Changes in cancer incidence and mortality in England and Wales and a comparison of cancer deaths in the major developed countries by age and sex 1979-2002 in context of GDP expenditure on health

Cancer survival analysis and spatial distribution during 2014-2016 in Shandong Province, China

We aimed to analyse cancer survival and its spatial distribution in Shandong Province. A total of 609,861 cancer cases from 2014 to 2016 were included in the analysis. Survival analysis was performed using strs in Stata. Spatial analysis was performed with GeoDa to determine measures of global and local spatial autocorrelation. Hotspot analysis was used to identify spatial clusters of high values (hotspots) and low values (cold spots) through ArcGIS. The 5-year relative survival rates were 37.85% for all cancers combined, 29.29% for males and 48.88% for females. After age standardisation, the survival rates were 34.47% for all cancers, 28.43% for males and 41.56% for females. Cancers with higher survival rates included thyroid (78.80%), breast (69.52%), uterus (64.51%) and bladder (62.54%) cancers. However, cancers with lower survival rates included pancreatic (11.34%), liver (13.19%), lung (18.39%), bone (19.71%), gallbladder (19.78%), oesophagus (24.52%), and stomach (28.85%) cancers and leukaemia (26.30%). Cancer survival rates in urban areas (37.53%) were higher than those in rural areas (32.83%). From the geographic distribution of cancer survival, we observed that the survival rate displayed a downward trend from east to west and from north to south. The hotspot analysis revealed that some counties of Qingdao, Jinan, Zibo, Dongying and Yantai cities were hotspots, whereas almost all counties of Linyi city and some counties of Weifang, Heze, Rizhao, and Dezhou cities were cold spots. In conclusion, the cancer survival rate in Shandong is still lower than that in China overall. The early diagnosis and treatment of lung and digestive tract cancers need to be further strengthened. Nevertheless, our results reflect a critical first step in obtaining and reporting accurate and reliable estimates of survival in Shandong.

Area socioeconomic status is independently associated with esophageal cancer mortality in Shandong, China

Esophageal cancer (EC) is a leading cause of cancer death in China. Within Shandong Province, a geographic cluster with high EC mortality has been identified, however little is known about how area-level socioeconomic status (SES) is associated with EC mortality in this province. Multilevel models were applied to EC mortality data in 2011–13 among Shandong residents aged 40+ years. Area-level SES factors consisted of residential type (urban/rural) of the sub-county-level units (n = 262) and SES index (range: 0–10) of the county-level units (n = 142). After adjustment for age and sex, residents living in rural areas had a 22% (95% CI: 13–32%) higher risk of dying from EC than those in urban areas. With each unit increase in the SES index, the average risk of dying from EC reduced by 10% (95% CI: 3–18%). The adjustment of area-level SES variables had little impact on the risk ratio of EC mortality between the high-mortality cluster and the rest of Shandong. In conclusion, rural residence and lower SES index are strongly associated with elevated risks of EC death. However, these factors are independent of the high mortality in the cluster area of Shandong. The underlying causes for this geographic disparity need to be further investigated.

Comparison of cancer incidence and mortality in three GDP per capita levels in China, 2013

Objective

In this research, the patterns of cancer incidence and mortality in areas with different gross domestic product per capita (GDPPC) levels in China were explored, using data from population-based cancer registries in 2013, collected by the National Central Cancer Registry (NCCR).

Methods

Data from 255 cancer registries were qualified and included in this analysis. Based on the GDPPC data of 2014, cities/counties were divided into 3 levels: high-, middle- and low-GDPPC areas, with 40,000 and 80,000 RMB per year as cut points. We calculated cancer incidences and mortalities in these three levels, stratified by gender and age group. The national population of the Fifth Census in 2000 and Segi's population were applied for age-standardized rates.

Results

The crude incidence and mortality rates as well as age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) showed positive associations with GDPPC level. The age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) nevertheless showed a negative association with GDPPC level. The ASMR in high-, middle- and low-GDPPC areas was 103.12/100,000, 112.49/100,000 and 117.43/100,000, respectively. Lung cancer was by far the most common cancer in all three GDPPC levels. It was also the leading cause of cancer death, regardless of gender and GDPPC level. Negative associations with GDPPC level were found for the ASIRs of lung, stomach, esophageal and liver cancer, whereas colorectal and breast cancer showed positive associations. Except for breast cancer, the ASMRs of the other five cancers were always higher in middle- and low-GDPPC areas than in high-GDPPC areas.

Conclusions

The economic development is one of the main factors of the heavy cancer burden on Chinese population. It would be reasonable to implement cancer control strategies referring to the local GDPPC level.

