Determination of malignant and invasive predictors in branch duct type intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms of the pancreas: a suggested scoring formula

Optimization of Endoscopic Ultrasound Characteristics in the Diagnosis of Malignant Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasm

OBJECTIVES

Endoscopic ultrasound (EUS) is an excellent diagnostic tool that provides high-resolution images of pancreatic cystic lesions. However, its role in the diagnosis of malignant intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN) remains limited and unclear. We aimed to determine the usefulness of this modality for such diagnosis.

METHODS

Overall, 246 patients who underwent EUS for IPMN after computed tomography (CT)/magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) from April 2018 to June 2021 were followed up until March 2022. We assessed the added value of performing EUS after CT or MRI for diagnosing malignant IPMN, using receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. Walls as thick as 2 mm were considered thickened in this study if they were highly uneven.

RESULTS

EUS clearly enhanced accuracy in identifying enhancing nodules and thickened walls. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve and corresponding 95% confidence intervals were 0.655 (0.549-0.760) and 0.566 (0.478-0.654) upon CT/MRI but 0.853 (0.763-0.942) and 0.725 (0.634-0.817) when observed using EUS. The combination of nodule size, thickened wall, and main duct size yielded the highest area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (0.944 [0.915-0.973]).

CONCLUSIONS

EUS more accurately detects malignant IPMN, as uneven wall thickening and certain nodules cannot be identified with CT/MRI.

Intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms of the pancreas: Uncommon imaging presentation, evolution and comparison of guidelines

Pancreatic cystic lesions are often asymptomatic, incidentally detected and include a range of entities with varying degrees of concern for malignancy. Among these, intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMN) are considered premalignant pancreatic lesions, with a broad pathological spectrum ranging from lesions without dysplasia, which can be managed conservatively, to malignant lesions that require surgical resection. The increasing use of CT and MRI has led to increased recognition of this entity incidentally, with branch-duct IPMN representing the most common subtype and the most challenging lesions in terms of patient management. The main imaging modality involved in diagnosis and surveillance of IPMN is MRI. Radiologists play an important role in the management of patients with IPMN, including lesion detection, characterization, follow-up and prognostication, allowing early MRI identification of features that are concerning for malignancy. The main aim of this pictorial review is to illustrate MRI features of IPMN and to discuss risk stratification scores based on different guidelines, with a main focus on branch-duct IPMN. The secondary aims include the presentation of common and uncommon imaging evolution of BD-IPMN as well as the discussion on current controversies on the appropriate management of IPMN.

A scoring system for predicting malignancy in intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms of the pancreas: a multicenter EUROPEAN validation

PURPOSE

A preoperative estimate of the risk of malignancy for intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMN) is important. The present study carries out an external validation of the Shin score in a European multicenter cohort.

METHODS

An observational multicenter European study from 2010 to 2015. All consecutive patients undergoing surgery for IPMN at 35 hospitals with histological-confirmed IPMN were included.

RESULTS

A total of 567 patients were included. The score was significantly associated with the presence of malignancy (p < 0.001). In all, 64% of the patients with benign IPMN had a Shin score < 3 and 57% of those with a diagnosis of malignancy had a score ≥ 3. The relative risk (RR) with a Shin score of 3 was 1.37 (95% CI: 1.07-1.77), with a sensitivity of 57.1% and specificity of 64.4%.

CONCLUSION

Patients with a Shin score ≤ 1 should undergo surveillance, while patients with a score ≥ 4 should undergo surgery. Treatment of patients with Shin scores of 2 or 3 should be individualized because these scores cannot accurately predict malignancy of IPMNs. This score should not be the only criterion and should be applied in accordance with agreed clinical guidelines.

Nomogram to predict malignancy in branch duct type intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms

Prediction of malignancy in branch duct (BD)-type intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (BD-IPMNs) is difficult. In this retrospective study, we showed the performance of imaging biomarker and biochemical biomarker in identifying the malignant BD-IPMNs. A total of 97 patients with pathological proved BD-IPMNs were included in this study. Imaging data were collected from magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Malignant BD-IPMNs were defined as those with high grade dysplasia and invasive carcinoma. There were 10 patients with malignant BD-IPMNs (10.3%). Significant difference was found in prevalence of mural nodule and tumor size >3.0 cm between patients with and without malignant BD-IPMNs (44.4% vs 3.1%, P < .01; 80.0% vs 33.3%, P < .01). Significant differences were observed in mural nodule and elevated carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA19-9) between patients with and without invasive carcinoma (40.0% vs 7.6, P = .05; 60% vs 15.3%, P = .04). Mural nodule and tumor size >3.0 cm were the independent associated factor for malignant BD-IPMNs. The odds ratio (OR) was 5.22 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.04-31.16) for mural nodule and was 6.80 (95% CI: 1.16-39.71) for cyst size >3.0 cm. The combined model of mural nodule and tumor size showed good performance in identifying malignant BD-IPMNs (area under the curve [AUC] = 0.82, 95%CI: 0.67-0.97). Our data show that mural nodule and cystic size can be used as predictor of malignancy in BD-IPMN. The predictive performance is acceptable.

Diagnostic value of serum carbohydrate antigen 19-9 in pancreatic cancer: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA19-9) is the most widely used serum biomarker for detecting pancreatic cancer (PC). Since early diagnosis is important for improving PC prognosis, a comprehensive understanding of the diagnostic performance of CA19-9 is critical. This study focused on comprehensive evaluation of the efficacy of CA19-9 in PC diagnosis. Literature research was based on the seven databases. Studies released from January 2002 to January 2022 focused on the efficacy of CA19-9 in the detection of PC were included. Summarized sensitivity, specificity, and sROC/accuracy of discrimination (AUC) were estimated. Potential publication bias was measured with Funnel plot and Egger's test. Meta-regression was performed to detect possible causes of heterogeneity. Subgroup analysis was used to assess the diagnostic efficacy of CA19-9 under different conditions. The study is registered on PROSPERO (CRD42021253861). Seventy-nine studies containing 20 991 participants who met the criteria were included. The pooled sensitivity, specificity, and AUC of CA19-9 in diagnose PC were 72% (95% CI, 71-73%), 86% (95% CI, 85-86%), and 0.8474 (95% CI, 0.8272-0.8676). Subgroup analysis suggested that the diagnostic efficiency of CA19-9 in studies with healthy controls was the highest, followed by intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm, in pancreatitis and diabetes were consistent with the overall result. Our analysis showed that serum CA19-9 had high and stable diagnostic efficacy for PC (not affected by diabetes). Subgroup analysis showed that serum CA19-9 yielded highest effectiveness in the diagnosis of pancreatic precancerous lesions, which indicated an irreplaceable clinical value in the early detection and warning value for PC.

