informed decision making throughout a technology’s life cycle) and progressing through “pathway management” (the search for efficiency gains across entire clinical care pathways). A number of model-based examples are used to illustrate the approaches.

The Melanoma MAICare Framework: A Microsimulation Model for the Assessment of Individualized Cancer Care

Recently, new but expensive treatments have become available for metastatic melanoma. These improve survival, but in view of the limited funds available, cost-effectiveness needs to be evaluated. Most cancer cost-effectiveness models are based on the observed clinical events such as recurrence- free and overall survival. Times at which events are recorded depend not only on the effectiveness of treatment but also on the timing of examinations and the types of tests performed. Our objective was to construct a microsimulation model framework that describes the melanoma disease process using a description of underlying tumor growth as well as its interaction with diagnostics, treatments, and surveillance. The framework should allow for exploration of the impact of simultaneously altering curative treatment approaches in different phases of the disease as well as altering diagnostics. The developed framework consists of two components, namely, the disease model and the clinical management module. The disease model consists of a tumor level, describing growth and metastasis of the tumor, and a patient level, describing clinically observed states, such as recurrence and death. The clinical management module consists of the care patients receive. This module interacts with the disease process, influencing the rate of transition between tumor growth states at the tumor level and the rate of detecting a recurrence at the patient level. We describe the framework as the required input and the model output. Furthermore, we illustrate model calibration using registry data and data from the literature.

A Stochastic Individual-Based Model of the Progression of Atrial Fibrillation in Individuals and Populations

Models that represent the mechanisms that initiate and sustain atrial fibrillation (AF) in the heart are computationally expensive to simulate and therefore only capture short time scales of a few heart beats. It is therefore difficult to embed biophysical mechanisms into both policy-level disease models, which consider populations of patients over multiple decades, and guidelines that recommend treatment strategies for patients. The aim of this study is to link these modelling paradigms using a stylised population-level model that both represents AF progression over a long time-scale and retains a description of biophysical mechanisms. We develop a non-Markovian binary switching model incorporating three different aspects of AF progression: genetic disposition, disease/age related remodelling, and AF-related remodelling. This approach allows us to simulate individual AF episodes as well as the natural progression of AF in patients over a period of decades. Model parameters are derived, where possible, from the literature, and the model development has highlighted a need for quantitative data that describe the progression of AF in population of patients. The model produces time series data of AF episodes over the lifetimes of simulated patients. These are analysed to quantitatively describe progression of AF in terms of several underlying parameters. Overall, the model has potential to link mechanisms of AF to progression, and to be used as a tool to study clinical markers of AF or as training data for AF classification algorithms.