Pertuzumab in combination with trastuzumab and docetaxel for the treatment of HER2-positive metastatic or locally recurrent unresectable breast cancer

The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) invited the manufacturer of pertuzumab (Roche) to submit evidence for the clinical and cost effectiveness of pertuzumab + trastuzumab + docetaxel for the treatment of human epidermal growth factor receptor 2-positive (HER2+) metastatic or locally recurrent unresectable breast cancer in accordance with the Institute's Single Technology Appraisal (STA) process. The Liverpool Reviews and Implementation Group (LRiG) at the University of Liverpool was commissioned to act as the Evidence Review Group (ERG). This article summarises the ERG's review of the evidence submitted by the manufacturer and provides a summary of the Appraisal Committee's (AC) initial decision. At the time of writing, final guidance had not been published by NICE. The clinical evidence was mainly derived from an ongoing phase III randomised double-blind placebo-controlled international multicentre clinical trial (CLEOPATRA), designed to evaluate efficacy and safety in 808 patients, which compared pertuzumab + trastuzumab + docetaxel (pertuzumab arm) with placebo + trastuzumab + docetaxel (control arm). Both progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) were analysed at two data cut-off points-May 2011 (median follow-up of 18 months) and May 2012 (median follow-up of 30 months). At both time points, PFS was significantly longer in the pertuzumab arm (18.5 months compared with 12.4 months in the control arm at the first data cut-off point and 18.7 versus 12.4 months at the second data cut-off point). Assessment of OS benefit suggested an improvement for patients in the pertuzumab arm with a strong trend towards an OS benefit at the second data cut-off point; however, due to the immaturity of the OS data, the magnitude of the OS benefit was uncertain. Importantly, cardiotoxicity was not increased in patients treated with a combination of pertuzumab + trastuzumab + docetaxel. The ERG's main concern with the clinical effectiveness data was the lack of mature OS data. An additional concern of the AC was that the majority of patients in the randomised controlled trial were trastuzumab naïve, which does not reflect current clinical practice. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) generated by the manufacturer's model are considered to be commercial in confidence data and therefore cannot be published. Nevertheless, the results of the manufacturer's probabilistic sensitivity analyses suggest that pertuzumab + trastuzumab + docetaxel has a 0 % probability of being cost effective at a willingness-to-pay of £30,000 per quality-adjusted life-year gained when compared with trastuzumab + docetaxel. The ERG believes that more realistic estimates of the ICERs are considerably higher, almost double those presented by the manufacturer. This is because the ERG believes that due to the manner in which the economic model is constructed, the additional survival benefit following disease progression that is generated for patients treated with pemetrexed + trastuzumab + docetaxel is unrealistic. At the time of writing, NICE had not made a final decision regarding this technology but had instead referred the issue of the assessment of technologies that are not effective at a zero price to their Decision Support Unit for advice.

Comparing the USA, UK and 17 Western countries' efficiency and effectiveness in reducing mortality

OBJECTIVES

To test the hypothesis that the USA healthcare system was superior to the NHS and 17 other Western countries in reducing feasible mortality rates over the period 1979-2005.

DESIGN

Economic inputs into healthcare, GDP health expenditure (GDPHE) were compared with clinical outputs, i.e. total 'adult' (15-74 years) and 'older' (55-74 years) mortality rates based upon three-year average mortality rates for 1979-81 vs. 2003-2005. A cost-effective ratio was calculated by dividing average GDPHE into reduced mortality rates over the period.

SETTING

Nineteen Western countries' mortality rates compared between 1979-2005.

PARTICIPANTS

Mortality of people by age and gender.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

A cost-effective ratio to measure efficiency and effectiveness of healthcare systems in reducing mortality rates. Chi-square tested any differences between the USA, UK and other Western countries.

RESULTS

INPUT

The USA had the highest current and average GDPHE; the UK was 10th highest but joint 16th overall, still below the Western countries' average. Output: Every country's mortality rate fell substantially; but 15 countries reduced their mortality rates significantly more than the US, while UK 'adult' and 'older' mortality rates fell significantly more than 12 other countries. Cost-effectiveness: The USA GDPHE: mortality rate ratio was 1:205 for 'adults' and 1:515 for 'older' people, 16 Western countries having bigger ratios than the US; the UK had second greatest ratios at 1:593 and 1:1595, respectively. The UK ratios were >20% larger than 14 other countries.

CONCLUSIONS

In cost-effective terms, i.e. economic input versus clinical output, the USA healthcare system was one of the least cost-effective in reducing mortality rates whereas the UK was one of the most cost-effective over the period.