Imaging Features for Predicting High-Grade Dysplasia or Malignancy in Branch Duct Type Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasm of the Pancreas: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

BACKGROUND

The consensus guidelines for branch-duct intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (BD-IPMN) of the pancreas are mostly based on imaging features. This study aimed to determine imaging features and their diagnostic accuracy for predicting high-grade dysplasia (HGD)/malignancy in BD-IPMN, including mixed type.

METHODS

The PubMed, Embase, and Cochrane databases were searched, and data were extracted from relevant studies. As the main diagnostic accuracy index, diagnostic odds ratios (DORs) of imaging features for diagnosing HGD/malignancy in BD-IPMNs were pooled using the random-effects model. A bivariate random-effects approach was used to construct summary receiver operating characteristic curves for sensitivity and specificity estimation.

RESULTS

The pooled DOR was the highest for the enhanced solid component/mural nodule (MN) (DOR, 12.21; 95 % confidence interval [CI], 6.14-24.27), followed by a main pancreatic duct (MPD) diameter of 10 mm or greater (DOR, 7.93; 95 % CI, 3.02-20.83), solid component (DOR, 4.85; 95 % CI, 2.49-9.42), lymphadenopathy (DOR, 4.84; 95 % CI, 1.11-21.06), MN (DOR, 4.48; 95 % CI, 3.15-6.39), an MPD diameter of 5 mm or greater (DOR, 3.69; 95 % CI, 2.62-5.19), abrupt change in MPD caliber with distal pancreatic atrophy (DOR, 2.65; 95 % CI, 1.66-4.24), thickened/enhancing walls (DOR, 2.38; 95 % CI, 1.57-3.60), and cyst size of 3 cm or larger (DOR, 1.98; 95 % CI, 1.48-2.64). The largest area under the curve (0.89 and 0.95, respectively) and high specificity (0.95 and 0.98, respectively) also were found for enhanced solid component/MN and an MPD diameter of 10 mm or greater, albeit with low sensitivity (0.38 and 0.14, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

The aforementioned imaging features could aid in predicting HGD/malignancy of BD-IPMN. Furthermore, enhanced solid component/MN and an MPD diameter of 10 mm or greater were the most important predictors of HGD/malignancy in BD-IPMN and should be considered as indications for surgery.

Intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN) of the pancreas: recommendations for Standardized Imaging and Reporting from the Society of Abdominal Radiology IPMN disease focused panel

There have been many publications detailing imaging features of malignant transformation of intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMN), management and recommendations for imaging follow-up of diagnosed or presumed IPMN. However, there is no consensus on several practical aspects of imaging IPMN that could serve as a clinical guide for radiologists and enable future data mining for research. These aspects include how to measure IPMN, define reporting terminology, standardize reporting and unify guidelines for surveillance. The Society of Abdominal Radiology (SAR) created multiple Disease-Focused Panels (DFP) comprised multidisciplinary panel members who focus on a particular disease, with the goal to develop ways for radiologists to improve patient care, education, and research. DFP members met to identify the current controversies and limitations of imaging pancreatic IPMN. This paper aims to provide a practical review of the key imaging characteristics of IPMN for trainees and practicing radiologists, to guide uniformity of performance and interpretation of surveillance imaging studies, and to improve communication with clinicians by providing a lexicon and reporting template based on the experience of the SAR-DFP panel members.

Radiomic nomogram based on MRI to predict grade of branching type intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms of the pancreas: a multicenter study

Background

Accurate diagnosis of high-grade branching type intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (BD-IPMNs) is challenging in clinical setting. We aimed to construct and validate a nomogram combining clinical characteristics and radiomic features for the preoperative prediction of low and high-grade in BD-IPMNs.

Methods

Two hundred and two patients from three medical centers were enrolled. The high-grade BD-IPMN group comprised patients with high-grade dysplasia and invasive carcinoma in BD-IPMN (n = 50). The training cohort comprised patients from the first medical center (n = 103), and the external independent validation cohorts comprised patients from the second and third medical centers (n = 48 and 51). Within 3 months prior to surgery, all patients were subjected to magnetic resonance examination. The volume of interest was delineated on T1-weighted (T1-w) imaging, T2-weighted (T2-w) imaging, and contrast-enhanced T1-weighted (CET1-w) imaging, respectively, on each tumor slice. Quantitative image features were extracted using MITK software (G.E.). The Mann-Whitney U test or independent-sample t-test, and LASSO regression, were applied for data dimension reduction, after which a radiomic signature was constructed for grade assessment. Based on the training cohort, we developed a combined nomogram model incorporating clinical variables and the radiomic signature. Decision curve analysis (DCA), a receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC), a calibration curve, and the area under the ROC curve (AUC) were used to evaluate the utility of the constructed model based on the external independent validation cohorts.

Results

To predict tumor grade, we developed a nine-feature-combined radiomic signature. For the radiomic signature, the AUC values of high-grade disease were 0.836 in the training cohort, 0.811 in external validation cohort 1, and 0.822 in external validation cohort 2. The CA19–9 level and main pancreatic duct size were identified as independent parameters of high-grade of BD-IPMNs using multivariate logistic regression analysis. The CA19–9 level and main pancreatic duct size were then used to construct the radiomic nomogram. Using the radiomic nomogram, the high-grade disease-associated AUC values were 0.903 (training cohort), 0.884 (external validation cohort 1), and 0.876 (external validation cohort 2). The clinical utility of the developed nomogram was verified using the calibration curve and DCA.

Conclusions

The developed radiomic nomogram model could effectively distinguish high-grade patients with BD-IPMNs preoperatively. This preoperative identification might improve treatment methods and promote personalized therapy in patients with BD-IPMNs.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s40644-021-00395-6.

Cytologic Analysis of Pancreatic Juice Increases Specificity of Detection of Malignant IPMN-A Systematic Review

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMNs) of the pancreas can progress to cancer. Biomarkers have been identified that were reported to increase the accuracy of identification of malignant lesions; we performed a systematic review of the accuracy of these markers.

METHODS

We performed a systematic review of published studies on biomarkers of malignant IPMNs by searching MEDLINE and Web of Science databases from January 2005 through December 2017. Our methods were developed based on the Meta-analysis Of Observational Studies in Epidemiology guidelines. Pooled sensitivity, specificity, receiver operating characteristic curves, and their respective areas under the curve (AUC) were calculated from groups of markers (cell-, protein-, or DNA-based) measured in samples collected before and after surgery. A hypothetical test model was developed to determine how to meaningfully amend the revised Fukuoka guidelines, focusing on increasing test specificity for patients with IPMNs that have worrisome features.

RESULTS

We collected data from 193 published studies, comprising 12,297 patients, that analyzed 7 preoperative and 21 postoperative markers of IPMNs. The 3 biomarkers that identified malignant IPMNs with the largest AUC values were pancreatic juice cytology (AUC, 0.84; sensitivity, 0.54; specificity, 0.91), serum protein carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (AUC, 0.81; sensitivity, 0.45; specificity, 0.90), and cyst fluid cytology (AUC, 0.82; sensitivity, 0.57; specificity, 0.84). A combination of cytologic and immunohistochemical analysis of MUC1 and MUC2 in pancreatic juice samples identified malignant IPMNs with the largest AUC and sensitivity values (AUC, 0.85; sensitivity, 0.85; specificity, 0.65). In a test model, inclusion of cytologic analysis of pancreatic juice in the guideline algorithm significantly increased the specificity of detection of malignant IPMNs.

CONCLUSIONS

In a systematic review, we found cytologic analysis of pancreatic juice to have the greatest effect in increasing the specificity of detection of malignant IPMNs. We propose addition of this test to the Fukuoka guidelines for assessment of patients with IPMNs with worrisome features.

Validation of a nomogram to predict the risk of cancer in patients with intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm and main duct dilatation of 10 mm or less

BACKGROUND

Intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN) is premalignant pancreatic lesion. International guidelines offer limited predictors of individual risk. A nomogram to predict individual IPMN malignancy risk was released, with good diagnostic performance based on a large cohort of Asian patients with IPMN. The present study validated a nomogram to predict malignancy risk and invasiveness of IPMN using both Eastern and Western cohorts.

METHODS

Clinicopathological and radiological data from patients who underwent pancreatic resection for IPMN at four centres each in Eastern and Western countries were collected. After excluding patients with missing data for at least one malignancy predictor in the nomogram (main pancreatic duct diameter, cyst size, presence of mural nodule, serum carcinoembryonic antigen and carbohydrate antigen (CA) 19-9 levels, and age).

RESULTS

In total, data from 393 patients who fit the criteria were analysed, of whom 265 were from Eastern and 128 from Western institutions. Although mean age, sex, log value of serum CA19-9 level, tumour location, main duct diameter, cyst size and presence of mural nodule differed between the Korean/Japanese, Eastern and Western cohorts, rates of malignancy and invasive cancer did not differ significantly. Areas under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve values for the nomogram predicting malignancy were 0·745 for Eastern, 0·856 for Western and 0·776 for combined cohorts; respective values for the nomogram predicting invasiveness were 0·736, 0·891 and 0·788.

CONCLUSIONS

External validation of the nomogram showed good performance in predicting cancer in both Eastern and Western patients with IPMN lesions.

The diagnosis and management of intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms of the pancreas: has progress been made?

Intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMN) of the pancreas are premalignant mucin-producing epithelial tumors that arise from the pancreatic ductal system. These cystic tumors represent 15-30% of cystic lesions of the pancreas [Basturk et al. in Am J Surg Pathol 39(12):1730-1741, 1; Ferrone et al. in Arch Surg (Chicago, Ill: 1960) 144(5):448-454, 2, Kosmahl et al. in Virchows Arch Int J Pathol 445(2):168-178, 3; Spinelli et al. in Ann Surg. 239(5):651-657, 4]. It is believed that IPMN can progress from low-grade dysplasia to high-grade dysplasia to invasive cancer, and this pathway of progression accounts for 20-30% of pancreatic cancer [Adsay et al. in Am J Surg Pathol 28(7):839-848, 5; Tanaka et al. in J Gastroenterol 40(7):669-675, 6; Wu et al. in Sci Transl Med 3(92):92ra66, 7]. Furthermore, it is also widely believed that IPMN represent a field defect of the pancreas in which the entire ductal system is at risk of developing invasive carcinoma, not only in the area of radiographically detectable IPMN, and thus the remaining gland should undergo surveillance after partial pancreatectomy [Salvia et al. in Ann Surg 239(5):678-685, 8; Izawa et al. in Cancer 92(7):1807-1817, 9; Yamaguchi and Tanaka in Jpn J Clin Oncol 41(7):836-840, 10]. Increasingly, surgeons are faced with the dilemma between recommending highly complex resections-that have significant morbidity and mortality-in patients who may have low-risk IPMN (low-grade dysplasia), or alternatively, recommending observation for those who could possibly be harboring a radiographically occult malignancy. Given the complexity of the management decisions for patients with IPMN, the purpose of this paper is to review the current literature and to provide a summary of how accurate we are currently with the identification of high-grade dysplasia or progression to carcinoma in patients who present with IPMN.

Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasm of the Pancreas as the Main Focus for Early Detection of Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma

For early detection of pancreatic cancer, interests are now focused on the detection of high-risk individuals to undergo screening examinations. Intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN) is a unique dual precursor of pancreatic cancer, characterized by progression to invasive cancer and the development of pancreatic adenocarcinoma either concomitantly (synchronous occurrence) or even after resection of IPMN (metachronous occurrence). Careful examination and surveillance of patients with IPMN may therefore lead to early detection of pancreatic cancer. By reviewing only reports describing detailed breakdown of the morphological types of IPMN and numbers of patients with noninvasive and invasive carcinoma in each type, the rough frequencies of noninvasive carcinoma in main duct IPMNs and branch duct IPMNs (BD-IPMNs) are 20% and 10%, respectively, and those of invasive carcinoma are 40% and 13%, respectively. Roughly 5% of all patients with IPMN had concomitant adenocarcinoma. The real frequency of carcinoma in BD-IPMNs would be far lower because most patients with small asymptomatic BD-IPMNs do not undergo resection. Intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm can be the main focus for early detection of pancreatic cancer to achieve favorable prognosis after surgical resection. The optimal protocol for surveillance and method for early detection of pancreatic cancer are to be determined.

Systematic review, meta-analysis, and a high-volume center experience supporting the new role of mural nodules proposed by the updated 2017 international guidelines on IPMN of the pancreas

BACKGROUND

Mural nodules (MNs) have a predominant role in the 2016 revision of the international guidelines on intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMN) of the pancreas. The aim of this study was to evaluate MNs as predictors of invasive cancer (iCa) or high-grade dysplasia (HGD) in IPMNs and to investigate the role of MN size in risk prediction.

METHODS

A PRISMA-compliant systematic review of the literature and meta-analysis on selected studies were conducted. The random effect model was adopted, and the pooled SMD (standardized mean difference) obtained. The surgical series of IPMNs at a single high-volume institution was reviewed.

RESULTS

This review included 70 studies and 2297 resected IPMNs. MNs have a positive predictive value for malignancy of 62.2%. The meta-analysis suggested that MN size has a considerable effect on predicting IPMNs with both iCa or HGD with a mean SMD of 0.79. All studies included in the meta-analysis used contrast-enhanced endosonography (CE-EUS) to assess MNs. Due to the heterogeneity of the proposed thresholds, no reliable MN size cut-off was identified. Of 317 IPMNs resected at our institution, 102 (32.1%) had a preoperative diagnosis of MN. Multivariate analysis showed that MN is the only independent predictor of iCa and HGD for all types of IPMNs.

CONCLUSION

MNs are reliable predictors of iCa and HGD in IPMNs as proposed by the 2016 IAP guidelines. CE-EUS seems to be the best tool for characterizing size and has the best accuracy for predicting malignancy. Further studies should determine potential MN dimensional cut-offs.

Predictive performance of factors associated with malignancy in intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasia of the pancreas

Background

Estimation of the risk of malignancy in intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasia (IPMN) of the pancreas is a clinical challenge. Several routinely used clinical factors form the basis of the current consensus guidelines. This study aimed to determine the predictive values of the most commonly assessed risk factors.

Methods

A meta-analysis of individual risk factors of malignancy in IPMN was performed. Contingency tables were derived from these data, and sensitivity, specificity, negative and positive predictive values, and diagnostic odds ratios (DOR) were determined. Hierarchical summary receiver operating characteristic (HSROC) curves for each factor were calculated and the respective area under the curve (AUC) was assessed.

Results

A total of 3443 studies were screened initially. Analysis of recent literature revealed 60 studies with 13 relevant risk factors including clinical, serological and radiological parameters. The largest area under the HSROC curve was found for weight loss (0·84) and jaundice/raised bilirubin level (0·80), followed by increased carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) (0·79) or carbohydrate antigen (CA) 19-9 (0·78) levels. The most sensitive factors were patient age (71 per cent) and mural nodules (65 per cent), and jaundice/raised bilirubin level (97 per cent) and increased CEA level (95 per cent) were most specific. None of the analysed factors reached a positive or negative level of prediction beyond 90 per cent.

Conclusion

None of the established criteria safely distinguishes malignant from non-malignant lesions.

Proposed Nomogram Predicting the Individual Risk of Malignancy in the Patients With Branch Duct Type Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasms of the Pancreas

OBJECTIVES

This study evaluated individual risks of malignancy and proposed a nomogram for predicting malignancy of branch duct type intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (BD-IPMNs) using the large database for IPMN.

BACKGROUND

Although consensus guidelines list several malignancy predicting factors in patients with BD-IPMN, those variables have different predictability and individual quantitative prediction of malignancy risk is limited.

METHODS

Clinicopathological factors predictive of malignancy were retrospectively analyzed in 2525 patients with biopsy proven BD-IPMN at 22 tertiary hospitals in Korea and Japan. The patients with main duct dilatation >10 mm and inaccurate information were excluded.

RESULTS

The study cohort consisted of 2258 patients. Malignant IPMNs were defined as those with high grade dysplasia and associated invasive carcinoma. Of 2258 patients, 986 (43.7%) had low, 443 (19.6%) had intermediate, 398 (17.6%) had high grade dysplasia, and 431 (19.1%) had invasive carcinoma. To construct and validate the nomogram, patients were randomly allocated into training and validation sets, with fixed ratios of benign and malignant lesions. Multiple logistic regression analysis resulted in five variables (cyst size, duct dilatation, mural nodule, serum CA19-9, and CEA) being selected to construct the nomogram. In the validation set, this nomogram showed excellent discrimination power through a 1000 times bootstrapped calibration test.

CONCLUSION

A nomogram predicting malignancy in patients with BD-IPMN was constructed using a logistic regression model. This nomogram may be useful in identifying patients at risk of malignancy and for selecting optimal treatment methods. The nomogram is freely available at http://statgen.snu.ac.kr/software/nomogramIPMN.

Intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm of the pancreas - epidemiology, risk factors, diagnosis, and management

Intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN) is one of the most common cystic neoplasms of the pancreas. It is a heterogeneous disease and can be divided into ductal types and morphological subtypes. The incidence of IPMN is increasing, likely due to the widespread use of cross-sectional imaging and a growing elderly population. IPMN poses an increasing demand on the health care system. Current guidelines provide indications for surgery and recommendations for surveillance, but management of IPMN is still challenging in routine clinical practice. In this article, we review current knowledge about IPMN and provide future directions for improving diagnosis and management.

Imaging modalities for characterising focal pancreatic lesions

BACKGROUND

Increasing numbers of incidental pancreatic lesions are being detected each year. Accurate characterisation of pancreatic lesions into benign, precancerous, and cancer masses is crucial in deciding whether to use treatment or surveillance. Distinguishing benign lesions from precancerous and cancerous lesions can prevent patients from undergoing unnecessary major surgery. Despite the importance of accurately classifying pancreatic lesions, there is no clear algorithm for management of focal pancreatic lesions.

OBJECTIVES

To determine and compare the diagnostic accuracy of various imaging modalities in detecting cancerous and precancerous lesions in people with focal pancreatic lesions.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched the CENTRAL, MEDLINE, Embase, and Science Citation Index until 19 July 2016. We searched the references of included studies to identify further studies. We did not restrict studies based on language or publication status, or whether data were collected prospectively or retrospectively.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We planned to include studies reporting cross-sectional information on the index test (CT (computed tomography), MRI (magnetic resonance imaging), PET (positron emission tomography), EUS (endoscopic ultrasound), EUS elastography, and EUS-guided biopsy or FNA (fine-needle aspiration)) and reference standard (confirmation of the nature of the lesion was obtained by histopathological examination of the entire lesion by surgical excision, or histopathological examination for confirmation of precancer or cancer by biopsy and clinical follow-up of at least six months in people with negative index tests) in people with pancreatic lesions irrespective of language or publication status or whether the data were collected prospectively or retrospectively.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two review authors independently searched the references to identify relevant studies and extracted the data. We planned to use the bivariate analysis to calculate the summary sensitivity and specificity with their 95% confidence intervals and the hierarchical summary receiver operating characteristic (HSROC) to compare the tests and assess heterogeneity, but used simpler models (such as univariate random-effects model and univariate fixed-effect model) for combining studies when appropriate because of the sparse data. We were unable to compare the diagnostic performance of the tests using formal statistical methods because of sparse data.

MAIN RESULTS

We included 54 studies involving a total of 3,196 participants evaluating the diagnostic accuracy of various index tests. In these 54 studies, eight different target conditions were identified with different final diagnoses constituting benign, precancerous, and cancerous lesions. None of the studies was of high methodological quality. None of the comparisons in which single studies were included was of sufficiently high methodological quality to warrant highlighting of the results. For differentiation of cancerous lesions from benign or precancerous lesions, we identified only one study per index test. The second analysis, of studies differentiating cancerous versus benign lesions, provided three tests in which meta-analysis could be performed. The sensitivities and specificities for diagnosing cancer were: EUS-FNA: sensitivity 0.79 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.07 to 1.00), specificity 1.00 (95% CI 0.91 to 1.00); EUS: sensitivity 0.95 (95% CI 0.84 to 0.99), specificity 0.53 (95% CI 0.31 to 0.74); PET: sensitivity 0.92 (95% CI 0.80 to 0.97), specificity 0.65 (95% CI 0.39 to 0.84). The third analysis, of studies differentiating precancerous or cancerous lesions from benign lesions, only provided one test (EUS-FNA) in which meta-analysis was performed. EUS-FNA had moderate sensitivity for diagnosing precancerous or cancerous lesions (sensitivity 0.73 (95% CI 0.01 to 1.00) and high specificity 0.94 (95% CI 0.15 to 1.00), the extremely wide confidence intervals reflecting the heterogeneity between the studies). The fourth analysis, of studies differentiating cancerous (invasive carcinoma) from precancerous (dysplasia) provided three tests in which meta-analysis was performed. The sensitivities and specificities for diagnosing invasive carcinoma were: CT: sensitivity 0.72 (95% CI 0.50 to 0.87), specificity 0.92 (95% CI 0.81 to 0.97); EUS: sensitivity 0.78 (95% CI 0.44 to 0.94), specificity 0.91 (95% CI 0.61 to 0.98); EUS-FNA: sensitivity 0.66 (95% CI 0.03 to 0.99), specificity 0.92 (95% CI 0.73 to 0.98). The fifth analysis, of studies differentiating cancerous (high-grade dysplasia or invasive carcinoma) versus precancerous (low- or intermediate-grade dysplasia) provided six tests in which meta-analysis was performed. The sensitivities and specificities for diagnosing cancer (high-grade dysplasia or invasive carcinoma) were: CT: sensitivity 0.87 (95% CI 0.00 to 1.00), specificity 0.96 (95% CI 0.00 to 1.00); EUS: sensitivity 0.86 (95% CI 0.74 to 0.92), specificity 0.91 (95% CI 0.83 to 0.96); EUS-FNA: sensitivity 0.47 (95% CI 0.24 to 0.70), specificity 0.91 (95% CI 0.32 to 1.00); EUS-FNA carcinoembryonic antigen 200 ng/mL: sensitivity 0.58 (95% CI 0.28 to 0.83), specificity 0.51 (95% CI 0.19 to 0.81); MRI: sensitivity 0.69 (95% CI 0.44 to 0.86), specificity 0.93 (95% CI 0.43 to 1.00); PET: sensitivity 0.90 (95% CI 0.79 to 0.96), specificity 0.94 (95% CI 0.81 to 0.99). The sixth analysis, of studies differentiating cancerous (invasive carcinoma) from precancerous (low-grade dysplasia) provided no tests in which meta-analysis was performed. The seventh analysis, of studies differentiating precancerous or cancerous (intermediate- or high-grade dysplasia or invasive carcinoma) from precancerous (low-grade dysplasia) provided two tests in which meta-analysis was performed. The sensitivity and specificity for diagnosing cancer were: CT: sensitivity 0.83 (95% CI 0.68 to 0.92), specificity 0.83 (95% CI 0.64 to 0.93) and MRI: sensitivity 0.80 (95% CI 0.58 to 0.92), specificity 0.81 (95% CI 0.53 to 0.95), respectively. The eighth analysis, of studies differentiating precancerous or cancerous (intermediate- or high-grade dysplasia or invasive carcinoma) from precancerous (low-grade dysplasia) or benign lesions provided no test in which meta-analysis was performed.There were no major alterations in the subgroup analysis of cystic pancreatic focal lesions (42 studies; 2086 participants). None of the included studies evaluated EUS elastography or sequential testing.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

We were unable to arrive at any firm conclusions because of the differences in the way that study authors classified focal pancreatic lesions into cancerous, precancerous, and benign lesions; the inclusion of few studies with wide confidence intervals for each comparison; poor methodological quality in the studies; and heterogeneity in the estimates within comparisons.

The Sendai and Fukuoka consensus criteria for the management of branch duct IPMN - A meta-analysis on their accuracy

INTRODUCTION

The risk of malignancy in branch duct intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasia of the pancreas (BD-IPMN) is controversially debated. An increasing number of studies report on outcomes using the Sendai or Fukuoka consensus criteria for treatment decision-making. The objective of this work was to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of the Sendai and Fukuoka criteria.

METHODS

We systematically reviewed studies on Sendai or Fukuoka criteria-guided management of BD-IPMN. Pooled sensitivity, specificity and diagnostic odds ratios as compound measures of diagnostic accuracy were calculated from studies matching the inclusion criteria. The meta-analysis was performed using a random effects model.

RESULTS

Fifteen studies with a total of 2710 patients were included. Twelve of these used the Sendai criteria. In these studies, 23% of Sendai-negative patients had a high grade dysplastic lesion or an invasive carcinoma in final histology. Pooled sensitivity was 56%, specificity was 74% and the diagnostic odds ratio for malignancy in Sendai-positive lesions was 7.45. When the results of follow-up examinations were included, diagnostic accuracy improved significantly (14.66, p < 0.001). Three studies were identified that used the Fukuoka criteria for decision making. Of 200 patients with Fukuoka-negative lesions who underwent surgery, 22 had a malignant lesion in final histology (11%). Pooled sensitivity was 83%, specificity was 53% and the diagnostic odds ratio was 8.76.

CONCLUSION

The Fukuoka criteria have considerably improved sensitivity but still lack adequate specificity. For further reduction of a potential surgical overtreatment of BD-IPMN, the development of criteria with an increased specificity is required.

Serum Carbohydrate Antigen 19-9 in Differential Diagnosis of Benign and Malignant Pancreatic Cystic Neoplasms: A Meta-Analysis

Background

Using serum carbohydrate antigen 19–9 (CA 19–9) in discriminating between benign and malignant pancreatic disease remains controversial. We aim to evaluate the diagnostic value of serum CA 19–9 in predicting malignant pancreatic cystic lesions.

Methods

Eligible studies were identified through searching MEDLINE and EMBASE prior to March 2016. Studies were assessed for quality using the Quality Assessment for Studies of Diagnostic Accuracy, 2nd version (QUADAS-2). Pooled sensitivity and specificity with 95% confidence interval (CI) were calculated using random-effects models. Summary receiver operator characteristic (SROC) curves and the area under curve (AUC) were performed.

Results

A total of thirteen studies including 1437 patients were enrolled in this meta-analysis. The pooled sensitivity and specificity were 0.47(95% CI: 0.35–0.59), and 0.88(95% CI: 0.86–0.91), respectively, and the AUC was 0.87(95% CI, 0.84–0.90). Meta-regression analysis showed that sample size, region and reference standards were not the main sources of heterogeneity.

Conclusions

Serum CA 19–9 has satisfying pooled specificity while poor pooled sensitivity for discriminating benign from malignant PCNs. It deserves to be widely used as complementary to other clinical diagnostic methods.

Development and Potential Utility of a New Scoring Formula for Prediction of Malignant Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasm of the Pancreas

OBJECTIVE

A simple system is needed to determine whether surgery is indicated in cases of intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN).

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective study to identify factors predictive of malignant IPMN and thus simplify the treatment decision-making process. Ninety-six consecutive patients treated surgically for IPMN at Kyorin University Hospital (Tokyo, Japan) between 1994 and 2014 were included. Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to identify preoperative factors predictive of malignancy. A simple scoring formula was derived from the regression equation.

RESULTS

Twenty-two (23%) of the IPMNs were malignant, and 74 (77%) were benign. Pancreatic head tumor, cyst diameter of 47 mm or greater, and mural nodule diameter of 9 mm or greater were identified as significant predictors of malignant IPMN. The following scoring formula was developed: 4 × tumor location (pancreatic head, 1; pancreatic body or tail, 0) + 3 × cyst diameter (≥47 mm, 1; <47 mm, 0) + 6 × mural nodule diameter (≥9 mm, 1; <9 mm, 0); the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.970. At a cutoff of 8 points, the diagnostic accuracy was excellent (sensitivity, 90.9%; specificity, 95.9%; accuracy, 94.8%).

CONCLUSIONS

Our scoring system has potential as a simple screening tool for the identification of malignant IPMN.

Pathologic Evaluation and Reporting of Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasms of the Pancreas and Other Tumoral Intraepithelial Neoplasms of Pancreatobiliary Tract: Recommendations of Verona Consensus Meeting

BACKGROUND

There are no established guidelines for pathologic diagnosis/reporting of intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMNs).

DESIGN

An international multidisciplinary group, brought together by the Verona Pancreas Group in Italy-2013, was tasked to devise recommendations.

RESULTS

(1) Crucial to rule out invasive carcinoma with extensive (if not complete) sampling. (2) Invasive component is to be documented in a full synoptic report including its size, type, grade, and stage. (3) The term "minimally invasive" should be avoided; instead, invasion size with stage and substaging of T1 (1a, b, c; ≤ 0.5, > 0.5-≤ 1, > 1 cm) is to be documented. (4) Largest diameter of the invasion, not the distance from the nearest duct, is to be used. (5) A category of "indeterminate/(suspicious) for invasion" is acceptable for rare cases. (6) The term "malignant" IPMN should be avoided. (7) The highest grade of dysplasia in the non-invasive component is to be documented separately. (8) Lesion size is to be correlated with imaging findings in cysts with rupture. (9) The main duct diameter and, if possible, its involvement are to be documented; however, it is not required to provide main versus branch duct classification in the resected tumor. (10) Subtyping as gastric/intestinal/pancreatobiliary/oncocytic/mixed is of value. (11) Frozen section is to be performed highly selectively, with appreciation of its shortcomings. (12) These principles also apply to other similar tumoral intraepithelial neoplasms (mucinous cystic neoplasms, intra-ampullary, and intra-biliary/cholecystic).

CONCLUSIONS

These recommendations will ensure proper communication of salient tumor characteristics to the management teams, accurate comparison of data between analyses, and development of more effective management algorithms.

What Is the Best Way to Identify Malignant Transformation Within Pancreatic IPMN: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analyses

OBJECTIVES

Pancreatic intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasias (IPMNs) represent 25% of all cystic neoplasms and are precursor lesions for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma. This study aims to identify the best imaging modality for detecting malignant transformation in IPMN, the sensitivity and specificity of risk features on imaging, and the usefulness of tumor markers in serum and cyst fluid to predict malignancy in IPMN.

METHODS

Databases were searched from November 2006 to March 2014. Pooled sensitivity and specificity of diagnostic techniques/imaging features of suspected malignancy in IPMN using a hierarchical summary receiver operator characteristic (HSROC) approach were performed.

RESULTS

A total of 467 eligible studies were identified, of which 51 studies met the inclusion criteria and 37 of these were incorporated into meta-analyses. The pooled sensitivity and specificity for risk features predictive of malignancy on computed tomography/magnetic resonance imaging were 0.809 and 0.762 respectively, and on positron emission tomography were 0.968 and 0.911. Mural nodule, cyst size, and main pancreatic duct dilation found on imaging had pooled sensitivity for prediction of malignancy of 0.690, 0.682, and 0.614, respectively, and specificity of 0.798, 0.574, and 0.687. Raised serum carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA19-9) levels yielded sensitivity of 0.380 and specificity of 0903. Combining parameters yielded a sensitivity of 0.743 and specificity of 0.906.

CONCLUSIONS

PET holds the most promise in identifying malignant transformation within an IPMN. Combining parameters increases sensitivity and specificity; the presence of mural nodule on imaging was the most sensitive whereas raised serum CA19-9 (>37 KU/l) was the most specific feature predictive of malignancy in IPMNs.

A Revised Classification System and Recommendations From the Baltimore Consensus Meeting for Neoplastic Precursor Lesions in the Pancreas

International experts met to discuss recent advances and to revise the 2004 recommendations for assessing and reporting precursor lesions to invasive carcinomas of the pancreas, including pancreatic intraepithelial neoplasia (PanIN), intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN), mucinous cystic neoplasm, and other lesions. Consensus recommendations include the following: (1) To improve concordance and to align with practical consequences, a 2-tiered system (low vs. high grade) is proposed for all precursor lesions, with the provision that the current PanIN-2 and neoplasms with intermediate-grade dysplasia now be categorized as low grade. Thus, "high-grade dysplasia" is to be reserved for only the uppermost end of the spectrum ("carcinoma in situ"-type lesions). (2) Current data indicate that PanIN of any grade at a margin of a resected pancreas with invasive carcinoma does not have prognostic implications; the clinical significance of dysplasia at a margin in a resected pancreas with IPMN lacking invasive carcinoma remains to be determined. (3) Intraductal lesions 0.5 to 1 cm can be either large PanINs or small IPMNs. The term "incipient IPMN" should be reserved for lesions in this size with intestinal or oncocytic papillae or GNAS mutations. (4) Measurement of the distance between an IPMN and invasive carcinoma and sampling of intervening tissue are recommended to assess concomitant versus associated status. Conceptually, concomitant invasive carcinoma (in contrast with the "associated" group) ought to be genetically distinct from an IPMN elsewhere in the gland. (5) "Intraductal spread of invasive carcinoma" (aka, "colonization") is recommended to describe lesions of invasive carcinoma invading back into and extending along the ductal system, which may morphologically mimic high-grade PanIN or even IPMN. (6) "Simple mucinous cyst" is recommended to describe cysts >1 cm having gastric-type flat mucinous lining at most minimal atypia without ovarian-type stroma to distinguish them from IPMN. (7) Human lesions resembling the acinar to ductal metaplasia and atypical flat lesions of genetically engineered mouse models exist and may reflect an alternate pathway of carcinogenesis; however, their biological significance requires further study. These revised recommendations are expected to improve our management and understanding of precursor lesions in the pancreas.

Pancreatic cystic neoplasms: Review of current knowledge, diagnostic challenges, and management options

Pancreatic cystic lesions are being detected with increasing frequency, largely due to advances in cross-sectional imaging. The most common neoplasms include serous cystadenomas, mucinous cystic neoplasms, intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms, solid pseudopapillary neoplasms, and cystic pancreatic endocrine neoplasms. Computed tomography (CT), magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), and endoscopic ultrasound (EUS) are currently used as imaging modalities. EUS-guided fine needle aspiration has proved to be a useful diagnostic tool, and enables an assessment of tumor markers, cytology, chemistries, and DNA analysis. Here, we review the current literature on pancreatic cystic neoplasms, including classification, diagnosis, treatment, and recommendations for surveillance. Data for this manuscript was acquired via searching the literature from inception to December 2014 on PubMed and Ovid MEDLINE.

Implications of imaging criteria for the management and treatment of intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms - benign versus malignant findings

OBJECTIVES

Evaluation of computed tomography (CT) and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) for differentiation of pancreatic intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN) subtypes based on objective imaging criteria.

METHODS

Fifty-eight patients with 60 histologically confirmed IPMNs were included in this retrospective study. Eighty-three imaging studies (CT,n = 42; MRI,n = 41) were analysed by three independent blinded observers (O1-O3), using established imaging criteria to assess likelihood of malignancy (-5, very likely benign; 5, very likely malignant) and histological subtype (i.e., low-grade (LGD), moderate-grade (MGD), high-grade dysplasia (HGD), early invasive carcinoma (IPMC), solid carcinoma (CA) arising from IPMN).

RESULTS

Forty-one benign (LGD IPMN,n = 20; MGD IPMN,n = 21) and 19 malignant (HGD IPMN,n = 3; IPMC,n = 6; solid CA,n = 10) IPMNs located in the main duct (n = 6), branch duct (n = 37), or both (n = 17) were evaluated. Overall accuracy of differentiation between benign and malignant IPMNs was 86/92 % (CT/MRI). Exclusion of overtly malignant cases (solid CA) resulted in overall accuracy of 83/90 % (CT/MRI). The presence of mural nodules and ductal lesion size ≥30 mm were significant indicators of malignancy (p = 0.02 and p < 0.001, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

Invasive IPMN can be identified with high confidence and sensitivity using CT and MRI. The diagnostic problem that remains is the accurate radiological differentiation of premalignant and non-invasive subtypes.

KEY POINTS

• CT and MRI can differentiate benign from malignant forms of IPMN. • Identifying (pre)malignant histological IPMN subtypes by CT and MRI is difficult. • Overall, diagnostic performance with MRI was slightly (not significantly) superior to CT.

Serum carcinoembryonic antigen and carbohydrate antigen 19-9 for prediction of malignancy and invasiveness in intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms of the pancreas: A meta-analysis

The clinical importance of intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMN) of the pancreas has been increasing due to the large number of newly diagnosed cases. A meta-analysis was used to assess the accuracy of serum carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) and carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA19-9) for the identification of malignant and invasive IPMN. A literature search of PubMed and Web of Knowledge was conducted. Studies included in the analysis addressed the diagnostic accuracy of serum CEA and CA19-9 and pooled estimates of sensitivity, specificity, positive- and negative-likelihood ratios (PLR and NLR), diagnostic odds ratio (DOR) and receiver operating characteristic curves were calculated using random-effects models. Predefined subgroup analysis was performed. Fifteen studies (published between 2001 and 2013) were analyzed, including a total of 1,629 patients. Pooled estimates of CEA in malignant and invasive IPNM prediction were: Pooled sensitivity, 18 and 18%; pooled specificity, 93 and 95%; PLR, 2.83 and 3.54; NLR, 0.89 and 0.89; and DOR, 3.35 and 3.6, respectively. Pooled estimates of CA19-9 in malignant and invasive IPMN prediction were: Pooled sensitivity, 40 and 52%; pooled specificity, 89 and 88%; PLR, 2.93 and 3.78; NLR, 0.74 and 0.6; and DOR, 4.34 and 6.33, respectively. In conclusion, serum CEA has low sensitivity and high specificity for malignant and invasive IPMN. Serum CA19-9 is a useful non-invasive preoperative tool for differentiating between invasive and benign IPMN and should be taken into account in the decision to perform surgery.

Imaging features to distinguish malignant and benign branch-duct type intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms of the pancreas: a meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

To systematically determine the imaging findings for distinguishing malignant and benign branch-duct type intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (BD-IPMNs), including mixed type, and their diagnostic value through meta-analysis of published studies.

BACKGROUND

Management of BD-IPMNs, including mixed type, largely relies on imaging findings. The current knowledge on imaging findings to distinguish malignant and benign BD-IPMNs has weak evidence and is mostly from scattered individual retrospective studies.

METHODS

Thorough literature search in Ovid-MEDLINE and EMBASE databases was conducted to identify studies where findings of computed tomography, magnetic resonance imaging, and endoscopic ultrasonography of BD-IPMNs with or without main pancreatic duct (MPD) dilatation were correlated with surgical/pathological findings. Review of 1128 article candidates, including full-text review of 102 articles, identified 23 eligible articles with a total of 1373 patients for meta-analysis. Dichotomous data regarding distinction between malignant and benign BD-IPMNs were pooled using random effects model to obtain the diagnostic odds ratios (DORs) and their 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of various individual imaging findings for diagnosing malignant BD-IPMN.

RESULTS

Presence of mural nodules revealed the highest pooled DOR (95% CI) of 6.0 (4.1-8.8) followed by MPD dilatation [3.4 (2.3-5.2)], thick septum/wall [unadjusted, 3.3 (1.5-6.9); publication bias-adjusted, 2.3 (0.9-5.5)], and cyst size greater than 3 cm [2.3 (1.5-3.5)]. Multilocularity and multiplicity of the cystic lesions did not reveal statistically significant association with malignancy.

CONCLUSIONS

Presence of mural nodules should be regarded highly suspicious for malignancy warranting a surgical excision whereas cyst size greater than 3 cm, MPD dilatation (5-9 mm), or thick septum/wall may better be managed by careful observation and/or further evaluation.

Validation of international consensus guidelines for the resection of branch duct-type intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms

Background

Classifications of intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN) remain ambiguous, especially for the mixed type. Factors predicting malignancy remain unclear. The aim of this study was to evaluate the usefulness of factors predicting malignancy in the new international consensus guidelines for resection of branch duct-type (BD)-IPMN and to compare them with those in the previous version.

Methods

A prospectively collected database of patients with biopsy-proven BD-IPMN was analysed to compare factors between the first and second consensus guidelines, particularly as predictors of malignancy.

Results

Of 350 patients with BD-IPMN, sensitivity (0·724) and balanced accuracy (0·751) of the second guidelines were superior to those (0·639 and 0·730) in the first version at the expense of slightly reduced specificity (0·779 versus 0·822 for the first version) by random forest models. Multiple logistic regression analysis showed that main pancreatic duct dilatation greater than 5 mm (hazard ratio (HR) 4·54, 95 per cent confidence interval 2·45 to 8·41; P &lt; 0·001), mural nodules (HR 6·27, 3·27 to 12·01; P &lt; 0·001) and carbohydrate antigen 19–9 level above 37 units/ml (HR 4·03, 1·83 to 8·90; P = 0·001) were independent predictors of BD-IPMN malignancy.

Conclusion

The new consensus guidelines provide better sensitivity, performance of factors predicting malignancy, and balanced accuracy in the diagnosis of BD-IPMN malignancy. Size alone was limited in predicting malignancy. Variability in clinical significance of the individual factors associated with a risk of malignancy indicates the need for a tailored approach in the management of patients with BD-IPMN.

Pancreatic cysts: etiology, diagnosis and management

Pancreatic cysts involve a wide spectrum of pathologies from post-inflammatory cysts to malignant neoplasms. Pancreatic pseudocysts, serous cystadenomas, mucinous cystadenomas, intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMNs) and solid pseudopapillary tumors occur most frequently. Differential diagnosis involves the following imaging investigations: transabdominal ultrasonography (TUS), contrast enhanced ultrasonography (CEUS) and endoscopic ultrasonography (EUS), computed tomography (CT), magnetic resonance (MR) and magnetic resonance cholangiopancretography (MRCP), endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancretography (ERCP). The cyst fluid cytology is performed in difficult differential diagnosis between pseudocysts and benign and potentially malignant or malignant tumors. Most frequently, viscosity, amylase, CEA and CA 19-9 levels are determined. Imaging findings should be correlated with cytology. The management depends on the cyst type and size. Small asymptomatic pseudocysts, serous cystadenomas and branchduct IPMNs should be carefully observed, whereas symptomatic large or uncertain serous cystadenomas and cystadenocarcinomas, mucinous cystadenomas and cystadenocarcinomas, main-duct IPMNs and large branch-duct IPMNs with malignant features, serous and mucinous cystadenocarcinomas, and solid pseudopapillary tumors require surgery. Pseudocysts are usually drained. Percutaneous / EUS-guided or surgical cyst drainage can be performed. Complicated and uncertain pseudocysts and cystic tumors need surgical resection. The type of surgery depends on cyst location and size and includes proximal, central, distal, total pancreatectomies and enucleation.

Cyst features and risk of malignancy in intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms of the pancreas: a meta-analysis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

International guidelines for the management of intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMNs) of the pancreas recommend surgical resection of those with specific characteristics. We performed a meta-analysis to evaluate the risk of malignancy associated with each of these features of IPMNs.

METHODS

We performed a comprehensive search of MEDLINE from January 1, 1996, to November 11, 2011, for studies that included any of the features mentioned in the consensus guidelines for surgical resection of main duct and branch duct IPMNs. Data were analyzed from 41 studies for the following features: cyst size greater than 3 cm, the presence of mural nodules, dilated main pancreatic duct, symptoms, and main duct vs branch duct IPMNs. Malignant IPMNs were defined as those with carcinoma in situ or more advanced histology. A separate meta-analysis was performed for each risk factor to calculate pooled odds ratios (ORs). A random-effects model was used, based on the assumption of variation among study populations.

RESULTS

The risks of malignancy associated with individual cyst features were as follows: cyst size greater than 3 cm (OR, 62.4; 95% confidence interval [CI], 30.8-126.3), presence of a mural nodule (OR, 9.3; 95% CI, 5.3-16.1), dilatation of the main pancreatic duct (OR, 7.27; 95% CI, 3.0-17.4), and main vs branch duct IPMN (OR, 4.7; 95% CI, 3.3-6.9). There was a moderate level of heterogeneity among studies (I(2) range, 34-67).

CONCLUSIONS

Based on a meta-analysis, cyst features proposed by the international guidelines for resection of IPMN were highly associated with malignancy. However, based on our findings, not all cyst features should be weighted equally when considering risk of malignancy; cyst size greater than 3 cm was associated most strongly with malignant IPMN.